To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
caos
+Follow
Posts · 40
Posts · 40
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
caos
caos
·
11-22
$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$
bmnr has 284mil outstanding shares according to stockanalysis.com. EPS of 13.39 and 328 mil income dont seems to tally. please enlighten me. TIA.
看
455
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
11-21
$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$
Numb...
看
5.59K
回复
3
点赞
58
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
08-31
bmnr is the way to go
看
923
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
07-31
USD 72
看
846
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
2022-12-06
wow
US STOCKS-Wall St Slides As Services Data Spooks Investors About Fed Rate Hikes
(Reuters) - U.S. markets ended Monday lower, as investors spooked by better-than-expected data from
US STOCKS-Wall St Slides As Services Data Spooks Investors About Fed Rate Hikes
看
2.60K
回复
Comment
点赞
7
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
2022-12-05
ok
ASX Edges Higher; Metcash Lifts Dividend on Higher Earnings
The S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1 per cent, or 9.5 points, to 7311 in the opening minutes of trade, buoyed b
ASX Edges Higher; Metcash Lifts Dividend on Higher Earnings
看
3.01K
回复
1
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
2022-11-16
ok
What If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?
The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in
What If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?
看
2.35K
回复
2
点赞
11
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
2022-11-10
hi
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
1.95K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
2022-11-09
still buying more.
Palantir: -11.48% After Earnings, And My Investment Thesis Is Changing
SummaryMy investment thesis has changed now that Palantir Technologies Inc. is projecting its revenu
Palantir: -11.48% After Earnings, And My Investment Thesis Is Changing
看
2.80K
回复
1
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
caos
caos
·
2022-11-07
huat
Singapore Stock Market Tipped To Open In The Green
The Singapore stock market rebounded on Friday, one day after ending the seven-day winning streak in
Singapore Stock Market Tipped To Open In The Green
看
2.47K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4092135148477260","uuid":"4092135148477260","gmtCreate":1629033536589,"gmtModify":1706620742988,"name":"caos","pinyin":"caos","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":3,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":40,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖(非转发)","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.11","exceedPercentage":"93.08%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.09.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.09","exceedPercentage":"80.64%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":502840900678320,"gmtCreate":1763772511850,"gmtModify":1763777764566,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BMNR\">$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ </a> bmnr has 284mil outstanding shares according to stockanalysis.com. EPS of 13.39 and 328 mil income dont seems to tally. please enlighten me. TIA.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BMNR\">$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ </a> bmnr has 284mil outstanding shares according to stockanalysis.com. EPS of 13.39 and 328 mil income dont seems to tally. please enlighten me. TIA.","text":"$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ bmnr has 284mil outstanding shares according to stockanalysis.com. EPS of 13.39 and 328 mil income dont seems to tally. please enlighten me. TIA.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502840900678320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502593258013456,"gmtCreate":1763711942885,"gmtModify":1763711946202,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BMNR\">$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ </a> Numb...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BMNR\">$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ </a> Numb...","text":"$BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ Numb...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/59e15e1bd928f6407c4deef2b42498ff","width":"895","height":"1244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":58,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":259,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502593258013456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4111926286669142","authorId":"4111926286669142","name":"koalasleepsalot","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4111926286669142","idStr":"4111926286669142"},"content":"whats the chance of recovery","text":"whats the chance of recovery","html":"whats the chance of recovery"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":473530063291176,"gmtCreate":1756643620521,"gmtModify":1756643624505,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bmnr is the way to go","listText":"bmnr is the way to go","text":"bmnr is the way to go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/473530063291176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":462579117970272,"gmtCreate":1753940286432,"gmtModify":1754399719432,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"USD 72","listText":"USD 72","text":"USD 72","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/462579117970272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967163052,"gmtCreate":1670285100176,"gmtModify":1676538335951,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967163052","repostId":"2289919187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2289919187","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1670275924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2289919187?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 05:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall St Slides As Services Data Spooks Investors About Fed Rate Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289919187","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - U.S. markets ended Monday lower, as investors spooked by better-than-expected data from ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - U.S. markets ended Monday lower, as investors spooked by better-than-expected data from the services sector re-evaluated whether the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates for longer, while shares of Tesla slid on reports of a production cut in China.</p><p>The electric-vehicle maker slumped 6.4% on plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% from the previous month.</p><p>This weighed on the Nasdaq, where Tesla was one of the biggest fallers, pulling the tech-heavy index to its second straight decline.</p><p>Broadly, indexes suffered as data showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy.</p><p>The data came on the heels of a survey last week that showed stronger-than-expected job and wage growth in November, challenging hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes amid recent signs of ebbing inflation.</p><p>"Today is a bit of a response to Friday, because that jobs report, showing the economy was not slowing down that much, was contrary to the message which (Chair Jerome) Powell had delivered on Wednesday afternoon," said Bernard Drury, CEO of Drury Capital, referencing comments made by the head of the Federal Reserve saying it was time to slow the pace of coming interest rate hikes.</p><p>"We're back to inflation-fighting mode," Drury added.</p><p>Investors see an 89% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase interest rates by 50 basis points next week to 4.25%-4.50%, with the rates peaking at 4.984% in May 2023.</p><p>The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 13-14, the final meeting in a volatile year, which saw the central bank attempt to arrest a multi-decade rise in inflation with record interest rate hikes.</p><p>The aggressive policy tightening has also triggered worries of an economic downturn, with JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock among those that believe a recession is likely in 2023.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 482.78 points, or 1.4%, to close at 33,947.1, the S&P 500 lost 72.86 points, or 1.79%, to end on 3,998.84, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 221.56 points, or 1.93%, to finish on 11,239.94.</p><p>In other economic data this week, investors will also monitor weekly jobless claims, producer prices and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for more clues on the health of the U.S. economy.