Profile - To The Moon

Ceava

希

Posts · 602Posts · 602
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- CeavaCeava
  ·2023-07-14
  $Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
  1.08K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- CeavaCeava
  ·2020-03-01
  ???
  Last night they sold everything and surrendered collectively
  这看上去就像是世界末日，所有的投资者都缴械投降了。
  Last night they sold everything and surrendered collectively
  1.37K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3475537229478550","uuid":"3475537229478550","gmtCreate":1512982838499,"gmtModify":1647482349478,"name":"Ceava","pinyin":"ceava","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"希","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9e8543510ff9ad81204bbd7ea41e9d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":140,"headSize":95,"tweetSize":602,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":2,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.68%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.36%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":197712877133920,"gmtCreate":1689299584432,"gmtModify":1689299584483,"author":{"id":"3475537229478550","authorId":"3475537229478550","name":"Ceava","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9e8543510ff9ad81204bbd7ea41e9d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3475537229478550","authorIdStr":"3475537229478550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197712877133920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":983051629,"gmtCreate":1583003425061,"gmtModify":1705289316295,"author":{"id":"3475537229478550","authorId":"3475537229478550","name":"Ceava","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9e8543510ff9ad81204bbd7ea41e9d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3475537229478550","authorIdStr":"3475537229478550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/983051629","repostId":"2015382300","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2015382300","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1582976276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2015382300?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-02-29 19:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night they sold everything and surrendered collectively","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2015382300","media":"格隆汇","summary":"这看上去就像是世界末日，所有的投资者都缴械投降了。","content":"<p><html><body>Author | Hanyangshu</p><p><span>Data Support<span>|</span>Pythagorean Big Data</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-dec7af23-afc8-40e1-8cdc-b11f1ba86330.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>1</span></p><p><strong><span>They threw everything away</span></strong></p><p><span>Yesterday Friday, from day to night again, the world was dark. By 10:30 p.m., Leek's last hope, the boss US stock market began to perform.</span></p><p><span>But the initial performance of U.S. stocks was trembling. Last night, I felt that overseas investors were throwing everything.</span></p><p><span>They sell tech stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It once fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>At one point it fell nearly 10%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/891e1-de4a083b-bb1d-4595-80a0-0503de9e510d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/33607-a9e470fe-16bd-4b9b-b5b4-34eb04ae713e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They sell financial stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Down 4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f2c5b-c6847299-f1fe-4eef-b3ff-22e22c92133e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They throw away manufacturing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>It fell 3.4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/410d1-75b1decb-175c-4af4-a90b-cd7abaf2909f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They continue to throw oil,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Fall another 4 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>It fell 3.6%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/965b1-b8395728-a8dc-405a-9c0c-91f824beee50.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They throw<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>These consumer service stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c5fd3-f4c2c32b-46df-4c85-a4af-540d7194880d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>If it is not wrong to sell these stocks, they still sold them<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, tossed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>, the stock prices of the two daily consumption giants once fell by more than 6%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/9ce09-1ccc6fd6-32ed-4165-838f-a3ab34b5dd86.