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- 杨铭琪杨铭琪
  ·2021-02-01
  fake news
  Forcing the empty army to fight silver! Are the traders behind them really retail investors?
  未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？
  Forcing the empty army to fight silver! Are the traders behind them really retail investors?
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Are the traders behind them really retail investors?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103378464","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？","content":"<p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors pressing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just retail investors? What fate will silver usher in in in the future? The short squeeze on the stock market battlefield has not yet come to an end, and American retail investors have opened up new positions in the futures market.</p><p>The beginning of the story is exactly the same. Last week, on WallStreetBets, also a \"gambler's forum\", a user posted a post calling on retail investors to \"launch the world's largest silver short squeeze\", and boasted to pull the silver price from $25 to a high of $1,000, attracting a crowd of respondents.</p><p>For a time, spot and futures silver prices both rose sharply, and the world's largest silver ETF — —<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>Silver Trust is also seeing huge inflows. The rally of the silver market has even spread to other countries around the world, and the domestic futures market and Australian silver mining stocks have been affected.</p><p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors pressing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just retail investors? What fate will silver usher in in in the future?</p><p><b>Silver price skyrockets triggered by a post</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned in a previous article that just as GameStop's short-squeezing attracted great attention from the market, a user with ID \"jjalj30\" on WallStreetBets forum posted a post calling on retail investors to focus on silver in the next round of short-squeezing firepower:</p><p>The silver market is currently one of the most manipulated in the world, \"jjalj30\" said. Dozens of banks hide actual inflation by manipulating gold and silver prices. Whether in the industrial field or in the monetary field, the current water release action of global central banks should push up the price of silver.<b>The inflation-adjusted silver price should be $1,000/oz instead of $25/oz now.</b>\"jjalj30\" believes that retail investors can make a short squeeze by consistently buying silver ETFs (SLVs), pushing up silver prices.<b>Even if retail investors don't care about yields, think something like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is exciting enough that such a big bank (previously paid a huge fine for silver price manipulation) may go bankrupt because of short squeeze.</b>Subsequently, investors with the username \"TheHappyHawaiian\" also expressed similar views,<b>It is believed that shorts can be squeezed by pushing up the price of silver to force more silver futures contracts for physical delivery.</b></p><p>\"TheHappyHawaiian\" said that the market manipulates the price of silver through naked short selling mainly by several major Wall Street banks represented by JPMorgan Chase. At present, the average ratio of book-traded silver to physical silver on the silver futures market is 250:1, which means that most transactions are completed by cash settlement rather than physical delivery. As long as retail investors can force more futures contracts to be delivered physically, they can squeeze silver shorts.<b>Driven by the recent fanatical market atmosphere, the effect of the post is immediate. A group of investors almost practice makes perfect. Today, the spot silver price soared to more than 10% in the day, once standing at $30/oz, and set a new high since August 11th last year;</b>Futures also opened up 7%, surging to a high of $29.095. At the same time, the gold-to-silver ratio has also reached its lowest level since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544a19ab8a6d5f1fb2f5c9da49f248cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><i>Spot silver briefly breached $30/oz during the day</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32c45cb4746091e927b69e81d46cb84\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Spot silver hits new high since August last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1bc64e4ba9416dad89d3336847b6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Comex Silver Futures Surge</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c022e64b306cc738f116b32b3af669a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Gold-to-silver ratio is lowest since 2014</i></p><p>In fact, as early as last Friday, the price of silver had fluctuated sharply. The intraday increase of silver futures once exceeded 6%, while the increase of gold futures in the same period was only about 0.5%.