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- siong516siong516
  ·2023-03-27
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  @美丽的花雨：
  寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上
  寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺寂靜嶺近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上近期指數一應該都回會上
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- siong516siong516
  ·2022-12-02
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  How much waves will the non-farm payrolls make tonight? Bad news is good news, but too bad news is not necessarily!
  如果非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；但结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，若非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退。在美联储激进加息之下，美国劳动力市场换入“低速
  How much waves will the non-farm payrolls make tonight? Bad news is good news, but too bad news is not necessarily!
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Bad news is good news, but too bad news is not necessarily!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119372762","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；但结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，若非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退。在美联储激进加息之下，美国劳动力市场换入“低速","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If non-farm employment growth slows down as expected, it will encourage the Fed's dovish attitude, and U.S. stocks may usher in a rise; However, combined with the contraction of the U.S. manufacturing index, if the non-agricultural data is unexpectedly \"upset\", it will mean that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession. Under the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. labor market has shifted into a \"low gear\", but at the same time it seems to be more resilient. U.S. non-farm employment growth is expected to cool further in November and is expected to hit the lowest level in nearly two years, while wage pressure is difficult to reduce and the unemployment rate may remain low.</p><p>Recently, news of layoffs in the U.S. technology industry has been overwhelming, and multiple indicators show that the job market is cooling. At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release a non-agricultural report that has attracted much attention from the market to reveal the latest status of the U.S. labor market. Economists generally expect:</p><p><b>New non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 200,000 in November, the smallest monthly increase since the end of 2020.</b>In October, it increased by 261,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. The labor force participation rate is expected to be 62.3%, a slight increase from the previous value of 62.2%. The average hourly wage is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, which is similar to the average growth rate since the end of 2021. The previous value was 0.4%, and the average hourly wage is expected to drop from 4.7% in October to 4.6% year-on-year. If the non-farm employment growth announced tonight slows down as expected, it will encourage the Fed's dovish attitude, and U.S. stocks may usher in a rise; Combined with the contraction of the U.S. manufacturing index, if the non-agricultural data is unexpectedly \"upset\", it will mean that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession; But if wage growth rises more than expected, the market will see a more hawkish Fed.</p><p>The latest non-agricultural outlook report released by 23 large investment banks shows that non-agricultural employment growth will further decline in November, but the growth expectations among investment banks are quite different.<b>The number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in November is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.5% and 3.8%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is expected to be between 4.6% and 4.7% year-on-year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72153025bd4105555750862e05524043\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>There are obvious signs of cooling in the job market, and new non-agricultural additions are expected to hit a new low in the past two years</p><p><b>Economists expect the United States to create 200,000 new non-agricultural jobs in November, down from 261,000 in October and the smallest since the end of 2020, but still exceeding pre-epidemic levels.