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JackyLove
2021-06-08

Guan Qingyou: The A-share style switches again, and the core assets are back?

编者按：近期市场热点层出不穷，股债汇金同步大涨，A股好转、债市回暖、人民币升值、黄金连续上涨、大宗商品再度升温等等，市场剧烈变化，风格快速切换，操作难度加大。为此，我们根据管院长近期财富活动的现场演讲

Guan Qingyou: The A-share style switches again, and the core assets are back?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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JackyLove
·2021-06-08
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":117103923,"tweetId":"117103923","gmtCreate":1623120045262,"gmtModify":1704196489621,"author":{"id":3576391338782613,"idStr":"3576391338782613","authorId":3576391338782613,"authorIdStr":"3576391338782613","name":"JackyLove","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca9a8a9b23114d17a2580e761155d47","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>n</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>n</body></html>","text":"n","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117103923","repostId":1151376161,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151376161","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623119950,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151376161?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 10:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Guan Qingyou: The A-share style switches again, and the core assets are back?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151376161","media":"清友会","summary":"编者按：近期市场热点层出不穷，股债汇金同步大涨，A股好转、债市回暖、人民币升值、黄金连续上涨、大宗商品再度升温等等，市场剧烈变化，风格快速切换，操作难度加大。为此，我们根据管院长近期财富活动的现场演讲","content":"Editor's Note:Recently, hot spots in the market have emerged in an endless stream. Stocks, bonds and Huijin have soared simultaneously, A-shares have improved, the bond market has picked up, the RMB has appreciated, gold has continued to rise, commodities have heated up again, etc. The market has changed drastically, styles have switched rapidly, and operations have become more difficult. To this end, according to the live speech of Dean Guan's recent wealth activities, we sorted out the top ten issues that attract the most attention of investors.1. The economic slowdown is coupled with rising inflation, and a stagflation-like cycle is approachingIn fact, the judgment of the economic cycle can be simplified by complex issues. Combined with the judgment of PMI, the leading economic indicator, and PPI, the sensitive economic indicator, China's economy has gradually entered a state of stagflation. PMI has fallen for two consecutive months, the pace of economic recovery has begun to slow down, and growth momentum has declined, mainly because external demand orders have begun to weaken. PPI continues to rise, commodities still have momentum to rise, and short-term inflation has not yet peaked. Economic growth is slowing down and prices are at a high level, which is a typical feature of stagflation. But it is not the classic stagflation mentioned in textbooks. Prices are rising across the board. This is because this round of recovery has a typical feature, that is, imbalance and obvious differentiation. Price increases are mainly concentrated in upstream raw materials. Due to sluggish domestic demand at terminals, The bargaining power is weak, so the transmission of PPI to CPI is not smooth, and the profit has not improved significantly, which in turn has a certain inhibitory effect on consumption. This situation is even more serious than stagflation.2. The peak of recovery is likely to appear in the second quarter, and the economic growth momentum will weaken in the second half of the yearThis problem can be analyzed from three angles:First, real estate is likely to be at risk of falling back in the second half of the year.The resilience of real estate is very strong, but the \"invincible Xiaoqiang\" can't stand fighting every day. Now that mortgage loans are becoming stricter, the support on the sales side has begun to weaken. In addition, the financing side of real estate has been restricted, new construction has slowed down, and investment is very likely to gradually fall back;Second, infrastructure has gradually entered a downward cycle。 