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They didn't stop there, they began to sell targets that once seemed to benefit, such as Gilead, and mask stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c2742-61a2218e-b5c0-4948-b1ca-df58f7807539.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>It seems that they haven't sold enough to relieve their anger. They even sold gold. Last night, gold fell 5%, the biggest one-day drop since 2011.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/525d1-6d508578-94da-4d9c-a8ad-7e5792fc803a.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In a word, they were selling almost everything last night except Treasury Bond.</span><span>In the face of the epidemic, they have become extremely humble and are even willing to accept a 10-year U.S. bond with a yield of only 1.12%.</span><span>If I remember correctly, this is the lowest yield in the history of the 10-year U.S. Treasury.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a4a02-ef2354c7-c301-42d6-be50-a3ad2a3d5dba.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>It looked like the end of the world, and all investors surrendered.</span></strong></p><p><span>2</span></p><p><strong><span>There is blood in the Street</span></strong></p><p><span>The market has not been calm in recent years. From 2016 to now, except for 2017, there have been such moments every other year.</span></p><p><span>Brexit at the end of June 2016,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>It once fell by 12 points. In November 2016, Trump was unexpectedly elected, and the global market was once dumbfounded. In 2018, Moutai came out in the third quarter, and Baima was now falling by the limit. There was also a series of negative news from China and the United States on August 6 last year.</span></p><p><strong><span>In the face of these events, investors raise their hands and surrender, and then, the opportunity to buy the bottom often comes.</span></strong></p><p><span>This bargain-hunting opportunity reminds me of Templeton. Templeton likes to buy when Wall Street is full of blood. The original words are<strong>there is blood in the street.</strong></span><span>But I didn't find out how he explained what a bloody market was.</span></p><p><span>My own understanding is that,<strong>The river of blood means that emotions have completely taken over the stock price, and emotions are vented to the extreme. Due to the panic caused by emotions, the market sells almost all assets, whether good or bad, influential or uninfluential.</strong></span></p><p><strong><span>This sign existed in the US stock market last night.</span></strong></p><p><span>In fact, when we look at the subsequent performance of U.S. stocks, many stocks have recovered their lost ground. Among the three major indexes, the Nasdaq turned red, and the losses of the Dow and S&P 500 have also narrowed significantly.</span></p><p><span>What is particularly interesting is that the mask stocks failed to recover last night, and Gilead still fell by 4 points. However, the cruise ship stocks that were hit the most by the epidemic were the winners last night. Carnival, the parent company of Diamond, rose sharply. 5 points, and another cruise company Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH.N) rose 7 points.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/3f25f-2bddeeb7-45b3-4aef-92fa-a99fec5d55fc.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/8c22e-4da41835-4ccd-49bf-a53d-c5f1d3686154.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/aaf6f-e65c65a3-04ba-4eef-a50b-d83a7bcbfdea.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>The message is that,</span></strong><span><strong>Funds close their own positions and make profits and leave, with long positions turning short and short positions turning long.</strong></span><strong><span>From a financial perspective, this round of panic selling caused by the overseas epidemic has come to an end for the time being.</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>At least in the short term, I think there will be a good rebound opportunity for the stock market.</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, I believe it is not an easy decision for most people to buy the bottom at this time.