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- 6294f4436294f443
  ·2021-06-03
  Wtf.....
  AMC theaters doubled in a single day, and its market value soared by tens of billions of dollars overnight. What happened?
  散户抱团股又嗨了，新晋“网红股”之王诞生了。
  AMC theaters doubled in a single day, and its market value soared by tens of billions of dollars overnight. What happened?
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- 6294f4436294f443
  ·2021-04-17
  ?
  How to track the prosperity of the chip industry? Look at TSMC's capital expenditures
  1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。
  How to track the prosperity of the chip industry? Look at TSMC's capital expenditures
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What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140446973","media":"金十数据","summary":"散户抱团股又嗨了，新晋“网红股”之王诞生了。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher against the background that the overall market fluctuated within a narrow range and waited for market catalysts.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Wait for WSB concept stocks to collectively skyrocket and become the focus of the market.</p><p>Launch of \"Popcorn Shareholder Benefits\"<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It surged 126% during the session, and there were several circuit breakers during the session</b>, as of the close,<b>AMC cinemas rose 99.70%, with a cumulative increase of 2959.91% year-to-date</b>。 In addition to AMC cinemas, they also belong to the WSB concept<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>It closed up 68.61% on Wednesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up 62.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>Up 36.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Up 31.92%.</p><p><b>AMC Cinemas Launches Million Retail Investor Entertainment Program</b></p><p>AMC Cinemas has recently proactively shown goodwill to retail investors many times, which has triggered a \"spring report\" from millions of retail investors-in just a few trading days, the company's stock price has jumped from a dozen US dollars to a record high of 60 US dollars., the market value rose to about 33 billion US dollars, exceeding GameStop's market value of about 20 billion US dollars.</p><p>AMC theaters also lost no time in launching a release on Wednesday called<b>AMC Investor Connect's Investor Reward Program</b>(Note: similar to shareholder privileges in Japan), which includes special offers and latest events, and retail investors who sign up for the program will also get a big bucket of free popcorn for their first movie viewing. According to the company's disclosure, shareholder data as of March 11, AMC Cinemas has a total of 3.2 million individual investor shareholders, with a shareholding ratio of 80% of the total share capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ceb1a75b4850b07fa978d115c95dc\" tg-width=\"2492\" tg-height=\"1066\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some market views believe that AMC Investor Connect is a strategic deployment for the company to establish contacts with retail investors. The platform offers exclusive promotions for retail investors, such as free or discounted items and exclusive screening invitations, as well as direct communication opportunities with Chairman and CEO Adam Aron. Adam Aron Represents:</p><p>\"This new investor relations platform will enable the company to communicate directly with retail investors who own 80% of the shares. The company hopes to provide these investors with special benefits of the theater from time to time. In the final analysis, these investors are the owners of the company, and I am working for them.\" Almost never has any American company executive welcomed retail power as much as Aron. But few companies have benefited from this group as much as AMC.</p><p>AMC was on the verge of bankruptcy a few months ago. However, retail investors vowing to subvert traditional company value models poured in, pushing up AMC's stock price and making it a representative of influencer stocks like GameStop. The frenzy has baffled Wall Street professionals. Mark Levin of Asterisk Advisors wrote in the report:</p><p>\"Obviously the fundamentals don't support this common stock level at all (but it makes sense for Reddit retail investors).\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43156418466e59b13942ce693ed26d7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the surge in stock prices has not changed the company's earnings prospects. As the impact of COVID-19 pandemic has not been eliminated, analysts have steadily lowered their EBITDA estimates for the company, and now expect AMC to lose nearly $100 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in the next 12 months.</p><p>Fundamental woes are also exacerbated by rising AMC debt. The company's long-term liabilities rose to $5.4 billion as of the first quarter of this year, nearly tripling from less than $2 billion in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd07beab64a842fbd75a64874556f58\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>AMC would not comment.</p><p><b>Critical hit to short sellers</b></p><p>According to data from S3 Partners, short positions in AMC stock lost about $1.3 billion last week alone, including a loss of $291 million on May 26 alone.</p><p>S3 Partners also estimates that the surge of AMC and GME on Tuesday cost short-selling investors another $848 million. Among them, the short selling loss on AMC was US $536 million, and the loss on GME short positions was US $312 million. Since the beginning of this year, the combined losses of short sellers caused by the soaring short squeeze of these two stocks have been about $9.25 billion.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the highly popular<b>AMC cinemas are already in a state of ignoring negative news</b>。