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2021-06-29
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Xintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS
6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day首站顺利举行。现场，信天创投管理合伙人蒋宇捷带来了《为什么SaaS是价值投资的最佳赛道》的主题演讲。 “SaaS，是过去十年回报最高的美股资产。
Xintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS
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At the scene, Jiang Yujie, managing partner of Xintian Venture Capital, gave a keynote speech on \"Why SaaS is the best track for value investment\".</p><p>\"SaaS is the U.S. stock asset with the highest return in the past ten years.\" At the beginning of the speech, Jiang Yujie pointed out the high potential of the SaaS industry, \"From 2013 to now, the return of the entire SaaS index is as high as 970%.</p><p>If we make a horizontal comparison, in the past ten years, the most powerful FAANG portfolio in the U.S. stock market has created a return of 23 times, while the MT SAAS portfolio composed of Microsoft, Amazon and several other SaaS companies has achieved an astonishing return of 3000% in the past ten years. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e75d2a07faa8436f33f2edd438e7ed\" tg-width=\"2094\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why has the overall valuation level of the SaaS industry improved so much?</p><p>Jiang Yujie pointed out three reasons: \"The first is the average growth rate of SaaS. SaaS has maintained a growth rate of more than 25% in the past 7 or 8 years, almost unchanged. Secondly, because the funds invested in SaaS companies have grown exponentially, from 2010 to 2020, the funds invested in private cloud computing companies in the United States increased 12 times, reaching 180 billion US dollars last year, and the entry of large funds will bring about a significant increase in the valuation level of market value. Finally, leading SaaS companies have shown unprecedented growth endurance, such as Twilio. Although Wall Street thought its growth rate would be reduced to 30% in 2016, until now, its average growth rate is still 60%. There are still many such companies. \"</p><p>Such an astonishing sustained high growth rate is difficult for another industry to achieve. So what is the reason why SaaS can achieve such an impressive growth rate? Jiang Yujie believes that SaaS is the industrial revolution of the software industry: \"Every industrial revolution will redefine categories, redefine upstream, midstream and downstream, and open capabilities to other categories. Take Salesforce, the originator of SaaS, as an example. Salesforce first used cloud software hosting mode to redefine enterprise software. Second, it changed the traditional sales model and pricing model, skipping dealers and agents. The CRM products it developed are better than those of traditional manufacturers. Third, it launched the first PaaS, allowing these developers and SaaS vendors to build and run SaaS applications based on their platforms and open their capabilities to the market. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0797ed32a289f3b8dffd856114fb0d80\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">When talking about the business model of the SaaS industry, Jiang Yujie gave a good example with taxation. He believes that the best business model is tax collection, and SaaS is collecting taxes from the entire industry. In detail, compared with consumption, taxation is not transferred by personal will. As long as you exist, you have to pay taxes, and more importantly, the party who collects taxes has absolute pricing power. At present, all leading SaaS companies add up to collect taxes from all companies. For example, Salesforce and Adobe collect taxes from the marketing department, Veeva collects taxes from the medical industry, etc. From marketing to IT to finance to customer service, from construction, medical care to financial retail, all industries, all enterprises and all businesses have to pay software usage tax for using software. Moreover, the \"tax\" collected by SaaS is not just software tax. For example, Twilio will charge a usage fee of $0.0075 for sending a text message. These SaaS companies, which bind their business, charging model and customer business, not only collect software usage tax, but also include business tax.