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Lawrance

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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-04-09
  $SOS Limited(SOS)$gogogo
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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-03-04
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$?
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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-03-03
  $Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fda？？
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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-03-01
  $SOS Limited(SOS)$fly to the moon ！
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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-02-27
  $Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$?
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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-02-19
  $Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fed up
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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-02-19
  $Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$where is the report
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- LawranceLawrance
  ·2021-02-18
  ?
  U.S. Stocks: Twenty Years of Group History
  前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象
  U.S. Stocks: Twenty Years of Group History
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>gogogo","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f294a308409227d45bc0b0237d91a4b","width":"1080","height":"2337"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348868975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3565765044728716","authorId":"3565765044728716","name":"Dokota_fanni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4285a986cb76f61feab73ee72b020b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3565765044728716","idStr":"3565765044728716"},"content":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","text":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","html":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364590871,"gmtCreate":1614861724893,"gmtModify":1704776162348,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>?","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b05dda53794a57e4c09dfb82032e66d","width":"898","height":"195"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364590871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365481144,"gmtCreate":1614770660188,"gmtModify":1704774994949,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fda？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fda？？","text":"$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fda？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365481144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362305182,"gmtCreate":1614593214946,"gmtModify":1704772794801,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>fly to the moon ！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>fly to the moon ！","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$fly to the moon ！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073aa4df108056ffcf7bdca006869fb","width":"1176","height":"2091"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362305182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366989563,"gmtCreate":1614383909352,"gmtModify":1704771380398,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","text":"$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366989563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387133078,"gmtCreate":1613726474794,"gmtModify":1704884178040,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fed up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fed up","text":"$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fed up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387133078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384753279,"gmtCreate":1613693244091,"gmtModify":1704883703988,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>where is the report","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>where is the report","text":"$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$where is the report","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384753279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384259858,"gmtCreate":1613658158374,"gmtModify":1704883314612,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384259858","repostId":"1152855899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152855899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613657987,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152855899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-18 22:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Stocks: Twenty Years of Group History","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152855899","media":"国盛策略","summary":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象","content":"<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extreme differentiation pattern, with institutional groupings intensifying, and \"grouping stocks\" rising strongly, which has triggered the market's fear of heights. Recently, there has been a correction of \"group stocks\", and investors' worries about \"the leading group is too tight\" and \"the group collapses\" have begun to intensify. So how long can the group-holding phenomenon last? Will the group collapse? How will Baotuan perform in the future? The experience of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years has provided us with a reference.