For local governments, risk prevention in the second half of the year is far more important than stabilizing growth. The limit for new local government debt in 2021 issued by the Ministry of Finance a few days ago is lower than the budget arrangement. The issuance of local government special bonds in May was also lower than expected. In addition, the pressure on local government debt It has not been completely alleviated, the decline in infrastructure investment is inevitable, and the high growth rate is unsustainable;The third is weak consumption, which is also the most difficult problem.This is because stimulating consumption recovery cannot be achieved overnight, and it is a slow job. On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized enterprises has not completely passed, and the growth of residents' disposable income has slowed down. On the other hand, we are also in a period of slowdown in consumption growth, and there are structural problems.3. Short-term inflation still has upward momentum, continuing \"semi-inflation\", but it is basically controllable in the long runAt present, there are structural differences in China's price levels. Looking at CPI and PPI separately, the pressure on CPI is not great, and the pressure on PPI is not small. CPI is easily disturbed by the pig cycle. Pig prices have entered a downward cycle, which is not enough to represent the actual price level. PPI is more sensitive and objective to inflation. At this stage, the pressure on rising prices is mainly concentrated on the production side, mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Inflation in the United States is also very serious, and CPI has recorded the largest year-on-year increase since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. This round of inflation may have the momentum to continue to rise in the short term. This is because although the recovery on the demand side has slowed down, it is not over. Demand is still strong. On the supply side, the epidemic situation in India, Southeast Asia and other countries has worsened again, affecting production and supply. The short-term supply side is damaged, the demand side is relatively strong, and the gap between supply and demand still exists, but it will be alleviated due to high-level efforts to stabilize commodity prices. Although the commodity market has not yet peaked, considering that the price increase of upstream commodities has seriously affected the operations of some enterprises, the government has begun to intervene. In addition, the speculation of commodities in the international financial market is indeed very serious. The market is coming to an end, and the fluctuations will also increase significantly, making it difficult to grasp. It is recommended to participate cautiously. In the long run, as the popularity of vaccines increases, corporate production gradually recovers, the gap between supply and demand is repaired, and inflationary pressure is still controllable.4. Global monetary policy is facing a \"trilemma\" dilemma, with different loose boundaries. At present, it is difficult for the world to balance economic recovery, price stability and asset price stabilityFirst, it is necessary to stimulate economic recovery. Although the economy is still in the process of recovery, the growth rate has begun to slow down, and there is still a long way to go from full employment. Loose monetary stimulus is needed to maintain economic growth and ensure employment. Therefore, it is still too early for many countries to withdraw monetary policies; Second, commodity prices have risen one after another, inflation expectations have continued to rise, and market concerns about rate hike's resistance to global inflation have continued to rise; Third, after the epidemic, the global flood release gave birth to an unprecedented asset bull market. The problem of asset bubbles deserves vigilance, but now the world's major central banks dare not act rashly. The financial market collapse after the Turkish rate hike is a tragic lesson, and the Federal Reserve has gradually been \"kidnapped\" by Wall Street, dare not take the initiative to burst the US stock bubble, but they cannot allow asset prices to rise indefinitely.5. The U.S. employment data is far less than expected, and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to be loose and will not make a sudden rate hikeAs non-farm payrolls missed expectations for two consecutive months, Fed rate hike expectations eased. In April, U.S. non-farm employment was a big upset, with only 266,000 new jobs created, far lower than the expected value of 1 million. In May, it increased by 559,000, lower than the expected 674,000. The goals of full employment and economic recovery are far from being achieved. It is difficult to say that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be tightened. However, the minutes of the recent Federal Reserve meeting released several signals worthy of attention: First, it began to consider reducing the scale of bond purchases. There will be no rate hike in the short term, but it will consider reducing the scale of bond