</b></p><p>Barclays analysis pointed out that private sector employment has declined even faster, from 233,000 in October to 150,000. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy will have an increased impact on labor demand, and the overall average non-agricultural employment growth in the fourth quarter About 180,000 people.</p><p>Small non-farm payrolls ADP upset, job vacancy rate dropped, new jobless claims hit a new high, business confidence deteriorated sharply......<b>Many previously published data indicators indicate that the growth momentum of the U.S. labor market is further slowing down. Specifically:</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the number of new jobs at ADP, known as the \"small non-farm payrolls\", fell short of expectations, hitting the lowest level since January 2021, and wage growth began to slow down. On Wednesday, former Federal Reserve Chair Yellen's favorite JOLTS data showed that U.S. job vacancies fell in October, with the voluntary turnover rate falling to 2.6%, the lowest level since May 2021, and total hiring numbers falling to the lowest level since January 2021. On Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States quadrupled year-on-year in November, with technology companies laying off the most violently. On Thursday, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose to its highest level since February this year, and the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims edged up to 228,750. It is worth mentioning that as the uncertainty of the economic outlook increases, many companies have started to lay off employees and freeze hiring. Several companies in sectors including technology, finance and real estate have announced thousands of job cuts in recent months, with employers announcing 76,835 job cuts in November, more than double the number in October, according to a report by consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said the November non-farm payrolls report is more likely to see an unexpected decline. She pointed out that the number of workers taking leave due to illness may continue to be a trigger, and more companies have announced hiring freezes. Retail is usually the highlight in November, but there are signs that,<b>Job growth in retail isn't as fast as usual this holiday season.</b></p><p>But at the same time, some analysts are optimistic. Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, pointed out that there should be a directional slowdown in non-farm payrolls, but it is still expected to be quite good. Gapen said he would pay close attention to the construction industry to see if there are more unemployment in this field.</p><p>Rising wage pressure unabated, unemployment rate remains low</p><p><b>Meanwhile, the labor market remains tight, with wage pressures near the average rate since late 2021, and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7%, still near a 50-year low.</b></p><p><b>Specifically, the average hourly wage is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate will remain at 4.7%, slowing down from the peak of 5.6% earlier this year.</b></p><p>Additionally, private sector wage growth rose 5.2% in the 12 months to September, down from 5.7% in the previous quarter but still at the highest level on record, according to U.S. government Employment Cost Index data. The Atlanta Fed's wage growth tracker dropped slightly from a record 6.7% last summer, but remained at 6.4%.</p><p>But it's clear that this is still some distance from the Fed's desire to see wage growth slow to the pre-pandemic 2% to 3%. Clearly, strong wage growth is a good thing, but for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation, Powell noted in a speech at the Brookings Institution.</p><p><b>In terms of unemployment, the unemployment rate has been volatile over the past few months, rising unexpectedly to 3.7% in October and is expected to remain at 3.7% for the second consecutive month, near a 50-year low.</b></p><p>However, if the unemployment rate continues to rise in November, it will sound alarm bells for recession watchers. As the rate hike continues, it will slow economic growth and trigger more layoffs. The Federal Reserve previously predicted that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% next year, but now some officials say the unemployment rate may rise to nearly 5%.