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追高风

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- 追高风追高风
  ·2025-03-18
  Share price go against result 😀
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-08-13
  Good
  Opening: Hang Seng Index open low 0.84%, Li Ning opened up more than 4% after the results
  8月13日，恒生指数开盘下跌221.63点，跌幅0.84%，报26296.19点；国企指数开盘下跌90.68点，跌幅0.96%，报9374.78点；红筹指数开盘下跌10.27点，跌幅0.27%，报38
  Opening: Hang Seng Index open low 0.84%, Li Ning opened up more than 4% after the results
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-07-21
  Yes la
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-07-19
  ?
  CICC Overseas: U.S. stock profits in the second quarter are expected to further accelerate growth
  摘要近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角
  CICC Overseas: U.S. stock profits in the second quarter are expected to further accelerate growth
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-07-13
  $Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yo....
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-07-13
  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-07-13
  Okay
  For the chip! Just now, the 1.7 trillion Meituan also made a move!
  半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！王兴出手投资
  For the chip! Just now, the 1.7 trillion Meituan also made a move!
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-07-02
  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-07-01
  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up
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- 追高风追高风
  ·2021-06-27
  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$hold
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09:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Opening: Hang Seng Index open low 0.84%, Li Ning opened up more than 4% after the results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196719671","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月13日，恒生指数开盘下跌221.63点，跌幅0.84%，报26296.19点；国企指数开盘下跌90.68点，跌幅0.96%，报9374.78点；红筹指数开盘下跌10.27点，跌幅0.27%，报38","content":"<p>On August 13, the Hang Seng Index opened down 221.63 points, or 0.84%, to 26296.19 points; The China Enterprise Index opened down 90.68 points, or 0.96%, to 9374.78 points; The red chip index opened down 10.27 points, or 0.27%, to 3818.03 points.</p><p>The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">Tongcheng Yilong</a>Down 2.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>Down 2.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Down 2.24%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Fell nearly 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase-S</a>It fell about 1.7%.</p><p>Hong Kong education stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">Chinese Oriental Education</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental-S</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01773\">Tianli Education</a>Down 2.65%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">South China Vocational Education</a>Fell 2.17%.</p><p>Hong Kong carbon neutral concept stocks strengthen, $China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600811\">Oriental Group</a>(00581) $rose more than 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00257\">Everbright Environment</a>Up 4.24%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00750\">Shuifa Xingye Energy</a>Up 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">Follett Glass</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00868\">Xinyi Glass</a>Up more than 0.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>He said he was optimistic about the market of the lithium industry due to the shortage of resource supply.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>It rose by more than 4%, and net profit in the first half of the year increased by 187%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>It fell 3.2%, and Q2 caused a fair value loss of 3.1 billion yuan due to the adjustment of Kuaishou's market value.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">Gaowei Electronics</a>It fell 7.33%, and revenue in the first half of the year decreased by approximately 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>The Hong Kong stock market fell 0.85% to HK $116 the next day after listing.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: Hang Seng Index open low 0.84%, Li Ning opened up more than 4% after the results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; 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left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: Hang Seng Index open low 0.84%, Li Ning opened up more than 4% after the results\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-13 09:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 13, the Hang Seng Index opened down 221.63 points, or 0.84%, to 26296.19 points; The China Enterprise Index opened down 90.68 points, or 0.96%, to 9374.78 points; The red chip index opened down 10.27 points, or 0.27%, to 3818.03 points.</p><p>The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">Tongcheng Yilong</a>Down 2.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>Down 2.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Down 2.24%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Fell nearly 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase-S</a>It fell about 1.7%.</p><p>Hong Kong education stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">Chinese Oriental Education</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental-S</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01773\">Tianli Education</a>Down 2.65%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">South China Vocational Education</a>Fell 2.17%.</p><p>Hong Kong carbon neutral concept stocks strengthen, $China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600811\">Oriental Group</a>(00581) $rose more than 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00257\">Everbright Environment</a>Up 4.24%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00750\">Shuifa Xingye Energy</a>Up 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">Follett Glass</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00868\">Xinyi Glass</a>Up more than 0.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>He said he was optimistic about the market of the lithium industry due to the shortage of resource supply.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>It rose by more than 4%, and net profit in the first half of the year increased by 187%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>It fell 3.2%, and Q2 caused a fair value loss of 3.1 billion yuan due to the adjustment of Kuaishou's market value.