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2021-06-28

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What to speculate in A-shares in the second half of the year? This sector is unanimously favored by institutions!

还有3个交易日，A股2021年上半年即将收官。截至6月25日收盘，沪深两市共有529家上市公司发布上半年业绩预告，其中，预喜公司数量达329家（含预增、略增、扭亏、续盈），占比62.19%。这一比例高

What to speculate in A-shares in the second half of the year? This sector is unanimously favored by institutions!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":127225006,"tweetId":"127225006","gmtCreate":1624852081105,"gmtModify":1703846226064,"author":{"id":3583994288696392,"idStr":"3583994288696392","authorId":3583994288696392,"authorIdStr":"3583994288696392","name":"Elvan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0e8b90b25bd323f5bb15ac247bd641","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127225006","repostId":1199186422,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199186422","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1624849796,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199186422?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:09","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What to speculate in A-shares in the second half of the year? This sector is unanimously favored by institutions!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199186422","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"还有3个交易日，A股2021年上半年即将收官。截至6月25日收盘，沪深两市共有529家上市公司发布上半年业绩预告，其中，预喜公司数量达329家（含预增、略增、扭亏、续盈），占比62.19%。这一比例高","content":"There are still 3 trading days left, and the first half of A-shares in 2021 is about to end. As of the close of trading on June 25, a total of 529 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had released performance forecasts for the first half of the year. Among them, the number of pre-happy companies reached 329 (including pre-increase, slight increase, loss turnaround, and continued profit), accounting for 62.19%. This ratio is higher than before.Regarding the market in the second half of the year, most institutions expressed optimism and suggested that investors pay attention to the big technology sector.1、Fundamentals: More than 60% of listed companies are happyaccording to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Straight flush</a>Statistics found that since June, 39 A-share listed companies have disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts for 2021. In addition to the companies that had previously predicted the interim report data in the first quarterly report and other announcements, as of the close of June 25, a total of 529 listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had released performance forecasts for the first half of the year. Among them, the number of pre-happy companies reached 329 (including pre-increase, slight increase, turnaround and continued profit), accounting for 62.19%. It is worth noting that pre-happy companies in the three industries of steel, mining and transportation account for the largest proportion of constituent stocks in the industry.At present, there are not many companies that have disclosed their semi-annual results for 2021, and 529 companies only account for about 13% of A-share listed companies. However, judging from the disclosed companies alone, 60% of listed companies have pre-happy mid-term reports, which should be said to be better than the A-share mid-term report seasons over the years.Previously, in 2019 and 2020, the pre-happiness ratio of listed companies was around 40% to 50%.Querying the historical data shows that:As of July 15, 2019, companies with mid-term pre-happy reports accounted for 52.66% of the total number announced;In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the proportion of companies with good interim reports is low. As of July 15, 2020, companies with good interim reports accounted for 52.66% of the total number that has been announced.Liu Youhua, research director of private placement network, believes that grasping the interim report market requires certain investment skills, such as intervening in advance, instead of waiting for the interim report performance forecast to come out, otherwise there will be certain chasing risks.Pre-happy companies in the three industries of steel, mining and transportation account for the highest proportion of constituent stocks in the industry.Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the performance of the steel industry in the first half of the year is expected to be relatively good, mainly benefiting from the economic recovery, because the base affected by the epidemic last year was relatively low. With the economic recovery, the demand for steel has gradually increased, so the performance of the steel industry is relatively good.\"Against the background of gradual economic recovery, the performance of the coal sector in the mining industry is expected to achieve a marginal substantial improvement.\" Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Sichuan Finance Securities, said, \"The core reason for the performance growth of the coal industry this year lies in the continuous rise of coal prices. Since the beginning of this year, global commodities have ushered in a new round of inflation cycle, and coal is one of the most typical representative products. The second half of the year will usher in the peak heating season, and changes in environmental protection policies will also have a direct impact at any time. Overall, the performance of the coal sector in 2021 is highly certain. \"Regarding the transportation industry, Liu Youhua, research director of private equity ranking network, believes that \"the transportation industry is an unpopular industry in the market, with low capital hotspots and large differentiation of individual stocks. Fundamentally speaking, the improvement of domestic transportation infrastructure and The establishment of logistics system has improved efficiency. In terms of overseas shipping, profits have increased due to rising prices. In addition, the global epidemic has gradually been brought under control, the economy has begun to recover, residents' activities have begun to become normal, and transportation demand has increased significantly. \"2、Policy: It may be conducive to the strength of A-sharesZhongtai Macro believes that in the long run, interest rates are expected to fall, monetary policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the pace of fiscal expenditure will accelerate. Then, the stock market seems to be more optimistic.Interest rate policy or \"up before down\".Chen Xing, chief macro officer of Zhongtai, believes that interest rates may show a trend of \"first up and then down\" in the second half of the year. The risk of short-term interest rates going up is greater, and the downward trend will be smoother after adjustment. For the allocation of large-scale assets, the advantages of the bond market may be more prominent, and there are structural opportunities in the equity market, while the commodity market is dragged down by the downward price, and its performance is not as good as in the first half of the year.Whether from the perspective of economic growth or inflation, the domestic environment in the second half of the year is conducive to the downward trend of interest rates. First of all, the pressure of economic growth will gradually emerge. Since the epidemic, the two most prominent aspects of the global economic cycle are U.S. consumption and China's exports. The contribution of U.S. personal consumption expenditures to economic growth after the epidemic far exceeds that of private investment, net exports and government expenditures. Correspondingly, my country's high export boom. Of the 12 percentage points of China's export growth rate in the second half of last year, more than 4 percentage points were driven by exports to the United States.Secondly, from the perspective of inflation, the domestic situation in the second half of the year is much softer than that in the first half of the year. The peak and decline of the global epidemic and the domestic measures to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" have brought the logic of commodity pricing back to demand-led. The weak economic recovery trend means that the prices of most industrial products do not have the basis for continuous rise. In addition, the pressure on PPI growth rate caused by the base effect also tends to ease in the second half of the year, and the transmission efficiency of this round of PPI growth rate to CPI growth rate is also It is not high, and inflationary pressures have eased in the second half of the year.In the second half of the year, the finance may be relatively strong.Xu Chi, a strategist at Zhongtai, believes that the fiscal policy may be relatively strong in the second half of the year: when the government's fiscal bond issuance in the first half of the year was significantly lower than expected, the concentrated \"bidding, auction and listing\" of land supported the \"six guarantees\" of local governments in the first half of the year. It is expected that the pace of fiscal bond issuance may accelerate in the second half of the year, and it is difficult to further ease liquidity. It is expected that interest rates may be difficult to fall further in at least the third quarter.Compared with developed countries such as the United States, the tax contribution of the top 1% of the rich in China is obviously lower: the individual tax in the United States accounts for 55% of the total government tax revenue, the top 1% of households contribute 17% of the tax revenue, and the federal income tax paid accounts for 25%; However, China's individual tax accounts for only 7.2% of tax revenue, and the lack of \"asset tax\" related to the rich is the most important reason for this difference. Under the