</span><span>This is because first, when the market is blooding into a river, my blood is also flowing on the ground. Unless my character is so good that I escape, my blood is also flowing at this point in time.</span><span>This loss will make people feel hard.</span></p><p><strong><span>The second point is that the epidemic is still going on, and as long as you dare to imagine, any kind of doomsday scene can be depicted.</span></strong></p><p><span>I won't talk much about the first point, because how to solve this discomfort is a matter of personal character.</span><span>The second point can be talked about more.</span></p><p><span>3</span><strong></strong></p><p><strong><span>Will U.S. stocks crash?</span></strong></p><p><span>The second point is that if you think about it carefully, the real orientation is actually about whether the US stock market will collapse.</span></p><p><strong><span>When new leeks are faced with the uncertainty of the epidemic, when faced with this straight-line decline, they are afraid for sure, but we old leeks know that no matter how we describe its horror, it is always a short-term disturbance, it will eventually pass.</span></strong></p><p><span>But what makes us uneasy is that it happened at the top of the ten-year bull market in the U.S. stock market. On February 19, the U.S. stock market hit a record high, and then fell by 13 or 14 points in a week.</span><strong><span>The leek and the sickle are changed in one thought.</span></strong></p><p><span>If the U.S. stock market collapses, at least the big blue chips in the A-share market that have a greater relationship with foreign capital will be doomed. Those who say that if the U.S. stock market collapses, funds will run to the A-share market, just listen to this nonsense.</span></p><p><span>In the past two days, I have seen a lot of things about the crash of the U.S. stock market. I have found that it is easy for people to think wildly and make up a lot of things for themselves.</span><span>The crash is actually a question about killing valuation or profit and how much to kill.</span></p><p><span>What is the current valuation of US stocks?</span><span>The three major U.S. stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20 times, the S&P is 22 times, and the Nasdaq is 33 times.</span></p><p><span>The most representative dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 is 22 times. Putting aside outliers, 22 times is the upper limit of the past US stock valuation range, which seems relatively expensive.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/49da3-672326c7-a53c-4484-94d4-ef719eacd01f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>But please note that the interest rate level in the United States is now the lowest level in history. Last night, the Federal Reserve comforted the market and hinted at further interest rate cuts. At present, the expectation of interest rate cut on March 18 has reached 100%, and there are even voices of a 50 basis point interest rate cut.</span><span>Considering the level of interest rates, this valuation is definitely not expensive.</span></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1dce2-5bb9e4bd-6f6e-49ff-913a-987fb7a0ae33.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>Powell said the risks of the epidemic to economic activity are rising and he will take timely actions to support the economy</span></p><p><span>(Source: Federal Reserve official website)</span></p><p><span>Look at the giants in the US stock market, Apple is 22 times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>28 times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>30-fold, FB 30-fold,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>More expensive, 83 times, but Wall Street has another valuation method on Amazon.</span><span>So, generally speaking, the valuations of these giants in the US stock market are not expensive. With them in charge, where else do you think the valuations can go?</span></p><p><span>That is to kill profit.</span><span>If the epidemic lasts for half a year, assuming that profits fall by 50%, the second half of the year is normal, and the whole year will fall by 25%, how much should the stock price be killed?</span></p><p><span>It must not kill 25%, because this lost 25% profit is not permanently lost, but temporary. It was only lost this year. This kind of impact, killing 10% is almost the same, and killing with a little emotion, is also about 15%.