Profile - To The Moon

Basketrif

Wander beyond the wilderness

Posts · 189Posts · 189
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2023-04-22
  This doesnt look good for investors
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2023-01-24
  $Demand Brands, Inc.(DMAN)$ Gemmm
  2.88K 1
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2023-01-24
  $HP Inc(HPQ)$ Great free stock
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2023-01-12
  Great to buy google now!!!
  Beware GOOG Stock Investors! Microsoft’s AI Push Could Be a "Google Killer."
  Rising competition is one of key issues at hand with Google parent Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL).Competitive
  Beware GOOG Stock Investors! Microsoft’s AI Push Could Be a "Google Killer."
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2022-08-26
  Such negative or one sided report. Either this analyst is being paid to pull down the valuation so he can enter at cheaper price or he clearly backed by big funds on high shorting volumes
  Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now
  SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.
  Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2022-08-10
  Sad news. Absolutely eroding retail investors' confidence.
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2022-07-07
  Great lengthy analysis. Believe ppl who buy this stock is nvdia is market leader in certain gpuu cards
  Is Nvidia Really A Bargain Or Is There More Pain Ahead?
  SummaryNvidia lost nearly 35% of its value in a matter of months, when the broader market fell by le
  Is Nvidia Really A Bargain Or Is There More Pain Ahead?
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2022-05-12
  A very clear direction and future plan
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2022-05-12
  This is awesome news
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BasketrifBasketrif
  ·2022-03-31
  $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$Buyign more
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doesnt look good for investors","listText":"This doesnt look good for investors","text":"This doesnt look good for investors","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944784314","repostId":"2329320400","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952126986,"gmtCreate":1674546238945,"gmtModify":1676538945996,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DMAN\">$Demand Brands, Inc.(DMAN)$&nbsp;</a>Gemmm","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DMAN\">$Demand Brands, Inc.(DMAN)$&nbsp;</a>Gemmm","text":"$Demand Brands, Inc.(DMAN)$ Gemmm","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2ccda15a7d0751c65e7ed811e557bae6","width":"1125","height":"2061"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952126986","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952128534,"gmtCreate":1674546170629,"gmtModify":1676538945988,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HPQ\">$HP Inc(HPQ)$&nbsp;</a>Great free stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HPQ\">$HP Inc(HPQ)$&nbsp;</a>Great free stock","text":"$HP Inc(HPQ)$ Great free stock","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fca5da8143c041b1cb1564527a8e0f3d","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952128534","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951544687,"gmtCreate":1673530440849,"gmtModify":1676538851641,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great to buy google now!!!","listText":"Great to buy google now!!!","text":"Great to buy google now!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951544687","repostId":"1111072130","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111072130","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673524187,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111072130?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-12 19:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beware GOOG Stock Investors! Microsoft’s AI Push Could Be a \"Google Killer.\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111072130","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Rising competition is one of key issues at hand with Google parent Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL).Competitive ","content":"<div>\n<p>Rising competition is one of key issues at hand with Google parent Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL).Competitive risks could intensify, if Microsoft(MSFT) and ChatGPT developer OpenAI keep growing their existing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/market360/2023/01/goog-stock-could-take-a-beating-as-msft-makes-its-ai-push/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware GOOG Stock Investors! Microsoft’s AI Push Could Be a \"Google Killer.\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware GOOG Stock Investors! Microsoft’s AI Push Could Be a \"Google Killer.\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-12 19:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/market360/2023/01/goog-stock-could-take-a-beating-as-msft-makes-its-ai-push/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rising competition is one of key issues at hand with Google parent Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL).Competitive risks could intensify, if Microsoft(MSFT) and ChatGPT developer OpenAI keep growing their existing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/market360/2023/01/goog-stock-could-take-a-beating-as-msft-makes-its-ai-push/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/market360/2023/01/goog-stock-could-take-a-beating-as-msft-makes-its-ai-push/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111072130","content_text":"Rising competition is one of key issues at hand with Google parent Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL).Competitive risks could intensify, if Microsoft(MSFT) and ChatGPT developer OpenAI keep growing their existing relationship.Atop existing