increasing pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the rich should assume more social responsibilities. It is expected that the pilot of real estate tax and the post-reforms of consumption tax collection may also be accelerated in the second half of the year, which may have a negative impact on mid-to-high-end liquor. The segmentation of luxury goods causes certain fluctuations.3、Keep an eye on opportunities in the big tech sectorAt present, it is the consensus of most securities firms and funds to add technology.Let's first look at the views of brokers:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The research report pointed out that the domestic economic stability period, the policy warm wind period, and the liquidity-friendly period are superimposed. The recovery period of overseas European and American economies, the period of loose liquidity, and the period of slowing down the spread of the epidemic coincide. Liquidity is mainly loose, \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\", and the global liquidity clock is still adding risky assets. Go long in the market without hesitation. The market is slowly unfolding and getting better from the layout of the \"centennial\" market to the \"summer market\" that is in full swing, scorching and shining brightly. At this stage, the growth direction of science and technology will become the main source of the beautiful landscape and excess returns of the \"summer market\".Chen Long, chief strategy officer of Zhongtai, believes that in terms of industry allocation, (1) focus on new energy and new energy vehicles, technology manufacturing (semiconductors, Hongmeng, consumer electronics), military industry, etc. with stable performance, accelerated profit adjustment, and high prosperity in the industry; The consumption sector pays more attention to new consumption. At the same time, be wary of the risk of decline in the interim performance of some machinery industries, light industries, and some food and beverage industries.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>It is recommended to continue to pay attention to three main lines: Main line 1: high prosperity, focusing on semiconductors, new energy vehicle industry chain, and coal, especially as the interim report market is about to open, focusing on the performance of high prosperity sectors. Main line 2: Repair the main line after the epidemic, focusing on the shipping and aviation sectors with rising prosperity. Main line 3: Low valuation main line, focusing on banks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>It is recommended to pay attention to small-cap growth with good immediate performance (sub-high-end liquor/computer/semiconductor), low PEG + price increase transmission + profit forecast increase (fertilizer/glass). The theme investment focuses on the improvement of prosperity and the marginal increase of policies under \"carbon neutrality\" (new energy vehicles/photovoltaics).The Guosheng Securities research report pointed out that there are three clues to \"nuggets\" the Science and Technology Innovation Board: 1. Open up a new direction for A-shares and benchmark against the scarce subdivided track \"unicorns\". 2. The performance growth rate has always led the \"high growth\" of science and technology innovation; 3. Since its listing, the pullback/retracement has been deep, has fallen below the issue price, and has a valuation and cost performance from the perspective of PEG; Petroleum, petrochemical and chemical, nonferrous metals, photovoltaic and other sectors benefit from overseas demand. Subdivided tracks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors & consumer electronics, AI, CXO services & medical beauty, and sub-high-end liquor with strong certainty of prosperity and expected high growth.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>The research report pointed out that with the resurgence of the wave of science and technology, there are seven major fields of science and technology worthy of attention. First, the semiconductor boom comes first; Second, 5G is the network, connecting everything; The third is the explosion of IoT, and the scope of data tentacles is getting larger and larger; Fourth, AI is overweight, bringing machines and humans one step closer; The fifth is the energy revolution, a major theme for mankind in the next 30 years; Sixth, unmanned driving, the next explosive scene of human-computer interaction; Seventh, virtual reality, let reality enter virtual reality.Look at Public Offering of Fund's point of view:For the second half of the year, Zhonggeng Fund gave three directions: First, the broad manufacturing industry: especially the middle and upper reaches of the manufacturing industry, which has the ability to sustain high growth, and the dual flexibility of fundamentals and valuation is relatively large; Second, pro-cyclical and banking/real estate/insurance in the middle