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2021-07-09

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Preview of Q2 financial report of aviation stocks: With the increase of transportation capacity, is the spring of aviation stocks coming?

虽然疫情最糟糕的时候已经过去，但航空公司的业绩尚未完全恢复。一季度财报显示，美国四大航空公司的业绩都不太好，不过，随着疫苗有序接种和航空公司提升运力，二季度业绩表现或将好于一季度。值得注意的是，原油

Preview of Q2 financial report of aviation stocks: With the increase of transportation capacity, is the spring of aviation stocks coming?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":141098355,"tweetId":"141098355","gmtCreate":1625822391277,"gmtModify":1703749262323,"author":{"id":3577886602905532,"idStr":"3577886602905532","authorId":3577886602905532,"authorIdStr":"3577886602905532","name":"胡拉拉","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>i.oooookk.っっっlっlう</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>i.oooookk.っっっlっlう</body></html>","text":"i.oooookk.っっっlっlう","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141098355","repostId":1189205572,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189205572","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625819143,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189205572?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 16:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Preview of Q2 financial report of aviation stocks: With the increase of transportation capacity, is the spring of aviation stocks coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189205572","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"虽然疫情最糟糕的时候已经过去，但航空公司的业绩尚未完全恢复。一季度财报显示，美国四大航空公司的业绩都不太好，不过，随着疫苗有序接种和航空公司提升运力，二季度业绩表现或将好于一季度。\n值得注意的是，原油","content":"While the worst of the pandemic is behind us, airline performance has yet to fully recover. The financial report for the first quarter shows that the performance of the four major airlines in the United States is not very good. However, with the orderly vaccination of vaccines and the increase of airlines' capacity, the performance in the second quarter may be better than that in the first quarter.It is worth noting that crude oil prices soared by 24% throughout the second quarter. However, the fuel costs of the four major airlines did not change significantly compared with Q1 in 2021. However, because crude oil prices were at a low level in the second quarter of last year, except for Delta Air Lines In addition, the fuel costs of the remaining three airlines increased significantly year-on-year, which may become the main factor dragging down performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>The financial report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens on July 14.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>The financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on July 20.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>The financial report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens on July 22.First Quarter Results ReviewIn the first quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The performance of the stocks is not satisfactory. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>Performance miss the market expectation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>And American Airlines had mixed results, with revenue missing expectations, but net profit exceeding market expectations.Even with such a performance, there are salary assistance and the company's voluntary resignation and vacation plans behind it to improve the performance of airlines. For example, Southwest Airlines had a net profit of 116 million yuan in the first quarter according to GAAP, which became a net loss of 1.015 billion yuan after adjustment. The main influencing factor was the US $1.448 billion related to the Federal Reserve's salary relief and staff resignation and vacation.For another example, Delta Air Lines' net loss in the first quarter was US $11.77, which became a net loss of US $2.256 billion after adjustment. The most important factor was the recognition of government subsidies of US $1.186 billion. Delta Air Lines expects the remaining $847 million in grant funding to be confirmed in Q2.What factors deserve attention in the second quarter1. Airlines welcome capacity improvementWith the expansion of vaccination scope and the gradual control of the epidemic, consumers have begun to travel more, aviation demand has gradually picked up, and industry conditions have picked up.An obvious sign of improvement is the increase in airline capacity.Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have obviously improved their capacity. Wherein,Southwest AirlinesIn the first quarterly report, it was stated that Q2 transportation capacity is expected to increase by 90% compared with last year, but it has not yet returned to 2019 levels.It is about 15% lower than the same period in 2019.AndAmerican AirlinesIt is expected that Q2 2021Capacity fell 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019.(Note: ASMs: Available Seat Miles, which is the main measure of airline capacity.)