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">Gaowei Electronics</a>It fell 7.33%, and revenue in the first half of the year decreased by approximately 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>The Hong Kong stock market fell 0.85% to HK $116 the next day after listing.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSI":"恒生指数","02331":"李宁","02833":"恒指ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196719671","content_text":"8月13日，恒生指数开盘下跌221.63点，跌幅0.84%，报26296.19点；国企指数开盘下跌90.68点，跌幅0.96%，报9374.78点；红筹指数开盘下跌10.27点，跌幅0.27%，报3818.03点。\n恒生科技指数跌1.26%，同程艺龙跌2.69%，阿里健康跌2.46%，腾讯控股跌2.24%，美团-W跌近2%，阿里巴巴-SW与京东健康、网易-S跌约1.7%。\n港股教育股下挫，中国东方教育跌超8%，新东方-S跌近4%，天立教育跌2.65%，华南职业教育跌2.17%。\n港股碳中和概念股走强，$中国东方集团(00581)$涨超13%，光大环境涨4.24%，水发兴业能源涨1.7%，福莱特玻璃与信义玻璃涨超0.85%，国金证券称因资源供应短缺看好锂行业板块行情。\n李宁涨超4%，上半年净利润增长187%。\n百度集团-SW跌3.2%，Q2因快手市值调整造成公允价值损失31亿元。\n高伟电子跌7.33%，上半年收益同比减少约3.2%。\n理想汽车-W港股上市次日跌0.85%，报116港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"02833":0.9,"02331":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178260776,"gmtCreate":1626823962995,"gmtModify":1703765755507,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571463119794412","idStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes la","listText":"Yes la","text":"Yes la","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178260776","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173899862,"gmtCreate":1626651474656,"gmtModify":1703762587598,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571463119794412","idStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173899862","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151231853?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: U.S. stock profits in the second quarter are expected to further accelerate growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Recently, as U.S. inflation has once again exceeded expectations, market concerns about whether U.S. stocks can continue their upward trend under high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Fed's policy will tighten ahead of schedule, have once again heated up. However, regardless of some short-term emotional changes, the fundamental situation is the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From a market perspective, even in the face of fluctuations that may be caused by many uncertainties, as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed, we will not turn pessimistic about the market.</b></p><p>Overall situation: Growth further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials, and capital goods led the growth rate.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are expected to achieve 66% year-on-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and the Nasdaq Composite Index is 89% year-on-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the sector level, combined with the base in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current Factset summary expectations show that,<b>Consumer durables, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors led the earnings growth rate</b>, is expected to achieve more than 100% profit growth; On the contrary, household goods, healthcare equipment and utilities are expected to have negative earnings growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>The current problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the restoration of profitability and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of supply and demand bottlenecks.</b>Therefore, during the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussion on related issues. In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the current capacity utilization rates of automobiles and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors are obviously low, especially for automobiles. The current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June. This also explains that used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the adjustment sentiment will fall at the margin; There is still stamina in the third quarter quarter</p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for U.S. stock profits has been rapidly revised upward. However, the more sensitive profit adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward adjustment of the number of analysts) began to be rapidly revised upward in the second quarter, but began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that The fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed, and the upward revision momentum has slowed down.<b>Looking forward, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What is the upcoming second-quarter performance period of US stocks?</b></p><p>Recently, as U.S. inflation has once again exceeded expectations, the market's concerns about whether the U.S. stock market can continue its upward trend under high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Fed's policy will be tightened in advance, have once again heated up.</p><p>We mentioned in our recent review \"Unexpected Inflation vs. Relatively Calm Market\" that the reason why the market is relatively calm is mainly due to such high prices (for example, used cars rose 45% year-on-year. If used cars are deducted, the CPI in June will be basically flat year-on-year), which makes the market think it is unsustainable, but more importantly, Powell still maintained the judgment that inflation is temporary and there is no rush to exit the policy at the hearing (\"The Fed is still in no rush to exit\").</p><p><i>After deducting second-hand car prices, inflation in June was only basically the same as that in May</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, regardless of some short-term emotional changes, the fundamental situation is the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>What's more, since the US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, the valuation of US stocks has been basically flat, and profitability is the core variable driving market performance</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend does not completely reverse, even in the face of the volatility that may bring about many uncertainties</b>。</p><p>In fact, the performance in the first quarter greatly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. the expected 21% and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), which promoted the continued upward revision of performance (\"Eight Characteristics of Current U.S. Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus expectations It is expected that the profit growth rate in 2021 is expected to reach 38% and 11% in 2021.