</p><p>Energy was among the biggest S&P sectoral losers, dropping 2.9%. It was weighed by U.S. natural gas futures slumping more than 10% on Monday, as the outlook dimmed due to forecasts for milder weather and the delayed restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant.</p><p>EQT Corp, one of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, was the steepest faller on the energy index, closing 7.2% lower.</p><p>Financials were also hit hard, slipping 2.5%. Although bank profits are typically boosted by rising interest rates, they are also sensitive to concerns about bad loans or slowing loan growth amid an economic downturn.</p><p>Meanwhile, apparel maker VF Corp dropped 11.2% - its largest one-day decline since March 2020 - after announcing the sudden retirement of CEO Steve Rendle. The firm, which owns names including outdoor wear brand The North Face and sneaker maker Vans, also cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts, blaming weaker-than-anticipated consumer demand.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.78 billion shares, compared with the 11.04 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&P 500 posted six new 52-week highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 105 new highs and 133 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Devik Jain in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Anil D'Silva, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall St Slides As Services Data Spooks Investors About Fed Rate Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall St Slides As Services Data Spooks Investors About Fed Rate Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-06 05:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - U.S. markets ended Monday lower, as investors spooked by better-than-expected data from the services sector re-evaluated whether the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates for longer, while shares of Tesla slid on reports of a production cut in China.</p><p>The electric-vehicle maker slumped 6.4% on plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% from the previous month.</p><p>This weighed on the Nasdaq, where Tesla was one of the biggest fallers, pulling the tech-heavy index to its second straight decline.</p><p>Broadly, indexes suffered as data showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy.</p><p>The data came on the heels of a survey last week that showed stronger-than-expected job and wage growth in November, challenging hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes amid recent signs of ebbing inflation.</p><p>"Today is a bit of a response to Friday, because that jobs report, showing the economy was not slowing down that much, was contrary to the message which (Chair Jerome) Powell had delivered on Wednesday afternoon," said Bernard Drury, CEO of Drury Capital, referencing comments made by the head of the Federal Reserve saying it was time to slow the pace of coming interest rate hikes.</p><p>"We're back to inflation-fighting mode," Drury added.</p><p>Investors see an 89% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase interest rates by 50 basis points next week to 4.25%-4.50%, with the rates peaking at 4.984% in May 2023.</p><p>The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 13-14, the final meeting in a volatile year, which saw the central bank attempt to arrest a multi-decade rise in inflation with record interest rate hikes.</p><p>The aggressive policy tightening has also triggered worries of an economic downturn, with JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock among those that believe a recession is likely in 2023.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 482.78 points, or 1.4%, to close at 33,947.1, the S&P 500 lost 72.86 points, or 1.79%, to end on 3,998.84, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 221.56 points, or 1.93%, to finish on 11,239.94.</p><p>In other economic data this week, investors will also monitor weekly jobless claims, producer prices and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for more clues on the health of the U.S. economy.</p><p>Energy was among the biggest S&P sectoral losers, dropping 2.9%. It was weighed by U.S. natural gas futures slumping more than 10% on Monday, as the outlook dimmed due to forecasts for milder weather and the delayed restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant.</p><p>EQT Corp, one of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, was the steepest faller on the energy index, closing 7.2% lower.</p><p>Financials were also hit hard, slipping 2.5%. Although bank profits are typically boosted by rising interest rates, they are also sensitive to concerns about bad loans or slowing loan growth amid an economic downturn.</p><p>Meanwhile, apparel maker VF Corp dropped 11.2% - its largest one-day decline since March 2020 - after announcing the sudden retirement of CEO Steve Rendle. The firm, which owns names including outdoor wear brand The North Face and sneaker maker Vans, also cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts, blaming weaker-than-anticipated consumer demand.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.78 billion shares, compared with the 11.04 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&P 500 posted six new 52-week highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 105 new highs and 133 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Devik Jain in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Anil D'Silva, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289919187","content_text":"(Reuters) - U.S. markets ended Monday lower, as investors spooked by better-than-expected data from the services sector re-evaluated whether the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates for longer, while shares of Tesla slid on reports of a production cut in China.The electric-vehicle maker slumped 6.4% on plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% from the previous month.This weighed on the Nasdaq, where Tesla was one of the biggest fallers, pulling the tech-heavy index to its second straight decline.Broadly, indexes suffered as data showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy.The data came on the heels of a survey last week that showed stronger-than-expected job and wage growth in November, challenging hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes amid recent signs of ebbing inflation.\"Today is a bit of a response to Friday, because that jobs report, showing the economy was not slowing down that much, was contrary to the message which (Chair Jerome) Powell had delivered on Wednesday afternoon,\" said Bernard Drury, CEO of Drury Capital, referencing comments made by the head of the Federal Reserve saying it was time to slow the pace of coming interest rate hikes.\"We're back to inflation-fighting mode,\" Drury added.Investors see an 89% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase interest rates by 50 basis points next week to 4.25%-4.50%, with the rates peaking at 4.984% in May 2023.The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 13-14, the final meeting in a volatile year, which saw the central bank attempt to arrest a multi-decade rise in inflation with record interest rate hikes.The aggressive policy tightening has also triggered worries of an economic downturn, with JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock among those that believe a recession is likely in 2023.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 482.78 points, or 1.4%, to close at 33,947.1, the S&P 500 lost 72.86 points, or 1.79%, to end on 3,998.84, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 221.56 points, or 1.93%, to finish on 11,239.94.In other economic data this week, investors will also monitor weekly jobless claims, producer prices and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for more clues on the health of the U.S. economy.Energy was among the biggest S&P sectoral losers, dropping 2.9%. It was weighed by U.S. natural gas futures slumping more than 10% on Monday, as the outlook dimmed due to forecasts for milder weather and the delayed restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant.EQT Corp, one of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, was the steepest faller on the energy index, closing 7.2% lower.Financials were also hit hard, slipping 2.5%. Although bank profits are typically boosted by rising interest rates, they are also sensitive to concerns about bad loans or slowing loan growth amid an economic downturn.Meanwhile, apparel maker VF Corp dropped 11.2% - its largest one-day decline since March 2020 - after announcing the sudden retirement of CEO Steve Rendle. The firm, which owns names including outdoor wear brand The North Face and sneaker maker Vans, also cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts, blaming weaker-than-anticipated consumer demand.