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  ·2020-10-27
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  Why have Hong Kong stocks started to outperform A shares recently?
  港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估，短期向上修复空间更大。此外，国内经济从Q2开始修复，但传导至港股存在时滞。最后，港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩，A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势。报告摘要
  Why have Hong Kong stocks started to outperform A shares recently?
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In addition, the domestic economy began to recover from Q2, but there was a time lag in the transmission to Hong Kong stocks. Finally, the liquidity environment of Hong Kong stocks has not tightened, and the liquidity of A-share market has not shown obvious advantages over Hong Kong stocks. Summary of the report</p><p>Hong Kong stocks significantly underperformed A-shares during the year, but have slightly outperformed since October. The recent outperformance of Hong Kong stocks over A shares can be explained from the perspective of market microstructure, as well as macro-dimensional fundamentals and policies.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 1-microstructure:</b>Recently, funds in the two cities of AH have begun to simultaneously increase the allocation of low-valuation value sectors. Compared with A-shares, the value sectors represented by bank stocks in Hong Kong stocks are more undervalued in the early stage, and there is more room for short-term upward recovery. On the other hand, in the past two weeks, there have been frequent \"flash crashes\" in Awkwardness stocks of A-share institutions, suppressing market sentiment. Hong Kong stock institutions' heavy holdings have not seen \"more killing more\" recently, and the top 20 heavy holdings of active stock-oriented Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen funds have performed steadily since October.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 2-macro fundamentals:</b>The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are \"onshore\". The domestic economy began to recover from Q2, but there is a time lag in transmission to Hong Kong stocks. The good thing is that starting from late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expects EPS to start to stabilize and rebound. Referring to historical experience, profit growth is a necessary condition for Hong Kong stocks to continue to strengthen, and historically, during the period when AH profits were rising, Hong Kong stocks mostly outperformed A shares.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 3-macro liquidity:</b>The liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is \"offshore\". Although many overseas risk events are pending, it still suppresses the risk appetite of foreign investors. However, with the higher attractiveness of China's assets combined with the lower cost of capital, foreign investors still have the motivation to buy, and the liquidity environment of Hong Kong stocks has not tightened. In mainland China, the \"currency stabilization\" policy continues, and the liquidity of the A-share market has not shown obvious advantages over Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared with A-shares.</p><p><b>Investment strategy: Hong Kong stocks continue to be in the golden layout period.</b>The U.S. election has entered the sprint stage, and short-term foreign investment risk appetite may be suppressed. However, in the environment of \"weak US dollar and strong RMB\", the weak recovery trend of the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks is confirmed, the theme of high AH premium and market ecological changes is deepening, and Hong Kong stocks are in a golden layout period.</p><p>Industry allocation concerns: (1) The economic recovery superimposes the advantages of low valuation and high Dividend of the sector, and the allocation of Hong Kong stock banks and infrastructure industry chains; (2) Domestic offline consumption scenarios have opened up, and consumption data continues to pick up. Pay attention to automobiles, restaurants, hotels, etc. in the optional consumption sector; (3) Internet software benefiting from the return of Chinese concept stocks is still the key direction.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>The performance of global stock markets was divided last week, with the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 2.18% and 2.12% respectively. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng's primary industry was mixed, with the energy industry leading the gains and the healthcare industry losing the most.</p><p>Domestically, China's GDP in the third quarter grew by 4.