</span></p><p><span>So, in my personal opinion,<strong>The risk of a U.S. stock market crash is not high. To add, I have seen many statements about a U.S. stock market crash in the past few days, but it is uncertain how much it will fall. I mean that the requirements for a U.S. stock market crash are relatively low, falling by more than 20%, and entering a technical bear market.</strong></span></p><p><span>4</span></p><p><strong><span>What are the risks</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, there is still a possibility that this short-term profit shock will develop into a full-scale debt crisis.</span><span>This crisis requires a premise, high leverage.</span></p><p><span>Just like a person,<strong>If your debt is not high, even if you lose your income in the short term, you can use your savings to survive it.</strong></span><strong><span>But if you are in debt, your ability to bear risks will be greatly reduced. Life is like stepping on a tightrope, and you can't make a mistake.</span><span>For example, at present, is there anyone who can't afford the monthly payment?</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>The same is true of an economy. If the debt is relatively high, the ability of this economy to withstand the risk of short-term shocks will be greatly reduced.</span></strong></p><p><span>The current debt ratio of American enterprises is not low. In the third quarter of 2019, it was about 75%, exceeding the level of 2008.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4b24a-b98a64a6-cf1e-4666-addf-4cabecb84157.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>However, 70% of the U.S. economy is contributed by household consumption, and the level of household debt ratio is also an important reference. Leverage has been reduced in the past decade, and it dropped to 76% in the third quarter of 2019.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/981b3-955b0e84-9601-4344-898d-f64c6bfe69c1.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In contrast, the debt ratio of Chinese enterprises is 154%, far higher than that of the United States.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cd696-d1f4381a-8089-49b3-ab5b-5a6c91a2fc9b.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>China's household debt level doesn't seem high, but the proportion of households in GDP in China is not high. If disposable income is used, China's household debt level has reached 83%.</span></p><p><span>The same is true for other economies. The past decade has been a decade of global debt inflation.</span><span>If the epidemic lasts for a long time, it will be a challenge to this lever.</span></p><p><span>Relatively speaking, the pressure of American enterprises is not as great as that of China, but one advantage of China is that the government can act quickly to prevent violent deleveraging (i.e. default), thus preventing the contagion effect and blocking systemic risks.</span><span>The same is true for individuals, for example, they can suspend the payment of monthly payments.</span></p><p><span>I think Japan should be under the greatest pressure.</span><span>Originally, the debt level was high, and a lot of money was spent on the Olympic Games. I hoped to earn it back this year, but the result may not be able to do it, and it was all in vain.</span></p><p><span>Of course,<strong>If a country wants to develop into a debt crisis due to the epidemic, it requires a complete economic shutdown. I have not seen this possibility yet, and I think the possibility is also low.</strong></span></p><p><span>After all, problems exist, but they will always pass, as long as the people who solved them are there.</span><span>We see that many people in many countries are working hard in their respective fields to solve it.</span></p><p><strong><span>The impact of the epidemic will be great, but it will be smaller than the public imagines, especially smaller than the restless stock market imagines.</span></strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night they sold everything and surrendered collectively</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night they sold everything and surrendered collectively\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-02-29 19:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Author | Hanyangshu</p><p><span>Data Support<span>|</span>Pythagorean Big Data</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-dec7af23-afc8-40e1-8cdc-b11f1ba86330.