</p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>1. US stocks: Institutional grouping is the norm</b></p><p><b>It is the norm for U.S. stock institutions to hold together, and the voice of institutions is constantly enhancing.</b>With the development and growth of US stock institutions, the proportion of institutional shares has increased substantially in the past 20 years. At present, the market value of institutional shares accounts for 70% of the circulating market value of the whole market, becoming the leading force in the US stock market. As of 2020, 33% of individual stocks with more than 80% of institutional ownership accounted for, compared to only 2% in 1999; Stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, compared with only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>The group of US stocks has been deepening, and institutional heavyweight stocks have been overweighted for a long time.</b>If the US stocks with institutional shares accounting for more than 80% are taken as institutional heavyweight stocks, in the past 20 years, the positions of institutions in US stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has been expanding. In 1999, the overweight was 5 points, and in 2020, the overweight reached 12 points.</p><p><b>2. US stocks: What do institutions hold together?</b></p><p><b>1. Group consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in U.S. stocks hold groups for consumption and growth.</b>The top 100 Awkwardness stocks of institutional investors in the United States are concentrated in consumption and growth. The proportion of institutional Awkwardness stocks in consumption and growth style and the proportion of holding market value are always higher than 50%, which is the main direction of institutional investors. The style of grouping has not been stable in the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions increased their positions in financial real estate and cycles in stages. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated consumption and technology, and the proportion of individual stocks and market value has increased sharply. At present, the proportion of market value of consumption and growth has exceeded 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of specific industries, before 2007, institutions were grouped to loosen energy and industry, while since 2007, they adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 heavyweight stocks of institutions, energy, industry, communication and other industries accounted for the largest increase in holdings, reaching 9.30%, 1.96% and 0.78% respectively; Since 2007, the information technology, optional consumer and pharmaceutical industries have regained a substantial increase in holdings, with the increase ratio reaching 13.90%, 11.19% and 1.22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Group leader</b></p><p><b>The chase of US stock institutions for the leader has never stopped in the past 20 years, and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, from the perspective of the number of shareholding institutions, the number of leading shareholding institutions is far ahead.</b>The top 20% of US stocks in circulating market value represent the leader, and the bottom 80% of circulating market value represents the non-leader. The median number of institutions holding the leader has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while the median number of institutions holding the non-leader is still only about 100.</p><p><b>Further grouped according to the circulating market value, the number of shares held by leading institutions is dominant.</b>US stocks are grouped according to the circulating market value. The gap in the number of shareholding institutions with circulating market value greater than 300 billion US dollars, 200-300 billion US dollars, 100-200 billion US dollars and 50-100 billion US dollars has been widening in the past 10 years. The larger the market value, the more concentrated the shareholding institutions, and the stock selection preference of institutions of \"taking big as beauty\" has been further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the proportion of institutional shareholding, the proportion of leading institutions is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median shareholding proportion of leading institutions has basically remained at a high level of about 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the overlap between institutional heavyweight stocks and the leading U.S. stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on the leading stocks.