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations. Judging from the single-month data in September, the six major data (industry, service industry, consumption, export, investment, real estate) in September except real estate sales The growth rate was lower than last month, and the rest of the data continued to rise. Sub-highlight data include industrial added value, clothing and automobile consumption, etc.</p><p>Overseas, negotiations between the two parties in the United States on fiscal stimulus policies are still continuing. At present, there are still some differences between the two sides, but even if an agreement is reached, Congress may vote after the general election. In Europe, the euro zone's manufacturing PMI recorded 54.4 in October, higher than the previous value and market expectations, but at the same time, the service PMI fell back to 46.2 in October, lower than market expectations. In the context of the second outbreak of the epidemic, the prospects for economic recovery in Europe remain unclear.</p><p>Since late September, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks has achieved positive returns for four consecutive weeks, while the A-share market has fluctuated during the same period. After continuing to underperform A shares since the beginning of the year,<b>Why do Hong Kong stocks no longer underperform relative to A shares recently? What are the influencing factors behind it? In this issue, we analyze the market rising structure at the micro level, as well as the fundamentals and liquidity at the macro level</b>, summarize the reasons why Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A shares recently.</p><p><b>During the year, Hong Kong stocks significantly underperformed A-shares, but since late September, Hong Kong stocks have stabilized relative to A-shares, and have slightly outperformed since October.</b>Taking the Hang Seng Index/CSI 300 Index as an indicator to measure the relative trend of the AH market, since the beginning of 2019, Hong Kong stocks have continued to underperform A-shares.), July-August 2019 (Sino-US trade friction, RMB depreciation \"broke 7\", foreign capital outflows sharply, Hong Kong stocks fell more than A-shares), February-March 2020 (overseas market liquidity stampede, US stocks plummeted, foreign capital flowed out sharply of Hong Kong stocks), and June-July 2020 (US pullback/retracement dragged down Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, since September, the relative trend of AH has stabilized; Since October, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks has risen by 6.22%, and the A-share CSI 300 Index has risen by 2.86%. Hong Kong stocks have begun to outperform A-shares. From the perspective of market microstructure, as well as macro-dimensional fundamentals and policies, what factors have catalyzed Hong Kong stocks to outperform A-shares recently?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e58f143327771990fefab9c53903268\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"292\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 1: The AH market style has shifted to \"low valuation repair\", and the low valuation sector of Hong Kong stocks has more room for upward repair; On the other hand, A-share institutional heavyweight stocks encountered \"more killing more\", suppressing market sentiment, while the performance of Hong Kong institutional heavyweight stocks was relatively stable.</b></p><p>Since October, funds in AH and the two cities have begun to simultaneously increase allocation to low-valuation sectors. Corresponding to industry performance, bank stocks have become the main line of leading the gains in the two cities. However, compared with A-shares, the early valuation of the value sector represented by bank stocks in Hong Kong stocks is even more undervalued. We refer to the AH premium index. Since most listed companies in A + H are value stocks, the AH premium rate can be used as a good proxy index to measure the valuation difference between value stocks in the two cities. Since September, the AH premium rate has continued to be higher than 140, and once exceeded the highest level during the A-share \"Buffalo\" period in 2015. The value sector of Hong Kong stocks is even more undervalued. Therefore, in the recent valuation repair market of low-valuation sectors, the low-valuation sectors represented by banks in Hong Kong stocks have greater upward flexibility.