</p><p>Overall, Nomura pointed out that despite slowing hiring and turnover, the labor market remains tight, with the vacancy and unemployment rate (VU) falling slightly from 1.86 in September to 1.71 in October, but still well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c5ada2d42ba251f3d31aceaac65000\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Regarding the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), which is currently stagnant at around 62%, meaning that only 62 out of every 100 people aged 16 or older are or are looking for work, will rise slightly to 62.3% in November. Nomura sees a stronger recovery in labor supply as one of the few paths for the Fed to achieve a soft landing.</p><p>Consolidate expectations for slowing down in rate hike</p><p>The cooling of the labor market will consolidate the Fed's expectation of slowing down the pace of rate hike in December, but more importantly, how to affect terminal interest rates.</p><p>Oxford economists pointed out that job growth is likely to continue to slow in November,<b>It is expected to consolidate the expectation of slowing down the pace of rate hike.</b>If the trend of slowing down in the U.S. job market is too obvious, it may affect the market's bets on terminal interest rates next year. Upward wage growth will see traders bet on a more hawkish Fed and, conversely, lead to a dovish reaction.</p><p>For the Federal Reserve, the cooling of the job market is good news. The tight labor market will put upward pressure on wages, which will lead to higher price levels. The Federal Reserve has previously hinted that it will slow down the pace and magnitude of rate hike in December.</p><p>But the current cooling rate does not seem to satisfy the Fed. Powell pointed out in his speech that job vacancies exceed the existing workers by about 4 million, that is, there are about 1.7 job vacancies for every person looking for a job. So far, only initial signs of easing labor demand have been seen. The Fed's goal is that the economy only needs to add about 100,000 new jobs every month.</p><p>How will U.S. stocks perform tonight?</p><p>Goldman Sachs trader John Flood pointed out that it is still mainly in a state of \"bad news is good news\", but it is nearing the end of this state. After Powell's speech yesterday, there is now more talk about \"growth/recession issues\" than \"how much interest rates can be raised\". Specifically, John Flood predicts:</p><p><ul><li>> 261,000: S&P fell at least 2%;</li><li>175,000-261,000: S&P fell 1-2%;</li><li>12.5 k-175k: S&P up 0.5%-1%;</li><li>0-125,000: S&P rose 1-2%;</li><li>< 0: S&P down 1-2% on \"recession\" fear;</li></ul>The Morgan Stanley sales team pointed out that given that the recent unexpected decline in CPI has shown a slowdown in inflation, the non-agricultural data is not expected to make much waves. Its conclusion is:</p><p><ul><li>The best range is 100,000-125,000, which will allow the Fed to slow down the pace of rate hike;</li><li>< 25,000: It is not good for U.S. stocks, and the non-agricultural slowdown is too fast;</li><li>> 250,000: The Fed will be more hawkish in the December rate hike, and the \"75 basis points\" rate hike is expected to be rekindled.</li></ul></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much waves will the non-farm payrolls make tonight? Bad news is good news, but too bad news is not necessarily!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow much waves will the non-farm payrolls make tonight? Bad news is good news, but too bad news is not necessarily!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 18:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If non-farm employment growth slows down as expected, it will encourage the Fed's dovish attitude, and U.S. stocks may usher in a rise; However, combined with the contraction of the U.S. manufacturing index, if the non-agricultural data is unexpectedly \"upset\", it will mean that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession. Under the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. labor market has shifted into a \"low gear\", but at the same time it seems to be more resilient. U.S. non-farm employment growth is expected to cool further in November and is expected to hit the lowest level in nearly two years, while wage pressure is difficult to reduce and the unemployment rate may remain low.