<b>Under such a strong growth, assuming other things are equal, if you switch to profitability in 2022, the valuation will return to pre-epidemic levels, making the seemingly high valuation not that expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend does not completely reverse, even in the face of the volatility that may bring about many uncertainties</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The U.S. stock market has been basically flat since the third quarter of last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If you switch to 2022 earnings in the second half (light blue), then valuations will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The S&P 500's 2021 EPS consensus expects a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and the market consensus expects a year-on-year increase of 10.9% in 2022.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1. Overall situation: further acceleration in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods lead the growth rate</b></p><p>Starting from mid-July, the U.S. stock market will gradually enter the 2Q21 performance period lasting for one month. As we analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash\", we expect to benefit from the low base last year and the continued recovery of service consumption due to epidemic vaccination since the second quarter.<b>U.S. stocks' second-quarter profit growth will be the highest point for the year</b>。 Specifically, referring to Factset's consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are expected to achieve 66% year-on-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and the Nasdaq Composite Index is 89% year-on-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>The current market consensus expects the S&P 500 EPS to be 65.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, and the Nasdaq Composite Index EPS to be 88.9% year-on-year in the second quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In addition to net profit, the S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared with the first quarter, while the Nasdaq has declined slightly, but it is still at a high level</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the sector level, combined with the base in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current Factset summary expectations show that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors lead the profit growth rate, and are expected to achieve profit growth of more than 100%</b>； On the contrary, household goods, healthcare equipment and utilities are expected to have negative earnings growth in the second quarter.<b>From the perspective of improvement, compared with the first quarter, value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking and raw materials may improve significantly</b>, while the profit growth rate of growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, and media entertainment may decline.</p><p><i>The year-on-year growth rate of consumer durables and banks' EPS in the second quarter improved significantly, but household goods, healthcare and equipment are expected to lag behind</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This strength-weakness relationship is generally consistent with the situation in the first quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared with the first quarter, durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, raw materials, etc. improved the most, while retail, diversified finance, and medical and health care equipment declined</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the energy sector's 2021e EPS expectations have been adjusted the most, and banks, raw materials, etc. have also seen significant increases</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Focus of attention: supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditures</b></p><p><b>The current problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the restoration of profits and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of supply and demand bottlenecks</b>。 Therefore, during the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussion on related issues. Judging from the monthly high-frequency data as of June, the overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not been fully restored to the level of 75.8% in January. Especially for durable consumer goods that are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, the current capacity utilization rate is only It is 74%, which is still far from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the epidemic.</p><p>In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>At present, the capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, aviation transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low.</b>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditures of enterprises. Judging from the situation as of the first quarter, the capital expenditures of U.S. enterprises also show a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation. Those industries with strong demand, full production capacity and capability Capital Expenditures are repaired faster, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, biopharmaceuticals and other industries; On the contrary, other industries such as energy, transportation and commercial services are still lagging behind.</p><p><i>Overall U.S. capacity utilization is currently at 75.5% and has not yet fully recovered to January's level of 75.8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially for durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, the current capacity utilization rate is only 74%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, aviation transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of U.S. companies has also shown a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Outlook: It is expected to continue to be revised upward, but the adjustment sentiment will fall back at the margin; There is still stamina in the third quarter quarter</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for U.S. stock profits has been rapidly revised upward. Currently, the market expects the S&P 500 EPS to increase by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and 10.9% year-on-year in 2022; Nasdaq's 2021 EPS increased by 49.2% year-on-year, and its 2022 EPS increased by 19.0% year-on-year. However, more sensitive earnings correction sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst count)<b>Rapid upward revision began in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed, and the upward revision momentum has slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking forward,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</b>。 