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2021-06-02

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UBS: Chip shortage problem will be completely solved in the first quarter of next year

全球芯片短缺导致从手机到数据中心的所有供应链都面临压力，但瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)认为，芯片短缺问题应为时短暂，大多数挑战都会因半导体龙头企业和政府加大投资而得到解决，预计芯片短缺状况将在

UBS: Chip shortage problem will be completely solved in the first quarter of next year

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求金
·2021-06-02
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It is expected that the chip shortage will be completely solved in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>A report released by the Office of the Investment Director of UBS Wealth Management on the 1st pointed out that mainland China, like other parts of the world, is facing a shortage of chips. Among them, the impact on the automobile industry is particularly obvious. Many well-known automobile manufacturers around the world have cut their annual profit targets, and mainland automobile manufacturers, which have just recovered from last year's low tide in COVID-19 pandemic Province, are also struggling to support them.</p><p>Regarding the reasons for the global \"chip shortage\", UBS believes that, first of all, Sino-US trade tensions from 2018 to 2020 led the management of most companies to decide to postpone production capacity expansion. This has caused global annual semiconductor wafer equipment investment to stagnate at around US $50 billion, which did not begin to pick up until 2020, and will rise further in 2021 due to supply shortages.</p><p>Second, the increase in production capacity will take time to see results, so supply has failed to keep up with soaring demand during the epidemic. Travel restrictions have accelerated many digital trends, resulting in a substantial increase in spending on devices such as PCs, data centers, and smartphones, exacerbating the imbalance between chip supply and demand.</p><p>Third, the rise of new technologies such as cloud computing, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and 5G has led to an unprecedented increase in the number of chips required for each device. The number of chips used in 5G mobile phones has increased by 40% compared with 4G. Compared with traditional models, the chip density of new energy vehicles such as electric vehicles has also jumped significantly.</p><p>Fourth, there is a general lack of awareness of early deployment in the industry. In the past, governments paid little attention to the chip industry. With COVID-19 pandemic's accelerated localization trend and chip shortages, this situation has changed. Currently, governments in many countries are implementing policies that are conducive to the development of the chip industry, but it will take time for these policy measures to translate into improved supply.</p><p>The good news, UBS said, is that the vast majority of the challenges have been solved by increased investment from semiconductor leaders and governments. This will drive the supply situation to improve before the end of the year. 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Therefore, despite a late start, the mainland's share of global semiconductor capital expenditures has increased from nearly 6% in 2019 to 9% in 2020.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS: Chip shortage problem will be completely solved in the first quarter of next year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUBS: Chip shortage problem will be completely solved in the first quarter of next year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1001700217\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/705285f8deea4d7b8e48df7848a67868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">半导体行业观察 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-02 10:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global chip shortages are putting pressure on all supply chains from mobile phones to data centers, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The Office of the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Wealth Management believes that the chip shortage should be short-lived, and most challenges will be solved by increased investment by leading semiconductor companies and the government. It is expected that the chip shortage will be completely solved in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>A report released by the Office of the Investment Director of UBS Wealth Management on the 1st pointed out that mainland China, like other parts of the world, is facing a shortage of chips. Among them, the impact on the automobile industry is particularly obvious. Many well-known automobile manufacturers around the world have cut their annual profit targets, and mainland automobile manufacturers, which have just recovered from last year's low tide in COVID-19 pandemic Province, are also struggling to support them.