</p><p>Recently, news of layoffs in the U.S. technology industry has been overwhelming, and multiple indicators show that the job market is cooling. At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release a non-agricultural report that has attracted much attention from the market to reveal the latest status of the U.S. labor market. Economists generally expect:</p><p><b>New non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 200,000 in November, the smallest monthly increase since the end of 2020.</b>In October, it increased by 261,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. The labor force participation rate is expected to be 62.3%, a slight increase from the previous value of 62.2%. The average hourly wage is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, which is similar to the average growth rate since the end of 2021. The previous value was 0.4%, and the average hourly wage is expected to drop from 4.7% in October to 4.6% year-on-year. If the non-farm employment growth announced tonight slows down as expected, it will encourage the Fed's dovish attitude, and U.S. stocks may usher in a rise; Combined with the contraction of the U.S. manufacturing index, if the non-agricultural data is unexpectedly \"upset\", it will mean that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession; But if wage growth rises more than expected, the market will see a more hawkish Fed.</p><p>The latest non-agricultural outlook report released by 23 large investment banks shows that non-agricultural employment growth will further decline in November, but the growth expectations among investment banks are quite different.<b>The number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in November is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.5% and 3.8%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is expected to be between 4.6% and 4.7% year-on-year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72153025bd4105555750862e05524043\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>There are obvious signs of cooling in the job market, and new non-agricultural additions are expected to hit a new low in the past two years</p><p><b>Economists expect the United States to create 200,000 new non-agricultural jobs in November, down from 261,000 in October and the smallest since the end of 2020, but still exceeding pre-epidemic levels.</b></p><p>Barclays analysis pointed out that private sector employment has declined even faster, from 233,000 in October to 150,000. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy will have an increased impact on labor demand, and the overall average non-agricultural employment growth in the fourth quarter About 180,000 people.</p><p>Small non-farm payrolls ADP upset, job vacancy rate dropped, new jobless claims hit a new high, business confidence deteriorated sharply......<b>Many previously published data indicators indicate that the growth momentum of the U.S. labor market is further slowing down. Specifically:</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the number of new jobs at ADP, known as the \"small non-farm payrolls\", fell short of expectations, hitting the lowest level since January 2021, and wage growth began to slow down. On Wednesday, former Federal Reserve Chair Yellen's favorite JOLTS data showed that U.S. job vacancies fell in October, with the voluntary turnover rate falling to 2.6%, the lowest level since May 2021, and total hiring numbers falling to the lowest level since January 2021. On Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States quadrupled year-on-year in November, with technology companies laying off the most violently. On Thursday, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose to its highest level since February this year, and the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims edged up to 228,750. It is worth mentioning that as the uncertainty of the economic outlook increases, many companies have started to lay off employees and freeze hiring. Several companies in sectors including technology, finance and real estate have announced thousands of job cuts in recent months, with employers announcing 76,835 job cuts in November, more than double the number in October, according to a report by consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said the November non-farm payrolls report is more likely to see an unexpected decline. She pointed out that the number of workers taking leave due to illness may continue to be a trigger, and more companies have announced hiring freezes. Retail is usually the highlight in November, but there are signs that,<b>Job growth in retail isn't as fast as usual this holiday season.