</p><p>Another factor leading to the recent weak risk appetite in the A-share market is that a large number of institutional heavyweight stocks have suffered from \"killing more\". Affected by factors such as institutional cashing in earnings, or the company's performance being less than expected and unable to support high valuations, institutional heavyweight stocks in A-share food and beverage, biomedicine, media and other industries have experienced a \"flash crash\" in the past two weeks. The \"flash crash\" of institutional Awkwardness stocks suppressed the overall market sentiment. From the perspective of transaction volume, the average daily transaction volume of A shares in the past week was only 40% of the highest daily transaction volume in early July.</p><p>However, the performance of Awkwardness stocks of Hong Kong stock institutions is relatively stable. We have summarized the heavily held Hong Kong stocks in the second quarterly report of the active stock-oriented Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund in 2020, and made statistics on its performance since October. Since October, Hong Kong stocks with institutional heavyweight holdings have not fallen sharply. Among the top 20 heavyweight stocks, 13 have achieved positive returns. Among the 7 stocks with pullback/retracement, except for Yihai International (01579. HK), the rest of the companies have fallen less than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bf054a39a5781fee3b08464b6b3270\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"422\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cad6c2d7783b104276e952efdb23e38\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"259\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 2: The Hang Seng Index unanimously expects EPS to start to rise. Although the reversal of the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks has been delayed, it is not absent; During the upward period of AH profits in history, Hong Kong stocks mostly outperformed A shares.</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are dominated by foreign institutional investors, and their investment framework attaches great importance to fundamentals. Therefore, profit growth is a necessary condition for Hong Kong stocks to continue to strengthen. According to 2019 data, the net profit of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong stocks accounted for more than 80% of the net profit of all Hong Kong stocks. The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are highly correlated with the mainland economy and have obvious \"onshore\".</p><p>After the epidemic, the main domestic economic data began to recover from Q2, but the EPS of Hong Kong stocks did not rise during the same period; Since the Hong Kong Stock Exchange does not mandate Hong Kong-stock companies to disclose quarterly reports, the market's downward revision of some companies' profits is concentrated during the mid-reporting season from July to August, resulting in the Hang Seng Index's unanimous expectation that EPS will continue to decline from July to August.</p><p>However, starting from late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expected EPS to begin to rebound. We judge that before the inflection point of domestic economic growth appears, the upward trend of Hong Kong stocks will continue. Historically, during the period of rising AH profits, Hong Kong stocks mostly outperformed A-shares (refer to the report \"Why Hong Kong stocks no longer underperform A-shares?-Hong Kong Stock Policy Theory, October Issue 4\", 2019-10-27).</p><p><b>Influencing factor 3: Although overseas risk events still suppress foreign investment risk appetite, the current liquidity environment of Hong Kong stocks has not tightened.</b></p><p>Funds can freely flow in and out of Hong Kong, and the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is more affected by \"offshore\" factors. It is undeniable that the risk appetite of foreign capital was still suppressed before the US election, Brexit and other risk events landed. But at the same time, at present, the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, and the US Treasury yields fluctuates at a low level. From the perspective of foreign capital, the higher attractiveness of Chinese assets is superimposed on the lower cost of capital, and foreign capital still has the motivation to buy AH assets. In addition, judging from the recent low fluctuation of Hibor interest rate and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate constantly touching the strong side guarantee of 7.75 and other indicators, the liquidity of the Hong Kong market has not tightened.</p><p>In mainland China, the government has continued to release signals of \"stabilizing the currency\" in recent months. When Vice Premier Liu He talked about monetary policy at the opening ceremony of the 2020 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, he once again emphasized the need to maintain policy stability. As another important factor that determines the relative trend of AH (refer to the report \"Is\" A strong and H weak \"a trend, or is it a temporary suffering?