To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
RonZ
+Follow
Posts · 22
Posts · 22
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
RonZ
RonZ
·
2020-11-20
ref mark
JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 pictures tell you the whole picture of the current situation of US stocks
导读:JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告,是我们必读,并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中,清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置,以及当下
JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 pictures tell you the whole picture of the current situation of US stocks
看
1.39K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
RonZ
RonZ
·
2020-11-14
Research Ref.
@秋木林:
1.$網易(NTES)$財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.$京東(JD)$財報看好,沒趕上$拼多多(PDD)$的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.$理想汽車(LI)$財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。
1.$網易(NTES)$財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.$京東(JD)$財報看好,沒趕上$拼多多(PDD)$的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.$理想汽車(LI)$財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。
看
1.93K
回复
1
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3550011845027848","uuid":"3550011845027848","gmtCreate":1586957954330,"gmtModify":1605320459843,"name":"RonZ","pinyin":"ronz","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d52cf55a7d61ed5ca3332f8ea3c3938","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":102,"tweetSize":22,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":51,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.87%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.09","exceedPercentage":"93.47%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":390539329,"gmtCreate":1605804671361,"gmtModify":1704962522712,"author":{"id":"3550011845027848","authorId":"3550011845027848","name":"RonZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d52cf55a7d61ed5ca3332f8ea3c3938","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550011845027848","idStr":"3550011845027848"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ref mark","listText":"ref mark","text":"ref mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/390539329","repostId":"1199570467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199570467","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605784535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199570467?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-19 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 pictures tell you the whole picture of the current situation of US stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199570467","media":"杰晶维基","summary":"导读:JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告,是我们必读,并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中,清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置,以及当下","content":"<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets series reports are articles that we must read and will definitely translate. In this illustrated report, it clearly depicts the position of major global asset classes and the U.S. stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. The following is our full-text translation of JP Morgan Guide To Markets in the third quarter, hoping to help you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Q3 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>1. Stock market</b></p><p>The S&P500 at the inflection point: The S&P500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009 to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>The S&P 500 valuation on June 30, 2020 is 21.72 X, and the average valuation level over the past 25 years is 16.39 X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and Stock Returns</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Earnings in all industries of the S&P 500 Index declined year-on-year in 2020H1, with the energy market experiencing the largest decline</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Source of EPS growth: The annualized growth rate of S&P500 EPS in 2020Q1 is-48.7%, and the annualized growth rate of profit margin among the three contributing factors is 47.3%, which is the main reason for the negative growth of EPS</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS Growth: The value relative to growth yield in 2020H1 is 0.97, and 56.1% of the stocks in the value index macro have a beta greater than 1</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Different styles of income and valuation: On a quarterly basis, the type with small market capitalization and high growth has the best income, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, the type with large market capitalization and high growth performed best, reaching 9.8%, followed by the medium market capitalization and high growth at 4.2%, and other types all showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Earnings and valuations of different sectors: On a quarterly basis, the consumer sector is the best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed best, reaching 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, and other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor performance: From 2005 to 2019, the momentum factor had the best return, reaching 11%, followed by the low volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small market capitalization factor had the lowest return at 7.9%, with the largest volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized income and annual correction</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The probability of a bear market and subsequently a bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Stock Market Since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>2. Macroeconomic market</b></p><p>Past U.S. Recessions</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and the composition of GDP: In 2020Q1, 67.7% of the nominal GDP of the United States is consumption, 17.9% is government expenditure, 12.9% is investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% is real estate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: U.S. confirmed cases, as well as deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumer assets are real estate, 21% pension, and 66% of liabilities are mortgages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income inequality in the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal Finance</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and economic cycle</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different educational levels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Dollar drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy rate: FOMC June minutes show that U.S. GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate in Q4 will reach 9.3%, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator PCE will be 0.8%; Long-term outlook US GDP growth at 1.8%, unemployment rate at 4.1%, PCEWEI at 2.0%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Rates of interest and inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>3. Fixed income market dynamics</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed rate of return and its relationship with the stock market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High-yield bonds: The average 30-year high-yield bond default rate was 3.56%, while the high-yield bond default rate as of June 30, 2020 was 4.85%;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: Government sector bonds were 103.