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2021-05-02

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Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?

本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1 GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%

Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":108095871,"tweetId":"108095871","gmtCreate":1619956987093,"gmtModify":1704336758995,"author":{"id":3565141264334143,"idStr":"3565141264334143","authorId":3565141264334143,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>.....</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>.....</body></html>","text":".....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108095871","repostId":2132567538,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1 GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".SUMMARY1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.2. Global macro dataHigh-frequency data this week: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-monthEpidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.Inflation and Commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.Real Estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.Global Macro Calendar: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMItext1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectationsThe actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recoversIn 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurredThe effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of importsThe tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemicLooking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreasedThe number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-yearJapan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-monthU.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in MarchU.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightlyEIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in MarchThe U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stableThe Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n智通财经网2021-05-02 15:45\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".SUMMARY1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.2. Global macro dataHigh-frequency data this week: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-monthEpidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.Inflation and Commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.Real Estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.Global Macro Calendar: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMItext1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectationsThe actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recoversIn 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurredThe effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of importsThe tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemicLooking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreasedThe number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-yearJapan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-monthU.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in MarchU.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightlyEIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in MarchThe U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stableThe Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1 GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1 GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1 GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1583,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}