-Hong Kong Stock Policy Theory February Issue 4\", 2020-02-23), the current A-share market liquidity has not shown obvious advantages over Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared with A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01f8a6c46c0c25e95998e2628d458e8\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"552\"></p>","source":"lsy1582517971643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why have Hong Kong stocks started to outperform A shares recently?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy have Hong Kong stocks started to outperform A shares recently?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">广发证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-10-26 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The early valuation of the value sector represented by bank stocks in Hong Kong stocks is even more undervalued, and there is more room for short-term upward recovery. In addition, the domestic economy began to recover from Q2, but there was a time lag in the transmission to Hong Kong stocks. Finally, the liquidity environment of Hong Kong stocks has not tightened, and the liquidity of A-share market has not shown obvious advantages over Hong Kong stocks. Summary of the report</p><p>Hong Kong stocks significantly underperformed A-shares during the year, but have slightly outperformed since October. The recent outperformance of Hong Kong stocks over A shares can be explained from the perspective of market microstructure, as well as macro-dimensional fundamentals and policies.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 1-microstructure:</b>Recently, funds in the two cities of AH have begun to simultaneously increase the allocation of low-valuation value sectors. Compared with A-shares, the value sectors represented by bank stocks in Hong Kong stocks are more undervalued in the early stage, and there is more room for short-term upward recovery. On the other hand, in the past two weeks, there have been frequent \"flash crashes\" in Awkwardness stocks of A-share institutions, suppressing market sentiment. Hong Kong stock institutions' heavy holdings have not seen \"more killing more\" recently, and the top 20 heavy holdings of active stock-oriented Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen funds have performed steadily since October.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 2-macro fundamentals:</b>The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are \"onshore\". The domestic economy began to recover from Q2, but there is a time lag in transmission to Hong Kong stocks. The good thing is that starting from late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expects EPS to start to stabilize and rebound. Referring to historical experience, profit growth is a necessary condition for Hong Kong stocks to continue to strengthen, and historically, during the period when AH profits were rising, Hong Kong stocks mostly outperformed A shares.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 3-macro liquidity:</b>The liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is \"offshore\". Although many overseas risk events are pending, it still suppresses the risk appetite of foreign investors. However, with the higher attractiveness of China's assets combined with the lower cost of capital, foreign investors still have the motivation to buy, and the liquidity environment of Hong Kong stocks has not tightened. In mainland China, the \"currency stabilization\" policy continues, and the liquidity of the A-share market has not shown obvious advantages over Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared with A-shares.</p><p><b>Investment strategy: Hong Kong stocks continue to be in the golden layout period.</b>The U.S. election has entered the sprint stage, and short-term foreign investment risk appetite may be suppressed. However, in the environment of \"weak US dollar and strong RMB\", the weak recovery trend of the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks is confirmed, the theme of high AH premium and market ecological changes is deepening, and Hong Kong stocks are in a golden layout period.</p><p>Industry allocation concerns: (1) The economic recovery superimposes the advantages of low valuation and high Dividend of the sector, and the allocation of Hong Kong stock banks and infrastructure industry chains; (2) Domestic offline consumption scenarios have opened up, and consumption data continues to pick up. Pay attention to automobiles, restaurants, hotels, etc. in the optional consumption sector; (3) Internet software benefiting from the return of Chinese concept stocks is still the key direction.