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.78 billion shares, compared with the 11.04 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted six new 52-week highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 105 new highs and 133 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Devik Jain in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Anil D'Silva, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964418090,"gmtCreate":1670198577410,"gmtModify":1676538317224,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964418090","repostId":"1137572712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137572712","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670195875,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137572712?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 07:17","language":"en","title":"ASX Edges Higher; Metcash Lifts Dividend on Higher Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137572712","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"The S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1 per cent, or 9.5 points, to 7311 in the opening minutes of trade, buoyed b","content":"<div>\n<p>The S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1 per cent, or 9.5 points, to 7311 in the opening minutes of trade, buoyed by gains across the materials sector.Higher iron ore prices have boosted miners of the bulk commodity...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-advance-could-be-checked-by-rba-positioning-20221203-p5c3cm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASX Edges Higher; Metcash Lifts Dividend on Higher Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASX Edges Higher; Metcash Lifts Dividend on Higher Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 07:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-advance-could-be-checked-by-rba-positioning-20221203-p5c3cm><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1 per cent, or 9.5 points, to 7311 in the opening minutes of trade, buoyed by gains across the materials sector.Higher iron ore prices have boosted miners of the bulk commodity...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-advance-could-be-checked-by-rba-positioning-20221203-p5c3cm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-advance-could-be-checked-by-rba-positioning-20221203-p5c3cm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137572712","content_text":"The S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1 per cent, or 9.5 points, to 7311 in the opening minutes of trade, buoyed by gains across the materials sector.Higher iron ore prices have boosted miners of the bulk commodity; Fortescue rose 2.1 per cent to $20.10, BHP firmed 1.6 per cent to $46.50 and Champion Iron climbed 1.3 per cent to $6.84.Metcash edged 0.2 per cent lower to $4.22 despite lifting its interim dividend and beating earnings expectations.IGO fell 2.1 per cent to $16 after advising that a fire has impacted its Nova operation over the weekend.Splitit jumped 8.3 per cent to 19.5¢ after expanded its agreement with Google to bring its instalments solution to the Google Store in the US, Canada and Australia.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XJO.AU":0.9,"XKO.AU":0.9,"XAO.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963053822,"gmtCreate":1668557318266,"gmtModify":1676538074738,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963053822","repostId":"1160332041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160332041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668576951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160332041?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 13:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160332041","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in","content":"<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in the next three years. And Chair Jerome Powell still seems to think that a soft landing for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-s-own-forecasts-are-wrong?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-16 13:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-s-own-forecasts-are-wrong?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in the next three years. And Chair Jerome Powell still seems to think that a soft landing for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-s-own-forecasts-are-wrong?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-s-own-forecasts-are-wrong?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160332041","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in the next three years. And Chair Jerome Powell still seems to think that a soft landing for the economy is possible. In my view, however, a US recession is highly likely in the next 12 to 18 months. Why don’t I share the Fed’s optimism?The projections by the Fed governors will always paint a rosy picture. They’re instructed to condition their view on an optimal monetary policy, which obviously makes better outcomes achievable. In the real world, as has been demonstrated over the past year, policy is often far from that ideal, so actual results will usually be worse than implied by the projections.In the same vein, the Fed model that underpins its staff forecast contains assumptions that contribute to more pleasant forecasts. They include that the Fed will pursue the optimal monetary policy path in the future (regardless of past errors) and that households and businesses know this.These assumptions rule out persistent monetary policy errors or the loss of confidence by households and businesses in the Fed’s commitment and ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives.The Fed also operates in a world where there’s an important political economy constraint. Admitting that a recession would be required to get inflation in check might undercut public support for a tighter monetary policy. It also could subject the Fed to criticism that might ultimately undermine its independence or cause Congress to limit its authority in the future. Sugarcoating the cost of what the Fed needs to do may be viewed as a necessary evil so it can carry out its mission successfully. But it also runs the risk of undercutting the Fed’s credibility.Why do I believe a recession is unavoidable? To start, the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% annual rate target. Powell made it clear in his remarks at the Jackson Hole conference in August that this goal was “unconditional” and reiterated his commitment at his September news conference. Failure is an unattractive option because inflation expectations would rise, necessitating a harsher monetary policy and worse outcomes later.To bring inflation to 2%, the Federal Open Market Committee will have to push up the unemployment rate substantially. The labor market is much too tight to be consistent with a stable or declining underlying inflation rate.Judging from the relationship between unfilled job openings and the number of people who are unemployed, known as the Beveridge curve, the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation has risen considerably and could be as high as 5%, well above the current rate of 3.7%. Even if the Beveridge curve were to shift back down because labor market frictions abated, the unemployment rate would still need to rise to at least 4.5%.During the postwar period, every time the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5 percentage point or more, the US economy has fallen into recession. This empirical regularity is memorialized as the Sahm rule. The difficulty of engineering a soft landing is underscored by the fact that there are no examples of an unemployment rate rising between 0.5 and 2 percentage points from trough to peak at all. Once the unemployment rate has moved up modestly, it’s hard to stop. Thus, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections in September in which unemployment rises to 4.4% from its recent trough of 3.5% would be unprecedented.The episodes Powell has cited of successful soft landings—in 1965-66, 1984-85, and 1993-95—don’t apply to the current set of circumstances. In those cases, the Fed tightened and that slowed the pace of economic growth and the decline in the unemployment rate, but in none of those episodes did the Fed tighten sufficiently to push the unemployment rate up. In Fed parlance, these soft landings were achieved