</b>In recent years, the coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 in the market value of institutions to the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 in the whole market has basically remained above 90%, while this ratio was only 50% ~60% around 2000, which shows that the vast majority of leading US stocks have been included in the institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutions has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding accounted for 74.4%, of which Netflix, Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Institutional shareholding accounts for the top share, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively, and FAAMNG is also among the top 20 heavyweight stocks of institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Baotuan High ROE</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preference of U.S. stock institutions from the perspective of heavyweight stocks,</b><b>Compared with profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE level of US institutional Awkwardness is generally high, with the ROE of the top 50 Awkwardness as high as 26.1%, and the ROE of the top 100, 300 and 500 gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE level of all US stocks; However, institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of heavyweight stocks, and the median profit growth rate does not fall back in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, high ROE heavyweight stocks in U.S. stocks enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE of the top 50 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stocks is 30.0, which is significantly higher than 18.9 of all U.S. stocks, and with the decline of positions, PE valuation also decreases in an orderly manner; The same is true of the PB angle. The median PB of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is 7.2, which is higher than the 2.40 of all U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Third, US stocks: Why did the group start?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been an important driver for institutions to adhere to in the past decade.</b>Since the 1990s, the consumption, pharmaceutical and technology industries in the United States have continued to be in an upward cycle of prosperity. In the past 20 years, in addition to the impact of the bursting of the Internet bubble, the ROE level of information technology, medical care, mandatory consumption and other industries has basically been in the range of 20% to 30%, showing stronger and more stable growth and profitability, while the ROE center of cyclical industries such as finance, energy and public utilities has continued to move downward and fluctuated greatly. Driven by the upward trend of fundamentals and prosperity, the leading technology and consumption have become an inevitable choice for institutions to hold together, and with the intensification of differentiation, institutions will hold together more concentrated and closely with science and technology and consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term group of U.S. stock leaders is actually a continuous pursuit of profit certainty and stability.</b>In the medium and long term, the institutionalization of U.S. stocks has brought about a change in the pricing system from valuation-led to profit-led, and institutional investors' shareholding behavior of leading and non-leading institutions also shows obvious ROE-driven characteristics. The differentiation level of shareholding proportion of leading and non-leading institutions in U.S. stocks is consistent with the change between the ROE differentiation level of the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 40 years, the leading US stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to hold groups.</b>In the process of pursuing profit certainty for institutional investors, it has become the most \"correct\" choice to increase the allocation of U.S. stock leaders with higher ROE level. Compared with the median ROE of the top 50, 100 and 300 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stock institutions, it shows that the heavier the stocks, the higher the ROE level, and it has basically remained orderly in the past 20 years, and it is significantly higher than the median level of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to institutional pursuit of certainty, the great development of passive funds in the United States in the past decade has further strengthened the effect of institutional leadership.</b>The scale of ETFs in the United States has increased from less than 20 billion dollars in 1998 to 5.4 trillion dollars in 2020, and the scale of equity ETFs has reached 4.2 trillion dollars, accounting for nearly 80%. Take the big three American ETFs-Vanguard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>State Street, for example, the total shareholding of the three companies in S&P 500 constituent stocks increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continued to concentrate in high-quality leaders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is the norm for US stock institutions to hold together, and the voice of institutions is constantly enhancing, and the overweight of institutions has been maintained for a long time.</b></p><p><b>2. The group of US stock institutions will also loosen to cyclical industries in stages, but in the long run, they will always hold the group for consumption and growth, especially since 2007, they will adhere to information technology and optional consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. The institutional pursuit of the leading US stock market has never stopped in the past two decades, and it has intensified in the past ten years. The number and share of leading shareholding institutions are significantly higher than those of non-leading stocks.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared with the profit growth rate, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and Awkwardness stocks enjoy the valuation premium.