</p><p>Just after the company announced the sale of $230 million in shares to Mudrick Capital on Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said that day<b>Mudrick Capital quickly liquidated AMC stock</b>。 Even with such an event, AMC Cinemas still closed up 22% on Tuesday. And less than a day after the market marveled that Mudrick Capital made a profit of over 10 million US dollars in just one day, it quickly discovered that they \"ran too fast\" and missed at least 200 million US dollars in profits.</p><p>However, like Mudrick Capital, the retail investors of AMC Cinemas are also in a state of frequent ultra-short-term trading. Since last Thursday, the daily turnover of AMC Cinemas has been above tens of billions of dollars, and this figure is even steady. Over Apple, which is worth $2 trillion.</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC theaters doubled in a single day, and its market value soared by tens of billions of dollars overnight. What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC theaters doubled in a single day, and its market value soared by tens of billions of dollars overnight. What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 06:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher against the background that the overall market fluctuated within a narrow range and waited for market catalysts.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Wait for WSB concept stocks to collectively skyrocket and become the focus of the market.</p><p>Launch of \"Popcorn Shareholder Benefits\"<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It surged 126% during the session, and there were several circuit breakers during the session</b>, as of the close,<b>AMC cinemas rose 99.70%, with a cumulative increase of 2959.91% year-to-date</b>。 In addition to AMC cinemas, they also belong to the WSB concept<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>It closed up 68.61% on Wednesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up 62.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>Up 36.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Up 31.92%.</p><p><b>AMC Cinemas Launches Million Retail Investor Entertainment Program</b></p><p>AMC Cinemas has recently proactively shown goodwill to retail investors many times, which has triggered a \"spring report\" from millions of retail investors-in just a few trading days, the company's stock price has jumped from a dozen US dollars to a record high of 60 US dollars., the market value rose to about 33 billion US dollars, exceeding GameStop's market value of about 20 billion US dollars.</p><p>AMC theaters also lost no time in launching a release on Wednesday called<b>AMC Investor Connect's Investor Reward Program</b>(Note: similar to shareholder privileges in Japan), which includes special offers and latest events, and retail investors who sign up for the program will also get a big bucket of free popcorn for their first movie viewing. According to the company's disclosure, shareholder data as of March 11, AMC Cinemas has a total of 3.2 million individual investor shareholders, with a shareholding ratio of 80% of the total share capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ceb1a75b4850b07fa978d115c95dc\" tg-width=\"2492\" tg-height=\"1066\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Some market views believe that AMC Investor Connect is a strategic deployment for the company to establish contacts with retail investors. The platform offers exclusive promotions for retail investors, such as free or discounted items and exclusive screening invitations, as well as direct communication opportunities with Chairman and CEO Adam Aron. Adam Aron Represents:</p><p>\"This new investor relations platform will enable the company to communicate directly with retail investors who own 80% of the shares. The company hopes to provide these investors with special benefits of the theater from time to time. In the final analysis, these investors are the owners of the company, and I am working for them.\" Almost never has any American company executive welcomed retail power as much as Aron. But few companies have benefited from this group as much as AMC.</p><p>AMC was on the verge of bankruptcy a few months ago. However, retail investors vowing to subvert traditional company value models poured in, pushing up AMC's stock price and making it a representative of influencer stocks like GameStop. The frenzy has baffled Wall Street professionals. Mark Levin of Asterisk Advisors wrote in the report:</p><p>\"Obviously the fundamentals don't support this common stock level at all (but it makes sense for Reddit retail investors).\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43156418466e59b13942ce693ed26d7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the surge in stock prices has not changed the company's earnings prospects. As the impact of COVID-19 pandemic has not been eliminated, analysts have steadily lowered their EBITDA estimates for the company, and now expect AMC to lose nearly $100 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in the next 12 months.</p><p>Fundamental woes are also exacerbated by rising AMC debt. The company's long-term liabilities rose to $5.4 billion as of the first quarter of this year, nearly tripling from less than $2 billion in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd07beab64a842fbd75a64874556f58\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>AMC would not comment.</p><p><b>Critical hit to short sellers</b></p><p>According to data from S3 Partners, short positions in AMC stock lost about $1.3 billion last week alone, including a loss of $291 million on May 26 alone.