from above, by slowing the economy to a sustainable growth rate, rather than from below, by slowing the economy sufficiently to push the unemployment rate up.Fed risk management will also increase the likelihood of recession. Powell has made it clear that the consequences of failing to bring inflation back down to 2% on a sustainable basis are unacceptable. The lesson of the 1970s is that failure would lead to unanchored inflation expectations, making the job of restoring price stability that much more difficult.In addition, the Fed’s task will be made difficult by uncertainty about whether it has done enough. How high do short-term interest rates need to go to push the unemployment rate above the rate consistent with stable inflation? How long does such an unemployment rate need to be elevated to bring inflation back down to 2%? Because, at the margin, the negative consequences of doing too little exceed the negative consequences of doing too much, this means that monetary policy will likely ultimately be kept too tight for too long. The long and variable lags between changes in the stance of monetary policy and its effect on economic activity reinforce this.Some argue—including Fed officials—that a soft landing is still possible:• As supply chain disruptions dissipate and the allocation of demand between goods and services normalizes, headline inflation will fall sharply.• Labor supply will increase as labor force participation rises.• Fed tightening can reduce the excess demand for labor without generating a large rise in unemployment.Although one can’t dismiss these points out of hand, I’m afraid they’re likely to prove insufficient to avoid a hard landing.First, even if declining goods prices cause headline inflation to fall sharply in the year ahead, that doesn’t deal with the fact that the inflation problem has broadened out, into services prices and wages.The breadth of inflationary pressures is visible in the median consumer price index calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the trimmed mean personal consumption expenditures deflator—an alternative inflation measure calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas—with increases of 7% and 4.7%, respectively, over the past year. Those numbers capture what’s happening for those goods and services in the middle of the inflation distribution.Similarly, the trend of wage inflation is well above a rate consistent with 2% inflation. For example, the employment cost index for the wages and salaries of private industry workers has gone up 5.2% over the past year, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage tracker index is rising at a 6.4% annual rate. Given the trend of labor productivity, wage inflation needs to be in a 3%-to-4% range to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation objective.Second, on the labor supply front, the Fed is unlikely to be bailed out by a large increase in labor force participation. As labor economist Stephanie Aaronson noted in her remarks at this year’s Fed Jackson Hole conference: “The unemployment rate is the best gauge of the state of the business cycle.” Although a tight labor market can be expected to provoke a rise in labor force participation, she said, the process is a slow-moving one, playing out over several years, too slow a process to rescue the Fed.Third, the notion that the Fed’s monetary policy stringency can be oriented toward reducing the excess demand for labor without driving up unemployment materially is wishful thinking. Monetary policy can’t be targeted in such a way to reduce the demand for labor in industries where demand is excessive relative to industries where labor supply and demand is in better balance. It’s a blunt tool that affects the economy broadly through its impact on financial conditions.Although a soft landing would obviously be preferable, that ship has sailed. Today, a recession is virtually inevitable.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960074262,"gmtCreate":1668039059156,"gmtModify":1676538001659,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960074262","repostId":"2282956139","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987459688,"gmtCreate":1667970592444,"gmtModify":1676537992566,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"still buying more.","listText":"still buying more.","text":"still buying more.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987459688","repostId":"1119565865","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119565865","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667970397,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119565865?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-09 13:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: -11.48% After Earnings, And My Investment Thesis Is Changing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119565865","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMy investment thesis has changed now that Palantir Technologies Inc. is projecting its revenu","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>My investment thesis has changed now that Palantir Technologies Inc. is projecting its revenue growth in 2022 will be 23.29% rather than 30%+ in 2022.</li><li>Palantir Technologies has significantly declining margins and it is generating less cash from operations off more revenue, which is concerning.</li><li>I plan on adding to my position and dollar cost averaging, as Palantir has increased its customer base by 134 YoY and now has other positives, such as an interesting valuation.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f6cfa718e8398417ea21d2c4e2d8712\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Vi</span></p><p>I was very critical of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) after their Q2 earnings call in August, which was reflected in my article, where I went from bullish to neutral inthe blink of an eye. I indicated that I was still bullish on the company's business prospects, but was disappointed with how Alex Karp's (Palantir CEO) commentary and how he conducted himself. After listening to the conference call and reading through the presentation, press release, and Alex Karp's letter to shareholders, I believed there were many things to like, but the original thesis he outlined was changing.</p><p>Since 2022 isn't playing out according to plan, I need to take a step back and recalculate my projections. Thankfully, the Q3 conference call on 7 November went much better than Q2's, but the results weren't overwhelmingly good. For all of the powerful slides of information embedded within the presentation, the bottom line is that Palantir's revenue growth won't hit Alek Karp's projections, and their margins are being impacted. This is causing the narrative to change. PLTR could still become a great long-term investment, but in the short term, I think shareholders will need to endure unwanted volatility.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bce4c6da47a33baf858c7b09566bba8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><h2>The ugly part of Q3 and how it is making my projections change</h2><p>In Q2 of 2021, PLTR reinforced their long-term outlook of 30%+ revenue growth for 2021 and the next 4 years, bringing them through 2025. PLTR had projected that its 2021 Adjusted FCF (free cash flow) would exceed $300 million in 2021, which would be a 100% increase from its previous outlook. I dislike adjusted numbers and would rather look at straight FCF, which is cash from operations minus CapEx or purchases of property and equipment. In 2021, PLTR ended the year generating $1.54 billion in revenue and $321.22 million of FCF for an FCF margin of 20.83%.</p><p>I built a model based on PLTR's commentary and their 2021 FCF margin. In my model, which is below, I had PLTR's revenue grow by 30% through 2025, then drop down to 25%, 22%, 19%, 17%, and 15% from years 2026 - 2030. Based on 2021's FCF margin of 20.83%, if these revenue growth numbers were in the ballpark, PLTR would have generated $2.53 billion of FCF in 2030 from $12.16 billion of revenue. Based on a 25x FCF multiple, PLTR would have a $63.30 billion market cap; at a 35x multiple, PLTR would have an $88.62 billion market; and at a 45x multiple, PLTR would have a $113.94 billion market cap. While Q2 made me switch my view because I was worried about how PLTR would be perceived by potential customers, the future looked interesting as there was a clear roadmap to a much larger market cap into 2030 than PLTR had today. All of this ended after the Q3 2022 conference call, and I now need to build a new model.