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LittleGuiLin
2021-06-01

Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.

A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplay cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption

“帆起”代表全球经济的共振复苏，以及投资者风险偏好提升，“逐浪高”代表市场上行动能将逐渐增强，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。全球经济共振复苏，通胀扰动高点已过，国内政

A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplay cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":119087242,"tweetId":"119087242","gmtCreate":1622508898386,"gmtModify":1704185265624,"author":{"id":3575540187585339,"idStr":"3575540187585339","authorId":3575540187585339,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.</body></html>","text":"Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119087242","repostId":1186284203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186284203","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"“一号在手，投资无忧！”此微信公众号为中信证券研究报告权威发布平台，力求信息及时、准确，是您投资好帮手！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中信证券研究","id":"1010577552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b"},"pubTimestamp":1622508290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186284203?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplay cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186284203","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"“帆起”代表全球经济的共振复苏，以及投资者风险偏好提升，“逐浪高”代表市场上行动能将逐渐增强，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。全球经济共振复苏，通胀扰动高点已过，国内政","content":"\"Sailing\" represents the resonant recovery of the global economy and the improvement of investors' risk appetite. \"Chasing the waves\" represents that the momentum in the market will gradually increase. A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there is more room in the fourth quarter. The global economy is resonating and recovering, the high point of inflation disturbance has passed, domestic policies have been intensively implemented, macro liquidity is stable, and market liquidity is abundant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase consumption in the fourth quarter. First of all, the vaccination rate is steadily increasing, the global economy will move from a dislocation recovery to a resonance recovery, the contradiction between supply and demand of bulk commodities will ease, and the high point of inflation expectation disturbance has passed. Secondly, while domestic policies \"do not make sharp turns\", intensive implementation of high-quality development policies such as innovation, green, and sharing has become an important point of view. Thirdly, in the second half of the year, macro liquidity will be loose externally and stable internally. The Federal Reserve is not expected to reduce the scale of bond purchases this year. Domestic monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and the credit cycle will slowly decline. It is judged that policy interest rates will not be adjusted; Market liquidity is still abundant, inter-bank interest rates are stable, and the relative allocation attractiveness of A shares is still strong. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year, of which foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations under the expectation of RMB appreciation. Finally, the profit of A-shares in the second half of the year is resilient, but the structural differentiation is obvious, the cycle is weakened, and growth is dominant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, pay attention to long-term space and valuation flexibility, focus on high-growth varieties in the third quarter, and increase the allocation of large consumer sectors in the fourth quarter.A-shares have entered a resonant upward period, and there is more room in the fourth quarter.In our annual investment strategy \"A-Share Market Investment Strategy in 2021: Slow Rising\" Trilogy \"released on November 17, 2020, we proposed that in 2021, A-shares will experience three stages: a rotational slow rise period, a calm period, and a resonant upward period. The market trend is consistent with our judgment: during the rotational slow rise period from November 2020 to the first quarter of this year, procyclical varieties led the gains; In the second quarter, the market entered a quiet period after inflation anxiety and liquidity expectations were revised downward. It is expected that in the second half of the year, A-shares will enter a resonant upward period under