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, which was at a historical high, household sector bonds were 75.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and non-financial corporate bonds were 74.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019; Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% at the end of the second quarter of 2020, a decrease from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative yield debt: As of May 31, 2020, the negative yield government debt held by the Japanese government was 5.35 trillion US dollars, the negative yield government debt held by the European government was 5.49 trillion US dollars, and the global negative yield corporate debt was 1.27 trillion US dollars</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Liquidity in the bond market: Bond inventories of major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of the total U.S. corporate bonds in the first quarter of 2020, an increase from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global monetary policy: It is predicted that the bond purchases of major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve still the largest bond purchases, a significant increase compared with 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global fixed income market: As of the end of 2019, the bond volume of the United States was US $41 trillion, the bond volume of other developed countries excluding the United States was US $47 trillion, and the bond volume of emerging markets was US $26 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Comparison of returns in fixed income market segments: From 2005 to 2019, the average yield of emerging US dollar bonds was the highest, at an annualized rate of 7.3%, but the volatility was also the highest, at 10.6%, followed by high-yield bonds, and ABS had the lowest yield</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global stock market: In the past 15 years, the U.S. (represented by the S&P 500) stock market has the highest average return rate of 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Sources of global stock returns: From 2005 to 2019, the factor that contributed the most to the return rate of the U.S. equity market was income growth, followed by dividends, and valuation multiples contributed the least; Currencies contribute negatively in emerging markets and European markets other than the UK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity returns: A stronger US dollar is detrimental to the returns of the international equity market, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to the international equity market; In 2019, the impact of the US dollar on the MSCI Global ex-US index returns was negative 10.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at the inflection point: The S&P 500 price gain from 2009 to June 30, 2020 was 401%, followed by an 8% correction, while the ACWI ex-U.S. equity market index gained 143% during the same period, followed by an 8% correction The magnitude is 19%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International stock returns and valuations: The earnings of global listed companies declined in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the U.S. stock market currently has the highest PE at 21.77 X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the service industry PMI index was 35.2, and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both of which were below the boom-bust line, but both rebounded significantly month-on-month; Global real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 was-1.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Confirmed cases and deaths worldwide</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global economic high-frequency activity index: developed countries have rebounded from the low bottom in March, but are considered to be below 0; Among developing countries, Japan, Taiwan and Russia recovered faster</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Service industry momentum: The service industry PMI indexes of major developed countries all rebounded in June 2020, with France reaching 50.3</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: Inflation rates in most mainstream countries around the world declined in May compared with April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Novel coronavirus pneumonia's financial support: Italy, Germany and Japan face the greatest financial support from novel coronavirus pneumonia, of which Italy's fiscal expenditure reaches 34% of GDP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was-6.8%, of which investment was-1.5%, consumption was-4.4%, and net exports were-1.0%; Fiscal deficit is expected to account for 14% of GDP in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging markets: The economic growth rate of emerging market GDP is expected to remain positive in 2020, but developed countries are expected to be negative, and the difference between the two has increased month-on-month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge funds: Macro hedge fund performance relative to hedge fund research index is expected to fall back in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the yield of private equity market is higher than that of MSCI ACWI global secondary market stock returns; In 2019, U.S. private equity funds completed raising but have not yet invested around US $1.2 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The Alerian MLP ETF tops 15.2% annualized in the alternative investment category, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond returns just 0.