concerns, it’s best to keep staying on the sidelines with GOOG stock.Source: IgorGolovniov / Shutterstock.comThere are several reasons why it’s best to steer clear of Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG,NASDAQ:GOOGL) shares. Among these various reasons, a key one that could affect the future performance of GOOG stock isrising competition.High competition is having a greater impact on Alphabet’s cloud computing and streaming segments. However, not even its bread-and-butter search advertising segment may be immune.Admittedly, it’s not set in stone that ChatGPT, which has been hyped in the media as a possible “Google killer,” will erode the company’s search dominance. However, recent news regarding an investment in ChatGPT’s developer may suggest an increased likelihood of future “disruption,” by one of this tech giant’s key rivals, no less.Let’s dive in, and see why this possible development may further dampen this stock’s long-term appeal.GOOGAlphabet$91.46GOOG Stock and a Potential Negative DevelopmentSince launching on Nov. 29, ChatGPT has taken the world by storm. Although the buzz surrounding it has calmed down in recent weeks, there’s still a lot of talk about this artificial-intelligence chatbot, or more advanced chatbots introduced down the road, eventually destroyingGoogle’s status as the internet’s gateway.OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has only recently entered the commercialization stage. However, this early-stage AI company is working aggressively to scale up and is currently raising billions in additional capital. Per recent reports, Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT) could be a big investor in this funding round.The software giant is already an investor in this startup and is its cloud services vendor.But if reported talks of another $10 billion investment prove true, Microsoft will become the largest shareholder in OpenAI, owning a 49% stake. Making such a large investment would also likely open the door for greater usage of OpenAI’s technology across its platforms.In fact, before this latest development, there were already reports of Microsoft’s plans to integrate ChatGPT into its Bing search engine. Combining deep pockets with disruptive technology, a growing Microsoft-OpenAI relationship could be bad news for GOOG stock in the long run.Why This Deal Could Drain Google’s Deep MoatSure, while it has conquered numerous digital frontiers, Microsoft in its history has had mixed success in the search engine space. Despite its efforts with Bing, launched in 2009, it has only been able to graba single-digit share of the search engine market.But now, thanks to ChatGPT and other technological advances from OpenAI, the tech powerhouse may finally have the ingredients in place to grab a much larger share of the search market from Alphabet. That’s not to say that Microsoft is going to fully “disrupt” Google search, yet it may drain much of the deep economic moat that currently surrounds this business.In particular, the rise of a serious competitive threat could impact the profitability of Google’s search business. Analysts from Morgan Stanley have recently argued that the rise of advanced, AI-powered search tools could force Google to incorporate more of this technology into its own platform. This in time couldput pressure on its profit margins.Lower profitability from its Search segment could be a drag on Alphabet’s overall results, especially if the competitive pressures experienced by the company’s other major segments, such as Google Cloud and YouTube, continue to limit their respective earnings growth potential.The TakeawayThe prospect of Microsoft’s greater involvement with OpenAI and ChatGPT provides yet another reason to tread carefully with Alphabet shares. Along with this concern, don’t forget there are other factors still at play that stand to affect GOOG’s performance.It may not be until late 2023 at the earliest that the digital advertising space begins to bounce back. Even if this does arrive on time, the company may have to handily beat current 2024 earnings expectations ($6.07 per share) for it to move the needle for the stock.Barring an unexpected twist, such as management implementing an aggressive cost reduction plan, and/or initiating a dividend, shares will likely continue to disappoint in 2023.The near-term remains murky, and long-term prospects are increasingly coming under threat by rising competition. There’s now more reason to sit on the sidelines with GOOG stock.GOOG stock earns a D rating in Portfolio Grader.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995435381,"gmtCreate":1661494255746,"gmtModify":1676536530439,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Such negative or one sided report. Either this analyst is being paid to pull down the valuation so he can enter at cheaper price or he clearly backed by big funds on high shorting volumes","listText":"Such negative or one sided report. Either this analyst is being paid to pull down the valuation so he can enter at cheaper price or he clearly backed by big funds on high shorting volumes","text":"Such negative or one sided report. Either this analyst is being paid to pull down the valuation so he can enter at cheaper price or he clearly backed by big funds on high shorting volumes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995435381","repostId":"1130817581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130817581","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661486292,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130817581?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 11:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130817581","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Nvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.</li><li>However, with cryptocurrency mining GPU demand in deep decline, Nvidia&#39;s problems could last longer than a few quarters.</li><li>Nvidia&#39;s valuation is still high, and earnings estimates should see more downward revisions.