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小熊熊小
2021-06-27

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The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A shares

再过4天，今年上半年就将过去了，下周四将迎来建党百年大庆。也有人担心利好兑现后市场见顶。为此，中泰总量团队周末讨论会就下半年我国的利率走势及财政政策展开讨论，分析中美货币政策的走向、财政支出的节奏对资

The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A shares

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":124892012,"tweetId":"124892012","gmtCreate":1624757345936,"gmtModify":1703844465440,"author":{"id":3584931832632836,"idStr":"3584931832632836","authorId":3584931832632836,"authorIdStr":"3584931832632836","name":"小熊熊小","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15926f1d1c1c883fe5266ef9a5bfe83","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124892012","repostId":1149610930,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149610930","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1624753882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149610930?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149610930","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"再过4天，今年上半年就将过去了，下周四将迎来建党百年大庆。也有人担心利好兑现后市场见顶。为此，中泰总量团队周末讨论会就下半年我国的利率走势及财政政策展开讨论，分析中美货币政策的走向、财政支出的节奏对资","content":"In four days, the first half of this year will pass, and next Thursday will celebrate the centenary of the founding of the Party. Some people are also worried that the market will peak after the benefits are realized. To this end, the weekend discussion of the China-Thailand aggregate team discussed my country's interest rate trend and fiscal policy in the second half of the year, and analyzed the impact of the trend of Sino-US monetary policy and the rhythm of fiscal expenditure on the capital market.How to look at the trend of long-term interest rates in the second half of the yearChen Xing, Chief of Zhongtai MacroIt is believed that in the second half of the year, interest rates may show a trend of \"first up and then down\", and the risk of short-term interest rates going up is greater, while the downward trend will be smoother after adjustment. For the allocation of large-scale assets, the advantages of the bond market may be more prominent, and there are structural opportunities in the equity market, while the commodity market is dragged down by the downward price, and its performance is not as good as in the first half of the year.Whether from the perspective of economic growth or inflation, the domestic environment in the second half of the year is conducive to the downward trend of interest rates. First of all, the pressure of economic growth will gradually emerge. Since the epidemic, the two most prominent aspects of the global economic cycle are U.S. consumption and China's exports. The contribution of U.S. personal consumption expenditures to economic growth after the epidemic far exceeds that of private investment, net exports and government expenditures. Correspondingly, my country's high export boom.Of the 12 percentage point growth rate of China's exports in the second half of last year, more than 4 percentage points were driven by exports to the United States。With the changes of three major factors: the ebb of subsidies in the United States, the damage to residents' real income due to high inflation, and the change of consumption structure, the pulling force of U.S. consumption on my country's exports will tend to weaken. Although the growth rate of domestic consumption and manufacturing investment will recover, the endogenous power is not as strong as the exogenous power stimulated by subsidies.Secondly, from the perspective of inflation, the domestic situation in the second half of the year is much softer than that in the first half of the year. The peak and decline of the global epidemic and the domestic measures to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" have brought the logic of commodity pricing back to demand-led. The weak economic recovery trend means that the prices of most industrial products do not have the basis for continuous rise. In addition, the pressure on PPI growth rate caused by the base effect also tends to ease in the second half of the year, and the transmission efficiency of this round of PPI growth rate to CPI growth rate is also It is not high, and inflationary pressures have eased in the second half of the year. But we also need to pay attention to the disturbance of short-term factors. At present, there are still two risks that are actually difficult to eliminate: First, the monetary policy of the United States tends to turn. Although the yield of China's bond market is fundamentally determined by the domestic environment, it will also be disturbed by changes in the external environment. During the last TAPER period, China's interest rate level was pulled up; The second is the supply impact brought about by centralized fiscal financing in the second half of the year, soThe upside risk of short-term interest rates is greater.Yang Chang, Chief of China-Thailand Policy ResearchThe reason why the long-term bond interest rate may decline slowly is expounded: the judgment of long-term bond interest rate still depends on the judgment of fundamentals. The economy is still recovering, but the momentum is weakening, and there may be downward pressure in the future. From the production side, it is close to normal; From the demand side, the growth rate of investment has slowed down month-on-month; Consumption has certain resilience; Export continuity may be under pressure.Zhou Yue, Chief Fixed Income of ZhongtaiIt is believed that the interest rate bond market in the first half of the year has two characteristics: First, interest rates are low and volatile. The 10Y Treasury Bond yield basically fluctuates around the central 3.17% ± 10 BP. The low volatility stems from three factors: from the fundamental point of view, the deceleration and downshift after the \"new normal\", and the fluctuation of the economic cycle weakens; Monetary policy has gradually changed from aggregate to structural, and its style has changed from wide opening and closing to fine-tuning and pre-adjustment; In terms of funding, the anchoring role of policy interest rates continues to rise.Second, funds are dominant. From the perspective of several bands of yields in the first half of the year, the change direction of yields of major maturities in Treasury Bond at each stage is the same, but the change range of short-term debt is significantly greater than that of long-term debt, indicating that the fundamental impact is passivated, and the capital side is the leading factor of interest rate trend in the first half of the year.In terms of monetary and credit environment, economic recovery is uneven, the foundation is unstable, and the possibility of tightening monetary policy is low. However, stabilizing leverage and controlling real estate restrict the room for easing, and monetary policy is expected to be \"neither tight nor loose.\" The fastest credit contraction during the year is coming to an end. The growth rate of social financing is expected to continue to decline slightly in the third quarter and is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.Looking at the comprehensive capital interest rate center and the current 10Y Treasury Bond yield level, the spread is highly protective, and there is limited room for upward adjustment of yields. However, the sharp weakening of fundamentals during the year will force monetary policy to turn to easing is less likely, so the signs of bear-bull inflection point are not yet obvious. In the second half of the year, under the environment of \"economic recovery slowing down, monetary policy steady, and tight credit slowing down\", yields are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range.Zhongtai Fixed Income Analyst Xiao YuIt is believed that the tight credit pressure has obviously eased. The growth rate of social financing dropped sharply from January to May. On the one hand, it was affected by the high base in the same period last year, and on the other hand, the credit environment did shrink significantly. Different from the deleveraging from 2017 to 2018, this year, under the tone of \"stabilizing leverage\", the decline in social financing is mainly due to structural factors. Compared with the same period last year, RMB loans were basically flat, and the sub-items that decreased year-on-year were mainly trust loans, corporate bonds and government bonds. Considering that fixed asset investment is still recovering, the loan demand index is at a high level, and the nominal loan interest rate is facing upward pressure, the endogenous financing demand of entities has not declined significantly. Based on the tracking forecast of the main sub-items, it is judged that the fastest credit contraction during the year is coming to an end. Although the growth rate of social financing continued to decline slightly in the third quarter, it is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.Social financing growth is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50ae67e84a4953fe44477f553181b10c\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>Research InstituteTang Jun, Chief of Zhongtai Financial EngineeringIt is believed that there is not much room for Treasury Bond interest rates to rise and fall in the second half of the year. Because the largest holders of my country's Treasury Bond are commercial banks, looking at the changes of commercial banks' demand for Treasury Bond allocation from the changes of their debt costs may provide a new perspective. The interest rate of funds between banks, the supervision of idling arbitrage of funds among financial institutions, and the new asset management regulations prohibiting the wealth management fund pool model will all affect the capital cost of commercial banks allocating Treasury Bond.Separately, the inter-bank funding interest rate is mainly the result of the central bank's control, and the central bank's monetary tightness is likely to remain relatively stable in the second half of the year. According to the indicator of capital idling strength constructed by Zhongtai Clock, the supervision of capital idling arbitrage among financial institutions has become significantly stricter since April 2020.It is still in a relatively strict state, which is not conducive to the downward trend of interest rates in Treasury Bond。 The ban on the wealth management fund pool model by the new asset management regulations will also raise the cost of wealth management funds. For example, under the fund pool mode, banks can issue short-term, low-cost products such as 7 days and 15 days on a rolling basis, and allocate a certain proportion of long-term Treasury Bond through maturity mismatch. Moreover, under the fund pool mode, the large fund pool always has to set aside some funds to deal with the liquidity risk of rolling issuance. This part of the money often becomes the lender of overnight funds, providing cheap funds for small and medium-sized financial institutions, which is conducive to their leverage allocation of interest rate bonds.Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>He published a slightly different view from the above: in 2017, he specifically studied the relationship between interest rates and economic growth. It is found that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield in the United States, Japan, Europe and India is relatively close to their nominal GDP growth rate, especially in the United States, where the 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP growth rate are basically on the same line. The yield of the Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond is very stable in the long run.In 2017, it was about 3.6-3.7%, far lower than China's nominal GDP growth rate. Now the economic growth rate has dropped significantly, but the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond still fluctuates in both directions around 3.17%.Relationship between Chinese 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Nominal GDP<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3519f2e9cd98948a6420438919d0e34f\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteRelationship between US 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c122c37781e12a425e16ee1677a12f3\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteThis shows that China's long-term interest rate level is actually low. The reason why everyone complains about expensive financing is because my country's market economy is still immature and the credit environment needs to be improved. There areThe financing cost of credit endorsement, such as central enterprises, is very low.The long-term low long-term interest rate is the main reason for the high domestic asset price and the formation of \"rigid bubble\"。 For example, domestic housing prices are much higher than the international level in terms of rent-to-sales ratio and house price-to-income ratio. Similarly, the share prices of many A-shares containing H-shares are basically about twice or even more expensive than their H-shares, while the interest rate level in Hong Kong market is much lower than that in the mainland.So, what causes domestic long-term interest rates to remain low? The interest rate is the price of funds, which is affected by the supply and demand relationship of funds. The scale of domestic capital supply is still very huge.In order to stabilize growth, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, the four major banks, and state-owned enterprises have been constantly implementing or participating in counter-cyclical policies. Therefore, the growth rate of M2 in the past 20 years has greatly exceeded the nominal GDP growth rate.In addition to policy factors, another reason is the upward trend of residents' savings rate after 2000, which is related to residents' reduction in consumption rate and large-scale allocation of real estate such as residential buildings. The lowest point of household savings rate was in 1999,From 27.63% in 1999 to 42.1% in 2010, an increase of 14.5 percentage points.Although China's household savings rate has dropped to 34.8% by 2018, it is still much higher than the general level of developed countries.Consumption Rate and Savings Rate of Chinese Residents<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfa1dc9adb1c5b9a4f0f259763728e1\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteAssuming that all preconditions remain unchanged, with the decline of economic growth, the decline of interest rates is indeed a general trend. However, under the background of population aging in the future, the household savings rate continues to decline, the proportion of consumption increases while the proportion of investment decreases, and the inflation rate picks up. Will the nominal interest rate rise?From the perspective of fiscal revenue and expenditure-Policy Reform Direction and Capital Market Investment OpportunitiesXiao YuIt is believed that the effect of \"fiscal post-setting\" in the second half of the year may be lower than expected. From January to May, the two-year compound growth rate of infrastructure investment was only 3.3%, which was lower than the level of the whole year of 2020 (3.4%). The weak recovery of infrastructure investment is relatively consistent with the performance of fiscal expenditure. From January to May, broad fiscal expenditure only increased by 0.8%, and the dynamic deficit ratio further declined, which is already lower than the level of the same period in 2019. In the second half of the year, with the acceleration of the issuance of new special bonds and the increase in budget expenditure progress, there is a possibility of a slight rebound in infrastructure investment. But,The stimulus effect of \"fiscal post-position\" may be limited。 First, affected by the release of the effect of new tax reduction policies and the relatively high base in the same period in the second half of last year, the annual income growth rate may show a trend of first high and then low, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure are generally in a tight balance, restricting the space for exertion; Second, under the background of strictly controlling local debt risks, reducing the leverage ratio of government departments, and shrinking new financing of urban investment, the willingness and ability of local governments to invest in infrastructure are still constrained.Slow progress of fiscal expenditure budget from January to May (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e24e7f359e06862c0f458f103b74e5\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteYang ChangIt is believed that in fiscal policy, the attitude of \"counter-cyclical\" adjustment is more obvious. The surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns has further declined, the economy is still in the process of repairing the channel, and the fiscal policy will exert too much force, but it will exert too much force. In the second half of the year, if the economic peak is basically completed, and if the economy goes down, or the downward pressure is too great, there is still room for fiscal policy to exert its strength. This will lead to the slope of economic downturn, which will not be too steep.Zhongtai Strategist Xu ChiIt is believed that finance is the most important benchmark for predicting the policy direction. Starting this year, under three major pressures, China's financial pressure may rise rapidly in the future: First, the largest \"baby boom\" in China's history (62 to 73 years) has gradually entered the peak period of retirement, which means that,In the future, nearly 30 million people will change from taxpayers to retirees who need financial support every year, and this will last for more than ten years； Second, with the increasing game and confrontation between the East and the West, military, diplomatic and scientific and technological investment may show a spiral growth trend; Third, although it has become a national policy to live in and not speculate, under the stock economy,The dependence of local finance on land finance has been rising for five consecutive years, and now it has exceeded 84%。 The so-called \"taking the right path with fewer choices\" and the \"hard constraint\" of increasing fiscal revenue and expenditure pressure determine that the space and direction for policy and reform choices are actually relatively limited and predictable:1) Finance may be relatively strong in the second half of the year: the government's fiscal bond issuance in the first half of the year was significantly lower than expected. The concentrated \"bidding, auction and listing\" of land supported the \"six guarantees\" of local governments in the first half of the year. It is expected that the pace of fiscal bond issuance in the second half of the year may accelerate, and it is difficult to further ease liquidity. It is expected that interest rates may be difficult to fall further in at least the third quarter.2) Income distribution reform under \"common prosperity\": Compared with developed countries such as the United States, the tax contribution of the top 1% of the rich in my country is significantly lower: personal tax in the United States accounts for 55% of the total government tax revenue.The top 1% of families contribute 17% of tax revenue, but pay 25% of federal income tax； However, China's individual tax accounts for only 7.2% of tax revenue, and the lack of \"asset tax\" related to the rich is the most important reason for this difference. Under the increasing pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the rich should assume more social responsibilities,It is expected that the pilot of real estate tax and the post-reforms of consumption tax collection may be accelerated in the second half of the year, which may cause certain fluctuations in the segmentation of luxury goods such as mid-to-high-end liquor.3) Under the increasing pressure on social security, on the one hand, compared with U.S. pensions, where corporate and individual components account for more than 90% of the total, among the \"three pillars\" of my country's pensions, corporate annuities and personal commercial pensions The proportion of insurance is obviously low. For example, in 2018, corporate annuities only accounted for 18% of the total.Only 0.25% of enterprises provide enterprise annuity, accounting for only 2.5% of the total number of participants in basic old-age insurance; The personal commercial endowment insurance only accounts for 4% of the total.。 