MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
No major economic events expected; trading update from Galp Energia
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded lower early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks were weaker; the dollar strengthened; Treasury yields were higher; while oil futures rose and gold fell.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a lower open in Europe, after the U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets and Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, deepening the standoff over control of the critical waterway.
Tit-for-tat exchanges between the two sides intensified over the weekend. The American military responded to Iranian attacks on shipping with strikes on a range of targets, and Tehran retaliated against several of Washington's regional allies, including Oman and Qatar.
The U.S.-Iran situation "remains fluid and is the primary tail risk for energy markets and broader sentiment," UOB Global Economics and Markets Research said.
Forex:
The dollar rose, driven by rising Mideast tensions. "The flare-up of military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran" is likely to cause the dollar to strengthen, CBA's Global Economic and Markets Research team said. The dollar is widely perceived to be a safe-haven currency.
Bonds:
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to face his first big call this month: whether to undo last year's rate cuts. Fed officials unanimously decided to leave interest rates unchanged last month, but a steadier economy and stubborn inflation mean that holding that consensus together will be trickier at the meeting scheduled for July 28-29.
The new chairman, who has an opportunity to steer that consensus when he testifies to Congress this week, hasn't tipped his hand. "If he has the luxury to wait, he will choose to," said James Egelhof, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.
Energy:
Oil prices were higher in Asian trading hours. "The recent oil price rally, driven by tanker attacks and renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, demonstrates how critical Hormuz flows remain for prices in the short term," said Goldman Sachs Research in a note.
Metals:
Gold fell, after renewed strikes in the Middle East. The fresh strikes will likely raise the prospect of the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer to combat stubbornly high inflation, ANZ Research analysts said in a note. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-interest-yielding assets such as gold.
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Iron weakened. Oversupply pressures are likely to intensify as supplies from Australia, Brazil and new sources increase, ANZ Research strategists said. This would limit room for iron-ore prices to rise further, they added. The underlying demand for iron ore looks fragile, with weak downstream steel consumption and restocking momentum already fading.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Warsh's First Big Call: Whether to Undo Last Year's Cuts
At his first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman last month, Kevin Warsh presided over a unanimous decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Consensus was easy, with little appetite on the policymaking committee to move.
Holding that consensus together will be trickier in the weeks ahead.
The Quarter-Trillion-Dollar Onslaught of AI Bonds Is Testing Investors' Limits
Wall Street is sending a message to tech companies engaged in a historic borrowing spree to fund investments in artificial-intelligence infrastructure: for pity's sake, please slow down.
Over the past several weeks, the investment-grade corporate bond market has struggled to absorb a combined $75 billion of bond issuance from Nvidia, SpaceX and Amazon.com. That marks a shift from earlier in the year, when investors were generally happy to hand money to so-called AI hyperscalers by any possible means.
U.S. and Iran Trade New Rounds of Attacks in Fight Over Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday, and Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as the two countries' standoff over control over the critical waterway deepens.
The U.S. military said late Sunday afternoon East Coast time it had launched new strikes against Iran, the third wave in 24 hours. The attacks, like previous rounds, were designed to degrade Iran's ability to launch attacks on commercial vessels transiting the strait and focused on areas near the strait and along the coast, according to a senior U.S. official.
Apple's 'Thermonuclear' Response to the OpenAI Threat
Steve Jobs declared "thermonuclear war" on Google's Android operating system in 2010, calling it a "stolen product." Now, his successor is going to battle against Apple's new and dangerous rival.
In one of his last acts as Apple's chief executive before successor John Ternus takes over, Tim Cook fired a missile at OpenAI. In a lawsuit filed Friday, Apple alleged that a senior OpenAI executive, who once sat atop Apple's own product design team, was involved in a monthslong campaign to steal Apple trade secrets.
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Expected Major Events for Monday
04:30/NED: May International trade
05:00/FIN: May Balance of Payments
06:00/ROM: Jun CPI
06:00/NOR: Jun External trade in goods
07:00/TUR: May Balance of Payments
16:59/GER: May Balance of Payments
16:59/AUT: Jul OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
23:01/UK: Jun BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2026 00:00 ET (04:00 GMT)
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