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7412e094d2d4ea1730df9f05ab328\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Southwest Airlines expects Q2 capacity situationDelta Air Lines and United Continental have slower capacity recovery. Delta Airlines expects,Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; United Continental:United Continental Airlines estimates that Q2 2021Capacity decreased by about 45% compared to Q2 2019.Another sign of improvement is attendance.Among them, Southwest Airlines expects that Q2 passenger revenue and attendance rate will also increase. It is expected that the year-on-year decline in passenger revenue in April and May will narrow to 40%-45%, compared with the previous expected year-on-year decline of 45%-55%; The attendance rate in April and May is expected to increase from the previous 70%-75% to 75%-80%.2. Rising fuel costs may be the main factor dragging down Q2 performanceSecondly, it is worth paying attention to the impact of rising oil prices on airline performance. Since the second quarter, crude oil prices have continued to rise. Throughout the second quarter (opening on April 1 to closing on June 30), WTI crude oil futures rose by about 24%. How will rising oil prices affect airlines? Take Southwest Airlines as an example for your reference.Southwest's operating cost per seat per mile is 8 cents, with fuel costs of 2.02 cents, which is about 25% of total operating costs. Previously, Southwest Airlines expected fuel costs in the second quarter to be between US $1.85 and US $1.95, compared with US $1.87 in the first quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter change range of-1% to +4%, with little overall change.(Note: Fuel cost is based on the price per gallon, the same below)However, compared with the fuel cost of US $1.33 in Q2 2020, it was a year-on-year increase of 39%-47%. In other words, fuel costs alone will probably increase the company's operating costs by 9.75%-11.75% (compared with Q2 2020), which is likely to be the main factor dragging down Southwest Airlines' Q2 performance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b04d3389441cbd33f25bf1de0ef696\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The situation is similar for United Continental and American Airlines.According to the above method, it can be calculated that the fuel cost of United Continental Airlines in Q2 2021 will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 10.2%, and the figure of American Airlines is 6.6%. The derivation steps are placed at the end of the article for your reference.However,Delta Air Lines is quite special. The company expects Q2 fuel costs to drop year-on-year, and the overall second-quarter performance will not be greatly affected.Delta Air Lines expects fuel costs in Q2 to be between US $1.85 and US $1.95, compared with US $1.91 in Q1, with a quarter-on-quarter change range of-3% to 2%, with little quarter-on-quarter fluctuation. However, Delta Air Lines' Q2 fuel cost is lower than that of Q2 2.16 in 2020. Q2 may not be greatly affected by fuel costs. Coupled with the confirmation of the US $847 million government subsidy mentioned earlier, the performance may exceed market expectations, but the recovery of capacity Weaker is a hidden danger.(Note: Fuel costs are all adjusted prices)How do some airlines view Q2 performance?<ul><li>Southwest Airlines:Southwest Airlines predicts that Q2 capacity in 2021 will decrease by approximately 15% compared with the same period in 2019, and April revenue in Q2 will decrease by 40%-45% compared with the same period in 2019; Revenue in May decreased by 35%-40% compared with the same period in 2019.</li><li>Delta Airlines:Delta Airlines expects,Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; Revenue is between US $5.64 billion and US $6.27 billion, compared with Q2 2019US $12.54 billion,It slipped by about 50%-55%. Market reservations decreased by approximately 32% as compared to the same period in 2019.</li><li>United Continental:United Continental Airlines estimates that Q2 2021Capacity decreased by about 45% compared to Q2 2019;Revenue in Q2 2021 will be approximately US $9.12 billion, a decrease of approximately 20% from US $11.402 billion in Q2 2019; Adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 20%.</li><li>American Airlines:American Airlines expects that in Q2 2021Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019;ExpectedQ2 revenue was approximately US $7.176 billion, compared with Q2 2019US $11.96 billion,About 40% drop； Excluding special items, netPre-tax margins ranged from minus 27% to minus 30%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42a2e057f7e315aabe455694aa844e\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Delta Air Lines Q2 GuidanceHow does Bloomberg see airline Q2 performance?<ul><li>Southwest Airlines:Bloomberg predicts that Southwest Airlines' Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $3.86 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $260 million, and an adjusted loss per share of US $0.38;</li><li>Delta Airlines:Bloomberg predicts that Delta Air Lines' Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $6.34 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $920 million, and an adjusted loss per share of US $1.44;</li><li>United Continental:Bloomberg predicts that United Continental's Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $5.25 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $1.39 billion, and an adjusted loss per share of US $4.26.