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  ·2021-03-12
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  Is the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed, a blessing or a curse?
  正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁
  Is the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed, a blessing or a curse?
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22:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed, a blessing or a curse?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150912365","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁","content":"<p><i>Zhengfang believes that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"dawn of America\" moment. The American economy, which is ready to usher in a prosperous period, will be \"turbocharged\", and the problem of inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. Eventually, Biden will also stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who started the great prosperity of the 1980s, and become an American economic hero. The opponent believes that at present, everything from gasoline prices to housing prices are soaring all over the world, and the prices of those speculative assets are so high that people are jaw-dropping. Investors are increasingly talking about inflation and turning pale. In this case, if the U.S. government poures more fuel into the already warming economy and adds fuel to the fire, it may lead to a sharp rise in inflation and lead to catastrophe.</i></p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Congress officially approved a bill to inject $1.9 trillion into the already growing U.S. economy, which is an unprecedented move. This bill has only the last step left-sending it to President Biden for signature. Before that, Congress had passed a stimulus plan totaling nearly $4 trillion during the epidemic last year.</p><p>However, the White House is obviously not satisfied with this. They also hope to throw out more trillion-level stimulus this year, such as a comprehensive upgrade of infrastructure across the United States.</p><p>Under this reality, economists, budget experts and economic policy makers have set off a big debate covering the United States.</p><p>Zhengfang believes that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"dawn of America\" moment. The American economy, which is ready to usher in a prosperous period, will be \"turbocharged\", and the problem of inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. Eventually, Biden will also stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who started the great prosperity of the 1980s, and become an American economic hero.</p><p>The opponent believes that at present, everything from gasoline prices to housing prices are soaring all over the world, and the prices of those speculative assets are so high that people are jaw-dropping. Investors are increasingly talking about inflation and turning pale. In this case, if the U.S. government poures more fuel into the already warming economy and adds fuel to the fire, it may lead to a sharp rise in inflation and lead to catastrophe.</p><p>In any case, when Biden signs the new bill this Friday as scheduled, his early economic policy agenda will usher in a landmark moment. However, this country is now beginning to manage its economy in a brand-new way, and this may not necessarily have a wonderful result.</p><p>\"If everything works well, Biden will be a hero in everyone's mind, and he really deserves that honor.\" Len Burman, an economist at Syracuse University and co-founder of the Tax Policy Center, analyzed. \"This is the first time in American history that sufficient stimulus has been provided in a crisis, but the risk is that it may also prove too great. The threat of inflation is real. If the final result is not satisfactory, at least we will learn some lessons about the consequences of an experiment of this scale.\"</p><p>With the accelerated rollout of the Novel Coronavirus vaccine, states have gradually lifted and relaxed blockade measures. When the \"American Rescue Plan\", which is about to be implemented, came out, the U.S. economy had actually shown many signs of recovery.