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83ae01fb83faa817f70110891f770c9b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"66\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Steven Fiorillo, Palantir, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d239d9dac695fda355bc570b6c2ea77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>I can no longer use the model I previously based my investment thesis around because PLTR's projections for revenue growth in 2022 have changed, and their margins have decreased significantly. PLTR is now guiding for $1.9 billion of revenue as its midpoint for the fiscal year of 2022. This is a YoY increase of $359.10 million, which is a 23.29% growth rate. The other issue is that PLTR's FCF margin has declined in the first 9-months of operations from 21.07% in 2021 to 7.86% in 2022. In the first 9 months of operations in 2021, PLTR generated $1.11 billion of revenue and $233.64 million of FCF for a 21.07% FCF margin. YTD over the first 9 months of 2022, PLR's revenue has increased by 25.99% YoY ($288.23 million) to $1.4 billion, but its cash from operations has declined by -$95.45 million (-39.70%), and their CapEx has increased by $28.33 million (417.60%), placing its FCF at $109.87 million. PLTR's FCF margin has declined by -13.20 percentage points to 7.86% from 21.07% YoY. As an investor, I need to readjust my investment thesis based on the new information and determine if 2022 is an anomaly or a new normal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d97f8eea6c89e38d0b039fe76b44b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>I built 2 models to see where PLTR's numbers could go. My original cash flow projection called for $2.53 billion of FCF from $12.16 billion of revenue in 2030 based on 2021's FCF margin, and my revenue assumptions extrapolated past the 2025 projection from PLTR. In model 1, I chalked 2022 up to an anomaly. If I keep the revenue growth rate the same from 2023-2030 and the FCF margin the same as my previous figures, PLTR will generate $10.2 billion of revenue and $2.12 billion of FCF in 2030.</p><p>In model 2, I made the assumption that PLTR's revenue growth is downhill from here, and the entire thesis needs to change. 2022 is now projected to be a 23.29% YoY revenue growth rate for PLTR, so I projected accordingly. Instead of 30% growth rates for 2023 - 2025 ,I placed them at 20%, 20%, and 18%. Then I scaled down to 16%, 14%, 12%, 10%, and 8% for years 2026 - 2030. I completely speculated on the FCF margin and placed it at 10% for 2022, and looked at a 15% FCF margin for 2030. Based on these projections, PLTR would generate $5.68 billion of revenue in 2030 and produce $852.54 million of FCF.</p><p>I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know which model is more accurate, but 2022 isn't what PLTR had hoped for, and it's certainly not what I had hoped for. PLTR is generating less cash from operations, and its margins are declining, especially its FCF margin. As an investor, I want to see as much cash and FCF generated from operations as possible, and if its revenue is increasing, I would hope that PLTR is generating additional cash from operations. There isn't enough data yet for me to lean in either direction, and I want to see how Q4 turns out and what the first half of 2023 looks like prior to making any decisions. While I still think PLTR has a lot of potential, its numbers have deflated my investment thesis, and I am not nearly as enthusiastic as I once was.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b01bc10374ca97fc6d7dd4f131c7aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Steven Fiorillo, Palantir, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c52c2f63ca61a261775c95bca20c753b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>The other aspect I am not thrilled about is PLTR's stock-based compensation ("SBCU"), but not for the reasons you may suspect. PLTR is a growth company and they are competing against Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL), and the rest of Silicon Valley for software engineers, in addition to every other company for quality salespeople. I would much rather have PLTR tap the equity markets and issue stock-based compensation to fuel its growth instead of tapping the debt markets. I am willing to undergo some dilution for this as many other successful companies, including Tesla (TSLA), have operated in this fashion.</p><p>The problem is that there is no clear picture of how stock-based compensation is awarded to its employees. We see the line items of where it's expensed to, but we don't know how it's distributed. In the first 9 months of operations in 2022, stock-based comp has declined -$175.91 million (-28.78%) to $435.40 million YoY, and in Q3, it declined by -$44.53 million (-24.09%) to $140.31 million YoY. While PLTR is utilizing stock-based comp less and less, operationally, PLTR isn't hitting its metrics. Revenue growth is slowing and is projected to come in at 23.29% rather than 30% YoY in 2022, and net dollar retention is stalled at 119% for 2 quarters in a row.</p><p>As a shareholder, I am fine with PLTR as a growth company utilizing stock-based compensation if it's beneficial to the bottom line. In this case, I am not seeing PLTR deliver operationally, while shareholders are diluted and employees are rewarded with additional shares.</p><h2>By the numbers, 2022 isn't what I had hoped it would be, Q3 earnings weren't entirely bad, and Palantir still has tremendous potential, but the real question is, can they capitalize?</h2><p>Businesses look toward testimonials and customer feedback to provide validation for their product or service. When it comes to enterprise software, real-world use cases and an A-list of clients are critical for future growth. Palantir has changed up its marketing strategy and put together an entire conference called FoundryCon, which was tailored to the U.S commercial market and open to shareholders, global customers, the press, and the general public. Following the opening fireside talk between Alex Karp and Mike Allen (Co-Founder of Axios), presentations from the U.S. Space Systems Command and the National Cancer Institute were delivered, in addition to remarks from companies that included Jacobs, Morgan Stanley, Apache, and Tyson Foods.</p><p>Tyson Foods CTO Scott Spradley discussed the strategic outcomes that were achieved through transforming their business and generating $200 million in savings across 20 projects. John Rickerman from Jacobs highlighted that they are on track to save $300,000 annually at one of their sites, which was a 20% savings, and they have 300 sites where the same process can be replicated at. Colonel Jennifer Krolikowski stated that 15,000 people would not have been able to be evacuated from Afghanistan without utilizing PLTR's software.</p><p>PLTR is driving efficiencies and cost benefits for the largest companies and critical government agencies. PLTR is also one of three companies, which includes Amazon (AMZN) and MSFT, that have IL6 Provisional Authorization from the DOD. PLTR's testimonials are from the largest and most respected entities, and this certainly has an impact on future clients.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/871aee443bc3808cd89c5fc1e4ba2514\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>Once again, Alek Karp put one of the most bullish slides in the Q3 shareholder letter rather than the Q3 presentation. Quite frankly, this slide is something many investors are probably overlooking, and it is critical for the bull thesis. On a TTM basis in Q3 2020, PLTR's new customer base declined by -29.41%, as they only generated 12 new customers vs. 17 in the year prior. PLTR wasn't a well-known company in 2020, and for those who knew of PLTR, the common perception was that they were a black box company specializing in platforms for the military-industrial complex.</p><p>PLTR didn't go public until the fall of 2020, and after they did, their new customer base exploded as more information about PLTR was circulated, and companies saw successful use cases from their industry peers. In 2021 PLTR added 49 additional new customers on a TTM basis in Q3, up 408.33% YoY, as they finished with 61 new customers. In Q3 of 2022, PLTR experienced a huge increase in new customers. PLTR's new customer base in Q3 of 2022 on a TTM basis grew by 119.67% or 73 new customers YoY to 134.</p><p>I wasn't thrilled with the net dollar retention being stuck at 119% for 2 consecutive quarters, but seeing the cohort growth in new customers, there will be plenty of chances to upsell customers and add additional functionality to their contracts. Over the last 2 years, PLTR has added 195 new customers, and while new customer growth has decelerated on a percentage basis, it has increased in size YoY. Based on the previous 2 years, PLTR could end up having 450-500 customers by this time next year. If PLTR replicates its 134 new customer growth over the next 12 months, it will put them at 471 customers.