the global resonant recovery and the alleviation of inflation disturbance, with more room in the fourth quarter. This report follows and refines the analysis framework of the annual strategy report, integrates the four strategic systems of macro, industry, policy and theme, and adopts quantitative and behavioral finance methods to systematically look forward to the investment opportunities of A shares in the second half of 2021.The global economy has resonated and recovered, and the high point of inflation expectations has passed.Virus variants and the epidemic in India do not change the general trend of global vaccination control: it is expected that the vaccination rate in the United States and the United Kingdom will exceed 60% in June, and European countries such as Germany and France will also exceed this level from September to October; Vaccination in emerging markets except China will accelerate in the fourth quarter of this year.On the one hand, the dislocation of overseas economic recovery is gradually corrected, and the second half of the year will move towards a resonant recovery: developed economies are limited by the willingness to vaccinate, the speed of vaccination is declining, and demand recovery and policy withdrawal are slow; However, the recovery momentum of emerging economies has been relatively strengthened, and the supply-side constraints of bulk commodities have eased. On the other hand, in the second half of the year, domestic manufacturing investment picked up, service industry demand recovered, and exports continued to be high, supporting the stable and improving economy. It is expected that GDP in the second to fourth quarters of this year will grow by 5.7 ~ 5.9% on an annualized basis compared with 2019, slightly improving quarter by quarter.In terms of inflation, it is expected that most of the bulk prices marked in RMB have hit the high point of the year in May, and the domestic PPI will fall from the high point of about 7% in May to between 3% and 4% at the end of the year; The bulk price denominated in US dollars is also expected to peak and fall in the third quarter. The high point of inflation's market disturbance has passed, and the constraints on monetary policy at home and abroad will gradually ease.Intensive implementation of policies, high-quality development has become an important point of view.1) The pressure on upstream price increases has eased. It is expected that the Politburo meeting in July will set the tone of \"no sharp turns\" in macro policies. Finance will be oriented to stabilize leverage, monetary policy will be stable and neutral, and fiscal policy will focus on implementation.2) High-quality development policies such as innovation, green, and sharing are important highlights in the second half of the year: In terms of innovation, it is expected that national science and technology medium-and long-term plans and anti-monopoly policies are expected to be introduced one after another, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of Internet platforms; In terms of green, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality plans are expected to be released in June, and the new energy industry will benefit the most clearly; In terms of sharing, common prosperity may be a new keyword after a well-off society in an all-round way.3) In terms of state-owned enterprise reform, policies such as optimizing corporate layout and strengthening medium-and long-term incentive mechanisms may be introduced one after another this year to improve the operating efficiency of state-owned enterprises.4) The implementation of capital market reform is deepening. It is expected that policies such as ESG and green finance will be introduced in the second half of this year, and the comprehensive registration system will be implemented in the first quarter of next year.Macro liquidity is loose externally and stable internally, and market liquidity is still abundant.On the one hand, inflation constraints have eased, and the Federal Reserve, which is more concerned about employment, will not discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases until the end of the third quarter at the earliest. The European and Japanese banks will act even later. It is estimated that the three major central banks will expand their balance sheets in the four quarters from 2021Q3 to 2022Q2 by 8700/6400/6400/440 billion US dollars. The US Dollar Index is expected to be weak in the second