?-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

1
Comment
Favorite

Kiwiwilu
2021-06-23

Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?

买自己买不到的东西 2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“

Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":121072816,"tweetId":"121072816","gmtCreate":1624446843735,"gmtModify":1703836934246,"author":{"id":3576110626320378,"idStr":"3576110626320378","authorId":3576110626320378,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121072816","repostId":1134186261,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134186261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624427164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134186261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 13:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134186261","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“","content":"Buy things you can't buy. In 2020, it's not only \"core assets\" that will become famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" that will be popular.Usually after a crisis, the trend of economic recovery can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These economic terminology discussions are often prevalent in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" under the epidemic unexpectedly went out of the circle.Compared with the cold explanation at the academic level, this time the public really felt the division between the upward and downward forces. The rich have lined up in luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities have repeatedly hit record highs, while the bottom is faced with wages that cannot outperform inflation, and the year-on-year increase in national rents even turned negative.The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".In an era characterized by stock economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the environment of the times has quietly changed, the opportunity is not waiting for it to arrive. Only those who adjust their attack direction along with the evolution of development ideas can really seize the opportunity.Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? In response to this problem, we are fortunate to work withLi, Chief Economist of Zhongtai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Start a conversation. The investment logic in the era of differentiation is vividly refined into Li Xunlei's new book\"The Power of Trends\", the book is based on a top-down deductive method, from macro policy to micro investment, to foresee various market trends.As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying what you can't afford\".Under the background at that time, with the rapid economic growth and the substantial increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of shortage economy has passed, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Except for durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, etc., there are almost no assets allocated at home, and the number of tradable stocks in the country is only more than 3 trillion yuan in market value.That is, there is already a surplus of goods, but there is still a shortage of assets. This means that people will snap up assets in the future, just as they snapped up durable consumer goods a decade ago.People who understand the leverage of opportunities don't just explain it with \"good luck\", but there is actually a solid macro logic support behind it.Among many macroeconomic researchers, some views are either too esoteric and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. For decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can really explain profound things in simple terms. The phrase \"buy what you can't afford\", behind the seemingly simple view, lies profound insights into the macro economy.Nowadays, China's economy has evolved from shortage to commodity surplus, capital surplus, and currency surplus. Under the background of the \"three major surplus\", Li XunleiIn 2018, I began to propose to \"buy things that I can't buy\"。 So what is \"something that can't be bought\"? How to invest in \"things that can't be bought\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.The following is the text of the interview.01 Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation?reporter: Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investment in the Era of Differentiation\", \"Stock Economy Era\" and \"Differentiation\" are closely related. How do you make the judgment on the arrival of \"Stock Economy Era\"?Li Xunlei: To be precise, what I am referring to is not the \"era of stock economy\", but the \"era dominated by stock economy\". There is a difference between the two.China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth of about 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy, so it is only said that China has the characteristics of stock economy.The emergence of these characteristics has made many people unaccustomed to it. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a feature of the stock economy. They feel that it is useless to work hard for a long time, and it is easy to fail to start a business. There will be a phenomenon of 28-28 differentiation.In the past, Chinese enterprises' investment was very vigorous, and private investment increased by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The investment of private enterprises is characterized by pro-cyclicality. When the cycle goes down, it shrinks, and when the cycle rises, it expands.Therefore, in 2017, I put forward the concept of \"stock economy\" at a seminar.At present, China has entered a stage dominated by the stock economy. This stage is characterized by the constant strength of the strong, the survival of the fittest, and the trade-off of one. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".In the past, the \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascend to heaven\" and \"what is small is beautiful\". In the past, we used to say \"diaosi counterattack\". Although this word is indecent, it reflects that it is an era with more opportunities.reporter: Under the background of differentiation, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?Li Xunlei: There are still opportunities, mainly structural opportunities. From the perspective of historical evolution, China entered the early 21st centuryCommodity surplusAt that time, assets were still relatively scarce, so in 2006, I proposed to buy something I couldn't afford, that is, investment plus leverage. However, when everyone increased the proportion of asset allocation, more than ten years later, the followingSurplus of total assetsThe age of.In the era of surplus commodities and surplus assets, in order to stimulate the economy, the government authorities will definitely overissue currency. The result of overissuing currency is of courseMonetary aggregate surplus, so right now isAn era of triple excess superposition。However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be grasped are called \"structural opportunities\" under the background of fewer total opportunities, because this kind of opportunity exists for a long time.reporter: You emphasized before that \"investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side in the future\". What is the main logic behind it?Li Xunlei: The main logic is that there is a shortage of effective demand in China at present, and there is a structural shortage in the case of surplus currency. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From the investment point of view, as long as \"structural shortage\" areas are found, they are opportunities for profit.In the future, more importantly, what you are supplying.For example, the supply of rice, its total demand is limited; Or when the price of pigs rises, everyone thinks that the income from raising pigs is good, so they raise pigs one after another, the supply increases, and the price of pigs falls. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of China's consumption upgrading, pork consumption is expected to decline. On the one hand, this is due to the increase in income and consumption upgrading, and the consumption of high-priced meat such as beef will increase; On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but it consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.For example, Dutch lithography is not sold to China, which is a shortage of \"core technology\"; Another example is that some high-end commodities of national brands also have shortages, that is, demand continues to rise and is not sensitive to prices, but the supply side is still insufficient.reporter: In the current period of domestic economic slowdown and shifting gears, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?Li Xunlei: In fact, in every industry, as long as the so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not completely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, as far as \"crude steel\" is concerned, there is indeed excess production capacity and total volume.In addition, although we say that the domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, the demand in some areas is still sufficient. For example, the biomedical industry will have a relatively high growth potential in the future, especially some drugs they have developed to treat cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope that their life span can be extended, because no matter how much money they earn, it is difficult to buy an elixir to prolong life. Under the same logic, because we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to retain their youth, the demand of the medical beauty industry will emerge.02 How to look at real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?reporter: After the data of the seventh census came out, you think the two trends of population aging and regional structural imbalance need to be vigilant. Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?Li Xunlei: There is a surplus in the total amount, coupled with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decline. Because after aging, people are more willing to invest money in places with short maturities, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are reluctant to invest in real estate. In addition, the aging of the population will also lead to a decline in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.But structural opportunities still exist,Judging from the seventh census, the population is still concentrated in first-tier cities and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed. In the future, the population of these cities will still have a net inflow, so it is still possible to lay out real estate in these big cities, but the problem is that the current valuation is too high, which is a characteristic of China's housing prices.This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage money and buy property, while westerners don't have that great demand in this respect, which is closely related to our cultural background in East Asia.reporter: Do you think the recent inflation trend has imposed great constraints on the Fed's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term dilemma or a long-term dilemma? What do you think of gold this year?Li Xunlei: The main goal of the Fed is employment rather than inflation. If non-farm payrolls fail to meet expectations, then the Fed's monetary tightening time will still be delayed, but I think the \"taper\" action of the Fed will be at the end of the third quarter or the fourth quarter It is possible to do it.As far as I am concerned, the current inflation is likely to be a short-to medium-term phenomenon, lasting for more than one year. This kind of inflation may be a \"supplementary increase\" for the past deflation due to currency excess issuance, and it is also an emotional catharsis. Judging from the water level of the U.S. financial market after the Federal Reserve releases water, it should not be high, because the U.S. ability to create money through commercial banks is relatively weak; On the contrary, Chinese commercial banks have a strong motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China doesn't expand its balance sheet much, so it doesn't need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve does.As for gold, the price of gold depends on the level of real interest rate in the short term. If the real interest rate goes down, it will be beneficial to gold. In the long run, it depends on the degree of excessive currency issuance. Gold rose a lot in 2018-20. It is normal to adjust this year, but the future prospects are still promising.reporter: In addition to gold, Bitcoin also performed amazingly under last year's \"water release\" market. What do you think of Bitcoin's subsequent investment value?Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is relatively volatile, which makes it difficult to become a currencyTherefore, it cannot be used in transaction settlement. But after all, it can stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its position is there.In the future, it may be a limited range of investment varieties, more like an asset.03Why look at the macro?reporter: Many individual investors and some institutional investors don't pay much attention to macro. What do you think is the significance of macro for investment?Li Xunlei: Macro research is a typical top-down research. Macro research allows you to judge the impact of the general environment on yourself through fiscal policy and monetary policy. The reason why many institutions are not worthy of macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are