Under the \"retirement tide\", it is expected that from the second half of this year, encouraging enterprises and individuals to increase the proportion of pension contributions will also accelerate, which may further increase the concentration of industry leaders.On the other hand, increasing investment income through the capital market will be an important way to alleviate the pressure of social security, and it will be the general trend for social security and pensions to further increase the proportion of social security and pensions entering the market. The recent accelerated implementation of state-owned enterprise reform actions such as equity incentives and market value management assessment of central enterprises will also help increase their investment income. In the context of subsequent long-term incremental funds entering the market, low-valued blue chips such as central enterprises may usher in trend opportunities for valuation restoration.4) Under the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure and the intensification of geopolitical confrontation, the contradiction between independent and controllable key technologies and the urgency of continuous capital investment determines that direct financing through the capital market, rather than traditional financial subsidies, will be the key to the development of my country's science and technology industry. main form. Therefore structurally,Guide market funds to be allocated more to key science and technology fields, may be an important direction of capital market reform, such as: the recent mass entrepreneurship and innovation 50 and the intensive sale of science and technology innovation 50 funds. Therefore, key technological fields such as science and technology innovation 50, military industry, and semiconductors will be the most important main lines of investment in the second half of this year and longer in the future.The A-share market is generally optimistic in the second half of the year-β is not easy to grasp, α has a greater chanceSince interest rates are expected to fall in the long run, monetary policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the pace of fiscal expenditure will accelerate, it seems that the stock market should be more optimistic.Zhongtai Financial Engineering Analyst Zhang HanThrough tracking of market funds, it is found that,The issuance scale of public funds has risen from the low point of 30 billion per month to the current 80 billion。 The reduction of industrial capital remains at a high position, with a monthly reduction of about 70 billion yuan, and the regularity of foreign capital changes is weak. Compared with the beginning of this year, the scale of industrial capital reduction is similar, but the scale of fund issuance is obviously smaller. If the scale of public offerings can continue to increase, it will bring incremental funds to the market. In addition, it can be seen from changes in market sentiment scores that,Market risk appetite has increased, and the short-term market may perform better.Chen Long, Chief Strategy Officer of ZhongtaiIt is believed that interest rates are expected to fall further in the second half of the year when economic growth may be lower than expected and liquidity may be better than expected. The strength of the US dollar is accompanied by the depreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate. The commodity peak has passed. In the second half of the year, the equity market will experience repeated economic growth and liquidity expectations, and it may exceed or fall short of expectations. Therefore, we believe that the volatility of the equity market will increase in the second half of the year, and the market conditions are still structural.β opportunities are not easy to grasp, it is recommended to pay more attention to α。Therefore, in terms of industry allocation, (1) focus on new energy and new energy vehicles, technology manufacturing (semiconductors, Hongmeng, consumer electronics), military industry, etc. with stable performance, accelerated profit increase, and high prosperity in the industry; The consumption sector pays more attention to new consumption. At the same time, be wary of the risk of decline in the interim performance of some machinery industries, light industries, and some food and beverage industries.Tang JunIt is believed that the current regulatory situation has an adverse impact on wealth management funds and the leverage allocation of interest rate bonds by small and medium-sized financial institutions, which may affect the downward trend of interest rates. However, after the rise of Treasury Bond's interest rate last year and the rapid decline of the yield of bank wealth management products, the current yield of ten-year Treasury Bond is almost the same as that of the wealth management products of major state-owned banks (about 3.2%-3.3%), which may mean that the relative attractiveness of the Treasury Bond will gradually increase, and there is little room for the upward yield.To maintain the view that inflation may exceed expectations, in addition to the impact of the epidemic on supply and demand mentioned earlier, the impact of policy interventions such as trade protectionism and reducing foreign dependence on the global supply chain will also bring about a chain effect of pushing up costs. reaction. In the long-term global free trade in the past, the supply chain and logistics network have formed a relatively stable ecology with cost optimization. However, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain and human intervention not only led to an increase in direct procurement costs, but also broke the original \"optimal path\" of the logistics network, resulting in a large increase in demand for transportation capacity and insufficient transportation capacity. For example, in some places, it is hard to find a container, while in other places, a large number of empty containers are piled up, which just breaks the original logistics ecology. For many commodities, the main origin and consumption places are far apart, and freight may account for more than half of the cost.It is recommended that major asset classes be allocated in a relatively balanced manner, and commodities that benefit from inflation are slightly overweighted.Observing the allocation value of cyclical stocks from futures contractsZhongtai Strategist Wang ShijinThrough the analysis of the term structure of futures contracts, it is found that when a futures variety presents a forward rising structure, the sustainability of the corresponding commodity rise will be better, and the excess returns of the corresponding stocks will also be obvious. For the middle and upstream sectors of the cycle, when there are a large number of futures showing a forward rising structure, the probability of the sector rising is higher. In the past period of time, the number of futures showing a bullish structure has decreased, but there are still many futures showing a bullish structure, and the middle and upper reaches of the short-term cycle are still relatively strong.U.S. monetary policy cycle and U.S. bond spread performance<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a90cd1f8a2e8bdcec353a0065b58f6d\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteMarkets appear to have started trading to reduce QE. The last round of reduction panic occurred in May 2013. When Bernanke proposed to reduce the scale of QE in the future, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose by more than 100 bp in more than 2 months, and then in December 2013, when When the Federal Reserve began to truly slow down the scale of bond purchases, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds actually went down. The same thing has happened recently. Although the issue of reducing QE was not mentioned in the statement of last week's FOMC meeting, the recent trend of short-term U.S. bonds and long-term U.S. bonds is completely opposite. The spread has dropped by 20bp in the last 10 trading days.This operation of selling short and buying long is a common trading behavior in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet and the stage of QE reduction. During the last round of QE reduction from early December 2013 to the end of October 2014, the long-term and short-term interest rate spreads of U.S. bonds continued to decline. Although many domestic voices are still in the stage of reducing panic, the market seems to be trading another scenario. The difference is that the last reduction of QE lasted for a year, and this time the pace of reduction may become faster, mainly because the impact of this epidemic and the changes in economic state brought about by previous credit shocks are different.Putting aside the supply and demand structure to talk about the trend of interest rates is purely a slap in the head. Recently, more and more macro analysts have begun to pay attention to overseas markets. For example, the scale of ON-RRP continues to hit record highs, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting raised the IOER interest rate. However, few people mentioned the recent supply and demand status of U.S. bonds, such as the recent purchase by the New York Fed. The rhythm of Treasury Bond and MBS, the rhythm of bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury Department, etc.In fact, since April this year,The U.S. bond market has been in a state where the scale of bond purchases is greater than the scale of bond issuance, which is the basis for the continued decline in US Treasury yields throughout the second quarter, followed by factors such as inflation expectations and monetary policy expectations. An important reason for the slowdown in U.S. bond issuance in the second quarter is that due to the impact of the debt ceiling day at the end of July, the balance of the U.S. Treasury's TGA account with the Federal Reserve dropped from more than US $1.1 trillion in early April to US $730 billion, and will remain before the end of July. Further decline, which actually increased together with QE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The scale of reserves in the inter-market, and the scale of ON-RRP continues to hit new highs, which means that the market can no longer accept too many reserves. The recent transaction scale accounts for more than 20% of bank reserves. From this perspective, the situation of excess liquidity will not change much before August, and then the upward pressure on interest rates brought by the supply side may be highlighted.Emerging Market Stock Price Index and the US Dollar Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b37fcee8b3ecf9403a44e30544dfbdc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteLooking at macro-driven opportunities,In the second half of the year, we can consider the appreciation of the US dollar on the left side。 