At present, the market expects a profit growth rate of 24% in the third quarter, which is one of the main reasons why we remain positive about the growth and market of the United States in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, profit adjustment sentiment has been rapidly revised upward, but it gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market dynamics: Inflation rose more than expected in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales showed that demand remained strong; US Treasury yields hits a new low, bulls increase, and dollar shorts fall sharply</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: bonds > stocks > bulk; Interest rates hit new lows, cycle underperforms</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of heavy data and events in the United States.<b>After experiencing more than expected inflation in June</b>(\"Inflation that exceeds expectations vs. a relatively calm market\"),<b>Still dovish Powell testimony</b>(\"The Fed is still in no hurry to exit\"),<b>After retail sales exceeded expectations but fell short of expected consumer confidence index, the U.S. stock market as a whole closed slightly lower, and the financial cycle underperformed</b>At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell to a recent low and fell back to 1.29%. The real interest rate fell, but inflation expectations rose. In terms of major global assets, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk stocks, VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks led the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>In the past week, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq lead losses</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Utilities, household goods led gains over the past week; Energy, semiconductors, consumer services lead losses</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell about 7bps from last week, with real interest rates falling 11bps and inflation expectations rising 4bps.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the epidemic-damaged and cyclical sectors relatively underperformed, while the epidemic-damaged sectors relatively outperformed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Emotional position: The Put/call ratio rose, and the short position of the US dollar decreased significantly</b></p><p>In the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in U.S. stocks (10-day average) has risen sharply from last week, and is currently higher than the historical average of-1 standard deviation. In terms of positions, the US Dollar Index's long and short positions have been significantly reduced, resulting in a sharp increase in net long positions; With the further decline of US Treasury yields, the long position of 10-year U.S. bonds has increased significantly, and the short position of 2-year U.S. bonds has decreased significantly.</p><p><i>The CBOE U.S. stock bearish/bullish option ratio (10-day average) has increased significantly from last week, and is currently higher than the historical average-1 times standard deviation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the RSI points of European and American stock markets have all fallen, while Japan and emerging markets have risen; Brent oil falls back</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the US Dollar Index long positions have continued to increase, short positions have decreased significantly, and net long positions have risen significantly</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Capital flow: The cargo base turned into outflow, and the stock market accelerated inflow.</b></p><p>In the past week, bond market inflows have slowed down, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money funds have outflowed significantly; In terms of markets, the inflow of stock markets in the United States and Japan accelerated, the inflow of developed Europe slowed down, and the inflow of emerging markets represented by China turned into inflow.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond inflows have slowed, stock inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have turned to big outflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, inflows from the US and Japan accelerated, inflows from developed Europe slowed down, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned into inflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>U.S. inflation rose more than expected in June, and used cars and travel related companies remained the main contributors.</b>The CPI in June was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeded market expectations. Among them, the price of used cars jumped 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third of the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in June. The supply constraints caused by factors such as the lack of chips are still the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel demand after the restoration and opening of the epidemic, such as air tickets and hotels, also increased significantly. For example, the ticket counting price in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>June retail sales surprisingly increased 0.6% month-on-month</b>, higher than the expected-0.3% and previous value (-1.7%). Looking at items,<b>Retail sales of automobiles and parts fell 2% month-on-month, possibly dragged down by recent supply shortages and surging prices</b>, but department stores, groceries, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month. However, the larger-than-expected retail consumption was offset by the lower-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (80.8 in July, lower than the previous value of 85.5 and lower than expected (86.5)). At the same time, the number of first applicants last week was 360,000, lower than the previous value (386,000) but less than the expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data for the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The U.S. CPI exceeded expectations again in June, 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month. Used cars and travel-related services are still the most important contributors</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. retail sales in June were 0.6% month-on-month, higher than expectations of-0.3%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In terms of items, retail sales of automobiles and parts fell by 2% month-on-month, but department stores, grocery stores, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the Fed's average daily reverse repurchase usage remained at a high level, exceeding $800 billion</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current size of the Fed's balance sheet is about US $8.20 trillion, a significant increase from last week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market Valuation: Valuation fell slightly.