</p><p>S3 Partners also estimates that the surge of AMC and GME on Tuesday cost short-selling investors another $848 million. Among them, the short selling loss on AMC was US $536 million, and the loss on GME short positions was US $312 million. Since the beginning of this year, the combined losses of short sellers caused by the soaring short squeeze of these two stocks have been about $9.25 billion.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the highly popular<b>AMC cinemas are already in a state of ignoring negative news</b>。</p><p>Just after the company announced the sale of $230 million in shares to Mudrick Capital on Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said that day<b>Mudrick Capital quickly liquidated AMC stock</b>。 Even with such an event, AMC Cinemas still closed up 22% on Tuesday. And less than a day after the market marveled that Mudrick Capital made a profit of over 10 million US dollars in just one day, it quickly discovered that they \"ran too fast\" and missed at least 200 million US dollars in profits.</p><p>However, like Mudrick Capital, the retail investors of AMC Cinemas are also in a state of frequent ultra-short-term trading. Since last Thursday, the daily turnover of AMC Cinemas has been above tens of billions of dollars, and this figure is even steady. Over Apple, which is worth $2 trillion.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75428&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75428&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140446973","content_text":"周三，在市场整体窄幅震荡等待行情催化因素的背景下，美股三大指数小幅收涨，AMC院线等WSB概念股集体暴涨，成为市场焦点。\n推出“爆米花股东福利”的AMC院线盘中暴涨126%，盘中几次熔断，截至收盘，AMC院线涨99.70%，年初至今累积上涨2959.91%。除了AMC院线外，同属WSB概念的高斯电子周三收涨68.61%、3B家居涨62.11%、Express涨36.48%、黑莓涨31.92%。\nAMC院线启动百万散户招待计划\nAMC院线近期多次对零售投资者主动示好引发了百万散户的“涌泉相报”——短短几个交易日里，公司的股价就从十几美元上蹿至60美元的历史新高，市值升至约330亿美元，超过GameStop约200亿美元的市值。\nAMC院线也不失时机地在周三推出名为“AMC Investor Connect”的投资者回馈计划（注：与日本的股东优待类似），其中包含特别优惠和最新活动，而且注册该计划的散户首次观影时还将获得一大桶免费爆米花。根据公司披露，截至3月11日的股东数据，AMC院线总共有320万个人投资者股东，持股比例达到总股本的80%。\n\n有市场观点认为，AMC Investor Connect是公司与散户建立联系的战略部署。该平台为散户提供独家促销活动，例如免费或打折商品以及独家放映邀请，也包括与董事会主席兼CEO Adam Aron的直接沟通机会。Adam Aron表示：\n\n “这一个新的投资者关系平台将使得公司能够直接与拥有80%股份的散户投资者沟通。公司希望能够不时地向这些投资者提供剧院的特别福利。归根结底，这些投资者是公司的拥有者，而我是在为他们打工。”\n\n几乎从未有哪个美国公司高管像Aron这样欢迎散户势力。不过也几乎没有哪个公司像AMC这样得益于这个群体。\nAMC几个月前还濒临破产。然而，誓要颠覆传统公司价值模型的散户涌了进来，推升了AMC股价，使之成为像GameStop一样的网红股代表。这种狂热让华尔街专业人士困惑不已。Asterisk Advisors的Mark Levin在报告中写道：\n\n “显然基本面是完全不支持这个普通股水平的（对Reddit散户来说却讲得通）。”\n\n\n不过，股价大涨并没有改变该公司盈利前景。由于新冠疫情影响尚未消除，分析师稳步下调该公司息税折旧摊销前利润预期，目前预计AMC未来12个月息税折旧摊销前亏损近1亿美元。\nAMC负债上升也加剧了基本面困境。该公司截至今年一季度长期负债升至54亿美元，从2016年的不到20亿美元增长了近两倍。\n\nAMC不予置评。\n空头遭暴击\nS3 Partners的数据显示，AMC股票的空头仅在上周就亏损约13亿美元，其中单单5月26日一天的亏损就达到2.91亿美元。\nS3 Partners还估算，AMC和GME本周二的大涨让卖空的投资者又损失了8.48亿美元。其中对AMC的做空损失为5.36亿美元，在GME空仓上损失3.12亿美元。今年以来，这两只个股高涨逼空造成的卖空者损失合计约有92.5亿美元。\n值得一提的是，具有超高人气的AMC院线已经处于无视利空的状态。\n在周二公司刚宣布向穆德里克资本（Mudrick Capital）出售2.3亿美元的股票后，当天就有知情人士称穆德里克资本迅速清仓了AMC的股票。即便出现这样的事件，周二AMC院线依然收涨22%。而就在市场惊叹穆德里克资本短短一天获利超千万美元后不到一天，便迅速发现他们“跑得太快”，至少错过了两个亿美元的利润。\n不过与穆德里克资本一样，AMC院线的散户投资者也处于频繁超短线买卖的状态，从上周四开始AMC院线每天的成交额都在百亿美元上方，这一数据甚至稳稳压过身价两万亿美元的苹果公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379084083,"gmtCreate":1618638533442,"gmtModify":1704713726143,"author":{"id":"3580905953148083","authorId":"3580905953148083","name":"6294f443","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580905953148083","idStr":"3580905953148083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379084083","repostId":"1194421768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194421768","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1618566364,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194421768?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-16 17:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to track the prosperity of the chip industry? Look at TSMC's capital expenditures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194421768","media":"Wind万得","summary":"1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。","content":"<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>1. Global chip production capacity continues to be tight. From the supply side, due to the global epidemic and other problems, global supply has been revised down for three consecutive years; From the demand side, it is currently in the switching window from 4G to 5G, and the silicon content is increasing rapidly. There is strong demand for mobile phones, intelligence of cars, and mining machines.</p><p>2. Companies in raw materials, OEM, packaging and testing can well pass on the cost increase to downstream customers, because now production capacity is king, and their profits have been significantly improved, while design companies have shown obvious Matthew effect.</p><p>3. On the basis of raising a round of capital expenditures in the first quarter of this year, TSMC once again issued a three-year capital expenditure plan of 100 billion US dollars in April. It will have a jump in capital expenditure every ten years or so, which is often accompanied by the rise and penetration of innovative applications in the industry. The first wave is PC Internet, the second wave is smartphones, and the third wave is now.</p><p>4. TSMC's capital expenditure planning is the best indicator to track the prosperity of the semiconductor industry.</p><p>5. Smart cars can be understood as a car that needs to be equipped with an extra computer and an 8-inch silicon wafer. The corresponding new demand for bicycle semiconductors is at least 800 US dollars, and can even be as high as 1,800-2,000 US dollars.</p><p>01 <b>Which links will benefit most from the global core shortage?</b></p><p>Standing at the current point in time, there is a shortage of global chips. Judging from the annual report forecast and the first quarter report forecast, China's chip industry has entered a very strong explosive period. Asset prices and industry fundamentals have obviously deviated. Industry leaders are currently Have very strong configuration value.