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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
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2021-06-12
nice
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
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2021-06-12
nice
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
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2021-04-13
gut
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
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2021-04-13
good article
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
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2021-04-13
n1
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
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2021-04-13
n1
三倍做多指數,還留麼?
@小贝导演:
大家好,我是小貝導演。這陣頻繁出差,帖子更新有點慢不好意思。這陣美股依舊動盪,我資金變化不大,雖然毛票確實挺慘的……但是習慣就好,他幾個月跌了50%,可能一晚上就翻倍了,毛票一直都這麼刺激,我現在持倉裏的毛票有CTRM,SYN,NPSR,還有SENS,CLBS。中概股裏只有老虎了,16的底拿的比較穩。美股裏還有FUBO和WISH,以及蛋疼的PSAC,FUBO均價24,WISH16,小虧中。完後主要資金爲求穩,買了好多花旗,TQQQ,UDOW,完後吧,這一陣花旗沒動……就當保本了吧,UDOW和TQQQ馬上又突破新高了,不過每次突破新高的時候,就會回調,所以大家可以見好就收先落袋,等大回調的時候在建倉,尤其拜登要大力發展基建,UDOW還是穩。之前少帥帖子裏寫過關於TQQQ的問題,我並不是很認同。TQQQ,這股票我玩了一年多了,虧損非常小,和原油期貨不同。帖子裏這哥們虧損了31%,估計是105左右買的,完後一路回調到了80,導致心態有點崩,當然如果他沒有割的話,現在也賺回來了。UDOW,和TQQQ都一樣,不計較短期收益,看長期就是沒問題。TQQQ基本又要到新高了,我會先出來,等大跌再入,不過我更偏向UDOW道指,畢竟拜登的主旋律還是基建。這陣我空餘了45%閒置資金了,等等行情,準備大幹一把。美股我依舊距離峯值回吐了5W刀,不過美股很快,一波就可以搞起來,切記別滿倉,別加槓桿~
三倍做多指數,還留麼?
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
·
2021-04-13
Crypto is up and coming ???
The mathematical improbability of Coinbase justifying a $100 billion valuation
Nothing better epitomizes the zaniness ruling financial markets these days than the great expectatio
The mathematical improbability of Coinbase justifying a $100 billion valuation
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
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2021-04-13
nice
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
·
2021-02-26
Good luck all
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Zacchaeus
Zacchaeus
·
2021-02-24
Schon gut!
Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500
Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie
Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500
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is up and coming ???","listText":"Crypto is up and coming ???","text":"Crypto is up and coming ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345113418","repostId":"1154178432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154178432","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618285972,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154178432?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The mathematical improbability of Coinbase justifying a $100 billion valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154178432","media":"Fortune","summary":"Nothing better epitomizes the zaniness ruling financial markets these days than the great expectatio","content":"<p>Nothing better epitomizes the zaniness ruling financial markets these days than the great expectations surrounding the Coinbase IPO slated for April 14. The euphoria over the first major cryptocurrency player to go public is of a piece with the damn-the-fundamentals craze that's spawned the Tesla phenomenon and pushed U.S. equities to near-bubble territory. Wall Street analysts and Bitcoin-loving investors are forecasting that Coinbase could debut at a $100 billion valuation.</p><p>To justify that number, the math shows, Coinbase would need to mushroom into the biggest financial exchange in the world. \"It's part of the overall frenzy creating bubbles everywhere,\" says David Trainer, an analyst at research firm New Constructs. \"When you do the numbers, there's no way to make an argument for owning this stock with a straight face.\"</p><p>Trainer just released an excellent analysis of Coinbase's prospects. It shows how new competition will hammer today's fat margins and argues that the crypto market won't be nearly as gigantic as Coinbase anticipates—all told making for a franchise worth a fraction of what its fans will be paying on opening day.</p><p><b>The flush times won’t last</b></p><p>Coinbase turned strongly profitable last year, more than doubling revenues from $483 million to $1.14 billion and lifting operating profits from a $45 million deficit to $409 million. Its registration statement discloses that Coinbase generated 87% of those revenues from trading and selling Bitcoin, Ethereum, and almost 50 other coins for both retail and institutional customers. Surprisingly, money managers and corporations now account for over half of its trades, bolstering its pitch that crypto is going mainstream in a big way. Its 35% operating return on sales equaled the 2020 margin posted by Goldman Sachs’s Global Markets franchise in one of its best years ever.