</p><p>I was very critical of PLTR's revenue growth and margins due to the level of stock-based compensation that has been issued, but there is certainly a thesis that the growth hasn't materialized from their newest customers, and 2022 is an anomaly year from a revenue and margin standpoint.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40a0de766ef9082a731f07346df7c55b\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>No matter how I look at it, PLTR is growing, even though revenue growth will fall short of PLTR's previous projections. Q3 revenue is up 22% YoY, and the U.S. business is still exploding, as it's up 31% YoY. In Q3 PLTR's total contract value closed at $1.3 billion, while they closed 78 deals worth a minimum of $1 million. Of these 78 deals, 32 were at least worth $5 million, and 19 exceeded $10 million. PLTR ended Q3, having closed 273 deals YTD, which is up 63% YoY from 167 in 2021, which drove its total remaining deal value up 14% YoY to $4.1 billion.</p><p>For all of the shortcomings, there are many aspects to build a bullish thesis around. I am not closing the door on PLTR as I can argue a bullish case to myself in the same fashion I can create a doom and gloom scenario. At the end of the day, PLTR has $2.4 billion of cash on the balance sheet with $0 of debt and is well capitalized for the future. PLTR doesn't have a single concern with rising rates impacting their expenses, and there is a path to profitability and large amounts of FCF in the future. The only questions are, will PLTR continue growing in a similar fashion, and will its new customer base eventually drive additional net dollar retention levels?</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>As a reformed PLTR bull, I am currently neutral on the company. I would need to see revenue get back to the 30%+ projection, margins improve, and expenses either stay in-line or decrease to get bullish again.</p><p>That being said, I am not bearish and find Palantir's current valuation interesting. I plan on adding more shares and dollar cost averaging, as I am not ready to call it a loss and put this investment in the tax-loss harvesting bucket. I need 3 more quarters of data before making a final decision on PLTR, as there is still a path to billions of FCF in 2030, but the current revenue and margin declines are certainly concerning. As PLTR's numbers have changed, so has my investment thesis, and I will anxiously be awaiting the Q4 earnings report.</p><p><i>This article is written by Steven Fiorillo for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: -11.48% After Earnings, And My Investment Thesis Is Changing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: -11.48% After Earnings, And My Investment Thesis Is Changing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 13:06 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554710-palantir-minus-11-48-percent-after-earnings-and-my-investment-thesis-is-changing><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMy investment thesis has changed now that Palantir Technologies Inc. is projecting its revenue growth in 2022 will be 23.29% rather than 30%+ in 2022.Palantir Technologies has significantly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554710-palantir-minus-11-48-percent-after-earnings-and-my-investment-thesis-is-changing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554710-palantir-minus-11-48-percent-after-earnings-and-my-investment-thesis-is-changing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119565865","content_text":"SummaryMy investment thesis has changed now that Palantir Technologies Inc. is projecting its revenue growth in 2022 will be 23.29% rather than 30%+ in 2022.Palantir Technologies has significantly declining margins and it is generating less cash from operations off more revenue, which is concerning.I plan on adding to my position and dollar cost averaging, as Palantir has increased its customer base by 134 YoY and now has other positives, such as an interesting valuation.Michael ViI was very critical of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) after their Q2 earnings call in August, which was reflected in my article, where I went from bullish to neutral inthe blink of an eye. I indicated that I was still bullish on the company's business prospects, but was disappointed with how Alex Karp's (Palantir CEO) commentary and how he conducted himself. After listening to the conference call and reading through the presentation, press release, and Alex Karp's letter to shareholders, I believed there were many things to like, but the original thesis he outlined was changing.Since 2022 isn't playing out according to plan, I need to take a step back and recalculate my projections. Thankfully, the Q3 conference call on 7 November went much better than Q2's, but the results weren't overwhelmingly good. For all of the powerful slides of information embedded within the presentation, the bottom line is that Palantir's revenue growth won't hit Alek Karp's projections, and their margins are being impacted. This is causing the narrative to change. PLTR could still become a great long-term investment, but in the short term, I think shareholders will need to endure unwanted volatility.Seeking AlphaThe ugly part of Q3 and how it is making my projections changeIn Q2 of 2021, PLTR reinforced their long-term outlook of 30%+ revenue growth for 2021 and the next 4 years, bringing them through 2025. PLTR had projected that its 2021 Adjusted FCF (free cash flow) would exceed $300 million in 2021, which would be a 100% increase from its previous outlook. I dislike adjusted numbers and would rather look at straight FCF, which is cash from operations minus CapEx or purchases of property and equipment. In 2021, PLTR ended the year generating $1.54 billion in revenue and $321.22 million of FCF for an FCF margin of 20.83%.I built a model based on PLTR's commentary and their 2021 FCF margin. In my model, which is below, I had PLTR's revenue grow by 30% through 2025, then drop down to 25%, 22%, 19%, 17%, and 15% from years 2026 - 2030. Based on 2021's FCF margin of 20.83%, if these revenue growth numbers were in the ballpark, PLTR would have generated $2.53 billion of FCF in 2030 from $12.16 billion of revenue. Based on a 25x FCF multiple, PLTR would have a $63.30 billion market cap; at a 35x multiple, PLTR would have an $88.62 billion market; and at a 45x multiple, PLTR would have a $113.94 billion market cap. While Q2 made me switch my view because I was worried about how PLTR would be perceived by potential customers, the future looked interesting as there was a clear roadmap to a much larger market cap into 2030 than PLTR had today. All of this ended after the Q3 2022 conference call, and I now need to build a new model.Steven Fiorillo, Palantir, Seeking AlphaPalantirI can no longer use the model I previously based my investment thesis around because PLTR's projections for revenue growth in 2022 have changed, and their margins have decreased significantly. PLTR is now guiding for $1.9 billion of revenue as its midpoint for the fiscal year of 2022. This is a YoY increase of $359.10 million, which is a 23.29% growth rate. The other issue is that PLTR's FCF margin has declined in the first 9-months of operations from 21.07% in 2021 to 7.86% in 2022. In the first 9 months of operations in 2021, PLTR generated $1.11 billion of revenue and $233.64 million of FCF for a 21.07% FCF margin. YTD over the first 9 months of 2022, PLR's revenue has increased by 25.99% YoY ($288.23 million) to $1.4 billion, but its cash from operations has declined by -$95.45 million (-39.70%), and their CapEx has increased by $28.33 million (417.60%), placing its FCF at $109.87 million. PLTR's FCF margin has declined by -13.20 percentage points to 7.86% from 21.07% YoY. As an investor, I need to readjust my investment thesis based on the new information and determine if 2022 is an anomaly or a new normal.PalantirI built 2 models to see where PLTR's numbers could go. My original cash flow projection called for $2.53 billion of FCF from $12.16 billion of revenue in 2030 based on 2021's FCF margin, and my revenue assumptions extrapolated past the 2025 projection from PLTR. In model 1, I chalked 2022 up to an anomaly. If I keep the revenue growth rate the same from 2023-2030 and the FCF margin the same as my previous figures, PLTR will generate $10.2 billion of revenue and $2.12 billion of FCF in 2030.In model 2, I made the assumption that PLTR's revenue growth is downhill from here, and the entire thesis needs to change. 