</b></p><p>As the 10-year US Treasury yields continued to fall last week, the current S&P 500 index's 27.7 times static P/E is basically at a reasonable level that can be supported by growth (June ISM manufacturing PMI = 60.6) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields 1.36%). level (~ 27.9 times). The valuation levels of stock markets in major global markets, including Europe, Japan and emerging markets, have all declined, but they are at relatively high levels in history.</p><p><i>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 index dropped slightly to 21.3 times, more than double the standard deviation of the average since 1990</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current 27.7 times static P/E of the S&P 500 is basically at a reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 27.9 times)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: U.S. stock profits in the second quarter are expected to further accelerate growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: U.S. stock profits in the second quarter are expected to further accelerate growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Recently, as U.S. inflation has once again exceeded expectations, market concerns about whether U.S. stocks can continue their upward trend under high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Fed's policy will tighten ahead of schedule, have once again heated up. However, regardless of some short-term emotional changes, the fundamental situation is the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From a market perspective, even in the face of fluctuations that may be caused by many uncertainties, as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed, we will not turn pessimistic about the market.</b></p><p>Overall situation: Growth further accelerated in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials, and capital goods led the growth rate.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are expected to achieve 66% year-on-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and the Nasdaq Composite Index is 89% year-on-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the sector level, combined with the base in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current Factset summary expectations show that,<b>Consumer durables, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors led the earnings growth rate</b>, is expected to achieve more than 100% profit growth; On the contrary, household goods, healthcare equipment and utilities are expected to have negative earnings growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>The current problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the restoration of profitability and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of supply and demand bottlenecks.</b>Therefore, during the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussion on related issues. In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the current capacity utilization rates of automobiles and parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors are obviously low, especially for automobiles. The current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June. This also explains that used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>Outlook: It is expected that the upward revision will continue, but the adjustment sentiment will fall at the margin; There is still stamina in the third quarter quarter</p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for U.S. stock profits has been rapidly revised upward. However, the more sensitive profit adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward adjustment of the number of analysts) began to be rapidly revised upward in the second quarter, but began to gradually stabilize at the end of May, indicating that The fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed, and the upward revision momentum has slowed down.<b>Looking forward, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What is the upcoming second-quarter performance period of US stocks?</b></p><p>Recently, as U.S. inflation has once again exceeded expectations, the market's concerns about whether the U.S. stock market can continue its upward trend under high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Fed's policy will be tightened in advance, have once again heated up.</p><p>We mentioned in our recent review \"Unexpected Inflation vs. Relatively Calm Market\" that the reason why the market is relatively calm is mainly due to such high prices (for example, used cars rose 45% year-on-year. If used cars are deducted, the CPI in June will be basically flat year-on-year), which makes the market think it is unsustainable, but more importantly, Powell still maintained the judgment that inflation is temporary and there is no rush to exit the policy at the hearing (\"The Fed is still in no rush to exit\").</p><p><i>After deducting second-hand car prices, inflation in June was only basically the same as that in May</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, regardless of some short-term emotional changes, the fundamental situation is the core of judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>What's more, since the US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, the valuation of US stocks has been basically flat, and profitability is the core variable driving market performance</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend does not completely reverse, even in the face of the volatility that may bring about many uncertainties</b>。</p><p>In fact, the performance in the first quarter greatly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. the expected 21% and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), which promoted the continued upward revision of performance (\"Eight Characteristics of Current U.S. Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus expectations It is expected that the profit growth rate in 2021 is expected to reach 38% and 11% in 2021.<b>Under such a strong growth, assuming other things are equal, if you switch to profitability in 2022, the valuation will return to pre-epidemic levels, making the seemingly high valuation not that expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, we will not turn pessimistic about the market as long as the earnings trend does not completely reverse, even in the face of the volatility that may bring about many uncertainties</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The U.S. stock market has been basically flat since the third quarter of last year</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If you switch to 2022 earnings in the second half (light blue), then valuations will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The S&P 500's 2021 EPS consensus expects a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and the market consensus expects a year-on-year increase of 10.9% in 2022.