</b></p><p>But at the same time, some analysts are optimistic. Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, pointed out that there should be a directional slowdown in non-farm payrolls, but it is still expected to be quite good. Gapen said he would pay close attention to the construction industry to see if there are more unemployment in this field.</p><p>Rising wage pressure unabated, unemployment rate remains low</p><p><b>Meanwhile, the labor market remains tight, with wage pressures near the average rate since late 2021, and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7%, still near a 50-year low.</b></p><p><b>Specifically, the average hourly wage is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate will remain at 4.7%, slowing down from the peak of 5.6% earlier this year.</b></p><p>Additionally, private sector wage growth rose 5.2% in the 12 months to September, down from 5.7% in the previous quarter but still at the highest level on record, according to U.S. government Employment Cost Index data. The Atlanta Fed's wage growth tracker dropped slightly from a record 6.7% last summer, but remained at 6.4%.</p><p>But it's clear that this is still some distance from the Fed's desire to see wage growth slow to the pre-pandemic 2% to 3%. Clearly, strong wage growth is a good thing, but for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation, Powell noted in a speech at the Brookings Institution.</p><p><b>In terms of unemployment, the unemployment rate has been volatile over the past few months, rising unexpectedly to 3.7% in October and is expected to remain at 3.7% for the second consecutive month, near a 50-year low.</b></p><p>However, if the unemployment rate continues to rise in November, it will sound alarm bells for recession watchers. As the rate hike continues, it will slow economic growth and trigger more layoffs. The Federal Reserve previously predicted that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% next year, but now some officials say the unemployment rate may rise to nearly 5%.</p><p>Overall, Nomura pointed out that despite slowing hiring and turnover, the labor market remains tight, with the vacancy and unemployment rate (VU) falling slightly from 1.86 in September to 1.71 in October, but still well above pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c5ada2d42ba251f3d31aceaac65000\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Regarding the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), which is currently stagnant at around 62%, meaning that only 62 out of every 100 people aged 16 or older are or are looking for work, will rise slightly to 62.3% in November. Nomura sees a stronger recovery in labor supply as one of the few paths for the Fed to achieve a soft landing.</p><p>Consolidate expectations for slowing down in rate hike</p><p>The cooling of the labor market will consolidate the Fed's expectation of slowing down the pace of rate hike in December, but more importantly, how to affect terminal interest rates.</p><p>Oxford economists pointed out that job growth is likely to continue to slow in November,<b>It is expected to consolidate the expectation of slowing down the pace of rate hike.</b>If the trend of slowing down in the U.S. job market is too obvious, it may affect the market's bets on terminal interest rates next year. Upward wage growth will see traders bet on a more hawkish Fed and, conversely, lead to a dovish reaction.</p><p>For the Federal Reserve, the cooling of the job market is good news. The tight labor market will put upward pressure on wages, which will lead to higher price levels. The Federal Reserve has previously hinted that it will slow down the pace and magnitude of rate hike in December.</p><p>But the current cooling rate does not seem to satisfy the Fed. Powell pointed out in his speech that job vacancies exceed the existing workers by about 4 million, that is, there are about 1.7 job vacancies for every person looking for a job. So far, only initial signs of easing labor demand have been seen. The Fed's goal is that the economy only needs to add about 100,000 new jobs every month.</p><p>How will U.S. stocks perform tonight?