and third quarters, with a bottom range of 88 ~ 89. At the end of the third quarter, it is expected to turn from weak to strong under the expectation of marginal tightening by the Federal Reserve, and may rise to above 92 in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the RMB will rise first and then fall against the US dollar, running in the range of 6.2 ~ 6.6 this year, and reaching a high of 6.2 in the third quarter.On the other hand, in the second half of the year, domestic monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and the credit cycle will slowly fall back. It is expected that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted. In the inter-bank market, it is expected that DR007 will continue to fluctuate around the central 2.2% in the third quarter. After the margin tightens in the fourth quarter, 2.2% will become the lower limit of DR007 fluctuations; At the same time, it is expected that the yield to maturity of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the second half of the year will fluctuate widely in the range of 3.0% ~ 3.4%. In terms of market liquidity, under the background of preventing real estate bubbles and approaching the transition period of new asset management regulations, residents still have a strong motivation to increase their equity assets.The profit growth rate is structurally differentiated, and the cycle is weakened and growth dominates。Under the general environment of steady macroeconomic recovery, there are three most important factors affecting the growth rate of A-share profits in the second half of the year: the correction after the excessive rise in commodity prices, the continued growth of growth manufacturing capital expenditures, residents' disposable income and non-housing credit The increase in growth rate drives the recovery of optional consumption.1) Overall, the profit growth rate of the CSI 800 non-financial sector is expected to reach 32% in 2021.2) Structurally, the growth rates of industry, consumption, TMT and medicine are expected to be 37%, 28%, 14% and 31% respectively. The consumer sector will contribute the most to the growth rate of non-financial net profits in the second half of the year.3) In terms of rhythm, the single-quarter net profit of the industrial sector reached a high point in the second quarter of 2021; In the third quarter, the relative profit trend of the two major growth sectors of TMT and pharmaceuticals will be obviously dominant, while the pro-cyclical logic of the market will fade; From the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, optional consumer goods will lead the large consumer sector, ushering in a sustained upward trend of relative prosperity.A-share funds are expected to have a net inflow of 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year, and foreign capital may continue to exceed expectations.Based on the above research and judgment, we calculate the A-share capital flow in combination with investor behavior. The net capital flow forecast of various investors in the second half of the year is as follows:1) In terms of foreign capital, the RMB exchange rate first strengthened and then weakened. The allocation value of A-shares in emerging markets is still obvious, and the net inflow of northbound funds is expected to exceed 170 billion yuan;2) The positions of private equity funds are already on the high side. Following the surge in scale in the first quarter, the net inflow is expected to be 140 billion yuan;3) Insurance funds and wealth management subsidiaries slightly reduced their holdings in the first quarter, and will resume the rhythm of small inflows in the future, with a net inflow of 150 billion yuan expected in the second half of the year;4) As the market stabilizes, public funds have recovered, existing redemptions are stable, and the net inflow is expected to be 110 billion yuan;5) Industrial capital will continue to reduce its holdings based on the large scale of lifting the ban, but many first-and-a-half funds will also flow into the bottom, with an expected outflow of 120 billion yuan in the second half of the year;6) The scale of IPO issuance this year is close to last year's, and the scale of fundraising in the second half of the year is relatively large, expected to be 230 billion yuan. To sum up, it is estimated that the net inflow of A-share funds in the second half of 2021 will be approximately 220 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the