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东方波澜
2021-05-26

Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?

摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”，并作发言时表示，美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来，带来长期结构性通胀，给“俏也不争春”的中国经济

Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":136529430,"tweetId":"136529430","gmtCreate":1622030056720,"gmtModify":1704178123079,"author":{"id":3570426589852260,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorId":3570426589852260,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>hi</body></html>","text":"hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136529430","repostId":1113676067,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113676067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622028675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113676067?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 19:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113676067","media":"中国财富管理50...","summary":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”，并作发言时表示，美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来，带来长期结构性通胀，给“俏也不争春”的中国经济","content":"Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.Core Points➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. AndThe final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlightChina's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.The following is a transcript of the speech:American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical InflationWhen China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comebackFirst, the policy is extremely strong.After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":One isOld infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;The second isNew infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;Third,Green Energy;The fourth isIt's education and training.At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.Long-term inflation makes a structural comebackMany researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".First, trade globalization.At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.Second, technology platformization.In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..Third, income distribution should be enterprised.This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United StatesAt present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recoversIn terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?One isChina has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.The second isThe recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slowIn terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term dangerPolicy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stableAt present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:One isSystemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,The second isMacro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,Third,It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talentMany regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.","source":"lsy1586655104126","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n中国财富管理50...2021-05-26 19:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nXing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.Core Points➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. AndThe final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlightChina's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.The following is a transcript of the speech:American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical InflationWhen China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comebackFirst, the policy is extremely strong.After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":One isOld infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;The second isNew infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;Third,Green Energy;The fourth isIt's education and training.At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.Long-term inflation makes a structural comebackMany researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".First, trade globalization.At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.Second, technology platformization.In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..Third, income distribution should be enterprised.This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United StatesAt present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recoversIn terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?One isChina has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.The second isThe recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slowIn terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term dangerPolicy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stableAt present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:One isSystemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,The second isMacro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,Third,It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talentMany regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg\">中国财富管理50...</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113676067","content_text":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”，并作发言时表示，美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来，带来长期结构性通胀，给“俏也不争春”的中国经济复苏带来外部挑战。当前，中国制造业投资复苏夯实“中国制造”吸引力，但对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚未完全恢复，中国的通胀并无长期之虞。\n邢自强表示，中国稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前政策就可实现，下一步须保持稳健，把握政策节奏。今年监管“风暴”本质在于着眼长远，固本培元，最终目的是搭建新监管框架，降低系统性风险。尤其是此次监管焦点在科技巨头，实际上引领了全球经济治理新思潮。未来，监管政策将更预见性、更为透明，更注重政策沟通，从而减少给市场带来不确定性的扰动。