</p><p>Goldman Sachs trader John Flood pointed out that it is still mainly in a state of \"bad news is good news\", but it is nearing the end of this state. After Powell's speech yesterday, there is now more talk about \"growth/recession issues\" than \"how much interest rates can be raised\". Specifically, John Flood predicts:</p><p><ul><li>> 261,000: S&P fell at least 2%;</li><li>175,000-261,000: S&P fell 1-2%;</li><li>12.5 k-175k: S&P up 0.5%-1%;</li><li>0-125,000: S&P rose 1-2%;</li><li>< 0: S&P down 1-2% on \"recession\" fear;</li></ul>The Morgan Stanley sales team pointed out that given that the recent unexpected decline in CPI has shown a slowdown in inflation, the non-agricultural data is not expected to make much waves. Its conclusion is:</p><p><ul><li>The best range is 100,000-125,000, which will allow the Fed to slow down the pace of rate hike;</li><li>< 25,000: It is not good for U.S. stocks, and the non-agricultural slowdown is too fast;</li><li>> 250,000: The Fed will be more hawkish in the December rate hike, and the \"75 basis points\" rate hike is expected to be rekindled.</li></ul></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676498\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676498","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119372762","content_text":"如果非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；但结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，若非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退。在美联储激进加息之下，美国劳动力市场换入“低速挡”，但同时似乎也更具韧性。美国11月非农就业增长预计进一步降温，料创下近两年最低水平，而工资压力难减，失业率或维持在低位。近期，美国科技行业裁员消息铺天盖地，多个指标显示就业市场正在降温。北京时间周五21:30，美国劳工部将发布备受市场关注的非农报告，揭晓美国劳动力市场最新现状。经济学家普遍预计：11月新增非农就业人数预计将增加20万，创2020年底以来最小月度增幅，10月为增加26.1万。失业率预计保持在3.7%。劳动力参与率预计为62.3%，较前值62.2%微幅上升。平均时薪环比预计上升0.3%，与2021年末以来的平均增速相近，前值为0.4%，平均时薪同比预计从10月的4.7%降至4.6%。如果今晚公布的非农就业增长如预期一样放缓，将助长美联储鸽派态度，美股或迎来上涨；而结合美国制造业指数陷入萎缩，如果非农数据意外“爆冷”，将意味着美国经济正在滑向衰退；但若工资增长超预期上行，市场将看到一个更鹰派的美联储。23家大型投行发布的最新非农前瞻报告显示，11月非农就业增长将进一步下滑，但投行之间的增幅预期差异较大。美国11月非农新增就业人数预计介于15万-24万，失业率预计介于3.5%-3.8%，平均时薪同比增速预计介于4.6%-4.7%。就业市场降温迹象明显 非农新增料创近两年新低经济学家预计，美国11月份非农新增就业20万人，低于10月份的26.1万，为2020年年底以来最小规模，但仍超过疫情前的水平。巴克莱分析指出，私营部门就业人数的下降速度更快，从10月份的23.3万人降至15万人，预计美联储收紧货币政策对劳动力需求的影响加大，四季度非农整体平均就业增长约18万人。小非农ADP爆冷、职位空缺率下降、续请失业金人数创新高、商业信心大幅恶化......先前公布的众多数据指标都表明美国劳动力市场增长势头正进一步放缓，具体来看：周三，有“小非农”之称的ADP新增就业人数不及预期，创下2021年1月以来的最低水平，工资增速也开始放缓。周三，前美联储主席耶伦最喜欢的JOLTS数据显示，美国10月职位空缺下降，自主离职率降至2.6%，为2021年5月以来的最低水平，总招聘人数降至2021年1月以来的最低。周四，美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数同比暴增四倍，其中科技公司裁员最为猛烈。周四，美国续请失业救济金的人数升至今年2月以来的最高水平，首次申请失业救济人数的四周移动平均值小幅上涨至22.875万人。值得一提的是，随着经济前景的不确定性增加，众多企业开启裁员并冻结招聘。近几个月，科技、金融和房地产等行业的多家公司宣布裁员数千人，根据咨询公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.的报告，11月份雇主宣布裁员76835人，是10月份的两倍多。毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，11月的非农报告更有可能出现意外下滑。她指出，因病请假的工人人数可能继续成为的一个触发因素，而且已经有更多公司宣布冻结招聘。零售业通常是11月的亮点，但有迹象显示，这个节日季零售业的就业增长没有往常那么快。但同时也有分析师持乐观态度，美国银行首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen指出，非农应该会出现方向性放缓，但预计仍会相当不错，Gapen称将密切关注建筑业，看看该领域是否出现更多失业。工资上涨压力不减 失业率维持在低水平与此同时，劳动力市场依然紧张，工资压力与2021年末以来的平均速度相近，失业率维持在3.7%，仍接近50年来的低点。具体来看，平均时薪环比预计上升0.3%，同比增速保持在4.7%，较今年早些时候的峰值5.6%有所放缓。此外，根据美国政府就业成本指数数据，截至9月的12个月，私营部门工资增长率增长了5.2%，比上一季度的5.7%有所下降，但仍处于有记录以来的最高水平。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的工资增长追踪器从去年夏天创纪录的6.7%略有下降，但仍保持在6.4%的水平。但很明显，这与美联储希望看到工资增长放缓至疫情前的2%至3%仍有一定的距离。鲍威尔在布鲁金斯学会的一次演讲中指出，很明显，强劲的工资增长是一件好事，但要使工资增长可持续，它需要与2%的通货膨胀保持一致。失业率方面，过去几个月失业率持续波动，10月份意外上升至3.7%，预计将连续第二个月保持在3.7%，接近50年来的低点。然而，如果11月失业率继续上升，将给经济衰退观察者敲响警钟。随着继续加息，将减缓经济增长并引发更多裁员，美联储此前预测明年失业率将升至4.4%，但现在一些官员表示，失业率可能会升至接近5%。总的来看，野村指出，尽管招聘和离职速度放缓，劳动力市场仍然紧张，空缺与失业率（VU）从9月的1.86略微下降至10月的1.71，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。关于劳动力参与率（LFPR），目前停滞在62%左右，这意味着每100名16岁或以上的人中只有62人正在或寻找工作，11月将微幅上升至62.3%。野村认为，劳动力供应的更强劲复苏是美联储实现软着陆的少数途径之一。巩固放缓加息步伐预期劳动力市场降温将巩固美联储12月放缓加息步伐预期，但更关键的是如何影响终端利率水平。牛津经济学家指出，11月就业增长可能会继续放缓，预计将巩固放缓加息步伐预期。如果美国就业市场放缓的趋势过于明显，可能影响市场对明年终端利率的押注。工资增长上行将看到交易员对更鹰派的美联储赌注，相反，则导致鸽派反应。对美联储来说，就业市场降温是一个好消息，紧张的劳动市场会给工资带来上涨的压力，从而导致物价水平上升。美联储此前曾暗示，12月将放缓加息速度和幅度。但现在降温速度似乎还不能令美联储满意，鲍威尔在演讲中指出，职位空缺则超过现有工人约400万，即每一个找工作的人对应大约1.7个职位空缺。迄今为止，只看到劳动力需求缓和的初步迹象。而美联储的目标是，经济每月只需要增加大约10万个新工作岗位。今晚美股会作何表现？高盛交易员John Flood指出，目前仍然主要处于“坏消息就是好消息”的状态，但正在接近这种状态的尾声。在鲍威尔昨天发表演讲后，现在谈论“增长/衰退问题”比“利率可以提高多少”还要多。具体来看，John Flood预计：>26.1万：标普最少下跌2%；17.5万—26.1万：标普下跌1-2%；12.5k—17.5万：标普上涨0.5%—1%；0—12.5万：标普上涨1-2%；<0：标普因“recession”恐惧下跌1-2%；摩根士丹利销售团队指出，鉴于最近CPI超预期下降已经显示通胀放缓，非农数据预计不会掀起太大的波澜，其结论是：最佳区间好是10万—12.5万，这将允许美联储放缓加息步伐；<2.5万：对美股不利，非农放缓速度过快；>25万：美联储将在12月加息时更鹰派，“75基点”加息预期或重燃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}