</p><p>The continued shortage of production capacity is an issue that everyone is most concerned about, which depends on both supply and demand aspects:</p><p><b>From the perspective of supply, global production capacity expansion has not been smooth in the past three years. Due to Sino-US trade issues and the global epidemic, the global supply side has been revised downward for three consecutive years; From the perspective of demand, we are currently in the switching window from 4G to 5G, and the silicon content is increasing rapidly.</b>Including the demand for mobile phones, the intelligence of cars, and mining machines, etc. Therefore, the entire industry chain is out of stock.</p><p>From upstream core raw materials, to midstream OEM, to downstream packaging and testing, there have been comprehensive tightening and price increases. We must focus on the ability of price transmission in the industrial chain.<b>Companies in raw materials, OEM, packaging and testing can well pass on rising costs to downstream customers.</b>Because production capacity is now king, their profitability has improved significantly. And<b>Design companies show an obvious Matthew effect.</b>For companies with bargaining power, we can also see their profitability increase in the next financial report. For most semiconductor companies this year, it has ushered in three blows from volume to price to profitability. The valuation of semiconductors has been digested by the decline in the past period of time. If the next month-on-month performance exceeds expectations, semiconductors are very worthy of attention at this point in time.</p><p>From the perspective of all aspects, including design companies, asset-heavy OEMs, packaging and testing, as well as materials and equipment,<b>What is most lacking at present is on the material side and production capacity side.</b>This round of high semiconductor boom has benefited most from wafer foundries, IDM manufacturers with their own production capacity, supporting material manufacturers, and packaging and testing links. These links are currently in the seller's market, and they have strong bargaining power and order selection ability. Since orders with high gross profit cannot be handled, orders with low gross profit and unwillingness to accept price increases will face adjustments.<b>Due to full capacity utilization and structural improvement, asset-heavy foundries will experience a significant increase in gross profit margins.</b>Of course, the revenue side will also perform very well.</p><p>Focusing on the world, TSMC is the most beneficial. It is now in an absolutely strong position, including SMIC (00981), Hua Hong (01347), China Resources Micro, as well as Wingtech's Anshi, Yangjie, etc. with IDM production capacity. These companies are all in the stage of full capacity utilization. The packaging and testing fields include Changdian, Jingfang, Tongfu, Huatian, etc., all of which are fully loaded. In terms of materials, Japanese, Korean, and American material manufacturers benefit the most. The two links that are most lacking now are IC carrier boards, especially those used in high-performance computing CPUs, and the other is silicon wafers. In the case of material shortage, the progress of localization will accelerate, especially in the current international situation, the localization of silicon wafers, carriers, photoresists, etc. will accelerate. Corresponding companies include Tongcheng New Materials, Jingrui Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Xinyang in the photoresist field, Xingsen and Shennan in the IC carrier field, and Shanghai Silicon and Leon Micro in the silicon wafer field.</p><p><b>There will be differentiation in the design process,</b>Some people benefit and others suffer,<b>Small manufacturers are the losers.</b>Since they are bulk orders, when production capacity is tight, foundries will increase their prices even more. Now most listed companies have achieved leading positions in their respective subdivisions, at least the top three and top five positions in the industry,<b>For industry leaders, if the increase in material costs can be successfully passed on to customers, its gross profit margin will definitely increase due to the existence of fixed costs.</b>Therefore, their profitability will also be significantly improved, among which Weir shares will benefit the most, including Zhuoshengwei, Zhaoyi, IDM's Wingtech and China Resources Micro just mentioned, etc.</p><p>The other category is Driver IC. The driver chip is also the most serious link in shortage, including several companies that make driver chips, such as Jingfeng Mingyuan, Ming Microelectronics, and Weir Co., Ltd., which are now in a gross profit margin. A substantial increase in the situation.</p><p>02 <b>TSMC's capital expenditure plan is the best tracking indicator of industry prosperity</b></p><p>Another remaining sector is equipment, which is relatively later in the cycle. Because in the case of insufficient production capacity, all manufacturers are gradually resuming or even increasing their capital expenditures this year.<b>On the basis of raising a round of capital expenditures in the first quarter of this year, TSMC once again issued a three-year capital expenditure plan of 100 billion US dollars around April 2.</b>Under this effect, the entire equipment link will also be pulled. If these domestic foundries follow the leading TSMC and there is a recovery and increase in capital expenditures, domestic localized equipment will definitely benefit, including North Huachuang, China Micro, Jingce, Zhichun, and Huafeng Measurement and Control.