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>1</span></p><p><strong><span>They threw everything away</span></strong></p><p><span>Yesterday Friday, from day to night again, the world was dark. By 10:30 p.m., Leek's last hope, the boss US stock market began to perform.</span></p><p><span>But the initial performance of U.S. stocks was trembling. Last night, I felt that overseas investors were throwing everything.</span></p><p><span>They sell tech stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It once fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>At one point it fell nearly 10%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/891e1-de4a083b-bb1d-4595-80a0-0503de9e510d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/33607-a9e470fe-16bd-4b9b-b5b4-34eb04ae713e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They sell financial stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Down 4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f2c5b-c6847299-f1fe-4eef-b3ff-22e22c92133e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They throw away manufacturing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>It fell 3.4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/410d1-75b1decb-175c-4af4-a90b-cd7abaf2909f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They continue to throw oil,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Fall another 4 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>It fell 3.6%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/965b1-b8395728-a8dc-405a-9c0c-91f824beee50.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They throw<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>These consumer service stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c5fd3-f4c2c32b-46df-4c85-a4af-540d7194880d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>If it is not wrong to sell these stocks, they still sold them<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, tossed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>, the stock prices of the two daily consumption giants once fell by more than 6%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/9ce09-1ccc6fd6-32ed-4165-838f-a3ab34b5dd86.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They didn't stop there, they began to sell targets that once seemed to benefit, such as Gilead, and mask stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c2742-61a2218e-b5c0-4948-b1ca-df58f7807539.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>It seems that they haven't sold enough to relieve their anger. They even sold gold. Last night, gold fell 5%, the biggest one-day drop since 2011.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/525d1-6d508578-94da-4d9c-a8ad-7e5792fc803a.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In a word, they were selling almost everything last night except Treasury Bond.</span><span>In the face of the epidemic, they have become extremely humble and are even willing to accept a 10-year U.S. bond with a yield of only 1.12%.</span><span>If I remember correctly, this is the lowest yield in the history of the 10-year U.S. Treasury.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a4a02-ef2354c7-c301-42d6-be50-a3ad2a3d5dba.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>It looked like the end of the world, and all investors surrendered.</span></strong></p><p><span>2</span></p><p><strong><span>There is blood in the Street</span></strong></p><p><span>The market has not been calm in recent years. From 2016 to now, except for 2017, there have been such moments every other year.</span></p><p><span>Brexit at the end of June 2016,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>It once fell by 12 points. In November 2016, Trump was unexpectedly elected, and the global market was once dumbfounded. In 2018, Moutai came out in the third quarter, and Baima was now falling by the limit. There was also a series of negative news from China and the United States on August 6 last year.</span></p><p><strong><span>In the face of these events, investors raise their hands and surrender, and then, the opportunity to buy the bottom often comes.</span></strong></p><p><span>This bargain-hunting opportunity reminds me of Templeton. Templeton likes to buy when Wall Street is full of blood. The original words are<strong>there is blood in the street.</strong></span><span>But I didn't find out how he explained what a bloody market was.