and upper reaches: fundamentals and profit risks have been fully released, valuations are cheaper, there is the possibility of double-clicking performance and valuation, and overall risk compensation is high; The third is the growth-oriented industries: such as electronics, new materials, machinery and high-end manufacturing.Yinhua Fund suggests that in terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to allocate a balanced allocation. First, it is recommended to gradually reduce the cyclical allocation ratio, and allocate low-valuation industries such as banks, as well as midstream manufacturing industries such as automation and auto parts that benefit from the global economic recovery and export industry chain; Second, in the medium term, we are optimistic about the growth sub-sectors that benefit from the industry structure and the prosperity is still good, such as new energy vehicles, panels and military industries.Zheshang Fund recommends that investors continue to focus on technology stocks and military industry chain represented by semiconductor industry chain from a medium-term perspective, and continue to focus on automobile electrification, automobile software and hardware intelligent industry chain and new energy industry chain on dips. The long-term logic of carbon emission reduction, carbon neutrality and China's economic transformation will have a profound impact on China's industrial structure and industrial organizational structure. In the future, the price volatility of upstream raw material products will gradually decrease, the center of its price fluctuation may gradually increase, and the profitability of the industry will become more and more stable. The current valuation of cyclical industries is still at historically low levels, and investors are advised to focus on bargain hunting.Finally, let's look at the private equity perspective:Huaxia Future Capital will focus on two directions: First, benefiting from economic transformation, encouraging policy environment, and new energy vehicles with huge long-term space,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>, military industry, superior manufacturing and other industries. In the next few years, these industries will give birth to a number of leading companies with global competitiveness. The second is industries such as medical care, emerging consumer goods, and the Internet, which are closely related to residents' quality of life and income level. The demand of these industries has been growing rapidly for a long time, and the model has been innovating rapidly, and outstanding companies with high moats have been constantly born.Chengze Assets believes that we should insist on building and optimizing portfolios based on fundamentals, strive to obtain ideal net value growth on the premise of controlling pullback/retracement, and strictly implement stop loss discipline. New energy vehicle industry chain, advanced manufacturing, medical services and bio-innovative drugs, electronics and semiconductors, new consumer goods, etc. are the focus of current layout and research.Banyan Investment believes that it focuses on high-quality companies in the fields of new energy, new consumption, and new technology. Among them, the focus is on the new energy industry. The new energy track is one of the best tracks in the investment cycle of the next 5-10 years. The industry certainty is strong enough and the industry growth space is large enough.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to speculate in A-shares in the second half of the year? This sector is unanimously favored by institutions!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to speculate in A-shares in the second half of the year? This sector is unanimously favored by institutions!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n智通财经APP \n2021-06-28 11:09\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere are still 3 trading days left, and the first half of A-shares in 2021 is about to end. As of the close of trading on June 25, a total of 529 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had released performance forecasts for the first half of the year. Among them, the number of pre-happy companies reached 329 (including pre-increase, slight increase, loss turnaround, and continued profit), accounting for 62.19%. This ratio is higher than before.Regarding the market in the second half of the year, most institutions expressed optimism and suggested that investors pay attention to the big technology sector.1、Fundamentals: More than 60% of listed companies are happyaccording to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Straight flush</a>Statistics found that since June, 39 A-share listed companies have disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts for 2021. In addition to the companies that had previously predicted the interim report data in the first quarterly report and other