</p><p>But what's really ignited Coinbase fever is the astounding results for its March quarter, released on April 6. Its Q1 revenues soared 11-fold to $1.8 billion, 58% more than it collected in<i>all of</i>2020, and operating income rose to over $1 billion, doubling the figure for last year. Its operating margin of around 55% far exceeds what the trading arms of the Wall Street banks pocketed in a banner 2020.</p><p>But here's the real head-spinner: Coinbase generated 0.46% on each dollar it traded in cryptocurrencies, or almost $300 for every Bitcoin it bought and sold for customers. It's the impossibility of maintaining anything like those superrich, virtually never-before-seen trading margins that underscores how Coinbase's likely valuation will be wildly out of whack with its actual prospects.</p><p><b>Enter the competition</b></p><p>In its S-1, Coinbase details that it charges customers a flat fee, reportedly around 0.5% on the dollar value of a Bitcoin or Ethereum trade. That charge can be lower or higher depending on the volumes—the more business a customer trades, the lower the percentage—or the regions where the client operates. It also collects much smaller amounts from the spread between the \"ask\" at which it buys for customers, and the \"bid\" at which it sells. How does the Q1 average fee of 0.46% compare with the figures for the two largest owners of securities exchanges in America, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Nasdaq Inc.?</p><p>In 2020, ICE and Nasdaq each made an average of 0.01% on each dollar of securities' trades. Hence, Coinbase reaped about 50 times the margins of those longstanding, gargantuan marketplaces. It generated the equivalent of three-quarters of Nasdaq's trading revenues—$1.5 billion versus $2.0 billion—on 2% of the volumes.</p><p>It can't last, says Trainer. He predicts that fees for trading cryptocurrencies will follow a similar downward trajectory as those in stocks, possibly all the way to zero. Coinbase's slice of each transaction is so big, and its profits so gigantic, that rivals can slash what they're charging and still mint huge profits. \"Competitors such as Gemini, Bitstamp, Kraken, Binance, and others will likely lower or zero trading fees to take market share,\" he says. \"If margins are that good, you invite competition.\" That will start a \"race to the bottom\" similar to the contest for market share that triggered the collapse, then virtual elimination, of stock commissions in 2019. Trainer also expects traditional brokerages to soon offer trading in cryptocurrencies, further pressuring Coinbase's rich fees.</p><p><b>How fast must Coinbase grow to be worth $100 billion?</b></p><p>Trainer ran the numbers. For Coinbase to reach $100 billion market cap by 2027, its revenues would need to jump 50% a year to $21.3 billion, while free cash flow keeps pace, waxing to $3.2 billion, more than 10 times the figure for last year. It would still be selling at a rich multiple of 30 times cash flow. At $20-billion-plus, Coinbase would exceed the combined 2020 revenues of ICE and Nasdaq by 50%.</p><p>Put simply, to reach the size worthy of a $100 billion market cap—and that's starting today—Coinbase would probably need to become the biggest exchange in the world. That's the bet investors are making if they buy its shares at the April 14 offering and beyond.</p><p><b>Can Coinbase get there?</b></p><p>For Trainer, grabbing the trophy looks like a mathematical impossibility. If Coinbase's operating margins decline to the average level of 23% for the 18 largest investment banks—still a big number—and its revenues grow at a strong 21%, the rate that Nasdaq achieved in its rapid growth phase, it will be worth $18.9 billion, or over 80% less than the $100 billion it could command next week.</p><p>Another distressing metric: Say Bitcoin's trading margin declines from 0.46% to 0.10%. That's still 10 times what ICE and Nasdaq are generating. To reach the $21.3 billion in revenue that rings the bell, by<i>Fortune’</i>s estimates, Coinbase would need to trade $17 trillion a year in Bitcoin and other tokens. That's<i>four times</i>the total volumes for all cryptocurrencies, on every exchange, for 2020.</p><p>For Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, a future in which such epic numbers are achieved looks anything but impossible. The S-1 states that \"crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the Internet.\" He's selling a growth story for an investment that's still far from mainstream. For Trainer, Coinbase is the epitome of a \"meme stock that's traded without regard for the fundamentals.\" The vision is compelling as long as it remains lofty and doesn't get too specific about the heroics needed to be worth $100 billion. Investors should keep in mind that they'll be paying a stratospheric price for backing a daring expedition that's unlikely to reach the mountaintop.