purchases. But now it is only beginning to \"consider\" when will it be? The reduction has not yet been concluded; Second, it may take some time to achieve the goal of maximizing employment and price stability, which means that the most important thing at this stage is full employment, and it is necessary to continue to maintain easing; Third, we are basically optimistic about inflation. After the short-term effect of inflation subsides, it will ease during the year, and we will maintain a high tolerance for inflation. On the whole, the Fed's stance is a little more hawkish than before, and it will tighten monetary policy marginally by reducing the scale of bond purchases in the future, but now is not the time yet.6. China's monetary policy remains neutral, emphasizing \"no sharp turns\", which may be fine-tuned, but it will not turnThe wave of rate hike in emerging markets is coming, and Russian, Brazilian, Turkish and other countries have started rate hike. On the one hand, it is to control inflation, and on the other hand, it is to prevent the possible impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, but it will not spread to China soon. This is because China has carried out a relatively thorough financial rectification after 2017, so we will be affected by the policy adjustment of the United States, but our ability to resist risks will be stronger. But Russia, Brazil and Turkey are different from ours, and they are much more affected by the Federal Reserve than we are. Especially after the epidemic in 2020, my country's monetary policy easing was relatively restrained. It did not practice MMT like countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries, with unlimited easing. This is because China's economic development stage and China's monetary policy transmission mechanism are very different from those of European and American countries. There is a big difference and cannot be generalized. At the same time, China still has other potential growth potentials, and it doesn't necessarily need flooding to stimulate the economy. Therefore, China's current monetary policy is relatively cautious and rational, and the official has clearly stated that it \"does not make a sharp turn\" and pays attention to \"fine-tuning\".7. 2021 is a small year for assets, and the expected rate of return should be lowered, so that stability can achieve long-term progressWhen we looked forward at the end of last year, we said that 2020 would be a big year for the stock market and 2021 would be a big year for the property market. This year's stock market will definitely not be as full of opportunities as 2020. For ordinary investors, risks outweigh opportunities. It is mainly based on two judgments: First, there is not so much water. In 2020, M2 will be around 21%, and the nominal GDP growth rate will be around 16%, with a 5% difference; In 2021, M2 is expected to be around 10%, and the real GDP growth target is 6%, leaving room for marginal tightening. The inflation target is 3%, and the nominal GDP growth rate is around 9%, which is exactly a 1: 1 match., not much room. Second, leading stocks are expensive. The core asset group has risen too much, divorced from fundamentals, the valuation is too high, and the risk compensation premium is too low, especially the SSE 50, CSI 300 and science and technology innovation board. Therefore, this wave of adjustments after the Spring Festival is in our expectations. Although there will be phased repair opportunities after the rapid adjustment, the stagflation-like cycle strikes, and neither liquidity nor fundamentals can support a comprehensive bull market, maintaining assets during the year. The judgment of small years.8. A-shares only have structural opportunities, and the style gradually switches from pro-cyclical to cross-cyclicalThe structural opportunities we talked about at the end of last year mainly refer to the fact that the stock market style will switch from the sector where the valuation will push up institutions in 2020 to the pro-cyclical sector driven by performance. From the white horse stock market crash around the Spring Festival to the \"coal flying\" market brought about by the subsequent rise in commodity prices, it basically confirmed the pro-cyclical market we predicted. But now the recovery is beginning to slow down, the stagflation-like cycle is getting closer and closer, and the market style is rebalancing. Due to the slowdown in recovery and early overdraft, the pro-cyclical market is coming to an end. Although there are still opportunities after adjustment, it has shifted from a unilateral upward trend to a shock stage, with intensified