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: The price of gold on June 30, 2020 was US $1,801 an ounce, which is more consistent with the price adjusted for inflation rate, and the trend is more obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Global multi-asset allocation portfolio (25% S&P 500 Index, 10% Russell 2000 Index, 15% MSCI EAFE Index, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays US Composite Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays January-March Treasury Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity Index and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT Index) yielded 19.5% in 2019, and 6.6% annualized from 2005 to 2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: From 2007, mutual funds and ETFs have flowed into the bond market of US $2,611 billion, which has declined in 2020; $1,467 billion flowed into the stock market and $602 billion into other broad asset classes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>The average annualized return of the stock market over the past 20 years is 11.3%, the annualized return of bonds is 5.9%, and the return of the 50/50 portfolio is 8.9%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Among the alternative asset classes, REITs have the highest annualized rate of return in the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>At the end of the second quarter, 37% of Republicans rated the national economy as excellent or good, while only 11% of Democrats rated it as excellent or good</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>In 2020, a $100,000 deposit account can obtain a return of $280, but it needs $1,236 to pay the negative returns brought by inflation, $2,046 to eliminate the negative returns of education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate the negative returns of medical care</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>","source":"lsy1595209191943","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 pictures tell you the whole picture of the current situation of US stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase's latest report: 64 pictures tell you the whole picture of the current situation of US stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杰晶维基</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-19 19:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets series reports are articles that we must read and will definitely translate. In this illustrated report, it clearly depicts the position of major global asset classes and the U.S. stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. The following is our full-text translation of JP Morgan Guide To Markets in the third quarter, hoping to help you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Q3 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>1. Stock market</b></p><p>The S&P500 at the inflection point: The S&P500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009 to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>The S&P 500 valuation on June 30, 2020 is 21.72 X, and the average valuation level over the past 25 years is 16.39 X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and Stock Returns</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Earnings in all industries of the S&P 500 Index declined year-on-year in 2020H1, with the energy market experiencing the largest decline</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Source of EPS growth: The annualized growth rate of S&P500 EPS in 2020Q1 is-48.7%, and the annualized growth rate of profit margin among the three contributing factors is 47.3%, which is the main reason for the negative growth of EPS</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS Growth: The value relative to growth yield in 2020H1 is 0.97, and 56.1% of the stocks in the value index macro have a beta greater than 1</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Different styles of income and valuation: On a quarterly basis, the type with small market capitalization and high growth has the best income, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, the type with large market capitalization and high growth performed best, reaching 9.8%, followed by the medium market capitalization and high growth at 4.2%, and other types all showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Earnings and valuations of different sectors: On a quarterly basis, the consumer sector is the best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed best, reaching 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, and other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor performance: From 2005 to 2019, the momentum factor had the best return, reaching 11%, followed by the low volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small market capitalization factor had the lowest return at 7.9%, with the largest volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized income and annual correction</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The probability of a bear market and subsequently a bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Stock Market Since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>2. Macroeconomic market</b></p><p>Past U.S. Recessions</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and the composition of GDP: In 2020Q1, 67.7% of the nominal GDP of the United States is consumption, 17.9% is government expenditure, 12.9% is investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% is real estate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: U.S. confirmed cases, as well as deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumer assets are real estate, 21% pension, and 66% of liabilities are mortgages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income inequality in the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal Finance</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and economic cycle</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different educational levels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Dollar drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy rate: FOMC June minutes show that U.S. GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate in Q4 will reach 9.3%, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator PCE will be 0.8%; Long-term outlook US GDP growth at 1.8%, unemployment rate at 4.1%, PCEWEI at 2.0%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Rates of interest and inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>3. Fixed income market dynamics</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed rate of return and its relationship with the stock market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High-yield bonds: The average 30-year high-yield bond default rate was 3.56%, while the high-yield bond default rate as of June 30, 2020 was 4.85%;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: Government sector bonds were 103.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, which was at a historical high, household sector bonds were 75.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and non-financial corporate bonds were 74.