</li><li>I&#39;m comfortable about revisiting this stock in the $100-120 range, but for now, Nvidia is a sell.</li></ul><p>NVIDIA Corporation&#39;s (NASDAQ:NVDA) market cap reached an absurd high of more than $800 billion during the tech-top in November 2021. During this bubble phase, Nvidia&#39;s stock hit an all-time high of around $350, trading at more than 100 times TTM non-GAAP EPS (approximately 40 times TTM sales). Then, the Fed pricked the ultra-high multiple bubble, and many stocks, including Nvidia, crashed.</p><p>I warned about the &#34;Epic Drop&#34; in my late-November article, and one of my prime examples of the coming crash was Nvidia. However, despite being one of the most shockingly overvalued stocks of its time, Nvidia&#39;s problems run much deeper than the typical temporary overvalued company.</p><p>Nvidia reported earnings in line with its preannounced figures but well below prior guidance and analysts&#39; estimates. Moreover, the company&#39;s guidance was disappointing. Nvidia is not only suffering from overvaluation problems and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The company has entered a severe decline phase, and the market is probably underestimating how serious the situation is for Nvidia.</p><p>The company faces several challenging headwinds to its top line, and its bottom line may continue deteriorating in the coming quarters. Therefore, we will probably see earnings estimates and EPS decrease more than anticipated. Meanwhile, the stock should attempt to find a base, but a reasonable entry price may be around $100-120.</p><p><b>The Bubble Days Are Over - More Downside Ahead</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1f84840d4c1f577471f0d35df1f240\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NVDA(StockCharts.com)</p><p>This is only a three-year chart of Nvidia. So, we see that before the recent decline phase Nvidia skyrocketed by nearly 10X in just around two years. So, what occurred in this time frame? Why did we see such remarkable demand for Nvidia stock?</p><p>We can point to several elements. Nvidia weathered the coronavirus slow down better than many other companies as much of its gaming business is related to gaming. Then, Nvidia received a post-coronavirus recovery boost as well. The company&#39;s revenues surged by 40-60% or more in many quarters in 2020/2021, and investors loved its performance and stock.</p><p>The insatiable demand pushed the stock to grossly overbought and ludicrously overvalued levels (roughly 40 times trailing sales). However, what was the true catalyst behind this move? The company claimed that it benefited from surging gaming-related revenues. However, earlier this year, Nvidia settled with the SECfor failing to disclose its cryptocurrency-related sales.</p><p>A significant portion of Nvidia&#39;s GPU sales went towards cryptocurrency mining. Unfortunately, we cannot know precisely how much of the GPU sales were cryptocurrency related as the company did not disclose the numbers. However, we know that Nvidia&#39;s GPUs were widely used in Ethereum and other cryptocurrency mining, but sadly for the company, these sales are ending.</p><p><b>The End Of An Era</b></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s revenues benefited greatly from surging Ethereum and other cryptocurrency-related sales. When we look at Nvidia&#39;s surging sales in 2020/2021, this time frame coincides with the significant bull market in Ethereum and other digital assets. However, now the company is reporting sharp drops in sales. Nvidia&#39;s cryptocurrency mining processor (&#34;CMP&#34;) sales were down by66% YoY to just $140 million last quarter. While the company has a CMP GPU line dedicated to cryptocurrency mining, some of its gaming GPUs also went to cryptocurrency miners.</p><p>The massive problem Nvidia faces now is Ethereum&#39;s pivot away from GPU mining. Ethereum has been the driver of cryptocurrency-related mining GPU sales in recent years. However, Ethereum is moving away from intensive GPU mining, and the switch from proof-of-work to the proof-of-stake protocol should be complete soon.</p><p>Proof-of-stake is far less intensive and requires nothing near the computing power of proof-of-work. Therefore, the Ethereum network will not need a growing number of GPUs. On the contrary, as we advance, there will probably be a remarkably high number of unneeded GPUs.</p><p>Another reason why Nvidia&#39;s revenues spiked so rapidly was the GPU shortage. You&#39;d be lucky to get a quality GPU at MSRPin 2020/2021. Due to the GPU shortage, Nvidia&#39;s graphic cards could sell for two times MSRP or higher in many cases throughout this time frame. Naturally, this phenomenon significantly contributed to the company&#39;s skyrocketing revenues. We can presume that this dynamic occurred partially due to the substantial demand from the cryptocurrency segment.</p><p><b>What We Are Left With Now</b></p><p>Ethereum is moving away from GPU mining. Bitcoin and other digital assets rely more on ASIC miners over GPUs. We see Nvidia&#39;s CMP GPU sales are crashing, and general &#34;gaming&#34; revenues have declined by 33%YoY. Therefore, Nvidia faces a severe problem. A substantial portion of the company&#39;s gains may be gone permanently.</p><p>Additionally, Nvidia will no longer benefit from the cryptocurrency segment&#39;s growth. Moreover, the company will no longer benefit from the surging GPU prices it saw in 2020/2021. Instead, Nvidia faces the problem of cheaper GPUs, lower margins, and worsening profitability as the company moves forward.