volatility and more difficult operation. Cross-cyclical consumption, medicine and other sectors, especially those companies whose performance can be continuously released, may still have opportunities as long as there is no major tightening of liquidity. In the counter-cyclical technology growth sector, due to the tightening of liquidity margins and low risk appetite, the overall situation is still under pressure, and only a few performance-driven core leaders can withstand it.9. After the adjustment, the trend of the leading stocks in the group is obviously differentiated, and the \"Xueba Model\" is used to select core assetsThe stock market crash of white horse stocks after the Spring Festival was actually expected. Institutional grouping is not a reliable and long-term thing. Once some of the elements change, grouping will definitely collapse. The investment logic in 2021 is no longer driven by valuation caused by loose expectations, but driven by fundamentals after the water level drops. Whoever makes good profits and has a high cost-effective stock price will win the top spot.The view of white horse stocks can be explained by the \"Xueba Model\".Suppose there is a schoolmaster who falls in love after the Spring Festival this year, and his academic performance plummets, suddenly dropping from the top five in the grade to over twenties. What should you do at this time? Is it to abandon the schoolmaster and turn to find the scum? Or wait patiently for Xueba to do his own ideological work well? In fact, it all depends on your understanding of Xueba. Do you want to understand that the mistake of Xueba this time is because falling in love delayed time? Or sick? Or is there a psychological problem? This is the same logic as choosing stocks. There is a high probability that the real academic tyrant will make a comeback, and the probability that the academic scum will perform extraordinarily is relatively small.Therefore, we advocate that we should continue to pay attention to performance. While supported by fundamentals, investors should resist the pressure of valuation adjustment of core assets and accompany Xueba.10. Mortgage interest rates increase, and the window period for house purchase gradually closesUnder easing, there is no bear market in real estate. Similarly, after tightening, the bull market in real estate is unsustainable. At the end of last year, we said that this year is a big year for the property market. Due to the low base effect and the intensified push, the real estate sales in the first quarter hit a record high, and the annual sales are expected to exceed 18 trillion yuan, a historical record. The big year for the property market has been booked in advance. However, with the change of liquidity, various places have raised mortgage interest rates, and some cities even plan to tentatively make second-hand housing loans. It is the general trend that loans are difficult and expensive, which is bound to dampen the enthusiasm for buying houses, and the window period for buying houses will gradually close.","source":"lsy1615432093283","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Guan Qingyou: The A-share style switches again, and the core assets are back?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGuan Qingyou: The A-share style switches again, and the core assets are back?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n清友会2021-06-08 10:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEditor's Note:Recently, hot spots in the market have emerged in an endless stream. Stocks, bonds and Huijin have soared simultaneously, A-shares have improved, the bond market has picked up, the RMB has appreciated, gold has continued to rise, commodities have heated up again, etc. The market has changed drastically, styles have switched rapidly, and operations have become more difficult. To this end, according to the live speech of Dean Guan's recent wealth activities, we sorted out the top ten issues that attract the most attention of investors.1. The economic slowdown is coupled with rising inflation, and a stagflation-like cycle is approachingIn fact, the judgment of the economic cycle can be simplified by complex issues. Combined with the judgment of PMI, the leading economic indicator, and PPI, the sensitive economic indicator, China's economy has gradually entered a state of stagflation. PMI has fallen for two consecutive months, the pace of economic recovery has begun to slow down, and growth momentum has declined, mainly because external demand orders have begun to weaken. PPI continues to rise, commodities still have momentum to rise, and short-term inflation has not yet