easy to obtain, and people's demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.But I don't think the macro can simply stay at some comments on CPI and PPI, or comment on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this macro pattern is too small. The macro-research in my mind should not only have historical depth, but also have practical application and operability in reality.But if the macro is not in place, it is making noise for the market, always just interpreting policies and making technical analysis of high-frequency data. I prefer to see macro research guide policies from the results, rather than following them.I also often say that when we look at the macro, we should use a telescope, not a microscope. The microscope sees all the details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model, and it pays more attention to \"top-level architectural design\".reporter: In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how to understand the position and role of macro?Li Xunlei: I think we must first point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Fed's interest rate goes up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. But from a longer-term perspective, the growth rate of GDP continues to decline. This is where my macro analysis is different,Focus on the big cycle of social development。For another example, when I was studying history, I found that all previous dynasty changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a big agricultural country. When the land rent of tenant farmers' cultivated land increases, farmers' income will decrease, resulting in the gradual differentiation of social income. Long-term peace also means that the rules of the game will remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, and eventually trigger war.After that, the top-down research will explore various industries, and then explore how individual choices are affected by these macro and meso factors.reporter: Finally, what is your judgment on fiscal policy and monetary policy in the future?Li Xunlei: I think the finance will still be tight. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage, because we now want to maintain long-term economic stability, and fiscal expenditure must flow slowly.Then, in the next few years, under the downward trend of economic growth, monetary policy needs to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too active, monetary policy cannot be too tight. If the finance is tight and the currency is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of steady growth. Therefore, when the finance is \"tight\", the currency can be moderately loosened.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n格隆汇投资学苑 \n2021-06-23 13:46\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBuy things you can't buy. In 2020, it's not only \"core assets\" that will become famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" that will be popular.Usually after a crisis, the trend of economic recovery can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These economic terminology discussions are often prevalent in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" under the epidemic unexpectedly went out of the circle.Compared with the cold explanation at the academic level, this time the public really felt the division between the upward and downward forces. The rich have lined up in luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities have repeatedly hit record highs, while the bottom is faced with wages that cannot outperform inflation, and the year-on-year increase in national rents even turned negative.The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".In an era characterized by stock economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the environment of the times has quietly changed, the opportunity is not waiting for it to arrive. Only those who adjust their attack direction along with the evolution of development ideas can really seize the opportunity.Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? In response to this problem, we are fortunate to work withLi, Chief Economist of Zhongtai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Start a conversation. The investment logic in the era of differentiation is vividly refined into Li Xunlei's new book\"The Power of Trends\", the book is based on a top-down deductive method, from macro policy to micro investment, to foresee various market trends.As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying what you can't afford\".Under the background at that time, with the rapid economic growth and the substantial increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of shortage economy has passed, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Except for durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, etc., there are almost no assets allocated at home, and the number of tradable stocks in the country is only more than 3 trillion yuan in market value.That is, there is already a surplus of goods, but there is still a shortage of assets. This means that people will snap up assets in the future, just as they snapped up durable consumer goods a decade ago.People who understand the leverage of opportunities don't just explain it with \"good luck\", but there is actually a solid macro logic support behind it.Among many macroeconomic researchers, some views are either too esoteric and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. For decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can really explain profound things in simple terms. The phrase \"buy what you can't afford\", behind the seemingly simple view, lies profound insights into the macro economy.Nowadays, China's economy has evolved from shortage to commodity surplus, capital surplus, and currency surplus. Under the background of the \"three major surplus\", Li XunleiIn 2018, I began to propose to \"buy things that I can't buy\"。 So what is \"something that can't be bought\"? How to invest in \"things that can't be bought\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.The following is the text of the interview.01 Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation?reporter: Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investment in the Era of Differentiation\", \"Stock Economy Era\" and \"Differentiation\" are closely related. How do you make the judgment on the arrival of \"Stock Economy Era\"?Li Xunlei: To be precise, what I am referring to is not the \"era of stock economy\", but the \"era dominated by stock economy\". There is a difference between the two.China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth of about 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy, so it is only said that China has the characteristics of stock economy.The emergence of these characteristics has made many people unaccustomed to it. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a feature of the stock economy. They feel that it is useless to work hard for a long time, and it is easy to fail to start a business. There will be a phenomenon of 28-28 differentiation.In the past, Chinese enterprises' investment was very vigorous, and private investment increased by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The investment of private enterprises is characterized by pro-cyclicality. When the cycle goes down, it shrinks, and when the cycle rises, it expands.Therefore, in 2017, I put forward the concept of \"stock economy\" at a seminar.At present, China has entered a stage dominated by the stock economy. This stage is characterized by the constant strength of the strong, the survival of the fittest, and the trade-off of one. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".In the past, the \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascend to heaven\" and \"what is small is beautiful\". In the past, we used to say \"diaosi counterattack\". Although this word is indecent, it reflects that it is an era with more opportunities.reporter: Under the background of differentiation, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?Li Xunlei: There are still opportunities, mainly structural opportunities. From the perspective of historical evolution, China entered the early 21st centuryCommodity surplusAt that time, assets were still relatively scarce, so in 2006, I proposed to buy something I couldn't afford, that is, investment plus leverage. However, when everyone increased the proportion of asset allocation, more than ten years later, the followingSurplus of total assetsThe age of.In the era of surplus commodities and surplus assets, in order to stimulate the economy, the government authorities will definitely overissue currency. The result of overissuing currency is of courseMonetary aggregate surplus, so right now isAn era of triple excess superposition。