\n核心要点\n➢第一，通胀三部曲奏响：大宗商品价格上涨是美国高压经济学对全球外溢效应的首部曲。第二章乃是美国经济过热带来劳动力成本与通胀预期的螺旋上升。而通胀卷土重来的最终章，或是3T逆转（逆全球化、逆平台巨头化、收入分配公平化）推动菲利普斯曲线重新陡峭，长期通胀回升。\n➢第二，应对全球通胀，中国短期内可引导减少大宗商品炒作，确保供给稳定预期。中长期，中国本轮政策率先回归常态，稳步退出刺激、防范资产泡沫、监管“风暴”敢于“啃骨头”，与发达国家竭泽焚薮的宽松刺激对比鲜明，“中国经济治理”为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供了基石。\n➢第三，尽管方向正确，决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通去减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动。更透明的政策变动程序，能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心，稳定市场信心，更有助于在逆全球化的趋势下，缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读，从而夯实进一步人民币国际化的基础。\n以下为发言实录：\n美国“高压经济学”与周期性通胀\n中国在发达经济体继续加码刺激力度时，率先恢复了常态化政策，聚焦稳住杠杆，管理债务风险，改善经济的长期可持续性，这是一个比较理性的选择，可谓是“俏也不争春”。但外部挑战可能才刚刚开始。\n笔者从去年下半年开始，认为全球将面临通胀的卷土重来，特别是美国。目前美国经济面临比较大的变局，不只是拜登刺激引发的短期过热，更有长期通胀叠加逆全球化思潮带来的政策“左拐”，更加关注公平分配，这会导致长期通胀卷土重来，这对中国也有极大影响。\n美国正在打造的“高压经济学”，其目标不仅是追求GDP增速恢复到疫情前的轨迹，而是要实现收入的公平化，实现中低收入群体、工人阶级的最大化就业。在这一过程中，美国可以纵容甚至主动寻求经济增长的超调，不达目的不松“油门”，希望带动劳动力市场出现紧张和工资上涨。在这一过程中，刺激政策的超量显而易见。然而天下没有免费的午餐，“高压经济学”的副作用之一就是通货膨胀。如果美国经济过热，核心通胀率很有可能在今年底上探到2.5%。\n美国通胀卷土重来的三个动因\n第一，政策力度极大。在推出1.9万亿美元纾困计划后，美国还在加码刺激政策，很可能下半年再通过接近2万亿美元的基建刺激计划。这份计划共有“四大支柱”：一是老基建，如修路架桥等，但这部分仅占方案的1/3；二是新基建，比如电讯、宽带产业；三是绿色能源；四是是教育和培训。\n目前来看，“四大支柱”方案大概率会在10月份正式通过，用预算协调的方式加以实现。关于这一投资计划的效果，从过去几十年美国公共项目的投资情况来看，基本上一半的资金在第一、二年就会被拨款使用。基建计划将成为美国经济复苏的又一剂“强心针”，刺激力度会进一步加大。\n第二，疫苗推广极快。目前美国疫苗推广很快，潜在消费需求有望在夏天重新释放。今夏美国酒店、机票预定已爆满，不亚于中国的“五一”长假。\n第三，消费者“余粮”极多。美国消费者的财富本轮调整没有伤筋动骨，相反，经历了疫情期间数轮财政扶助，美国居民账户上目前有高达2万亿美元的多余储蓄。在这种情况下，只要疫苗到位、生活习惯恢复，2万亿美元的消费能力有望爆发性释放。\n在三大因素的推动下，今年美国经济肯定会出现过热，周期性通胀压力会明显抬升。且美国没有急于退出本轮刺激政策，没有像2009年一样，在失业率维持在10%高点时退出财政政策，在失业率7%时退出货币政策。今年上半年美国经济增速可能会高达9.6%，下半年还会维持在7%的水平，远超过潜在增速。\n货币方面，明年美国经济环比增速可能将接近5%，也是过热的表现。从劳动力市场看，目前美国雇佣成本指数已同比上升2.7%，而生产率难以同步上涨，因此通货膨胀大概率会卷土重来，预计美国核心PCE通胀可能在未来几个月达到2.6%。\n目前，市场普遍认为美联储不会收紧货币政策，所以无须担心通胀上扬，这也是美联储反复给大家吃“定心丸”的结果。但如果通胀超预期出现，不排除美联储最终被迫年底就开始“缩表”，加息也提早。\n长期通胀结构性卷土重来\n不少研究人士主要聚焦于美国本轮刺激是否会大幅推高大宗商品价格、对中国的PPI物价产生成本冲击、进而影响中国的经济和货币政策。这个方向当然值得关注，但它只是本轮通胀大周期的首部曲而已，甚至可能不是下阶段全球和美国通胀的主要来源。\n美国通胀是否上涨，下一步主要看点是其经济思潮左拐、超量刺激，最终能否带动劳动力市场的紧张。目前来看，美国长期、结构性通胀将卷土重来的风险不小：过去20年，美国也采取了一些刺激措施，但最终通胀都没有上涨。但过去20年抑制通胀的三股主导力量正在被逆转。这三股力量分别是贸易全球化、科技平台化、收入分配企业化。我将其总结为“3T”。\n第一，贸易全球化。目前各国都在反思贸易链布局，发达国家5G、半导体、医疗设备等领域的产业链成本可能会上升，全球化趋势正在被逆转。\n第二，科技平台化。过去20年，全球都在纵容和鼓励平台企业、互联网企业发展，认为他们的研发和创新提高了生产率、抑制了物价水平。但“赢家通吃”局面导致贫富差距不断加大，也引发了各国对潜在风险的担忧，重新反思对科技平台公司的监管态度，开始从反垄断、数字税、数字使用监管等问题着手干预。\n第三，收入分配企业化。本轮美国的刺激方案中明确提出要调节收入分配。80年代里根政府实施的小政府、去监管、低税率、拥抱全球化等政策，导致贫富差距不断加大，资本家和企业分得的“蛋糕”越来越多。拜登经济学代表了对小政府角色的纠偏，希望通过给企业加税、提高资本利得税、加强对中低收入群体的转移支付、甚至提高联邦最低工资等措施调节收入分配。\n这三个因素使得美国本轮不仅是“昙花一现”的周期性通胀，而是长期、可持续的结构性通胀。\n中国通胀压力远小于美国\n目前，中国的经济复苏并不均衡，增长主要依靠制造业和出口驱动，国内消费复苏依然较为缓慢。\n外需方面，工业部门增速已超过潜在增速5个百分点，不仅填平了疫情造成的“坑”，而且呈现超潜在增长态势，但这并不能长期持续。疫情期间，其他国家生产链断裂，供给不足，所以中国出口份额不断上升。但未来三、四季度，预计出口会缓慢回归。因为各国生产能力逐渐恢复，消费模式也逐步回归正常，会进行正常的服务消费，而不是在家里网购来自中国的电子产品了。\n这一轮疫情期间，中国出口表现的长期意义在于，中国制造业的韧性通过了考验。去年全球经济由于新冠肺炎疫情冲击而停滞，“已是悬崖百丈冰”，而中国“独有花枝俏”率先复苏，也确保了全球生产供应链的安全港。