</p><p><b>The strong rally spread even to the rest of the globe.</b>In China's domestic commodity futures market, the increase of the main contract of Shanghai Silver once expanded to 8%, setting a new high since September last year. Australian silver miners also surged early Monday, with Argent Minerals up nearly 60%, Investigator Resources up nearly 50% and Boab Metal up 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c070cbb74d6465b3da84a0fcb64d844\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The world's largest silver ETF also ushered in a large inflow of funds. Market data showed that silver ETF (SLV) inflows reached $1 billion in a single day last Friday, which is almost twice the previous record of the highest inflow for this 15-year-old ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2e9cb0ccad6244d34bf3ed1dbe0def\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under the madness of the silver market, the supply of silver bars and silver coins on retail websites also exceeds the demand. A number of retailers, including Money Metals, SD Bullion, JM Bullion and Apmex, have said they have suspended selling silver products, unable to process orders before Asian markets open, given the current frenzy of demand for silver, according to Bloomberg.</p><p>SD Bullion's CEO said in his article,<b>In the 24 hours leading up to Friday's close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10 times as much silver as it sold throughout the weekend before the usual Sunday open.</b></p><p>The report quoted Robert Higgins, CEO of Argent Asset Group in Delaware, as saying that he has been handling transaction calls all day, people are desperately buying gold and silver, and the current spot market is \"very, very tight\".</p><p><b>But, really retail investors?</b></p><p>Are the masterminds behind it really just retail investors? In fact, behind every short-squeezing drama, it seems that it is inseparable from the fueling of institutions.</p><p>Many analysts believe that, judging from the posts on the forum, the professionalism of short-squeezing techniques and strategies is not like that of retail investors. Guo Yafu, president of New York Tianjiao Fund Company, told shanghai securities news:</p><p>I carefully studied their post calling for long silver. From the content point of view, it is definitely not something that ordinary retail investors can write. The post even mentioned JPMorgan Chase's short position.<b>If there is no institutional shadow, at least there are people who work in financial institutions who are involved in their own names.</b>Huang Jun, a special analyst at FXTM, also said: \"<b>There are a lot of institutions that have been in there, such as some funds and silver miners.</b>”</p><p>Perhaps to confirm this view,<b>In the full text of the above-mentioned user mentioning \"TheHappyHawaiian\", even a professional \"operation template\" was given.</b>Specifically, he wrote:</p><p>I will invest 50% of my money directly in the SLV ETF and the other 50% in the SLV Call option that expires on April 16 with a $35 strike price.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d875f71eb18b37c0b2ddd3d1c96b97\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">An increased position in SLV will trigger a rise in the price of silver, creating a short squeeze when SLV approaches $35. In the event of a short squeeze, SLV's price target would reach $75 at the end of April. It would be more prudent to buy SLV options and PSLV shares. Not only that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance pointed out,<b>The article also explains why SLV is a better target among the two major silver ETFs, PSLV and SLV</b>Because SLV itself has no short positions, but there are many arbitrage disks inside SLV, which are connected with the spot and futures markets of silver. By killing SLV, a large number of silver short positions gathered in Comex exchanges can collapse collectively.</p><p>According to the article, there is no short position in JPMorgan Chase now, so pulling silver will not encounter much resistance now. In addition, SLV has other advantages, including: having more brokers offering trading on this subject, better liquidity, and having related options trading.