</span></p><p><span>My own understanding is that,<strong>The river of blood means that emotions have completely taken over the stock price, and emotions are vented to the extreme. Due to the panic caused by emotions, the market sells almost all assets, whether good or bad, influential or uninfluential.</strong></span></p><p><strong><span>This sign existed in the US stock market last night.</span></strong></p><p><span>In fact, when we look at the subsequent performance of U.S. stocks, many stocks have recovered their lost ground. Among the three major indexes, the Nasdaq turned red, and the losses of the Dow and S&P 500 have also narrowed significantly.</span></p><p><span>What is particularly interesting is that the mask stocks failed to recover last night, and Gilead still fell by 4 points. However, the cruise ship stocks that were hit the most by the epidemic were the winners last night. Carnival, the parent company of Diamond, rose sharply. 5 points, and another cruise company Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH.N) rose 7 points.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/3f25f-2bddeeb7-45b3-4aef-92fa-a99fec5d55fc.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/8c22e-4da41835-4ccd-49bf-a53d-c5f1d3686154.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/aaf6f-e65c65a3-04ba-4eef-a50b-d83a7bcbfdea.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>The message is that,</span></strong><span><strong>Funds close their own positions and make profits and leave, with long positions turning short and short positions turning long.</strong></span><strong><span>From a financial perspective, this round of panic selling caused by the overseas epidemic has come to an end for the time being.</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>At least in the short term, I think there will be a good rebound opportunity for the stock market.</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, I believe it is not an easy decision for most people to buy the bottom at this time.</span><span>This is because first, when the market is blooding into a river, my blood is also flowing on the ground. Unless my character is so good that I escape, my blood is also flowing at this point in time.</span><span>This loss will make people feel hard.</span></p><p><strong><span>The second point is that the epidemic is still going on, and as long as you dare to imagine, any kind of doomsday scene can be depicted.</span></strong></p><p><span>I won't talk much about the first point, because how to solve this discomfort is a matter of personal character.</span><span>The second point can be talked about more.</span></p><p><span>3</span><strong></strong></p><p><strong><span>Will U.S. stocks crash?</span></strong></p><p><span>The second point is that if you think about it carefully, the real orientation is actually about whether the US stock market will collapse.</span></p><p><strong><span>When new leeks are faced with the uncertainty of the epidemic, when faced with this straight-line decline, they are afraid for sure, but we old leeks know that no matter how we describe its horror, it is always a short-term disturbance, it will eventually pass.</span></strong></p><p><span>But what makes us uneasy is that it happened at the top of the ten-year bull market in the U.S. stock market. On February 19, the U.S. stock market hit a record high, and then fell by 13 or 14 points in a week.</span><strong><span>The leek and the sickle are changed in one thought.</span></strong></p><p><span>If the U.S. stock market collapses, at least the big blue chips in the A-share market that have a greater relationship with foreign capital will be doomed. Those who say that if the U.S. stock market collapses, funds will run to the A-share market, just listen to this nonsense.</span></p><p><span>In the past two days, I have seen a lot of things about the crash of the U.S. stock market. I have found that it is easy for people to think wildly and make up a lot of things for themselves.</span><span>The crash is actually a question about killing valuation or profit and how much to kill.</span></p><p><span>What is the current valuation of US stocks?</span><span>The three major U.S. stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 20 times, the S&P is 22 times, and the Nasdaq is 33 times.</span></p><p><span>The most representative dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 is 22 times. Putting aside outliers, 22 times is the upper limit of the past US stock valuation range, which seems relatively expensive.