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profit certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force for the US stock market. The long-term high-quality fundamental performance of technology and consumption has been dominant for a long time; In the past 40 years, the leading US stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to hold groups.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the great development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional grouping.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET, and there may be statistical errors in third-party data; 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual situation; 3. There are limitations in comparative research methods, and there may be some deviations in conclusions.</p>","source":"lsy1601879145223","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks: Twenty Years of Group History</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks: Twenty Years of Group History\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国盛策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-18 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extreme differentiation pattern, with institutional groupings intensifying, and \"grouping stocks\" rising strongly, which has triggered the market's fear of heights. Recently, there has been a correction of \"group stocks\", and investors' worries about \"the leading group is too tight\" and \"the group collapses\" have begun to intensify. So how long can the group-holding phenomenon last? Will the group collapse? How will Baotuan perform in the future? The experience of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years has provided us with a reference.</p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>1. US stocks: Institutional grouping is the norm</b></p><p><b>It is the norm for U.S. stock institutions to hold together, and the voice of institutions is constantly enhancing.</b>With the development and growth of US stock institutions, the proportion of institutional shares has increased substantially in the past 20 years. At present, the market value of institutional shares accounts for 70% of the circulating market value of the whole market, becoming the leading force in the US stock market. As of 2020, 33% of individual stocks with more than 80% of institutional ownership accounted for, compared to only 2% in 1999; Stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, compared with only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>The group of US stocks has been deepening, and institutional heavyweight stocks have been overweighted for a long time.</b>If the US stocks with institutional shares accounting for more than 80% are taken as institutional heavyweight stocks, in the past 20 years, the positions of institutions in US stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has been expanding. In 1999, the overweight was 5 points, and in 2020, the overweight reached 12 points.</p><p><b>2. US stocks: What do institutions hold together?</b></p><p><b>1. Group consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in U.S. stocks hold groups for consumption and growth.</b>The top 100 Awkwardness stocks of institutional investors in the United States are concentrated in consumption and growth. The proportion of institutional Awkwardness stocks in consumption and growth style and the proportion of holding market value are always higher than 50%, which is the main direction of institutional investors. The style of grouping has not been stable in the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions increased their positions in financial real estate and cycles in stages. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated consumption and technology, and the proportion of individual stocks and market value has increased sharply. At present, the proportion of market value of consumption and growth has exceeded 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of specific industries, before 2007, institutions were grouped to loosen energy and industry, while since 2007, they adhered to information technology and optional consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 heavyweight stocks of institutions, energy, industry, communication and other industries accounted for the largest increase in holdings, reaching 9.30%, 1.96% and 0.78% respectively; Since 2007, the information technology, optional consumer and pharmaceutical industries have regained a substantial increase in holdings, with the increase ratio reaching 13.90%, 11.19% and 1.22% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Group leader</b></p><p><b>The chase of US stock institutions for the leader has never stopped in the past 20 years, and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, from the perspective of the number of shareholding institutions, the number of leading shareholding institutions is far ahead.</b>The top 20% of US stocks in circulating market value represent the leader, and the bottom 80% of circulating market value represents the non-leader. The median number of institutions holding the leader has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while the median number of institutions holding the non-leader is still only about 100.</p><p><b>Further grouped according to the circulating market value, the number of shares held by leading institutions is dominant.