$NBIS 20260618 80.0 PUT$ Nebius just reminded the market of one simple truth:In a bull market, you get rewarded for spending. In a bear market, you get punished for it. NBIS: • Revenue missed expectations • CapEx surged • Stock down ~6% pre-market You don’t get to burn aggressively and miss growth targets. Look around: AMD beats earnings → drops on guidance UNH reports → collapses Semis are cracking AI infra names are wobbling This is not euphoric momentum anymore. The market is quietly shifting from: “Spend now, profits later” to “Show me the cash flow.” And when capital expenditure outruns revenue growth, the market stops dreaming and starts discounting. Is AI dead? No. But the easy money phase is over. In bull markets,
$U 20260618 37.0 PUT$ AI is no longer a growth narrative — it’s becoming a business-model risk, and the market has started pricing that in software first. That is exactly how late cycles turn. • Investors are no longer underwriting 3–5 years • They’re discounting structural uncertainty • Appetite to step in is low That’s how multiples compress, even without earnings collapse. We are now seeing a reprice in equities due to: Phase 3 – Distribution / Fragility (Now ‼️) Phase 4 – Repricing / Earnings Reality (Now ‼️) Phase 5 – Capitulation / Reset (not yet ⚠️) April and June will be the most crucial and dangerous window. With liquidity drying up, spending through the roof, being in-line with expectations are no longe
$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ Market and investors punish heavily when expectations miss. AI infrastructure spending is high and investors expect lofty returns. A lowered guidance is a big red flag. With the cracks now starting to appear, how prepare d are you for a market downturn? Seasoned investors limit their exposures by hedging, don't be the one caught out in the cold.
$UNH 20260618 300.0 PUT$ First up on the chopping table, UnitedHealth. Defensive. High-quality. Everyone’s “sleep-well-at-night” stock. Earnings out — stock plunges. That alone is a warning. But here’s where it gets uncomfortable. At the same time: • Semiconductors are no longer reacting well to good news • Rallies are getting sold into • Leadership is narrowing, not expanding This is not random. This is late-cycle behaviour. In healthy markets: • Defensives protect capital • Cyclicals lead • Good earnings get rewarded In late-cycle markets: • Defensives break • Cyclicals lose forgiveness • Even strong numbers fail to save price That’s exactly what we’re seeing. Healthcare cracks. Semis stall. Volatility refuses to die. T
$SMCI 20260618 40.0 PUT$ stagflation is here and the fed is printing money. They are just not explicitly saying it. watch your step, it's six feet down ⚠️