</p><p><b>What's the outlook for silver?</b></p><p>Then, the question that affects the nerves of the market most is: How long can this wave of silver rise?</p><p>The general view among analysts in the market seems to be that the short-term is slightly bullish, but in the long run, this rally may be only temporary.</p><p><b>As the article was written, the spot silver price briefly reached above $30/oz around 4: 10 on Monday. It is worth noting that this point has been broken<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The previously estimated 12-month target price of $30.</b></p><p>John Feeney, an analyst at Guardian Vaults, an Australian trader, said that joint actions on Reddit forums can indeed greatly affect the price of individual stocks, but if silver is compared with the market value of individual companies, they don't think they have the ability to significantly push silver into a short squeeze.<b>Silver has a very large market cap, and what people on the forum want is a quick rise, so individuals won't be too bullish.</b></p><p>Some analysts pointed out,<b>The most important point is that there is a fundamental difference between the precious metal market and the stock market. Trying to squeeze out silver shorts is likely to affect the foreign exchange market. Once so, central banks will definitely intervene.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry Represents:</p><p>Precious metals typically play a hedge against inflation, moving higher against the backdrop of an often weaker dollar. Neither silver ETFs nor spot silver/USD are stocks. If people try to squeeze silver shorts, it may affect the US dollar and the most traded market in the world, namely the foreign exchange market, which is the main difference between precious metals and stocks. As a precious metal, silver may affect the trend of the US dollar if it is targeted short covering. But if it does, don't expect central banks to stand by. There may be many reasons why the dollar is falling, but a \"game\" against precious metals won't be one of them. But there are also institutions with different views. As a safe-haven asset, it is also a kind of asset used for production<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>For industrial metals such as panels, many institutions have been strongly optimistic about silver recently. Philip Newman, an analyst at Metals Focus, once said that the prices of gold and palladium may hit new highs in 2021, but silver will see the biggest increase.</p><p>From a technical point of view, market analyst Jesse Colombo posted on Forbes website on Sunday,<b>If silver is able to break upwards above $30 with strong trading volume, the likelihood of a subsequent bullish will increase significantly, with the next target price at $35/oz.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2afce75bc1cca3a69ed1fc3178148a\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forcing the empty army to fight silver! Are the traders behind them really retail investors?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForcing the empty army to fight silver! Are the traders behind them really retail investors?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-01 17:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors pressing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just retail investors? What fate will silver usher in in in the future? The short squeeze on the stock market battlefield has not yet come to an end, and American retail investors have opened up new positions in the futures market.</p><p>The beginning of the story is exactly the same. Last week, on WallStreetBets, also a \"gambler's forum\", a user posted a post calling on retail investors to \"launch the world's largest silver short squeeze\", and boasted to pull the silver price from $25 to a high of $1,000, attracting a crowd of respondents.</p><p>For a time, spot and futures silver prices both rose sharply, and the world's largest silver ETF — —<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>Silver Trust is also seeing huge inflows. The rally of the silver market has even spread to other countries around the world, and the domestic futures market and Australian silver mining stocks have been affected.</p><p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors pressing short and institutions paying the bill be staged again? Behind the large-scale short selling, is the mastermind behind it really just retail investors? What fate will silver usher in in in the future?