Al Root
Remember Tesla's electric vehicle business? Investors don't focus on it these days, but it still matters. It's what makes Tesla money to invest in all of its artificial intelligence ambitions.
With the first quarter coming to a close, Wall Street is updating EV sales numbers. UBS analyst Joseph Spak projects Tesla will deliver 345,000 vehicles, up 2% from the 336,681 sold in the first quarter of 2025.
Growth is good, considering EV sales in the U.S. and China are slowing. In the U.S., buyers lost the $7,500 EV purchase tax credit at the end of September. In China, the market is relatively saturated. Electrified cars account for more than half of all new car sales.
Despite the growth, Spak's estimate is below his peers. Wall Street expects about 380,000 cars to be delivered in the first quarter. That estimate, however, has been coming down. It was closer to 400,000 cars at the end of 2025.
Spak's below consensus estimate doesn't appear to be shaking investor confidence. Shares of the electric vehicle maker were down 0.6% in premarket trading at $390.40 after a 1.6% fall in the previous session S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both down 0.1% ahead of the open.
Coming into Thursday trading, Tesla stock was down 13% year to date and up 74% over the past 12 months.
The large 12-month gain comes despite falling EV sales. Tesla delivered 1.64 million cars in 2025, down from 1.79 million in 2024. It was the second consecutive annual decline. Investors are focusing on AI, which they hope will lead to a new era of earnings growth for the company.
Tesla launched an AI-trained robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, and plans to expand it to nine cities in the first half of 2026. Tesla also plans to unveil a third generation of its Optimus humanoid robot in the coming months, according to CEO Elon Musk's comments on Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings conference call.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2026 07:27 ET (11:27 GMT)
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