OguzO Capitalist

Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter

    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·12-26

      AMD: It's Not too Late to Buy AMD

      Larry Ellison also says AI inference will be a much bigger market than training.All the big names at the frontiers of AI are saying the same thing: Inference will be huge. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ substantially enhanced its capabilities with the Groq deal, but let's not forget $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ is also well positioned for inference.Inference is memory-bound, not compute-bound. AMD's chiplet architecture is optimized for integrating more high-bandwidth memory at lower costs.AMD MI450 packs 432GB HBM4 vs Rubin's 288GB. This means larger models fit in fewer chips, reducing interconnect overhead and latency for inference workloads.OpenAI's 6GW deal with AMD for MI450 validates AMD's edge in inference.Despite
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      AMD: It's Not too Late to Buy AMD
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·12-25

      BN Made very Bullish Predictions about Energy in its 2026 Outlook

      $Brookfield Corp(BN)$ made very bullish predictions about energy in its 2026 outlook:"Global electricity demand from data centers will grow 17% annually by 2050. Massive infrastructure investment will be required to keep up with the demand.Global power investment is expected to reach $3.3 trillion in 2025, with over 60% directed toward renewables, storage, and grid optimization."They see grid infrastructure as the key bottleneck since more than 70% of global transmission lines are over 25 years old, and interconnection queues for new renewable projects are stretching close to a decade.This is where two investment themes stand out:- Grid infrastructure- Behind the meter arrangementsGrid will necessarily need to be upgraded, and transmission capacity
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      BN Made very Bullish Predictions about Energy in its 2026 Outlook
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·12-11

      Here are 10 Stocks that'll Benefit from Lower Rates

      The Fed has just cut interest rates again and signaled another rate cut next year.Here are 10 stocks that'll benefit from lower rates: 🧵1. $Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ - Leading second-look lending network.- Expanding into auto loans and BNPL.- Markdowns are normalizing.Analysts expect 17% growth next year, but it's too low in my opinion. It can do way better in a lower-rate environment.It's an asymmetric opportunity at 15x earnings, given that estimates are likely too low.Image2. $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ - Leading AI-powered lending marketplace.- Originations grew 80% YoY, reaching $2.9 billion.- It's trading at 15x 2027 earnings despite strong growth.It got sold off after Q3 results because inve
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      Here are 10 Stocks that'll Benefit from Lower Rates
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·12-09

      Here is My AMZN Investment Thesis

      $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is the cheapest mega-cap stock now.The stock has been flat since last December despite accelerating AWS growth and expanding profit margin.I think it can easily double from here in the next 5 years.Here is my AMZN investment thesis: 🧵1/ AMZN has a strong market position in three fast-growing markets:- Online shopping- Cloud computing - Digital advertisingIt is the market leader in cloud and e-commerce and the third largest digital advertiser in the world.All these segments are still growing fast.Image2/ Let's start with cloud computing, Amazon's cash cow.AMZN is the leader in the global cloud business with 29% market share, while MSFT is at 22% and $GOOG is at 13%.It looks like Amazon's market share is trending down here, but it
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      Here is My AMZN Investment Thesis
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·12-07

      GLD, INTC, ORCL,SPY& GEV Welcome Great Upward Momentum!

      Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ Never forget the Golden Chalice breakout. Image2. $Intel(INTC)$ I see Trump is a fan of using the anchored VWAP ⚓️Image3. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Comeback season?Image4.Turtles got back in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ yesterday at the open. 🐢The blue line maps the average move after this signal across the last five years.Image5. $GE Vernova Inc.(GEV)$ Time to run it back 🍋ImageFor SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited
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      GLD, INTC, ORCL,SPY& GEV Welcome Great Upward Momentum!
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·12-04

      Cost of using AI models has collapsed according to JP Morgan.

      While this is good for the diffusion of the technology, it doesn’t bode well for the foundational model providers as it signals commoditization.Remaining margins will be competed away once the model development flatlines.Value creation will shift to the application layer, and big AI labs supplying foundational models will be more like internet service providers.The technology itself will get occasional upgrades (like we had in telecom with 3G, 4G, 5G) but it won’t be exclusive to any model provider so it’ll remain as a commodity.I think their faith will be parallel to internet service providers. They’ll make massive investments and really change the world, but they won’t see high return on investment as their product will have already become a commodity when they decide to harvest.ImageFor
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      Cost of using AI models has collapsed according to JP Morgan.
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·12-03

      Big Shift in AI is Coming!

      1.We might get a big sell-off in the US market if Japan raises interest rates.They approved a stimulus because they finally have positive inflation so companies can invest and grow and people are better off spending then saving. They don’t want to lose it.But they are also considering raising rates because their Debt/GDP ratio is above 200% and the central bank can’t print money at no cost anymore as inflation isn’t 0.Thus, any increase in government bond yields skyrockets their interest payment and yields are surging as investors are pricing higher inflation due to stimulus and internal spending.They are stuck between a hard place and rock.If they raise rates, many investors who borrowed cheap in Japan and invested in the US will have to liquidate their positions and close their debt befo
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      Big Shift in AI is Coming!
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·11-13

      PLTR: Why the Burry’s PLTR short won’t work?

      I’ll tell you why Burry’s $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ short won’t work.Actually, no PLTR short will work soon.Those who are shorting the stock are the same idiots who shorted Bitcoin at $50k.They don’t understand the nature of it.PLTR isn’t about fundamentals or valuation, it’s an accord between the retail investors and the company.Retail trusted it to be a vehicle for the redistribution of wealth.They put their money in the stock, and never sold regardless of fundamentals, valuation etc, so the stock has consistently gone up.Management accepted this as they are also mavericks, they remained loyal to the accord by not doing something stupid like fraud etc.As the business also performed well, traders and institutions joined, creating immense
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      PLTR: Why the Burry’s PLTR short won’t work?
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·11-03

      AI Will Conquer the World!

      In the last two months:1) $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ signed $17 billion deal $Microsoft(MSFT)$ .2) $Alphabet(GOOG)$ signed $3.5 billion deal with $TeraWulf Inc.(WULF)$ .3) $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ signed $10 billion deal with $Microsoft(MSFT)$ .4) $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ signed $5.5 billion deal with $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ .Why are hyperscalers renting capacity rather than building it?They are trying to limit their risk if something goes wrong with AI or there happens to b
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      AI Will Conquer the World!
    • OguzO CapitalistOguzO Capitalist
      ·11-01

      Here is Why NVO is a 2x Opportunity Now

      1/ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ was once a market darling, now everybody hates it.Yet, growth is still strong, the oral Wegovy is coming this quarter, and it has the strongest pipeline in weight-loss drugs.Here is why NVO is a 2x opportunity now: 🧵2/ Let's set the stage first: What does NVO do?NVO is the global leader in diabetes treatment with a 33% market share.This market has three main segments:- Oral Anti-Diabetes drugs- Insulin- GLP-1NVO holds the leadership position in all these markets.Image3/ It currently controls 42% of the global insulin market.This has traditionally been Novo Nordisk's biggest business.However, the balance is shifting.Last year, insulin made up only 18% of the shares, while GLP-1 products made up 50% of all sales.Image4/ NVO
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      Here is Why NVO is a 2x Opportunity Now
       
       
       
       

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