The viewpoint of the discussion at the end of May mentioned that the US dollar is more likely to strengthen in the second half of the year, mainly due to two factors: First, as the vaccination rate increases, the Federal Reserve will prepare to reduce QE; on the other hand, the economic growth of other the US Dollar Index-constituting countries is significantly slower than that of the United States. At present, after the FOMC meeting, the US Dollar Index has rebounded, but it remains more at the expected level. If we refer to the performance of the US dollar from the last round of QE reduction to the end of QE, the US Dollar Index's accelerated upward trend began in July 2014, that is, the later period of QE reduction.Overall, as the employment level in the United States gradually recovers and inflation returns to above the AIT target, it is a high probability event that QE will begin to reduce in the second half of the year, which is conducive to the strengthening of the US Dollar Index. As far as the stock market is concerned, companies with a relatively high proportion of overseas revenue deserve attention. For example, consumer electronics, API and other sectors that performed well in 2019 and 20 years, but were greatly affected by exchange losses in 21 years, dragging down the company's performance. The macro environment in the second half of the year may be a bonus for such companies.The index structure is getting healthier and healthier, and the breakthrough is imminent. In terms of funds, fund issuance has picked up significantly recently. Since June, the scale of newly established partial equity funds has been close to the sum of April-May. The continuous substantial net inflow of northbound funds is superimposed on the approach of the centenary of the founding of the Party. Short-term market sentiment is expected to remain high. At the same time, the index structure has improved significantly compared with the beginning of the year. Different from the valuation market of a few companies in January, the current number of stocks in the whole market that exceed the high point of the first quarter is close to 1,200, and the other nearly 1,000 stocks are less than 10% away from the high point of the first quarter.%, such as the last round leading the gains<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WX\">WuXi AppTec</a>It has reached a new high recently, and representative stocks in other active sectors such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>It is only one step away from the high point in the first quarter. Under the current sentiment window, the probability of such companies hitting new highs is relatively high. The resilience of these heavyweights also means the resilience of the index.Stocks are better than bonds: sticking to the technological growth of the A-share marketZhongtai Strategy Analyst Zhang WenyuIt is believed that anti-epidemic efficiency is productivity. The economic recovery and changes in the macro-policy environment in the second half of the year still need to closely track the pace of epidemic control. The current vaccination speed of global economies is diverging. From the perspective of vaccination rates, the proportions of fully vaccinated people in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany are 46.76%, 44.98%, and 32.24% respectively, which are much higher than3.72%, 0.14% in developing countries such as India and Vietnam。 However, the vaccination rate in developed economies has declined significantly. Based on the current vaccination rate, the vaccination rate in the United States will most likely reach the Federal Reserve's 75% target level at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter.The proportion of fully vaccinated population in Britain and the United States is 46.76% and 44.98%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235afc25c5fb84adbc90634c0d8f8ff3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Ourworldindata, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteAt the same time, considering that the third quarter is the time when the U.S. fiscal department suspends all unemployment benefits, the recovery of the U.S. job market may strengthen in the fourth quarter. By then, the output gap of developed countries such as the United States may begin to be repaired with the recovery of domestic production supply chains, thereby reducing \"over-dependence\" on Chinese exports. In addition, part of Biden's infrastructure stimulus plan is expected to be implemented, and the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit in the second half of the year will also promote the repair of the output gap. In other words, strong exports, the core kinetic energy of the domestic economy this year, may face weakening in the fourth quarter.The expansion of U.S. fiscal deficits is expected to promote the repair of output gap<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ba838570bbff68a84b6dc44e31e414a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: OECD, FRED, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteFrom the perspective of domestic economic performance, the Politburo meeting in April proposed that the economic recovery in the first quarter was uneven, but since the second quarter, the current situation of uneven recovery in manufacturing and consumption still exists. With the repair of the output gap in developed demand countries such as the United States in the fourth quarter, the momentum of domestic exports has decreased, and the momentum of sustained economic recovery has declined, or it may rely more on loose macro policies to ensure the demand for stabilizing the economy in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. At the same time, the release of domestic guiding signals on upstream raw material prices and the effect of the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have emerged. PPI will fall in the second half of the year, and domestic macro liquidity may still maintain a relatively loose monetary environment.To sum up, in the third quarter, before the Federal Reserve officially sent a signal to reduce asset purchases, the output gap had not quickly converged, the market's expectations for inflation fell, and the long-term interest rate in the United States remained weak and volatile. However, domestic liquidity has slowly turned in the first half of the year, and the economic growth momentum has weakened in the second half of the year. Domestic monetary policy still maintains relatively loose liquidity, and the equity market may be dominated by structural opportunities of growth style.In terms of asset allocation in the second half of the year, the equity market may perform better than the bond market and commodities. Focusing on the centenary of the founding of the Party and the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the implementation of reform policies is expected to increase market risk appetite and stick to emerging sectors such as growth technology. 1) Commodities: Global economic recovery is still on the way,Crude oil, energy and chemicals priced globally may continue to fluctuate upward； 2) A-share market: Technology sectors such as military industry, technology stocks, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 enjoy valuation repairs and policy premiums. The current valuations of the military industry, communications, computer and electronics sectors are at the historical quantiles of 32.47%, 21.18%, 53.82% and 31.76% in the past ten years, respectively, and there is still room for improvement in the overall valuation; In addition, structural opportunities for core technologies supported by performance, new energy, semiconductors, and new materials will also be highlighted.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A shares\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n李迅雷金融与投资 \n2021-06-27 08:31\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn four days, the first half of this year will pass, and next Thursday will celebrate the centenary of the founding of the Party. Some people are also worried that the market will peak after the benefits are realized. To this end, the weekend discussion of the China-Thailand aggregate team discussed my country's interest rate trend and fiscal policy in the second half of the year, and analyzed the impact of the trend of Sino-US monetary policy and the rhythm of fiscal expenditure on the capital market.How to look at the trend of long-term interest rates in the second half of the yearChen Xing, Chief of Zhongtai MacroIt is believed that in the second half of the year, interest rates may show a trend of \"first up and then down\", and the risk of short-term interest rates going up is greater, while the downward trend will be smoother after adjustment. For the allocation of large-scale assets, the advantages of the bond market may be more prominent, and there are structural opportunities in the equity market, while the commodity market is dragged down by the downward price, and its performance is not as good as in the first half of the year.Whether from the perspective of economic growth or inflation, the domestic environment in the second half of the year is conducive to the downward trend of interest rates. First of all, the pressure of economic growth will gradually emerge. Since the epidemic, the two most prominent aspects of the global economic cycle are U.S. consumption and China's exports. The contribution of U.S. personal consumption expenditures to economic growth after the epidemic far exceeds that of private investment, net exports and government expenditures. Correspondingly, my country's high export boom.Of the 12 percentage point growth rate of China's exports in the second half of last year, more than 4 percentage points were driven by exports to the United States。With the changes of three major factors: the ebb of subsidies in the United States, the damage to residents' real income due to high inflation, and the change of consumption structure, the pulling force of U.S. consumption on my country's exports will tend to weaken. Although the growth rate of domestic consumption and manufacturing investment will recover, the endogenous power is not as strong as the exogenous power stimulated by subsidies.Secondly, from the perspective of inflation, the domestic situation in the second half of the year is much softer than that in the first half of the year. The peak and decline of the global epidemic and the domestic measures to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" have brought the logic of commodity pricing back to demand-led. The weak economic recovery trend means that the prices of most industrial products do not have the basis for continuous rise. In addition, the pressure on PPI growth rate caused by the base effect also tends to ease in the second half of the year, and the transmission efficiency of this round of PPI growth rate to CPI growth rate is also It is not high, and inflationary pressures have eased in the second half of the year. But we also need to pay attention to the disturbance of short-term factors. At present, there are still two risks that are actually difficult to eliminate: First, the monetary policy of the United States tends to turn. Although the yield of China's bond market is fundamentally determined by the domestic environment, it will also be disturbed by changes in the external environment. During the last TAPER period, China's interest rate level was pulled up; The second is the supply impact brought about by centralized fiscal financing in the second half of the year, soThe upside risk of short-term