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1. Overall situation: further acceleration in the second quarter; Durable goods, banks, raw materials and capital goods lead the growth rate</b></p><p>Starting from mid-July, the U.S. stock market will gradually enter the 2Q21 performance period lasting for one month. As we analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash\", we expect to benefit from the low base last year and the continued recovery of service consumption due to epidemic vaccination since the second quarter.<b>U.S. stocks' second-quarter profit growth will be the highest point for the year</b>。 Specifically, referring to Factset's consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500 earnings (comparable caliber) are expected to achieve 66% year-on-year growth (vs. 52% in the first quarter), and the Nasdaq Composite Index is 89% year-on-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>The current market consensus expects the S&P 500 EPS to be 65.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, and the Nasdaq Composite Index EPS to be 88.9% year-on-year in the second quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In addition to net profit, the S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared with the first quarter, while the Nasdaq has declined slightly, but it is still at a high level</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the sector level, combined with the base in the second quarter of last year and the repair situation in the second quarter of this year, the current Factset summary expectations show that,<b>Consumer durable goods, banking, raw materials, capital goods and other sectors lead the profit growth rate, and are expected to achieve profit growth of more than 100%</b>； On the contrary, household goods, healthcare equipment and utilities are expected to have negative earnings growth in the second quarter.<b>From the perspective of improvement, compared with the first quarter, value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking and raw materials may improve significantly</b>, while the profit growth rate of growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, and media entertainment may decline.</p><p><i>The year-on-year growth rate of consumer durables and banks' EPS in the second quarter improved significantly, but household goods, healthcare and equipment are expected to lag behind</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This strength-weakness relationship is generally consistent with the situation in the first quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared with the first quarter, durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, raw materials, etc. improved the most, while retail, diversified finance, and medical and health care equipment declined</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the energy sector's 2021e EPS expectations have been adjusted the most, and banks, raw materials, etc. have also seen significant increases</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Focus of attention: supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditures</b></p><p><b>The current problems faced by U.S. stock companies are no longer the restoration of profits and demand, but more the release of supply and the alleviation of supply and demand bottlenecks</b>。 Therefore, during the second quarter performance period, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussion on related issues. Judging from the monthly high-frequency data as of June, the overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not been fully restored to the level of 75.8% in January. Especially for durable consumer goods that are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, the current capacity utilization rate is only It is 74%, which is still far from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the epidemic.</p><p>In terms of industries, compared with the high point of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>At present, the capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, aviation transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low.</b>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditures of enterprises. Judging from the situation as of the first quarter, the capital expenditures of U.S. enterprises also show a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation. Those industries with strong demand, full production capacity and capability Capital Expenditures are repaired faster, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, biopharmaceuticals and other industries; On the contrary, other industries such as energy, transportation and commercial services are still lagging behind.</p><p><i>Overall U.S. capacity utilization is currently at 75.5% and has not yet fully recovered to January's level of 75.8%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially for durable consumer goods, which are greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, the current capacity utilization rate is only 74%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The capacity utilization rate of automobiles and parts, aviation transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, metal processing and other sectors is obviously low</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, but it fell further in June, which also explains that used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thus pushing inflation higher</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of U.S. companies has also shown a very differentiated K-shaped repair situation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Outlook: It is expected to continue to be revised upward, but the adjustment sentiment will fall back at the margin; There is still stamina in the third quarter quarter</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectation for U.S. stock profits has been rapidly revised upward. Currently, the market expects the S&P 500 EPS to increase by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and 10.9% year-on-year in 2022; Nasdaq's 2021 EPS increased by 49.2% year-on-year, and its 2022 EPS increased by 19.0% year-on-year. However, more sensitive earnings correction sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst count)<b>Rapid upward revision began in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed, and the upward revision momentum has slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking forward,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</b>。 