</p>","source":"lsy1618285953446","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The mathematical improbability of Coinbase justifying a $100 billion valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe mathematical improbability of Coinbase justifying a $100 billion valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 11:52 GMT+8 <a href=https://fortune.com/2021/04/12/coinbase-ipo-valuation-100-billion-justification-crypto/><strong>Fortune</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nothing better epitomizes the zaniness ruling financial markets these days than the great expectations surrounding the Coinbase IPO slated for April 14. The euphoria over the first major ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://fortune.com/2021/04/12/coinbase-ipo-valuation-100-billion-justification-crypto/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://fortune.com/2021/04/12/coinbase-ipo-valuation-100-billion-justification-crypto/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154178432","content_text":"Nothing better epitomizes the zaniness ruling financial markets these days than the great expectations surrounding the Coinbase IPO slated for April 14. The euphoria over the first major cryptocurrency player to go public is of a piece with the damn-the-fundamentals craze that's spawned the Tesla phenomenon and pushed U.S. equities to near-bubble territory. Wall Street analysts and Bitcoin-loving investors are forecasting that Coinbase could debut at a $100 billion valuation.To justify that number, the math shows, Coinbase would need to mushroom into the biggest financial exchange in the world. \"It's part of the overall frenzy creating bubbles everywhere,\" says David Trainer, an analyst at research firm New Constructs. \"When you do the numbers, there's no way to make an argument for owning this stock with a straight face.\"Trainer just released an excellent analysis of Coinbase's prospects. It shows how new competition will hammer today's fat margins and argues that the crypto market won't be nearly as gigantic as Coinbase anticipates—all told making for a franchise worth a fraction of what its fans will be paying on opening day.The flush times won’t lastCoinbase turned strongly profitable last year, more than doubling revenues from $483 million to $1.14 billion and lifting operating profits from a $45 million deficit to $409 million. Its registration statement discloses that Coinbase generated 87% of those revenues from trading and selling Bitcoin, Ethereum, and almost 50 other coins for both retail and institutional customers. Surprisingly, money managers and corporations now account for over half of its trades, bolstering its pitch that crypto is going mainstream in a big way. Its 35% operating return on sales equaled the 2020 margin posted by Goldman Sachs’s Global Markets franchise in one of its best years ever.But what's really ignited Coinbase fever is the astounding results for its March quarter, released on April 6. Its Q1 revenues soared 11-fold to $1.8 billion, 58% more than it collected inall of2020, and operating income rose to over $1 billion, doubling the figure for last year. Its operating margin of around 55% far exceeds what the trading arms of the Wall Street banks pocketed in a banner 2020.But here's the real head-spinner: Coinbase generated 0.46% on each dollar it traded in cryptocurrencies, or almost $300 for every Bitcoin it bought and sold for customers. It's the impossibility of maintaining anything like those superrich, virtually never-before-seen trading margins that underscores how Coinbase's likely valuation will be wildly out of whack with its actual prospects.Enter the competitionIn its S-1, Coinbase details that it charges customers a flat fee, reportedly around 0.5% on the dollar value of a Bitcoin or Ethereum trade. That charge can be lower or higher depending on the volumes—the more business a customer trades, the lower the percentage—or the regions where the client operates. It also collects much smaller amounts from the spread between the \"ask\" at which it buys for customers, and the \"bid\" at which it sells. How does the Q1 average fee of 0.46% compare with the figures for the two largest owners of securities exchanges in America, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Nasdaq Inc.?In 2020, ICE and Nasdaq each made an average of 0.01% on each dollar of securities' trades. Hence, Coinbase reaped about 50 times the margins of those longstanding, gargantuan marketplaces. It generated the equivalent of three-quarters of Nasdaq's trading revenues—$1.5 billion versus $2.0 billion—on 2% of the volumes.It can't last, says Trainer. He predicts that fees for trading cryptocurrencies will follow a similar downward trajectory as those in stocks, possibly all the way to zero. Coinbase's slice of each transaction is so big, and its profits so gigantic, that rivals can slash what they're charging and still mint huge profits. \"Competitors such as Gemini, Bitstamp, Kraken, Binance, and others will likely lower or zero trading fees to take market share,\" he says. \"If margins are that good, you invite competition.