</li><li>American Airlines:Bloomberg predicts that American Airlines' Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $7.17 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $1.54 billion, and an adjusted loss per share of US $2.4.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c0d0095fc9503e98050caea447e3c3\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Southwest Airlines<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7e31093b314cca20e4a9a8db4390b1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Delta Air Lines<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374b03072582302bc7fc66d22e8e0170\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">United Continental<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36c4a94d52620e95b4d78efa6242f560\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">American AirlinesAttachment 1: Details of the first quarter results of the four major U.S. airlines<ul><li>Southwest Airlines:In the first quarter of 2021, Southwest Airlines' revenue was US $2.052 billion, market expectations were US $2.057 billion, and US $4.234 billion in the same period last year; The net profit in Q1 2021 was US $116 million, and the market expected a net loss of US $734 million, compared with a net loss of US $94 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share in Q1 2021 were US $0.19, the market expected a loss of US $1.2, and a loss of US $0.18 in the same period last year.</li><li>Delta Air Lines: First quarter results fell short of expectations.In the first quarter of 2021, Delta Air Lines' revenue was US $4.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52%, and miss the market expectation's revenue was US $3.983 billion, compared with US $8.592 billion in the same period last year. The net loss in the first quarter was US $1.177 billion, compared with a loss of US $534 million in the same period last year; The adjusted net loss in the first quarter was US $2.256 billion, compared with US $326 million in the same period last year; The adjusted loss per share in the first quarter was US $3.55, compared with market expectations for a loss of US $3.17 per share.</li><li>United Continental:United Continental's revenue and GAAP EPS missed expectations, and non-GAAP EPS beat consensus. Q1 revenue in 2021 will be US $3.221 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 59.6% from US $7.979 billion in Q1 2020; The net loss was US $1.357 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4% compared with the loss of US $1.704 billion in Q2 2020; The loss per share was US $4.29, a year-on-year decrease of 37.5% from the loss per share of US $6.86 in Q2 2020.</li><li>American Airlines:American Airlines' revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was US $4.008 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9% from US $8.515 billion in Q1 of 2020; The net loss was US $1.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 44.2% from the loss of US $2.241 billion in Q1 2020; The loss per share was $1.97, compared with the loss per share of $5.26 in Q1 2020.</li></ul>Attachment 2: Derivation of the impact of United Continental and American aviation fuel costs on total costs<ul><li>United Continental projects fuel costs for Q2It was US $1.83, an increase of 5% from US $1.74 in the first quarter. Compared to $1.18 in Q2 2020,A year-on-year increase of 55%.Meanwhile, United Continental's operating costs per seat per mile in the first quarter were 15.15 cents, including fuel costs of 2.8 cents,Bunker costs accounted for approximately 18.5% of total operating costs. In other words, fuel costs in the second quarter will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 10.2%.</li><li>First quarterAmerican AirlinesOperating costs per seat per mile were 14.09 cents, including 1.7 cents for fuel,Bunker costs as a percentage of total operating costs were approximately 12.1%. However,American Airlines did not predict the fuel cost of Q2. Judging from the data of other airlines, the ratio between Q1 and Q2 has not changed much. We might as well assume that Q2 and Q1 are the same as US $1.7, which is a year-on-year increase of approximately 54.6% compared with US $1.1 in Q2 of 2020.%, same as above,In the second quarter, U.S. aviation fuel costs will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 6.6%.</li></ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview of Q2 financial report of aviation stocks: With the increase of transportation capacity, is the spring of aviation stocks coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview of Q2 financial report of aviation stocks: With the increase of transportation capacity, is the spring of aviation stocks coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n老虎资讯综合 \n2021-07-09 16:25\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhile the worst of the pandemic is behind us, airline performance has yet to fully recover. The financial report for the first quarter shows that the performance of the four major airlines in the United States is not very good. However, with the orderly vaccination of vaccines and the increase of airlines' capacity, the performance in the second quarter may be better than that in the first quarter.It is worth noting that crude oil prices soared by 24% throughout the second quarter. However, the fuel costs of the four major airlines did not change significantly compared with Q1 in 2021. However, because crude oil prices were at a low level in the second quarter of last year, except for Delta Air Lines In addition, the fuel costs of the remaining three airlines increased significantly year-on-year, which may become the main factor dragging down performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>The financial report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens on July 14.