</p><p>In February, the U.S. economy created 379,000 jobs, which made observers overjoyed. It is expected that in the coming period, as bars and restaurants reopen and Americans gradually resume travel, a large number of more jobs will be created.</p><p>Now, the business world is bracing for the gradual return to normal of the economy later this year, and the CEO confidence index has rushed to a 17-year high. Although the confidence figures of small businesses remain relatively cautious, the upward momentum is also real. Throughout the pandemic lockdown, consumers in major economies around the world have accumulated nearly $3 trillion in new cash, which means that once life gradually returns to normal, everything from travel to cars to all kinds of new goods, demand in all fields will rise significantly.</p><p>Of course, under such a situation, various signs of higher inflation have begun to appear in many parts of the United States. For example, gasoline prices are soaring and are expected to continue to rise. Whether it is a new car or a used car, the price has risen sharply, not to mention the already hot residential market. Under such circumstances, policy makers can't help but start to be vigilant and even worried.</p><p>Of course, the most representative ones are of course high stock prices and the prices of speculative assets such as Bitcoin. With interest rates at historic lows and the Fed and Congress continuing to inject cash, these gains are likely to continue.</p><p>The stock market continues to rush forward this week, and the breath of euphoria is getting stronger and stronger. For example, the prices of GameStop, a crazy concentration of retail investors, and Tesla, an iconic stock of retail investor sentiment, are soaring.</p><p>In the future, millions of Americans will receive a lot of cash from the stimulus plan-federal unemployment benefits, increased tax deductions for children, more generous medical insurance subsidies, and targeted rescue measures for small businesses, especially those owned by people of color and female business owners.</p><p>Progressives applaud all of the above, believing that this is a significant progress, which will not only promote economic growth in the short term, but also help to correct the inequality between the rich and the poor that has become increasingly serious during the epidemic.</p><p>Many economists also point out that there are actually many Americans who still need more help. At present, there is still a gap of about 11 million job opportunities in the United States compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic. Although the official unemployment rate figure is 6.2%, if those who withdrew from the labor market during the epidemic-mostly women-are included, this figure will be close to 10%.</p><p>Although the Republican Party almost unanimously criticized this bail-out plan as too large and wasteful, most economists were much softer.</p><p>They pointed out that although the possibility of excessive rescue plan does exist, it is entirely likely to lead to rapid price rises and force the Fed to conduct an early rate hike, which will impact the prices of assets such as technology stocks, popular retail stocks and virtual currencies. However, it may not be a bad thing if these bubbles can slowly release the air instead of bursting together.</p><p>Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, believes: \"In fact, we have no choice but to provide this kind of support, and inflation has been lower than normal for the past two decades. A moderate increase in inflation is not a bad thing, and it is far from worrying about it. As for interest rates, they are too low now anyway. Investors are not unprepared for higher interest rates and inflation. \"</p><p>\"The market has a strong smell of bubbles,\" Jandi added. \"It's actually better to release some air early than let these bubbles expand day by day.