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019; Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% at the end of the second quarter of 2020, a decrease from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative yield debt: As of May 31, 2020, the negative yield government debt held by the Japanese government was 5.35 trillion US dollars, the negative yield government debt held by the European government was 5.49 trillion US dollars, and the global negative yield corporate debt was 1.27 trillion US dollars</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Liquidity in the bond market: Bond inventories of major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of the total U.S. corporate bonds in the first quarter of 2020, an increase from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global monetary policy: It is predicted that the bond purchases of major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve still the largest bond purchases, a significant increase compared with 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global fixed income market: As of the end of 2019, the bond volume of the United States was US $41 trillion, the bond volume of other developed countries excluding the United States was US $47 trillion, and the bond volume of emerging markets was US $26 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Comparison of returns in fixed income market segments: From 2005 to 2019, the average yield of emerging US dollar bonds was the highest, at an annualized rate of 7.3%, but the volatility was also the highest, at 10.6%, followed by high-yield bonds, and ABS had the lowest yield</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global stock market: In the past 15 years, the U.S. (represented by the S&P 500) stock market has the highest average return rate of 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Sources of global stock returns: From 2005 to 2019, the factor that contributed the most to the return rate of the U.S. equity market was income growth, followed by dividends, and valuation multiples contributed the least; Currencies contribute negatively in emerging markets and European markets other than the UK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity returns: A stronger US dollar is detrimental to the returns of the international equity market, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to the international equity market; In 2019, the impact of the US dollar on the MSCI Global ex-US index returns was negative 10.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at the inflection point: The S&P 500 price gain from 2009 to June 30, 2020 was 401%, followed by an 8% correction, while the ACWI ex-U.S. equity market index gained 143% during the same period, followed by an 8% correction The magnitude is 19%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International stock returns and valuations: The earnings of global listed companies declined in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the U.S. stock market currently has the highest PE at 21.77 X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the service industry PMI index was 35.2, and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both of which were below the boom-bust line, but both rebounded significantly month-on-month; Global real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 was-1.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Confirmed cases and deaths worldwide</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global economic high-frequency activity index: developed countries have rebounded from the low bottom in March, but are considered to be below 0; Among developing countries, Japan, Taiwan and Russia recovered faster</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Service industry momentum: The service industry PMI indexes of major developed countries all rebounded in June 2020, with France reaching 50.3</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: Inflation rates in most mainstream countries around the world declined in May compared with April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Novel coronavirus pneumonia's financial support: Italy, Germany and Japan face the greatest financial support from novel coronavirus pneumonia, of which Italy's fiscal expenditure reaches 34% of GDP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was-6.8%, of which investment was-1.5%, consumption was-4.4%, and net exports were-1.0%; Fiscal deficit is expected to account for 14% of GDP in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging markets: The economic growth rate of emerging market GDP is expected to remain positive in 2020, but developed countries are expected to be negative, and the difference between the two has increased month-on-month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge funds: Macro hedge fund performance relative to hedge fund research index is expected to fall back in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the yield of private equity market is higher than that of MSCI ACWI global secondary market stock returns; In 2019, U.S. private equity funds completed raising but have not yet invested around US $1.2 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The Alerian MLP ETF tops 15.2% annualized in the alternative investment category, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond returns just 0.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: The price of gold on June 30, 2020 was US $1,801 an ounce, which is more consistent with the price adjusted for inflation rate, and the trend is more obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Global multi-asset allocation portfolio (25% S&P 500 Index, 10% Russell 2000 Index, 15% MSCI EAFE Index, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays US Composite Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays January-March Treasury Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity Index and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT Index) yielded 19.5% in 2019, and 6.6% annualized from 2005 to 2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: From 2007, mutual funds and ETFs have flowed into the bond market of US $2,611 billion, which has declined in 2020; $1,467 billion flowed into the stock market and $602 billion into other broad asset classes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>The average annualized return of the stock market over the past 20 years is 11.3%, the annualized return of bonds is 5.9%, and the return of the 50/50 portfolio is 8.9%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Among the alternative asset classes, REITs have the highest annualized rate of return in the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>At the end of the second quarter, 37% of Republicans rated the national economy as excellent or good, while only 11% of Democrats rated it as excellent or good</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>In 2020, a $100,000 deposit account can obtain a return of $280, but it needs $1,236 to pay the negative returns brought by inflation, $2,046 to eliminate the negative returns of education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate the negative returns of medical care</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag\">杰晶维基</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199570467","content_text":"导读:JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告,是我们必读,并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中,清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置,以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译,希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n2020年第三季度 市场指南\n一、股票市场\n拐点处的S&P 