The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1625 ET - As the Iran war trundles into a fourth week, a Friday selloff has left Treasury yields decisively higher into the weekend. The oil shock has whipsawed markets, with interest-rate futures markets now contemplating Fed hikes later this year--hard to fathom before war broke out. "Imagine telling someone a few months ago that by March 2026 the Fed would be priced for hikes," Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets writes. In new research, Deutsche Bank analysts project the headline consumer-price index could peak close to 4% this spring. The benchmark 10-year yield ends Friday at 4.39%, the highest day-end yield since last July and up from 4.284% a week ago. The 2-year yield finishes at 3.893%, versus 3.732% last Friday. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1622 ET - Ahead of a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Goldman Sachs CEO says there's a need for a better working relationship between the two economic powerhouses. "We believe there is a roadmap for more meaningful dialogue," David Solomon writes in a letter to shareholders. "Given how entwined they are, it is important that the US and China reach a new modus vivendi, not just for the next 12 months, but rather for the next 10 to 20 years." Solomon also calls for better economic collaboration between European countries following a European Union proposal to create a united market for financial services. "Until Europe's 27 countries begin to act as an economic union, their geopolitical leverage will be limited, and the world will be worse off for it," he writes. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1613 ET - Despite uncertainty around the economic impacts of the war in Iran, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says the bank still sees "the potential for a more constructive operating environment" in 2026. He highlights monetary easing, fiscal stimulus in developed economies, increased capital investment for artificial-intelligence, and a balanced regulatory regime in the U.S. "Put together, these are very powerful catalysts for people who own, transact, and invest in risk assets," Solomon writes in a letter to shareholders. He adds that Goldman expects strategic transactions to accelerate in 2026, although a drawn-out war could jeopardize sentiments around M&A. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1414 ET - Market-implied pricing indicates the Bank of Canada will lift interest rates three times this year, but policymakers in the country have significant scope to look through the recent spike in energy prices and are likely to remain on the sidelines through 2026, Desjardins' Royce Mendes says. He says Canada's rates market has been caught up in the front-end selloff in global sovereign debt markets, but conditions in Canada are different. Mendes says higher rates would needlessly deepen economic pain in Canada, and nearterm higher energy costs alone will act like a tax on many households and businesses. Moreover, the weight of energy in Canada's CPI basket is considerably lower than in most other OECD countries, he adds. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1312 ET - Roughly three in five U.S. residents believe advances in artificial intelligence will eliminate jobs and make it harder for people to afford homes, Redfin says. About 30% believe the opposite, that advances in AI will help boost the U.S. economy and help more people afford homes. Some estimates suggest up to 30% of U.S. jobs could be displaced by AI, with 80% of workers anticipated to be affected in some way. Uncertainty around the future of the labor market could also contribute to volatile mortgage rates, adding another hurdle for prospective homebuyers. Nearly two-thirds of U.S. residents believe tariffs will cause inflation and keep interest rates high. Three in 10 say tariffs will help boost the U.S. economy, helping more people afford to buy homes. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1148 ET - Friday trading has been challenging since the Iran war began, but today's late action in stocks could be even more volatile than usual. It's a quadruple witching day, when stock-index futures, stock index options, single stock options, and single stock futures all expire. The DJIA has climbed on each of the last seven quadruple witching days, according to Dow Jones Market Data. In 2024 and 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose on four of those days and fell on the other four. Quadruple witching can also lead to elevated trading volumes as investors close out positions. DJIA is off 0.6%, the S&P falls 0.9%and Nasdaq is down 1.2%. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1125 ET - Investors are selling off U.K. government bonds, or gilts, sharply and this highlights the vulnerability of the economy, Aberdeen's Matthew Amis says in a note. Markets are concerned that high energy costs from the Middle East war will push up U.K. inflation and cause the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Money markets now price in the possibility of three BOE rate rises in 2026, a major shift from two rate cuts priced in prior to the Middle East war, LSEG data show. Possible deescalation in the Middle East war could restore investor confidence and lead to demand for gilts, Amis says. Ten-year gilt yields jump to a near 18-year high of 5.022%, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1119 ET - Michelle Bowman, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, said her proposed modernization of bank regulation aims to push activity back into banks. After the Dodd-Frank law, she says "we've seen a lot of business that's traditional banking activity exit into the non bank space, and this is one way for us to recalibrate that," on Fox Business. America's biggest banks would be allowed to hold billions of dollars less in capital on their books under proposals unveiled Thursday, easing rules put in place after the 2008 financial crisis that were meant to help shield against meltdowns. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com; @jessica_coacci)
1046 ET - U.K. government bonds perform worse than their U.S., eurozone and Japanese counterparts as inflation concerns drive a selloff in sovereign bonds. The Middle East war, markets' sharp repricing of Bank of England interest-rate expectations, and worsening U.K. public finances are factors behind gilts' underperformance, XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields jump 17 basis points to a near 18-year high of 5.020%, LSEG data show. Markets fully price three BOE interest-rate rises in 2026, in sharp contrast to two rate cuts priced prior to the Middle East war, LSEG data show. Ten-year Bund yields climb 5.7bps to 3.016%, while 10-year Treasurys rise 8.5bps to 4.372%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1027 ET - A solid start to the year for retail sales in Canada may be evidence that last year's interest rate cuts, combined with the slight reduction in unemployment since mid-2025, is supporting an upturn in consumer sentiment and spending, CIBC Capital Markets' Andrew Grantham says. Retail trade was up in January and an advance estimate points to further strength in February, which Grantham says may result in the strongest gain in retail sales volumes since at least 4Q 2024. Looking forward, the economist says the recent jump in gasoline prices will flatter the headline nominal retail sales figures in the coming months, but the squeeze to disposable incomes is likely to restrict purchases of other products and subdue overall sales.(robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1021 ET - Decent Canadian retail sales figures for January and a positive early read for February highlight consumer resilience in the face of mounting headwinds for the Canadian economy, says Bank of Montreal's Shelly Kaushik. Still, with higher energy costs expected to take up a larger share of household budgets in the coming months, the economist says she will be watching to see how other spending components hold up. Retail sales volumes rose 1% on-month in January, the largest increase since August, and alongside an increase in hours worked are some of the few bright spots for the economy to start the year, Kaushik says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1021 ET - A 1.1% on-month rise in Canadian retail sales in January was weaker than expected but, along with an advance estimate for another gain in February, paints a more positive picture for household spending than late last year, Capital Economics' Bradley Saunders says. It suggests spending will be a tailwind for GDP growth this quarter, the economist says. Still, with gasoline prices headed for C$2 a liter, the hit to households' purchasing power could crush real consumption in the second quarter, he adds. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2026 16:25 ET (20:25 GMT)
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