</p><p>We made a picture in last year's report, which is the correspondence between TSMC's capital expenditure and its revenue and stock price. Our history of review TSMC over the past 20 years,<b>It has a jump in capital expenditure every ten years or so,</b>Behind it is often accompanied by the rise and penetration of innovative applications in an industry.<b>The first wave is PC Internet, the second wave is smartphones,</b>They occurred from 2001 to 2003 and from 2010 to 2012 respectively.<b>The third jump in capital expenditure is actually happening now,</b>Before 2018 and 2019, its average annual capital expenditure was about US $9 billion to US $10 billion. In 2019, it raised this figure by 50% to US $15 billion. Since then, it has raised it three times in a row. Now Basically, its capital expenditure is planned to be 100 billion in three years, which means that it is three times more than before.</p><p>We believe that TSMC's capital expenditure increase must be because it sees so much new demand. In the next at least five to ten years, it will see so much new demand to match so much production capacity before it will make this decision. I think<b>TSMC's capital expenditure planning is the best tracking indicator.</b>The reason why this round of global semiconductor rebound also occurred after TSMC gave such positive capital expenditure guidance.</p><p>03 <b>Where does the demand come from?</b></p><p>The largest demand side comes from HPC, high-performance computing, and the intelligence and new energy of automobiles. To put it simply,<b>Today's smart cars can be understood as a car that needs to be equipped with an additional computer and an 8-inch silicon wafer.</b>It corresponds to the new demand for semiconductors, 8-inch silicon wafers,<b>The increase in new energy vehicles is basically more than US $800.</b>It is equivalent to the current quotation of high-end 8-inch silicon wafers. A car needs at least one piece. An intelligent car requires a computer with the most advanced computing power and corresponding storage and sensors. One<b>The Ministry has new demand for intelligent new energy vehicles and entire bicycles.</b>We only talk about incremental demand,<b>It's probably $1,800 to $2,000 or more.</b>If this increment starts to penetrate quickly, it will be a huge number, and the existing production capacity will definitely be unable to meet the new demand in this area. It is precisely because more and more new car-making forces, including manufacturers like Tesla, are beginning to make efforts in this area. This round of car core shortage is a rare situation in history.</p><p>HPC is relatively difficult to quantify, because there are many things that are not actually in an open and transparent market, such as mining, but we can see it from another observed indicator, the sales volume of graphics cards and the second-hand price increase of graphics cards. Basically, the graphics cards of Nvidia 307 now need to increase the price by more than 30%, and even some series need to increase the price by more than 70%. Many reasons for this are that a large number of graphics cards are used for mining.</p><p><b>The demand for HPC is one for mining machines and the other for the recovery of servers.</b>Starting this year, Intel's new platform and AMD's new platform will be updated from the second half of the year, which will bring about a wave of recovery in the incremental demand for servers, and will also create a very large gap in the entire high-end manufacturing process.</p><p>I still want to reiterate that how good the industry demand is or how long it will last, I think it is the most intuitive to look at the actions of the leader.</p><p>04 <b>Will the high performance growth of the first quarterly report have the impact of last year's low base?</b></p><p><b>Traditional manufacturing industries, such as passive components and panels, including consumer electronics, had a low base in terms of performance due to the direct impact of the epidemic last year.</b>Under the influence of this low base, the growth rate of these links in this quarterly report will be very eye-catching.</p><p><b>In fact, the chip sector had a relatively smaller impact on last year's base.</b>Why? The first quarter of last year was the first quarter of the epidemic. In the chip sector, especially design companies, their orders were basically in foundries, such as SMIC, TSMC, etc., which produced and operated under the highly automated conditions of these foundries. We In the first quarter of last year, in the face of market concerns, we pulled out more than a dozen listed companies to talk about them. At that time, basically many companies were operating with high capacity utilization. Therefore, for chip companies and semiconductor companies last year, the impact of the epidemic was smaller, or last year, because the world was worried about the disruption of the epidemic to the supply chain, many companies increased their horsepower in the first quarter of last year. So we see that taking Weir shares as an example, its revenue growth rate in the first quarter of last year was 44%. On the basis of the fourth quarter of 2019, the growth rate is still increasing. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is due to the impact of consolidation. It increased by 800% year-on-year, and there is also a single-quarter net profit close to 450 million, which continues to rise compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. For this kind of company, the impact of last year's base is actually not big. Their base was not low last year. I think this wave is more reflected in their own new products and the rapid growth of orders brought about by the high prosperity of the entire industry. and increased profitability.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to track the prosperity of the chip industry? 