</p><p><b>Nvidia RTX 3080 Price Decline</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c65b3c0628b532f5748f8d4c917726\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia RTX 3080(the verge.com )</p><p>We&#39;ve seen a price drop of about 65% for Nvidia&#39;s RTX 3080 GPU since the price peaked last year. This image captures Nvidia&#39;s GPU market and the company&#39;s problem. We will probably see prices stabilize and possibly move up marginally. However, we will not likely see significant price rises any time soon. After years of shortages, the market is oversaturated with Nvidia&#39;s GPUs. We are now seeing the opposite effect and probably have not yet seen the full impact of the oversupply. We must consider that unwanted mining GPUs could further flood the market, exacerbating the supply/demand issue.</p><p><b>We See It In The Results</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d7cfe94a82a2e7b2f943115d8e70bcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia 8-K(investor.nvidia.com)</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s Q2 results were shockingly poor, and &#34;challenging macroeconomic conditions&#34; do not justify a 19% QoQ revenue drop. Less than one year ago, Nvidia was valued at more than 100 times trailing earnings and now sees YoY growth of just 3% YoY. Moreover, despite only a 3% revenue gain, the company&#39;s operating expenses surged by 36% YoY. Therefore, we see gross margins down substantially, operating income down by 80%, and net income down by 72%.</p><p><b>Now, Let&#39;s Check the Guidance</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/886574b4a6331498106528a2834f5675\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia Q3 guidance(investor.nvidia.com)</p><p>The company guided to just $5.9 billion in revenues for Q3, 15% below the consensus forecast of$6.95 billion. $5.9 billion will be the company&#39;s second consecutive QoQ decline, equating to a YoY drop of 17%. Additionally, the company guided GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 62.4% and 65%. However, such a substantial rebound in gross margin will be challenging to achieve, and the company may report gross margins closer to 45-50%, substantially worse than its forecasts. Nvidia&#39;s GPU segment may continue struggling, leading to lower profitability and a worsening long-term image for the company.</p><p><b>Valuation - Still Too High</b></p><p>Nvidia has gone through a severe repricing phase. While the stock is not trading near 100 times TTM earnings, it&#39;s still expensive. Also, we must consider that the market began revising Nvidia&#39;s earnings lower and may not be done.</p><p><b>EPS Revisions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56bd255c30f267c1fc7d8825b330556\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>EPS revisions(SeekingAlpha.com )</p><p>We see that the EPS forecast trend is lower here. However, considering that Nvidia recently came out with a horrible preannouncement and even more recently provided disappointing guidance, estimates should still go lower. Furthermore, EPS estimates may be too optimistic, as it is unclear whether Nvidia will have such impressive EPS growth in future years.</p><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699c23f05dea3cbeb873da0db62a239d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>EPS estimates(SeekingAlpha.com)</p><p>One factor seems clear. The stock is still too expensive here. With an expected EPS of $3.75 this year, Nvidia&#39;s P/E ratio is 45, still very high. EPS projections are for $5.46 next year. However, this figure seems too high, cannot be trusted, and will likely get revised lower. Nevertheless, even if we apply the $5.46 EPS estimates, we still arrive at a P/E of more than 30 for Nvidia. Over thirty times questionable projected earnings is a high price for a company facing significant top and bottom line pressures and will probably see more earnings estimate declines.</p><p>I anticipate that Nvidia could earn towards the lower end of current estimates, roughly $4 in EPS in fiscal 2024. Also, Nvidia deserves a lower P/E multiple due to poor performance and uncertainty. I&#39;m comfortable with a forward P/E of 25-30 on a projected EPS of $4 for next year. This dynamic brings us to a buy-in price target of $100-120. In this range, Nvidia becomes a buy, but now at $170, the stock is a sell in my view. I will revisit this stock in the $100-120 range. Until then, there are better stocks to buy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock: Get Out Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 11:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537078-nvidia-get-out-now?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A5><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.However, with cryptocurrency mining GPU demand in deep decline, Nvidia's problems could last longer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537078-nvidia-get-out-now?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537078-nvidia-get-out-now?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130817581","content_text":"SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.However, with cryptocurrency mining GPU demand in deep decline, Nvidia's problems could last longer than a few quarters.Nvidia's valuation is still high, and earnings estimates should see more downward revisions.I'm comfortable about revisiting this stock in the $100-120 range, but for now, Nvidia is a sell.NVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) market cap reached an absurd high of more than $800 billion during the tech-top in November 2021. During this bubble phase, Nvidia's stock hit an all-time high of around $350, trading at more than 100 times TTM non-GAAP EPS (approximately 40 times TTM sales). Then, the Fed pricked the ultra-high multiple bubble, and many stocks, including Nvidia, crashed.I warned about the \"Epic Drop\" in my late-November article, and one of my prime examples of the coming crash was Nvidia. However, despite being one of the most shockingly overvalued stocks of its time, Nvidia's problems run much deeper than the typical temporary overvalued company.Nvidia reported earnings in line with its preannounced figures but well below prior guidance and analysts' estimates. Moreover, the company's guidance was disappointing. Nvidia is not