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/49da3-672326c7-a53c-4484-94d4-ef719eacd01f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>But please note that the interest rate level in the United States is now the lowest level in history. Last night, the Federal Reserve comforted the market and hinted at further interest rate cuts. At present, the expectation of interest rate cut on March 18 has reached 100%, and there are even voices of a 50 basis point interest rate cut.</span><span>Considering the level of interest rates, this valuation is definitely not expensive.</span></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1dce2-5bb9e4bd-6f6e-49ff-913a-987fb7a0ae33.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>Powell said the risks of the epidemic to economic activity are rising and he will take timely actions to support the economy</span></p><p><span>(Source: Federal Reserve official website)</span></p><p><span>Look at the giants in the US stock market, Apple is 22 times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>28 times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>30-fold, FB 30-fold,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>More expensive, 83 times, but Wall Street has another valuation method on Amazon.</span><span>So, generally speaking, the valuations of these giants in the US stock market are not expensive. With them in charge, where else do you think the valuations can go?</span></p><p><span>That is to kill profit.</span><span>If the epidemic lasts for half a year, assuming that profits fall by 50%, the second half of the year is normal, and the whole year will fall by 25%, how much should the stock price be killed?</span></p><p><span>It must not kill 25%, because this lost 25% profit is not permanently lost, but temporary. It was only lost this year. This kind of impact, killing 10% is almost the same, and killing with a little emotion, is also about 15%.</span></p><p><span>So, in my personal opinion,<strong>The risk of a U.S. stock market crash is not high. To add, I have seen many statements about a U.S. stock market crash in the past few days, but it is uncertain how much it will fall. I mean that the requirements for a U.S. stock market crash are relatively low, falling by more than 20%, and entering a technical bear market.</strong></span></p><p><span>4</span></p><p><strong><span>What are the risks</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, there is still a possibility that this short-term profit shock will develop into a full-scale debt crisis.</span><span>This crisis requires a premise, high leverage.</span></p><p><span>Just like a person,<strong>If your debt is not high, even if you lose your income in the short term, you can use your savings to survive it.</strong></span><strong><span>But if you are in debt, your ability to bear risks will be greatly reduced. Life is like stepping on a tightrope, and you can't make a mistake.</span><span>For example, at present, is there anyone who can't afford the monthly payment?</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>The same is true of an economy. If the debt is relatively high, the ability of this economy to withstand the risk of short-term shocks will be greatly reduced.</span></strong></p><p><span>The current debt ratio of American enterprises is not low. In the third quarter of 2019, it was about 75%, exceeding the level of 2008.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4b24a-b98a64a6-cf1e-4666-addf-4cabecb84157.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>However, 70% of the U.S. economy is contributed by household consumption, and the level of household debt ratio is also an important reference. Leverage has been reduced in the past decade, and it dropped to 76% in the third quarter of 2019.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/981b3-955b0e84-9601-4344-898d-f64c6bfe69c1.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In contrast, the debt ratio of Chinese enterprises is 154%, far higher than that of the United States.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cd696-d1f4381a-8089-49b3-ab5b-5a6c91a2fc9b.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>China's household debt level doesn't seem high, but the proportion of households in GDP in China is not high. If disposable income is used, China's household debt level has reached 83%.</span></p><p><span>The same is true for other economies. The past decade has been a decade of global debt inflation.</span><span>If the epidemic lasts for a long time, it will be a challenge to this lever.