third and fourth quarters will be 60 billion yuan and 160 billion yuan.Resonance upward in the second half of the year, and there is more room in the fourth quarter.Combined with the above forecast, we scored the long and short impact of overseas factors, fundamentals, policies, and liquidity on the general trend of A-shares in each quarter, and calculated the comprehensive score by weighting. Among them, the scores in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 are 2.8 and 5.4; The scores in the first and second quarters of 2022 are 1.9 and 1.6. A-shares are still in a medium-and long-term slow growth channel. Inflation expectations have peaked and fallen, fundamental disturbances have eased, and liquidity expectations have been restored. In the third quarter of this year, A-shares are expected to rise slowly amid shocks; The global economy is resonating and recovering, the implementation of domestic policies is accelerating, and market liquidity is still loose. In the fourth quarter of this year, A-shares have more room for upside.Configuration suggestions: downplay cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption.1) Strengthen growth allocation in the third quarter.In the third quarter, the haze of inflation gradually dissipated, liquidity is expected to recover, and the growth sector is obviously dominant compared with the profit trend. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to more growth sectors that bring market value space and valuation flexibility by industrial space. Among them, growth manufacturing focuses on new energy, independent and controllable technology, national defense security and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing; Growth consumption focuses on cosmetics, medical beauty, duty-free, sportswear, new tobacco, etc. In terms of themes, it is recommended to benefit from the energy security theme expected from the implementation outline of each line of \"carbon neutrality\", as well as the national defense aircraft and bomb sector whose second quarter report is expected to exceed expectations and is catalyzed by overseas instability.2) Strategically increase consumption in the fourth quarter.In addition to continuing to adhere to the growth allocation in the fourth quarter, the global economy resonated and recovered, and the growth rate of domestic residents' disposable income and non-housing credit increased to drive the recovery of optional consumption, which will become a new bright spot of economic growth, and the boom trend is expected to continue until the first half of next year. Three main lines are recommended for specific configuration: first, e-commerce; Second, brand clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals with a relatively high proportion of online sales; The third is traditional optional durable goods, such as home appliances, automobiles, consumer electronics, etc. In terms of themes, it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Free Trade Port and digital renminbi.Risk Factors:The global epidemic has repeated and vaccination has fallen short of expectations; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of domestic economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad tightened ahead of schedule than","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplay cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplay cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1010577552\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n中信证券研究 \n2021-06-01 08:44\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n\"Sailing\" represents the resonant recovery of the global economy and the improvement of investors' risk appetite. \"Chasing the waves\" represents that the momentum in the market will gradually increase. A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there is more room in the fourth quarter. The global economy is resonating and recovering, the high point of inflation disturbance has passed, domestic policies have been intensively implemented, macro liquidity is stable, and market liquidity is abundant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase consumption in the fourth quarter. First of all, the vaccination rate is steadily increasing, the global economy will move from a dislocation recovery to a resonance recovery, the contradiction between supply and demand of bulk commodities will ease, and the high point of inflation expectation disturbance has