However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be grasped are called \"structural opportunities\" under the background of fewer total opportunities, because this kind of opportunity exists for a long time.reporter: You emphasized before that \"investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side in the future\". What is the main logic behind it?Li Xunlei: The main logic is that there is a shortage of effective demand in China at present, and there is a structural shortage in the case of surplus currency. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From the investment point of view, as long as \"structural shortage\" areas are found, they are opportunities for profit.In the future, more importantly, what you are supplying.For example, the supply of rice, its total demand is limited; Or when the price of pigs rises, everyone thinks that the income from raising pigs is good, so they raise pigs one after another, the supply increases, and the price of pigs falls. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of China's consumption upgrading, pork consumption is expected to decline. On the one hand, this is due to the increase in income and consumption upgrading, and the consumption of high-priced meat such as beef will increase; On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but it consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.For example, Dutch lithography is not sold to China, which is a shortage of \"core technology\"; Another example is that some high-end commodities of national brands also have shortages, that is, demand continues to rise and is not sensitive to prices, but the supply side is still insufficient.reporter: In the current period of domestic economic slowdown and shifting gears, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?Li Xunlei: In fact, in every industry, as long as the so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not completely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, as far as \"crude steel\" is concerned, there is indeed excess production capacity and total volume.In addition, although we say that the domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, the demand in some areas is still sufficient. For example, the biomedical industry will have a relatively high growth potential in the future, especially some drugs they have developed to treat cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope that their life span can be extended, because no matter how much money they earn, it is difficult to buy an elixir to prolong life. Under the same logic, because we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to retain their youth, the demand of the medical beauty industry will emerge.02 How to look at real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?reporter: After the data of the seventh census came out, you think the two trends of population aging and regional structural imbalance need to be vigilant. Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?Li Xunlei: There is a surplus in the total amount, coupled with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decline. Because after aging, people are more willing to invest money in places with short maturities, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are reluctant to invest in real estate. In addition, the aging of the population will also lead to a decline in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.But structural opportunities still exist,Judging from the seventh census, the population is still concentrated in first-tier cities and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed. In the future, the population of these cities will still have a net inflow, so it is still possible to lay out real estate in these big cities, but the problem is that the current valuation is too high, which is a characteristic of China's housing prices.This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage money and buy property, while westerners don't have that great demand in this respect, which is closely related to our cultural background in East Asia.reporter: Do you think the recent inflation trend has imposed great constraints on the Fed's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term dilemma or a long-term dilemma? What do you think of gold this year?Li Xunlei: The main goal of the Fed is employment rather than inflation. If non-farm payrolls fail to meet expectations, then the Fed's monetary tightening time will still be delayed, but I think the \"taper\" action of the Fed will be at the end of the third quarter or the fourth quarter It is possible to do it.As far as I am concerned, the current inflation is likely to be a short-to medium-term phenomenon, lasting for more than one year. This kind of