\n而当前，各大新兴市场由于新冠病毒变种的再次扩散、疫情再次告急，全球供应的复苏重新面临挑战，因而出口订单继续转移至最为稳定可靠的中国供应链。制造业产能利用率已攀升至历史最高位、企业长期贷款的需求稳健复苏、工业机器人、机床设备的进口需求旺盛，这些指标均指向中国制造业投资的复苏。\n鉴于中外在新冠肺炎疫情下的表现对比，夯实了“中国制造”的吸引力，今年的制造业投资增速有望回升，超越疫情前的投资轨迹。\n\n图1：制造业投资信心复苏\n内需方面，目前中国消费增速比疫情前的潜在增速水平至少低2~3个百分点。中美在消费方面的差异非常明显。为什么中国消费恢复缓慢？一是中国并没有采取西方经济体那种直接的转移支付措施，如发支票。二是就业市场的恢复情况未达预期。通过对就业数据进行追踪，线下零售、娱乐、个人护理等消费领域还有很多隐性失业，在线平台招聘增速也仅仅恢复了不到一半。\n因此，对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚没有完全恢复。预计三、四季度以后，若疫情得到稳步控制，消费的全面恢复才能实现。\n\n图2：消费恢复相对缓慢\n通胀方面，中美之间也存在较大的差距。美国“高压经济学”是不达目的不罢休，无论是周期性通胀、还是长期通胀，可能卷土重来。而中国大宗商品和原材料价格的上涨则主要来自于企业利润的短期承压，它对整体通胀的传导是比较有限的，对货币政策的影响也相对较小。\n近期大宗商品价格过快上涨引发了市场担忧，不可否认，原材料价格上涨将会在短期挤压下游企业利润，特别是部分企业因需要完成在手订单无法及时提价，从而必须承受所有的成本压力，甚至赔本赚吆喝。作为政策应对，中国通过加强引导来减少大宗商品期货炒作，还可通过调整钢、铝、煤炭等行业的减产节奏来提升国内供给。\n但总体而言，这一轮大宗商品价格通胀很大程度上源于全球因素：发达国家政策超量刺激，带动了需求，而供给侧瓶颈仍然掣肘，国外一些主要大宗商品出口国因疫情等原因未能完全恢复其产能。\n但中国面临的通胀压力，特别是核心消费物价的压力是可控的，毕竟中国的商品和服务的供给复苏最为迅速，快于国内需求，需求侧则尚处于缓慢按部就班回升轨迹。这与海外发达国家供给侧远远没有恢复、但需求已率先领跑的供需失衡相比，中国自身的通胀压力有限，预计CPI会温和回升但不会过热，PPI同比增速将于5、6月份触顶到8%之上，之后在下半年步入缓慢下行通道。\n\n图3：中国的通胀并无长期之虞\n政策退出已经实现 下一步保持稳健\n当前已出台的金融监管政策已经基本可以达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标，下一步须把握节奏。\n从去年中央经济工作会到今年的政治局会议之间，多数政策方向比较明确，具体来看，除了财政政策逐步回归常态，减少赤字以外，金融监管和宏观审慎政策主要有三方面：一是系统重要性金融机构要逐渐扩容，提高对部分银行资本充足率的要求、二是对房地产“三道红线”、贷款集中度的宏观审慎要求，三是要加强对地方融资平台发债的监管。\n这些政策基本足够达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标。测算显示，到今年三季度，社会融资总量增速将从去年底的13.5%回落到11.5%、甚至11%。而预计今年名义GDP增速预计在11%以上，社融和名义GDP增速将基本吻合，所以稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前的政策就可以实现。\n监管“风暴”：穿透现象看本质，固本培元\n今年开始的诸多监管“风暴”本质上是着眼长远，固本培元。包括金融科技强监管，平台企业反垄断，和碳达峰行动，似乎让市场有些措手不及，但它们符合过去几年中国树立的经济治理新机制的方向：堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险，避免金融危机，改善社会问题。\n事实上，近期的监管新举措已是过去六年来第四轮的监管“风暴”。此前三轮分别是2016到2018年的对产能过剩行业的供给侧改革、化解金融风险攻坚战，和环保治理。它们应运而生的宏观背景是，中国经济在2008年后的结构性失衡不断累积，人口红利逐步消散。衡量长期增长可持续性的全要素生产率增速逐年走低，部分行业的监管框架在长年高增长后未能与时俱进。\n因此，自2015年以来的上述数轮监管“风暴”，最终目的是搭建新的监管框架，堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险。虽然在短期内对市场信心产生了一些担忧，股票等市场资产价格当时有所调整；但是，强监管的“短痛”最终给中国经济带来显著的长期利益：过去数轮监管风暴，最终都提升了中国金融体系的稳健性，使整个宏观杠杆率企稳、债务风险降低、且没有持续挤压私人部门活力，全要素生产率依然保持了平稳。\n譬如，资本外流趋缓后，人民币国际化已经在扩大金融开放、深化国内改革、以及拓展人民币的使用范围的三支柱体系下重新起航；中国金融体系因影子银行清理变得更有韧性，守住了不发生系统性金融风险的底线；而2018年针对互联网、医药、游戏、教育等行业的历轮监管。最终并未抑制其后续的良性发展。\n最近对科技平台企业的监管同样反映了政策层对“短痛”和长远利益的权衡。全球范围内，决策者和研究者都在思考，大型科技平台迅速上升的垄断地位可能已经挤压了中小企业的生存空间，加剧了贫富和劳动者保护等社会问题，并可能在长期或许会抑制创新、威胁金融稳定。因此，此次中国监管的焦点在科技巨头，实际上是引领了全球经济治理的新思潮。\n当然，在这一过程前后，决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动，进一步增加政策可预见性。一个更为透明的政策环境不仅更能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心，稳定市场信心，更有助于在逆全球化的思潮下，缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读，从而使得中国有望为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供基石，进一步夯实人民币国际化的基础。\n下一步，要注意新政策的节奏。因为一旦进一步收紧监管政策，社融会更大幅度地下跌，则容易超调，对私人部门信心产生影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3646,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}