\" That will start a \"race to the bottom\" similar to the contest for market share that triggered the collapse, then virtual elimination, of stock commissions in 2019. Trainer also expects traditional brokerages to soon offer trading in cryptocurrencies, further pressuring Coinbase's rich fees.How fast must Coinbase grow to be worth $100 billion?Trainer ran the numbers. For Coinbase to reach $100 billion market cap by 2027, its revenues would need to jump 50% a year to $21.3 billion, while free cash flow keeps pace, waxing to $3.2 billion, more than 10 times the figure for last year. It would still be selling at a rich multiple of 30 times cash flow. At $20-billion-plus, Coinbase would exceed the combined 2020 revenues of ICE and Nasdaq by 50%.Put simply, to reach the size worthy of a $100 billion market cap—and that's starting today—Coinbase would probably need to become the biggest exchange in the world. That's the bet investors are making if they buy its shares at the April 14 offering and beyond.Can Coinbase get there?For Trainer, grabbing the trophy looks like a mathematical impossibility. If Coinbase's operating margins decline to the average level of 23% for the 18 largest investment banks—still a big number—and its revenues grow at a strong 21%, the rate that Nasdaq achieved in its rapid growth phase, it will be worth $18.9 billion, or over 80% less than the $100 billion it could command next week.Another distressing metric: Say Bitcoin's trading margin declines from 0.46% to 0.10%. That's still 10 times what ICE and Nasdaq are generating. To reach the $21.3 billion in revenue that rings the bell, byFortune’s estimates, Coinbase would need to trade $17 trillion a year in Bitcoin and other tokens. That'sfour timesthe total volumes for all cryptocurrencies, on every exchange, for 2020.For Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, a future in which such epic numbers are achieved looks anything but impossible. The S-1 states that \"crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the Internet.\" He's selling a growth story for an investment that's still far from mainstream. For Trainer, Coinbase is the epitome of a \"meme stock that's traded without regard for the fundamentals.\" The vision is compelling as long as it remains lofty and doesn't get too specific about the heroics needed to be worth $100 billion. Investors should keep in mind that they'll be paying a stratospheric price for backing a daring expedition that's unlikely to reach the mountaintop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345113836,"gmtCreate":1618286472525,"gmtModify":1704708618024,"author":{"id":"3571961662143942","authorId":"3571961662143942","name":"Zacchaeus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d003759145d432b6a0393561eaccbd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571961662143942","idStr":"3571961662143942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345113836","repostId":"1146450605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368466805,"gmtCreate":1614348779107,"gmtModify":1704771011115,"author":{"id":"3571961662143942","authorId":"3571961662143942","name":"Zacchaeus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d003759145d432b6a0393561eaccbd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571961662143942","idStr":"3571961662143942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck all","listText":"Good luck all","text":"Good luck all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368466805","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363794452,"gmtCreate":1614171098576,"gmtModify":1704889040010,"author":{"id":"3571961662143942","authorId":"3571961662143942","name":"Zacchaeus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d003759145d432b6a0393561eaccbd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571961662143942","idStr":"3571961662143942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Schon gut!","listText":"Schon gut!","text":"Schon gut!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363794452","repostId":"1129467108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129467108","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614164417,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129467108?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-24 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129467108","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie","content":"<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p>TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 19:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129467108","content_text":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}