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Look at TSMC's capital expenditures\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 17:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>1. Global chip production capacity continues to be tight. From the supply side, due to the global epidemic and other problems, global supply has been revised down for three consecutive years; From the demand side, it is currently in the switching window from 4G to 5G, and the silicon content is increasing rapidly. There is strong demand for mobile phones, intelligence of cars, and mining machines.</p><p>2. Companies in raw materials, OEM, packaging and testing can well pass on the cost increase to downstream customers, because now production capacity is king, and their profits have been significantly improved, while design companies have shown obvious Matthew effect.</p><p>3. On the basis of raising a round of capital expenditures in the first quarter of this year, TSMC once again issued a three-year capital expenditure plan of 100 billion US dollars in April. It will have a jump in capital expenditure every ten years or so, which is often accompanied by the rise and penetration of innovative applications in the industry. The first wave is PC Internet, the second wave is smartphones, and the third wave is now.</p><p>4. TSMC's capital expenditure planning is the best indicator to track the prosperity of the semiconductor industry.</p><p>5. Smart cars can be understood as a car that needs to be equipped with an extra computer and an 8-inch silicon wafer. The corresponding new demand for bicycle semiconductors is at least 800 US dollars, and can even be as high as 1,800-2,000 US dollars.</p><p>01 <b>Which links will benefit most from the global core shortage?</b></p><p>Standing at the current point in time, there is a shortage of global chips. Judging from the annual report forecast and the first quarter report forecast, China's chip industry has entered a very strong explosive period. Asset prices and industry fundamentals have obviously deviated. Industry leaders are currently Have very strong configuration value.</p><p>The continued shortage of production capacity is an issue that everyone is most concerned about, which depends on both supply and demand aspects:</p><p><b>From the perspective of supply, global production capacity expansion has not been smooth in the past three years. Due to Sino-US trade issues and the global epidemic, the global supply side has been revised downward for three consecutive years; From the perspective of demand, we are currently in the switching window from 4G to 5G, and the silicon content is increasing rapidly.</b>Including the demand for mobile phones, the intelligence of cars, and mining machines, etc. Therefore, the entire industry chain is out of stock.</p><p>From upstream core raw materials, to midstream OEM, to downstream packaging and testing, there have been comprehensive tightening and price increases. We must focus on the ability of price transmission in the industrial chain.<b>Companies in raw materials, OEM, packaging and testing can well pass on rising costs to downstream customers.</b>Because production capacity is now king, their profitability has improved significantly. And<b>Design companies show an obvious Matthew effect.</b>For companies with bargaining power, we can also see their profitability increase in the next financial report. For most semiconductor companies this year, it has ushered in three blows from volume to price to profitability. The valuation of semiconductors has been digested by the decline in the past period of time. If the next month-on-month performance exceeds expectations, semiconductors are very worthy of attention at this point in time.</p><p>From the perspective of all aspects, including design companies, asset-heavy OEMs, packaging and testing, as well as materials and equipment,<b>What is most lacking at present is on the material side and production capacity side.</b>This round of high semiconductor boom has benefited most from wafer foundries, IDM manufacturers with their own production capacity, supporting material manufacturers, and packaging and testing links. These links are currently in the seller's market, and they have strong bargaining power and order selection ability. Since orders with high gross profit cannot be handled, orders with low gross profit and unwillingness to accept price increases will face adjustments.<b>Due to full capacity utilization and structural improvement, asset-heavy foundries will experience a significant increase in gross profit margins.</b>Of course, the revenue side will also perform very well.</p><p>Focusing on the world, TSMC is the most beneficial. It is now in an absolutely strong position, including SMIC (00981), Hua Hong (01347), China Resources Micro, as well as Wingtech's Anshi, Yangjie, etc. with IDM production capacity. These companies are all in the stage of full capacity utilization. The packaging and testing fields include Changdian, Jingfang, Tongfu, Huatian, etc., all of which are fully loaded. In terms of materials, Japanese, Korean, and American material manufacturers benefit the most. The two links that are most lacking now are IC carrier boards, especially those used in high-performance computing CPUs, and the other is silicon wafers. In the case of material shortage, the progress of localization will accelerate, especially in the current international situation, the localization of silicon wafers, carriers, photoresists, etc. will accelerate. Corresponding companies include Tongcheng New Materials, Jingrui Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Xinyang in the photoresist field, Xingsen and Shennan in the IC carrier field, and Shanghai Silicon and Leon Micro in the silicon wafer field.</p><p><b>There will be differentiation in the design process,</b>Some people benefit and others suffer,<b>Small manufacturers are the losers.