At present, the market expects a profit growth rate of 24% in the third quarter, which is one of the main reasons why we remain positive about the growth and market of the United States in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, profit adjustment sentiment has been rapidly revised upward, but it gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest stage of profit upward revision may have passed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect that there will still be stamina in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market dynamics: Inflation rose more than expected in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales showed that demand remained strong; US Treasury yields hits a new low, bulls increase, and dollar shorts fall sharply</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: bonds > stocks > bulk; Interest rates hit new lows, cycle underperforms</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of heavy data and events in the United States.<b>After experiencing more than expected inflation in June</b>(\"Inflation that exceeds expectations vs. a relatively calm market\"),<b>Still dovish Powell testimony</b>(\"The Fed is still in no hurry to exit\"),<b>After retail sales exceeded expectations but fell short of expected consumer confidence index, the U.S. stock market as a whole closed slightly lower, and the financial cycle underperformed</b>At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell to a recent low and fell back to 1.29%. The real interest rate fell, but inflation expectations rose. In terms of major global assets, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk stocks, VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks led the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>In the past week, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stock market, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, Nasdaq lead losses</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Utilities, household goods led gains over the past week; Energy, semiconductors, consumer services lead losses</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell about 7bps from last week, with real interest rates falling 11bps and inflation expectations rising 4bps.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the epidemic-damaged and cyclical sectors relatively underperformed, while the epidemic-damaged sectors relatively outperformed</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Emotional position: The Put/call ratio rose, and the short position of the US dollar decreased significantly</b></p><p>In the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in U.S. stocks (10-day average) has risen sharply from last week, and is currently higher than the historical average of-1 standard deviation. In terms of positions, the US Dollar Index's long and short positions have been significantly reduced, resulting in a sharp increase in net long positions; With the further decline of US Treasury yields, the long position of 10-year U.S. bonds has increased significantly, and the short position of 2-year U.S. bonds has decreased significantly.</p><p><i>The CBOE U.S. stock bearish/bullish option ratio (10-day average) has increased significantly from last week, and is currently higher than the historical average-1 times standard deviation</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the RSI points of European and American stock markets have all fallen, while Japan and emerging markets have risen; Brent oil falls back</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the US Dollar Index long positions have continued to increase, short positions have decreased significantly, and net long positions have risen significantly</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Capital flow: The cargo base turned into outflow, and the stock market accelerated inflow.</b></p><p>In the past week, bond market inflows have slowed down, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money funds have outflowed significantly; In terms of markets, the inflow of stock markets in the United States and Japan accelerated, the inflow of developed Europe slowed down, and the inflow of emerging markets represented by China turned into inflow.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond inflows have slowed, stock inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have turned to big outflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, inflows from the US and Japan accelerated, inflows from developed Europe slowed down, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned into inflows</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>U.S. inflation rose more than expected in June, and used cars and travel related companies remained the main contributors.</b>The CPI in June was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeded market expectations. Among them, the price of used cars jumped 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third of the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in June. The supply constraints caused by factors such as the lack of chips are still the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel demand after the restoration and opening of the epidemic, such as air tickets and hotels, also increased significantly. For example, the ticket counting price in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>June retail sales surprisingly increased 0.6% month-on-month</b>, higher than the expected-0.3% and previous value (-1.7%). Looking at items,<b>Retail sales of automobiles and parts fell 2% month-on-month, possibly dragged down by recent supply shortages and surging prices</b>, but department stores, groceries, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month. However, the larger-than-expected retail consumption was offset by the lower-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (80.8 in July, lower than the previous value of 85.5 and lower than expected (86.5)). At the same time, the number of first applicants last week was 360,000, lower than the previous value (386,000) but less than the expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data for the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The U.S. CPI exceeded expectations again in June, 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month. Used cars and travel-related services are still the most important contributors</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. retail sales in June were 0.6% month-on-month, higher than expectations of-0.3%</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In terms of items, retail sales of automobiles and parts fell by 2% month-on-month, but department stores, grocery stores, electronics and household appliances rose from the previous month</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In the past week, the Fed's average daily reverse repurchase usage remained at a high level, exceeding $800 billion</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current size of the Fed's balance sheet is about US $8.20 trillion, a significant increase from last week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market Valuation: Valuation fell slightly.