</span></p><p><span>Relatively speaking, the pressure of American enterprises is not as great as that of China, but one advantage of China is that the government can act quickly to prevent violent deleveraging (i.e. default), thus preventing the contagion effect and blocking systemic risks.</span><span>The same is true for individuals, for example, they can suspend the payment of monthly payments.</span></p><p><span>I think Japan should be under the greatest pressure.</span><span>Originally, the debt level was high, and a lot of money was spent on the Olympic Games. I hoped to earn it back this year, but the result may not be able to do it, and it was all in vain.</span></p><p><span>Of course,<strong>If a country wants to develop into a debt crisis due to the epidemic, it requires a complete economic shutdown. I have not seen this possibility yet, and I think the possibility is also low.</strong></span></p><p><span>After all, problems exist, but they will always pass, as long as the people who solved them are there.</span><span>We see that many people in many countries are working hard in their respective fields to solve it.</span></p><p><strong><span>The impact of the epidemic will be great, but it will be smaller than the public imagines, especially smaller than the restless stock market imagines.</span></strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/351512\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/6a05f-f80902a8-8bfe-4148-945d-65634b30bf8b.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/351512","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2015382300","content_text":"作者 | 汉阳树数据支持 | 勾股大数据1他们什么都抛了昨天周五，又是从白天到黑夜，全球杀个暗无天日，到我们的晚上10点半，韭菜最后的希望，老大美股开始表演。但美股最开始的表现是让人瑟瑟发抖的，昨晚给我的感觉是，海外的投资者什么都在抛。他们抛科技股，苹果一度跌超6%，特斯拉一度跌近10%。他们抛金融股，摩根大通跌7%，高盛跌4%。他们抛制造业，波音跌6%，卡特彼勒跌3.4%。他们继续抛石油，雪佛龙跌再跌4个点，埃克森美孚跌3.6%。他们抛麦当劳，迪士尼这些消费者服务股。如果说这些股票抛得不算冤枉，他们还抛了可口可乐，抛了宝洁，两家日常消费巨头的股价一度均跌超6%。他们抛的还不止于此，他们开始抛那些曾经看上去受益的标的，比如吉利德，比如口罩股。他们似乎抛得还不够解气，他们甚至抛黄金了，昨晚黄金一度大跌5%，创2011年以来最大单日跌幅。一句话，昨天晚上他们几乎在抛售一切资产，除了国债。在疫情面前，他们变得无比卑微，甚至愿意接受收益率只有1.12%的10年期美债。如果我没记错，这是10年期美债历史上最低的收益率。这看上去就像是世界末日，所有的投资者都缴械投降了。2There is blood in the Street这几年市场都不平静，2016年到现在，除了2017年风平浪静，其它每一年都有过这样的时刻。2016年6月底的英国脱欧，汇丰一度跌了12个点，2016年11月特朗普意外当选，全球市场一度目瞪口呆，2018年茅台三季度出来，白马现跌停潮，还有去年8月6日一系列中美负面消息集中压顶。在这些事件面前，投资者都举手投降，然后，抄底的机会往往也降临了。这种抄底机会让我想起邓普顿来，邓普顿最喜欢在华尔街血流成河时买入，原话是there is blood in the street。但是我没有查到他怎么解释什么是血流成河的市场的。我自己的理解是，血流成河意味着情绪完全接管了股价，情绪宣泄到了极点，由于情绪导致的慌不择路，市场几乎抛售一切资产，不管好的坏的，有影响的没影响的。而昨晚的美股就存在着这一迹象。事实上，我们看之后的美股表现，许多股票收复了失地，三大指数上，纳指翻红，道指与标普500的跌幅也大大收窄。尤其有意思的一点是，昨晚口罩股没能收回来，吉利德也仍然跌了4个点，但是被疫情砸得最凄惨的游轮股却是昨晚的赢家，钻石号的母公司嘉年华大涨5个点，另一家游轮公司挪威游轮（NCLH.N）大涨7个点。这传达的信息是，资金在各自了结自己的头寸获利走人，多头翻空，空头翻多。从资金面上来说，这轮海外疫情导致的恐慌性抛售暂时已经画上句号。至少短期来说，我认为股市会存在不错的反弹机会。当然，这个时候去抄底，我相信对绝大多数人来说，都不是一个容易的决策。这是因为第一，当市场血流成河的时候，地上流着的也有我的血，除非我人品好到爆，躲过了，否则这个时间点上，我的血也在流。这个亏损会让人很难受。第二点是疫情还在继续，只要你敢想象，什么样的末日景象都可以描绘出来。第一点不多谈，因为怎么解决这个难受，是个人性格问题。第二点倒是可以多谈谈。3美股会崩盘吗？第二点如果仔细想下，其实真正的导向是关于美股会不会崩盘的问题。新韭菜面对疫情这种不确定性时，面对这种直线跌法的时候，害怕是肯定的，但我们这些老韭菜是知道的，无论怎么描述它的可怕性，它始终就一次短期扰动，最终一定会过去。但让我们不安的是，它发生在美股十年大牛市的顶上，就在2月19日，美股还创出了历史新高，然后一周时间，就跌去了13、14个点。韭菜与镰刀，一念之间就转换了。如果美股崩盘了，至少A股里与外资干系较大的大蓝筹是难逃一劫的，那些说什么美股崩了，资金会往A股跑，这种扯淡，你听听就好。这两天我看到许多关于美股崩盘的东西，我发现人很容易想入非非，自己给自己脑补许多东西。崩盘，其实就是一个关于杀估值还是杀盈利以及杀多少的问题。美股现在估值是多少？美股三大指数，道指20倍，标普22倍，纳指33倍。最具代表性的标普500动态估值是22倍，抛开异常值，22倍是过去美股估值区间的上限，看上去是比较贵的。但请注意，美国利率水平现在是历史最低水平，昨晚美联储又安慰市场，暗示进一步降息，目前对3月18日的降息预期打到了100%，甚至有降息50个基点的声音。考虑利率水平，这一估值绝对称不上贵。鲍威尔称疫情对经济活动的风险在上升，将适时行动支撑经济（来源：美联储官网）你再看美股里那几个巨头，苹果22倍，谷歌28倍，微软30倍，FB30倍，亚马逊贵点，83倍，但华尔街在亚马逊上的估值方法另有一套。所以，总的来讲，美股这些巨头估值都不贵，有它们坐镇，你说估值还能杀到哪里去？那就是杀盈利了。疫情如果持续半年，假设盈利下滑50%，下半年正常，全年就是下滑25%，股价应该杀多少？肯定杀不到25%,因为这个失去的25%的利润不是永久失去了，而是暂时性的，只这一年失去了，这种一次冲击，杀个10%差不多，带点情绪杀，也是15%左右。所以，我个人看来，美股崩盘风险是不高的，补充一点是，这几天看到许多美股崩盘的说法，但具体跌多少又没个准，我指的美股崩盘要求比较低，跌20%以上，进入技术熊市。4还有什么风险当然，还存在一种可能，这种短期的利润冲击，发展成一种全面的债务危机。这一危机需要一个前提，高杠杆。就像个人一样，你如果负债不高，即使短期失去收入，也能用积蓄度过去。但如果你负债杠杠的，那承受风险的能力就大大降低，生活就如踩钢丝，不能出一丝错。比如当前，有没有人还不起月供？一个经济体也是如此，如果负债比较高，这一经济体承受这种短期冲击风险的能力就大大下降了。美国现在企业的负债率水平是不低的，2019年三季度75%左右，超过了2008年的水平。不过，美国的经济体里70%由家庭消费贡献，家庭负债率水平也是一个重要参考，过去十年都在降杠杆，2019年三季度降到了76%。对比一下，我国企业的负债率水平是154%，远在美国之上。我国的家庭负债水平看上去不高，但是我国的家庭在GDP里分得比例并不高，如果用可支配收入算，我国家庭负债水平也达到了83%。其它经济体也是如此，过去十年是全球债务膨胀的十年。疫情如果持续的时间长，对这一杠杆是一个挑战。相对来说，美国的企业压力没有中国大，但中国有一优势就是，政府可以迅速行动，阻止暴力去杠杆发生（即违约），从而阻止传染效应，阻断系统性风险。个人也是，比如可以暂缓还月供。我觉得，应该压力最大的是日本。本来负债水平就高，还砸了许多钱投奥运，本承望今年一把赚回来，结果可能办不了，全打水漂了。当然，一个国家要因疫情发展到债务危机，那需要经济的全面停摆，目前还没看到这一可能，我觉得可能性也低。毕竟，问题是存在的，但问题总会过去，只要解决问题的人在。我们看到，许多国家许多人在各自领域努力，在解决它。疫情事件影响是会很大，但会比公众想象的要小，尤其会比躁动的股市想象的要小。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".IXIC":0.6,".DJI":0.87,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}