passed. Secondly, while domestic policies \"do not make sharp turns\", intensive implementation of high-quality development policies such as innovation, green, and sharing has become an important point of view. Thirdly, in the second half of the year, macro liquidity will be loose externally and stable internally. The Federal Reserve is not expected to reduce the scale of bond purchases this year. Domestic monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and the credit cycle will slowly decline. It is judged that policy interest rates will not be adjusted; Market liquidity is still abundant, inter-bank interest rates are stable, and the relative allocation attractiveness of A shares is still strong. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year, of which foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations under the expectation of RMB appreciation. Finally, the profit of A-shares in the second half of the year is resilient, but the structural differentiation is obvious, the cycle is weakened, and growth is dominant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, pay attention to long-term space and valuation flexibility, focus on high-growth varieties in the third quarter, and increase the allocation of large consumer sectors in the fourth quarter.A-shares have entered a resonant upward period, and there is more room in the fourth quarter.In our annual investment strategy \"A-Share Market Investment Strategy in 2021: Slow Rising\" Trilogy \"released on November 17, 2020, we proposed that in 2021, A-shares will experience three stages: a rotational slow rise period, a calm period, and a resonant upward period. The market trend is consistent with our judgment: during the rotational slow rise period from November 2020 to the first quarter of this year, procyclical varieties led the gains; In the second quarter, the market entered a quiet period after inflation anxiety and liquidity expectations were revised downward. It is expected that in the second half of the year, A-shares will enter a resonant upward period under the global resonant recovery and the alleviation of inflation disturbance, with more room in the fourth quarter. This report follows and refines the analysis framework of the annual strategy report, integrates the four strategic systems of macro, industry, policy and theme, and adopts quantitative and behavioral finance methods to systematically look forward to the investment opportunities of A shares in the second half of 2021.The global economy has resonated and recovered, and the high point of inflation expectations has passed.Virus variants and the epidemic in India do not change the general trend of global vaccination control: it is expected that the vaccination rate in the United States and the United Kingdom will exceed 60% in June, and European countries such as Germany and France will also exceed this level from September to October; Vaccination in emerging markets except China will accelerate in the fourth quarter of this year.On the one hand, the dislocation of overseas economic recovery is gradually corrected, and the second half of the year will move towards a resonant recovery: developed economies are limited by the willingness to vaccinate, the speed of vaccination is declining, and demand recovery and policy withdrawal are slow; However, the recovery momentum of emerging economies has been relatively strengthened, and the supply-side constraints of bulk commodities have eased. On the other hand, in the second half of the year, domestic manufacturing investment picked up, service industry demand recovered, and exports continued to be high, supporting the stable and improving economy. It is expected that GDP in the second to fourth quarters of this year will grow by 5.7 ~ 5.9% on an annualized basis compared with 2019, slightly improving quarter by quarter.In terms of inflation, it is expected that most of the bulk prices marked in RMB have hit the high point of the year in May, and the domestic PPI will fall from the high point of about 7% in May to between 3% and 4% at the end of the year; The bulk price denominated in US dollars is also expected to peak and fall in the third quarter. The high point of inflation's market disturbance has passed, and the constraints on monetary policy at home and abroad will gradually ease.Intensive implementation of policies, high-quality development has become an important point of view.1) The pressure on upstream price increases