announcements, as of the close of June 25, a total of 529 listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had released performance forecasts for the first half of the year. Among them, the number of pre-happy companies reached 329 (including pre-increase, slight increase, turnaround and continued profit), accounting for 62.19%. It is worth noting that pre-happy companies in the three industries of steel, mining and transportation account for the largest proportion of constituent stocks in the industry.At present, there are not many companies that have disclosed their semi-annual results for 2021, and 529 companies only account for about 13% of A-share listed companies. However, judging from the disclosed companies alone, 60% of listed companies have pre-happy mid-term reports, which should be said to be better than the A-share mid-term report seasons over the years.Previously, in 2019 and 2020, the pre-happiness ratio of listed companies was around 40% to 50%.Querying the historical data shows that:As of July 15, 2019, companies with mid-term pre-happy reports accounted for 52.66% of the total number announced;In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the proportion of companies with good interim reports is low. As of July 15, 2020, companies with good interim reports accounted for 52.66% of the total number that has been announced.Liu Youhua, research director of private placement network, believes that grasping the interim report market requires certain investment skills, such as intervening in advance, instead of waiting for the interim report performance forecast to come out, otherwise there will be certain chasing risks.Pre-happy companies in the three industries of steel, mining and transportation account for the highest proportion of constituent stocks in the industry.Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the performance of the steel industry in the first half of the year is expected to be relatively good, mainly benefiting from the economic recovery, because the base affected by the epidemic last year was relatively low. With the economic recovery, the demand for steel has gradually increased, so the performance of the steel industry is relatively good.\"Against the background of gradual economic recovery, the performance of the coal sector in the mining industry is expected to achieve a marginal substantial improvement.\" Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Sichuan Finance Securities, said, \"The core reason for the performance growth of the coal industry this year lies in the continuous rise of coal prices. Since the beginning of this year, global commodities have ushered in a new round of inflation cycle, and coal is one of the most typical representative products. The second half of the year will usher in the peak heating season, and changes in environmental protection policies will also have a direct impact at any time. Overall, the performance of the coal sector in 2021 is highly certain. \"Regarding the transportation industry, Liu Youhua, research director of private equity ranking network, believes that \"the transportation industry is an unpopular industry in the market, with low capital hotspots and large differentiation of individual stocks. Fundamentally speaking, the improvement of domestic transportation infrastructure and The establishment of logistics system has improved efficiency. In terms of overseas shipping, profits have increased due to rising prices. In addition, the global epidemic has gradually been brought under control, the economy has begun to recover, residents' activities have begun to become normal, and transportation demand has increased significantly. \"2、Policy: It may be conducive to the strength of A-sharesZhongtai Macro believes that in the long run, interest rates are expected to fall, monetary policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the pace of fiscal expenditure will accelerate. Then, the stock market seems to be more optimistic.Interest rate policy or \"up before down\".Chen Xing, chief macro officer of Zhongtai, believes that interest rates may show a trend of \"first up and then down\" in the second half of the year. The risk of short-term interest rates going up is greater, and the downward trend will be smoother after adjustment. For the allocation of large-scale assets, the advantages of the bond market may be more prominent, and there are structural opportunities in the equity market, while the commodity market is dragged down by the downward price, and its performance is not as good as in the first half of the year.Whether from the perspective of economic growth or inflation, the domestic environment in the second half of the year is conducive to the downward trend of interest rates. First of all, the pressure of economic growth will gradually emerge. Since the epidemic, the two most prominent aspects of the global economic cycle are U.S. consumption and China's