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花一样的男子
花一样的男子
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2023-03-20
[爱心] [爱心] [爱心]
The Credit Suisse crisis triggers panic. See how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis
雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后,2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机:震撼世界的一周》(Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The Wor
The Credit Suisse crisis triggers panic. See how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis
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花一样的男子
花一样的男子
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2023-03-15
[爱心] [爱心] [爱心]
Buffett sells right again? Car Circle Price Reduction Tide Raid, Fund Manager's Latest Interpretation
近日声势浩大的车企降价潮,传导至股票市场引发汽车股巨震,3月10日当天,A、H股市场汽车股纷纷大跌,多股日内跌超5%。 而若将时间线拉长来看,尽管年初出现反弹,但近半年汽车股整体呈震荡下跌趋势,汽车ETF下跌超20%。半年前开始的股神巴菲特对龙头股的减持,能否看成多米诺骨牌的第一张,还有待商榷,但目前投资界对于新能源车企贝塔行情的远去似乎已成共识。
Buffett sells right again? Car Circle Price Reduction Tide Raid, Fund Manager's Latest Interpretation
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花一样的男子
花一样的男子
·
2023-03-15
[比心] [比心] [比心]
巴菲特加倉西方石油到22.2%!兩位公募基金經理解讀最新股東信中的價值投資祕笈
@聪明投资人:
在去年連續加註西方石油之後,巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件,巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油,在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股,持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格,價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃,並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量,他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時,投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想,在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上,身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅?!然而,並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量,他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭,其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信,展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣!》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信,他們從一個專業投資者的角度,解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文,聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年,他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣,每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信,這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時,正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期,而2020年來信時,也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心,我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信,但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題,以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式,1)100% 控股,任命管理層,可以接受經營的失敗,但對個人不當行爲零容忍;2)投資公開交易
巴菲特加倉西方石油到22.2%!兩位公募基金經理解讀最新股東信中的價值投資祕笈
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花一样的男子
花一样的男子
·
2023-03-13
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became a "blood debt"
3月10日,硅谷银行由美国存款保险公司正式接管,股票停牌。怪不得硅谷被接管前,挤提规模达400多亿美元。与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担。其实,硅谷的破产恰恰是美联储无节操放水、直升机撒钱导致美债收益率暴跌、储蓄户存款暴涨造成的。而这个周末的硅谷银行,资产规模2200亿美元,还持有大量的、流动性很好的美债。
Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became a "blood debt"
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See how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106466264","media":"IN咖","summary":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后,2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机:震撼世界的一周》(Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The Wor","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A decade after The collapse of Lehman Brothers, On September 12, 2018, CNBC premiered The original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\".</p><p>In this documentary, CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of the best-selling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews mostly people who were at the center of a maelstrom at the time, trying to show the public how the United States and the world came close to total economic collapse in 2008 and led to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of gripping interviews told. The top U.S. government officials interviewed, as well as the CEOs of major U.S. banks, had gathered to try to save Lehman from bankruptcy.</p><p>CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain and others from Wall Street described dramatic round-the-clock negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts his desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked the question again and again to those reunited for the documentary. They recalled the nightmares they faced a decade ago and shared the fate of world-wide finance.</p><p>The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to fail in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to the event as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett discussed some details of the crisis, the interlocking impact of regulation, institutions and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Their own considerations have all been talked about, and the handling of human nature among them is also very interesting.</p><p>He said, \"<b>Panic occurs when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is instant.</b>”</p><p>\"Crisis always comes at some point,<b>But I wasn't worried about the crisis because I managed my behavior properly.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just-right time distance makes Buffett's retrospective and thinking more of present significance.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse sparked a ripple effect that spread from the U.S. to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic Ocean</a>opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Let investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems spread.</p><p>At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking about the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles held.</p><p>This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read, and I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial behavior ever involved, but it turns out that all participants behave badly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that) people think that housing will only rise but not fall, and the residential market is $2 trillion. This is a very huge asset class.</p><p>People used it as currency (through asset securitization), but then people discovered that it wasn't all the way up.</p><p>They borrowed through real estate, which affected the incident from beginning to end of the rope.</p><p>People at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately package them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the mortgage lenders are paying too much monthly or misrepresenting their income seems to have no effect on them.</p><p>The people who refinance them are also involved.</p><p>In essence, [the people involved in it] have a huge speculative behavior in real estate. Fifty million of the 75 million American homebuyers are in the mortgage business, and only 25 million have avoided the shock. Fifty million borrowers get their homes through leverage, and many survive while the prices of their assets collapse.</p><p>It was the largest financial practice ever involved, but it turned out that all participants acted badly.</p><p>They believed (property prices only go up but not down), and when people believed certain ridiculous things, such things happened.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Did you worry that some of the hedge funds that held subprime loans collapsed in early 2008? Do you remember how you were feeling?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I have always assumed that if I have been involved in the American economy all my life, its value will rise dramatically over time, but there will be some stumbling along with it.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (where the future is going), I just try to adapt to what's happening.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from some of the leading Wall Street companies trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac shares. I know something could be wrong.</p><p><b>\"I wrote the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we would not invest in it (Lehman).\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>I don't know if you remember that after the fall of Bear Stearns and before the accident of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, you got a call from Richard Dick Fuld (Lehman Brothers Chairman and CEO) who told you that his stock had been sniped by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, anyone who says that to me, I highly doubt it. I like people who short sell Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Fuld said you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion, were you interested at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I am interested in listening to him finish.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How did you reply to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him, tell me what you think, first tell me your offer and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on that.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative thoughts. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me on the subject.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. Friday morning with some completely substandard endorsements, and he probably hoped I would finance Lehman, but he overpushed his pitch. I think he also realized that this was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, I flipped through Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we would not invest in it.</p><p>This note is still kept in my office.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What did you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that worried me about their finances and what was already happening on Wall Street at the time and probably happened to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best quick buyer in the $1 billion class.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Now we come to \"That Weekend\" on September 12, 2008. You're getting a call not from Lehman Brothers but from AIG asking if you're willing to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very valuable to you, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I declined.</p><p>Soon after, they were back in our sights. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem, we have to pay about $27 billion, we have the financial resources, but I don't know where we're going as a result.</p><p>The reality at the time was that they passed me a lot of material at 8pm on Friday night telling me they were in a crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>That means, they know that if we see something, we can act very quickly. We are probably the best quick buyer at the billion dollar level.</p><p>And in this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They could be going out of business within a few days, so they are also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I had been the Fed chair at the time and realized what was going on, I guess whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would have chosen to step in.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Many people still look back on the crisis as the collapse of Lehman Brothers that weekend as a pivotal moment in the crisis and debate whether the U.S. government should have stepped in at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the US government did not get involved).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, at the time everyone was like, \"Get these Wall Streeters to fuck off, we've had enough of them\".</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they wanted to do, they could do it. That might change somewhat under Dodd-Frank, but...</p><p>(Note: The Dodd-Frank Act, whose full name is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, is a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think that if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in then.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I had been chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and had seen everything going on in America, I think I would have chosen to step in whether I had the ability to step in or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think that's what I have to do in that role from a national interest standpoint.