</p><p><b>Silver price skyrockets triggered by a post</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned in a previous article that just as GameStop's short-squeezing attracted great attention from the market, a user with ID \"jjalj30\" on WallStreetBets forum posted a post calling on retail investors to focus on silver in the next round of short-squeezing firepower:</p><p>The silver market is currently one of the most manipulated in the world, \"jjalj30\" said. Dozens of banks hide actual inflation by manipulating gold and silver prices. Whether in the industrial field or in the monetary field, the current water release action of global central banks should push up the price of silver.<b>The inflation-adjusted silver price should be $1,000/oz instead of $25/oz now.</b>\"jjalj30\" believes that retail investors can make a short squeeze by consistently buying silver ETFs (SLVs), pushing up silver prices.<b>Even if retail investors don't care about yields, think something like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is exciting enough that such a big bank (previously paid a huge fine for silver price manipulation) may go bankrupt because of short squeeze.</b>Subsequently, investors with the username \"TheHappyHawaiian\" also expressed similar views,<b>It is believed that shorts can be squeezed by pushing up the price of silver to force more silver futures contracts for physical delivery.</b></p><p>\"TheHappyHawaiian\" said that the market manipulates the price of silver through naked short selling mainly by several major Wall Street banks represented by JPMorgan Chase. At present, the average ratio of book-traded silver to physical silver on the silver futures market is 250:1, which means that most transactions are completed by cash settlement rather than physical delivery. As long as retail investors can force more futures contracts to be delivered physically, they can squeeze silver shorts.<b>Driven by the recent fanatical market atmosphere, the effect of the post is immediate. A group of investors almost practice makes perfect. Today, the spot silver price soared to more than 10% in the day, once standing at $30/oz, and set a new high since August 11th last year;</b>Futures also opened up 7%, surging to a high of $29.095. At the same time, the gold-to-silver ratio has also reached its lowest level since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544a19ab8a6d5f1fb2f5c9da49f248cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><i>Spot silver briefly breached $30/oz during the day</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32c45cb4746091e927b69e81d46cb84\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Spot silver hits new high since August last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1bc64e4ba9416dad89d3336847b6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Comex Silver Futures Surge</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c022e64b306cc738f116b32b3af669a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Gold-to-silver ratio is lowest since 2014</i></p><p>In fact, as early as last Friday, the price of silver had fluctuated sharply. The intraday increase of silver futures once exceeded 6%, while the increase of gold futures in the same period was only about 0.5%.</p><p><b>The strong rally spread even to the rest of the globe.</b>In China's domestic commodity futures market, the increase of the main contract of Shanghai Silver once expanded to 8%, setting a new high since September last year. Australian silver miners also surged early Monday, with Argent Minerals up nearly 60%, Investigator Resources up nearly 50% and Boab Metal up 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c070cbb74d6465b3da84a0fcb64d844\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The world's largest silver ETF also ushered in a large inflow of funds. Market data showed that silver ETF (SLV) inflows reached $1 billion in a single day last Friday, which is almost twice the previous record of the highest inflow for this 15-year-old ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2e9cb0ccad6244d34bf3ed1dbe0def\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under the madness of the silver market, the supply of silver bars and silver coins on retail websites also exceeds the demand. A number of retailers, including Money Metals, SD Bullion, JM Bullion and Apmex, have said they have suspended selling silver products, unable to process orders before Asian markets open, given the current frenzy of demand for silver, according to Bloomberg.</p><p>SD Bullion's CEO said in his article,<b>In the 24 hours leading up to Friday's close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10 times as much silver as it sold throughout the weekend before the usual Sunday open.