\"</p><p>What Zhan Di said actually represents the most optimistic expectation for the economic outlook of the United States, which is about to be flooded with cash: the market will be moderately adjusted, the interest rate will increase slightly, the unemployment rate will be greatly reduced, and the inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. In fact, this is exactly Biden's ideal blueprint.</p><p>However, many economists are not so optimistic. What they are worried about is the already considerable consumer savings. Once the epidemic is over, life and the economy are normalized, and all these funds are released, total demand will be greatly increased., and the total supply simply cannot match it. In this case, the prices of all kinds of goods and services will soar across the board, forcing the Fed to conduct an early rate hike and a continuous rate hike.</p><p>The intense and continuous rate hike will make the borrowing cost faced by consumers soar sharply, while their purchasing power is also shrinking rapidly because of inflation. Not to mention, in the high interest rate environment, the repayment cost of Treasury Bond, which has expanded to an alarming level in the United States, will also increase significantly. The fate of the infrastructure upgrade stimulus plan that Biden hopes to launch in the future will be marked with a huge question mark. After all, now, Republicans have expressed strong resistance.</p><p>\"We have clearly reached an unsustainable level of debt, and we know that interest rates can't stay that low forever,\" Berman analyzed. \"If markets finally realize that the United States is no longer the safe haven it used to be, interest rates could jump rapidly. This is certainly not an imminent problem, but investors have to be prepared for it. Ultimately, the risk is real.\"</p><p>In fact, long before the new stimulus bill broke through, economists had already predicted that the U.S. economy would achieve strong growth in 2021. Now, the general view is that under the further stimulation of the new bill, the growth rate of the American economy is expected to reach about 7% this year, which is a figure that has not been seen since 1980s.</p><p>Such significant economic growth could indeed lift many people out of poverty, allow wages to rise without causing inflation to rise, and give Biden economic hero status as a result. However, the possibility of another diametrically opposite outcome can't be ignored-inflation has soared sharply, devouring consumers' purchasing power and forcing the Federal Reserve to take devastating emergency rate hike actions.</p><p>\"What is clear is that policymakers, especially the left among them, have completely forgotten how damaging inflation can be.\" Fortunately, at least for now, he doesn't have to worry too much about it, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief US economist at Mizuho Securities.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed, a blessing or a curse?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed, a blessing or a curse?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-11 22:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Zhengfang believes that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"dawn of America\" moment. The American economy, which is ready to usher in a prosperous period, will be \"turbocharged\", and the problem of inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. Eventually, Biden will also stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who started the great prosperity of the 1980s, and become an American economic hero. The opponent believes that at present, everything from gasoline prices to housing prices are soaring all over the world, and the prices of those speculative assets are so high that people are jaw-dropping. Investors are increasingly talking about inflation and turning pale. In this case, if the U.S. government poures more fuel into the already warming economy and adds fuel to the fire, it may lead to a sharp rise in inflation and lead to catastrophe.</i></p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Congress officially approved a bill to inject $1.9 trillion into the already growing U.S. economy, which is an unprecedented move. This bill has only the last step left-sending it to President Biden for signature. Before that, Congress had passed a stimulus plan totaling nearly $4 trillion during the epidemic last year.