TradingKey-SpaceX (SPCX) will announce its results for the second quarter of 2026 after the market belts on August 4, Eastern Time, which is the first financial report after the company's listing in June.
Offered at $135 a share, SpaceX once rose to $225.64 after its listing, but it had fallen to $108.37 as of July 31, down more than 50% from its high and hitting a new low since its listing.
Since the share price has fallen below the issue price, and the lifting of the ban on large-scale restricted shares is closely followed,Morgan Stanley（MS) believes that SpaceX is ushering in the most severe market test since its listing. However, the bank still maintained an "overweight" rating on SpaceX and kept its price target at $300, arguing that the market is still significantly undervaluing the long-term value of the company's AI business.
Can First Earnings Report Prove Growth Is Still Accelerating
Wall Street now expects SpaceX to post a net loss of $0.23 per share on revenue of $6.88 billion in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley's forecast was slightly cautious, expecting revenue of about $6.75 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.35 per share. For comparison, the company posted a loss of $1.27 per share on revenue of $4.69 billion in the first quarter.
The market expects AI and Starlink to be the main sources of growth this quarter. Among them, AI business revenue may increase from $818 million in the first quarter to $2.18 billion, and launch service revenue is expected to increase by nearly 35% to $835 million. Revenue from the connectivity business, which includes Starlink, is expected to reach $3.83 billion, up 17.5% from the first quarter.
Starlink remains SpaceX's most stable revenue base. The company has reached 10.3 million consumer subscribers in the first quarter, covering personal broadband, aviation communications, mobile networks and government services. Morgan Stanley expects that Starlink consumer subscribers could grow to 12 million in the second quarter, with average monthly revenue per subscriber of about $65.5.
At the same time, Musk has also released more optimistic long-term signals recently.
On Aug. 1, he responded to a post on X about SpaceX's growth potential and said "few people understand this." The post predicts that as AI computing infrastructure accelerates expansion with Starlink, SpaceX may add equivalent toTeslaAnnualized revenue at current scale, or about $95 billion to $104 billion.
$300 Price Target Mainly Bets on AI Business
Morgan Stanley maintains its $300 price target despite a sharp pullback in SpaceX shares. At the current share price, this implies a potential upside of more than 170%.
In the bank's valuation model, the value of traditional space business is about $8 per share, Starlink and network connectivity business is about $128, X platform and Grok are about $12, and enterprise AI business reaches $152. That said, AI contributes more than half of SpaceX's target valuation, while the rocket launch business accounts for a tiny fraction.
This valuation reflects that Morgan Stanley is really betting on SpaceX's future expansion in enterprise AI, data centers and orbital computing, rather than current launch revenue. The long-term logic is that if Starship can achieve low cost, high frequency and complete reuse, SpaceX may gradually deploy computing facilities to orbit and use Starlink to provide data connections.
However, this price target is built on a number of long-term assumptions, including Starship's mature technology, continued growth in AI demand, and the commercialization of orbital data centers. Any project delays, cost overruns, or rising demand for financing could result in a significant downward revision of the valuation.
Lifting the ban on restricted shares of 100 billion dollars enlarges short-term risks
Two days after the release of the financial report, SpaceX will also usher in the lifting of the first round of restricted shares after listing. It is estimated that up to about 911.5 million shares can enter circulation from August 6, corresponding to a market value of about $100 billion at recent prices. Qualifying shares for trading does not mean they will all be sold, but early investors and employees have higher book returns, so the market is worried that profit-taking will exacerbate share price volatility.
In the case of the financial report and the pressure of lifting the ban coming at the same time, simply meeting market expectations may not be enough to stabilize the stock price. SpaceX needs to prove to investors that Starlink is still growing rapidly, AI investment has a clear path to monetization, and Starship's progress has not deviated significantly from plan.
Discussions about a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger may likewise appear on the conference call, but clear evidence is still missing for the news. Compared with merger rumors, management's outlook for cash flow, capital expenditure and three core businesses is the key to deciding whether SpaceX's share price can get rid of the post-listing downturn.
Link to the original