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>The performance of global stock markets was divided last week, with the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 2.18% and 2.12% respectively. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng's primary industry was mixed, with the energy industry leading the gains and the healthcare industry losing the most.</p><p>Domestically, China's GDP in the third quarter grew by 4.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations. Judging from the single-month data in September, the six major data (industry, service industry, consumption, export, investment, real estate) in September except real estate sales The growth rate was lower than last month, and the rest of the data continued to rise. Sub-highlight data include industrial added value, clothing and automobile consumption, etc.</p><p>Overseas, negotiations between the two parties in the United States on fiscal stimulus policies are still continuing. At present, there are still some differences between the two sides, but even if an agreement is reached, Congress may vote after the general election. In Europe, the euro zone's manufacturing PMI recorded 54.4 in October, higher than the previous value and market expectations, but at the same time, the service PMI fell back to 46.2 in October, lower than market expectations. In the context of the second outbreak of the epidemic, the prospects for economic recovery in Europe remain unclear.</p><p>Since late September, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks has achieved positive returns for four consecutive weeks, while the A-share market has fluctuated during the same period. After continuing to underperform A shares since the beginning of the year,<b>Why do Hong Kong stocks no longer underperform relative to A shares recently? What are the influencing factors behind it? In this issue, we analyze the market rising structure at the micro level, as well as the fundamentals and liquidity at the macro level</b>, summarize the reasons why Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A shares recently.</p><p><b>During the year, Hong Kong stocks significantly underperformed A-shares, but since late September, Hong Kong stocks have stabilized relative to A-shares, and have slightly outperformed since October.</b>Taking the Hang Seng Index/CSI 300 Index as an indicator to measure the relative trend of the AH market, since the beginning of 2019, Hong Kong stocks have continued to underperform A-shares.), July-August 2019 (Sino-US trade friction, RMB depreciation \"broke 7\", foreign capital outflows sharply, Hong Kong stocks fell more than A-shares), February-March 2020 (overseas market liquidity stampede, US stocks plummeted, foreign capital flowed out sharply of Hong Kong stocks), and June-July 2020 (US pullback/retracement dragged down Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, since September, the relative trend of AH has stabilized; Since October, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks has risen by 6.22%, and the A-share CSI 300 Index has risen by 2.86%. Hong Kong stocks have begun to outperform A-shares. From the perspective of market microstructure, as well as macro-dimensional fundamentals and policies, what factors have catalyzed Hong Kong stocks to outperform A-shares recently?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e58f143327771990fefab9c53903268\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"292\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 1: The AH market style has shifted to \"low valuation repair\", and the low valuation sector of Hong Kong stocks has more room for upward repair; On the other hand, A-share institutional heavyweight stocks encountered \"more killing more\", suppressing market sentiment, while the performance of Hong Kong institutional heavyweight stocks was relatively stable.</b></p><p>Since October, funds in AH and the two cities have begun to simultaneously increase allocation to low-valuation sectors. Corresponding to industry performance, bank stocks have become the main line of leading the gains in the two cities. However, compared with A-shares, the early valuation of the value sector represented by bank stocks in Hong Kong stocks is even more undervalued. We refer to the AH premium index. Since most listed companies in A + H are value stocks, the AH premium rate can be used as a good proxy index to measure the valuation difference between value stocks in the two cities. Since September, the AH premium rate has continued to be higher than 140, and once exceeded the highest level during the A-share \"Buffalo\" period in 2015. The value sector of Hong Kong stocks is even more undervalued. Therefore, in the recent valuation repair market of low-valuation sectors, the low-valuation sectors represented by banks in Hong Kong stocks have greater upward flexibility.