exports. The contribution of U.S. personal consumption expenditures to economic growth after the epidemic far exceeds that of private investment, net exports and government expenditures. Correspondingly, my country's high export boom. Of the 12 percentage points of China's export growth rate in the second half of last year, more than 4 percentage points were driven by exports to the United States.Secondly, from the perspective of inflation, the domestic situation in the second half of the year is much softer than that in the first half of the year. The peak and decline of the global epidemic and the domestic measures to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" have brought the logic of commodity pricing back to demand-led. The weak economic recovery trend means that the prices of most industrial products do not have the basis for continuous rise. In addition, the pressure on PPI growth rate caused by the base effect also tends to ease in the second half of the year, and the transmission efficiency of this round of PPI growth rate to CPI growth rate is also It is not high, and inflationary pressures have eased in the second half of the year.In the second half of the year, the finance may be relatively strong.Xu Chi, a strategist at Zhongtai, believes that the fiscal policy may be relatively strong in the second half of the year: when the government's fiscal bond issuance in the first half of the year was significantly lower than expected, the concentrated \"bidding, auction and listing\" of land supported the \"six guarantees\" of local governments in the first half of the year. It is expected that the pace of fiscal bond issuance may accelerate in the second half of the year, and it is difficult to further ease liquidity. It is expected that interest rates may be difficult to fall further in at least the third quarter.Compared with developed countries such as the United States, the tax contribution of the top 1% of the rich in China is obviously lower: the individual tax in the United States accounts for 55% of the total government tax revenue, the top 1% of households contribute 17% of the tax revenue, and the federal income tax paid accounts for 25%; However, China's individual tax accounts for only 7.2% of tax revenue, and the lack of \"asset tax\" related to the rich is the most important reason for this difference. Under the increasing pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the rich should assume more social responsibilities. It is expected that the pilot of real estate tax and the post-reforms of consumption tax collection may also be accelerated in the second half of the year, which may have a negative impact on mid-to-high-end liquor. The segmentation of luxury goods causes certain fluctuations.3、Keep an eye on opportunities in the big tech sectorAt present, it is the consensus of most securities firms and funds to add technology.Let's first look at the views of brokers:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The research report pointed out that the domestic economic stability period, the policy warm wind period, and the liquidity-friendly period are superimposed. The recovery period of overseas European and American economies, the period of loose liquidity, and the period of slowing down the spread of the epidemic coincide. Liquidity is mainly loose, \"easy to loosen but difficult to tighten\", and the global liquidity clock is still adding risky assets. Go long in the market without hesitation. The market is slowly unfolding and getting better from the layout of the \"centennial\" market to the \"summer market\" that is in full swing, scorching and shining brightly. At this stage, the growth direction of science and technology will become the main source of the beautiful landscape and excess returns of the \"summer market\".Chen Long, chief strategy officer of Zhongtai, believes that in terms of industry allocation, (1) focus on new energy and new energy vehicles, technology manufacturing (semiconductors, Hongmeng, consumer electronics), military industry, etc. with stable performance, accelerated profit adjustment, and high prosperity in the industry; The consumption sector pays more attention to new consumption. At the same time, be wary of the risk of decline in the interim performance of some machinery industries, light industries, and some food and beverage industries.