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddbf1eb7133abe4fb325ee46962f47c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Now that we know the potential of the SaaS industry, how can we find the optimal solution among tens of thousands of SaaS companies? Jiang Yujie gave an indicator and a rule. One indicator is NDR (Net Dollar retention), which refers to the value created by the same group of customers over time. Jiang Yujie analyzed 40 SaaS companies and found that their median NDR is 109%, which determines whether the flywheel of SaaS companies can rotate. For example, some excellent companies, such as snowflake, have an NDR of 158%. One rule is the 40% rule, which refers to the revenue growth rate of SaaS companies plus profit margins exceeding 40%. Through this rule, oligopoly companies in the market can be found.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ac706084b0b44aa05d06a9ac8a2dad\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, let's go back to investment. Under the substantial release of water by the Federal Reserve last year, the growth rate of M2 was as high as 25%. If investment cannot outperform the excess currency issuance, it is actually meaningless. Then how to outperform the M2? Jiang Yujie summed up five points: \"First, there must be good intrinsic value. What is good intrinsic value? The most fundamental factor to evaluate the value of a company's stock actually lies in the cash flow that the company can create in the future. The second is high growth, that is, it has a high growth rate. The third is a long duration. The fourth is the continuous increase in concentration. The fifth is to have a strong moat. The sixth is scarcity. I think a good SaaS company fully meets all the conditions and can maintain growth of more than 20% or 50% every year even without acquiring new customers, which tells us that this is the best way to fight inflation in our time. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9405f6d2cb606aca0453a8a98ee290c\" tg-width=\"2084\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"When it comes to investment strategies, there are several types of targets that we can choose: the first is the platform index, the second is the vertical industry leader, and the third is the dark horse. If your goal is to outperform inflation in the long run, I think you can buy platforms and indexes at any time. There are several reasons behind it. The first is the growth of the industry and the growth of the company's business. SaaS is the biggest trend in this era. Second, don't predict the market. Third, accept a reasonable valuation. A good company must have a high valuation. Fourth, don't want to make all the money. Good high-quality assets are very scarce. If it is not a good company, its return has no upper limit, but if you hesitate, you will miss the opportunity. So don't want to make all the money, if the company is good, you can trade time for space. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059f0959630053ec172e9dedf0205cc4\" tg-width=\"2080\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>To watch the live replay, please click:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata={\"liveId\":\"16226253307800\"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tiger's Seventh Anniversary: Meeting You Unexpectedly in the World</b></a><b></b></p><p>TIPS: The presentation starts at 120 minutes.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 12, the first stop of the 7th anniversary Open Day of Tiger Brokers, a well-known Internet brokerage, was successfully held. At the scene, Jiang Yujie, managing partner of Xintian Venture Capital, gave a keynote speech on \"Why SaaS is the best track for value investment\".</p><p>\"SaaS is the U.S. stock asset with the highest return in the past ten years.\" At the beginning of the speech, Jiang Yujie pointed out the high potential of the SaaS industry, \"From 2013 to now, the return of the entire SaaS index is as high as 970%.</p><p>If we make a horizontal comparison, in the past ten years, the most powerful FAANG portfolio in the U.S. stock market has created a return of 23 times, while the MT SAAS portfolio composed of Microsoft, Amazon and several other SaaS companies has achieved an astonishing return of 3000% in the past ten years. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e75d2a07faa8436f33f2edd438e7ed\" tg-width=\"2094\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why has the overall valuation level of the SaaS industry improved so much?