500:S&P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%,然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%\n\n2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X,过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X\n\nP/E和股票回报率\n\n2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑,其中能源市场下滑幅度最大\n\nEPS增长的来源:2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%,其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%,是EPS负增长的主要原因\n\n价值 VS 增长:2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97,价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1\n\n不同风格的收益和估值:就季度来看,小市值高增长的类型收益最好,达到30.6%;按年度来看,大市值高增长的类型表现最好,达到9.8%,中市值高增长次之,为4.2%,其他类型的均为负增长\n\n不同板块的收益和估值:就季度来看,消费行业板块最好,达到32.9%;按年度来看,科技板块表现最好,达到15%,消费板块次之,为7.2%,其他类型的均为负增长\n\n因子表现:2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好,达到11%,低波动因子次之,为10.2%,小市值因子收益最低,为7.9%,且波动率最大\n\n年化收益以及年内回调\n\n市场波动率\n\n熊市以及随后的牛市的概率\n\n1990年以来的股票市场\n\n二、宏观经济市场\n美国过去经济衰退情况\n\n经济增长以及GDP的构成:2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费,17.9%是政府支出,12.9%是排除房地产外的投资,4.0%是房地产\n\nCOVID-19:美国确诊以及死亡人数\n\n高频经济数据\n\n消费金融:美国消费者资产中27%是房产,21%退休金,负债中66%是房贷\n\n美国经济中的收入不平等\n\n美国经济的长期驱动因素\n\n联邦财政\n\n就业和工资\n\n商业情绪和经济周期\n\n不同教育程度人群的就业和收入\n\n通货膨胀\n\n美元驱动因素\n\n原油市场\n\n联邦政策利率:FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%,Q4失业率将达到9.3%,个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%;长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%,失业率为4.1%,PCEWEI 2.0%\n\n美联储的资产负债表\n\n利率和通货膨胀率\n\n三、固定收益市场动态\n\n收益率曲线\n\n固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系\n\n高收益债券:平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%,而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%;\n\n公司债:政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%,处于历史高位,家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%,非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%;Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%,环比有所下降\n\n负收益债务:截止2020年5月31日,日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元,欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元,全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元\n\n债券市场的流动性:2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%,环比有所提升\n\n全球货币政策:预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加,其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多,较2020年提升明显\n\n全球固定收益市场:截止2019年末,美国债券量为41万亿美元,其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元,新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元\n\n固定收益细分市场收益对比:2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高,为年化7.3%,但是波动率也最高,为10.6%,高收益债券次之,ABS的收益率最低\n\n全球股票市场:全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高,为9.0%,新兴市场收益率次之,为7.8%\n\n全球股票收益的来源:2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长,其次为分红,估值倍数贡献最小;新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献\n\n货币和国际权益收益:美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利,而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场;2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%\n\n拐点处的美国和国际权益市场:2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%,随后回调幅度为8%,而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%,随后回调幅度为19%\n\n国际股票收益和估值:2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑;估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高,为21.77X\n\n全球经济增长情况:2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2,制造业指数为42.4%,均处于荣枯线一下,但是环比都有明显回升;2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%\n\nCOVID-19:全球确诊病例和死亡人数\n\n全球经济高频活动指数:发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升,但是认为在0以下;发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快\n\n服务业动量:2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升,其中法国达到50.3\n\n全球通货膨胀率:全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑\n\n新冠肺炎的财政支持力度:意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大,其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%\n\n中国经济情况:中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%,其中投资为-1.5%,消费为-4.4%,净出口为-1.0%;2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%\n\n新兴市场:2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正,但发达国家预计为负,两者之差环比有所提升\n\n对冲基金:预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落\n\n私募股权市场:整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益;2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右\n\n另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%,而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%\n\n全球大宗商品:2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司,与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致,趋势上看上升较为明显\n\n全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%,2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%\n\n基金流入情况:从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场,2020年有所下滑;有14670亿美元流入股票市场,6020亿美元流入其他大类资产\n\n过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%,债券年化收益率为5.9%,50/50组合收益为8.9%\n\n另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) REITs的年化收益率最高,为11.6%,贵金属金次之,为8.6%\n\n截止第二季度末,有37%的共和党中将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好,只有11%的民主党人将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好\n\n2020年10万美元存款账户能够获得280美元的收益,但是需要1236美元去支付通货膨胀带来的负收益,2046美元去消除教育通胀的负收益,4904美元去消除医疗保障的负收益","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":307005387,"gmtCreate":1605309288449,"gmtModify":1704960262321,"author":{"id":"3550011845027848","authorId":"3550011845027848","name":"RonZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d52cf55a7d61ed5ca3332f8ea3c3938","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550011845027848","idStr":"3550011845027848"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Research Ref.","listText":"Research Ref.","text":"Research Ref.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/307005387","repostId":"304175556","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":304175556,"gmtCreate":1605187738675,"gmtModify":1704959477241,"author":{"id":"3458738367709590","authorId":"3458738367709590","name":"秋木林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be4cdfffc5173c5dafa9697b7678151","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458738367709590","idStr":"3458738367709590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" 1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$網易(NTES)$</a>財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京東(JD)$</a>財報看好,沒趕上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽車(LI)$</a>財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。","listText":" 1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$網易(NTES)$</a>財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京東(JD)$</a>財報看好,沒趕上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽車(LI)$</a>財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。","text":"1.$網易(NTES)$財報看好,網易短期看到103附近,長期看到1000億市值(還有61%漲幅) 2.$京東(JD)$財報看好,沒趕上$拼多多(PDD)$的,可以考慮進京東,短期利潤10%-20%。 3.長線佈局單: yalla,gold,一線國民銀行,網易,紐曼礦業,虎牙,聲網,阿里,騰訊等。 4.$理想汽車(LI)$財報看好,預計財報會爆,超乎想象,短線看32附近。長線看到40美元上方(還有52%漲幅)$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$還可以拿到43左右。 5.騰訊音樂,虎牙鬥魚財報都利好,低多不用擔心。海外公司: 大麻基本面好的apha,cgc(漲幅慢,但也抗跌)瘋狗的acb,tlry,sndl,等,但注意風險,利潤100%就要走不能貪了思路依舊是低多財報利好的科技公司: etsy,PayPal,fb,谷歌,寶潔,高通,w,拉姆研究,pins,snap,愛立信,fvrr,shop,chwy,se,京東,tdd,sq,twlo,lulu,fb,adbe,amd,tsla等等。類似暴雷的公司,千萬別做多。適當情況下還可做空保護:類似跟誰學,好未來,蘋果,還有蘋果未來跑不過其他四大,甚至跑不過納指ETF。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304175556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}