peaked. Economic growth is slowing down and prices are at a high level, which is a typical feature of stagflation. But it is not the classic stagflation mentioned in textbooks. Prices are rising across the board. This is because this round of recovery has a typical feature, that is, imbalance and obvious differentiation. Price increases are mainly concentrated in upstream raw materials. Due to sluggish domestic demand at terminals, The bargaining power is weak, so the transmission of PPI to CPI is not smooth, and the profit has not improved significantly, which in turn has a certain inhibitory effect on consumption. This situation is even more serious than stagflation.2. The peak of recovery is likely to appear in the second quarter, and the economic growth momentum will weaken in the second half of the yearThis problem can be analyzed from three angles:First, real estate is likely to be at risk of falling back in the second half of the year.The resilience of real estate is very strong, but the \"invincible Xiaoqiang\" can't stand fighting every day. Now that mortgage loans are becoming stricter, the support on the sales side has begun to weaken. In addition, the financing side of real estate has been restricted, new construction has slowed down, and investment is very likely to gradually fall back;Second, infrastructure has gradually entered a downward cycle。 For local governments, risk prevention in the second half of the year is far more important than stabilizing growth. The limit for new local government debt in 2021 issued by the Ministry of Finance a few days ago is lower than the budget arrangement. The issuance of local government special bonds in May was also lower than expected. In addition, the pressure on local government debt It has not been completely alleviated, the decline in infrastructure investment is inevitable, and the high growth rate is unsustainable;The third is weak consumption, which is also the most difficult problem.This is because stimulating consumption recovery cannot be achieved overnight, and it is a slow job. On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized enterprises has not completely passed, and the growth of residents' disposable income has slowed down. On the other hand, we are also in a period of slowdown in consumption growth, and there are structural problems.3. Short-term inflation still has upward momentum, continuing \"semi-inflation\", but it is basically controllable in the long runAt present, there are structural differences in China's price levels. Looking at CPI and PPI separately, the pressure on CPI is not great, and the pressure on PPI is not small. CPI is easily disturbed by the pig cycle. Pig prices have entered a downward cycle, which is not enough to represent the actual price level. PPI is more sensitive and objective to inflation. At this stage, the pressure on rising prices is mainly concentrated on the production side, mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Inflation in the United States is also very serious, and CPI has recorded the largest year-on-year increase since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. This round of inflation may have the momentum to continue to rise in the short term. This is because although the recovery on the demand side has slowed down, it is not over. Demand is still strong. On the supply side, the epidemic situation in India, Southeast Asia and other countries has worsened again, affecting production and supply. The short-term supply side is damaged, the demand side is relatively strong, and the gap between supply and demand still exists, but it will be alleviated due to high-level efforts to stabilize commodity prices. Although the commodity market has not yet peaked, considering that the price increase of upstream commodities has seriously affected the operations of some enterprises, the government has begun to intervene. In addition, the speculation of commodities in the international financial market is indeed very serious. The market is coming to an end, and the fluctuations will also increase significantly, making it difficult to grasp. It is recommended to participate cautiously. In the long run, as the popularity of vaccines increases, corporate production gradually recovers, the gap between supply and demand is repaired, and inflationary pressure is still controllable.4. Global monetary policy is facing a \"trilemma\" dilemma, with different loose boundaries. At present, it is difficult for the world to balance economic recovery, price stability and asset price stabilityFirst, it is necessary to stimulate economic recovery. Although the economy is still in the process