has eased. It is expected that the Politburo meeting in July will set the tone of \"no sharp turns\" in macro policies. Finance will be oriented to stabilize leverage, monetary policy will be stable and neutral, and fiscal policy will focus on implementation.2) High-quality development policies such as innovation, green, and sharing are important highlights in the second half of the year: In terms of innovation, it is expected that national science and technology medium-and long-term plans and anti-monopoly policies are expected to be introduced one after another, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of Internet platforms; In terms of green, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality plans are expected to be released in June, and the new energy industry will benefit the most clearly; In terms of sharing, common prosperity may be a new keyword after a well-off society in an all-round way.3) In terms of state-owned enterprise reform, policies such as optimizing corporate layout and strengthening medium-and long-term incentive mechanisms may be introduced one after another this year to improve the operating efficiency of state-owned enterprises.4) The implementation of capital market reform is deepening. It is expected that policies such as ESG and green finance will be introduced in the second half of this year, and the comprehensive registration system will be implemented in the first quarter of next year.Macro liquidity is loose externally and stable internally, and market liquidity is still abundant.On the one hand, inflation constraints have eased, and the Federal Reserve, which is more concerned about employment, will not discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases until the end of the third quarter at the earliest. The European and Japanese banks will act even later. It is estimated that the three major central banks will expand their balance sheets in the four quarters from 2021Q3 to 2022Q2 by 8700/6400/6400/440 billion US dollars. The US Dollar Index is expected to be weak in the second and third quarters, with a bottom range of 88 ~ 89. At the end of the third quarter, it is expected to turn from weak to strong under the expectation of marginal tightening by the Federal Reserve, and may rise to above 92 in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the RMB will rise first and then fall against the US dollar, running in the range of 6.2 ~ 6.6 this year, and reaching a high of 6.2 in the third quarter.On the other hand, in the second half of the year, domestic monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and the credit cycle will slowly fall back. It is expected that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted. In the inter-bank market, it is expected that DR007 will continue to fluctuate around the central 2.2% in the third quarter. After the margin tightens in the fourth quarter, 2.2% will become the lower limit of DR007 fluctuations; At the same time, it is expected that the yield to maturity of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the second half of the year will fluctuate widely in the range of 3.0% ~ 3.4%. In terms of market liquidity, under the background of preventing real estate bubbles and approaching the transition period of new asset management regulations, residents still have a strong motivation to increase their equity assets.The profit growth rate is structurally differentiated, and the cycle is weakened and growth dominates。Under the general environment of steady macroeconomic recovery, there are three most important factors affecting the growth rate of A-share profits in the second half of the year: the correction after the excessive rise in commodity prices, the continued growth of growth manufacturing capital expenditures, residents' disposable income and non-housing credit The increase in growth rate drives the recovery of optional consumption.1) Overall, the profit growth rate of the CSI 800 non-financial sector is expected to reach 32% in 2021.2) Structurally, the growth rates of industry, consumption, TMT and medicine are expected to be 37%, 28%, 14% and 31% respectively. The consumer sector will contribute the most to the growth rate of non-financial net profits in the second half of the year.3) In terms of rhythm, the single-quarter net profit of the industrial sector reached a high point in the second quarter of 2021; In the third quarter, the relative profit trend of the two major