To The Moon

Third-quarter earnings season is about to kick off. With the major indexes hovering near record highs, Wall Street is watching October’s reports more nervously than usual—option-skew data remind us that earnings-related swings are historically largest in October.A quick rewind to Q2: profit growth was dazzling. S&P 500 EPS rose 9.3 % y/y, a third straight positive quarter and the fastest pace since 2022, according to FactSet. Revenues advanced 5.8 % despite tariff noise and sticky inflation; 79 % of companies beat bottom-line estimates. AI-related cap-ex and booming cloud demand powered the mega-caps, and the “Magnificent 7” grew earnings far faster than the rest of the market, leaving concentration near record levels.Banks bounced thanks to stable net-interest margins and healthy fee

Although the U.S. government shutdown has had little impact on equity markets so far, October still carries a fair amount of uncertainty. Major indexes continue to hit new highs, but the VIX volatility index appears to be forming a bottoming pattern, rising in tandem with the market in recent sessions — a sign that investors are quietly hedging against potential turbulence ahead.All eyes are now on key September macroeconomic data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, PCE, and wage growth. If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Federal Reserve’s path toward further rate cuts may become contentious. Whether the Fed can deliver its planned three cuts totaling 75 basis points this year remains a central question. With only two FOMC meetings left (Oct. 29 and Dec. 10), any surprises — such as a

Although the U.S. government officially shut down on October 1, after Democrats and Republicans failed to agree on funding, the stock market showed little concern, posting solid gains on the first trading day of the month.Some investors wryly noted that “no data means no bad data.” The suspension of key economic releases such as jobs and CPI could temporarily remove negative catalysts from the market.Historically, government shutdowns have had limited market impact, typically lasting less than two weeks. While most investors remain unfazed, a few caution that if the Trump administration follows through on its threat to lay off large numbers of federal employees, or if the shutdown drags on longer than expected, the economic damage could escalate.Bank of America compiled historical data sho

Despite post-market volatility, $Netflix(NFLX)$ delivered an impressive earnings report, with both revenue and EPS surpassing expectations. global paid memberships growth exceeded forecasts, and the company raised its full-year revenue growth forecasts. The post-market fluctuations were more a result of high prior expectations. Despite the recent tech stock pullback, NFLX has still gained over 30% year-to-date.Q2 Key Financial Metrics:Quarterly Revenue: $9.56 billion, up 16.8% yoy, beating the estimate of $9.53 billion.Diluted EPS: $4.88, surpassing the expectation of $4.74.Operating Profit: $2.6 billion, vs the expectation of $2.43 billion, with an operating margin of 27.2%, slightly lower than last quarter's 28%.Global Paid Memberships: 278 mill

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Another year's Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, with Cook and Gates seen sitting in the audience. The moment when Buffett mistakenly called out "Charlie" was somewhat poignant. In the latest Berkshire Q1 holdings, approximately 75% of the fair value of its portfolio remains concentrated in American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Chevron, and Coca-Cola.It's worth noting that Berkshire Q1 still remained a net seller, with cash reserves reaching new highs. In Q1, Berkshire sold nearly $20 billion worth of stocks while only purchasing $2.7 billion, leading its portfolio value to decline from $354 billion at the end of last year to $336 billion.Although Apple remains Berkshire's largest holding, its stake value dropped from $174 billion at the end of last year to $135.4 billion. As of

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$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ resumed trading today, under ticker of SIVBQ $SVB Financial Group(SIVBQ)$

The stock market got off to a better start in October, after ending the prior month in a sea of red. However, the upcoming third-quarter earnings season is concerning.The U.S. Dollar index and the treasury note yield are at high levels, with unprecedented inflation. Those three extreme things are intertwined, which makes the market know that this earnings season will be terrible, but everyone has no idea how bad it is.Some companies have reported bad earnings in the past two weeks. FedEx, Nike, Micron Technology, CarMax and Carnival Cruises are all considered pessimistic signals in different sectors.Goldman Sachs noted that the past few weeks have seen a significant uptick in preannouncement activity. Large cap, bellwether stocks have provided investors with updates ahead of their regularl