interest rates is greater.Yang Chang, Chief of China-Thailand Policy ResearchThe reason why the long-term bond interest rate may decline slowly is expounded: the judgment of long-term bond interest rate still depends on the judgment of fundamentals. The economy is still recovering, but the momentum is weakening, and there may be downward pressure in the future. From the production side, it is close to normal; From the demand side, the growth rate of investment has slowed down month-on-month; Consumption has certain resilience; Export continuity may be under pressure.Zhou Yue, Chief Fixed Income of ZhongtaiIt is believed that the interest rate bond market in the first half of the year has two characteristics: First, interest rates are low and volatile. The 10Y Treasury Bond yield basically fluctuates around the central 3.17% ± 10 BP. The low volatility stems from three factors: from the fundamental point of view, the deceleration and downshift after the \"new normal\", and the fluctuation of the economic cycle weakens; Monetary policy has gradually changed from aggregate to structural, and its style has changed from wide opening and closing to fine-tuning and pre-adjustment; In terms of funding, the anchoring role of policy interest rates continues to rise.Second, funds are dominant. From the perspective of several bands of yields in the first half of the year, the change direction of yields of major maturities in Treasury Bond at each stage is the same, but the change range of short-term debt is significantly greater than that of long-term debt, indicating that the fundamental impact is passivated, and the capital side is the leading factor of interest rate trend in the first half of the year.In terms of monetary and credit environment, economic recovery is uneven, the foundation is unstable, and the possibility of tightening monetary policy is low. However, stabilizing leverage and controlling real estate restrict the room for easing, and monetary policy is expected to be \"neither tight nor loose.\" The fastest credit contraction during the year is coming to an end. The growth rate of social financing is expected to continue to decline slightly in the third quarter and is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.Looking at the comprehensive capital interest rate center and the current 10Y Treasury Bond yield level, the spread is highly protective, and there is limited room for upward adjustment of yields. However, the sharp weakening of fundamentals during the year will force monetary policy to turn to easing is less likely, so the signs of bear-bull inflection point are not yet obvious. In the second half of the year, under the environment of \"economic recovery slowing down, monetary policy steady, and tight credit slowing down\", yields are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range.Zhongtai Fixed Income Analyst Xiao YuIt is believed that the tight credit pressure has obviously eased. The growth rate of social financing dropped sharply from January to May. On the one hand, it was affected by the high base in the same period last year, and on the other hand, the credit environment did shrink significantly. Different from the deleveraging from 2017 to 2018, this year, under the tone of \"stabilizing leverage\", the decline in social financing is mainly due to structural factors. Compared with the same period last year, RMB loans were basically flat, and the sub-items that decreased year-on-year were mainly trust loans, corporate bonds and government bonds. Considering that fixed asset investment is still recovering, the loan demand index is at a high level, and the nominal loan interest rate is facing upward pressure, the endogenous financing demand of entities has not declined significantly. Based on the tracking forecast of the main sub-items, it is judged that the fastest credit contraction during the year is coming to an end. Although the growth rate of social financing continued to decline slightly in the third quarter, it is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.Social financing growth is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50ae67e84a4953fe44477f553181b10c\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>Research InstituteTang Jun, Chief of Zhongtai Financial EngineeringIt is believed that there is not much room for Treasury Bond interest rates to rise and fall in the second half of the year. Because the largest holders of my country's Treasury Bond are commercial banks, looking at the changes of commercial banks' demand for Treasury Bond allocation from the changes of their debt costs may provide a new perspective. The interest rate of funds between banks, the supervision of idling arbitrage of funds among financial institutions, and the new asset management regulations prohibiting the wealth management fund pool model will all affect the capital cost of commercial banks allocating Treasury Bond.Separately, the inter-bank funding interest rate is mainly the result of the central bank's control, and the central bank's monetary tightness is likely to remain relatively stable in the second half of the year. According to the indicator of capital idling strength constructed by Zhongtai Clock, the supervision of capital idling arbitrage among financial institutions has become significantly stricter since April 2020.It is still in a relatively strict state, which is not conducive to the downward trend of interest rates in Treasury Bond。 The ban on the wealth management fund pool model by the new asset management regulations will also raise the cost of wealth management funds. For example, under the fund pool mode, banks can issue short-term, low-cost products such as 7 days and 15 days on a rolling basis, and allocate a certain proportion of long-term Treasury Bond through maturity mismatch. Moreover, under the fund pool mode, the large fund pool always has to set aside some funds to deal with the liquidity risk of rolling issuance. This part of the money often becomes the lender of overnight funds, providing cheap funds for small and medium-sized financial institutions, which is conducive to their leverage allocation of interest rate bonds.Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>He published a slightly different view from the above: in 2017, he specifically studied the relationship between interest rates and economic growth. It is found that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield in the United States, Japan, Europe and India is relatively close to their nominal GDP growth rate, especially in the United States, where the 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP growth rate are basically on the same line. The yield of the Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond is very stable in the long run.In 2017, it was about 3.6-3.7%, far lower than China's nominal GDP growth rate. Now the economic growth rate has dropped significantly, but the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond still fluctuates in both directions around 3.17%.Relationship between Chinese 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Nominal GDP<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3519f2e9cd98948a6420438919d0e34f\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteRelationship between US 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c122c37781e12a425e16ee1677a12f3\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteThis shows that China's long-term interest rate level is actually low. The reason why everyone complains about expensive financing is because my country's market economy is still immature and the credit environment needs to be improved. There areThe financing cost of credit endorsement, such as central enterprises, is very low.The long-term low long-term interest rate is the main reason for the high domestic asset price and the formation of \"rigid bubble\"。 For example, domestic housing prices are much higher than the international level in terms of rent-to-sales ratio and house price-to-income ratio. Similarly, the share prices of many A-shares containing H-shares are basically about twice or even more expensive than their H-shares, while the interest rate level in Hong Kong market is much lower than that in the mainland.So, what causes domestic long-term interest rates to remain low? The interest rate is the price of funds, which is affected by the supply and demand relationship of funds. The scale of domestic capital supply is still very huge.In order to stabilize growth, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, the four major banks, and state-owned enterprises have been constantly implementing or participating in counter-cyclical policies. Therefore, the growth rate of M2 in the past 20 years has greatly exceeded the nominal GDP growth rate.In addition to policy factors, another reason is the upward trend of residents' savings rate after 2000, which is related to residents' reduction in consumption rate and large-scale allocation of real estate such as residential buildings. The lowest point of household savings rate was in 1999,From 27.63% in 1999 to 42.1% in 2010, an increase of 14.5 percentage points.Although China's household savings rate has dropped to 34.8% by 2018, it is still much higher than the general level of developed countries.Consumption Rate and Savings Rate of Chinese Residents<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfa1dc9adb1c5b9a4f0f259763728e1\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteAssuming that all preconditions remain unchanged, with the decline of economic growth, the decline of interest rates is indeed a general trend. However, under the background of population aging in the future, the household savings rate continues to decline, the proportion of consumption increases while the proportion of investment decreases, and the inflation rate picks up. Will the nominal interest rate rise?From the perspective of fiscal revenue and expenditure-Policy Reform Direction and Capital Market Investment OpportunitiesXiao YuIt is believed that the effect of \"fiscal post-setting\" in the second half of the year may be lower than expected. From January to May, the two-year compound growth rate of infrastructure investment was only 3.3%, which was lower than the level of the whole year of 2020 (3.4%). The weak recovery of infrastructure investment is relatively consistent with the performance of fiscal expenditure. From January to May, broad fiscal expenditure only increased by 0.8%, and the dynamic deficit ratio further declined, which is already lower than the level of the same period in 2019. In the second half of the year, with the acceleration of the issuance of new special bonds and the increase in budget expenditure progress, there is a possibility of a slight rebound in infrastructure investment. But,The stimulus effect of \"fiscal post-position\" may be limited。 