only suffering from overvaluation problems and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The company has entered a severe decline phase, and the market is probably underestimating how serious the situation is for Nvidia.The company faces several challenging headwinds to its top line, and its bottom line may continue deteriorating in the coming quarters. Therefore, we will probably see earnings estimates and EPS decrease more than anticipated. Meanwhile, the stock should attempt to find a base, but a reasonable entry price may be around $100-120.The Bubble Days Are Over - More Downside AheadNVDA(StockCharts.com)This is only a three-year chart of Nvidia. So, we see that before the recent decline phase Nvidia skyrocketed by nearly 10X in just around two years. So, what occurred in this time frame? Why did we see such remarkable demand for Nvidia stock?We can point to several elements. Nvidia weathered the coronavirus slow down better than many other companies as much of its gaming business is related to gaming. Then, Nvidia received a post-coronavirus recovery boost as well. The company's revenues surged by 40-60% or more in many quarters in 2020/2021, and investors loved its performance and stock.The insatiable demand pushed the stock to grossly overbought and ludicrously overvalued levels (roughly 40 times trailing sales). However, what was the true catalyst behind this move? The company claimed that it benefited from surging gaming-related revenues. However, earlier this year, Nvidia settled with the SECfor failing to disclose its cryptocurrency-related sales.A significant portion of Nvidia's GPU sales went towards cryptocurrency mining. Unfortunately, we cannot know precisely how much of the GPU sales were cryptocurrency related as the company did not disclose the numbers. However, we know that Nvidia's GPUs were widely used in Ethereum and other cryptocurrency mining, but sadly for the company, these sales are ending.The End Of An EraNvidia's revenues benefited greatly from surging Ethereum and other cryptocurrency-related sales. When we look at Nvidia's surging sales in 2020/2021, this time frame coincides with the significant bull market in Ethereum and other digital assets. However, now the company is reporting sharp drops in sales. Nvidia's cryptocurrency mining processor (\"CMP\") sales were down by66% YoY to just $140 million last quarter. While the company has a CMP GPU line dedicated to cryptocurrency mining, some of its gaming GPUs also went to cryptocurrency miners.The massive problem Nvidia faces now is Ethereum's pivot away from GPU mining. Ethereum has been the driver of cryptocurrency-related mining GPU sales in recent years. However, Ethereum is moving away from intensive GPU mining, and the switch from proof-of-work to the proof-of-stake protocol should be complete soon.Proof-of-stake is far less intensive and requires nothing near the computing power of proof-of-work. Therefore, the Ethereum network will not need a growing number of GPUs. On the contrary, as we advance, there will probably be a remarkably high number of unneeded GPUs.Another reason why Nvidia's revenues spiked so rapidly was the GPU shortage. You'd be lucky to get a quality GPU at MSRPin 2020/2021. Due to the GPU shortage, Nvidia's graphic cards could sell for two times MSRP or higher in many cases throughout this time frame. Naturally, this phenomenon significantly contributed to the company's skyrocketing revenues. We can presume that this dynamic occurred partially due to the substantial demand from the cryptocurrency segment.What We Are Left With NowEthereum is moving away from GPU mining. Bitcoin and other digital assets rely more on ASIC miners over GPUs. We see Nvidia's CMP GPU sales are crashing, and general \"gaming\" revenues have declined by 33%YoY. Therefore, Nvidia faces a severe problem. A substantial portion of the company's gains may be gone permanently.Additionally, Nvidia will no longer benefit from the cryptocurrency segment's growth. Moreover, the company will no longer benefit from the surging GPU prices it saw in 2020/2021. Instead, Nvidia faces the problem of cheaper GPUs, lower margins, and worsening profitability as the company moves forward.Nvidia RTX 3080 Price DeclineNvidia RTX 3080(the verge.com )We've seen a price drop of about 65% for Nvidia's RTX 3080 GPU since the price peaked last year. This image captures Nvidia's GPU market and the company's problem. We will probably see prices stabilize and possibly move up marginally. However, we will not likely see significant price rises any time soon. After years of shortages, the market is oversaturated with Nvidia's GPUs. We are now seeing the opposite effect and probably have not yet seen the full impact of the oversupply. We must consider that unwanted mining GPUs could further flood the market, exacerbating the supply/demand issue.We See It In The ResultsNvidia 8-K(investor.nvidia.com)Nvidia's Q2 results were shockingly poor, and \"challenging macroeconomic conditions\" do not justify a 19% QoQ revenue drop. Less than one year ago, Nvidia was valued at more than 100 times trailing earnings and now sees YoY growth of just 3% YoY. Moreover, despite only a 3% revenue gain, the company's operating expenses surged by 36% YoY. Therefore, we see gross margins down substantially, operating income down by 80%, and net income down by 72%.Now, Let's Check the GuidanceNvidia Q3 guidance(investor.nvidia.com)The company guided to just $5.9 billion in revenues for Q3, 15% below the consensus forecast of$6.95 billion. $5.9 billion will be the company's second consecutive QoQ decline, equating to a YoY drop of 17%. Additionally, the company guided GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 62.4% and 65%. However, such a substantial rebound in gross margin will be challenging to achieve, and the company may report gross margins closer to 45-50%, substantially worse than its forecasts. Nvidia's GPU segment may continue struggling, leading to lower profitability