</p><p>Regarding the reasons for the global \"chip shortage\", UBS believes that, first of all, Sino-US trade tensions from 2018 to 2020 led the management of most companies to decide to postpone production capacity expansion. This has caused global annual semiconductor wafer equipment investment to stagnate at around US $50 billion, which did not begin to pick up until 2020, and will rise further in 2021 due to supply shortages.</p><p>Second, the increase in production capacity will take time to see results, so supply has failed to keep up with soaring demand during the epidemic. Travel restrictions have accelerated many digital trends, resulting in a substantial increase in spending on devices such as PCs, data centers, and smartphones, exacerbating the imbalance between chip supply and demand.</p><p>Third, the rise of new technologies such as cloud computing, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and 5G has led to an unprecedented increase in the number of chips required for each device. The number of chips used in 5G mobile phones has increased by 40% compared with 4G. Compared with traditional models, the chip density of new energy vehicles such as electric vehicles has also jumped significantly.</p><p>Fourth, there is a general lack of awareness of early deployment in the industry. In the past, governments paid little attention to the chip industry. With COVID-19 pandemic's accelerated localization trend and chip shortages, this situation has changed. Currently, governments in many countries are implementing policies that are conducive to the development of the chip industry, but it will take time for these policy measures to translate into improved supply.</p><p>The good news, UBS said, is that the vast majority of the challenges have been solved by increased investment from semiconductor leaders and governments. This will drive the supply situation to improve before the end of the year. Therefore,<b>UBS is consistent with the guidance given by leading chip manufacturers, believing that the chip shortage will be completely resolved in the first quarter of 2022.</b></p><p>UBS said that China was one of the first countries to realize the strategic importance of semiconductors. As early as 2014, the government established the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (CICIIF). After that, the fund raised huge amounts of funds to support the development of the domestic semiconductor industry. Therefore, despite a late start, the mainland's share of global semiconductor capital expenditures has increased from nearly 6% in 2019 to 9% in 2020.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210602/20210602093325_31743.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"UBS":"瑞银"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140494460","content_text":"全球芯片短缺导致从手机到数据中心的所有供应链都面临压力，但瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)认为，芯片短缺问题应为时短暂，大多数挑战都会因半导体龙头企业和政府加大投资而得到解决，预计芯片短缺状况将在2022年第1季得到完全解决。\n瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室1日发布的报告指出，中国大陆和世界其他地区一样，都正面临芯片短缺的问题。其中汽车业受到的冲击尤其明显，全球多家知名汽车厂商都已削减全年获利目标，刚从去年新冠疫情低潮中复苏的大陆汽车厂商也在勉力支撑。\n对于引发全球“芯片荒”的原因，瑞银认为，首先，2018至2020年中美贸易紧张局势导致多数企业的管理层决定推迟产能扩张。这使得全球年度半导体晶圆设备投资停滞于500亿美元左右，直到2020年才开始回升，2021年由于供应短缺而进一步上扬。\n其次，产能增加需要时间才能见到成果，因此在疫情期间供应未能跟上飙涨的需求。出行限制加快了诸多数字化趋势，使得PC、数据中心及智能手机等设备支出大幅增长，加剧了芯片供需失衡局面。\n第三，云端计算、电动汽车、人工智能及5G等新技术崛起，使得每台设备所需芯片前所未有地增加，5G手机所用到的芯片就比4G增加40%。相较于传统车型，电动车等新能源汽车的芯片密度也大幅跃升。\n第四，业内普遍缺乏提前部署的意识。过去，各国政府对芯片业关注不多。而随着新冠疫情加速本土化趋势，加上芯片短缺，这种情况已经改变。当前，许多国家的政府都在推行有助于芯片产业发展的政策，但这些政策措施需要假以时日才能转化为供给改善。\n瑞银表示，好消息是，绝大多数挑战都因半导体龙头企业和政府增加投资而得以解决。这将推动供给情况在年底前出现改善。因此，瑞银与龙头芯片制造商给出的指引一致，认为晶片短缺状况将在2022年第1季得到完全解决。\n瑞银表示，中国是最先认识到半导体战略重要性的国家之一，早在2014年，政府即成立中国集成电路产业投资基金(CICIIF)。之后该基金募集了巨额的资金用于支持国内半导体行业发展。因此，尽管起步较晚，但大陆在全球半导体资本支出的占比已从2019年的近6%上升至2020年的9%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2632,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4539976,"commentId":"4539976","gmtCreate":1622600847325,"gmtModify":1680792573502,"authorId":3573168884997306,"author":{"id":3573168884997306,"idStr":"3573168884997306","authorId":3573168884997306,"name":"求金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869d585d3a198da2a97a46b697e6c522","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113146643,"objectIdStr":"113146643","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}