</b></p><p>The report quoted Robert Higgins, CEO of Argent Asset Group in Delaware, as saying that he has been handling transaction calls all day, people are desperately buying gold and silver, and the current spot market is \"very, very tight\".</p><p><b>But, really retail investors?</b></p><p>Are the masterminds behind it really just retail investors? In fact, behind every short-squeezing drama, it seems that it is inseparable from the fueling of institutions.</p><p>Many analysts believe that, judging from the posts on the forum, the professionalism of short-squeezing techniques and strategies is not like that of retail investors. Guo Yafu, president of New York Tianjiao Fund Company, told shanghai securities news:</p><p>I carefully studied their post calling for long silver. From the content point of view, it is definitely not something that ordinary retail investors can write. The post even mentioned JPMorgan Chase's short position.<b>If there is no institutional shadow, at least there are people who work in financial institutions who are involved in their own names.</b>Huang Jun, a special analyst at FXTM, also said: \"<b>There are a lot of institutions that have been in there, such as some funds and silver miners.</b>”</p><p>Perhaps to confirm this view,<b>In the full text of the above-mentioned user mentioning \"TheHappyHawaiian\", even a professional \"operation template\" was given.</b>Specifically, he wrote:</p><p>I will invest 50% of my money directly in the SLV ETF and the other 50% in the SLV Call option that expires on April 16 with a $35 strike price.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d875f71eb18b37c0b2ddd3d1c96b97\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">An increased position in SLV will trigger a rise in the price of silver, creating a short squeeze when SLV approaches $35. In the event of a short squeeze, SLV's price target would reach $75 at the end of April. It would be more prudent to buy SLV options and PSLV shares. Not only that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Finance pointed out,<b>The article also explains why SLV is a better target among the two major silver ETFs, PSLV and SLV</b>Because SLV itself has no short positions, but there are many arbitrage disks inside SLV, which are connected with the spot and futures markets of silver. By killing SLV, a large number of silver short positions gathered in Comex exchanges can collapse collectively.</p><p>According to the article, there is no short position in JPMorgan Chase now, so pulling silver will not encounter much resistance now. In addition, SLV has other advantages, including: having more brokers offering trading on this subject, better liquidity, and having related options trading.</p><p><b>What's the outlook for silver?</b></p><p>Then, the question that affects the nerves of the market most is: How long can this wave of silver rise?</p><p>The general view among analysts in the market seems to be that the short-term is slightly bullish, but in the long run, this rally may be only temporary.</p><p><b>As the article was written, the spot silver price briefly reached above $30/oz around 4: 10 on Monday. It is worth noting that this point has been broken<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The previously estimated 12-month target price of $30.</b></p><p>John Feeney, an analyst at Guardian Vaults, an Australian trader, said that joint actions on Reddit forums can indeed greatly affect the price of individual stocks, but if silver is compared with the market value of individual companies, they don't think they have the ability to significantly push silver into a short squeeze.<b>Silver has a very large market cap, and what people on the forum want is a quick rise, so individuals won't be too bullish.</b></p><p>Some analysts pointed out,<b>The most important point is that there is a fundamental difference between the precious metal market and the stock market. Trying to squeeze out silver shorts is likely to affect the foreign exchange market. Once so, central banks will definitely intervene.