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise too much to the public. A lot of people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink dramatically, and a variety of personal issues.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be bailed out and the people will be protected.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Huge. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing bitterly at the time, but the American people would not buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in this whole thing is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch and AIG was bailed out. But then, people started to worry again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Morgan Stanley's Future.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>When Lehman went bankrupt and the biggest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, these things fell like (domino-like) one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress didn't realize the seriousness of the problem, and Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to recognize the seriousness of the problem made me rate him highly.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs, do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman asks you for money, you'll remember it.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think the Treasury has reliable people in power, the Fed has reliable people in power, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think Goldman will be intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero in the whole affair was Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) buying Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (note: actually, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 a share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At the time, no one knew exactly what Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said we would pay $30 (a share) for it, which is a fair price.</p><p>(If you don't,) Merrill Lynch's share price on Monday could be only 30 cents.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>You think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also did very well after being acquired, but at that point in time, if Bank of America hadn't announced the takeover on Sunday, it could have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>In the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to that history, are there things you feel you should have done but didn't do? Which investments have not been reached?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I could look back on any week and find something like this.</p><p>If at the time, we could have waited 4-5 months longer, Berkshire could have bought a lot of stuff cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.</p><p>I wrote my op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but after 4-5 months the price is much cheaper.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you wonder, where are these red lines that this system has taken us so much forward and still takes us back to the Great Depression?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there's always a way out of a crisis, and we've gotten out of a crisis.</p><p>At some point, the government must step up and step in to resolve the crisis. There is only one power in the whole world that allows people to reduce leverage, only one power (meaning government departments). If they fail to do so for some reason, a crisis will come.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.</p><p>In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panics in our country.<b>Panic occurs when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is instant.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if you have a doctorate, fear is fear.</p><p>I know people whose names you might be surprised to hear, at that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is immense.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and politics, governments and institutions now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memory. It was the same in 1929, and it took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something remains and engraves in their brains.</p><p>They want to know who caused their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>Who is to be blamed for falsely reporting a little income on the loan application when buying a house, thinking that the house price will continue to rise, so refinancing accordingly, etc.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So, is anyone to blame for this crisis? It's also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>A lot of people do really stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there's always some people doing something fake. To a certain extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market because you can make money easily from it, you can make new loans in Bakersfield, CA and then easily sell to Norway. Then, it becomes a chain of contracts, one securities contract based on the value of another.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to go to 300,000 pages of material to understand junior securities and subordinated securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.</p><p>The crisis will happen here.</p><p><b>\"Crisis always comes at some point, but I don't worry about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crises will always come at some point, but I am not worried about crises.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Why?</p><p><b>Buffett Because I manage my behavior properly, Berkshire will be healthy even if another crisis comes</b>。</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What are you worried about at the moment?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people into the market who don't understand it at all. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but don't really know it themselves.</p><p>When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>This is just too contagious.</p><p>It's a part of the capital system that will always exist. But you asked me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are we better equipped to deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>That's an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000+ pages of Dodd-Frank in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.</p><p>I have a variety of views, and I may be wrong in this view. But I (do) think that this bill may have prevented the Fed from handling the crisis quickly and cooperatively.</p><p>A terrible mistake, I would say. We need a powerful Federal Reserve!</p><p>You may not like it, it may do things you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million homebuying households, you need a force with the ability to reduce leverage.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you, how did you assess at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\" on CNBC at the time, and I had never used that metaphor before. I feel like I've never experienced anything like this.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of the level of immediate panic, the crisis was even worse than in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow hit a high of 381 before plunging. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has gone back to 250, and it hasn't put so many people in such widespread panic.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but then Wall Street could reach far less than it does now, probably due to 401K and a lot of other things. Residences will reach everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1679202057054","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Credit Suisse crisis triggers panic. See how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Credit Suisse crisis triggers panic. See how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IN咖</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-19 13:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A decade after The collapse of Lehman Brothers, On September 12, 2018, CNBC premiered The original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\".</p><p>In this documentary, CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of the best-selling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews mostly people who were at the center of a maelstrom at the time, trying to show the public how the United States and the world came close to total economic collapse in 2008 and led to the worst financial crisis in generations.</p><p>The documentary is a series of gripping interviews told. The top U.S. government officials interviewed, as well as the CEOs of major U.S. banks, had gathered to try to save Lehman from bankruptcy.</p><p>CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain and others from Wall Street described dramatic round-the-clock negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts his desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.</p><p>Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked the question again and again to those reunited for the documentary. They recalled the nightmares they faced a decade ago and shared the fate of world-wide finance.</p><p>The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.</p><p>When banks began to fail in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to the event as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".</p><p>In the interview, Buffett discussed some details of the crisis, the interlocking impact of regulation, institutions and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Their own considerations have all been talked about, and the handling of human nature among them is also very interesting.</p><p>He said, \"<b>Panic occurs when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is instant.</b>”</p><p>\"Crisis always comes at some point,<b>But I wasn't worried about the crisis because I managed my behavior properly.</b>”</p><p>This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just-right time distance makes Buffett's retrospective and thinking more of present significance.</p><p>Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse sparked a ripple effect that spread from the U.S. to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic Ocean</a>opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Let investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems spread.</p><p>At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking about the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles held.</p><p>This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read, and I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.</p><p><b>\"This is the largest financial behavior ever involved, but it turns out that all participants behave badly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that) people think that housing will only rise but not fall, and the residential market is $2 trillion. This is a very huge asset class.</p><p>People used it as currency (through asset securitization), but then people discovered that it wasn't all the way up.</p><p>They borrowed through real estate, which affected the incident from beginning to end of the rope.</p><p>People at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately package them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.</p><p>Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the mortgage lenders are paying too much monthly or misrepresenting their income seems to have no effect on them.</p><p>The people who refinance them are also involved.</p><p>In essence, [the people involved in it] have a huge speculative behavior in real estate. Fifty million of the 75 million American homebuyers are in the mortgage business, and only 25 million have avoided the shock. Fifty million borrowers get their homes through leverage, and many survive while the prices of their assets collapse.</p><p>It was the largest financial practice ever involved, but it turned out that all participants acted badly.</p><p>They believed (property prices only go up but not down), and when people believed certain ridiculous things, such things happened.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Did you worry that some of the hedge funds that held subprime loans collapsed in early 2008? Do you remember how you were feeling?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I'm not worried. Because I have always assumed that if I have been involved in the American economy all my life, its value will rise dramatically over time, but there will be some stumbling along with it.