First, affected by the release of the effect of new tax reduction policies and the relatively high base in the same period in the second half of last year, the annual income growth rate may show a trend of first high and then low, and the fiscal revenue and expenditure are generally in a tight balance, restricting the space for exertion; Second, under the background of strictly controlling local debt risks, reducing the leverage ratio of government departments, and shrinking new financing of urban investment, the willingness and ability of local governments to invest in infrastructure are still constrained.Slow progress of fiscal expenditure budget from January to May (%)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e24e7f359e06862c0f458f103b74e5\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteYang ChangIt is believed that in fiscal policy, the attitude of \"counter-cyclical\" adjustment is more obvious. The surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns has further declined, the economy is still in the process of repairing the channel, and the fiscal policy will exert too much force, but it will exert too much force. In the second half of the year, if the economic peak is basically completed, and if the economy goes down, or the downward pressure is too great, there is still room for fiscal policy to exert its strength. This will lead to the slope of economic downturn, which will not be too steep.Zhongtai Strategist Xu ChiIt is believed that finance is the most important benchmark for predicting the policy direction. Starting this year, under three major pressures, China's financial pressure may rise rapidly in the future: First, the largest \"baby boom\" in China's history (62 to 73 years) has gradually entered the peak period of retirement, which means that,In the future, nearly 30 million people will change from taxpayers to retirees who need financial support every year, and this will last for more than ten years； Second, with the increasing game and confrontation between the East and the West, military, diplomatic and scientific and technological investment may show a spiral growth trend; Third, although it has become a national policy to live in and not speculate, under the stock economy,The dependence of local finance on land finance has been rising for five consecutive years, and now it has exceeded 84%。 The so-called \"taking the right path with fewer choices\" and the \"hard constraint\" of increasing fiscal revenue and expenditure pressure determine that the space and direction for policy and reform choices are actually relatively limited and predictable:1) Finance may be relatively strong in the second half of the year: the government's fiscal bond issuance in the first half of the year was significantly lower than expected. The concentrated \"bidding, auction and listing\" of land supported the \"six guarantees\" of local governments in the first half of the year. It is expected that the pace of fiscal bond issuance in the second half of the year may accelerate, and it is difficult to further ease liquidity. It is expected that interest rates may be difficult to fall further in at least the third quarter.2) Income distribution reform under \"common prosperity\": Compared with developed countries such as the United States, the tax contribution of the top 1% of the rich in my country is significantly lower: personal tax in the United States accounts for 55% of the total government tax revenue.The top 1% of families contribute 17% of tax revenue, but pay 25% of federal income tax； However, China's individual tax accounts for only 7.2% of tax revenue, and the lack of \"asset tax\" related to the rich is the most important reason for this difference. Under the increasing pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the rich should assume more social responsibilities,It is expected that the pilot of real estate tax and the post-reforms of consumption tax collection may be accelerated in the second half of the year, which may cause certain fluctuations in the segmentation of luxury goods such as mid-to-high-end liquor.3) Under the increasing pressure on social security, on the one hand, compared with U.S. pensions, where corporate and individual components account for more than 90% of the total, among the \"three pillars\" of my country's pensions, corporate annuities and personal commercial pensions The proportion of insurance is obviously low. For example, in 2018, corporate annuities only accounted for 18% of the total.Only 0.25% of enterprises provide enterprise annuity, accounting for only 2.5% of the total number of participants in basic old-age insurance; The personal commercial endowment insurance only accounts for 4% of the total.。 Under the \"retirement tide\", it is expected that from the second half of this year, encouraging enterprises and individuals to increase the proportion of pension contributions will also accelerate, which may further increase the concentration of industry leaders.On the other hand, increasing investment income through the capital market will be an important way to alleviate the pressure of social security, and it will be the general trend for social security and pensions to further increase the proportion of social security and pensions entering the market. The recent accelerated implementation of state-owned enterprise reform actions such as equity incentives and market value management assessment of central enterprises will also help increase their investment income. In the context of subsequent long-term incremental funds entering the market, low-valued blue chips such as central enterprises may usher in trend opportunities for valuation restoration.4) Under the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure and the intensification of geopolitical confrontation, the contradiction between independent and controllable key technologies and the urgency of continuous capital investment determines that direct financing through the capital market, rather than traditional financial subsidies, will be the key to the development of my country's science and technology industry. main form. Therefore structurally,Guide market funds to be allocated more to key science and technology fields, may be an important direction of capital market reform, such as: the recent mass entrepreneurship and innovation 50 and the intensive sale of science and technology innovation 50 funds. Therefore, key technological fields such as science and technology innovation 50, military industry, and semiconductors will be the most important main lines of investment in the second half of this year and longer in the future.The A-share market is generally optimistic in the second half of the year-β is not easy to grasp, α has a greater chanceSince interest rates are expected to fall in the long run, monetary policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the pace of fiscal expenditure will accelerate, it seems that the stock market should be more optimistic.Zhongtai Financial Engineering Analyst Zhang HanThrough tracking of market funds, it is found that,The issuance scale of public funds has risen from the low point of 30 billion per month to the current 80 billion。 The reduction of industrial capital remains at a high position, with a monthly reduction of about 70 billion yuan, and the regularity of foreign capital changes is weak. Compared with the beginning of this year, the scale of industrial capital reduction is similar, but the scale of fund issuance is obviously smaller. If the scale of public offerings can continue to increase, it will bring incremental funds to the market. In addition, it can be seen from changes in market sentiment scores that,Market risk appetite has increased, and the short-term market may perform better.Chen Long, Chief Strategy Officer of ZhongtaiIt is believed that interest rates are expected to fall further in the second half of the year when economic growth may be lower than expected and liquidity may be better than expected. The strength of the US dollar is accompanied by the depreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate. The commodity peak has passed. In the second half of the year, the equity market will experience repeated economic growth and liquidity expectations, and it may exceed or fall short of expectations. Therefore, we believe that the volatility of the equity market will increase in the second half of the year, and the market conditions are still structural.β opportunities are not easy to grasp, it is recommended to pay more attention to α。Therefore, in terms of industry allocation, (1) focus on new energy and new energy vehicles, technology manufacturing (semiconductors, Hongmeng, consumer electronics), military industry, etc. with stable performance, accelerated profit increase, and high prosperity in the industry; The consumption sector pays more attention to new consumption. At the same time, be wary of the risk of decline in the interim performance of some machinery industries, light industries, and some food and beverage industries.Tang JunIt is believed that the current regulatory situation has an adverse impact on wealth management funds and the leverage allocation of interest rate bonds by small and medium-sized financial institutions, which may affect the downward trend of interest rates. However, after the rise of Treasury Bond's interest rate last year and the rapid decline of the yield of bank wealth management products, the current yield of ten-year Treasury Bond is almost the same as that of the wealth management products of major state-owned banks (about 3.2%-3.3%), which may mean that the relative attractiveness of the Treasury Bond will gradually increase, and there is little room for the upward yield.To maintain the view that inflation may exceed expectations, in addition to the impact of the epidemic on supply and demand mentioned earlier, the impact of policy interventions such as trade protectionism and reducing foreign dependence on the global supply chain will also bring about a chain effect of pushing up costs. reaction. In the long-term global free trade in the past, the supply chain and logistics network have formed a relatively stable ecology with cost optimization. However, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain and human intervention not only led to an increase in direct procurement costs, but also broke the original \"optimal path\" of the logistics network, resulting in a large increase in demand for transportation capacity and insufficient transportation capacity. For example, in some places, it is hard to find a container, while in other