</b></p><p>As the 10-year US Treasury yields continued to fall last week, the current S&P 500 index's 27.7 times static P/E is basically at a reasonable level that can be supported by growth (June ISM manufacturing PMI = 60.6) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields 1.36%). level (~ 27.9 times). The valuation levels of stock markets in major global markets, including Europe, Japan and emerging markets, have all declined, but they are at relatively high levels in history.</p><p><i>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 index dropped slightly to 21.3 times, more than double the standard deviation of the average since 1990</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current 27.7 times static P/E of the S&P 500 is basically at a reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 27.9 times)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此，从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位\n\n板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。\n往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降\n►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀（《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》）、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落\n\n过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值：估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142518512,"gmtCreate":1626160771436,"gmtModify":1703754543706,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571463119794412","idStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yo....","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yo....","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yo....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2001bc80be5cf8e5f21cb04bd375255b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142518512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142614762,"gmtCreate":1626145780256,"gmtModify":1703754264006,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571463119794412","idStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00338dc69005fe8ac6362b1b53728083","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142614762","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142132694,"gmtCreate":1626135818118,"gmtModify":1703753957542,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571463119794412","idStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142132694","repostId":"1153344848","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153344848","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1626135503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153344848?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"For the chip! Just now, the 1.7 trillion Meituan also made a move!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153344848","media":"中国基金报","summary":"半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资","content":"<p><div>The semiconductor sector has become the hottest concept this year. Looking at A-shares, the semiconductor index has soared by nearly 57% since the end of March, and many stocks have soared due to the concept of \"semiconductor\". The latest news, Wang Xing also made a move! Meituan's subsidiaries and affiliated companies have both invested in semiconductor companies! Wang Xing invested in the semiconductor company Tianyancha shows that recently, Shanghai Zhixin Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. conducted Series B financing, and Meituan's affiliated company Kuxun Technology and Meituan Industrial Fund Meituan Dragon Ball both appeared on the investors. In addition, the investors include Wangtai Henghui Investment Fund, Tianchuang Capital, Yaotu Capital GGV GGV...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>For the chip! Just now, the 1.7 trillion Meituan also made a move!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFor the chip! Just now, the 1.7 trillion Meituan also made a move!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 08:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The semiconductor sector has become the hottest concept this year. Looking at A-shares, the semiconductor index has soared by nearly 57% since the end of March, and many stocks have soared due to the concept of \"semiconductor\". The latest news, Wang Xing also made a move! Meituan's subsidiaries and affiliated companies have both invested in semiconductor companies! Wang Xing invested in the semiconductor company Tianyancha shows that recently, Shanghai Zhixin Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. conducted Series B financing, and Meituan's affiliated company Kuxun Technology and Meituan Industrial Fund Meituan Dragon Ball both appeared on the investors. In addition, the investors include Wangtai Henghui Investment Fund, Tianchuang Capital, Yaotu Capital GGV GGV...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","03690":"美团-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153344848","content_text":"半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资半导体企业\n天眼查显示，近日，上海智砹芯半导体科技有限公司进行了B轮融资，美团关联公司酷讯科技、美团产业基金美团龙珠均在投资方上出现。\n此外，投资方还有旺泰恒辉投资基金、天创资本、耀途资本GGV纪源资本、冯源资本。\n\n酷讯科技、美团龙珠均为美团旗下或者关联企业。北京酷讯科技有限公司由Xigua Limited全资持股，美团联合创始人穆荣均任执行董事。\n同时，上海智砹芯半导体科技发生工商变更，新增美团关联公司北京酷讯科技有限公司等为股东，同时公司注册资本由约1.75亿人民币增至约2.05亿人民币。\n\n资料显示，爱芯科技致力于高性能、低功耗人工智能处理器芯片研发，基于算法、芯片、产品的垂直整合，为合作伙伴提供全栈式解决方案，帮助客户实现最新技术快速落地。爱芯自主研发面向推理加速的神经网络处理器IP，集强大算力与超低功耗于一体，可支持物体检测、人脸识别等多种视觉任务开发，广泛应用于智慧城市，智慧零售、智能社区、智能家居、物联网设备等多个领域。\n此前投出喜茶、理想等爆款项目\n又完成了50亿元第二期基金募资\n据悉，目前，龙珠投资、美团战投以及王兴的个人投资，已经成为美团投资的“三驾马车”。此外，王兴还通过“上海汉创投资管理有限公司”和源码资本两条路径，成为辰海资本一家投资主体的最终受益人。从收益的角度看，投资业务也能赋能整个美团生态。\n其中，本次出现在爱芯科技的龙珠投资，资料显示，龙珠是美团首次发起设立美团产业基金。 美团产业基金的另一大特色是设立专业的战略顾问团队和投后管理，由王兴带队，同时包括王慧文等美团的核心管理团队。\n首期基金于 2018 年募集 20 亿元，出资人有美团、腾讯、招商资本局母基金等。\n据悉，首期基金将重点投资大消费领域C轮以前的项目投资，投资方向包括to B及to C，具体包括餐饮、零售、及酒店旅游、休闲娱乐等本地生活服务领域，单个项目的投资金额会在3000万人民币到1亿人民币之间。\n据悉，首期基金，美团龙珠资本与高瓴资本联合领投蜜雪冰城；独家投资喜茶的 B 轮融资；参与了理想汽车的 C 轮融资。现在理想汽车已经美股上市，市值 238 亿美元；蜜雪冰城也被传将于今年登陆 A 股，目前估值超 200 亿元；据多名投资人透露，目前还没有明确上市计划的喜茶，估值已达到 330 亿元。新茶饮品牌古茗奶茶，美团龙珠资本也是最大外部投资人。\n除了上述项目之外，美团龙珠资本还投资了谊品生鲜、Swiggy（印度外卖平台）、乐禾食品和幸福西饼等品牌。\n\n第二期基金近50亿元的融资在3月份举行，基石投资者中包括美团和腾讯。在完成第二期募资的同时，美团龙珠投资委员会迎来一位新的合伙人于红，成为美团龙珠投资委员会的第四位成员。\n于红先后任职于华兴资本、 GGV 纪源资本，其领域偏向科技互联网行业。在纪源资本任执行董事期间，她的投资成果包括作业帮、Musical.ly 和火花思维。\n据了解，第二期的 50 亿元除了用于继续深耕大消费的同时，将往物流等领域拓展。此前，外界曾将美团龙珠资本称为 “美团战投二部”，但在增加新的投资方向后，二者的区别会更明显。\n而王兴执掌的美团，最新市值为1.74万亿港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"03690":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156277654,"gmtCreate":1625228094378,"gmtModify":1703738833041,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571463119794412","idStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, 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