growth sectors of TMT and pharmaceuticals will be obviously dominant, while the pro-cyclical logic of the market will fade; From the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, optional consumer goods will lead the large consumer sector, ushering in a sustained upward trend of relative prosperity.A-share funds are expected to have a net inflow of 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year, and foreign capital may continue to exceed expectations.Based on the above research and judgment, we calculate the A-share capital flow in combination with investor behavior. The net capital flow forecast of various investors in the second half of the year is as follows:1) In terms of foreign capital, the RMB exchange rate first strengthened and then weakened. The allocation value of A-shares in emerging markets is still obvious, and the net inflow of northbound funds is expected to exceed 170 billion yuan;2) The positions of private equity funds are already on the high side. Following the surge in scale in the first quarter, the net inflow is expected to be 140 billion yuan;3) Insurance funds and wealth management subsidiaries slightly reduced their holdings in the first quarter, and will resume the rhythm of small inflows in the future, with a net inflow of 150 billion yuan expected in the second half of the year;4) As the market stabilizes, public funds have recovered, existing redemptions are stable, and the net inflow is expected to be 110 billion yuan;5) Industrial capital will continue to reduce its holdings based on the large scale of lifting the ban, but many first-and-a-half funds will also flow into the bottom, with an expected outflow of 120 billion yuan in the second half of the year;6) The scale of IPO issuance this year is close to last year's, and the scale of fundraising in the second half of the year is relatively large, expected to be 230 billion yuan. To sum up, it is estimated that the net inflow of A-share funds in the second half of 2021 will be approximately 220 billion yuan, and the net inflow in the third and fourth quarters will be 60 billion yuan and 160 billion yuan.Resonance upward in the second half of the year, and there is more room in the fourth quarter.Combined with the above forecast, we scored the long and short impact of overseas factors, fundamentals, policies, and liquidity on the general trend of A-shares in each quarter, and calculated the comprehensive score by weighting. Among them, the scores in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 are 2.8 and 5.4; The scores in the first and second quarters of 2022 are 1.9 and 1.6. A-shares are still in a medium-and long-term slow growth channel. Inflation expectations have peaked and fallen, fundamental disturbances have eased, and liquidity expectations have been restored. In the third quarter of this year, A-shares are expected to rise slowly amid shocks; The global economy is resonating and recovering, the implementation of domestic policies is accelerating, and market liquidity is still loose. In the fourth quarter of this year, A-shares have more room for upside.Configuration suggestions: downplay cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption.1) Strengthen growth allocation in the third quarter.In the third quarter, the haze of inflation gradually dissipated, liquidity is expected to recover, and the growth sector is obviously dominant compared with the profit trend. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to more growth sectors that bring market value space and valuation flexibility by industrial space. Among them, growth manufacturing focuses on new energy, independent and controllable technology, national defense security and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing; Growth consumption focuses on cosmetics, medical beauty, duty-free, sportswear, new tobacco, etc. In terms of themes, it is recommended to benefit from the energy security theme expected from the implementation outline of each line of \"carbon neutrality\", as well as the national defense aircraft and bomb sector whose second quarter report is expected to exceed expectations and is catalyzed by overseas instability.2) Strategically increase consumption in the fourth quarter.In addition to continuing to adhere to the growth allocation in the fourth quarter, the global economy resonated and recovered, and the growth rate of domestic residents' disposable income and non-housing credit increased to drive