</p><p>Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (where the future is going), I just try to adapt to what's happening.</p><p>In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from some of the leading Wall Street companies trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac shares. I know something could be wrong.</p><p><b>\"I wrote the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we would not invest in it (Lehman).\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>I don't know if you remember that after the fall of Bear Stearns and before the accident of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, you got a call from Richard Dick Fuld (Lehman Brothers Chairman and CEO) who told you that his stock had been sniped by short sellers.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, anyone who says that to me, I highly doubt it. I like people who short sell Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Fuld said you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion, were you interested at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I am interested in listening to him finish.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How did you reply to him?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told him, tell me what you think, first tell me your offer and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on that.</p><p>Then he threw out some tentative thoughts. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me on the subject.</p><p>Hank called me at 67 a.m. Friday morning with some completely substandard endorsements, and he probably hoped I would finance Lehman, but he overpushed his pitch. I think he also realized that this was wrong.</p><p>Anyway, I flipped through Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we would not invest in it.</p><p>This note is still kept in my office.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What did you see?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I just saw a lot of things that worried me about their finances and what was already happening on Wall Street at the time and probably happened to them.</p><p><b>\"We're probably the best quick buyer in the $1 billion class.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Now we come to \"That Weekend\" on September 12, 2008. You're getting a call not from Lehman Brothers but from AIG asking if you're willing to invest $10 billion in it.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very valuable to you, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I declined.</p><p>Soon after, they were back in our sights. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem, we have to pay about $27 billion, we have the financial resources, but I don't know where we're going as a result.</p><p>The reality at the time was that they passed me a lot of material at 8pm on Friday night telling me they were in a crisis.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>That means, they know that if we see something, we can act very quickly. We are probably the best quick buyer at the billion dollar level.</p><p>And in this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They could be going out of business within a few days, so they are also very desperate.</p><p><b>\"If I had been the Fed chair at the time and realized what was going on, I guess whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would have chosen to step in.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Many people still look back on the crisis as the collapse of Lehman Brothers that weekend as a pivotal moment in the crisis and debate whether the U.S. government should have stepped in at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the US government did not get involved).</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, at the time everyone was like, \"Get these Wall Streeters to fuck off, we've had enough of them\".</p><p>A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they wanted to do, they could do it. That might change somewhat under Dodd-Frank, but...</p><p>(Note: The Dodd-Frank Act, whose full name is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, is a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think that if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in then.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If I had been chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and had seen everything going on in America, I think I would have chosen to step in whether I had the ability to step in or not.</p><p>The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think that's what I have to do in that role from a national interest standpoint.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So you think the Fed made a mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I don't know.</p><p>Because they have to promise too much to the public. A lot of people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink dramatically, and a variety of personal issues.</p><p>However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be bailed out and the people will be protected.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>How much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout at the time.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Huge. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing bitterly at the time, but the American people would not buy it.</p><p><b>\"I think the silent hero in this whole thing is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch and AIG was bailed out. But then, people started to worry again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Morgan Stanley's Future.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>When Lehman went bankrupt and the biggest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, these things fell like (domino-like) one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.</p><p>Congress didn't realize the seriousness of the problem, and Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to recognize the seriousness of the problem made me rate him highly.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs, do you remember that call?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman asks you for money, you'll remember it.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What were your thoughts at the time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I think the Treasury has reliable people in power, the Fed has reliable people in power, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think Goldman will be intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.</p><p>I think the silent hero in the whole affair was Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) buying Merrill Lynch on Monday.</p><p>I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (note: actually, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 a share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.</p><p>At the time, no one knew exactly what Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said we would pay $30 (a share) for it, which is a fair price.</p><p>(If you don't,) Merrill Lynch's share price on Monday could be only 30 cents.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>You think this is a big mistake?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also did very well after being acquired, but at that point in time, if Bank of America hadn't announced the takeover on Sunday, it could have been another Lehman Brothers.</p><p>In the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.</p><p><b>\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Going back to that history, are there things you feel you should have done but didn't do? Which investments have not been reached?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I could look back on any week and find something like this.</p><p>If at the time, we could have waited 4-5 months longer, Berkshire could have bought a lot of stuff cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.</p><p>I wrote my op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but after 4-5 months the price is much cheaper.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you wonder, where are these red lines that this system has taken us so much forward and still takes us back to the Great Depression?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there's always a way out of a crisis, and we've gotten out of a crisis.</p><p>At some point, the government must step up and step in to resolve the crisis. There is only one power in the whole world that allows people to reduce leverage, only one power (meaning government departments). If they fail to do so for some reason, a crisis will come.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>No. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.</p><p>In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panics in our country.<b>Panic occurs when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is instant.</b></p><p>Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if you have a doctorate, fear is fear.</p><p>I know people whose names you might be surprised to hear, at that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.</p><p>The power of fear is immense.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and politics, governments and institutions now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Yes, people's long-term memory. It was the same in 1929, and it took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something remains and engraves in their brains.</p><p>They want to know who caused their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.</p><p>Who is to be blamed for falsely reporting a little income on the loan application when buying a house, thinking that the house price will continue to rise, so refinancing accordingly, etc.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>So, is anyone to blame for this crisis? It's also a political issue.</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>A lot of people do really stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there's always some people doing something fake. To a certain extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market because you can make money easily from it, you can make new loans in Bakersfield, CA and then easily sell to Norway. Then, it becomes a chain of contracts, one securities contract based on the value of another.</p><p>I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to go to 300,000 pages of material to understand junior securities and subordinated securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.</p><p>The crisis will happen here.</p><p><b>\"Crisis always comes at some point, but I don't worry about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"</b></p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are you worried about another crisis coming?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Crises will always come at some point, but I am not worried about crises.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Why?</p><p><b>Buffett Because I manage my behavior properly, Berkshire will be healthy even if another crisis comes</b>。</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>What are you worried about at the moment?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>Rising asset prices attract people into the market who don't understand it at all. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but don't really know it themselves.</p><p>When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?</p><p>This is just too contagious.</p><p>It's a part of the capital system that will always exist. But you asked me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>Are we better equipped to deal with another crisis now?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>That's an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000+ pages of Dodd-Frank in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.</p><p>I have a variety of views, and I may be wrong in this view. But I (do) think that this bill may have prevented the Fed from handling the crisis quickly and cooperatively.</p><p>A terrible mistake, I would say. We need a powerful Federal Reserve!</p><p>You may not like it, it may do things you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million homebuying households, you need a force with the ability to reduce leverage.</p><p><b>Sorkin:</b>During that week, these people kept calling you, how did you assess at that time?