CTA started cutting on their SP500 longs about 2weeks back, now about 20% of their max length. Copper about 15-20% of max length as well. US bonds/Treasuries increasing positions to about 80% long. Crude/Oil Products near max length.
Bitcoin (BTC) Historic Breakdown Below Key Moving Averages Amid Severe Liquidations Bitcoin's price action has taken a decidedly bearish turn, with the asset dropping below the crucial 64,000 USDT support level to trade at 63,953.89 USDT, representing a severe 5.09% decrease over the past 24 hours. The decline was accompanied by significant technical damage, as Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) of approximately $67,628 for the first time since October 2023 [Cointelegraph]. This breakdown effectively ends an 882-day uptrend and shifts the market focus toward deeper historical value zones. If this downward trajectory persists through the end of the month, Bitcoin will record its fifth consecutive month of losses, matching the second-longest
USD The US Dollar experienced a volatile week, marked by shifting sentiment around trade policy, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic data (GS). Key Market Drivers: A major driver for the US Dollar this week was the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, which introduced a fresh injection of policy uncertainty (GS). Following the Supreme Court striking down the bulk of the levies imposed last year under the federal emergency-powers law, the Dollar saw a muted depreciation against a broad range of currencies (GS). The broad Dollar decline likely reflects this policy uncertainty, which can negatively influence investor and business activity (GS). In response to the ruling, President Trump announced plans to impose a 10% stackable global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, whi
5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis The global crude oil market is currently navigating a complex environment defined by the intersection of heightened geopolitical risks and underlying structural surpluses, a dynamic that has pushed Brent crude prices decisively above the $71 per barrel threshold. Market sentiment is heavily influenced by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, prompting a significant recovery in speculative positioning and injecting a substantial risk premium into the energy complex. Goldman Sachs has recently raised its 2026 price forecast, noting that while they maintain an expectation of a persistent global surplus, the anticipated price floor for Brent has been elevated to $60 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. This upward revision is primarily driven by
Bitcoin (BTC) Institutional Accumulation Contrasts with Historic Losing Streak Bitcoin (BTC) is currently facing intense downward pressure, with prices dropping below the 65,000 USDT threshold to trade at 64,688.48 USDT, reflecting a 5.04% decrease over the past 24 hours. The asset remains below the critical 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately $68,350, a level that has historically served as vital support during past bear markets [PANews]. This current price action extends Bitcoin's downward trajectory to five consecutive months starting from October of last year [http://NS3.AI]. If this trend persists through the end of the month, Bitcoin will tie its longest historical losing streak of six months, previously recorded between August 2018 and January 2019. Despite th
USD The US Dollar is experiencing a significant shift in market dynamics as analysts observe a breakdown in traditional economic correlations. According to an ex-Goldman Sachs strategist, a decade-long trend of the USD rising on better-than-expected monthly payrolls is coming to an end. This marks a structural "regime change" where traders are now actively selling the greenback despite strong US job market data. The core driver behind this shift is the market's overarching expectation that the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates. Even after the January jobs report showed an impressive 130,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.3%, the USD ended the trading session lower, capping four straight days of losses. The market is interpreting that if the Fed adopts policies
5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis The global crude oil market is currently navigating a highly volatile and complex landscape defined by acute geopolitical tensions, significant inventory shifts, and deeply divided analyst forecasts. Prices have surged to multi-month highs, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closing at a six-month high of $66.43 per barrel and April Brent reaching $71.68 per barrel, driven primarily by escalating fears of a military conflict between the United States and Iran [Argus]. The Trump Administration has aggressively repositioned naval and air force assets, including moving the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike group toward the Mediterranean, sharply elevating the geopolitical risk premium as traders fear potential disruptions to the critical Strait of Hormuz [Argus
Bitcoin (BTC) Institutional Infrastructure Expansion Counters Macro Pressures Bitcoin is currently trading in the $66,000 to $67,162 range, having retraced significantly from its previous peaks, with analysts at Glassnode pointing to a range-bound market confined between $79,000 and the $54,900 realized price floor [The Block]. Despite short-term price stagnation and a fragile accumulation pattern, institutional infrastructure continues to expand at a rapid pace. CME Group announced plans to launch 24/7 Bitcoin futures and options trading on May 29, pending regulatory approval, citing a record $3 trillion in notional volume across its crypto derivatives [The Block]. In the corporate treasury space, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich publicly defended his firm's systematic Bitcoin accumulation
1.0 Executive Summary Market Sentiment: Global markets are trading with a distinct "risk-off" tone as "AI jitters" trigger a broad sell-off in technology stocks, spilling over into commodities and high-beta currencies. The US Dollar has steadied after recent weakness, while the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are outperforming as investors seek safety. Geopolitical tensions remain a backdrop, with the market closely watching US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing "noisy" interpretation of US labor data. Key Themes: Macro Ambiguity: The US January NFP report delivered a "headline beat" of 130k jobs but was undermined by massive negative revisions (-862k through March 2025), complicating the Fed's policy path [Saxo]. JPY Resurgence: Hedge funds have aggressively flipped to a net bullish stance on
Selloff in Brent yesterday means improving risk-reward on going going long Brent now with the fundamental factors predicting a FV of about 69. However with CTA Brent positioning still near highs (longs), we could see more selling pressure so I suggest wait till their selling is done before going long (next big selling point is at 64 levels)