the recovery of optional consumption, which will become a new bright spot of economic growth, and the boom trend is expected to continue until the first half of next year. Three main lines are recommended for specific configuration: first, e-commerce; Second, brand clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals with a relatively high proportion of online sales; The third is traditional optional durable goods, such as home appliances, automobiles, consumer electronics, etc. In terms of themes, it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Free Trade Port and digital renminbi.Risk Factors:The global epidemic has repeated and vaccination has fallen short of expectations; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of domestic economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad tightened ahead of schedule than\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186284203","content_text":"“帆起”代表全球经济的共振复苏，以及投资者风险偏好提升，“逐浪高”代表市场上行动能将逐渐增强，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。全球经济共振复苏，通胀扰动高点已过，国内政策密集落地，宏观流动性平稳，市场流动性充裕，配置上建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配消费。首先，疫苗接种率稳步提升，全球经济将从错位复苏走向共振复苏，大宗商品供需矛盾缓解，通胀预期扰动高点已过。其次，国内政策“不急转弯”的同时，密集落地的创新、绿色、共享等高质量发展政策成重要看点。再次，下半年宏观流动性外松内稳，美联储今年预计不会下调购债规模，国内货币政策保持稳健中性，信用周期缓慢下行，判断不会调整政策利率；市场流动性依然充裕，银行间利率水平稳定，A股相对配置吸引力依然较强。预计下半年A股净流入资金规模达到2200亿元，其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。最后，A股下半年盈利有韧性，但结构分化明显，周期弱化，成长占优。配置上，建议淡化周期思维，重视长期空间和估值弹性，三季度聚焦高成长品种，四季度增配大消费板块。A股步入共振上行期，四季度空间更大。我们在2020年11月17日发布的年度投资策略《A股市场2021年投资策略：慢涨“三部曲“》中提出，2021年A股将经历轮动慢涨期、平静期、共振上行期3个阶段，市场走势与我们判断相符：在2020年11月到今年一季度的轮动慢涨期中，顺周期品种领涨；二季度市场在通胀焦虑和流动性预期下修后进入平静期。预计下半年A股将在全球共振复苏和通胀扰动缓解下步入共振上行期，四季度空间更大。本报告沿用并细化了年度策略报告的分析框架，整合了宏观、产业、政策、主题四大策略体系，同时采用了量化和行为金融的方法，系统展望2021年下半场A股的投资机会。全球经济共振复苏，通胀预期高点已过。病毒变种和印度疫情不改变全球疫苗接种控制疫情的大趋势：预计美国、英国在6月接种比例将超过60%，德国、法国等欧陆国家在9~10月也将超过这一水平；除中国外的新兴市场今年四季度接种将提速。一方面，海外经济复苏错位逐步修正，下半年将走向共振复苏：发达经济体受接种意愿限制，接种速度下降，需求恢复和政策退出缓慢；而新兴经济体恢复动能相对增强，大宗商品供给侧约束缓解。另一方面，国内下半年制造业投资回暖、服务业需求恢复、出口持续高景气支撑经济稳中向好，预计今年二~四季度GDP相对2019年年化增长5.7~5.9%，逐季小幅改善。通胀方面，预计人民币标价的大宗价格大都已在5月触及年内高点，国内PPI同比将从5月份的7%左右高点回落至年末的3%~4%之间；而美元标价的大宗价格预计也将在三季度见顶回落。通胀对市场扰动的高点已过，对国内外的货币政策约束也将逐步缓解。政策密集落地，高质量发展成重要看点。1）上游涨价压力已缓解，预计7月政治局会议对宏观政策“不急转弯”的定调不变，金融以稳杠杆为导向，货币政策稳健中性，财政政策重在落实。2）创新、绿色、共享等高质量发展政策是下半年重要看点：创新方面，预计国家科技中长期规划和反垄断政策有望陆续出台，有利于互联网平台的长期健康发展；绿色方面，碳达峰和碳中和方案有望于6月发布，新能源产业受益最明确；共享方面，共同富裕或为全面小康之后新的关键词。3）国企改革方面，今年优化企业布局、强化中长期激励机制等政策或陆续出台，改善国企经营效率。4）资本市场改革深化落实，预计ESG、绿色金融等政策有望在今年下半年出台，全面注册制于明年一季度落地。宏观流动性外松内稳，市场流动性依然充裕。一方面，通胀约束缓解，更关注就业的美联储最早三季度末才会讨论缩减购债规模，欧洲和日本央行的行动更晚，预计三大央行2021Q3~2022Q2四个季度扩表规模分别为8700/6400/6400/4400亿美元。预计美元指数二、三季度偏弱，底部区间在88~89，而在三季度末在美联储边际收紧预期下预计将由弱转强，四季度可能上行至92以上。预计人民币兑美元先升后贬，今年运行在6.2~6.6区间，并在三季度达到6.2的高点。另一方面，下半年国内货币政策保持稳健中性，信用周期缓慢回落，预计政策利率不调整。银行间市场方面，预计三季度DR007继续围绕中枢2.2%波动，四季度边际收紧后，2.2%将成为DR007波动的下限；同时，预计下半年10年国债到期收益率将在3.0%~3.4%区间宽幅震荡。市场流动性方面，在防范地产泡沫和资管新规过渡期截止渐近的背景下，居民相对增配权益资产的动力依然较强。盈利增速结构分化，周期弱化成长占优。宏观经济恢复稳健的大环境下，下半年影响A股盈利增速的最主要因素有3个：商品价格过快上涨后的修正、成长类制造资本开支持续增长、居民可支配收入和非房信贷增速提升驱动可选消费复苏。1）总体上，预计2021年中证800非金融板块盈利增速达到32%。2）结构上，工业、消费、TMT和医药增速预计分别为37%、28%、14%和31%，消费板块在下半年对非金融净利润增速贡献程度最大。3）节奏上，2021年二季度工业板块单季净利润规模达到高点；三季度TMT和医药两大成长板块相对盈利趋势会明显占优，同时市场顺周期逻辑淡化；而从四季度到明年上半年，可选消费品将引领大消费板块，迎来一轮持续的相对景气上行趋势。下半年A股资金预计净流入2200亿元，外资或继续超预期。以上述研判为基准，我们结合投资者行为测算A股资金流动，各类投资者下半年资金净流动预测如下：1）外资方面，人民币汇率先强后弱，A股在新兴市场中配置价值依然明显，预计北向资金净流入超1700亿元；2）私募基金仓位已偏高，继一季度规模激增后，预计净流入规模1400亿元；3）险资和理财子一季度小幅减持，后续将恢复小幅流入的节奏，预计下半年净流入1500亿元；4）市场企稳下公募基金新发回暖，存量赎回稳定，预计净流入1100亿元；5）产业资本基于较大的解禁规模继续净减持，但诸多一级半资金也会流入托底，预计下半年流出1200亿元；6）今年IPO发行规模与去年接近，下半年募资规模偏大，预计为2300亿元。综上所述，预计2021年下半年A股资金净流入规模约2200亿元，三、四两个季度净流入为600亿元、1600亿元。下半年共振上行，四季度空间更大。结合上述预测，我们分别就海外因素、基本面、政策、流动性在各季度对A股大势的多空影响进行了打分，并加权计算了综合得分。其中2021年三、四季度得分为2.8、5.4；2022年一、二季度的得分是1.9、1.6。A股依然处于中长期慢涨通道中，通胀预期见顶回落，基本面扰动缓解，流动性预期修复，今年三季度A股预计在震荡中缓慢上行；全球经济共振复苏，国内政策落地提速，市场流动性依然宽松，今年四季度A股上行空间更大。配置建议：淡化周期思维，聚焦成长及消费。1）三季度强化成长配置。三季度通胀阴霾渐散，流动性预期修复，而成长类板块相对盈利趋势明显占优。建议继续关注更多由产业空间带来市值空间和估值弹性的成长板块。其中成长类制造关注新能源、科技自主可控、国防安全和智能制造；成长类消费关注化妆品、医美、免税、运动服饰、新型烟草等。主题方面，推荐受益于“碳中和”各条线实施纲要出台预期的能源安全主题，以及二季报有望超预期且受海外不稳定局势催化的国防机弹板块。2）四季度战略增配消费。四季度除了继续坚持成长配置外，全球经济共振复苏，国内居民可支配收入和非房信贷增速提升驱动可选消费复苏，将成为经济增长的新亮点，且景气趋势有望持续到明年上半年。具体配置推荐3条主线：一是电商；二是线上销售占比较高的品牌服饰、美妆日化等品类；三是传统的可选耐用品，例如家电、汽车、消费电子等。主题方面，建议关注上海自贸港和数字人民币。风险因素：全球疫情反复、疫苗接种不及预期；中美科技贸易领域摩擦加剧；国内经济复苏进度不及预期；国内外宏观流动性超预期提前收紧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2397,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["BOTB.UK"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":34,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}