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry Represents:</p><p>Precious metals typically play a hedge against inflation, moving higher against the backdrop of an often weaker dollar. Neither silver ETFs nor spot silver/USD are stocks. If people try to squeeze silver shorts, it may affect the US dollar and the most traded market in the world, namely the foreign exchange market, which is the main difference between precious metals and stocks. As a precious metal, silver may affect the trend of the US dollar if it is targeted short covering. But if it does, don't expect central banks to stand by. There may be many reasons why the dollar is falling, but a \"game\" against precious metals won't be one of them. But there are also institutions with different views. As a safe-haven asset, it is also a kind of asset used for production<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>For industrial metals such as panels, many institutions have been strongly optimistic about silver recently. Philip Newman, an analyst at Metals Focus, once said that the prices of gold and palladium may hit new highs in 2021, but silver will see the biggest increase.</p><p>From a technical point of view, market analyst Jesse Colombo posted on Forbes website on Sunday,<b>If silver is able to break upwards above $30 with strong trading volume, the likelihood of a subsequent bullish will increase significantly, with the next target price at $35/oz.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2afce75bc1cca3a69ed1fc3178148a\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58095e3601987d1105ddaad4a3be8aeb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1103378464","content_text":"二月伊始，散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演？大规模做空背后，背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗？未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？股市战场的逼空尚未落下帷幕，美国散户又在期货市场开掘了新的阵地。故事的开端如出一辙。上周，同样是“赌徒论坛” WallStreetBets上，一位用户发帖号召散户“发动一场全球最大的白银逼空”，并豪言要将银价从25美元拉到1000美元高位，引来应者云集。一时间现货、期货银价双双大涨，全球最大的白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust也迎来巨额资金流入。白银市场涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家，国内期市、澳大利亚银矿股均受到波及。二月伊始，散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演？大规模做空背后，背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗？未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？一篇帖子引发银价暴涨华尔街见闻在此前文章中提到，就在GameStop逼空引得市场高度关注之际，WallStreetBets论坛上一名ID为“jjalj30”的用户，发帖号召散户将下一轮逼空火力聚焦在白银上：“jjalj30”表示，白银市场目前是全球最受操纵的市场之一。数十家银行通过操纵黄金和白银价格来掩盖实际的通货膨胀。无论是在工业领域还是在货币领域，目前全球央行的放水行动都该推高白银价格。 经过通胀调整后的白银价格应该是1000美元/盎司，而不是现在的25美元/盎司。“jjalj30”认为，散户投资者可以通过持续买入白银ETF（SLV）来进行逼空，推高白银价格。 即使散户投资者不在乎收益，想想类似摩根大通（此前因白银价格操作支付巨额罚单）这样的大行可能因为逼空而破产，这就足以激动人心。随后，用户名为“TheHappyHawaiian”的投资者也表达了类似观点，认为可以通过抬高银价迫使更多白银期货合约进行实物交割，从而挤压空头。“TheHappyHawaiian”表示，市场上通过裸卖空操纵白银价格主要是以摩根大通为代表的几家华尔街大行。目前白银期货市场上账面交易的白银与实物白银的平均比率为250:1，这意味着多数交易是通过现金结算而不是实物交割完成交易。只要散户投资者能迫使更多的期货合约进行实物交割，就能挤压白银空头。近期狂热市场氛围的推动下，帖子一出效果立竿见影。一众投资者几乎是熟能生巧一般地，今天将现货白银价格猛推至日内暴涨逾10%，一度站上30美元/盎司，并创下去年8月11日以来新高；期货开盘也上涨7％，飙升至29.095美元高点。与此同时，金银比也来到2014年来最低水平。现货白银日内短暂突破30美元/盎司现货白银创下去年8月来新高Comex白银期货猛飙金银比为2014来最低而事实上早在上周五，白银价格就已经出现大幅波动，白银期货盘中涨幅一度突破6%，而黄金期货同期涨幅仅约0.5%。强劲的涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家。中国国内商品期市上，沪银主力合约涨幅一度扩大至8%，刷新去年9月以来高位。澳大利亚银矿股周一早间股价也大幅飙升， Argent Minerals上涨近60%，Investigator Resources涨近50%，Boab Metal涨20%。全球最大白银ETF也迎来资金大幅流入。市场数据显示，白银ETF（SLV）上周五单日流入资金高达10亿美元，这几乎是这个已有15年历史ETF此前最高流入记录的2倍。银市疯狂之下，零售网站上的银条、银币也随之供不应求。据彭博报道，包括Money Metals、SD Bullion、JM Bullion和Apmex在内的诸多零售商均表示，鉴于白银当前的疯狂需求，它们在亚洲市场开盘前无法处理订单，已暂停销售白银产品。SD Bullion首席执行官在其文章中表示，周五收盘前的24小时内，SD Bullion卖出白银数量，几乎是平时周日开盘前整个周末卖出数量的近10倍。报道援引特拉华州Argent Asset Group首席执行官Robert Higgins称，他整天都在处理交易电话，人们都在拼命购买黄金和白银，当前现货市场“非常、非常吃紧”。但是，真的是散户？幕后主谋真的只是散户吗？事实上，每一场逼空大戏背后，似乎都离不开机构的推波助澜。不少分析师认为，从论坛上的帖子来看，逼空的手法和策略的专业度并不似散户所为。纽约天骄基金公司总裁郭亚夫告诉对上海证券报表示：我认真研读了他们号召做多白银的帖子，从内容上看，绝对不是普通散户可以写出来的内容，帖子里甚至提到了摩根大通的空头仓位。 如果说没有机构影子的话，至少也有在金融机构工作的人以个人名义参与了。FXTM富拓特约分析师黄俊也称：“有很多机构一直在里面，比如一些基金和白银矿商。”也许能印证这一观点的是，上述提及“TheHappyHawaiian”用户的发帖全文中，甚至给出了颇具专业性的“操作模板”。具体操作上，他写道：我将把50%的资金直接投资于SLV ETF，另外50%投资于4月16日到期的SLV看涨期权，行权价35美元。SLV的持仓量增加将引发白银价格上涨，当SLV接近35美元时，就会产生空头挤压。如果出现轧空，4月底SLV的目标价将达到75美元。更为审慎的做法是购买SLV期权和PSLV股票。不仅如此，新浪财经指出，该文还解释了为何在PSLV和SLV两大白银ETF中，SLV是更好的标的，因为SLV自身没有什么空头，但SLV内部有很多套利盘，这些套利盘与白银的现货、期货市场相联，打掉SLV就可以让Comex交易所里面大量聚集的白银空头集体崩溃。该文表示，现在摩根大通手上已经没什么空头了，所以现在拉白银不会遇到太大阻力。此外，SLV还有其他优势，包括：有更多经纪商提供这一标的的交易、流动性更好、有相关期权交易。白银后市如何？那么，最牵动市场神经的问题是：白银这一波到底还能涨多久？市场上分析师的普遍观点似乎是，短期小幅看多，但放长远看，这轮涨势就可能只是暂时的了。就在撰写文章当口，现货白银价格已于周一4：10左右短暂来到30美元/盎司以上。值得注意的是，这一点位已突破高盛此前所估30美元的12个月目标价。澳洲交易商Guardian Vaults分析师John Feeney表示，Reddit论坛上的联合行动确实可以大幅影响个别股票的价格，但如果把白银和个人公司的市值相比较，不认为他们有能力显著推动白银进入逼空状态。白银的市值非常大，而论坛上的人想要的是快速上涨，因此个人不会看涨太多。有分析师指出，最重要的一点是，贵金属市场与股票市场存在根本差异，尝试挤爆白银空头很可能波及外汇市场，一旦如此，各国央行绝对会出手干预。嘉盛集团Joe Perry表示：贵金属通常扮演对冲通胀的角色，在美元时常走弱的背景下，贵金属走高。白银ETF和现货白银/美元都不是股票，如果人们尝试挤爆白银空头，可能影响美元与全球交易量最大的市场，即外汇市场，这是贵金属与股票之间的主要差别。作为贵金属的白银如果遭到针对性的空头回补，可能影响美元的走势。但如果确有其事，不要以为各国央行会袖手旁观。美元下跌的原因可能很多，但针对贵金属的“游戏”不会是其中之一。但也有机构持不同观点。作为一种避险资产，也是一种用于生产太阳能电池板等产品的工业金属，不少机构近期原本就强烈看好白银。Metals Focus分析师Philip Newman就曾表示，2021年或将看到黄金和钯金的价格再创新高，但白银的升幅将是最大的。从技术面看，市场分析师Jesse Colombo周日在福布斯网站发文称，如果白银能够在强劲的交易量下向上突破30美元，则后续看涨的可能性将大幅增加，下一个目标价位将是35美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}