inflation may be a \"supplementary increase\" for the past deflation due to currency excess issuance, and it is also an emotional catharsis. Judging from the water level of the U.S. financial market after the Federal Reserve releases water, it should not be high, because the U.S. ability to create money through commercial banks is relatively weak; On the contrary, Chinese commercial banks have a strong motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China doesn't expand its balance sheet much, so it doesn't need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve does.As for gold, the price of gold depends on the level of real interest rate in the short term. If the real interest rate goes down, it will be beneficial to gold. In the long run, it depends on the degree of excessive currency issuance. Gold rose a lot in 2018-20. It is normal to adjust this year, but the future prospects are still promising.reporter: In addition to gold, Bitcoin also performed amazingly under last year's \"water release\" market. What do you think of Bitcoin's subsequent investment value?Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is relatively volatile, which makes it difficult to become a currencyTherefore, it cannot be used in transaction settlement. But after all, it can stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its position is there.In the future, it may be a limited range of investment varieties, more like an asset.03Why look at the macro?reporter: Many individual investors and some institutional investors don't pay much attention to macro. What do you think is the significance of macro for investment?Li Xunlei: Macro research is a typical top-down research. Macro research allows you to judge the impact of the general environment on yourself through fiscal policy and monetary policy. The reason why many institutions are not worthy of macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are easy to obtain, and people's demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.But I don't think the macro can simply stay at some comments on CPI and PPI, or comment on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this macro pattern is too small. The macro-research in my mind should not only have historical depth, but also have practical application and operability in reality.But if the macro is not in place, it is making noise for the market, always just interpreting policies and making technical analysis of high-frequency data. I prefer to see macro research guide policies from the results, rather than following them.I also often say that when we look at the macro, we should use a telescope, not a microscope. The microscope sees all the details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model, and it pays more attention to \"top-level architectural design\".reporter: In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how to understand the position and role of macro?Li Xunlei: I think we must first point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Fed's interest rate goes up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. But from a longer-term perspective, the growth rate of GDP continues to decline. This is where my macro analysis is different,Focus on the big cycle of social development。For another example, when I was studying history, I found that all previous dynasty changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a big agricultural country. When the land rent of tenant farmers' cultivated land increases, farmers' income will decrease, resulting in the gradual differentiation of social income. Long-term peace also means that the rules of the game will remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, and eventually trigger war.After that, the top-down research will explore various industries, and then explore how individual choices are affected by these macro and meso factors.reporter: Finally, what is your judgment on fiscal policy and monetary policy in the future?Li Xunlei: I think the finance will still be tight. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage, because we now want to maintain long-term economic stability, and fiscal expenditure must flow slowly.Then, in the next few years, under the downward trend of economic growth, monetary policy needs to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too active, monetary policy cannot be too tight. If the finance is tight and the currency is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of steady growth. Therefore, when the finance is \"tight\", the currency can be moderately loosened.