2022 is now projected to be a 23.29% YoY revenue growth rate for PLTR, so I projected accordingly. Instead of 30% growth rates for 2023 - 2025 ,I placed them at 20%, 20%, and 18%. Then I scaled down to 16%, 14%, 12%, 10%, and 8% for years 2026 - 2030. I completely speculated on the FCF margin and placed it at 10% for 2022, and looked at a 15% FCF margin for 2030. Based on these projections, PLTR would generate $5.68 billion of revenue in 2030 and produce $852.54 million of FCF.I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know which model is more accurate, but 2022 isn't what PLTR had hoped for, and it's certainly not what I had hoped for. PLTR is generating less cash from operations, and its margins are declining, especially its FCF margin. As an investor, I want to see as much cash and FCF generated from operations as possible, and if its revenue is increasing, I would hope that PLTR is generating additional cash from operations. There isn't enough data yet for me to lean in either direction, and I want to see how Q4 turns out and what the first half of 2023 looks like prior to making any decisions. While I still think PLTR has a lot of potential, its numbers have deflated my investment thesis, and I am not nearly as enthusiastic as I once was.Steven Fiorillo, Palantir, Seeking AlphaPalantirThe other aspect I am not thrilled about is PLTR's stock-based compensation (\"SBCU\"), but not for the reasons you may suspect. PLTR is a growth company and they are competing against Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL), and the rest of Silicon Valley for software engineers, in addition to every other company for quality salespeople. I would much rather have PLTR tap the equity markets and issue stock-based compensation to fuel its growth instead of tapping the debt markets. I am willing to undergo some dilution for this as many other successful companies, including Tesla (TSLA), have operated in this fashion.The problem is that there is no clear picture of how stock-based compensation is awarded to its employees. We see the line items of where it's expensed to, but we don't know how it's distributed. In the first 9 months of operations in 2022, stock-based comp has declined -$175.91 million (-28.78%) to $435.40 million YoY, and in Q3, it declined by -$44.53 million (-24.09%) to $140.31 million YoY. While PLTR is utilizing stock-based comp less and less, operationally, PLTR isn't hitting its metrics. Revenue growth is slowing and is projected to come in at 23.29% rather than 30% YoY in 2022, and net dollar retention is stalled at 119% for 2 quarters in a row.As a shareholder, I am fine with PLTR as a growth company utilizing stock-based compensation if it's beneficial to the bottom line. In this case, I am not seeing PLTR deliver operationally, while shareholders are diluted and employees are rewarded with additional shares.By the numbers, 2022 isn't what I had hoped it would be, Q3 earnings weren't entirely bad, and Palantir still has tremendous potential, but the real question is, can they capitalize?Businesses look toward testimonials and customer feedback to provide validation for their product or service. When it comes to enterprise software, real-world use cases and an A-list of clients are critical for future growth. Palantir has changed up its marketing strategy and put together an entire conference called FoundryCon, which was tailored to the U.S commercial market and open to shareholders, global customers, the press, and the general public. Following the opening fireside talk between Alex Karp and Mike Allen (Co-Founder of Axios), presentations from the U.S. Space Systems Command and the National Cancer Institute were delivered, in addition to remarks from companies that included Jacobs, Morgan Stanley, Apache, and Tyson Foods.Tyson Foods CTO Scott Spradley discussed the strategic outcomes that were achieved through transforming their business and generating $200 million in savings across 20 projects. John Rickerman from Jacobs highlighted that they are on track to save $300,000 annually at one of their sites, which was a 20% savings, and they have 300 sites where the same process can be replicated at. Colonel Jennifer Krolikowski stated that 15,000 people would not have been able to be evacuated from Afghanistan without utilizing PLTR's software.PLTR is driving efficiencies and cost benefits for the largest companies and critical government agencies. PLTR is also one of three companies, which includes Amazon (AMZN) and MSFT, that have IL6 Provisional Authorization from the DOD. PLTR's testimonials are from the largest and most respected entities, and this certainly has an impact on future clients.PalantirOnce again, Alek Karp put one of the most bullish slides in the Q3 shareholder letter rather than the Q3 presentation. Quite frankly, this slide is something many investors are probably overlooking, and it is critical for the bull thesis. On a TTM basis in Q3 2020, PLTR's new customer base declined by -29.41%, as they only generated 12 new customers vs. 17 in the year prior. PLTR wasn't a well-known company in 2020, and for those who knew of PLTR, the common perception was that they were a black box company specializing in platforms for the military-industrial complex.PLTR didn't go public until the fall of 2020, and after they did, their new customer base exploded as more information about PLTR was circulated, and companies saw successful use cases from their industry peers. In 2021 PLTR added 49 additional new customers on a TTM basis in Q3, up 408.33% YoY, as they finished with 61 new customers. In Q3 of 2022, PLTR experienced a huge increase in new customers. PLTR's new customer base in Q3 of 2022 on a TTM basis grew by 119.67% or 73 new customers YoY to 134.I wasn't thrilled with the net dollar retention being stuck at 119% for 2 consecutive quarters, but seeing the cohort growth in new customers, there will be plenty of chances to upsell customers and add additional functionality to their contracts. Over the last 2 years, PLTR has added 195 new customers, and while new customer growth has decelerated on a percentage basis, it has increased in size YoY. Based on the previous 2 years, PLTR could end up having 450-500 customers by this time next year. If PLTR replicates its 134 new customer growth over the next 12 months, it will put them at 471 customers.I was very critical of PLTR's revenue growth and margins due to the level of stock-based compensation that has been issued, but there is certainly a thesis that the growth hasn't materialized from their newest customers, and 2022 is an anomaly year from a revenue and margin standpoint.PalantirNo matter how I look at it, PLTR is growing, even though revenue growth will fall short of PLTR's previous projections. Q3 revenue is up 22% YoY, and the U.S. business is still exploding, as it's up 31% YoY. In Q3 PLTR's total contract value closed at $1.3 billion, while they closed 78 deals worth a minimum of $1 million. Of these 78 deals, 32 were at least worth $5 million, and 19 exceeded $10 million. PLTR ended Q3, having closed 273 deals YTD, which is up 63% YoY from 167 in 2021, which drove its total remaining deal value up 14% YoY to $4.1 billion.For all of the shortcomings, there are many aspects to build a bullish thesis around. I am not closing the door on PLTR as I can argue a bullish case to myself in the same fashion I can create a doom and gloom scenario. At the end of the day, PLTR has $2.4 billion of cash on the balance sheet with $0 of debt and is well capitalized for the future. PLTR doesn't have a single concern with rising rates impacting their expenses, and there is a path to profitability and large amounts of FCF in the future. The only questions are, will PLTR continue growing in a similar fashion, and will its new customer base eventually drive additional net dollar retention levels?ConclusionAs a reformed PLTR bull, I am currently neutral on the company. I would need to see revenue get back to the 30%+ projection, margins improve, and expenses either stay in-line or decrease to get bullish again.That being said, I am not bearish and find Palantir's current valuation interesting. I plan on adding more shares and dollar cost averaging, as I am not ready to call it a loss and put this investment in the tax-loss harvesting bucket. I need 3 more quarters of data before making a final decision on PLTR, as there is still a path to billions of FCF in 2030, but the current revenue and margin declines are certainly concerning. As PLTR's numbers have changed, so has my investment thesis, and I will anxiously be awaiting the Q4 earnings report.This article is written by Steven Fiorillo for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579095725705542","authorId":"3579095725705542","name":"Louis7779","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579095725705542","idStr":"3579095725705542"},"content":"Pls like my post thanks","text":"Pls like my post thanks","html":"Pls like my post thanks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987069958,"gmtCreate":1667779720475,"gmtModify":1676537961169,"author":{"id":"4092135148477260","authorId":"4092135148477260","name":"caos","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39ceb9524a0e11632d05b9487dfeb0ca","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092135148477260","idStr":"4092135148477260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"huat","listText":"huat","text":"huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987069958","repostId":"1163057400","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163057400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667779473,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163057400?