</p><p>Another factor leading to the recent weak risk appetite in the A-share market is that a large number of institutional heavyweight stocks have suffered from \"killing more\". Affected by factors such as institutional cashing in earnings, or the company's performance being less than expected and unable to support high valuations, institutional heavyweight stocks in A-share food and beverage, biomedicine, media and other industries have experienced a \"flash crash\" in the past two weeks. The \"flash crash\" of institutional Awkwardness stocks suppressed the overall market sentiment. From the perspective of transaction volume, the average daily transaction volume of A shares in the past week was only 40% of the highest daily transaction volume in early July.</p><p>However, the performance of Awkwardness stocks of Hong Kong stock institutions is relatively stable. We have summarized the heavily held Hong Kong stocks in the second quarterly report of the active stock-oriented Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund in 2020, and made statistics on its performance since October. Since October, Hong Kong stocks with institutional heavyweight holdings have not fallen sharply. Among the top 20 heavyweight stocks, 13 have achieved positive returns. Among the 7 stocks with pullback/retracement, except for Yihai International (01579. HK), the rest of the companies have fallen less than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bf054a39a5781fee3b08464b6b3270\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"422\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cad6c2d7783b104276e952efdb23e38\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"259\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 2: The Hang Seng Index unanimously expects EPS to start to rise. Although the reversal of the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks has been delayed, it is not absent; During the upward period of AH profits in history, Hong Kong stocks mostly outperformed A shares.</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are dominated by foreign institutional investors, and their investment framework attaches great importance to fundamentals. Therefore, profit growth is a necessary condition for Hong Kong stocks to continue to strengthen. According to 2019 data, the net profit of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong stocks accounted for more than 80% of the net profit of all Hong Kong stocks. The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are highly correlated with the mainland economy and have obvious \"onshore\".</p><p>After the epidemic, the main domestic economic data began to recover from Q2, but the EPS of Hong Kong stocks did not rise during the same period; Since the Hong Kong Stock Exchange does not mandate Hong Kong-stock companies to disclose quarterly reports, the market's downward revision of some companies' profits is concentrated during the mid-reporting season from July to August, resulting in the Hang Seng Index's unanimous expectation that EPS will continue to decline from July to August.</p><p>However, starting from late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expected EPS to begin to rebound. We judge that before the inflection point of domestic economic growth appears, the upward trend of Hong Kong stocks will continue. Historically, during the period of rising AH profits, Hong Kong stocks mostly outperformed A-shares (refer to the report \"Why Hong Kong stocks no longer underperform A-shares?-Hong Kong Stock Policy Theory, October Issue 4\", 2019-10-27).</p><p><b>Influencing factor 3: Although overseas risk events still suppress foreign investment risk appetite, the current liquidity environment of Hong Kong stocks has not tightened.</b></p><p>Funds can freely flow in and out of Hong Kong, and the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is more affected by \"offshore\" factors. It is undeniable that the risk appetite of foreign capital was still suppressed before the US election, Brexit and other risk events landed. But at the same time, at present, the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, and the US Treasury yields fluctuates at a low level. From the perspective of foreign capital, the higher attractiveness of Chinese assets is superimposed on the lower cost of capital, and foreign capital still has the motivation to buy AH assets. In addition, judging from the recent low fluctuation of Hibor interest rate and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate constantly touching the strong side guarantee of 7.75 and other indicators, the liquidity of the Hong Kong market has not tightened.