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>It is recommended to continue to pay attention to three main lines: Main line 1: high prosperity, focusing on semiconductors, new energy vehicle industry chain, and coal, especially as the interim report market is about to open, focusing on the performance of high prosperity sectors. Main line 2: Repair the main line after the epidemic, focusing on the shipping and aviation sectors with rising prosperity. Main line 3: Low valuation main line, focusing on banks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>It is recommended to pay attention to small-cap growth with good immediate performance (sub-high-end liquor/computer/semiconductor), low PEG + price increase transmission + profit forecast increase (fertilizer/glass). The theme investment focuses on the improvement of prosperity and the marginal increase of policies under \"carbon neutrality\" (new energy vehicles/photovoltaics).The Guosheng Securities research report pointed out that there are three clues to \"nuggets\" the Science and Technology Innovation Board: 1. Open up a new direction for A-shares and benchmark against the scarce subdivided track \"unicorns\". 2. The performance growth rate has always led the \"high growth\" of science and technology innovation; 3. Since its listing, the pullback/retracement has been deep, has fallen below the issue price, and has a valuation and cost performance from the perspective of PEG; Petroleum, petrochemical and chemical, nonferrous metals, photovoltaic and other sectors benefit from overseas demand. Subdivided tracks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors & consumer electronics, AI, CXO services & medical beauty, and sub-high-end liquor with strong certainty of prosperity and expected high growth.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>The research report pointed out that with the resurgence of the wave of science and technology, there are seven major fields of science and technology worthy of attention. First, the semiconductor boom comes first; Second, 5G is the network, connecting everything; The third is the explosion of IoT, and the scope of data tentacles is getting larger and larger; Fourth, AI is overweight, bringing machines and humans one step closer; The fifth is the energy revolution, a major theme for mankind in the next 30 years; Sixth, unmanned driving, the next explosive scene of human-computer interaction; Seventh, virtual reality, let reality enter virtual reality.Look at Public Offering of Fund's point of view:For the second half of the year, Zhonggeng Fund gave three directions: First, the broad manufacturing industry: especially the middle and upper reaches of the manufacturing industry, which has the ability to sustain high growth, and the dual flexibility of fundamentals and valuation is relatively large; Second, pro-cyclical and banking/real estate/insurance in the middle and upper reaches: fundamentals and profit risks have been fully released, valuations are cheaper, there is the possibility of double-clicking performance and valuation, and overall risk compensation is high; The third is the growth-oriented industries: such as electronics, new materials, machinery and high-end manufacturing.Yinhua Fund suggests that in terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to allocate a balanced allocation. First, it is recommended to gradually reduce the cyclical allocation ratio, and allocate low-valuation industries such as banks, as well as midstream manufacturing industries such as automation and auto parts that benefit from the global economic recovery and export industry chain; Second, in the medium term, we are optimistic about the growth sub-sectors that benefit from the industry structure and the prosperity is still good, such as new energy vehicles, panels and military industries.Zheshang Fund recommends that investors continue to focus on technology stocks and military industry chain represented by semiconductor industry chain from a medium-term perspective, and continue to focus on automobile electrification, automobile software and hardware intelligent industry chain and new energy industry chain on dips. The long-term logic of carbon emission reduction, carbon neutrality and China's economic transformation will have a profound impact on China's industrial structure and industrial organizational structure. In the future, the price volatility of upstream raw material products will gradually decrease, the center of its price fluctuation may gradually increase, and the profitability of the industry will become more and more stable. The current valuation of cyclical industries is still at historically low levels, and investors are advised to focus on bargain hunting.Finally, let's look at the private equity perspective:Huaxia Future Capital will focus on two directions: First, benefiting from economic transformation, encouraging policy environment, and new energy vehicles with huge long-term space,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>, military industry, superior manufacturing and other industries. In the next few years, these industries will give birth to a number of leading companies with global competitiveness. The second is industries such as medical care, emerging consumer goods, and the Internet, which are closely related to residents' quality of life and income level. The demand of these industries has been growing rapidly for a long time, and the model has been innovating