With SpaceX debuting on public markets Fridayand rival AI giants entering the IPO pipeline, 2026 could become one of the most consequential years for capital markets in decades.
Just in the past couple of weeks, OpenAI confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering shortly after Anthropic did the same, setting the stage for a trio of megacap listings that may collectively command valuations in the trillions.
What’s less discussed is how such outsize capital requirements, whether from record-setting proceeds at SpaceX or massive new share issuance from AI lab IPOs, could draw considerable liquidity and investor attention toward these flagship offerings at the expense of other market opportunities.
For investors, the most important question isn’t just valuation, it’s precedent. They should remember that even the most anticipated megacap IPOs often experience sharp pullbacks after their initial surge.
Cerebras Systems has beenroughly chopped in half from $400 to $200in its first five weeks of trading. Early enthusiasm can quickly give way to volatility as valuation debates and profit-taking take hold. For that reason, patience is often rewarded, allowing the price discovery process to unfold before committing significant capital.
Let’s look at a few recent high-profile IPOs and how they traded after coming public. Reviewing several marquee listings offers useful perspective.
Astera Labs, a designer of high speed connectivity semiconductors, is up almost 300% year to date. The stock has been higher seven of the last 10 weeks and in early Friday’s trade, it was up another 19% this week.
On the weekly chart of Astera Labs, the early post-IPO action underscores how patience is often rewarded with new issues. The stock opened trading with four consecutive doji candles between March and April 2024, reflecting indecision. That uncertainty gave way to a steep 62% drawdown, from just below the very round par level to a low of $36 in August.
A doji in mid-August signaled stabilization, clearing the way for a powerful advance that carried into early 2025 before a bearish engulfing candle marked a near-term top in January. The pattern of candlestick reversals has been notable, repeatedly identifying inflection points.
A bullish engulfing candle defined the lows in April 2025, and a hammer off the very round $100 level in April 2026, filling a gap from July 2025, again marked a trough. On the upside, a bearish evening star in September 2025 flagged another important top, reinforcing how closely traders have respected these technical signals.
Weekly chart shows more than a 50% drawdown for four straight doji candles immediately after coming public.
Reddit, a communication services company that also went public in March 2024,has experienced similarly sharp swings, much like Astera Labs. The early post-IPO period was marked by heavy volatility and wide price discovery.
Looking at the weekly chart, the stock opened its first two weeks with a doji followed by a bearish shooting star, which quickly set a volatile tone as the price dropped from about $75 to $37 in just five weeks.
A bullish morning star formed in the last week of April 2024, helping to stabilize the decline, with subsequent lows marked by a doji in August 2024 and a bullish piercing line in April 2025. On the upside, a peak was signaled by a bearish dark cloud cover, which also coincided with the development of a rising wedge beginning in February 2025.
Weekly chart shows a rough start for stock before powerful rebound.
As with many new issues, patience after the first few weeks often proves rewarding, as the initial enthusiasm and forced flows subside and a more durable trend begins to take shape. I expect SpaceX to encounter a similar path to ALAB and RDDT. An initial surge followed by a few soft weeks, but long-term success mirroring those two, both of which were much higher a year after going public.