places, a large number of empty containers are piled up, which just breaks the original logistics ecology. For many commodities, the main origin and consumption places are far apart, and freight may account for more than half of the cost.It is recommended that major asset classes be allocated in a relatively balanced manner, and commodities that benefit from inflation are slightly overweighted.Observing the allocation value of cyclical stocks from futures contractsZhongtai Strategist Wang ShijinThrough the analysis of the term structure of futures contracts, it is found that when a futures variety presents a forward rising structure, the sustainability of the corresponding commodity rise will be better, and the excess returns of the corresponding stocks will also be obvious. For the middle and upstream sectors of the cycle, when there are a large number of futures showing a forward rising structure, the probability of the sector rising is higher. In the past period of time, the number of futures showing a bullish structure has decreased, but there are still many futures showing a bullish structure, and the middle and upper reaches of the short-term cycle are still relatively strong.U.S. monetary policy cycle and U.S. bond spread performance<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a90cd1f8a2e8bdcec353a0065b58f6d\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteMarkets appear to have started trading to reduce QE. The last round of reduction panic occurred in May 2013. When Bernanke proposed to reduce the scale of QE in the future, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose by more than 100 bp in more than 2 months, and then in December 2013, when When the Federal Reserve began to truly slow down the scale of bond purchases, the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds actually went down. The same thing has happened recently. Although the issue of reducing QE was not mentioned in the statement of last week's FOMC meeting, the recent trend of short-term U.S. bonds and long-term U.S. bonds is completely opposite. The spread has dropped by 20bp in the last 10 trading days.This operation of selling short and buying long is a common trading behavior in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet and the stage of QE reduction. During the last round of QE reduction from early December 2013 to the end of October 2014, the long-term and short-term interest rate spreads of U.S. bonds continued to decline. Although many domestic voices are still in the stage of reducing panic, the market seems to be trading another scenario. The difference is that the last reduction of QE lasted for a year, and this time the pace of reduction may become faster, mainly because the impact of this epidemic and the changes in economic state brought about by previous credit shocks are different.Putting aside the supply and demand structure to talk about the trend of interest rates is purely a slap in the head. Recently, more and more macro analysts have begun to pay attention to overseas markets. For example, the scale of ON-RRP continues to hit record highs, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting raised the IOER interest rate. However, few people mentioned the recent supply and demand status of U.S. bonds, such as the recent purchase by the New York Fed. The rhythm of Treasury Bond and MBS, the rhythm of bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury Department, etc.In fact, since April this year,The U.S. bond market has been in a state where the scale of bond purchases is greater than the scale of bond issuance, which is the basis for the continued decline in US Treasury yields throughout the second quarter, followed by factors such as inflation expectations and monetary policy expectations. An important reason for the slowdown in U.S. bond issuance in the second quarter is that due to the impact of the debt ceiling day at the end of July, the balance of the U.S. Treasury's TGA account with the Federal Reserve dropped from more than US $1.1 trillion in early April to US $730 billion, and will remain before the end of July. Further decline, which actually increased together with QE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The scale of reserves in the inter-market, and the scale of ON-RRP continues to hit new highs, which means that the market can no longer accept too many reserves. The recent transaction scale accounts for more than 20% of bank reserves. From this perspective, the situation of excess liquidity will not change much before August, and then the upward pressure on interest rates brought by the supply side may be highlighted.Emerging Market Stock Price Index and the US Dollar Index<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b37fcee8b3ecf9403a44e30544dfbdc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteLooking at macro-driven opportunities,In the second half of the year, we can consider the appreciation of the US dollar on the left side。 The viewpoint of the discussion at the end of May mentioned that the US dollar is more likely to strengthen in the second half of the year, mainly due to two factors: First, as the vaccination rate increases, the Federal Reserve will prepare to reduce QE; on the other hand, the economic growth of other the US Dollar Index-constituting countries is significantly slower than that of the United States. At present, after the FOMC meeting, the US Dollar Index has rebounded, but it remains more at the expected level. If we refer to the performance of the US dollar from the last round of QE reduction to the end of QE, the US Dollar Index's accelerated upward trend began in July 2014, that is, the later period of QE reduction.Overall, as the employment level in the United States gradually recovers and inflation returns to above the AIT target, it is a high probability event that QE will begin to reduce in the second half of the year, which is conducive to the strengthening of the US Dollar Index. As far as the stock market is concerned, companies with a relatively high proportion of overseas revenue deserve attention. For example, consumer electronics, API and other sectors that performed well in 2019 and 20 years, but were greatly affected by exchange losses in 21 years, dragging down the company's performance. The macro environment in the second half of the year may be a bonus for such companies.The index structure is getting healthier and healthier, and the breakthrough is imminent. In terms of funds, fund issuance has picked up significantly recently. Since June, the scale of newly established partial equity funds has been close to the sum of April-May. The continuous substantial net inflow of northbound funds is superimposed on the approach of the centenary of the founding of the Party. Short-term market sentiment is expected to remain high. At the same time, the index structure has improved significantly compared with the beginning of the year. Different from the valuation market of a few companies in January, the current number of stocks in the whole market that exceed the high point of the first quarter is close to 1,200, and the other nearly 1,000 stocks are less than 10% away from the high point of the first quarter.%, such as the last round leading the gains<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WX\">WuXi AppTec</a>It has reached a new high recently, and representative stocks in other active sectors such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>It is only one step away from the high point in the first quarter. Under the current sentiment window, the probability of such companies hitting new highs is relatively high. The resilience of these heavyweights also means the resilience of the index.Stocks are better than bonds: sticking to the technological growth of the A-share marketZhongtai Strategy Analyst Zhang WenyuIt is believed that anti-epidemic efficiency is productivity. The economic recovery and changes in the macro-policy environment in the second half of the year still need to closely track the pace of epidemic control. The current vaccination speed of global economies is diverging. From the perspective of vaccination rates, the proportions of fully vaccinated people in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany are 46.76%, 44.98%, and 32.24% respectively, which are much higher than3.72%, 0.14% in developing countries such as India and Vietnam。 However, the vaccination rate in developed economies has declined significantly. Based on the current vaccination rate, the vaccination rate in the United States will most likely reach the Federal Reserve's 75% target level at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter.The proportion of fully vaccinated population in Britain and the United States is 46.76% and 44.98%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235afc25c5fb84adbc90634c0d8f8ff3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Ourworldindata, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteAt the same time, considering that the third quarter is the time when the U.S. fiscal department suspends all unemployment benefits, the recovery of the U.S. job market may strengthen in the fourth quarter. By then, the output gap of developed countries such as the United States may begin to be repaired with the recovery of domestic production supply chains, thereby reducing \"over-dependence\" on Chinese exports. In addition, part of Biden's infrastructure stimulus plan is expected to be implemented, and the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit in the second half of the year will also promote the repair of the output gap. In other words, strong exports, the core kinetic energy of the domestic economy this year, may face weakening in the fourth quarter.The expansion of U.S. fiscal deficits is expected to promote the repair of output gap<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ba838570bbff68a84b6dc44e31e414a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: OECD, FRED, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteFrom the perspective of domestic economic performance, the Politburo meeting in April proposed that the economic recovery in the first quarter was uneven, but since the second quarter, the current situation of uneven recovery in manufacturing and consumption still exists. With the repair of the output gap in developed demand countries such as the United States in the fourth quarter, the momentum of domestic exports has decreased, and the momentum of sustained economic recovery has declined, or it may rely more on loose macro policies to ensure the demand for stabilizing the economy in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. At the same time, the release of domestic guiding signals on upstream raw material prices and the effect of the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have emerged. PPI will fall in the second half of the year, and domestic macro liquidity may still maintain a relatively loose monetary environment.To sum up, in the third quarter, before the Federal Reserve officially sent a signal to reduce asset purchases, the output gap had not quickly converged, the market's expectations for inflation fell, and the long-term interest rate in the United States remained weak and volatile. However, domestic liquidity has slowly turned in the first half of the year, and the economic growth momentum has weakened in the second half of the year. Domestic monetary policy still maintains relatively loose liquidity, and the equity market may be dominated by structural opportunities of growth style.In terms of asset allocation in the second half of the year, the equity market may perform better than the bond market and commodities. Focusing on the centenary of the founding of the Party and the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the implementation of reform policies is expected to increase market risk appetite and stick to emerging sectors such as growth technology. 