rapidly, and outstanding companies with high moats have been constantly born.Chengze Assets believes that we should insist on building and optimizing portfolios based on fundamentals, strive to obtain ideal net value growth on the premise of controlling pullback/retracement, and strictly implement stop loss discipline. New energy vehicle industry chain, advanced manufacturing, medical services and bio-innovative drugs, electronics and semiconductors, new consumer goods, etc. are the focus of current layout and research.Banyan Investment believes that it focuses on high-quality companies in the fields of new energy, new consumption, and new technology. Among them, the focus is on the new energy industry. The new energy track is one of the best tracks in the investment cycle of the next 5-10 years. The industry certainty is strong enough and the industry growth space is large enough.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199186422","content_text":"还有3个交易日，A股2021年上半年即将收官。截至6月25日收盘，沪深两市共有529家上市公司发布上半年业绩预告，其中，预喜公司数量达329家（含预增、略增、扭亏、续盈），占比62.19%。这一比例高于以往。\n对于下半年行情，多数机构表示乐观，并建议投资者关注大科技板块。\n1、基本面：超六成上市公司预喜\n根据同花顺数据统计发现，6月份以来，A股上市公司中已有39家披露了2021年半年度业绩预告。加上此前在一季报等公告中对中报数据作出预测的公司，截至6月25日收盘，沪深两市共有529家上市公司发布上半年业绩预告，其中，预喜公司数量达329家（含预增、略增、扭亏、续盈），占比62.19%。值得关注的是，钢铁、采掘和交通运输等三行业预喜公司占行业内成份股比例居前。\n目前已经披露2021年半年度业绩的公司不算多，529家只占A股上市公司的13％左右。不过，仅从已披露公司看，六成上市公司中报预喜，跟A股历年中报季相比，应该说比较好。\n此前的2019年、2020年，上市公司预喜比例都在四五成左右。\n查询历史数据可知：\n截至2019年7月15日的数据，中报预喜公司占已经公布总数的52.66%；\n2020年则是受疫情影响，中报预喜公司比例偏低，截至2020年7月15日的数据，中报预喜公司占已经公布总数的52.66%。\n私募排排网研究主管刘有华认为，中报行情的把握，需要一定的投资技巧，比如一定要提前介入，而不是等中报业绩预告出来之后才介入，否则会有一定的追高风险。\n钢铁、采掘和交通运输等三行业预喜公司占行业内成份股比例居前。\n前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为，钢铁行业上半年业绩预计比较好，主要受益于经济的复苏，因为去年受疫情影响基数相对较低，随着经济的复苏，钢铁的需求量也逐渐上升，所以钢铁行业的业绩比较好。\n“在经济逐步复苏的背景下，采掘行业的细分领域煤炭板块业绩有望实现边际大幅改善。”川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳表示，“煤炭行业今年以来业绩增长的最核心原因，还是在于煤炭价格的不断抬升。今年以来，全球大宗商品迎来新一轮通胀周期，而煤炭是最典型的代表产品之一，叠加环保、进出口等因素影响，煤价上涨明显，尤其是冶金焦的价格。下半年将迎来取暖旺季，环保政策的变动也将随时产生直接影响，整体来看，煤炭板块的2021年业绩确定性较强。”\n对于交通运输行业，私募排排网研究主管刘有华则认为，“交通运输行业属于市场的冷门行业，资金热点并不高，而且个股分化较大。从基本面来讲，国内交通基础设施的改善，以及物流体系的建立，效率都有所提高。海外航运方面，由于价格上涨，利润随之增长。另外，全球疫情逐渐得到控制，经济开始恢复，居民活动开始趋向正常，交通运输需求有明显提升。”\n2、政策面：或有利于A股走强\n中泰宏观认为，从长期看，利率有望下行，下半年货币政策将维持稳定，财政支出节奏加快，那么，股市似乎也应该更乐观些。\n利率政策或“先上后下”。\n中泰宏观首席陈兴认为，下半年利率或将呈现“先上后下”的走势，短期利率上行的风险更大，而待调整后下行趋势更为顺畅。对于大类资产配置而言，债市优势或较为突出，权益市场存在结构性机会，而商品市场受价格下行拖累，表现不如上半年。\n不论是从经济增长还是通胀的角度来看，下半年国内环境都有利于利率水平的下行。首先，经济增长的压力将逐渐显现。疫情以来，全球经济循环最为突出的两个方面就是美国的消费和中国的出口，美国个人消费支出疫情过后的经济增长中贡献远远超过私人投资，净出口和政府支出，与之对应的就是我国出口的高景气。而我国去年下半年出口增速12个百分点之中，超过4个百分点都是对美出口所拉动。\n其次，从通胀来看，国内下半年的态势要比上半年缓和很多。全球疫情见顶回落以及国内“保供稳价”的举措使得大宗商品定价逻辑重回需求主导。而偏弱的经济恢复态势意味着大多数工业品价格不具备持续上涨的基础，加上基数效应给PPI增速造成的压力下半年也趋于缓解，本轮PPI增速向CPI增速传导效率也并不高，下半年通胀压力有所减轻。\n下半年财政或将相对发力。\n中泰策略分析师徐驰认为，下半年财政或将相对发力：上半年政府财政发债明显低于预期下，土地集中“招拍挂”支撑了上半年地方政府的“六保”，预计下半年财政发债节奏或将提速，在流动性难以进一步宽松下，预计至少在三季度，利率或较难进一步下行。\n与美国等发达国家相比，我国前1%的富人的税收贡献明显偏低：美国个税占政府税收总收入55%，前1%的家庭贡献税收收入占比17%，交纳联邦所得税占比却达25%；而我国个税占税收收入比重仅为7.2%，与富人相关的“资产税”的缺乏是造成这一差异的最重要原因。在财政收支压力越来越大下，富人理应承担更多社会责任，预计房地产税的试点以及消费税征收环节后置等改革，在下半年亦或提速，这或将对中高端白酒等奢侈品细分造成一定的波动。\n3、关注大科技板块的机会\n目前看，加配科技是大部分券商、基金的共识。\n我们先看券商观点：\n兴业证券研报指出，国内经济平稳期、政策暖风期、流动性友好期，三期叠加。海外欧美经济恢复期、流动性宽松期、疫情扩散放缓期，三期重合。流动性以宽松为主，“易松难紧”，全球流动性时钟仍在加配风险资产。市场做多，毫不犹豫。市场正从“百周年”行情的布局、徐徐展开、渐入佳境，进入到热火朝天、骄阳似火、艳阳高照的“夏日行情”。在这一个阶段中，科技成长方向将成为“夏日行情”靓丽风景线和超额收益的主要来源。\n中泰策略首席陈龙认为，在行业配置方面，（1）重点关注业绩稳健，盈利加速上调，行业维持高景气的新能源及新能源汽车、科技制造（半导体、鸿蒙、消费电子）、军工等；消费领域更加关注新消费。同时警惕部分机械行业、轻工、部分食品饮料中报业绩的下滑风险。\n华安证券建议持续关注三条主线：主线1：高景气，关注半导体、新能源车产业链、煤炭，尤其是随着中报行情即将开启，重点关注高景气板块的业绩表现。主线2：疫后修复主线，关注景气度上行的航运和航空板块。主线3：低估值主线，重点关注银行。\n广发证券建议关注即期业绩好的小盘成长（次高端白酒/计算机/半导体），低PEG+涨价传导+盈利预测上调（化肥/玻璃）。主题投资关注“碳中和”下景气度改善及政策边际增量（新能源车/光伏）。\n国盛证券研报指出，三条线索“掘金”科创板：1、开拓A股新方向，对标稀缺的细分赛道“独角兽”的。2、业绩增速一直领跑科创的“高成长”；3、上市以来回撤较深，已跌破发行价、从PEG等角度具备估值性价比的；受益海外需求拉动的石油石化及化工、有色、光伏等板块。景气的确定性较强、有望高增长的新能源汽车、半导体&消费电子、AI、CXO服务&医美以及次高端白酒等细分赛道。\n西南证券研报指出，随着科技浪潮的再次来袭，有七大科技领域值得关注。一是半导体景气先行；二是5G为网，连接万物；三是IoT爆发，数据触手范围越来越大；四是AI加码，机器和人再近一步；五是能源革命，未来30年人类的重大主题；六是无人驾驶，下一个人机交互的爆点场景；七是虚拟现实，让现实走进虚拟。\n再看公募基金观点：\n对于下半年，中庚基金给出了三个方向：一是广义制造业：尤其是偏中上游的制造业，具有持续较高成长能力，基本面与估值双重弹性较大；二是中上游顺周期和银行/地产/保险：基本面及盈利风险已较充分释放，估值较便宜，存在业绩和估值双击的可能，整体风险补偿较高；三是偏成长的行业：如电子、新材料、机械及高端制造等。\n银华基金建议，在行业配置上，建议均衡配置，一是建议逐步降低周期配置比例，配置银行等低估值行业以及自动化、汽车零部件等受益于全球经济复苏、出口产业链的偏中游制造类行业；二是中期看好受益于行业格局以及景气度仍较好的成长类子行业，如新能车、面板及军工等行业。\n浙商基金建议投资者从中期的角度继续逢低重点关注以半导体产业链为代表的科技股和军工产业链，继续逢低重点关注汽车电动化及汽车软硬件智能化产业链和新能源产业链。碳减排、碳中和与中国经济转型的长期逻辑将会对中国的产业结构和产业的组织结构产生深远的影响。未来上游原材料产品价格的波动性将会逐步减少，其价格波动的中枢有可能逐步抬高，行业的盈利能力也越来越稳定。周期性行业当前的估值依然在历史的低位，建议投资者逢低重点关注。\n最后我们来看私募观点：\n华夏未来资本将重点聚焦于两个方向：一是受益于经济转型，政策环境鼓励，具备巨大长期空间的新能源车、太阳能、军工、优势制造等行业，未来几年这些行业将诞生出一批具备全球竞争力的头部企业。二是与居民生活质量和收入水平密切相关的医疗保健、新兴消费品、互联网等行业，这些行业需求长期较快增长，模式快速创新，不断诞生出具备很高护城河的优秀公司。\n承泽资产认为，坚持实施基于基本面构建和优化组合，在控制好回撤的前提下努力获取理想的净值增长，严格执行止损纪律。新能源车产业链、先进制造业、医疗服务和生物创新药、电子和半导体、新消费品类等是目前布局和研究的重点。\n榕树投资认为，把关注点放在新能源、新消费、新技术领域的优质公司。其中重点看好新能源行业，新能源赛道是未来5-10年投资周期中最好的赛道之一，行业确定性足够强，行业增长空间足够大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2032,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}