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134186261","content_text":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“K型复苏”却意外了出圈。\n比起学术层面冰冷的解释，这一回大众切实感受到了向上与向下的两股力量的分野。富人在奢侈品店排起长队，一线城市房价屡创新高，而底层面临着工资跑不赢通胀，全国房租同比涨幅甚至一度转负。\n“K型复苏”背后的真相，其实就是“分化”。\n在一个以存量经济为特征的时代里，“分化”已是不可避免。当身处时代环境已经悄然发生改变，机会并不是坐等到来，顺着发展思路演进而调整自己出击方向的人，才能真正握住机会。\n分化时代下的投资机会到底在哪里？针对此问题，我们有幸与中泰首席经济学家李迅雷展开一场对话。分化时代里的投资逻辑，在李迅雷的新书中被形象地提炼为“趋势的力量”，书中基于自上而下的演绎方法，从宏观政策至微观投资，来预见市场的各种趋势。\n早在2006年，李迅雷就提出了“买自己买不起的东西”。在当时的背景下，经济的高速增长，制造业的规模大幅增加，短缺经济时代已经过去，但老百姓家里配置的除了彩电、冰箱、洗衣机等耐用消费品之外，几乎没有什么资产，全国可流通的股票数量也就3万多亿元市值。\n也就是说，商品已经过剩，但资产仍然短缺。这意味着未来人们会抢购资产，像十年前抢购耐用消费品一样。看懂机会上杠杆的人，并不是一句“运气好”就解释过去了，背后其实有着坚实的宏观逻辑支撑。\n在诸多宏观经济研究人士中，一些观点不是过于深奥晦涩，就是过分浅显缺乏逻辑支撑。几十年来笔耕不辍，李迅雷无疑是那少部分能真正做到深入浅出的人。一句“买自己买不起的东西”，看似简单的观点背后囊括着对宏观经济深刻的洞见。\n如今，中国经济从短缺演化到如今商品过剩、资本过剩、货币过剩，在“三大过剩”的背景下，李迅雷在2018年开始提出要“买自己买不到的东西”。那什么是“买不到的东西”？怎么投资“买不到的东西”？在分化时代里如何找到合适的投资机会？我们试图在本次访谈中找到一些答案。\n以下是访谈的正文内容。\n01 分化时代下的投资机会在哪里？\n记者：对于“分化时代下的趋势投资”主题，“存量经济时代”与“分化”二者紧密关联，请问您是如何做出“存量经济时代”到来的判断？\n李迅雷：准确讲，我所指的并不是“存量经济时代”，而是“存量经济主导的时代”，两者是有差别的。中国GDP增速预计还会保持5%左右的中速增长，而像日本这样的零增长才是真正的存量经济，所以目前只是说中国出现了存量经济的特征。\n而这些特征的出现已经使得很多人不习惯，比如“躺平”其实就是一个存量经济特征，觉得自己辛苦半天也没用，创业也容易失败，这里面就会呈现出一种二八分化现象。\n过去，中国的企业投资都很起劲，民间投资在2013年前都有30%左右的增长，现在民营投资增速越来越低，投资少就意味着机会也少。而民营企业投资的特点又是顺周期，周期向下时它萎缩，周期上升时它才扩张。\n因此，2017年我在一次讨论会上，就提出“存量经济”的概念，中国目前已步入到存量经济主导的阶段，这个阶段的特色就是强者恒强、优胜劣汰、此消彼长，这就是所谓的“分化”。过去的“增量经济”下的特征是“鸡犬升天”，“小的就是美的”，过去我们也常说“屌丝逆袭”，虽然这个词汇不雅，但却反映出那是一个机会比较多的时代。\n记者：分化背景下，您觉得普通人有什么机会？\n李迅雷：机会还是有的，主要是结构性机会。从历史演进来看，中国21世纪初进入商品过剩时代，当时的资产还是相对稀缺，所以2006年时我提出要买自己买不起的东西，即投资加杠杆。但是，当大家纷纷加大资产配置比例，过了十余年后，随之而来就是资产总量过剩的时代。\n在商品过剩、资产过剩的时代，为了拉动经济，政府当局肯定会超发货币，超发货币的结果当然就是货币总量过剩，所以眼下是一个三重过剩叠加的时代。\n但所谓的过剩指的是“总量过剩”，“结构性短缺”依然存在，因此对普通个体而言，在总量机会变少的背景下，可以把握的机会叫作“结构性机会”，因为这一类机会是长期存在的。\n记者：您之前强调“今后投资机会主要在供给侧”，背后的主要逻辑是什么？\n李迅雷：主要逻辑在于，中国目前存在有效需求不足的情况，而在货币过剩的情况下，又存在着结构性短缺。因此，我所谈的供给侧投资机会，其实也就是结构性机会，从投资角度来看，只要发现“结构性短缺”领域，便是获利的机会。\n未来，更为重要的是，你所供给的是什么东西。比如大米的供给，它的需求总量是有限的；或是猪价上涨，大家就觉得说养猪收入不错，于是纷纷养猪，供给增加，猪价下跌。而且从长远来看，伴随中国消费升级的进程，猪肉消费预期会下降，这一方面是由于收入提高后，消费升级，对牛肉等高价肉的消费会提升；另一方面，中国人口占全球18%，却要消费全球50%的猪肉，未来预计会有所下降。\n比如荷兰的光刻机就是不卖给中国，这就属于“核心技术”的短缺；再比如就是有些民族品牌类的高端商品，也存在短缺现象，即需求持续向上，对价格不敏感，但供给面依然不足。\n记者：在当前国内经济减速换挡的时期，您认为结构性的投资机会将会在哪些行业中出现？\n李迅雷：其实每个行业中，只要能找到所谓的“高端需求”、“有效需求”，就都是有机会的，就连钢铁业也并非完全没有机会，比如说“特种钢”。不过单就“粗钢”来看，的确是产能和总量都过剩了。\n另外，虽然我们说国内“有效需求”不足，但在某些领域的需求还是很充分的。比如生物医药行业，未来成长性就会比较高，特别是他们研发的一些治疗缓解心血管疾病或是抗癌的药物。未来随着人们的财富增多，都希望自己的寿命可以延长，因为钱赚得再多，也很难买到延年益寿的长生不老药。相同逻辑下，由于我们都认为“青春”是无价的，当有很多人想留住青春时，医美行业的需求便随之出现了。\n02 如何看地产、黄金、比特币？\n记者：在第七次人口普查数据出来以后，您认为人口老龄化和区域结构性失衡两个趋势需要警惕，在这两个趋势下，您如何看待未来房地产市场？\n李迅雷：总量上是存在过剩的，加之人口老龄化，对房地产需求也会下降。因为老龄化后，大家更愿意把钱投到一些期限较短的地方，比如说固定收益、权益类资产，或是变现流动性好的地方，不太愿意投房地产。另外，人口的老龄化也会导致我们的投资意愿下降，消费意愿增强。\n但结构性机会仍然存在，从第七次人口普查来看，人口还是在往一线城市、二线城市集中，这个趋势没有变化，未来这些城市人口依然会是净流入，因此还是可以布局这些大城市的房地产，但问题就是当前估值太高，这是中国房价的一个特点。\n这其中关联着中国文化因素，中国人喜欢投资、理财、置产，而西方人在这方面需求就没有那么大，这跟我们东亚的文化背景是很有关系的。\n记者：您认为近期通胀走势对美联储的货币政策约束大吗？通胀是短期困境还是长期困境？对今年的黄金怎么看？\n李迅雷：美联储的主要目标是就业而非通胀，如果非农就业不达预期，那么美联储的收紧货币的时间还是会延后的，但我认为“taper”的动作美联储在第三季度末或四季度是有可能做的。\n就我的观点而论，当前的通胀大概率是一个中短期现象，持续时间或超过一年，这种通胀或许是对过去货币超发下的通缩是一种“补涨”，同时也是一种情绪上的宣泄。再就美联储放水后对美国金融市场的水位来看，应该也不算高，因为美国通过商业银行来创造货币的能力比较弱；中国商业银行创造货币的动机反而比较强，这也是为什么中国央行不怎么扩表，可以不需要像美联储那样，释放那么多流动性。\n至于黄金，黄金价格短期取决于实际利率的水平，若实际利率往下走的话，对于黄金是有利的。长期则取决于货币超发的程度，黄金在2018-20年涨了不少，今年调整一下也是正常的，但未来前景依然看好。\n记者：除了黄金之外，比特币在去年的“放水”行情下也有惊人的表现，那您对比特币后续的投资价值怎么看？\n李迅雷：比特币波动性比较大，这一特点使其很难成为一种货币，因此无法用在交易结算上。但它毕竟能够从这么多虚拟货币中脱颖而出，地位是摆在那里的，以后或许会是一个有限范围的投资品种，更像是一种资产。\n03 为什么要看宏观？\n记者：不少个人投资者以及部分机构投资者，对于宏观的关注度并不高，您认为宏观对于投资的意义是什么？\n李迅雷：宏观研究是一种典型的自上而下的研究，宏观研究可以让你通过财政政策、货币政策来判断大环境对自己的影响。现在之所以很多机构不配宏观研究员，主要是因为宏观服务非常开放，报告取得较为容易，大家对宏观研究员的需求也相对减少。\n但我觉得宏观也不能够简单停留在一些CPI、PPI的点评，或点评一下投房地产开发投资额是多少等等，我觉得这种宏观格局太小。我心目当中的宏观研究，它既要有历史的深度，又可以在现实中有实际的应用性和操作性。\n但如果宏观没做到位，就是在给市场制造噪音，始终只是在解读政策，对高频数据作技术分析。我更希望看到宏观研究从成果能引导政策，而不是跟在政策之后。我也常说，我们看宏观要用望远镜，不要用显微镜去看，显微镜看到的都是细枝末节，但宏观它是一个非常宏大、且自上而下的一种研究模式，它更多关注的是“顶层建筑设计”。\n记者：在“宏观-中观-微观”的链条上，请问该如何理解宏观的位置以及发挥的作用？\n李迅雷：我觉得首先要指明大方向，我们常关注美联储利率是往上还是往下，这会影响通胀预期的方向。但从更加长远的角度看，GDP的增速都是持续往下的。这就是我的宏观分析不同之处，侧重社会发展大周期。\n再举个例子，当我在研究历史时，发现中国历次改朝换代多少都与农民起义有关联性。第一个原因，是因为中国是农业大国，当佃农耕地的地租越收越多时，农民收入就会减少，导致社会收入逐渐分化。而长时间的和平，也意味着游戏规则始终不变，分化只会不断加剧，分化其实就是结构扭曲，结构扭曲最终就会导致经济从减速到负增长，最终触发战争。\n之后自上而下研究，就会往各个行业里面探究，而再往下就是探究个体的选择如何被这些宏观、中观的因素所影响。\n记者：最后请教下，您对财政政策和货币政策就未来一段时间的判断大概是什么样的？\n李迅雷：财政我觉得还是会偏紧一些，为什么呢？一方面是宏观杠杆率已经过高了，故政府部门需要降杠杆，因为我们现在要保持经济的长治久安，财政支出就要细水长流。\n那么，未来几年在经济增速下行的趋势下，货币政策就需要相对宽松，尤其当财政政策不是太积极的时候，货币政策就不能太紧了。如果财政紧的话，货币也紧，则稳增长目标就可能很难实现，所以财政“紧”的情况下，货币可以适度松一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1764,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}