and a worsening long-term image for the company.Valuation - Still Too HighNvidia has gone through a severe repricing phase. While the stock is not trading near 100 times TTM earnings, it's still expensive. Also, we must consider that the market began revising Nvidia's earnings lower and may not be done.EPS RevisionsEPS revisions(SeekingAlpha.com )We see that the EPS forecast trend is lower here. However, considering that Nvidia recently came out with a horrible preannouncement and even more recently provided disappointing guidance, estimates should still go lower. Furthermore, EPS estimates may be too optimistic, as it is unclear whether Nvidia will have such impressive EPS growth in future years.EPS EstimatesEPS estimates(SeekingAlpha.com)One factor seems clear. The stock is still too expensive here. With an expected EPS of $3.75 this year, Nvidia's P/E ratio is 45, still very high. EPS projections are for $5.46 next year. However, this figure seems too high, cannot be trusted, and will likely get revised lower. Nevertheless, even if we apply the $5.46 EPS estimates, we still arrive at a P/E of more than 30 for Nvidia. Over thirty times questionable projected earnings is a high price for a company facing significant top and bottom line pressures and will probably see more earnings estimate declines.I anticipate that Nvidia could earn towards the lower end of current estimates, roughly $4 in EPS in fiscal 2024. Also, Nvidia deserves a lower P/E multiple due to poor performance and uncertainty. I'm comfortable with a forward P/E of 25-30 on a projected EPS of $4 for next year. This dynamic brings us to a buy-in price target of $100-120. In this range, Nvidia becomes a buy, but now at $170, the stock is a sell in my view. I will revisit this stock in the $100-120 range. Until then, there are better stocks to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904701273,"gmtCreate":1660092941794,"gmtModify":1703477792385,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sad news.&nbsp;Absolutely eroding retail&nbsp;investors' confidence.&nbsp;","listText":"Sad news.&nbsp;Absolutely eroding retail&nbsp;investors' confidence.&nbsp;","text":"Sad news. Absolutely eroding retail investors' confidence.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904701273","repostId":"2258128146","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079282603,"gmtCreate":1657204628602,"gmtModify":1676535969051,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great lengthy analysis. Believe ppl who buy this stock is nvdia is market leader in certain gpuu cards","listText":"Great lengthy analysis. Believe ppl who buy this stock is nvdia is market leader in certain gpuu cards","text":"Great lengthy analysis. Believe ppl who buy this stock is nvdia is market leader in certain gpuu cards","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079282603","repostId":"2249459423","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249459423","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657208203,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249459423?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nvidia Really A Bargain Or Is There More Pain Ahead?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249459423","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia lost nearly 35% of its value in a matter of months, when the broader market fell by le","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Nvidia lost nearly 35% of its value in a matter of months, when the broader market fell by less than 15% during the same period.</li><li>Although this dynamic is counterintuitive to Nvidia&#39;s improving business fundamentals, there is a solid reason for it.</li><li>Unfortunately for shareholders who bought at the highs, the company&#39;s share price might not recover to its 2021 highs anytime soon.</li></ul><p>About ten months ago I took a deep dive into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA&#39;s</a> share price and laid out my thesis on why investors should be less concerned about the company&#39;s business fundamentals and laser focused on its momentum exposure.</p><p>Although thismight sound counterintuitive, since sooner or later fundamentals matter, Nvidia is still at the mercy of factors that have little to do with the company&#39;s actual performance. That is why, since September of last year, the company lost nearly 35% of its value, while at the same time the S&amp;P 500 fell by slightly less than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdb65cce970f34d2aeacdfd2b31ac71d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Such a large drop relative to the broader market was disappointing even when adjusting for Nvidia&#39;s high beta of 1.6. Contrary to this abysmal share price performance, however, the company continued to grow its quarterly sales numbers at a nearly 50% rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39e15815bfc09727371b477bf89f4a94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Not only that, but both gross and operating margins continued to improve over the past few quarters since I covered the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89db1405a7e4c9d299b65404553554a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>A somehow slowing topline growth rate could be partially to blame, however, Nvidia&#39;s revenue forward growth rate is not very different now from what it was back in September of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/603bf1b08117128bd80fd3deae02c63f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>As a matter of fact, AMD (AMD) forward revenue growth rate is much higher now than it was back then and yet the company&#39;s share price performed remarkably similar to that of Nvidia, thus also significantly underperforming the S&amp;P 500 even on a risk adjusted basis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feae396374468950c5e366af1e28a850\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3>So what happened?