of recovery, the growth rate has begun to slow down, and there is still a long way to go from full employment. Loose monetary stimulus is needed to maintain economic growth and ensure employment. Therefore, it is still too early for many countries to withdraw monetary policies; Second, commodity prices have risen one after another, inflation expectations have continued to rise, and market concerns about rate hike's resistance to global inflation have continued to rise; Third, after the epidemic, the global flood release gave birth to an unprecedented asset bull market. The problem of asset bubbles deserves vigilance, but now the world's major central banks dare not act rashly. The financial market collapse after the Turkish rate hike is a tragic lesson, and the Federal Reserve has gradually been \"kidnapped\" by Wall Street, dare not take the initiative to burst the US stock bubble, but they cannot allow asset prices to rise indefinitely.5. The U.S. employment data is far less than expected, and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to be loose and will not make a sudden rate hikeAs non-farm payrolls missed expectations for two consecutive months, Fed rate hike expectations eased. In April, U.S. non-farm employment was a big upset, with only 266,000 new jobs created, far lower than the expected value of 1 million. In May, it increased by 559,000, lower than the expected 674,000. The goals of full employment and economic recovery are far from being achieved. It is difficult to say that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be tightened. However, the minutes of the recent Federal Reserve meeting released several signals worthy of attention: First, it began to consider reducing the scale of bond purchases. There will be no rate hike in the short term, but it will consider reducing the scale of bond purchases. But now it is only beginning to \"consider\" when will it be? The reduction has not yet been concluded; Second, it may take some time to achieve the goal of maximizing employment and price stability, which means that the most important thing at this stage is full employment, and it is necessary to continue to maintain easing; Third, we are basically optimistic about inflation. After the short-term effect of inflation subsides, it will ease during the year, and we will maintain a high tolerance for inflation. On the whole, the Fed's stance is a little more hawkish than before, and it will tighten monetary policy marginally by reducing the scale of bond purchases in the future, but now is not the time yet.6. China's monetary policy remains neutral, emphasizing \"no sharp turns\", which may be fine-tuned, but it will not turnThe wave of rate hike in emerging markets is coming, and Russian, Brazilian, Turkish and other countries have started rate hike. On the one hand, it is to control inflation, and on the other hand, it is to prevent the possible impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, but it will not spread to China soon. This is because China has carried out a relatively thorough financial rectification after 2017, so we will be affected by the policy adjustment of the United States, but our ability to resist risks will be stronger. But Russia, Brazil and Turkey are different from ours, and they are much more affected by the Federal Reserve than we are. Especially after the epidemic in 2020, my country's monetary policy easing was relatively restrained. It did not practice MMT like countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries, with unlimited easing. This is because China's economic development stage and China's monetary policy transmission mechanism are very different from those of European and American countries. There is a big difference and cannot be generalized. At the same time, China still has other potential growth potentials, and it doesn't necessarily need flooding to stimulate the economy. Therefore, China's current monetary policy is relatively cautious and rational, and the official has clearly stated that it \"does not make a sharp turn\" and pays attention to \"fine-tuning\".7. 