</p><p><b>Buffett:</b>I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\" on CNBC at the time, and I had never used that metaphor before. I feel like I've never experienced anything like this.</p><p>Moreover, in terms of the level of immediate panic, the crisis was even worse than in 1929.</p><p>On September 29, 1929, the Dow hit a high of 381 before plunging. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has gone back to 250, and it hasn't put so many people in such widespread panic.</p><p>It hit Wall Street, but then Wall Street could reach far less than it does now, probably due to 401K and a lot of other things. Residences will reach everyone.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g\">IN咖</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106466264","content_text":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后,2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机:震撼世界的一周》(Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World)。在这部纪录片中,CNBC主播、畅销书《大而不倒》(Too Big to Fail)的作者安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金(Andrew Ross Sorkin)采访了多为彼时深陷漩涡中心的人物,试图向公众展现2008年的美国和世界是如何接近全面经济崩溃、且导致了几代人来最严重的金融危机。纪录片是系列扣人心弦的采访讲述。受访的美国政府最高层官员以及美国各大银行CEO们,他们曾聚集在一起,试图拯救雷曼兄弟免于破产。来自华尔街的CEO杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)、约翰·塞恩(John Thain)和其他人描述了戏剧性的全天候谈判。前美国财政部长汉克·保尔森(Hank Paulson)讲述了他意识到雷曼破产可能会拖垮全球金融体系的绝望时刻。如此规模的金融危机会再次发生吗?索尔金一次又一次地向因这部纪录片再度聚首的人提出这个问题。他们回忆着十年前曾面临的噩梦,曾与世界范围的金融命运呼吸与共。本文的主角是沃伦·巴菲特。2008年银行开始破产时,高管们向巴菲特求助,希望他在紧要关头提供资金支持。后来,他将这一事件称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”。巴菲特在访谈中,对于危机过程中的一些细节,对于监管、机构、市场环环相扣的影响,以及伯克希尔自身的考量,都有谈到,其中关于人性的拿捏,也很有意思。他说,“当人们害怕的时候,恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的,但恐惧是即时的。”“危机总会在某个时刻到来,但我并不担心危机,因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”这场纪录片,是在危机发生十年之后2018年推出。这样一个恰恰好的时间距离,让巴菲特的回溯与思考,更富有当下的意义。尤其在硅谷银行倒闭事件引发连锁反应,从美国蔓延至大西洋对岸的瑞士信贷,让投资者对欧美银行体系稳定性的担忧蔓延。这时候,回头去看巴菲特对于 2008 年危机事件过程中,思考的方式,对于决策信息赋予的权重,以及所持有的一贯投资原则,对我们都会很有启发。Eason的这篇翻译,很有悦读感,希望大家开卷有益。“这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为,但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。”索尔金:回到2008年,从大局来看,你认为是什么导致了2008年的危机。巴菲特:众多的支流汇聚形成了密苏里河。(但我认为最重要的因素在于)人们认为房产会只涨不跌,而住宅市场规模达到了2万亿美元。这是一个非常巨大的资产类别。人们(通过资产证券化)将其当做货币使用,但随后人们发现它并非一路上涨。他们通过房产举债,在这条绳子的从头到尾都对这次事件造成了影响。绳子顶端的人忙着签发一些明知道自己无需持有的地产抵押贷款,他们签发之后可以立刻打包卖给远在挪威的投资者。有些人通过这些贷款进行再融资,房贷人的月供是否太高、是否虚报了自己的收入似乎对他们没有任何影响。为他们提供再融资的人也参与其中。本质上,(参与其中人)对房地产有一个巨大的投机行为。7500万美国购房家庭中有5000万个家庭参与了房贷业务,只有2500万避免受到了冲击。5000万贷款家庭通过杠杆获得房屋,很多人赖以生存,而他们的资产价格出现崩溃。这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为,但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。他们相信了(房产价格只涨不跌),当人们相信了某些荒唐的事情时,这样的事情就会发生。索尔金:2008年早期,一些持有次级贷款的对冲基金倒下了,你当时感到担忧吗?你还记得你当时的心情吗?巴菲特:我没有担忧。因为我始终假设(如果)一生都参与到美国经济当中的话,它的价值会随着时间大幅上涨,但同时会伴随着一些磕磕绊绊。我们的经济体系决定了我们会发生一些周期性的疯狂,所以我从不尝试预测市场,我也不会去预测生意(未来的走向),我只是试着去适应所发生的一切。2008年的夏天,我确实接到了某家华尔街头部公司的电话,试图卖给我们几百亿美元(many,many,many billions)的房地美股票。我知道可能出了大问题。“我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码,我知道了我们不会对其(雷曼)进行投资。”索尔金:我不知道你是否还记得,在贝尔斯登倒下后、房地美和房利美出事前,你接到了迪克·福尔德(Richard Dick Fuld,雷曼兄弟董事长兼CEO)的电话,他告诉你,他的股票被卖空者狙击了。巴菲特:是的,任何人对我这么说,我都高度怀疑。我喜欢卖空伯克希尔的人,卖空者怎么会伤害到你?索尔金:福尔德说你有一个30-50亿的投资机会,你当时感兴趣了吗?巴菲特:我有兴趣听完他的讲话。索尔金:你如何回复他的?巴菲特:我告诉他,把你的想法告诉我,首先告诉我你的报价,然后我会知道我是否有兴趣对此做一些调查。接着,他抛出了一些试探性的想法。事实上,我还记得他问我能不能让汉克·保尔森(Henry“Hank”Merritt Paulson,时任美国财政部长)就此问题给我打电话。周五早上67点,汉克就给我打了电话,他提出了一些完全不合格的背书,他可能希望我会为雷曼提供融资,但他的推销用力过度了。我想他也意识到这样不对。无论如何,那天下午我翻开了雷曼的10K报告,它有250-300页长。我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码,我知道了我们不会对其进行投资。我的办公室现在仍保存了这份笔记。索尔金:你看到了什么?巴菲特:我只是看到了很多让我担心他们财务状况的东西,以及当时已经在华尔街发生、可能也发生在他们身上的情景。“我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。”索尔金:现在我们来到了2008年9月12日的“那个周末”。你现在接到的不是来自雷曼兄弟的电话而是来自AIG的电话,询问你是否愿意对其投资100亿美元。巴菲特:我告诉他们,不要指望我们,我知道时间对你们来说非常宝贵,所以不要把时间浪费在我们身上。所以,那个时间点上,我拒绝了。不久之后,他们重新回到了我们的视野。我当时说,我无法解决这个问题,我们要支付大概270亿美元,我们有这个财力,但是我不知道我们因此会去往何处。当时的真实情况是,他们周五晚上8点传给了我很多材料,告诉我他们正处于危机之中。索尔金:你觉得,他们打电话给沃伦·巴菲特意味着什么?巴菲特:这意味着,他们知道如果我们看到了某样东西,我们的行动可以非常迅速。我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。并且针对这个案例,他们知道我对保险业务很感兴趣。他们可能在几天之内就要倒闭,因此他们也非常绝望。“如果我是当时的美联储主席并且意识到发生的一切,我想无论我是否有能力介入,我会选择介入。”索尔金:很多人回顾这场危机时仍然将那个周末雷曼兄弟的倒下视作危机的关键时刻,并且争论那个时刻美国政府是否应该介入。第二天早上,纽约时报和华尔街日报都写了专栏文章赞扬(美国政府没有介入)。巴菲特:是的,当时所有人都想,“让这些华尔街的滚蛋,我们受够了他们”。很久以前,美联储主席说,无论他们想做什么,他们都可以这么去做。在《多德-弗兰克法案》下,这点可能发生一定的改变,但是……(注:《多德-弗兰克法案》全名是多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案,于2010年7月21日通过的美国联邦法律。通常被认为是奥巴马总统任期内颁布的最重要的法案之一。)索尔金:所以你认为,如果美联储想要介入,他们当时可以介入。巴菲特:如果我是当时的美联储主席并且看到了美国发生的一切,我想无论我是否有能力介入,我都会选择介入。最高法院可能把我当作罪犯逮捕,但我认为从国家利益的角度来看,那是我在身处那个角色必须做的。索尔金:所以你认为美联储犯了错?巴菲特:我不知道。因为,他们必须要向公众承诺的太多了。很多人面临失去自己的住宅、看到自己的资产大幅缩水,以及各种个人问题。然而,你要承诺AIG的所有员工都会得到救助、民众也会得到保障,这么做非常困难。索尔金:当时,汉克、美联储和其他需要救助的人身上的政治压力有多大。巴菲特:巨大。伯南克(时任美联储主席)、汉克·保尔森、蒂姆·盖特纳(Tim Geithner,时任纽约联储主席)以及乔治·布什当时正在激烈争论,但美国民众不会买账的。“我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是美国银行CEO肯·刘易斯,他买下了美林。”索尔金:雷曼兄弟破产了,美国银行收购了美林,AIG得到了救助。但之后,人们又开始担忧通用电气、高盛、摩根斯坦利的未来。巴菲特:当雷曼破产之后,商业票据的最大持有者是货币市场基金,这些事情像(多米诺骨牌一样)一个接一个倒下,而汉克和伯南克做的任何事情必须考虑来自国会的反应。国会没有意识到问题的严重性,布什认识到了。我没有投票给他,但是他能意识到问题的严重性让我给他打很高的分。索尔金:那周的晚些时候,我接到了来自高盛的电话,你记得那通电话吗?巴菲特:我记得那通电话。哈哈,当高盛找你要钱,你会记得的。索尔金:你当时的想法是什么?巴菲特:我认为财政部有可靠的人在掌权、美联储有可靠的人掌权、总统也是可靠的,只不过国会让我担忧。我认为高盛会完好无损,只要市场没有被完全关闭。我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是肯·刘易斯(美国银行CEO)在周一买下了美林银行。我想他得到了一些意见以30美元的价格买下美林(注:实际上,美国银行以每股约29美元的价格,斥资300亿美元买下美林)。他周六做出了决定,周日宣布收购。当时,没有任何知道美林银行到底值多少钱,但是他说我们会支付30美元(一股)的价格买下它,这是个公正的价格。(如果不这么做,)美林周一(的股价)可能只有3毛钱。索尔金:你认为这是个大错误?巴菲特:对于整个金融系统来说,这不是错误。美林在被收购之后也表现得非常好,但在那个时点,如果美国银行没有在周日宣布收购,它可能是另一个雷曼兄弟。在雷曼时刻,如果他们决定拿钱为雷曼纾困,他们就不得不告诉美林依靠自己生存下去,整个事情就会变得不一样。“信心是一步一步建立的,但恐惧是即时的。”索尔金:回溯那段历史,你是否有一些觉得自己应该做但没做的事?哪些没有达成的投资?巴菲特:我可以回顾任何一周,找到这样的事情。如果当时,我们可以多等待4-5个月的话,伯克希尔能以更便宜的价格买入很多东西。2009年3月的股价比2008年10月便宜得多。2008年10月下旬,我在纽约时报写了专栏文章,长期来看我是对的,但是4-5个月之后的价格要便宜得多。索尔金:你会不会思考,这个系统带我们前进了这么多,但仍然会让我们回到大萧条时期,这些红线在哪里?巴菲特:如果危机没有被妥善处理,可能会持续更长时间。但是总能走出危机,我们已经走出了危机。在某一个时刻,政府必须站出来介入解决危机。整个世界只有一种力量可以让人们降杠杆,只有一种力量(指政府部门)。如果他们由于某些原因没有这么去做,危机就会到来。索尔金:对于公众、新一代人来说,他们是否可以从这场危机中学到什么教训?巴菲特:没有。因为人们总会恐慌,这也是设立美联储的原因。19世纪时,我们国家有过各种各样的恐慌。当人们害怕的时候,恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的,但恐惧是即时的。而且,这不受人们智商的影响、就算是有博士学历,害怕就是害怕了。我知道一些人,你听到他们的名字可能会惊讶,在那个时候,他们选择只相信黄金、不相信其他任何事物。害怕的力量是巨大的。索尔金:你认为十年前的危机与现在的政治、政府和机构之间有什么联系、影响吗?巴菲特:是的,人们的长期记忆。1929年时也是这样,这(化解)需要很长时间。当他们感受到了极端的恐惧,有些东西会留下、刻在他们的脑中。他们想知道谁造成了他们的恐惧。他们确实也不应该责怪自己。我的意思是,不应该要求每个人都是金融专家。在买房时在贷款申请表上虚报一点收入,认为房价会继续上涨所以依此进行再融资等等,谁会因为这些事儿受到责怪。索尔金:所以,是否有人应该为这场危机负责呢?这也是个政治问题。巴菲特:很多人做了非常愚蠢的事情,但我不认为有人应该(为此负责)。我是说,始终有一些人在做一些虚假的事情。一定程度上,这些人被房地产市场所吸引,因为你可以从中很容易赚到钱,你可以在加州贝克斯菲尔德新发贷款然后轻易地卖到挪威。然后,它变成了一连串合约,一个证券合约的价值要基于另一个合约。我曾看过一份证券化产品,我不得不去看长达30万页的材料去理解初级证券和基于它的次级证券等等。而且,在相当一段时间,大家都安然无恙,所以大家都习惯了这种方式。危机会在此发生的。“危机总会在某个时刻到来,但我并不担心危机。因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”索尔金:你担心另一场危机的到来吗?巴菲特:危机总会在某个时刻到来,但我并不担心危机。索尔金:为什么?巴菲特因为我妥善地管好自己的行为,就算另一场危机到来,伯克希尔也会非常健康。索尔金:当下,你会担忧什么事情?巴菲特:资产价格上涨吸引了完全不理解它的人进入市场。人们因为资产增值而对它感兴趣,但并不是自己真正了解它。当你认为比你笨很多的邻居因资产价格上涨而变得富有,而你没有变富,你的配偶就会问你:你就不能也弄明白(然后赚大钱)吗?这实在是太具传染性了。这是资本系统永远会存在的一部分。但你问我现在哪一类资产正处于这种状态,我还没有观察到。索尔金:我们现在能更好地应对另一场危机吗?巴菲特:这是一个有趣的问题。我从没有完整读过2000多页的《多德-弗兰克法案》,我只读了概要。我有一个种观点,我的这种观点可能是错误的。但是我(确实)认为,这份法案可能阻碍了美联储快速、与多方合作地(处理危机)。我会说,这是一个可怕的错误。我们需要一个拥有强权的美联储!你可能不喜欢它,它可能做一些你不喜欢的事情,但是这个拥有10万亿住宅市场、7500多万购房家庭的国家,你需要一个有能力降杠杆的力量。索尔金:在那一周,这些人不断地打电话给你,在当时你如何评估的?巴菲特:我当时确实在CNBC将之称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”,我之前从没用过这样的比喻。我感受到我从没经历过类似的事件。而且,从即时的恐慌程度来讲,当时的危机甚至比1929年更糟。1929年9月29日,道琼斯指数触及高点381点后暴跌。我于1930年8月出生,道琼斯已经回到了250点,它没有让这么多人陷于如此大范围的恐慌。它打击了华尔街,但那时的华尔街能影响到的范围远不及现在,这可能是由于401K和其他很多事情造成的。住宅会触及到所有人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650394069,"gmtCreate":1678879713453,"gmtModify":1678879713453,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544220031107044","idStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[爱心] [爱心] [爱心] ","listText":"[爱心] [爱心] [爱心] ","text":"[爱心] [爱心] [爱心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650394069","repostId":"2319738701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319738701","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678754319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319738701?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 08:38","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Buffett sells right again? Car Circle Price Reduction Tide Raid, Fund Manager's Latest Interpretation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319738701","media":"券商中国","summary":"近日声势浩大的车企降价潮,传导至股票市场引发汽车股巨震,3月10日当天,A、H股市场汽车股纷纷大跌,多股日内跌超5%。 而若将时间线拉长来看,尽管年初出现反弹,但近半年汽车股整体呈震荡下跌趋势,汽车ETF下跌超20%。半年前开始的股神巴菲特对龙头股的减持,能否看成多米诺骨牌的第一张,还有待商榷,但目前投资界对于新能源车企贝塔行情的远去似乎已成共识。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Buy where no one cares, sell when people are buzzing. Recently, the huge price reduction tide of car companies has been transmitted to the stock market, causing a huge shock of auto stocks. On March 10th, auto stocks in the A and H share markets plummeted one after another, and many stocks fell by more than 5% in the day.</p><p>If the timeline is lengthened, despite the rebound at the beginning of the year, automobile stocks as a whole have shown a downward trend in the past six months, and automobile ETFs have fallen by more than 20%. It remains to be debated whether Buffett's reduction of leading stocks, which started six months ago, can be regarded as the first domino. However, at present, the investment community seems to have reached a consensus on the disappearance of the beta market of new energy vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Contradiction between production and sales triggers price reduction tide of car companies</b></p><p>\"In fact, the pressure of the whole vehicle link is very great. The competition between the original players is already very fierce, and new brands with Internet genes are constantly entering. It is difficult to judge who can come out, and the profit growth can't be guaranteed for a long time.\" In August last year, a fund manager in South China expressed his concern to reporters. He said that after the subsidy decline in 2023, car companies may fall into a price war.</p><p>In January of this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Taking the lead in launching the first shot of the price war of electric vehicles, the starting prices of the main models Model 3 and Model Y dropped to 229,900 and 259,900 respectively, with the highest drop of 48,000. Subsequently, new car-making forces such as Wenjie, XPeng, Zero Run and Lantu successively adjusted their selling prices.</p><p>Recently, the maximum subsidy reached 90,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600006\">Dongfeng Motor</a>It has set off a massive price reduction wave. According to incomplete statistics, up to now, there have been Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Buick,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>More than 30 automobile brands, including manufacturer subsidies or dealer price reductions, participate in it, among which the most obvious feature is that most of them are fuel vehicle brands.</p><p>Regarding the reason for the \"involution\" of prices among automobile manufacturers, Fan Ke, manager of Hony Yuanfang Automobile Industry Upgrading Fund, believes that in the past three years, the sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market have increased by leaps and bounds, while the total volume has not increased much. It has always been a stock substitution, and the pressure of joint venture fuel vehicle companies is increasing. Since the second half of 2022, they have vigorously promoted sales. After Tesla set off a price war in 2023, the pressure of fuel vehicles has further intensified. It has been observed that the sales pressure of fuel vehicles from January to February this year is very high, with a year-on-year drop of more than 30%.</p><p>In addition, the National VIB regulations for passenger vehicle emissions will be implemented in July 2023, and the market is also worried about inventory clearance similar to that in the second quarter of 2020. However, Fan Ke believed that there was a high probability that this situation would not happen. In the field of passenger cars, the complete National VI B standard is not much different from the National VI A cost. Most car companies have chosen to develop National VI B products in one step, so the actual impact is very limited.</p><p>However, I have to admit that \"destocking\" is a key issue faced by many car companies. Not only fuel vehicles, but also new energy vehicles at present. Shi Cheng, SDIC UBS Fund, believes that basically most links in the industrial chain have production capacity greater than sales volume. The follow-up may enter the time of price war, and the fierce competition between electric vehicles, power batteries and parts will accelerate the process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy.</p><p>\"Enterprises have entered the range of brutal price war, which is disadvantageous for those enterprises whose competitiveness is not strong, profitability is not strong enough, technology is not good enough, or the scale effect is not large enough.\" Xu Chengcheng, fund manager of Cathay Pacific CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF, believes that in such a competitive environment, the higher the market share and the stronger the vertical integration ability, the car companies are actually dominant. For those enterprises that rely on suppliers or upstream components, the pressure is relatively large.</p><p>But everything has its two sides. Xu Chengcheng further said that under the current weak sales expectation, price reduction can stimulate consumption very well. At the same time, it can also encourage enterprises to gain more market share, so as to further enhance their own product strength, such as using more and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving related technologies, parts and products and more. After all, as a growing industry, automobile products become stronger and stronger, and more and more consumers will pay the bill.</p><p><b>Slipped into correction after high valuation</b></p><p>\"Previously, the market was mainly due to the expectation of intelligence and new energy, which gave vehicle companies a relatively high valuation.\" In the view of the aforementioned South China fund manager, after the valuation of vehicle companies that met the above expectations was raised, the market differences began to increase, and the stock price was more likely to fluctuate due to the disturbance of market news. This is one of the reasons for the recent sharp fluctuation of the stock prices of related car companies.</p><p>In fact, the investment disagreement for OEM companies began in the second half of last year, and one of the landmark events was Buffett's reduction of leading stocks. In June last year, BYD, the leading car company with the highest expectations of intelligence and new energy, was at the forefront of both vehicle and battery businesses, and its market value once rushed to one trillion yuan. At that time, some market voices were optimistic that BYD's market value would continue to rush to 1.5 trillion yuan. However, Buffett, the stock god who is regarded as the \"weather vane\" in the investment community, began to reduce his holdings of BYD Hong Kong stocks that have been holding positions for 14 years.</p><p>Looking back, in 2008, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway bought 225 million BYD Hong Kong shares at a price of HK$ 8/share, and has held them for 14 years since then. In June 2022, BYD Hong Kong shares once rose to HK$ 333/share, an increase of more than 40 times compared with Buffett's purchase price. Two months later, in August 2022, Buffett began reducing his holdings for the first time. As of the latest disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9th, Berkshire Hathaway's shareholding in BYD's Hong Kong shares is about 130 million shares.</p><p>In other words, in about half a year, Buffett has reduced his holdings by about 95 million shares, and the number of positions has been reduced by more than 40%. Observing the stock price trend of BYD Hong Kong stocks in the past six months, it only rebounded at the beginning of this year, and the overall trend still fluctuated downward. On March 10th, it fell by more than 8%, and the latest closing price was HK$ 201.2/share, which has been retracted by nearly 40% from the historical high.</p><p>It should also be noted that in terms of A shares, although the number of shares held by Public Offering of Fund in BYD continued to rise in the fourth quarter of last year, it fell out of the top ten shares of Public Offering of Fund. According to Wind statistics, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, BYD was heavily held by 631 funds with 132,024,500 shares, accounting for 11.33% of the outstanding shares. In the fourth quarter, it was increased by 716,800 shares.</p><p><b>Beta of new energy vehicle industry may have peaked</b></p><p>Based on the present, we need to be more cautious about the investment in new energy vehicles. In the view of some fund managers, the industry beta of new energy vehicles may have peaked.</p><p>\"At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 30%. What does this mean?\" A fund manager in Beijing said, on the one hand, it is an affirmation of the industry's past high growth; On the other hand, it is a prompt signal that the pressure on the industry will increase in the future. The new energy vehicle industry has entered a competitive market. In this new market stage, with the increase of the total social output of products and the decline of prices, the profit growth rate of leading companies will also be challenged.</p><p>\"New energy vehicles will be very prosperous in the future, but there should be no such state as explosive growth in the past and making money in all subdivisions.\" Xu Chengcheng believes that there are two main lines of investment in new energy vehicles, one is electrification and the other is intelligence. Among them, in the track of electrification (or electrification rate improvement), the current pressure is still relatively large. Electrification is essentially a process of cost reduction and efficiency increase, mainly in the field of electric and battery. Now, because the price of raw materials is relatively high, the profitability of related enterprises on the path of electrification is under great pressure. On the intelligent track, Xu Chengcheng feels more growth. When the products are made better and better, and the experience of consumers and drivers is better and better, more people will naturally choose such products.</p><p>Gan Chuanqi, director of the growth investment department of Zhongrong Fund, also said that in the era of new energy vehicles, electrification and intelligence are the two major trends of China's automobile industry. Chinese brands not only have the first-mover advantage in electrification and intelligence, but also have the advantages of low cost and quick response. However, growth not only represents growth space and market prospects, but also means potential risks and more uncertainties. We need to pay attention to growth with quality and barriers.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett sells right again? Car Circle Price Reduction Tide Raid, Fund Manager's Latest Interpretation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett sells right again? Car Circle Price Reduction Tide Raid, Fund Manager's Latest Interpretation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">券商中国</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-14 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Buy where no one cares, sell when people are buzzing. Recently, the huge price reduction tide of car companies has been transmitted to the stock market, causing a huge shock of auto stocks. On March 10th, auto stocks in the A and H share markets plummeted one after another, and many stocks fell by more than 5% in the day.</p><p>If the timeline is lengthened, despite the rebound at the beginning of the year, automobile stocks as a whole have shown a downward trend in the past six months, and automobile ETFs have fallen by more than 20%. It remains to be debated whether Buffett's reduction of leading stocks, which started six months ago, can be regarded as the first domino. However, at present, the investment community seems to have reached a consensus on the disappearance of the beta market of new energy vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Contradiction between production and sales triggers price reduction tide of car companies</b></p><p>\"In fact, the pressure of the whole vehicle link is very great. The competition between the original players is already very fierce, and new brands with Internet genes are constantly entering. It is difficult to judge who can come out, and the profit growth can't be guaranteed for a long time.\" In August last year, a fund manager in South China expressed his concern to reporters. He said that after the subsidy decline in 2023, car companies may fall into a price war.</p><p>In January of this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Taking the lead in launching the first shot of the price war of electric vehicles, the starting prices of the main models Model 3 and Model Y dropped to 229,900 and 259,900 respectively, with the highest drop of 48,000. Subsequently, new car-making forces such as Wenjie, XPeng, Zero Run and Lantu successively adjusted their selling prices.</p><p>Recently, the maximum subsidy reached 90,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600006\">Dongfeng Motor</a>It has set off a massive price reduction wave. According to incomplete statistics, up to now, there have been Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Buick,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>More than 30 automobile brands, including manufacturer subsidies or dealer price reductions, participate in it, among which the most obvious feature is that most of them are fuel vehicle brands.</p><p>Regarding the reason for the \"involution\" of prices among automobile manufacturers, Fan Ke, manager of Hony Yuanfang Automobile Industry Upgrading Fund, believes that in the past three years, the sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market have increased by leaps and bounds, while the total volume has not increased much. It has always been a stock substitution, and the pressure of joint venture fuel vehicle companies is increasing. Since the second half of 2022, they have vigorously promoted sales. After Tesla set off a price war in 2023, the pressure of fuel vehicles has further intensified. It has been observed that the sales pressure of fuel vehicles from January to February this year is very high, with a year-on-year drop of more than 30%.</p><p>In addition, the National VIB regulations for passenger vehicle emissions will be implemented in July 2023, and the market is also worried about inventory clearance similar to that in the second quarter of 2020. However, Fan Ke believed that there was a high probability that this situation would not happen. In the field of passenger cars, the complete National VI B standard is not much different from the National VI A cost. Most car companies have chosen to develop National VI B products in one step, so the actual impact is very limited.</p><p>However, I have to admit that \"destocking\" is a key issue faced by many car companies. Not only fuel vehicles, but also new energy vehicles at present. Shi Cheng, SDIC UBS Fund, believes that basically most links in the industrial chain have production capacity greater than sales volume. The follow-up may enter the time of price war, and the fierce competition between electric vehicles, power batteries and parts will accelerate the process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy.</p><p>\"Enterprises have entered the range of brutal price war, which is disadvantageous for those enterprises whose competitiveness is not strong, profitability is not strong enough, technology is not good enough, or the scale effect is not large enough.\" Xu Chengcheng, fund manager of Cathay Pacific CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF, believes that in such a competitive environment, the higher the market share and the stronger the vertical integration ability, the car companies are actually dominant. For those enterprises that rely on suppliers or upstream components, the pressure is relatively large.</p><p>But everything has its two sides. Xu Chengcheng further said that under the current weak sales expectation, price reduction can stimulate consumption very well. At the same time, it can also encourage enterprises to gain more market share, so as to further enhance their own product strength, such as using more and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving related technologies, parts and products and more. After all, as a growing industry, automobile products become stronger and stronger, and more and more consumers will pay the bill.</p><p><b>Slipped into correction after high valuation</b></p><p>\"Previously, the market was mainly due to the expectation of intelligence and new energy, which gave vehicle companies a relatively high valuation.