</b>Since they are bulk orders, when production capacity is tight, foundries will increase their prices even more. Now most listed companies have achieved leading positions in their respective subdivisions, at least the top three and top five positions in the industry,<b>For industry leaders, if the increase in material costs can be successfully passed on to customers, its gross profit margin will definitely increase due to the existence of fixed costs.</b>Therefore, their profitability will also be significantly improved, among which Weir shares will benefit the most, including Zhuoshengwei, Zhaoyi, IDM's Wingtech and China Resources Micro just mentioned, etc.</p><p>The other category is Driver IC. The driver chip is also the most serious link in shortage, including several companies that make driver chips, such as Jingfeng Mingyuan, Ming Microelectronics, and Weir Co., Ltd., which are now in a gross profit margin. A substantial increase in the situation.</p><p>02 <b>TSMC's capital expenditure plan is the best tracking indicator of industry prosperity</b></p><p>Another remaining sector is equipment, which is relatively later in the cycle. Because in the case of insufficient production capacity, all manufacturers are gradually resuming or even increasing their capital expenditures this year.<b>On the basis of raising a round of capital expenditures in the first quarter of this year, TSMC once again issued a three-year capital expenditure plan of 100 billion US dollars around April 2.</b>Under this effect, the entire equipment link will also be pulled. If these domestic foundries follow the leading TSMC and there is a recovery and increase in capital expenditures, domestic localized equipment will definitely benefit, including North Huachuang, China Micro, Jingce, Zhichun, and Huafeng Measurement and Control.</p><p>We made a picture in last year's report, which is the correspondence between TSMC's capital expenditure and its revenue and stock price. Our history of review TSMC over the past 20 years,<b>It has a jump in capital expenditure every ten years or so,</b>Behind it is often accompanied by the rise and penetration of innovative applications in an industry.<b>The first wave is PC Internet, the second wave is smartphones,</b>They occurred from 2001 to 2003 and from 2010 to 2012 respectively.<b>The third jump in capital expenditure is actually happening now,</b>Before 2018 and 2019, its average annual capital expenditure was about US $9 billion to US $10 billion. In 2019, it raised this figure by 50% to US $15 billion. Since then, it has raised it three times in a row. Now Basically, its capital expenditure is planned to be 100 billion in three years, which means that it is three times more than before.</p><p>We believe that TSMC's capital expenditure increase must be because it sees so much new demand. In the next at least five to ten years, it will see so much new demand to match so much production capacity before it will make this decision. I think<b>TSMC's capital expenditure planning is the best tracking indicator.</b>The reason why this round of global semiconductor rebound also occurred after TSMC gave such positive capital expenditure guidance.</p><p>03 <b>Where does the demand come from?</b></p><p>The largest demand side comes from HPC, high-performance computing, and the intelligence and new energy of automobiles. To put it simply,<b>Today's smart cars can be understood as a car that needs to be equipped with an additional computer and an 8-inch silicon wafer.</b>It corresponds to the new demand for semiconductors, 8-inch silicon wafers,<b>The increase in new energy vehicles is basically more than US $800.</b>It is equivalent to the current quotation of high-end 8-inch silicon wafers. A car needs at least one piece. An intelligent car requires a computer with the most advanced computing power and corresponding storage and sensors. One<b>The Ministry has new demand for intelligent new energy vehicles and entire bicycles.</b>We only talk about incremental demand,<b>It's probably $1,800 to $2,000 or more.</b>If this increment starts to penetrate quickly, it will be a huge number, and the existing production capacity will definitely be unable to meet the new demand in this area. It is precisely because more and more new car-making forces, including manufacturers like Tesla, are beginning to make efforts in this area. This round of car core shortage is a rare situation in history.</p><p>HPC is relatively difficult to quantify, because there are many things that are not actually in an open and transparent market, such as mining, but we can see it from another observed indicator, the sales volume of graphics cards and the second-hand price increase of graphics cards. Basically, the graphics cards of Nvidia 307 now need to increase the price by more than 30%, and even some series need to increase the price by more than 70%. Many reasons for this are that a large number of graphics cards are used for mining.</p><p><b>The demand for HPC is one for mining machines and the other for the recovery of servers.</b>Starting this year, Intel's new platform and AMD's new platform will be updated from the second half of the year, which will bring about a wave of recovery in the incremental demand for servers, and will also create a very large gap in the entire high-end manufacturing process.</p><p>I still want to reiterate that how good the industry demand is or how long it will last, I think it is the most intuitive to look at the actions of the leader.</p><p>04 <b>Will the high performance growth of the first quarterly report have the impact of last year's low base?</b></p><p><b>Traditional manufacturing industries, such as passive components and panels, including consumer electronics, had a low base in terms of performance due to the direct impact of the epidemic last year.