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 08:04","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stock Market Tipped To Open In The Green","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163057400","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market rebounded on Friday, one day after ending the seven-day winning streak in","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Singapore stock market rebounded on Friday, one day after ending the seven-day winning streak in which it had surged more than 170 points or 5.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,130-point plateau and it's likely to open higher again on Monday.</p><p>The global forecast for the Asian markets is upbeat following stronger than expected employment data from the United States. The European and U.S. markets were solidly higher and the Asian bourses are tipped to follow suit.</p><p>The STI finished modestly higher on Friday following gains from the financials, properties and industrials.</p><p>For the day, the index advanced 27.60 points or 0.89 percent to finish at 3,130.11 after trading between 3,098.72 and 3,134.30. Volume was 1.65 billion shares worth 1.26 billion Singapore dollars. There were 347 gainers and 218 decliners.</p><p>Among the actives, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust gained 0.54 percent, while CapitaLand Investment skyrocketed 5.59 percent, City Developments rallied 1.43 percent, DBS Group and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding both increased 0.79 percent, Emperador climbed 1.05 percent, Genting Singapore added 0.62 percent, Hongkong Land spiked 2.21 percent, Keppel Corp strengthened 1.14 percent, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust lost 0.64 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust improved 0.93 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.75 percent, SATS sank 0.74 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.70 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering fell 0.30 percent, SingTel rose 0.40 percent, Thai Beverage accelerated 1.75 percent, United Overseas Bank jumped 1.36 percent, Wilmar International advanced 1.02 percent, Yangzijiang Financial and DFI Retail both soared 3.08 percent and Ascendas REIT, Comfort DelGro and Mapletree Logistics Trust were unchanged.</p><p>The lead from Wall Street is upbeat as the major averages opened sharply higher on Friday, faded midday but bounced higher again late in the session.</p><p>The Dow surged 402.02 points or 1.26 percent to finish at 32,403.22, while the NASDAQ jumped 132.35 points or 1.28 percent to close at 10,475.25 and the S&P 500 climbed 50.66 points or 1.36 percent to end at 3,770.55.</p><p>For the week, the NASDAQ plummeted 5.7 percent, the S&P tumbled 3.4 percent and the Dow dropped 1.4 percent.</p><p>The volatility followed the release of the Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report for October.</p><p>The report showed non-farm payroll employment jumped by 261,000 jobs in October after surging by an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in September.</p><p>The report generated a mixed reaction among traders, creating uncertainty about the outlook for future interest rate hikes.</p><p>Crude oil prices climbed higher Friday amid easing concerns about the outlook for energy demand. A weak dollar and fears of a ban by the European Union on Russian oil also supported crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended higher by $4.44 or 5 percent at $92.61 a barrel.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stock Market Tipped To Open In The Green</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stock Market Tipped To Open In The Green\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 08:04 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.rttnews.com/3323610/singapore-stock-market-tipped-to-open-in-the-green.aspx?type=acom><strong>RTTNews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Singapore stock market rebounded on Friday, one day after ending the seven-day winning streak in which it had surged more than 170 points or 5.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now rests just ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3323610/singapore-stock-market-tipped-to-open-in-the-green.aspx?type=acom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3323610/singapore-stock-market-tipped-to-open-in-the-green.aspx?type=acom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163057400","content_text":"The Singapore stock market rebounded on Friday, one day after ending the seven-day winning streak in which it had surged more than 170 points or 5.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,130-point plateau and it's likely to open higher again on Monday.The global forecast for the Asian markets is upbeat following stronger than expected employment data from the United States. The European and U.S. markets were solidly higher and the Asian bourses are tipped to follow suit.The STI finished modestly higher on Friday following gains from the financials, properties and industrials.For the day, the index advanced 27.60 points or 0.89 percent to finish at 3,130.11 after trading between 3,098.72 and 3,134.30. Volume was 1.65 billion shares worth 1.26 billion Singapore dollars. There were 347 gainers and 218 decliners.Among the actives, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust gained 0.54 percent, while CapitaLand Investment skyrocketed 5.59 percent, City Developments rallied 1.43 percent, DBS Group and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding both increased 0.79 percent, Emperador climbed 1.05 percent, Genting Singapore added 0.62 percent, Hongkong Land spiked 2.21 percent, Keppel Corp strengthened 1.14 percent, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust lost 0.64 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust improved 0.93 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.75 percent, SATS sank 0.74 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.70 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering fell 0.30 percent, SingTel rose 0.40 percent, Thai Beverage accelerated 1.75 percent, United Overseas Bank jumped 1.36 percent, Wilmar International advanced 1.02 percent, Yangzijiang Financial and DFI Retail both soared 3.08 percent and Ascendas REIT, Comfort DelGro and Mapletree Logistics Trust were unchanged.The lead from Wall Street is upbeat as the major averages opened sharply higher on Friday, faded midday but bounced higher again late in the session.The Dow surged 402.02 points or 1.26 percent to finish at 32,403.22, while the NASDAQ jumped 132.35 points or 1.28 percent to close at 10,475.25 and the S&P 500 climbed 50.66 points or 1.36 percent to end at 3,770.55.For the week, the NASDAQ plummeted 5.7 percent, the S&P tumbled 3.4 percent and the Dow dropped 1.4 percent.The volatility followed the release of the Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report for October.The report showed non-farm payroll employment jumped by 261,000 jobs in October after surging by an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in September.The report generated a mixed reaction among traders, creating uncertainty about the outlook for future interest rate hikes.Crude oil prices climbed higher Friday amid easing concerns about the outlook for energy demand. A weak dollar and fears of a ban by the European Union on Russian oil also supported crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended higher by $4.44 or 5 percent at $92.61 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}