\" In the view of the aforementioned South China fund manager, after the valuation of vehicle companies that met the above expectations was raised, the market differences began to increase, and the stock price was more likely to fluctuate due to the disturbance of market news. This is one of the reasons for the recent sharp fluctuation of the stock prices of related car companies.</p><p>In fact, the investment disagreement for OEM companies began in the second half of last year, and one of the landmark events was Buffett's reduction of leading stocks. In June last year, BYD, the leading car company with the highest expectations of intelligence and new energy, was at the forefront of both vehicle and battery businesses, and its market value once rushed to one trillion yuan. At that time, some market voices were optimistic that BYD's market value would continue to rush to 1.5 trillion yuan. However, Buffett, the stock god who is regarded as the \"weather vane\" in the investment community, began to reduce his holdings of BYD Hong Kong stocks that have been holding positions for 14 years.</p><p>Looking back, in 2008, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway bought 225 million BYD Hong Kong shares at a price of HK$ 8/share, and has held them for 14 years since then. In June 2022, BYD Hong Kong shares once rose to HK$ 333/share, an increase of more than 40 times compared with Buffett's purchase price. Two months later, in August 2022, Buffett began reducing his holdings for the first time. As of the latest disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9th, Berkshire Hathaway's shareholding in BYD's Hong Kong shares is about 130 million shares.</p><p>In other words, in about half a year, Buffett has reduced his holdings by about 95 million shares, and the number of positions has been reduced by more than 40%. Observing the stock price trend of BYD Hong Kong stocks in the past six months, it only rebounded at the beginning of this year, and the overall trend still fluctuated downward. On March 10th, it fell by more than 8%, and the latest closing price was HK$ 201.2/share, which has been retracted by nearly 40% from the historical high.</p><p>It should also be noted that in terms of A shares, although the number of shares held by Public Offering of Fund in BYD continued to rise in the fourth quarter of last year, it fell out of the top ten shares of Public Offering of Fund. According to Wind statistics, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, BYD was heavily held by 631 funds with 132,024,500 shares, accounting for 11.33% of the outstanding shares. In the fourth quarter, it was increased by 716,800 shares.</p><p><b>Beta of new energy vehicle industry may have peaked</b></p><p>Based on the present, we need to be more cautious about the investment in new energy vehicles. In the view of some fund managers, the industry beta of new energy vehicles may have peaked.</p><p>\"At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 30%. What does this mean?\" A fund manager in Beijing said, on the one hand, it is an affirmation of the industry's past high growth; On the other hand, it is a prompt signal that the pressure on the industry will increase in the future. The new energy vehicle industry has entered a competitive market. In this new market stage, with the increase of the total social output of products and the decline of prices, the profit growth rate of leading companies will also be challenged.</p><p>\"New energy vehicles will be very prosperous in the future, but there should be no such state as explosive growth in the past and making money in all subdivisions.\" Xu Chengcheng believes that there are two main lines of investment in new energy vehicles, one is electrification and the other is intelligence. Among them, in the track of electrification (or electrification rate improvement), the current pressure is still relatively large. Electrification is essentially a process of cost reduction and efficiency increase, mainly in the field of electric and battery. Now, because the price of raw materials is relatively high, the profitability of related enterprises on the path of electrification is under great pressure. On the intelligent track, Xu Chengcheng feels more growth. When the products are made better and better, and the experience of consumers and drivers is better and better, more people will naturally choose such products.</p><p>Gan Chuanqi, director of the growth investment department of Zhongrong Fund, also said that in the era of new energy vehicles, electrification and intelligence are the two major trends of China's automobile industry. Chinese brands not only have the first-mover advantage in electrification and intelligence, but also have the advantages of low cost and quick response. However, growth not only represents growth space and market prospects, but also means potential risks and more uncertainties. We need to pay attention to growth with quality and barriers.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2023-03-13/doc-imyksqvf8808269.shtml\">券商中国</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358f056a9bb38ecb12a7807cc060ce83","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","01211":"比亚迪股份","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","002594":"比亚迪","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2023-03-13/doc-imyksqvf8808269.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2319738701","content_text":"买在无人问津处,卖在人声鼎沸时。近日声势浩大的车企降价潮,传导至股票市场引发汽车股巨震,3月10日当天,A、H股市场汽车股纷纷大跌,多股日内跌超5%。而若将时间线拉长来看,尽管年初出现反弹,但近半年汽车股整体呈震荡下跌趋势,汽车ETF下跌超20%。半年前开始的股神巴菲特对龙头股的减持,能否看成多米诺骨牌的第一张,还有待商榷,但目前投资界对于新能源车企贝塔行情的远去似乎已成共识。产销矛盾引发车企降价潮“整车环节其实压力非常大,原有玩家竞争已经十分激烈,还有具备互联网基因的新品牌不断进入,谁能走出来很难判断,盈利增长也无法长期保证”,去年8月,华南一位基金经理曾对记者表达了他的担忧,他表示在2023年补贴退坡之后,车企可能会陷入价格战。今年1月,特斯拉率先打响电动车价格战的第一枪,主力车型Model 3和Model Y起售价分别降至22.99万和25.99万,最高降幅达4.8万。随后,问界、小鹏、零跑、岚图等造车新势力相继调整售价。近日,最高补贴达9万的东风汽车更是掀起了一场声势浩大的降价潮,据不完全统计,截至目前已有包括奔驰、宝马、奥迪、别克、比亚迪等在内的超30个汽车品牌通过厂家补贴或经销商降价等方式参与其中,其中最为明显的特征就是燃油车品牌居多。关于此次汽车厂商间价格“内卷”的原因,弘毅远方汽车产业升级基金经理樊可认为,近三年来,国内市场新能源车销量突飞猛进,同时总量并没有太多增长,一直是存量替代,合资燃油车企压力越来越大,从2022年下半年就开始大力促销,2023年特斯拉掀起价格战之后燃油车压力进一步加剧。据观察,燃油车在今年1-2月销售压力非常大,同比下跌超30%。此外,乘用车排放国六B法规将于2023年7月开始执行,市场也担心会出现类似2020年二季度的清库存情况。不过,樊可认为,这种情况大概率不会发生。乘用车领域,完整的国六B标准,与国六A成本差异并不大,绝大部分车企都选择了一步到位研发国六B产品,所以实际影响非常有限。但不得不承认,“去库存”是摆在众多车企面前的关键课题。不仅燃油车,目前新能源汽车也已经出现了过剩。国投瑞银基金施成认为,基本上产业链上大部分环节,都已经是产能大于销量。后续可能将会进入价格战的时间,而电动汽车、动力电池和零部件激烈竞争,会加速新能源替代燃油车的过程。“企业进入残酷价格战的区间,这对于那些竞争力不强、盈利能力不够强、技术不够好,或者说规模化效应不够大的企业来说是比较不利的。”国泰中证新能源汽车ETF基金经理徐成城认为,在这样的竞争环境之下,市占率越高,垂直一体化能力越强的车企其实才是占优的。对于那些依赖供应商,或者是依赖上游零部件的企业,压力是比较大的。但任何事情都有其双面性。徐成城进一步表示,在目前销售预期比较疲弱的情况下,降价可以很好的刺激消费,与此同时,还能激励企业为了获得更多市场份额,从而进一步提升自身产品力,比如使用更多与智能驾驶相关的技术、零件和产品等等。毕竟汽车作为成长性行业,产品越来越强,就会有越来越多的消费者买单。估值高企后陷入调整“之前市场主要是因为智能化、新能源化的预期,给了整车企业比较高的估值。”在前述华南基金经理看来,符合上述预期的整车企业估值被拔高后,市场分歧开始加大,股价更易因市场消息的扰动加剧波动,这就是近期相关车企股价大幅波动的原因之一。事实上,对于整车企业的投资分歧从去年下半年就开始了,其中一个颇具标志性的事件就是巴菲特对龙头股的减持。去年6月,智能化、新能源化预期最高,整车和电池业务都走在前列的车企龙头比亚迪,市值一度冲向万亿,彼时有市场声音看好比亚迪市值继续冲至1.5万亿。然而,被视作投资界“风向标”的股神巴菲特却开始减持已持仓14年的比亚迪港股。回溯来看,2008年,巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦以8港元/股的价格买入了2.25亿股比亚迪港股,此后持有时间长达14年,2022年6月,比亚迪港股一度上涨至333港元/股,相较巴菲特的买入价涨幅超40倍。两个月后,2022年8月,巴菲特开始首度减持。截至港交所在2月9日的最新一次披露,伯克希尔哈撒韦对比亚迪港股的持股数量约为1.3亿股。也就是说,半年左右时间,巴菲特累计减持约9500万股,持仓数量已降低超四成。而观察这半年来比亚迪港股的股价走势,仅在今年年初出现回弹,整体仍保持震荡下行,3月10日下跌超8%,最新报收201.2港元/股,较历史高点已回调近四成。同样需要注意的是,A股方面,尽管比亚迪在去年四季度遭公募基金重仓持股数量继续攀升,但却跌出公募基金十大重仓股之外。Wind数据统计显示,截至2022年四季度末,比亚迪被631只基金重仓持有13202.45万股,持股占流通股比例达11.33%,四季度被累计加仓71.68万股。新能源车行业贝塔或已见顶立足当下,对于新能源车的投资,需要更加慎重。在部分基金经理看来,新能源车的行业贝塔或已见顶。“目前国内新能源车的渗透率已经达到了30%,这意味着什么?”北京一位基金经理表示,一方面,是对行业过去高增长的肯定;另一方面,是行业未来压力将增大的提示信号。新能源车行业已经步入竞争型市场,在这个新的市场阶段,随着产品社会总产量的提高、价格的下探,龙头公司的利润增速也会受到挑战。“新能源汽车未来还会很景气,但是像过去呈爆发式增长、所有细分领域都赚钱的这种状态大概率应该不会有了。”徐成城认为,新能源车投资主线有两条,一个是电动化,另一个就是智能化。其中,在电动化(或者电动化率提升)这条赛道,目前面临的压力还比较大。电动化本质上就是降本增效的过程,主要是在电动、电池这一块降本增效。现在因为原料价格比较高,使得电动化这一条路径上相关企业的盈利能力大幅承压。而在智能化的赛道上,徐成城觉得更有成长性。把产品做得越来越好,让消费者、驾驶者的体验越来越好的情况下,自然而然会有更多的人选择这样的产品。中融基金成长投资部总监甘传琦也表示,进入新能源车时代,电动化和智能化是中国汽车行业的两大趋势。中国品牌不仅在电动化智能化方面具有先发优势,而且具有低成本、快速响应优势。不过,成长性不仅代表成长空间和市场前景,也意味着潜在风险和更多的不确定性,需要关注有质量、有壁垒的成长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYDDY":0.9,"01211":0.9,"BRK.B":1,"002594":0.9,"BRK.A":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650395892,"gmtCreate":1678879400819,"gmtModify":1678879400819,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544220031107044","idStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[比心] 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[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650395892","repostId":"627213766","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627213766,"gmtCreate":1678345260000,"gmtModify":1678347399219,"author":{"id":"3524105276229621","authorId":"3524105276229621","name":"聪明投资人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a73a0ae6395ff58b664544b077c69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105276229621","idStr":"3524105276229621"},"themes":[],"title":"巴菲特加倉西方石油到22.2%!兩位公募基金經理解讀最新股東信中的價值投資祕笈","htmlText":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後,巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件,巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油,在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股,持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格,價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃,並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量,他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時,投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想,在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上,身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅?!然而,並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量,他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭,其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信,展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣!》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信,他們從一個專業投資者的角度,解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文,聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年,他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣,每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信,這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時,正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期,而2020年來信時,也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心,我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信,但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題,以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式,1)100% 控股,任命管理層,可以接受經營的失敗,但對個人不當行爲零容忍;2)投資公開交易","listText":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後,巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件,巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油,在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股,持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格,價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃,並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量,他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時,投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想,在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上,身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅?!然而,並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量,他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭,其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信,展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣!》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信,他們從一個專業投資者的角度,解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文,聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年,他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣,每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信,這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時,正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期,而2020年來信時,也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心,我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信,但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題,以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式,1)100% 控股,任命管理層,可以接受經營的失敗,但對個人不當行爲零容忍;2)投資公開交易","text":"在去年連續加註西方石油之後,巴菲特在去年9月停歇了“收購戰車”。直到本週。根據美國證券交易委員會3月7日公佈的文件,巴菲特的伯克希爾近日加倉西方石油,在一系列交易中以59.85美元至61.90美元的價格購買了近580萬股股票。目前伯克希爾持有西方石油超過2億股,持股比例在22.2%。根據當前62美元左右的價格,價值在124億美元。西方石油最近剛宣佈了一項3億美元的股票回購計劃,並將股息增加38%至每股18美分。巴菲特在執行投資戰略時非常重視公司管理層的質量,他之前就對西方石油首席執行官維奇·霍盧布讚不絕口。當巴菲特對一家公司持續下注時,投資者都會“豎起耳朵”。原來大家暢想,在今年2月的巴菲特股東信上,身爲“新晉愛股”的西方石油會佔到什麼樣的篇幅?!然而,並沒有。巴菲特在今年股東信中闡述了時間在投資中的力量,他提到了伯克希爾持股的幾家標普500巨頭,其中就包含西方石油。詳見《精譯全文 | 巴菲特最新股東信,展示“耐心投資者”的王冠與祕訣!》中歐基金價值策略組兩位基金經理——羅佳明、藍小康也讀了這封信,他們從一個專業投資者的角度,解讀了股東信中關於價值投資的思考。以下是全文,聰明投資者經授權分享給大家。行走世間92年,他的智慧啓迪人心羅佳明/文與全球投資者一樣,每年2月我們都在期待一封來自遠方“老”朋友的來信,這就是“股神”巴菲特致股東的信。