</b>US stocks are grouped according to the circulating market value. The gap in the number of shareholding institutions with circulating market value greater than 300 billion US dollars, 200-300 billion US dollars, 100-200 billion US dollars and 50-100 billion US dollars has been widening in the past 10 years. The larger the market value, the more concentrated the shareholding institutions, and the stock selection preference of institutions of \"taking big as beauty\" has been further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of the proportion of institutional shareholding, the proportion of leading institutions is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median shareholding proportion of leading institutions has basically remained at a high level of about 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, from the perspective of the overlap between institutional heavyweight stocks and the leading U.S. stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on the leading stocks.</b>In recent years, the coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 in the market value of institutions to the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 in the whole market has basically remained above 90%, while this ratio was only 50% ~60% around 2000, which shows that the vast majority of leading US stocks have been included in the institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutions has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding accounted for 74.4%, of which Netflix, Facebook,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Institutional shareholding accounts for the top share, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively, and FAAMNG is also among the top 20 heavyweight stocks of institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Baotuan High ROE</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preference of U.S. stock institutions from the perspective of heavyweight stocks,</b><b>Compared with profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE level of US institutional Awkwardness is generally high, with the ROE of the top 50 Awkwardness as high as 26.1%, and the ROE of the top 100, 300 and 500 gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE level of all US stocks; However, institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of heavyweight stocks, and the median profit growth rate does not fall back in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, high ROE heavyweight stocks in U.S. stocks enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE of the top 50 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stocks is 30.0, which is significantly higher than 18.9 of all U.S. stocks, and with the decline of positions, PE valuation also decreases in an orderly manner; The same is true of the PB angle. The median PB of the top 50 heavyweight stocks is 7.2, which is higher than the 2.40 of all U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Third, US stocks: Why did the group start?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been an important driver for institutions to adhere to in the past decade.</b>Since the 1990s, the consumption, pharmaceutical and technology industries in the United States have continued to be in an upward cycle of prosperity. In the past 20 years, in addition to the impact of the bursting of the Internet bubble, the ROE level of information technology, medical care, mandatory consumption and other industries has basically been in the range of 20% to 30%, showing stronger and more stable growth and profitability, while the ROE center of cyclical industries such as finance, energy and public utilities has continued to move downward and fluctuated greatly. Driven by the upward trend of fundamentals and prosperity, the leading technology and consumption have become an inevitable choice for institutions to hold together, and with the intensification of differentiation, institutions will hold together more concentrated and closely with science and technology and consumption.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term group of U.S. stock leaders is actually a continuous pursuit of profit certainty and stability.</b>In the medium and long term, the institutionalization of U.S. stocks has brought about a change in the pricing system from valuation-led to profit-led, and institutional investors' shareholding behavior of leading and non-leading institutions also shows obvious ROE-driven characteristics. The differentiation level of shareholding proportion of leading and non-leading institutions in U.S. stocks is consistent with the change between the ROE differentiation level of the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 40 years, the leading US stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to hold groups.</b>In the process of pursuing profit certainty for institutional investors, it has become the most \"correct\" choice to increase the allocation of U.S. stock leaders with higher ROE level. Compared with the median ROE of the top 50, 100 and 300 heavyweight stocks of U.S. stock institutions, it shows that the heavier the stocks, the higher the ROE level, and it has basically remained orderly in the past 20 years, and it is significantly higher than the median level of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to institutional pursuit of certainty, the great development of passive funds in the United States in the past decade has further strengthened the effect of institutional leadership.