</p><p>However, the White House is obviously not satisfied with this. They also hope to throw out more trillion-level stimulus this year, such as a comprehensive upgrade of infrastructure across the United States.</p><p>Under this reality, economists, budget experts and economic policy makers have set off a big debate covering the United States.</p><p>Zhengfang believes that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"dawn of America\" moment. The American economy, which is ready to usher in a prosperous period, will be \"turbocharged\", and the problem of inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. Eventually, Biden will also stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who started the great prosperity of the 1980s, and become an American economic hero.</p><p>The opponent believes that at present, everything from gasoline prices to housing prices are soaring all over the world, and the prices of those speculative assets are so high that people are jaw-dropping. Investors are increasingly talking about inflation and turning pale. In this case, if the U.S. government poures more fuel into the already warming economy and adds fuel to the fire, it may lead to a sharp rise in inflation and lead to catastrophe.</p><p>In any case, when Biden signs the new bill this Friday as scheduled, his early economic policy agenda will usher in a landmark moment. However, this country is now beginning to manage its economy in a brand-new way, and this may not necessarily have a wonderful result.</p><p>\"If everything works well, Biden will be a hero in everyone's mind, and he really deserves that honor.\" Len Burman, an economist at Syracuse University and co-founder of the Tax Policy Center, analyzed. \"This is the first time in American history that sufficient stimulus has been provided in a crisis, but the risk is that it may also prove too great. The threat of inflation is real. If the final result is not satisfactory, at least we will learn some lessons about the consequences of an experiment of this scale.\"</p><p>With the accelerated rollout of the Novel Coronavirus vaccine, states have gradually lifted and relaxed blockade measures. When the \"American Rescue Plan\", which is about to be implemented, came out, the U.S. economy had actually shown many signs of recovery.</p><p>In February, the U.S. economy created 379,000 jobs, which made observers overjoyed. It is expected that in the coming period, as bars and restaurants reopen and Americans gradually resume travel, a large number of more jobs will be created.</p><p>Now, the business world is bracing for the gradual return to normal of the economy later this year, and the CEO confidence index has rushed to a 17-year high. Although the confidence figures of small businesses remain relatively cautious, the upward momentum is also real. Throughout the pandemic lockdown, consumers in major economies around the world have accumulated nearly $3 trillion in new cash, which means that once life gradually returns to normal, everything from travel to cars to all kinds of new goods, demand in all fields will rise significantly.</p><p>Of course, under such a situation, various signs of higher inflation have begun to appear in many parts of the United States. For example, gasoline prices are soaring and are expected to continue to rise. Whether it is a new car or a used car, the price has risen sharply, not to mention the already hot residential market. Under such circumstances, policy makers can't help but start to be vigilant and even worried.</p><p>Of course, the most representative ones are of course high stock prices and the prices of speculative assets such as Bitcoin. With interest rates at historic lows and the Fed and Congress continuing to inject cash, these gains are likely to continue.</p><p>The stock market continues to rush forward this week, and the breath of euphoria is getting stronger and stronger. For example, the prices of GameStop, a crazy concentration of retail investors, and Tesla, an iconic stock of retail investor sentiment, are soaring.