回想起2021年來信時,正值俄烏戰爭爆發初期,而2020年來信時,也正處於疫情全球大爆發的時期。不確定的宏觀環境和波動的股票市場一直擾動着投資者們的內心,我們需要聽聽這位92歲的老人家怎麼說。2023年的這封信可能是巴菲特歷史上最簡短的股東信,但老巴還是非常深刻地討論了若干話題,以下是我們分享的幾點。投資的兩個方式伯克希爾有兩種投資的方式,1)100% 控股,任命管理層,可以接受經營的失敗,但對個人不當行爲零容忍;2)投資公開交易","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9554f5da6f4a85a39e4de3d7e0c39a","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ba5642bc044889a6a80a005be93f1e","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11cf8bb6cfdf4ac6934847efb83b6efb","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627213766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":650001473,"gmtCreate":1678721278293,"gmtModify":1678721278293,"author":{"id":"3544220031107044","authorId":"3544220031107044","name":"花一样的男子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97abfb216e576575759a6a4ab82e0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544220031107044","idStr":"3544220031107044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650001473","repostId":"2319208799","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319208799","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678681611,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319208799?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-13 12:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became a \"blood debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319208799","media":"观察者网","summary":"3月10日,硅谷银行由美国存款保险公司正式接管,股票停牌。怪不得硅谷被接管前,挤提规模达400多亿美元。与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担。其实,硅谷的破产恰恰是美联储无节操放水、直升机撒钱导致美债收益率暴跌、储蓄户存款暴涨造成的。而这个周末的硅谷银行,资产规模2200亿美元,还持有大量的、流动性很好的美债。","content":"<p><html><body><article>I don't know why, but banks in the United States always fail on weekends? Look at Bear Stearns and Lehman in 2008. Both collapsed over the weekend, and then U.S. regulators,<span>Federal Reserve</span>And the U.S. Treasury Department. This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>And no exception.</p><p>On March 10th, Silicon Valley Bank was officially taken over by the American Deposit Insurance Corporation, and its stock was suspended. Silicon Valley Bank was once the fastest-growing bank in the United States. At one point, annual deposit growth soared from $60 billion to $120 billion, far surpassing the largest bank in the United States, Best Morgan.</p><p>After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve used<span>Monetary policy</span>In the fight against the epidemic, household savings deposits once reached about USD 1 trillion, and broad money M2 increased by more than 25%. Many people are bullish on US stocks, thinking that these huge amounts of idle cash will one day enter the market and become stocks. Obviously, many people forget the principle of double accounting-there must be a loan.</p><p>For banks like Silicon Valley, the deposits of more than 100 billion dollars are filled with the biggest and bluest venture capital companies and technology upstarts in Silicon Valley, including Founder's Fund, the Founder Fund of Peter Thiel, the godfather of Silicon Valley. How should it manage liquidity? Since the Fed rate is zero, buy the safest in the world<span>Assets</span>— — Short-term U.S. debt. You can also eat some interest and earn a little money.</p><p>However, the good times didn't last long. By the end of 2021, inflation in the United States began to soar sharply, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to be unsure, and the yield of short-term U.S. bonds began to rise sharply at the same time, resulting in the plunge of U.S. bonds in 2022, which was the highest in the history of 1800 and more than 200 years. Suddenly, the world's safest asset becomes the eye of the storm (pictured).</p><p>Image from the author</p><p>At this moment, the positions of U.S. debt in Silicon Valley Bank began to lose blood. Even if it hasn't been sold yet, the bookkeeping needs to be<span>Market price</span>To calculate mark to market. Silicon Valley's market-denominated losses have exceeded its total equity. Ratings firms didn't lose a moment and began preparing to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>But deposit rates remain near zero, and the U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>Don't want to be harvested just like this, so I began to withdraw my bank deposits to buy money funds with a yield of close to 4% now. If Silicon Valley Bank raises interest on deposits significantly, it will earn less spread income and pay extra liquidity. At this point, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma.</p><p>Investment banks in Silicon Valley<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Seeing this commission opportunity, I began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell some U.S. debt portfolio and sell $2.25 billion of stock to replenish capital. This idea couldn't be worse: data forced to disclose during the financing roadshow showed that customers in Silicon Valley were withdrawing money on a large scale, and deposits in Silicon Valley were losing a lot. If it wasn't for the roadshow disclosure, the market didn't know the details. Now the market thinks that Silicon Valley is going bankrupt, which accelerates the squeeze, and then there is the scene at the beginning of this article. Since Silicon Valley is a big customer, with deposits far exceeding $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not suitable for the protection clause of the US deposit insurance cap of $250,000.</p><p>Because many other local banks are using similar methods for cash management, they are bound to face the same risks today, with short-term yields on U.S. bonds soaring. It also explains why markets are wishful thinking that the Fed will stop rate hike soon. Apparently, butts determine their heads.</p><p>Of course, now the Fed's monetary policy must consider the impact on the U.S. banking industry. Uncle Bao has always said recently that we should \"consider the data comprehensively the totality of data \". Last night, the market hid in the short end of U.S. debt out of safe-haven demand, and the yield began to drop sharply.</p><p>Many people continue to disagree with the historic inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk. This pattern is impossible to sustain. And if it turns around, the sky will crumble and the earth will crumble. Although the long-term risk is stable, the short-term risk is high. And we need to survive the short term to see the long term.</p><p>\"But this long-term forecast is not helpful for the moment. In the long run, we are dead early. The job of economists is too easy and useless. When the storm comes, economists can only tell us that the storm will always pass, and then the sea will be calm again.\" — Keynes</p><p><strong>Second Lehman?</strong></p><p>Now, the worry in the global market is: Will Silicon Valley Bank be relieved? Many bricks are rushing to tell each other that if American regulation doesn't act, Silicon Valley will become the second Lehman and bring down the entire American financial system. There is also a request for the Federal Reserve to reopen the gates to print money, although if it does, the dollar will soon become a ghost coin.</p><p>Before Monday, the market needs to see three bailout measures: 1) small savers below $250,000 are fully repaid; 2) Depositors above the deposit insurance ceiling of $250,000 are partially repaid, and it is guaranteed that in the future, depending on the sale and realization of Silicon Valley Bank's assets, these large depositors can get most of the repayment (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four largest U.S. banks take over Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>If these measures can be introduced, or at least most of them can be committed, and a path to defuse the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank is pointed out, confidence in the U.S. and global markets will gradually return to normal.</p><p>What's tricky now, however, is that less than 3% of depositors at Silicon Valley Bank have deposits with balances below $250,000. Others are big, blue and flourishing Silicon Valley venture capital companies, including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, Gaorong Capital, etc. Many Silicon Valley companies involve hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. No wonder before Silicon Valley was taken over, it squeezed more than $40 billion. Under such pressure, basically no bank can survive.</p><p>If the FDIC American Deposit Insurance Board is unable to support itself, can the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury turn the tide as they did during Bear Stearns and Lehman?</p><p>Unfortunately, American laws most likely won't allow it. If the Federal Reserve is to take action, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of \"systemic risk\"-but the current Silicon Valley is obviously different from the impact of the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman. The Fed's intervention must be \"broad-based\" and not benefit just one company. At the same time, the Fed cannot intervene in a bankrupt company that has been taken over. Nor can the U.S. Treasury use money that has not been approved by legislation in Congress, and now there is no rice for a smart woman.</p><p>Therefore, in the end, it seems that the FDIC has to carry it alone. The measures I mentioned above to save Silicon Valley, the first one about small savers, is easy to do. The second step of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay big savers has begun. It is reported that hedge funds have offered 60-80% to buy deposits in Silicon Valley Bank. If 60-80% of Silicon Valley assets can be liquidated at this time of crisis, the price should be higher after the panic in the US market eases. After all, the U.S. Treasury Bond trades as much as $650 billion a day. The third article about the big banks taking over seems to have no news yet.</p><p>(The news came out before the publication of this article: On March 12th, local time, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the FDIC issued a joint statement saying that from Monday, March 13th, depositors can withdraw all their funds. Any losses related to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank will not be borne by taxpayers.)</p><p>After a nearly 30% surge in VIX implied volatility on Friday, sentiment began to ease in international markets, with CFDs on overseas markets even rising slightly. Cryptocurrency closely related to Silicon Valley, Bitcoin returned to more than 20,000, and US dollar stablecoin returned to around 1 after experiencing a roller coaster market. These digital currencies are the most sensitive to system liquidity. (As shown in Figure)</p><p>Image from the author</p><p>Will the Fed open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley was precisely caused by the Federal Reserve's unscrupulous release of water and helicopter money, which caused the yield of U.S. bonds to plummet and the deposits of savers to soar. If Silicon Valley is used as an excuse to print money again, then the only shred of credit that the Federal Reserve has will go away with the wind.</p><p>When Lehman collapsed, its assets reached $640 billion, and its related derivatives contracts reached trillions of dollars. It was indeed a thunderous and full-blown momentum. This weekend, Silicon Valley Bank, with assets of $220 billion, also holds a large number of U.S. debt with good liquidity.</p><p>If there is any similarity between the two stories, it is that the current chief house officer of Silicon Valley Bank is the chief financial officer of Lehman back then. One man who took down two of the largest banks in the United States on his own is truly the Thanos of the American financial system.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became a \"blood debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, and U.S. debt became a \"blood debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">观察者网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-13 12:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>I don't know why, but banks in the United States always fail on weekends? Look at Bear Stearns and Lehman in 2008. Both collapsed over the weekend, and then U.S. regulators,<span>Federal Reserve</span>And the U.S. Treasury Department. This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>And no exception.</p><p>On March 10th, Silicon Valley Bank was officially taken over by the American Deposit Insurance Corporation, and its stock was suspended. Silicon Valley Bank was once the fastest-growing bank in the United States. At one point, annual deposit growth soared from $60 billion to $120 billion, far surpassing the largest bank in the United States, Best Morgan.