2021 is a small year for assets, and the expected rate of return should be lowered, so that stability can achieve long-term progressWhen we looked forward at the end of last year, we said that 2020 would be a big year for the stock market and 2021 would be a big year for the property market. This year's stock market will definitely not be as full of opportunities as 2020. For ordinary investors, risks outweigh opportunities. It is mainly based on two judgments: First, there is not so much water. In 2020, M2 will be around 21%, and the nominal GDP growth rate will be around 16%, with a 5% difference; In 2021, M2 is expected to be around 10%, and the real GDP growth target is 6%, leaving room for marginal tightening. The inflation target is 3%, and the nominal GDP growth rate is around 9%, which is exactly a 1: 1 match., not much room. Second, leading stocks are expensive. The core asset group has risen too much, divorced from fundamentals, the valuation is too high, and the risk compensation premium is too low, especially the SSE 50, CSI 300 and science and technology innovation board. Therefore, this wave of adjustments after the Spring Festival is in our expectations. Although there will be phased repair opportunities after the rapid adjustment, the stagflation-like cycle strikes, and neither liquidity nor fundamentals can support a comprehensive bull market, maintaining assets during the year. The judgment of small years.8. A-shares only have structural opportunities, and the style gradually switches from pro-cyclical to cross-cyclicalThe structural opportunities we talked about at the end of last year mainly refer to the fact that the stock market style will switch from the sector where the valuation will push up institutions in 2020 to the pro-cyclical sector driven by performance. From the white horse stock market crash around the Spring Festival to the \"coal flying\" market brought about by the subsequent rise in commodity prices, it basically confirmed the pro-cyclical market we predicted. But now the recovery is beginning to slow down, the stagflation-like cycle is getting closer and closer, and the market style is rebalancing. Due to the slowdown in recovery and early overdraft, the pro-cyclical market is coming to an end. Although there are still opportunities after adjustment, it has shifted from a unilateral upward trend to a shock stage, with intensified volatility and more difficult operation. Cross-cyclical consumption, medicine and other sectors, especially those companies whose performance can be continuously released, may still have opportunities as long as there is no major tightening of liquidity. In the counter-cyclical technology growth sector, due to the tightening of liquidity margins and low risk appetite, the overall situation is still under pressure, and only a few performance-driven core leaders can withstand it.9. After the adjustment, the trend of the leading stocks in the group is obviously differentiated, and the \"Xueba Model\" is used to select core assetsThe stock market crash of white horse stocks after the Spring Festival was actually expected. Institutional grouping is not a reliable and long-term thing. Once some of the elements change, grouping will definitely collapse. The investment logic in 2021 is no longer driven by valuation caused by loose expectations, but driven by fundamentals after the water level drops. Whoever makes good profits and has a high cost-effective stock price will win the top spot.The view of white horse stocks can be explained by the \"Xueba Model\".Suppose there is a schoolmaster who falls in love after the Spring Festival this year, and his academic performance plummets, suddenly dropping from the top five in the grade to over twenties. What should you do at this time? Is it to abandon the schoolmaster and turn to find the scum? Or wait patiently for Xueba to do his own ideological work well? In fact, it all depends on your understanding of Xueba. Do you want to understand that the mistake of Xueba this time is because falling in love delayed time? Or sick? Or is there a psychological problem? This is the same logic as choosing stocks. There is a high probability that the real academic tyrant will make a comeback, and the probability that the academic scum will perform extraordinarily is relatively small.Therefore, we advocate that we should continue to pay attention to performance. While supported by fundamentals, investors should resist the pressure of valuation adjustment of core assets and accompany Xueba.10. Mortgage interest rates increase, and the window period for house purchase gradually closesUnder easing, there is no bear market in real estate. Similarly, after tightening, the bull market in real estate is unsustainable. At the end of last year, we said that this year is a big year for the property market. Due to the low base effect and the intensified push, the real estate sales in the first quarter hit a record high, and the annual sales are expected to exceed 18 trillion yuan, a historical record. The big year for the property market has been booked in advance. However, with the change of liquidity, various places have raised mortgage interest rates, and some cities even plan to tentatively make second-hand housing loans. It is the general trend that loans are difficult and expensive, which is bound to dampen the enthusiasm for buying houses, and the window period for buying houses will gradually close.