</p><p>In the future, millions of Americans will receive a lot of cash from the stimulus plan-federal unemployment benefits, increased tax deductions for children, more generous medical insurance subsidies, and targeted rescue measures for small businesses, especially those owned by people of color and female business owners.</p><p>Progressives applaud all of the above, believing that this is a significant progress, which will not only promote economic growth in the short term, but also help to correct the inequality between the rich and the poor that has become increasingly serious during the epidemic.</p><p>Many economists also point out that there are actually many Americans who still need more help. At present, there is still a gap of about 11 million job opportunities in the United States compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic. Although the official unemployment rate figure is 6.2%, if those who withdrew from the labor market during the epidemic-mostly women-are included, this figure will be close to 10%.</p><p>Although the Republican Party almost unanimously criticized this bail-out plan as too large and wasteful, most economists were much softer.</p><p>They pointed out that although the possibility of excessive rescue plan does exist, it is entirely likely to lead to rapid price rises and force the Fed to conduct an early rate hike, which will impact the prices of assets such as technology stocks, popular retail stocks and virtual currencies. However, it may not be a bad thing if these bubbles can slowly release the air instead of bursting together.</p><p>Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, believes: \"In fact, we have no choice but to provide this kind of support, and inflation has been lower than normal for the past two decades. A moderate increase in inflation is not a bad thing, and it is far from worrying about it. As for interest rates, they are too low now anyway. Investors are not unprepared for higher interest rates and inflation. \"</p><p>\"The market has a strong smell of bubbles,\" Jandi added. \"It's actually better to release some air early than let these bubbles expand day by day.\"</p><p>What Zhan Di said actually represents the most optimistic expectation for the economic outlook of the United States, which is about to be flooded with cash: the market will be moderately adjusted, the interest rate will increase slightly, the unemployment rate will be greatly reduced, and the inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. In fact, this is exactly Biden's ideal blueprint.</p><p>However, many economists are not so optimistic. What they are worried about is the already considerable consumer savings. Once the epidemic is over, life and the economy are normalized, and all these funds are released, total demand will be greatly increased., and the total supply simply cannot match it. In this case, the prices of all kinds of goods and services will soar across the board, forcing the Fed to conduct an early rate hike and a continuous rate hike.</p><p>The intense and continuous rate hike will make the borrowing cost faced by consumers soar sharply, while their purchasing power is also shrinking rapidly because of inflation. Not to mention, in the high interest rate environment, the repayment cost of Treasury Bond, which has expanded to an alarming level in the United States, will also increase significantly. The fate of the infrastructure upgrade stimulus plan that Biden hopes to launch in the future will be marked with a huge question mark. After all, now, Republicans have expressed strong resistance.</p><p>\"We have clearly reached an unsustainable level of debt, and we know that interest rates can't stay that low forever,\" Berman analyzed. \"If markets finally realize that the United States is no longer the safe haven it used to be, interest rates could jump rapidly. This is certainly not an imminent problem, but investors have to be prepared for it. Ultimately, the risk is real.