</h3><p>To put it briefly, the risk that I highlighted in September materialized. Although I will not go into the details again in this article, I will highlight that momentum exposure of Nvidia combined with the monetary tightening (or at least the expectations of it) were the main factors for the company&#39;s poor performance during the past 10-month period.</p><p>I also explained how the whole process works in my thought piece called &#39;The Cloud Space In Numbers: What Matters The Most&#39;, where I did a case study based on another high-growth sector.</p><p>Monetary tightening has a profound impact on high duration stocks and unfortunately, Nvidia is still one of the most heavily exposed companies to rising interest rates in the semiconductor space.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06f73d8185b657e7c3045f0fdd9e39e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Even though the relationship between forward revenue growth rate and forward P/E ratios has weakened significantly since September of last year, the flattening of the slope of the trend line above was what caused the companies at the top right-hand corner to perform so poorly even as their business fundamentals improved.</p><p>One of the reasons why Nvidia is still so far above the trend line above, is that in addition to its industry-leading growth rate, it also has one of the highest margins within the broader semiconductors peer group. The premium pricing of Nvidia&#39;s GPUs also sets it apart from AMD, which is valued at much lower multiples.</p><h3>Is Nvidia stock a bargain?</h3><p>Nvidia is arguably one of the highest quality semiconductor companies, with enormous growth opportunities in data centers and the automotive sector. However, it now trades at more than twice the industry average forward P/E ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7856a9f7e7b2dace82df33f3ec1bfc4e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Moreover, recent developments in the GPU market, resulted in never before seen premiums for Nvidia&#39;s products on the back of robust demand from consumers, data centers and cryptocurrency miners. All that propelled margins to levels far above its historical results and the sector median estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ed63ee078dc5e43574939faba9caa43\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This, however, does not mean that Nvidia is suddenly a bargain, simply because a high growth and highly profitable company is trading at forward Non-GAAP P/E ratio of below 30x.</p><p>The main reason why the absolute value of its forward P/E ratio could be misleading is that the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. Therefore, during cycle peaks, P/E ratios tend to be low due to high profits and share prices reflecting the risk of slower future sales growth.</p><p>Although, the recent push towards digitalization has somehow dispelled the risk of semiconductors being cyclical, the industry remains closely related to the business cycle (see below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd24b3cbc9dfbd04a89a8c6cdb27818\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>More importantly for Nvidia&#39;s share price, however, is the fact that it still exhibits high correlation with the MTUM less VLUE index - an index that takes a long position in iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8d575869822d2149a84ac8caea4fcf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>As a result, Nvidia&#39;s share price will continue to be highly sensitive to the momentum trade and more specifically to the overall liquidity in the equity market. Having said that, should the current monetary tightening cycle continue, Nvidia will likely continue to underperform even in the case of the company&#39;s fundamentals remaining strong.</p><p>On the contrary, should the Federal Reserve reverse course and embark on yet another monetary loosening journey, then Nvidia could potentially return to its 2021&#39;s highs. Although such a scenario should not be ruled out, it remains highly uncertain. Moreover, if it does not occur, then it will take many years before Nvidia returns to its all-time highs, all that provided that the company retains its industry leadership.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Really A Bargain Or Is There More Pain Ahead?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Really A Bargain Or Is There More Pain Ahead?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-07 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521864-is-nvidia-bargain-or-is-there-pain-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia lost nearly 35% of its value in a matter of months, when the broader market fell by less than 15% during the same period.Although this dynamic is counterintuitive to Nvidia's improving ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521864-is-nvidia-bargain-or-is-there-pain-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521864-is-nvidia-bargain-or-is-there-pain-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249459423","content_text":"SummaryNvidia lost nearly 35% of its value in a matter of months, when the broader market fell by less than 15% during the same period.Although this dynamic is counterintuitive to Nvidia's improving business fundamentals, there is a solid reason for it.Unfortunately for shareholders who bought at the highs, the company's share price might not recover to its 2021 highs anytime soon.About ten months ago I took a deep dive into NVIDIA's share price and laid out my thesis on why investors should be less concerned about the company's business fundamentals and laser focused on its momentum exposure.Although thismight sound counterintuitive, since sooner or later fundamentals matter, Nvidia is still at the mercy of factors that have little to do with the company's actual performance. That is why, since September of last year, the company lost nearly 35% of its