</b>The scale of ETFs in the United States has increased from less than 20 billion dollars in 1998 to 5.4 trillion dollars in 2020, and the scale of equity ETFs has reached 4.2 trillion dollars, accounting for nearly 80%. Take the big three American ETFs-Vanguard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>State Street, for example, the total shareholding of the three companies in S&P 500 constituent stocks increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continued to concentrate in high-quality leaders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is the norm for US stock institutions to hold together, and the voice of institutions is constantly enhancing, and the overweight of institutions has been maintained for a long time.</b></p><p><b>2. The group of US stock institutions will also loosen to cyclical industries in stages, but in the long run, they will always hold the group for consumption and growth, especially since 2007, they will adhere to information technology and optional consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. The institutional pursuit of the leading US stock market has never stopped in the past two decades, and it has intensified in the past ten years. The number and share of leading shareholding institutions are significantly higher than those of non-leading stocks.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared with the profit growth rate, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and Awkwardness stocks enjoy the valuation premium.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profit certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force for the US stock market. The long-term high-quality fundamental performance of technology and consumption has been dominant for a long time; In the past 40 years, the leading US stock market has maintained a higher ROE and provided longer-term stable returns, becoming the first choice for institutions to hold groups.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the great development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional grouping.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET, and there may be statistical errors in third-party data; 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual situation; 3. There are limitations in comparative research methods, and there may be some deviations in conclusions.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag\">国盛策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152855899","content_text":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象能持续多久？抱团是否会就此瓦解？抱团未来又将如何演绎？过去20年美股的经验给我们提供了借鉴。\n报告正文\n一、美股：机构抱团是常态\n美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强。随着美股机构发展壮大，机构持股占比在过去20年中大幅增长，当前机构持股市值占全市场流通市值的比重也已高达70%，成为美股市场的主导力量。截至2020年，机构持股比例在80%以上的个股占33%，这一比例在1999年仅为2%；持股比例位于50~80%之间的个股占比25%，这一比例在1999年仅为10%。\n美股机构抱团不断加深，机构重仓股长期超配。若以机构持股占比高于80%的美股作为机构重仓股，在过去20年中，机构对美股重仓股的持仓由不足10%增加至近50%，且超配比例不断扩大，1999年超配5个点、2020年超配达到12个点。\n二、美股：机构抱团什么？\n1、抱团消费与成长\n美股机构投资者抱团消费与成长。美股机构投资者前100大重仓股集中在消费与成长，消费与成长风格的机构重仓股数量占比与持股市值占比始终高于50%，是机构投资者主要的抱团方向。抱团风格在过去二十年中并非稳定不变，2000年至2007年，机构阶段性加仓金融地产和周期，但自2007年至今，机构则重新增配消费与科技，且个股数量与市值占比大幅上升，目前消费与成长的市值占比已超八成。\n\n从具体行业看，2007年前机构抱团向能源与工业松动，而2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。2000年至2007年，机构前100大重仓股中能源、工业、通信等行业增持幅度居前，分别达9.30%、1.96%和0.78%；而自2007年以来，信息技术、可选消费与医药行业重获大幅增持，增持比例分别达13.90%、11.19%和1.22%。\n\n2、抱团龙头\n美股机构对龙头的追逐在过去20年中从未止步，2009年以来愈演愈烈。\n一是从持股机构数量来看，龙头的持股机构数量遥遥领先。以流通市值前20%的美股代表龙头，流通市值后80%代表非龙头，持有龙头的机构数量中位数由20年前的230家增长至700余家，而持有非龙头的机构数量中位数水平目前仍仅为100家左右。\n进一步按流通市值分组，龙头的机构持股数量占优。将美股按流通市值分组，流通市值大于3000亿美元、2000-3000亿美元、1000-2000亿美元与500-1000亿美元之间的持股机构数量差距在过去10年中不断扩大，市值越大，持股机构越集中，机构“以大为美”的选股偏好进一步强化。\n二是从机构持股占比来看，龙头的机构占比也明显更高。自2009年以来龙头的机构持股占比的中位数基本维持在80%左右的高位，而非龙头机构占比维持在50%上下。\n三是从机构重仓股与美股龙头重合度来看，重合度不断提升意味着机构持续向龙头集中。机构持股市值前50、前100、前300与前500对全市场流通市值前50、前100、前300与前500的覆盖度近年来已基本维持在90%以上，而2000年前后这个比例仅有50%~60%，这说明美股绝大多数龙头已经纳入机构麾下。\n四是从个股角度，以FAAMG为例，机构占比明显提升。截至2020年四季度末，平均机构持股占比达74.4%，其中奈飞、脸书、谷歌的机构持股占比居前，分别达82.92%、81.02%和79.09%，FAAMNG也均位于机构前20大重仓股之中。\n\n3、抱团高ROE\n从重仓股看美股机构的选股偏好，相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE。美股机构重仓股的ROE水平普遍较高，前50大重仓股的ROE高达26.1%，前100、前300、前500的ROE逐渐降低，但仍显著高于全部美股的ROE水平；而机构对于重仓股利润增速的偏好相对较低，利润增速中位数并非有序回落，机构更加注重长期增长的确定性。\n\n相应地，美股高ROE重仓股享有估值溢价。从PE角度。美股机构前50大重仓股的PE中位数为30.0，明显高于全部美股的18.9，且随着持仓仓位的下降，PE估值也有序下降；PB角度亦是如此，前50大重仓股PB中位数为7.2，高于全部美股的2.40。\n三、美股：抱团因何而起？\n科技与消费长期优质的基本面，是近十年机构坚守的重要驱动。90年代以来，美国消费、医药、科技行业持续处于景气上行周期。在过去20年中，除受互联网泡沫破裂的影响外，信息技术、医疗保健、必选消费等行业的ROE水平基本处于20%至30%区间，展现出更强且更稳定的成长性与盈利能力，而金融、能源、公用事业等周期类行业的ROE中枢持续下移，且波动较大。在基本面与景气度上行的驱动下，科技和消费龙头也就成为了机构抱团的必然选择，且随着分化的加剧，机构对于科技和消费的抱团将更加集中和紧密。\n\n机构投资者长期抱团美股龙头实际上也是对盈利确定性和稳定性的持续追求。中长期来看，美股机构化带来定价体系由估值主导向盈利主导变迁，机构投资者对龙头与非龙头的持股行为也呈现出较为明显的ROE驱动的特征，美股龙头与非龙头机构持股占比的分化水平与二者ROE分化水平之间的变动较为一致。\n\n近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。机构投资者在追求盈利确定性的过程中，增配ROE水平更高的美股龙头成为最“正确”的选择，对比美股机构前50、前100、前300重仓股的ROE中位数，呈现出越重仓的个股，ROE水平越高的特点，并在过去20年中基本维持有序，且大幅高于全市场中位数水平。\n\n除机构对确定性的追求外，近十年美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团龙头的效果。美国ETF规模由1998年的不足200亿增长至2020年的5.4万亿美元，股票型ETF的规模达4.2万亿美元，占比近八成。以美国ETF三巨头——先锋、贝莱德、道富为例，三家在标普500成分股的总持股占比由1999年的5.9%上升至2020年的19.1%，机构资金持续向优质龙头集中。\n\n四、总结\n1、美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强，对机构重仓股长期维持超配。\n2、美股机构抱团也会阶段性向周期行业松动，但长期来看始终抱团消费与成长，尤其是2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。\n3、机构对美股龙头的抱团追逐在过去二十年中从未止步，且近十年愈演愈烈，龙头的持股机构数量与持股占比均显著高于非龙头。\n4、相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE，且重仓股享受估值溢价。\n5、对盈利确定性和稳定性的追求是美股抱团的根本驱动。科技和消费长期优质的基本面表现长期占优；近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。\n6、除此之外，美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团。\n风险提示\n1、机构持股数据来自FACTSET，第三方数据可能存在统计误差；2、历史数据统计与实际情况可能存在误差；3、对比研究方法存在局限性，结论或存在一定偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}