</p><p>After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve used<span>Monetary policy</span>In the fight against the epidemic, household savings deposits once reached about USD 1 trillion, and broad money M2 increased by more than 25%. Many people are bullish on US stocks, thinking that these huge amounts of idle cash will one day enter the market and become stocks. Obviously, many people forget the principle of double accounting-there must be a loan.</p><p>For banks like Silicon Valley, the deposits of more than 100 billion dollars are filled with the biggest and bluest venture capital companies and technology upstarts in Silicon Valley, including Founder's Fund, the Founder Fund of Peter Thiel, the godfather of Silicon Valley. How should it manage liquidity? Since the Fed rate is zero, buy the safest in the world<span>Assets</span>— — Short-term U.S. debt. You can also eat some interest and earn a little money.</p><p>However, the good times didn't last long. By the end of 2021, inflation in the United States began to soar sharply, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to be unsure, and the yield of short-term U.S. bonds began to rise sharply at the same time, resulting in the plunge of U.S. bonds in 2022, which was the highest in the history of 1800 and more than 200 years. Suddenly, the world's safest asset becomes the eye of the storm (pictured).</p><p>Image from the author</p><p>At this moment, the positions of U.S. debt in Silicon Valley Bank began to lose blood. Even if it hasn't been sold yet, the bookkeeping needs to be<span>Market price</span>To calculate mark to market. Silicon Valley's market-denominated losses have exceeded its total equity. Ratings firms didn't lose a moment and began preparing to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>But deposit rates remain near zero, and the U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>Don't want to be harvested just like this, so I began to withdraw my bank deposits to buy money funds with a yield of close to 4% now. If Silicon Valley Bank raises interest on deposits significantly, it will earn less spread income and pay extra liquidity. At this point, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma.</p><p>Investment banks in Silicon Valley<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Seeing this commission opportunity, I began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell some U.S. debt portfolio and sell $2.25 billion of stock to replenish capital. This idea couldn't be worse: data forced to disclose during the financing roadshow showed that customers in Silicon Valley were withdrawing money on a large scale, and deposits in Silicon Valley were losing a lot. If it wasn't for the roadshow disclosure, the market didn't know the details. Now the market thinks that Silicon Valley is going bankrupt, which accelerates the squeeze, and then there is the scene at the beginning of this article. Since Silicon Valley is a big customer, with deposits far exceeding $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not suitable for the protection clause of the US deposit insurance cap of $250,000.</p><p>Because many other local banks are using similar methods for cash management, they are bound to face the same risks today, with short-term yields on U.S. bonds soaring. It also explains why markets are wishful thinking that the Fed will stop rate hike soon. Apparently, butts determine their heads.</p><p>Of course, now the Fed's monetary policy must consider the impact on the U.S. banking industry. Uncle Bao has always said recently that we should \"consider the data comprehensively the totality of data \". Last night, the market hid in the short end of U.S. debt out of safe-haven demand, and the yield began to drop sharply.</p><p>Many people continue to disagree with the historic inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk. This pattern is impossible to sustain. And if it turns around, the sky will crumble and the earth will crumble. Although the long-term risk is stable, the short-term risk is high. And we need to survive the short term to see the long term.</p><p>\"But this long-term forecast is not helpful for the moment. In the long run, we are dead early. The job of economists is too easy and useless. When the storm comes, economists can only tell us that the storm will always pass, and then the sea will be calm again.\" — Keynes</p><p><strong>Second Lehman?</strong></p><p>Now, the worry in the global market is: Will Silicon Valley Bank be relieved? Many bricks are rushing to tell each other that if American regulation doesn't act, Silicon Valley will become the second Lehman and bring down the entire American financial system. There is also a request for the Federal Reserve to reopen the gates to print money, although if it does, the dollar will soon become a ghost coin.</p><p>Before Monday, the market needs to see three bailout measures: 1) small savers below $250,000 are fully repaid; 2) Depositors above the deposit insurance ceiling of $250,000 are partially repaid, and it is guaranteed that in the future, depending on the sale and realization of Silicon Valley Bank's assets, these large depositors can get most of the repayment (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four largest U.S. banks take over Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>If these measures can be introduced, or at least most of them can be committed, and a path to defuse the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank is pointed out, confidence in the U.S. and global markets will gradually return to normal.</p><p>What's tricky now, however, is that less than 3% of depositors at Silicon Valley Bank have deposits with balances below $250,000. Others are big, blue and flourishing Silicon Valley venture capital companies, including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, Gaorong Capital, etc. Many Silicon Valley companies involve hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. No wonder before Silicon Valley was taken over, it squeezed more than $40 billion. Under such pressure, basically no bank can survive.</p><p>If the FDIC American Deposit Insurance Board is unable to support itself, can the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury turn the tide as they did during Bear Stearns and Lehman?</p><p>Unfortunately, American laws most likely won't allow it. If the Federal Reserve is to take action, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of \"systemic risk\"-but the current Silicon Valley is obviously different from the impact of the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman. The Fed's intervention must be \"broad-based\" and not benefit just one company. At the same time, the Fed cannot intervene in a bankrupt company that has been taken over. Nor can the U.S. Treasury use money that has not been approved by legislation in Congress, and now there is no rice for a smart woman.</p><p>Therefore, in the end, it seems that the FDIC has to carry it alone. The measures I mentioned above to save Silicon Valley, the first one about small savers, is easy to do. The second step of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay big savers has begun. It is reported that hedge funds have offered 60-80% to buy deposits in Silicon Valley Bank. If 60-80% of Silicon Valley assets can be liquidated at this time of crisis, the price should be higher after the panic in the US market eases. After all, the U.S. Treasury Bond trades as much as $650 billion a day. The third article about the big banks taking over seems to have no news yet.</p><p>(The news came out before the publication of this article: On March 12th, local time, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the FDIC issued a joint statement saying that from Monday, March 13th, depositors can withdraw all their funds. Any losses related to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank will not be borne by taxpayers.)</p><p>After a nearly 30% surge in VIX implied volatility on Friday, sentiment began to ease in international markets, with CFDs on overseas markets even rising slightly. Cryptocurrency closely related to Silicon Valley, Bitcoin returned to more than 20,000, and US dollar stablecoin returned to around 1 after experiencing a roller coaster market. These digital currencies are the most sensitive to system liquidity. (As shown in Figure)</p><p>Image from the author</p><p>Will the Fed open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley was precisely caused by the Federal Reserve's unscrupulous release of water and helicopter money, which caused the yield of U.S. bonds to plummet and the deposits of savers to soar. If Silicon Valley is used as an excuse to print money again, then the only shred of credit that the Federal Reserve has will go away with the wind.</p><p>When Lehman collapsed, its assets reached $640 billion, and its related derivatives contracts reached trillions of dollars. It was indeed a thunderous and full-blown momentum. This weekend, Silicon Valley Bank, with assets of $220 billion, also holds a large number of U.S. debt with good liquidity.</p><p>If there is any similarity between the two stories, it is that the current chief house officer of Silicon Valley Bank is the chief financial officer of Lehman back then. One man who took down two of the largest banks in the United States on his own is truly the Thanos of the American financial system.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303131235438418d560&s=b\">观察者网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202303131235438418d560&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2319208799","content_text":"不知道为什么,美国的银行总是在周末倒闭?看看2008年的贝尔斯登和雷曼,都是在周末轰然倒下, 然后美国监管部门、美联储和美国财政部介入。这次的硅谷银行也不例外。3月10日,硅谷银行由美国存款保险公司正式接管,股票停牌。硅谷银行曾是美国存款增长最快的银行,一度存款年增长从600亿美元飙升至1200亿美元,远远超过了美国最大的银行极品摩根。2020年新冠疫情之后,美联储用货币政策抗疫,家庭储蓄存款一度达到约10000亿美元,广义货币M2增长超25%。很多人看多美股,认为这些巨量的闲置现金总有一天会入市化身为股票。显然,很多人忘记了会计复式记账原则——有借必有贷。对于像硅谷这样的银行来说,一千多亿美元的存款,账本上全是硅谷最大最蓝的创投公司和科技新贵,包括了硅谷教父Peter Thiel的创始人基金Founder’s Fund,它应该如何进行流动性管理?既然美联储利率是零,那么就都买全世界最安全的资产——短期美债吧。还可以吃点利息,挣点小钱。然而好景不长。到了2021年底,美国通胀开始大幅飙升,美联储货币政策开始拿捏不住,短端美债收益率同时开始大幅上扬,导致了美债2022年的暴跌是1800年、两百多年有史以来之最。突然,全球最安全的资产变成了风暴之眼(如图)。图自作者此刻,硅谷银行账上的美债持仓开始血亏。即便是还没有卖,记账上也需要以市价来计算mark to market。硅谷的市价计价的损失已经超过了其股本总额。评级公司一刻也没有耽误,开始准备下调硅谷银行的评级。但存款利率依然接近零,美国老百姓也不想就这么眼睁睁地被收割,开始把银行存款取出来买现在收益率已经接近4%的货币基金。如果硅谷银行大幅上调存款利息,那么它的利差收入就会减少,还要支付额外的流动性。这时,硅谷发现自己进退维谷。硅谷的投行高盛看到了这个佣金机会,开始建议硅谷卖掉一部分美债组合,同时卖22.5亿美元的股票以补充资本金。这个主意,真是馊得不能再馊:融资路演时被迫披露的数据显示,硅谷的客户在大规模取钱,硅谷的存款大量流失。如果不是路演披露,本来市场并不知道详情。现在市场认为硅谷快破产了,更加速挤提,然后就是本文开头的那一幕。由于硅谷都是大客户,存款远超25万美元,因此硅谷银行95%以上的存款不适应于美国存款保险上限25万美元的保护条款。因为有很多其它地方性银行在使用类似的手段进行现金管理,在美债短端收益率飙升的今天,它们必然面临着同样的风险。这也解释了为什么市场一厢情愿地认为美联储将很快停止加息。显然,屁股决定了他们的脑袋。当然,现在美联储的货币政策必须考虑对于美国银行业的影响。鲍叔最近总是说,要“全面考虑数据 the totality of data”。昨夜,市场出于避险需求躲在美债短端,收益率开始大幅下降。很多人继续对于美债收益率曲线历史性倒挂不以为然。其实,收益率曲线的倒挂就是一种风险的扭曲。这种形态是不可能持续的。而它的扭转,必将天崩地裂。虽然长期风险稳定,但是短端风险的高企。而我们需要活过了短期,才能看到长期。“但这种长期预测对于当下毫无帮助。长期,我们早死了。经济学家这工作太容易了,太无用了。在暴风雨来临之际,经济学家只能告诉我们暴风雨总会过去,之后大海又将重归平静。” ——凯恩斯第二个雷曼?现在,全球市场的担忧在于:硅谷银行是否会被救济?许多砖家奔走相告,称如果美国监管不出手的话,硅谷就会成为第二个雷曼,扳倒整个美国金融系统。还有要求美联储重新开闸印钱,尽管如果再印,美币很快会变成冥币。在周一前,市场需要看到三个救助的措施:1)低于25万美元的小储户得到全额的偿付;2)高于25万美元的存款保险上限的储户获得部分偿付,并保证在未来一段时期内,视乎硅谷银行资产的出售变现情况,这些大储户可以得到大部分的偿付(比如80%);3)让美国四大银行之一接手硅谷银行。如果可以出台这些措施,或者至少可以承诺大部分措施,并指出化解硅谷银行破产的路径,那么美国乃至全球市场的信心将逐步恢复正常。然而,现在棘手的是,硅谷银行只有不到3%的储户存款余额低于25万美元。其它都是又大又蓝、盛极一时的硅谷创投公司,包括红杉资本、Paradigm、a16z,高榕资本等。很多硅谷公司涉及的资金高达几亿到几十亿不等。怪不得硅谷被接管前,挤提规模达400多亿美元。在这样的挤提压力下,基本没有银行可以存活。如果FDIC美国存款保险委员会独力难支,那么美联储、美国财政部是否能够像当年贝尔斯登、雷曼时期那样力挽狂澜?遗憾的是,美国的法律很可能不允许。如果美联储要出手,硅谷危机必须符合“系统性危机systemic risk”的定义 ——但现在的硅谷显然与当年贝尔斯登、雷曼倒闭的影响不一样。美联储的干预必须是有“广泛基础的broad-based”,而不能仅仅让某个公司受惠。同时,美联储不能干预一个已经被接管了的破产公司。美国财政部也不能使用没有经过国会立法批准的钱,现在巧妇无米。所以,最后看来还是要FDIC一个人扛。我以上提出的拯救硅谷的措施,第一条关于小储户的很容易做到。第二条关于变卖硅谷资产来偿付大储户的步骤已经开始。据闻,已经有对冲基金出价60-80%去买硅谷银行的存款。如果在此危难之际,硅谷资产可以变现60-80%,那么在美国市场恐慌缓和之后,价钱应该会更高。毕竟,美国国债每天交易6500亿美元之多。而第三条关于大银行接手,似乎暂时还没有消息。(本文发稿之前传出消息:当地时间3月12日,美联储、财政部、FDIC发布联合声明称,从3月13日周一开始,储户可以支取他们所有的资金。与硅谷银行破产有关的任何损失都不会由纳税人承担。)在周五VIX隐含波动率飙升近30%之后,国际市场的情绪开始缓和,海外市场差价合约甚至略升。与硅谷密切相关的加密货币,比特币回到两万以上,美元稳定币经历了过山车行情之后,重新回到1附近。这些数字货币对于系统流动性是最敏感的。(如图)图自作者美联储会因为硅谷银行而再次开闸放水吗?其实,硅谷的破产恰恰是美联储无节操放水、直升机撒钱导致美债收益率暴跌、储蓄户存款暴涨造成的。如果再次以硅谷为借口印钱,那么美联储仅有的一丝信用,也将随风而逝。当年雷曼倒闭的时候,资产规模达6400亿美元,关联衍生品合约规模几万亿美元,确有雷霆万钧、一发全身之势。而这个周末的硅谷银行,资产规模2200亿美元,还持有大量的、流动性很好的美债。如果说两个故事有什么雷同之处,那么就是硅谷银行现在的首席内务官是当年雷曼的首席财务官。一个人以一己之力放倒了美国两家最大的银行,真是美国金融系统的灭霸。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SIVB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}