value, while at the same time the S&P 500 fell by slightly less than 15%.Such a large drop relative to the broader market was disappointing even when adjusting for Nvidia's high beta of 1.6. Contrary to this abysmal share price performance, however, the company continued to grow its quarterly sales numbers at a nearly 50% rate.Not only that, but both gross and operating margins continued to improve over the past few quarters since I covered the company.A somehow slowing topline growth rate could be partially to blame, however, Nvidia's revenue forward growth rate is not very different now from what it was back in September of 2021.As a matter of fact, AMD (AMD) forward revenue growth rate is much higher now than it was back then and yet the company's share price performed remarkably similar to that of Nvidia, thus also significantly underperforming the S&P 500 even on a risk adjusted basis.So what happened?To put it briefly, the risk that I highlighted in September materialized. Although I will not go into the details again in this article, I will highlight that momentum exposure of Nvidia combined with the monetary tightening (or at least the expectations of it) were the main factors for the company's poor performance during the past 10-month period.I also explained how the whole process works in my thought piece called 'The Cloud Space In Numbers: What Matters The Most', where I did a case study based on another high-growth sector.Monetary tightening has a profound impact on high duration stocks and unfortunately, Nvidia is still one of the most heavily exposed companies to rising interest rates in the semiconductor space.Even though the relationship between forward revenue growth rate and forward P/E ratios has weakened significantly since September of last year, the flattening of the slope of the trend line above was what caused the companies at the top right-hand corner to perform so poorly even as their business fundamentals improved.One of the reasons why Nvidia is still so far above the trend line above, is that in addition to its industry-leading growth rate, it also has one of the highest margins within the broader semiconductors peer group. The premium pricing of Nvidia's GPUs also sets it apart from AMD, which is valued at much lower multiples.Is Nvidia stock a bargain?Nvidia is arguably one of the highest quality semiconductor companies, with enormous growth opportunities in data centers and the automotive sector. However, it now trades at more than twice the industry average forward P/E ratio.Moreover, recent developments in the GPU market, resulted in never before seen premiums for Nvidia's products on the back of robust demand from consumers, data centers and cryptocurrency miners. All that propelled margins to levels far above its historical results and the sector median estimates.This, however, does not mean that Nvidia is suddenly a bargain, simply because a high growth and highly profitable company is trading at forward Non-GAAP P/E ratio of below 30x.The main reason why the absolute value of its forward P/E ratio could be misleading is that the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. Therefore, during cycle peaks, P/E ratios tend to be low due to high profits and share prices reflecting the risk of slower future sales growth.Although, the recent push towards digitalization has somehow dispelled the risk of semiconductors being cyclical, the industry remains closely related to the business cycle (see below).More importantly for Nvidia's share price, however, is the fact that it still exhibits high correlation with the MTUM less VLUE index - an index that takes a long position in iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).As a result, Nvidia's share price will continue to be highly sensitive to the momentum trade and more specifically to the overall liquidity in the equity market. Having said that, should the current monetary tightening cycle continue, Nvidia will likely continue to underperform even in the case of the company's fundamentals remaining strong.On the contrary, should the Federal Reserve reverse course and embark on yet another monetary loosening journey, then Nvidia could potentially return to its 2021's highs. Although such a scenario should not be ruled out, it remains highly uncertain. Moreover, if it does not occur, then it will take many years before Nvidia returns to its all-time highs, all that provided that the company retains its industry leadership.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064769929,"gmtCreate":1652370558962,"gmtModify":1676535087386,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A very clear direction and future plan","listText":"A very clear direction and future plan","text":"A very clear direction and future plan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064769929","repostId":"2234970843","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064769007,"gmtCreate":1652370544609,"gmtModify":1676535087440,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is awesome news","listText":"This is awesome news","text":"This is awesome news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064769007","repostId":"2234970843","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013380059,"gmtCreate":1648684873724,"gmtModify":1676534377538,"author":{"id":"3574715322913604","authorId":"3574715322913604","name":"Basketrif","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47bde0946b4de3845bcba22c002e0cfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574715322913604","idStr":"3574715322913604"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>Buyign more","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>Buyign more","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$Buyign more","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c66c7bb002789ca17ab2dc54757696b","width":"1125","height":"3743"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013380059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}