Both Brent and WTI crude are on pace to log their largest one-day percentage gains since April
Oil prices were surging on Monday, with the global benchmark topping $82 a barrel after President Donald Trump reimposed the naval blockage on the Strait of Hormuz in response to the renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.
The president also claimed the U.S. would be "reimbursed" a 20% fee on the value of all cargo transported through the waterway in exchange for safe passage. The details of the initiative were not immediately clear.
Brent crude for September delivery (BRNU26) (BRN00), the global benchmark, was up 7.9% at $82.01 a barrel, after settling Friday at $76.01. The global benchmark on Monday is on pace for its largest one-day percentage gain since early April and the highest settlement value since June 15.
West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery (CLQ26) (CL.1) was up 7.4%, to $76.71 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark is on track for its best day since April 29, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Trump's renewed naval blockade on Monday threatens to escalate Middle East tensions, and comes as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz dwindled and Iran declared the waterway closed over the weekend.
However, market analysts think the broader financial market has good reason to take Trump's latest announcement with a grain of salt.
"Only last month U.S. authorities said that it was illegal for countries to charge tolls on international waterways, so this threat may disintegrate when it hits reality," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
But the heightened tensions in the Middle East still mean that those hoping for a quiet July are in for a shock, she added.
"The recent rally in crude oil is being driven by a recognition that the road to reopening Hormuz is going to be longer and bumpier than thought," said Colin Cieszynski, portfolio manager and chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. "This situation is clearly not all sunshine and rainbows, it's cold and foggy."
But despite "all of the saber-rattling," U.S. oil prices are still "closer to their trough than their peak" for the year. "So on a certain level, markets also appear to be taking the ongoing rhetoric in stride," he told MarketWatch on Monday.
On Sunday, the U.S. launched strikes on multiple Iranian military targets after Iran fired at commercial vessels trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, which objects to shipping lanes running through Oman's territorial waters, also claimed the waterway is closed to shipping traffic.
Kpler's MarineTraffic data service reported Monday that commercial crossings through the strait fell by around 52% over the weekend compared with earlier this month, with just 12 sanction crossings observed on Sunday.
The U.S.-Iran conflict has squeezed shipping traffic to a trickle. Before the war began in late February, more than 100 ships crossed the critical waterway each day.
In the view of Patrick Munnelly, strategist at Tickmill Group, Brent crude is still well below the $95-a-barrel level seen since the conflict started at the end of February, and levels that reached $100 per barrel at the end of May.
"That matters for the bond-market interpretation," he said. "If 10-year Treasury yields just north of 4.5% were consistent with oil above $100, they are not obviously too low with oil near $79, especially with some firmer U.S. employment signals still in the mix," Munnelly added.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y was up 5 basis points at 4.616% on Monday afternoon, according to FactSet data.
The sharp move higher in oil prices on Monday has U.S. traders recalibrating their interest-rate outlook for the rest of 2026. Fed-funds futures were pointing to a 41.2% chance of an interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve at this month's policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
"Likewise, higher oil prices means greater inflation risks and the BOE and the ECB are also likely to be watching out for any second round inflation effects from the latest bout of tension in the Middle East," Brooks told MarketWatch on Monday.
Myra P. Saefong, Barbara Kollmeyer and Mike Murphy contributed
-Isabel Wang
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2026 14:19 ET (18:19 GMT)
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