</p><p>Jiang Yujie pointed out three reasons: \"The first is the average growth rate of SaaS. SaaS has maintained a growth rate of more than 25% in the past 7 or 8 years, almost unchanged. Secondly, because the funds invested in SaaS companies have grown exponentially, from 2010 to 2020, the funds invested in private cloud computing companies in the United States increased 12 times, reaching 180 billion US dollars last year, and the entry of large funds will bring about a significant increase in the valuation level of market value. Finally, leading SaaS companies have shown unprecedented growth endurance, such as Twilio. Although Wall Street thought its growth rate would be reduced to 30% in 2016, until now, its average growth rate is still 60%. There are still many such companies. \"</p><p>Such an astonishing sustained high growth rate is difficult for another industry to achieve. So what is the reason why SaaS can achieve such an impressive growth rate? Jiang Yujie believes that SaaS is the industrial revolution of the software industry: \"Every industrial revolution will redefine categories, redefine upstream, midstream and downstream, and open capabilities to other categories. Take Salesforce, the originator of SaaS, as an example. Salesforce first used cloud software hosting mode to redefine enterprise software. Second, it changed the traditional sales model and pricing model, skipping dealers and agents. The CRM products it developed are better than those of traditional manufacturers. Third, it launched the first PaaS, allowing these developers and SaaS vendors to build and run SaaS applications based on their platforms and open their capabilities to the market. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0797ed32a289f3b8dffd856114fb0d80\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">When talking about the business model of the SaaS industry, Jiang Yujie gave a good example with taxation. He believes that the best business model is tax collection, and SaaS is collecting taxes from the entire industry. In detail, compared with consumption, taxation is not transferred by personal will. As long as you exist, you have to pay taxes, and more importantly, the party who collects taxes has absolute pricing power. At present, all leading SaaS companies add up to collect taxes from all companies. For example, Salesforce and Adobe collect taxes from the marketing department, Veeva collects taxes from the medical industry, etc. From marketing to IT to finance to customer service, from construction, medical care to financial retail, all industries, all enterprises and all businesses have to pay software usage tax for using software. Moreover, the \"tax\" collected by SaaS is not just software tax. For example, Twilio will charge a usage fee of $0.0075 for sending a text message. These SaaS companies, which bind their business, charging model and customer business, not only collect software usage tax, but also include business tax.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddbf1eb7133abe4fb325ee46962f47c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Now that we know the potential of the SaaS industry, how can we find the optimal solution among tens of thousands of SaaS companies? Jiang Yujie gave an indicator and a rule. One indicator is NDR (Net Dollar retention), which refers to the value created by the same group of customers over time. Jiang Yujie analyzed 40 SaaS companies and found that their median NDR is 109%, which determines whether the flywheel of SaaS companies can rotate. For example, some excellent companies, such as snowflake, have an NDR of 158%. One rule is the 40% rule, which refers to the revenue growth rate of SaaS companies plus profit margins exceeding 40%. Through this rule, oligopoly companies in the market can be found.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ac706084b0b44aa05d06a9ac8a2dad\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, let's go back to investment. Under the substantial release of water by the Federal Reserve last year, the growth rate of M2 was as high as 25%. If investment cannot outperform the excess currency issuance, it is actually meaningless. Then how to outperform the M2? Jiang Yujie summed up five points: \"First, there must be good intrinsic value. What is good intrinsic value? The most fundamental factor to evaluate the value of a company's stock actually lies in the cash flow that the company can create in the future. The second is high growth, that is, it has a high growth rate. The third is a long duration. The fourth is the continuous increase in concentration. The fifth is to have a strong moat. The sixth is scarcity. I think a good SaaS company fully meets all the conditions and can maintain growth of more than 20% or 50% every year even without acquiring new customers, which tells us that this is the best way to fight inflation in our time. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9405f6d2cb606aca0453a8a98ee290c\" tg-width=\"2084\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"When it comes to investment strategies, there are several types of targets that we can choose: the first is the platform index, the second is the vertical industry leader, and the third is the dark horse. If your goal is to outperform inflation in the long run, I think you can buy platforms and indexes at any time. There are several reasons behind it. The first is the growth of the industry and the growth of the company's business. SaaS is the biggest trend in this era. Second, don't predict the market. Third, accept a reasonable valuation. A good company must have a high valuation. Fourth, don't want to make all the money. Good high-quality assets are very scarce. If it is not a good company, its return has no upper limit, but if you hesitate, you will miss the opportunity. So don't want to make all the money, if the company is good, you can trade time for space. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059f0959630053ec172e9dedf0205cc4\" tg-width=\"2080\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>To watch the live replay, please click:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata={\"liveId\":\"16226253307800\"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tiger's Seventh Anniversary: Meeting You Unexpectedly in the World</b></a><b></b></p><p>TIPS: The presentation starts at 120 minutes.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f77d4ae4394b059ac188ad4f954f28","relate_stocks":{"OKTA":"Okta Inc.","NOW":"ServiceNow","SNOW":"Snowflake","VEEV":"Veeva Systems Inc.","NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","ADBE":"Adobe","TIGR":"老虎证券","TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125343885","content_text":"6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day首站顺利举行。现场，信天创投管理合伙人蒋宇捷带来了《为什么SaaS是价值投资的最佳赛道》的主题演讲。\n“SaaS，是过去十年回报最高的美股资产。”在演讲的开头，蒋宇捷就点出了SaaS行业的高潜力，“从2013年到现在，整个SaaS指数的回报高达970%。\n如果进行横线对比，在过去十年，美股最厉害FAANG组合创造了23倍的回报，而由微软、亚马逊及另外几家SaaS构成的MT SAAS组合，过去十年的收益达到了惊人的3000%。”为什么SaaS行业整体的估值水平有这么大的提升？\n蒋宇捷指出了三个原因：“首先是SaaS的平均增速，SaaS在过去7、8年间保持在25%以上增速，几乎保持不变。其次是因为投到SaaS公司的资金成指数型增长，在2010到2020年间，投向美国私有云计算公司的资金增长了12倍，去年高达1800亿美金，而大资金的进入，就会带来市值的估值水平明显提升。最后就是领先的SaaS公司展现出前所未有的增长耐力，比如Twilio，虽然华尔街在2016年认为它的增速会降低到30%，但直到现在，它的平均增速还是60%，这样的公司还有很多。”\n如此惊人的持续性高增速，换做另外一个行业都很难做到，那SaaS能实现如此亮眼增速的原因是什么？蒋宇捷认为SaaS是软件业的工业革命：“每次工业革命都会重新定义品类、重新定义上中下游以及把能力开放给其他门类。而拿SaaS的鼻祖Salesforce为例，Salesforce最开始用云端的软件托管模式，重新定义了企业软件，第二，它改变了传统的销售模式和定价模式，跳过了经销商、代理商，它研发出来的CRM产品比传统厂商的更好用。第三，它推出了第一个PaaS，让这些研发者、SaaS厂商能够基于他们平台，构建和运行SaaS应用，把能力开放给市场。”而聊起SaaS行业的商业模式，蒋宇捷用税收举了一个很好的例子，他认为最好的商业模式是收税，而SaaS在向全行业收税。详细来说，与消费相比，税收不以个人的意志作为转移，只要你存在就要交税，而且更重要的是，收税的一方拥有绝对的定价权。而目前，所有头部的SaaS公司加起来，就是面向所有公司收税。比如Salesforce、Adobe收的是营销部门的税，Veeva收的是医疗行业的税等等。从营销到IT到财务到客服，从建筑、医疗到金融零售，所有的行业，所有的企业，所有的业务都要为使用软件付出软件的使用税。而且，SaaS收的“税”并不只是软件税，比如Twilio，发送一条短信会收取0.0075美元的使用费。这些把业务、收费模式和客户业务绑定的SaaS公司，不仅仅是收取软件的使用税，还包括业务税。那既然知道了SaaS行业的潜力，又该怎么在数以万计的SaaS公司中找到最优解呢？蒋宇捷给出了一个指标和一个法则，一个指标是NDR（Net Dollar retention），指的是随着时间推移，同一批客户所创造的价值。蒋宇捷将40家SaaS的公司做了分析，发现它们NDR中位数是109%，这决定了SaaS公司的飞轮能不能转得起来，像一些优秀的企业，比如snowflake的NDR是158%。而一个法则就是40%法则，指的是SaaS公司营收的增速加上利润率超过40%，通过这个法则，可以找到市场当中的寡头企业。最后再回到投资，在去年美联储的大幅放水之下，M2的增速高达25%，如果投资没有办法跑赢货币超发，其实就没有任何意义。那该如何跑赢M2？蒋宇捷总结了五点：“第一，要有好的内在价值，什么是好的内在价值？最根本的评估企业股票价值的要素其实就在于这个公司未来能够创造的现金流。第二是高增长，就是具有很高的增速。第三是持续时间长。第四是集中度不断提升。第五是具有强大的护城河。第六是稀缺。我认为好的SaaS公司完全满足所有的条件，即便不获得新客户，每年都可以保持超过20%、50%的增长，这告诉我们，这是我们这个时代对抗通胀最好的办法。”“而具体到投资策略上，我们可以选择的标的有几类：第一是平台指数，第二是垂直行业龙头，第三是黑马。如果你的目标是长期跑赢通胀，我觉得你可以买平台和指数，任何时候都可以买，背后有几点原因。第一是行业的增长和公司业务的增长，SaaS化就是这个时代最大的趋势。第二，不要预测市场，第三是接受合理估值，好的公司一定是估值高的。第四，不要想赚到所有的钱，好的优质资产是非常稀缺的，如果不是好公司，它的回报是没有上限的，但是犹豫的话会错失良机。所以不要想赚到所有的钱，如果公司很好，你可以用时间换取空间。”观看直播回放请点击：老虎七周年：在全球与你不期而遇\nTIPS：该演讲从120分钟开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9,"NOW":0.9,"TWLO":0.9,"OKTA":0.9,"TIGR":0.9,"VEEV":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}