\"</p><p>In fact, long before the new stimulus bill broke through, economists had already predicted that the U.S. economy would achieve strong growth in 2021. Now, the general view is that under the further stimulation of the new bill, the growth rate of the American economy is expected to reach about 7% this year, which is a figure that has not been seen since 1980s.</p><p>Such significant economic growth could indeed lift many people out of poverty, allow wages to rise without causing inflation to rise, and give Biden economic hero status as a result. However, the possibility of another diametrically opposite outcome can't be ignored-inflation has soared sharply, devouring consumers' purchasing power and forcing the Federal Reserve to take devastating emergency rate hike actions.</p><p>\"What is clear is that policymakers, especially the left among them, have completely forgotten how damaging inflation can be.\" Fortunately, at least for now, he doesn't have to worry too much about it, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief US economist at Mizuho Securities.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jmcdhioDCRCM3mU8pjgQcQ\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844c8f1c14dd94e2ef7036ff97d43537","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jmcdhioDCRCM3mU8pjgQcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150912365","content_text":"正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。\n当地时间周三，美国国会正式批准了向已然处在增长当中的美国经济注入1.9万亿美元资金的法案，堪称是前所未有的举措。这一法案至此只剩下了最后一步程序——送交拜登总统签署，而在此之前，国会去年在疫情期间已经通过了总计近4万亿美元的刺激计划。\n不过，白宫显然并不满足于此，他们还希望能够在今年年内抛出更多万亿级别的刺激，比如对全美基础设施进行全面大升级。\n这样的现实之下，经济学家、预算专家，以及经济政策制定者们当中，已经掀起了一场覆盖全美的大辩论。\n正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。\n反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。\n无论怎样，当拜登按照预定日程于本周五签署新法案，他的早期经济政策日程都将迎来一个标志性的时刻。只不过，这个国家现在正在开始以一种全新的路径来管理经济，而这未必一定就会有一个美妙的结果。\n“如果一切运转良好，拜登就将成为大家心目当中的英雄，而他确实也配得上这样的光荣。”锡拉丘兹大学经济学家、税务政策中心（Tax Policy Center）创始人之一伯曼（Len Burman）分析道，“这是美国历史上第一次在危机当中提供力度足够的刺激，但是风险在于，这力度也可能会被证明是过大了。通货膨胀的威胁是实实在在的。如果最终的结果不如人意，至少我们会得到一些教训，知道这样规模的实验会造成怎样的后果。”\n伴随新冠病毒疫苗加速铺开，各州陆续解除和放宽封锁措施，这份即将贯彻实施的“美国救援计划”（ American Rescue Plan）问世的时候，美国经济其实已经显现出了不少复苏的苗头。\n2月间，美国经济创造出了37.9万就业机会，让观察家们大喜过望，而且预计未来一段时间当中，伴随酒吧和餐厅重新开始营业，美国人逐渐恢复旅行，还将有大量更多的岗位被创造出来。\n现在，企业界都在准备迎接经济在今年晚些时候逐渐回归常态的脚步，首席执行官信心指数冲上了十七年的新高。小企业信心数字虽然保持着相对谨慎的态势，但是上扬的势头也是实实在在的。在整个疫情封锁期间，全球主要经济体的消费者们已经积蓄了近3万亿美元的新增现金，这就意味着一旦生活逐渐恢复正常，从旅行到汽车再到各种新商品，所有领域的需求都将大幅度抬头。\n当然，这样的局面之下，各种通货膨胀走高的迹象也开始在美国多处出现，比如汽油价格正在飞涨，而且预计还将继续涨下去。无论是新车还是二手车，价格都大幅度上涨，原本就已经炙手可热的住宅市场就更不必说。在这样的情况下，政策制定者们不能不开始警惕起来，甚至感到担心。\n当然，最有代表性的当然还是高企的股票价格，以及比特币等投机资产的价格。在利率处于历史性低点，联储和国会还在持续注入现金的情况之下，这些涨势大概率都将延续下去。\n股市本周继续奔腾前进，欣快症的气息越发浓烈。比如游戏驿站这种散户疯狂集中地，还有特斯拉这种散户情绪标志性股票，价格都在大涨。\n在未来一段时间里，成百上千万美国人都将从刺激计划当中获得不菲的现金——联邦失业救济补贴，儿童免税扣除额度提升，更慷慨的医保补贴，以及针对小企业，尤其是有色人种和女性企业主的小企业的定向援救措施等。\n进步主义者对上述所有这一切拍手叫好，认为这是重大的进步，不但会在短期内促进经济增长，更有助于矫正疫情期间越发严重的贫富不均局面。\n许多经济学家还指出，其实还有许多美国人依然需要更多的帮助。目前，全美就业机会数量较之疫情爆发前依然有着大约1100万的差距。虽然官方失业率数字是6.2%，但是如果将那些疫情期间退出劳动力市场的人口——大部分都是女性——纳入计算，则这一数字就将接近10%。\n虽然共和党方面几乎是众口一词地批评这一纾困计划规模过大，颇有浪费的嫌疑，但是多数经济学家们的口径却要柔和得多。\n他们指出，虽然救援计划力度过大的可能性确实是存在的，也完全可能导致价格迅速上涨，并迫使联储提早加息，使科技股票、散户热门股票和虚拟货币等资产价格遭到冲击，但是，如果这些泡沫能够缓缓将空气放出，而不是一起破灭，其实也未必不是一件好事。\n穆迪分析首席经济学家詹迪（Mark Zandi）就认为：“其实我们别无选择，唯有提供这种力度的支持，而且我们过去长达二十年的时间里，通货膨胀一直都低于正常水平。通货膨胀适度抬升并非坏事，现在还远没有到其为其感到担心的地步。至于利率，现在无论如何都是过低的。投资者对于更高的利率和通货膨胀率并非毫无准备。”\n“市场泡沫气息浓厚。”詹迪补充道，“提早释放出一些空气，其实总好过让这些泡沫日益膨胀。”\n詹迪所言，其实就代表了对即将迎来现金大水漫灌的美国经济前景的最乐观预期：市场温和调整，利率略有提高，而失业率将大幅度降低，贫富不均局面将得到重大改善。事实上，这也正是拜登的理想蓝图。\n不过，也有不少经济学家并没有这么乐观，他们担心的是已经非常可观的消费者储蓄，一旦疫情结束，生活和经济正常化，这些资金全部释放出来，就将使得总需求大幅度提升，而总供给根本无法与其匹配。在这种情况下，各种商品和服务价格就将全面飙涨，迫使联储提早加息，而且是连续加息。\n大力度的连续加息，将使得消费者面临的借贷成本急剧窜升，而因为通货膨胀的关系，他们的购买力同时还在迅速缩水。更不必说，高利率环境当中，美国业已膨胀到惊人地步的国债，其偿付成本也将大幅度升高，拜登希望后续推出的基础设施升级刺激计划的命运就将因此被打上巨大的问号，毕竟现在，共和党人就已经表示了强烈抵制的态度。\n“我们的债务规模显然已经达到了不可持续的水平，而且我们也知道，利率终归不可能永远保持这样的低水平。”伯曼分析道，“如果市场最终意识到，美国已经不再是过去那种安全的避风港，利率就可能迅速窜升。这当然还不是迫在眉睫的问题，但是投资者对此必须提前有所准备，归根结底，这风险是实实在在的。”\n其实，早在新刺激法案闯关前，经济学家们就已经预计美国经济2021年将实现强势增长了。现在，大家的普遍看法是，在新法案的进一步刺激下，美国经济今年的增长速度有望达到7%左右，这是一个20世纪80年代以来就从来不曾出现过的数字。\n如此可观的经济增长确实可以帮助许多人摆脱贫困，让工资在不导致通货膨胀抬头的情况下获得增长，并让拜登因此获得经济英雄的地位。然而，另外一种截然相反的结果出现的可能性一样不容忽视——通货膨胀急剧窜升，吞噬消费者的购买力，并迫使联储采取破坏性极大的紧急加息动作。\n“显而易见的是，政策制定者们，尤其是他们当中的左翼，已经彻底忘记了通货膨胀的破坏力能够有多可怕。”瑞穗证券首席美国经济学家雷契特（Steven Ricchiuto）表示，好在至少现在，他还不必对这一点过多担心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}