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/S9wHhAYd5vrsRbR_o0ENBw\">清友会</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/S9wHhAYd5vrsRbR_o0ENBw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151376161","content_text":"编者按：近期市场热点层出不穷，股债汇金同步大涨，A股好转、债市回暖、人民币升值、黄金连续上涨、大宗商品再度升温等等，市场剧烈变化，风格快速切换，操作难度加大。为此，我们根据管院长近期财富活动的现场演讲，整理出最受投资者关注的十大问题。\n\n1、经济放缓叠加通胀升温，类滞胀周期正在临近\n对于经济周期的判断，其实可以复杂问题简单化，结合经济先行指标PMI和经济敏感指标PPI判断，当前中国经济已经逐步进入到类滞胀状态。PMI连续两个月回落，经济复苏步伐开始放缓，增长动能有所下滑，主要是外需订单开始走弱。PPI持续上行，大宗商品还有冲高动能，短期通胀尚未见顶。经济增速放缓，物价处于高位，这就是滞胀的典型特征。但并不是教科书里讲的那种经典滞胀，物价全面上行，这是因为本轮复苏有一个典型的特征，那就是不均衡、分化明显，涨价主要集中在上游原材料上，终端由于内需不振、议价能力偏弱，所以PPI向CPI传导并不顺畅，盈利也未能有明显的改善，进而对消费也产生了一定的抑制作用，这种情况比滞胀还要严重。\n2、复苏顶点大概率在二季度出现，下半年经济增长动能会有所衰减\n可以从三个角度来分析这个问题：一是房地产在下半年很可能有回落风险。房地产的韧性很强，但“打不死的小强”也架不住天天打，如今房贷趋严，销售端支撑开始趋弱，再加上房地产的融资端受到了限制，新开工放缓，投资很有可能逐渐回落；二是基建已经逐步进入了下行周期。对于地方政府，下半年防风险远比稳增长更重要，前几天财政部下达的2021年新增地方债限额低于预算安排额度，5月地方政府专项债发行也是不及预期，加之地方债压力仍未彻底缓解，基建投资下滑是在所难免，高增速难以为继；三是消费疲软，这也是最棘手的问题。这是因为刺激消费复苏不能一蹴而就，是个慢活。一方面是疫情对中小企业的冲击并没有完全过去，居民可支配收入增长放缓，另一方面我们也正处于消费增长的减速期，存在结构性问题。\n3、短期通胀仍有上行动力，延续“半通货膨胀”，但长期来看基本可控\n当前中国的物价水平是有结构性差异的，将CPI和PPI分开来看，CPI压力不大，PPI压力不小。CPI容易受猪周期干扰，猪价已进入下行周期，不足以代表实际物价水平，PPI对通胀更加敏感和客观，现阶段物价上涨压力主要集中在生产端，主要原因是供需错配。美国通胀也很严重，CPI已经创下2008年次贷危机以来最大同比增幅。本轮通胀短期可能还有继续上行的动力，这是因为需求端虽然复苏有所放缓，但并未结束，需求依旧强劲，供给端由于印度、东南亚等国家疫情再度恶化，影响生产供给，短期供给侧受损、需求侧相对旺盛，供需缺口依旧存在，但由于高层出手稳定大宗商品价格，会有所缓解。大宗商品行情虽然尚未见顶，但考虑到上游大宗商品涨价已经严重影响到部分企业经营情况，政府已经出手开始干预，加之国际金融市场对商品的炒作确实非常严重，行情已接近尾声，波动也会明显加大，难以把握，建议谨慎参与。长期来看，随着疫苗普及程度提升，企业生产逐渐恢复，供求缺口修复，通胀压力还算可控。\n4、全球货币政策面临“三难”困境，宽松的边界各不相同。当前全球对于经济复苏、物价平稳、资产价格平稳三者之间难以兼顾\n一是要刺激经济的复苏，虽然经济还在复苏过程中，但增速已经开始放缓，离充分就业还有不小的距离，需要宽松的货币刺激来维持经济增长和保障就业，所以对于不少国家货币政策退出还为时尚早；二是大宗商品接连涨价，通胀预期不断升温，市场关于加息抵御全球性通胀的担忧不断提升；三是疫情之后，全球大放水催生了史无前例的资产大牛市，资产泡沫问题值得警惕，但现在全球主要央行都不敢轻举妄动，土耳其加息后金融市场崩盘就是很惨烈的教训，美联储也逐步被华尔街“绑架”，不敢主动戳破美股泡沫，但也不能放任资产价格无限上涨。\n5、美国就业数据远不及预期，美联储大概率持续宽松，不会骤然加息\n由于非农就业连续两个月不及预期，美联储加息预期有所缓解。4月美国非农就业大爆冷，新增就业人数仅26.6万人，远低于100万的预计值，5月增加55.9万，低于预期的67.4万，充分就业和经济复苏的目标远未达成，美联储货币政策难说收紧。但近期的美联储会议纪要释放了几点值得关注的信号：一是开始考虑缩减购债规模，短期不会加息，但会考虑缩减购债规模，但现在仅仅是开始“考虑”，具体什么时候开始缩减还没结论；二是要实现最大化就业和价格稳定目标，可能还需要一段时间，意味着现阶段最重要的是充分就业，还要继续维持宽松；三是对通胀基本持有乐观态度，通胀短期效应消退后，年内会有所缓解，对通胀保持较高的容忍度。综合来看，美联储表态比之前更鹰派一点，未来会通过缩减购债规模来边际收紧货币政策，但现在还不是时候。\n6、中国货币政策维持中性，强调“不急转弯”，可能微调，但不至于转向\n新兴市场加息潮将来袭，俄罗斯、巴西、土耳其等国已经开始加息，一方面是控制通胀，另一方面是防止美联储加息可能带来的冲击，但不会很快蔓延到中国。这是因为中国在2017年之后进行了一场比较彻底的金融大整顿，因此我们受到美国政策调整的影响会有，但是抗风险能力会比较强。可俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其这些经济体和我们不同，它们受到美联储的影响要比我们要大得多。特别是2020年疫情以后，我国货币政策宽松相对克制，并没有像欧美日等国践行MMT，无上限宽松，这是因为中国的经济发展阶段、中国的货币政策传导机制，都和欧美国家有很大差别，不能一概而论。同时中国仍有其他潜在增长潜力，并不一定需要大水漫灌来刺激经济。因此我国当前的货币政策比较谨慎、理性，官方也明确表明“不急转弯”，注重“微调”。\n7、2021年是资产小年，应降低预期收益率，行稳才能致远\n我们在去年年底展望的时候说2020年是股市大年，2021年是楼市大年。今年的股市肯定不会像2020年那样充满机会，对于普通投资者而言，是风险大于机会。主要是基于两点判断：一是水没有那么多。2020年M2在21%左右，名义GDP增速在16%左右，有5%的差值；2021年M2预计在10%左右，实际GDP增速定的目标是6%，预留了边际收紧的空间，通胀目标是3%，名义GDP增速在9%左右，正好1:1匹配，没有太大的空间。二是龙头股偏贵。核心资产抱团涨得太多，脱离基本面，估值太高，风险补偿溢价太低，特别是上证50、沪深300和科创板。所以春节过后的这波调整在我们的预期之中，虽然快速调整之后，会有阶段性的修复机会，但类滞胀周期来袭，流动性和基本面都无法支撑全面的大牛市，维持年内资产小年的判断。\n8、A股只有结构性机会，风格逐渐从顺周期向跨周期切换\n去年年底我们说的结构性的机会，主要指的是股市风格将从2020年估值推升机构抱团的板块，切换为业绩驱动的顺周期板块。从春节前后这一轮白马股股灾，到后来大宗商品价格上涨带来的“煤飞色舞”行情，基本印证了我们预判的顺周期行情。但现在复苏开始放缓，类滞胀周期越来越近，市场风格出现再平衡。顺周期行情由于复苏放缓和前期透支，行情接近尾声，虽然调整后还有机会，但已经从单边上行转向震荡阶段，波动加剧，操作难度加大。跨周期的消费、医药等板块，特别是那些业绩能持续释放的公司，流动性只要没有大的收紧，可能仍有机会。逆周期的科技成长板块，由于流动性边际收紧，风险偏好处于低位，整体依然承压，只有极少数业绩驱动型的核心龙头能扛住。\n9、抱团龙头股调整后走势明显分化，用“学霸模型”选择核心资产\n春节后白马股的股灾其实是在意料中的，机构抱团并不是一件靠谱且长久的事，一旦其中部分要素发生变化，抱团肯定会瓦解。2021年投资逻辑不再是宽松预期导致的估值驱动，而是水位下降之后的基本面驱动，谁盈利好，股价性价比高，谁就能拔得头筹。对于白马股的看法，可以用“学霸模型”来解释一下。假设有一个学霸，在今年春节以后谈恋爱，学习成绩直线下降，一下子从年级前五名掉到了年纪二十多名。这时候你该怎么办？是抛弃学霸转身去找学渣？还是耐心等学霸做好自己的思想工作？其实这一切都取决于你对学霸的理解。你要搞懂这次学霸发挥失误是因为谈恋爱耽误时间了？还是生病了？抑或是心理出现了问题？这和选择股票的逻辑是一样的。真正的学霸大概率会东山再起，学渣超常发挥的概率相对较小。因此我们主张要继续去关注业绩，有基本面支撑的同时，投资者要抗住核心资产的估值调整的压力，陪伴学霸。\n10、房贷利率上调，购房窗口期逐渐关闭\n宽松之下，地产无熊市，同理，紧缩之后，地产牛市难以为继。去年年底我们曾说今年是楼市大年，由于低基数效应和推盘力度加大，一季度地产销量创历史新高，全年销售额有望突破18万亿，创历史记录，楼市大年已经提前预定。但是随着流动性发生变化，各地纷纷上调房贷利率，部分城市甚至计划暂定二手房贷款，贷款难和贷款贵已是大势所趋，势必会打击购房积极性，购房窗口期逐渐关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2824,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4627101,"commentId":"4627101","gmtCreate":1623120100861,"gmtModify":1663228169637,"authorId":3576391338782613,"author":{"id":3576391338782613,"idStr":"3576391338782613","authorId":3576391338782613,"name":"JackyLove","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca9a8a9b23114d17a2580e761155d47","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"indiv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