</p><p>In mainland China, the government has continued to release signals of \"stabilizing the currency\" in recent months. When Vice Premier Liu He talked about monetary policy at the opening ceremony of the 2020 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, he once again emphasized the need to maintain policy stability. As another important factor that determines the relative trend of AH (refer to the report \"Is\" A strong and H weak \"a trend, or is it a temporary suffering?-Hong Kong Stock Policy Theory February Issue 4\", 2020-02-23), the current A-share market liquidity has not shown obvious advantages over Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared with A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01f8a6c46c0c25e95998e2628d458e8\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"552\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3608332\">广发证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3608332","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146350433","content_text":"港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估，短期向上修复空间更大。此外，国内经济从Q2开始修复，但传导至港股存在时滞。最后，港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩，A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势。报告摘要\n年内港股大幅跑输A股，但10月以来小幅跑赢。近期港股跑赢A股可从市场微观结构，以及宏观维度的基本面与政策角度进行解释。\n影响因素一—微观结构：近期AH两市资金开始同步增配低估值价值板块，相较于A股，港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估，短期向上修复空间更大。另一方面，近两周A股机构重仓股频频出现“闪崩”，压制市场情绪。港股机构重仓股近期未出现“多杀多”， 主动偏股型沪港深基金前20大重仓港股10月以来表现稳健。\n影响因素二—宏观基本面：港股基本面看“在岸”，国内经济从Q2开始修复，但传导至港股存在时滞。好的一点在于，从9月下旬开始，恒指一致预期EPS开始企稳反弹。参考历史经验，盈利增长是港股持续走强的必要条件，且历史上AH盈利向上期间，港股多跑赢A股。\n影响因素三—宏观流动性：港股流动性看“离岸”，尽管较多海外风险事件悬而未定仍对外资风险偏好形成压制。但中国资产较高的吸引力叠加较低的资金成本，外资目前仍有买入动力，港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩。在中国内地，“稳货币”政策延续，A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势，也是近期港股相较于A股走势企稳的重要原因。\n投资策略：港股继续处于黄金布局期。美国大选进入冲刺阶段，短期外资风险偏好或受压制。但在“弱美元、强人民币”环境下，叠加港股基本面弱复苏趋势确定，高AH溢价与市场生态变迁主题深化，港股正处于黄金布局期。\n行业配置关注：（1）经济复苏叠加板块低估值、高股息优势，配置港股银行、基建产业链；（2）国内线下消费场景打开，消费数据持续回暖，关注可选消费板块中的汽车、餐饮、酒店等；（3）中概股回归受益的互联网软件仍是重点方向。\n正文\n上周全球股市表现分化，港股恒生指数、恒生国企指数分别上涨2.18%、2.12%。 板块方面，恒生一级行业涨跌互现，能源业领涨，医疗保健业跌幅最大。\n国内方面，中国三季度GDP同比增长4.9%，略低于市场预期，从9月单月数据看，9月六大口径数据（工业、服务业、消费、出口、投资、房地产）除房地产销售增速低于上月外，其余数据继续回升。分项亮点数据包括工业增加值、服装与汽车消费等。\n海外方面，美国两党就财政刺激政策的谈判仍在继续，目前双方仍存在一定分歧，但即使达成协议，国会也或在大选之后再进行表决。欧洲方面，欧元区10月制造业PMI录得54.4，高于前值与市场预期，但与此同时10月服务业PMI回落至46.2，低于市场预期。在疫情二次暴发环境下，欧洲经济复苏前景依然不明朗。\n9月下旬以来，港股恒生指数已连续4周取得正收益，同期A股市场则走势震荡。在年初以来持续跑输A股后，为何近期港股相对A股不再跑输，背后有哪些影响因素？本期策论我们分别从微观层面的市场上涨结构、以及宏观层面的基本面、流动性等角度入手进行分析，对近期港股跑赢A股的原因进行总结。\n年内港股大幅跑输A股，但9月下旬开始港股相对A股走势企稳，10月以来小幅跑赢。以恒生指数/沪深300指数作为衡量AH市场相对走势的指标，从2019年初开始，港股持续跑输A股，其中在19年初（19年初A股“春季躁动”，港股涨幅弱于A股）、19年7-8月（中美贸易摩擦、人民币贬值“破7”，外资大幅流出，港股跌幅大于A 股）、20年2-3月（海外市场流动性踩踏，美股暴跌，外资大幅流出港股）、20年6-7 月（美国回撤拖累港股，7月初A股快涨，港股涨幅更小）这四个时间段内，港股大幅跑输A股。\n但从9月开始，AH相对走势出现企稳；10月以来，港股恒生指数上涨6.22%，A 股沪深300指数上涨2.86%，港股开始跑赢A股。从市场微观结构，以及宏观维度的基本面与政策角度分析，有哪些因素催化了近期港股跑赢A股的行情？\n\n影响因素一：AH市场风格转向“低估值修复”，港股低估值板块向上修复空间更大；另一方面，A股机构重仓股遭遇“多杀多”，压制市场情绪，而港股机构重仓股表现较为稳定。\n10月以来，AH两市资金开始同步增配低估值价值板块，对应到行业表现上，银行股成为两市领涨主线。但相较于A股，港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估。我们参考AH溢价指数，由于A+H两地上市公司多为价值股，因此AH溢价率 可以作为衡量两市价值股估值差的较好代理指标。9月以来，AH溢价率持续高于140， 并一度超过2015年A股“水牛”期间最高位，港股价值板块更为低估。因此近期低 估值板块估值修复行情中，港股以银行为代表的低估值价值板块向上弹性更大。\n导致近期A股市场风险偏好较弱的另一因素是大量机构重仓股遭遇“多杀多”。 受机构兑现收益，或公司业绩不及预期无法支撑高估值等因素影响，近两周A股食品饮料、生物医药、传媒等多个行业的机构重仓股出现“闪崩”。机构重仓股“闪崩” 对整体市场情绪形成压制，从交易额看，近一周A股日均交易额仅为7月初年内日交易额最高点的40%。\n但港股机构重仓股表现较为稳定。我们汇总了主动偏股型沪港深基金20年二季报的重仓港股，并对其10月以来的表现进行统计。10月以来机构重仓港股并未大幅 下跌，前20大重仓股中，有13只取得正收益，而出现回撤的7只个股中，除颐海国际（01579.HK）外，其余公司跌幅均不到7%。\n\n影响因素二：恒指一致预期EPS开始上行，港股基本面的反转虽有延迟，但并未缺席；在历史上AH盈利向上期间，港股多跑赢A股。\n港股由外资机构投资者主导，其投资框架内对基本面的重视程度较高，因此盈 利增长是港股持续走强的必要条件。根据2019年数据，港股中资股净利润占全部港股净利润的超80%，港股基本面与内地经济高度相关，具有明显的“在岸性”。\n疫情后，国内主要经济数据从Q2开始修复，但同期港股EPS并未上行；由于港交所未强制要求港股公司披露季度报告，市场对于部分公司盈利的下修集中在7-8月中报季期间，导致7-8月恒指一致预期EPS继续下行。\n但从9月下旬开始，恒指一致预期EPS开始反弹，我们判断，在国内经济增长拐点出现之前，港股基本面向上的趋势将延续。而在历史上AH盈利向上期间，港股多跑赢A股（参考报告《为何港股不再跑输A股？——港股策论10月第4期》，2019-10-27）。\n影响因素三：尽管海外风险事件对外资风险偏好仍有压制，但目前港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩。\n资金可在香港自由流入流出，港股流动性更多受“离岸”因素影响。不可否认的是，在美国大选、英国脱欧等风险事件落地前，外资的风险偏好仍受到压制。但与此同时，目前人民币汇率持续升值，美债利率低位波动，站在外资的角度，中国资产较高的吸引力叠加较低的资金成本，外资目前仍有买入AH资产的动力。此外从近期Hibor利率低位波动与港元汇率不断触及强方保证7.75等指标看，香港市场流动性并未出现紧缩。\n在中国内地，近几个月政府持续释放“稳货币”信号，刘鹤副总理在2020金融街论坛年会开幕式上谈到货币政策时，再次强调要保持政策稳定。作为决定AH相对走势的另一重要因素（参考报告《“A强H弱”是趋势，还是一时煎熬？——港股策论2月第4期》，2020-02-23），目前A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势，也是近期港股相较于A股走势企稳的重要原因。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}