1) Commodities: Global economic recovery is still on the way,Crude oil, energy and chemicals priced globally may continue to fluctuate upward； 2) A-share market: Technology sectors such as military industry, technology stocks, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 enjoy valuation repairs and policy premiums. The current valuations of the military industry, communications, computer and electronics sectors are at the historical quantiles of 32.47%, 21.18%, 53.82% and 31.76% in the past ten years, respectively, and there is still room for improvement in the overall valuation; In addition, structural opportunities for core technologies supported by performance, new energy, semiconductors, and new materials will also be highlighted.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149610930","content_text":"再过4天，今年上半年就将过去了，下周四将迎来建党百年大庆。也有人担心利好兑现后市场见顶。为此，中泰总量团队周末讨论会就下半年我国的利率走势及财政政策展开讨论，分析中美货币政策的走向、财政支出的节奏对资本市场的影响。\n下半年及长期利率走向如何看\n中泰宏观首席陈兴认为，下半年利率或将呈现“先上后下”的走势，短期利率上行的风险更大，而待调整后下行趋势更为顺畅。对于大类资产配置而言，债市优势或较为突出，权益市场存在结构性机会，而商品市场受价格下行拖累，表现不如上半年。\n不论是从经济增长还是通胀的角度来看，下半年国内环境都有利于利率水平的下行。首先，经济增长的压力将逐渐显现。疫情以来，全球经济循环最为突出的两个方面就是美国的消费和中国的出口，美国个人消费支出疫情过后的经济增长中贡献远远超过私人投资，净出口和政府支出，与之对应的就是我国出口的高景气。而我国去年下半年出口增速12个百分点之中，超过4个百分点都是对美出口所拉动。\n随着美国补贴退潮、通胀高企令居民实际收入受损和消费结构转变三大因素的变化，美国消费对我国出口的拉动力量会趋于减弱。虽然国内消费和制造业投资增速会有恢复，但内生动力不如补贴刺激下的外生动力强劲。\n其次，从通胀来看，国内下半年的态势要比上半年缓和很多。全球疫情见顶回落以及国内“保供稳价”的举措使得大宗商品定价逻辑重回需求主导。而偏弱的经济恢复态势意味着大多数工业品价格不具备持续上涨的基础，加上基数效应给PPI增速造成的压力下半年也趋于缓解，本轮PPI增速向CPI增速传导效率也并不高，下半年通胀压力有所减轻。但我们还需注意到短期因素的扰动。目前还有两方面风险事实上难以消除：一是美国货币政策趋于转向，虽然我国债市收益率根本上来说由国内环境决定，但也会受到外部环境变化的干扰，上一次TAPER时期我国的利率水平就被牵引上移；二是下半年财政集中融资带来的供给冲击，所以短期利率上行风险更大。\n中泰政策研究首席杨畅阐述了长债利率或缓慢向下的理由：对于长债利率的判断，还是依托对基本面的判断。经济仍在修复，但动能趋弱，未来可能出现下行的压力。从生产端来看，已经逼近正常状态；从需求端来看，投资环比增速有所放缓；消费具有一定韧性；出口延续性可能面临压力。\n中泰固定收益首席周岳认为，上半年利率债市场有两个特征：一是利率低波动。10Y国债收益率基本围绕中枢3.17%±10BP波动。低波动源于三个因素：从基本面看，“新常态”后减速降档，经济周期波动减弱；货币政策逐渐由总量型转为结构性，风格从大开大合转为微调预调；资金方面，政策利率的锚定作用不断上升。\n二是资金面成主导。从上半年收益率的几个波段来看，每个阶段主要期限国债收益率变动方向均一致，但短债变动幅度明显大于长端，表明基本面影响钝化，资金面才是上半年利率走势的主导因素。\n货币信用环境方面，经济恢复不均衡、基础不稳固，货币政策收紧可能性较低，但稳杠杆和控地产制约宽松空间，货币政策预计“不紧不松”。年内信用收缩最快的时点已接近尾声，三季度社融增速预计继续小幅回落，四季度有望企稳。\n综合资金利率中枢和当前10Y国债收益率水平看，利差保护性较强，收益率向上调整空间有限。但是，年内基本面大幅走弱倒逼货币政策转向宽松的可能性较低，因此熊牛拐点的迹象还不明显。下半年“经济复苏放缓，货币政策稳健，紧信用趋缓”的环境下，收益率预计延续区间震荡态势。\n中泰固收分析师肖雨认为，紧信用压力明显缓和。1-5月份社融增速大幅回落，一方面受去年同期高基数影响，另一方面信用环境确实明显收缩。不同于2017年-2018年的去杠杆，今年在“稳杠杆”基调下，社融回落主要源于结构性因素。相比去年同期，人民币贷款基本持平，同比少增的分项主要是信托贷款、企业债和政府债等。考虑到固定资产投资仍在恢复，贷款需求指数处于较高水平，同时名义贷款利率面临上升压力，实体内生融资需求并未显著下滑。基于主要分项的跟踪预测，判断年内信用收缩最快的时点接近尾声，尽管三季度社融增速继续小幅回落，但四季度有望企稳。\n下半年社融增速有望企稳（%）\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n中泰金融工程首席唐军认为， 下半年国债利率上下空间都不大。因为我国国债最大的持有人是商业银行，从商业银行的负债成本的变化来看其对国债配置需求的变化，或许能提供一个新视角。银行间的资金利率、对金融机构间资金空转套利的监管力度、资管新规禁止理财资金池模式等，都会影响商业银行配置国债的资金成本。\n分别来看，银行间的资金利率主要是央行调控下的结果，下半年央行的货币松紧大概率保持较稳定。根据中泰时钟构建的资金空力度的指标，对金融机构间资金空转套利的监管力度自2020年4月份以来明显趋严，目前仍处于较严的状态，不利于国债利率下行。而资管新规对理财资金池模式的取缔也会抬升理财资金的成本。比如在资金池模式下，银行可以滚动发行7天、15天等短期限、低成本的产品，通过期限错配，配置一定比例的长期国债。而且在资金池的模式下，大资金池总要留出一部分资金应对滚动发行的流动性风险，这部分钱往往会成为隔夜资金的出借方，给中小金融机构提供了廉价的资金，利于他们加杠杆配置利率债。\n李迅雷发表了与上述稍有不同的观点：曾在2017年专门研究过利率与经济增长的关系。发现美国、日本、欧洲和印度的10年期国债收益率跟其名义GDP增速都是比较接近的，尤其是美国，10年期国债收益率和名义GDP增速基本在一条线上。而中国的10年期国债的收益率长期看非常稳定，2017年的时候约为3.6-3.7%，远低于中国名义GDP增速，如今经济增速已经明显回落，但10年期国债的收益率仍保持在3.17%附近双向波动。\n中国十年期国债收益率与名义GDP关系\n\n数据来源：WIND, 中泰证券研究所\n美国十年期国债收益率与名义GDP关系\n\n数据来源：WIND, 中泰证券研究所\n这说明中国的长期利率水平实际上是偏低的。之所以大家都在抱怨融资贵，是因为我国的市场经济还不成熟，信用环境有待改善，有信用背书的，如央企的融资成本就非常低。\n长期利率长期偏低是导致国内资产价格偏贵、形成“刚性泡沫”的主要原因。如国内房价无论从租售比还是从房价收入比的角度看，都远高于国际水平。同样，很多含H股的A股的股价基本上也比其H股贵一倍左右甚至更多，而香港市场的利率水平比内地要低得多。\n那么，是什么原因导致国内长期利率水平一直偏低呢？利率是资金的价格，受资金的供需关系影响。国内的资金供给规模还是非常巨大，为了稳增长，央行、财政部、四大行、国企执行或参与逆周期政策一直不断，故过去20年的M2的增速大大超过名义GDP增速。\n除了政策因素外，还有一个原因是2000年以后居民储蓄率的上行，这与居民降低消费率，大规模配置住宅等房地产相关。居民储蓄率的最低点是1999年，从1999年的27.63％上升到2010年的42.1％，增加了14.5个百分点。尽管到2018年我国的居民储蓄率已经降至34.8%，但仍远高于发达国家的普遍水平。\n我国居民消费率与储蓄率\n\n数据来源：WIND，中泰证券研究所\n假设各项前提条件不变，随着经济增速下行，利率下行确实是大趋势。但随着今后人口老龄化背景下，居民储蓄率的不断下行，消费占比增加而投资占比下降，通胀率有所回升，则名义利率会否有所上升呢？\n财政收支视角下——\n政策改革方向及资本市场投资机会\n肖雨认为，下半年“财政后置”效果可能低于预期。1-5月，基建投资两年复合增速仅为3.3%，低于2020年全年水平（3.4%）。基建投资复苏乏力和财政支出表现较为吻合，1-5月份广义财政支出仅增长0.8%，动态赤字率进一步下降，已经低于2019年同期水平。下半年随着新增专项债发行提速和预算支出进度的上升，基建投资存在小幅回升的可能。但是，“财政后置”的刺激作用可能有限。一是受新增减税政策效应释放和去年下半年同期基数相对较高影响，全年收入增速可能呈现前高后低走势，财政收支总体处于紧平衡状态，制约发力空间；二是严控地方债务风险、降低政府部门杠杆率、城投新增融资收缩的背景下，地方政府基建投资的意愿和能力仍受约束。\n1-5月财政支出预算进度缓慢（%）\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n杨畅认为，在财政政策上，“逆周期”调节的姿态就更加明显了。在城镇调查失业率进一步走低，经济仍然处于修复通道过程中，财政政策过度发力，反而会用力过猛。下半年，如果经济触顶基本完成，经济如果出现下行，或者下行压力过大，财政政策发力的空间仍然是有的。这就导致经济下行的斜率，不会过于陡峭。\n中泰策略分析师徐驰认为，财政是预判政策方向最重要的基准，今年起，三大压力下，未来我国财政压力或上升较快：第一，我国历史上最大的“婴儿潮”（62年至73年）,逐步进入退休高峰期，这意味着，今后每年有近3000万人将由纳税人变成需要财政供养的退休人员，且持续时间十年以上；第二，东西方博弈及对抗加大下，军事、外交及科技投入或呈螺旋增长趋势；第三，尽管房住不炒已成为国策，但存量经济下，地方财政对土地财政的依赖度已连续5年上行，目前已超过84%。所谓在“更少选择之下走更对的路”，在财政收支压力增大的“硬约束”，决定了政策和改革可供选择的空间及方向其实是相对有限和可以预判的：\n1）下半年财政或将相对发力：上半年政府财政发债明显低于预期下，土地集中“招拍挂”支撑了上半年地方政府的“六保”，预计下半年财政发债节奏或将提速，在流动性难以进一步宽松下，预计至少在三季度，利率或较难进一步下行。\n2）“共同富裕”下的收入分配改革：与美国等发达国家相比，我国前1%的富人的税收贡献明显偏低：美国个税占政府税收总收入55%，前1%的家庭贡献税收收入占比17%，交纳联邦所得税占比却达25%；而我国个税占税收收入比重仅为7.2%，与富人相关的“资产税”的缺乏是造成这一差异的最重要原因。在财政收支压力越来越大下，富人理应承担更多社会责任，预计房地产税的试点以及消费税征收环节后置等改革，在下半年亦或提速，这或将对中高端白酒等奢侈品细分造成一定的波动。\n3）社保压力越来越大下，一方面，与美国养老金，企业与个人部分合计占比超过90%相比，我国养老金构成的“三大支柱”之中，企业年金与个人商业养老保险占比明显偏低，比如：2018年，企业年金仅占总量的18%，仅有0.25%的企业提供企业年金，仅占基本养老保险总参保人数的2.5%；而个人商业养老保险部分更是仅占总量的4%。“退休潮”下，预计今年下半年起，鼓励企业与个人增加养老金缴纳比例亦将加速，这或将进一步加大行业龙头的集中度。\n另一方面，通过资本市场增加投资收益将是缓解社保压力的重要路径，社保、养老金进一步增加入市比例将是大势所趋。近期央企股权激励及市值管理考核等国企改革动作的加速落地，亦将有助于其投资收益的增加。在后续长期增量资金入市的背景下，央企等低估值蓝筹或将迎来估值修复的趋势性机会。\n4）财政收支压力与地缘对抗加剧下，关键科技自主可控，需要持续资金投入的迫切性这一矛盾，决定了通过资本市场直接融资，而非传统的财政补贴，将是我国发展科技行业的主要形式。故结构上，引导市场资金更多的向关键科技领域配置，或将是资本市场改革的重要方向，如：近期双创50，科创50基金密集发售。故科创50、军工、半导体等关键科技领域将是今年下半年以及未来更长时间，最重要的投资主线。\n下半年A股市场总体看好——\nβ不好把握，α机会更大\n既然从长期看，利率有望下行，下半年货币政策将维持稳定，财政支出节奏加快，那么，股市似乎也应该更乐观些。\n中泰金融工程分析师张晗通过对于市场资金面的跟踪发现，公募基金发行规模从低点每月募集300亿上升至当前的800亿。产业资本减持仍然维持在较高位置，月度减持700亿左右，外资变化的规律性较弱。与今年年初相比，产业资本减持规模相差不多，但是基金发行规模明显偏少。若公募发行规模能够持续提升，则会为市场带来增量资金，此外通过市场情绪得分的变化可以看出，市场风险偏好提升，短期市场或有较好表现。\n中泰策略首席陈龙认为，在经济增长可能低于预期与流动性可能好于预期的情况下，下半年利率有望进一步走低。美元强势伴随着人民币汇率有贬值趋势。大宗商品顶点已过。下半年权益市场将会在经济增长与流动性预期上反复，超预期或者低于预期都可能存在。因此，我们认为下半年权益市场的波动性将会增大，市场行情仍然是结构性的，β机会不好把握，建议更加关注α。\n因此，在行业配置方面，（1）重点关注业绩稳健，盈利加速上调，行业维持高景气的新能源及新能源汽车、科技制造（半导体、鸿蒙、消费电子）、军工等；消费领域更加关注新消费。同时警惕部分机械行业、轻工、部分食品饮料中报业绩的下滑风险。\n唐军认为，目前的监管态势对理财资金和中小金融机构加杠杆配置利率债有不利影响，这可能影响了利率的下行。但经过去年国债利率的上行以及银行理财产品收益率的较快下行，当前十年期国债收益率与国有大行的理财产品的收益率（3.2%-3.3%左右）已经相差无几，这可能意味着国债的相对吸引力将逐步提升，收益率上行的空间也很小了。\n维持通胀可能超预期的观点，除了之前提到的疫情对供给、需求方面的影响之外，贸易保护主义、降低对外依存度等政策干预对全球供应链的冲击也会带来推升成本的连锁反应。在过去长期的全球化自由贸易中，供应链和物流网络都形成了成本最优化的较稳定的生态，而疫情对供应链的影响以及人为的干预不仅导致直接采购成本提高，还会打破物流网络原来的“最优路径”，造成对运力需求大增以及运力不足的问题。比如，一些地方集装箱一箱难求，而另一些地方空集装箱大量堆积，正是打破了原来物流生态的表现。而对很多大宗商品来说，主要产地和消费地都相距甚远，运费在成本中占比可能超过一半。建议大类资产相对均衡配置，小幅超配受益通胀的大宗商品。\n从期货合约观察周期股配置价值\n中泰策略分析师王仕进通过对期货合约的期限结构进行分析发现，当一个期货品种呈现出远期上涨结构的时候，对应的大宗商品上涨的持续性会更好，对应股票的超额收益也明显。对于周期中上游板块，当呈现远期上涨结构的期货数量较多时，板块上涨的概率较高。过去一段时间呈现看涨结构的期货数量减少，但当前仍然有多种期货呈现看涨结构，短期内周期中上游仍然偏强。\n 美国货币政策周期与美债利差表现\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n市场似乎已经开始交易缩减QE。上一轮削减恐慌发生在13年5月，伯南克提出未来要缩减QE规模的时候，10年期美债收益率2个多月上行了100多个bp，而随后13年12月，当美联储开始真正意义上放缓购债规模的时候，美债长端利率实际上是下行的。同样的事情在近期已经发生，尽管上周FOMC会议声明里没有提到缩减QE的问题，但近期短期美债和长期美债的走势截然相反，30年期美债和5年期美债的利差最近10个交易日下降了20bp。\n这种卖短买长的操作是缩表初期和缩减QE阶段常见的一种交易行为，上一轮从13年12月初开始缩减QE至14年10月底结束QE期间，美债长短端利差持续走低。尽管国内不少声音还停留在削减恐慌的阶段，但市场似乎已经在交易另外一个场景。区别的是，上一次缩减QE持续了一年，这一次缩减节奏可能会变快，主要是因为这次疫情冲击和以往信用冲击带来的经济状态变化是不同的。\n抛开供需结构来谈利率走势纯是拍脑袋。近期越来越多的宏观分析师开始关注海外市场，比如ON-RRP规模持续创历史新高，美联储议息会议提高IOER利率等，但鲜有人提及近期的美债供需状态，比如纽约联储最近购买国债和MBS的节奏，美国财政部发行债券的节奏等。\n实际上今年4月以来，美债市场一直处在购债规模大于发债规模的状态，这是整个二季度美债利率持续下行的基础，其次才是通胀预期、货币政策预期等因素。二季度美债发行放缓的一个重要原因是受7月底的债务上限日影响，美国财政部在美联储的TGA账户余额从4月初的1.1万多亿美元降至7300亿美元，7月底之前还会进一步下降，这其实与QE一起增加了美国银行间市场准备金的规模，而ON-RRP规模持续创新高，意味着市场已经承接不了过多的准备金，最近的成交规模占银行准备金的比例已经超过20%。从这个角度看，8月之前流动性过剩的局面不会发生太大变化，之后可能供给端带来的利率上行压力会有所凸显。\n新兴市场股价指数与美元指数\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n宏观驱动的机会来看，下半年可以考虑左侧布局美元升值。5月底讨论会观点提到，美元下半年走强的可能性较高，主要源自两方面因素：一是随着疫苗接种率提升，美联储会准备缩减QE，另一方面其他美元指数构成国的经济增长显著慢于美国。目前来看，FOMC会议后，美元指数有所反弹，但更多停留在预期层面，如果参考上一轮缩减QE到结束QE期间的美元表现，美元指数加速上行开始于2014年7月，即缩减QE的后期。\n整体而言，随着美国就业水平逐渐恢复，通胀也恢复至AIT目标之上，下半年开始缩减QE是大概率事件，这有利于美元指数走强。对股票市场而言，海外收入占比较高的公司值得关注，如在19年、20年有过不错表现，但21年受汇兑损失影响较大，拖累公司业绩的消费电子、原料药等板块，下半年的宏观环境可能是这类公司的加分项。\n指数结构愈发健康，突破前高箭在弦上。资金面来看，近期基金发行明显回暖，6月以来新成立偏股型基金规模已经接近4-5月总和，北上资金持续大幅净流入叠加建党百年临近，短期市场情绪有望维持高位。同时，指数结构较年初明显改善，与1月份少数公司的抱团提估值行情不同，当前全市场超过一季度股价高点的个股数接近1200只，另外近1000只个股距离一季度高点不足10%，比如上一轮领涨的宁德时代和药明康德在近期已经创新高，而其他活跃板块的代表性个股如隆基股份、东方财富等距离一季度高点也只有一步之遥，当前情绪窗口下，这类公司创新高的概率比较大，这些权重股的韧性也同时意味着指数的韧性。\n股优于债：坚守A股市场的科技成长\n中泰策略分析师张文宇认为，抗疫效率就是生产力。下半年的经济复苏及宏观政策环境变化，仍需要紧密跟踪疫情的控制节奏。当前全球经济体的疫苗接种速度出现分化，从疫苗接种率来看，英国、美国、德国已完全接种疫苗的人口比例分别为46.76%、44.98%、32.24%，远高于印度、越南等发展中国家的3.72%、0.14%。但发达经济体的疫苗接种率速度出现明显下滑，按照目前的疫苗接种率来推演，美国疫苗接种率大概率三季度末四季度初才会达到美联储的75%目标水平。\n英美完全接种疫苗人口比例为46.76%、44.98%\n\n来源：Ourworldindata，中泰证券研究所\n同时，考虑到三季度是美国财政对失业补助金全部暂停的时间点，美国就业市场的恢复或在四季度增强。届时，美国等发达国家的产出缺口或才开始伴随国内生产端供应链的恢复而修复，从而减少对中国出口产品的“过度依赖”。此外，拜登部分基建刺激计划有望付出实施，而下半年美国财政赤字化的扩张也会推动产出缺口修复。也就是说，今年以来国内经济的核心动能——强劲的出口可能在四季度面临减弱。\n美国财政赤字化的扩张预计会推动产出缺口修复\n\n来源：OECD，FRED，中泰证券研究所\n从国内经济表现来看，4月份的政治局会议上提出一季度经济复苏不均衡，而二季度以来，制造业及消费不均衡复苏的现状仍然存在。伴随四季度美国等发达需求国的产出缺口修复，国内出口动能消减，经济持续复苏动能衰减，或更依赖于宽松的宏观政策保障十四五开局之年稳经济的诉求。同时，国内对上游原材料价格信号引导作用释放以及国家保供稳价政策效应显现，下半年PPI会呈现回落，国内宏观流动性或仍保持较为宽松的货币环境。\n综上而言，三季度在美联储没有正式发出缩减资产购买的信号之前，产出缺口还没有快速收敛，市场对通胀的预期回落，美国长端利率仍维持弱势震荡状态。而国内流动性在上半年已经缓慢转向，下半年经济增长动能减弱，国内货币政策仍然维持较宽松的流动性，权益市场或以成长风格的结构性机会为主。\n就下半年大类资产配置而言，权益市场表现或好于债市及商品，围绕建党百年及十四五开局之年，改革政策落地预期提升市场风险偏好，坚守成长科技等新兴领域板块。1）商品方面：全球经济复苏仍在路上，以全球定价的原油、能化等或仍延续震荡上行态势；2）A股市场：军工、科技股及科创50等科技板块更享受估值修复及政策溢价。当前军工、通信、计算机及电子板块的估值处于过去十年历史分位数分别为32.47%、21.18%、53.82%及31.76%，整体估值仍有提升空间；此外，有业绩支撑的核心科技，新能源、半导体、新材料的结构性机会也会凸显。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2354,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}