</b>Under the influence of this low base, the growth rate of these links in this quarterly report will be very eye-catching.</p><p><b>In fact, the chip sector had a relatively smaller impact on last year's base.</b>Why? The first quarter of last year was the first quarter of the epidemic. In the chip sector, especially design companies, their orders were basically in foundries, such as SMIC, TSMC, etc., which produced and operated under the highly automated conditions of these foundries. We In the first quarter of last year, in the face of market concerns, we pulled out more than a dozen listed companies to talk about them. At that time, basically many companies were operating with high capacity utilization. Therefore, for chip companies and semiconductor companies last year, the impact of the epidemic was smaller, or last year, because the world was worried about the disruption of the epidemic to the supply chain, many companies increased their horsepower in the first quarter of last year. So we see that taking Weir shares as an example, its revenue growth rate in the first quarter of last year was 44%. On the basis of the fourth quarter of 2019, the growth rate is still increasing. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is due to the impact of consolidation. It increased by 800% year-on-year, and there is also a single-quarter net profit close to 450 million, which continues to rise compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. For this kind of company, the impact of last year's base is actually not big. Their base was not low last year. I think this wave is more reflected in their own new products and the rapid growth of orders brought about by the high prosperity of the entire industry. and increased profitability.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194421768","content_text":"核心观点\n\n\n\n\n\n1、全球芯片产能持续紧张，从供给端看，由于全球疫情等问题，导致全球供给连续三年下修;从需求端看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机、汽车的智能化，以及矿机等都有强劲需求。\n2、原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，它们的盈利有明显的提升，而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应。\n3、台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划。它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往伴随着行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透，第一波是PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，第三次就是现在。\n4、台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪半导体行业景气度的指标。\n5、智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，对应的单车半导体新增需求量至少在800美金，甚至可以高达1800-2000美金以上。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n01 全球缺芯，最受益的是哪些环节？\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n站在当前的时点，全球芯片缺成一片，中国的芯片行业从年报预告和一季报预告来看，进入了非常强的爆发期，资产价格和行业基本面出现了明显的背离，行业龙头目前具备非常强的配置价值。\n产能的持续紧张是大家最关心的一个问题，这要从供需两方面看：\n从供给来看，过去三年全球的产能扩张并不顺利，由于中美的贸易问题和全球的疫情，导致全球的供给端连续三年下修；从需求看，当前处于4G到5G的切换窗口，硅含量在迅速提升，包括手机需求，汽车的智能化，以及矿机等等。因此整个产业链出现了缺货的情况。\n从上游的核心原材料，到中游代工，到下游封装测试，全面出现了吃紧、涨价，我们重点要关注产业链价格传导的能力，原材料、代工、封测环节的公司都能很好地把成本上涨转嫁给下游客户，因为现在是产能为王，所以它们的盈利有明显的提升。而设计类的公司呈现了明显的马太效应，对于有议价能力的公司，我们也能在接下来的财报中看到他们的盈利能力提升。今年对大部分半导体公司来说，迎来的是从量到价到盈利能力的三击。半导体的估值经过了前一段时间的下跌消化，如果接下来迎来环比超预期的业绩，半导体在当下时点是非常值得关注的。\n从各环节来看，包括设计公司、重资产的代工、封装测试，以及材料和设备，目前最缺的是在材料端和产能端。这一轮半导体的高景气，最受益的是晶圆代工厂，具有自有产能的IDM厂商，以及配套的材料厂商，还有封测环节，这几个环节目前处于卖方市场，他们具备很强的议价能力和订单挑选能力，由于高毛利的订单做不过来，低毛利和不愿接受涨价的订单，就会面临调整，由于产能利用率满载和结构改善，重资产的代工厂会出现明显的毛利率上升，当然营收端也会有很不错的表现。\n着眼全球，台积电是最受益的，它现在处于绝对的强势地位，包括中芯国际（00981）、华虹（01347）、华润微，以及具备IDM产能的闻泰的安世、扬杰等等，这些公司都处于产能利用率满载的阶段。封测领域包括长电、晶方、通富、华天等等，也都是满载状态。材料环节，日系、韩系、美系的材料厂商是最为受益的，现在最缺的两个环节，一个是IC载板，尤其是用在高性能运算的CPU的IC载板，另一个是硅片。在材料短缺的情况下，国产化的进度会有加速，尤其是在当前的国际形势下，硅片、载板、光刻胶等会有国产化加速。相应的公司包括光刻胶领域的彤程新材、晶瑞股份以及上海新阳，IC载板领域包括兴森、深南，硅片领域包括沪硅、立昂微等。\n设计环节会出现分化，有人受益有人受损，小厂家是受损的一方，由于是散单，在产能紧张的情况下，代工厂对它们的涨价力度会更大，现在绝大部分的上市公司，它们在各自的细分领域都是做到了龙头的地位，至少行业前三、前五的位置，对于行业龙头来说，如果能顺利把材料成本的上涨转嫁给客户，由于还有固定成本的存在，它的毛利率肯定会上升，因此它们的盈利能力也会有比较明显的提升，其中韦尔股份是最为受益的，也包括卓胜微、兆易，刚刚讲的IDM的闻泰、华润微等。\n另外一类就是Driver IC，驱动芯片这一块也是缺货最为严峻的环节，包括几家做驱动芯片的公司，晶丰明源、明微电子，以及韦尔股份，现在也都是处在一个毛利率大幅度提升的状况。\n\n\n\n\n\n02 台积电的资本开支规划是行业景气度的最好跟踪指标\n\n\n\n\n\n剩下还有一个板块是设备，设备相对来讲属于更后周期一些。因为在产能不足的情况下，所有的厂家今年都在陆续恢复甚至上调自己的资本开支，台积电在今年一季度已经上调过一轮资本开支的基础上，4月2号左右再度发出了三年千亿美金资本开支的规划，在这个作用之下，整个设备环节也是会被拉动一波。如果国内这些代工厂跟随龙头台积电，有一个资本开支的复苏和上调，国内的国产化设备肯定也会受益，包括北方华创、中微、精测、至纯、华峰测控。\n我们在去年的报告中做了一张图，就是台积电的资本开支和它的收入、股价的对应。我们复盘台积电过去二十多年的历史，它每隔十年左右会有一次资本开支的跃升，背后往往是伴随着一个行业大的创新应用的崛起和渗透。第一波，PC互联网，第二波是智能手机，分别发生在2001年到2003年，2010年到2012年这两个时间段。第三次资本开支的跃升其实就是发生现在，在2018年、2019年之前，它平均每年的资本开支大概在90到100亿美金，在2019年，它把这个数字上调了50%，上调到了150亿美金，此后，又连续上调了三次，现在基本上它的资本开支规划三年1000亿，也就是说比之前多了三倍。\n我们认为台积电的资本开支上调一定是它看到有这么多的新增需求，未来至少五到十年间，能够看到这么多新增需求来匹配这么多的产能，它才会作出这个决定，我觉得台积电的资本开支规划是最好的跟踪指标，这一轮全球半导体之所以反弹，也是发生在台积电给了这么积极的资本开支的指引之后。\n\n\n\n\n\n03 需求来自哪些方面？\n\n\n\n\n\n需求端最大的几块来自于HPC、高性能运算以及汽车的智能化和新能源化。简单点讲，现在的智能汽车可以理解成一部汽车需要多装一台电脑再加一片8寸硅片，它对应着半导体新增的需求量，8寸硅片，新能源车这块的增量基本上都在800美金以上，相当于现在高端8寸硅片的报价。一部车至少需要一片，智能化一部车需要一个算力最先进的电脑和相应的存储和传感器，一部具备智能化的新能源车整个单车的新增需求，我们只讲增量需求，大概在1800到2000美金以上。这个增量如果迅速开始渗透是相当巨大的一个数字，现有的产能肯定是没有办法去满足这块的新增需求。正是因为有越来越多的造车新势力，包括特斯拉这种厂家开始在这块发力，本轮汽车缺芯是历史上罕见的情况。\nHPC这一块相对来说比较难量化，因为有很多东西其实不是在一个公开透明的市场，比如说挖矿，但我们从另外一个观测的指标，显卡的销量和显卡的二手加价的幅度来看，可见一斑。基本上现在英伟达307的显卡都需要加价30%以上，甚至有的系列需要加价70%以上，这中间很多原因就是大量显卡被用于挖矿。\nHPC这一块的需求，一块是矿机，另外一块是服务器的复苏，今年开始，英特尔的新平台，AMD的新平台从下半年开始有一个更新换代，这会带来服务器这一块增量需求的一波复苏，同样对于整个高端制程会产生非常大的缺口。\n还是要重申一点，行业需求有多好或者持续性大概有多久，我觉得看龙头的动作是最直观的。\n\n\n\n\n\n04 一季报的业绩高增长会不会有去年低基数的影响？\n\n\n\n\n\n传统的制造业，比如说被动元器件、面板，包括消费电子在内，去年因为疫情直接影响了开工，在业绩上属于低基数，在这个低基数的作用下，这次一季报这些环节的增速都会非常亮眼。\n芯片板块其实相对来说去年基数的影响更小一些，为什么？去年一季度是疫情发生的第一个季度，芯片环节，尤其是设计公司，他们的订单基本都在代工厂，中芯、台积电等等，在这些代工厂高度自动化的条件下去生产、运转，我们在去年一季度的时候，当时面对市场的担忧，我们把十几家上市公司拉出来聊过，当时基本上很多公司都是处在高产能利用率运转的状态。因此，去年对于芯片公司、半导体公司来讲，疫情的影响是更小一些的，或者去年因为全球担心疫情对供应链的干扰，去年一季度很多公司都是加大马力在运转。所以我们看到以韦尔股份为例，去年一季度它的收入增速是44%，在2019年四季度的基础上，增速还在增加，归母净利润的增速由于并表的影响同比增长了800%，也有接近4.5亿左右的单季度净利润，环比2019年的四季度还在继续往上。对于这种公司来讲，去年基数的影响其实不大，他们去年并不算低基数，我觉得这一波更多还是体现在他们自身的新产品以及整个行业的高景气带来的订单高速增长和盈利能力的增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}