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>The financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on July 20.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>The financial report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens on July 22.First Quarter Results ReviewIn the first quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The performance of the stocks is not satisfactory. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>Performance miss the market expectation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>And American Airlines had mixed results, with revenue missing expectations, but net profit exceeding market expectations.Even with such a performance, there are salary assistance and the company's voluntary resignation and vacation plans behind it to improve the performance of airlines. For example, Southwest Airlines had a net profit of 116 million yuan in the first quarter according to GAAP, which became a net loss of 1.015 billion yuan after adjustment. The main influencing factor was the US $1.448 billion related to the Federal Reserve's salary relief and staff resignation and vacation.For another example, Delta Air Lines' net loss in the first quarter was US $11.77, which became a net loss of US $2.256 billion after adjustment. The most important factor was the recognition of government subsidies of US $1.186 billion. Delta Air Lines expects the remaining $847 million in grant funding to be confirmed in Q2.What factors deserve attention in the second quarter1. Airlines welcome capacity improvementWith the expansion of vaccination scope and the gradual control of the epidemic, consumers have begun to travel more, aviation demand has gradually picked up, and industry conditions have picked up.An obvious sign of improvement is the increase in airline capacity.Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have obviously improved their capacity. Wherein,Southwest AirlinesIn the first quarterly report, it was stated that Q2 transportation capacity is expected to increase by 90% compared with last year, but it has not yet returned to 2019 levels.It is about 15% lower than the same period in 2019.AndAmerican AirlinesIt is expected that Q2 2021Capacity fell 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019.(Note: ASMs: Available Seat Miles, which is the main measure of airline capacity.)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7412e094d2d4ea1730df9f05ab328\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Southwest Airlines expects Q2 capacity situationDelta Air Lines and United Continental have slower capacity recovery. Delta Airlines expects,Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; United Continental:United Continental Airlines estimates that Q2 2021Capacity decreased by about 45% compared to Q2 2019.Another sign of improvement is attendance.Among them, Southwest Airlines expects that Q2 passenger revenue and attendance rate will also increase. It is expected that the year-on-year decline in passenger revenue in April and May will narrow to 40%-45%, compared with the previous expected year-on-year decline of 45%-55%; The attendance rate in April and May is expected to increase from the previous 70%-75% to 75%-80%.2. Rising fuel costs may be the main factor dragging down Q2 performanceSecondly, it is worth paying attention to the impact of rising oil prices on airline performance. Since the second quarter, crude oil prices have continued to rise. Throughout the second quarter (opening on April 1 to closing on June 30), WTI crude oil futures rose by about 24%. How will rising oil prices affect airlines? Take Southwest Airlines as an example for your reference.Southwest's operating cost per seat per mile is 8 cents, with fuel costs of 2.02 cents, which is about 25% of total operating costs. Previously, Southwest Airlines expected fuel costs in the second quarter to be between US $1.85 and US $1.95, compared with US $1.87 in the first quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter change range of-1% to +4%, with little overall change.(Note: Fuel cost is based on the price per gallon, the same below)However, compared with the fuel cost of US $1.33 in Q2 2020, it was a year-on-year increase of 39%-47%. In other words, fuel costs alone will probably increase the company's operating costs by 9.75%-11.75% (compared with Q2 2020), which is likely to be the main factor dragging down Southwest Airlines' Q2 performance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b04d3389441cbd33f25bf1de0ef696\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The situation is similar for United Continental and American Airlines.According to the above method, it can be calculated that the fuel cost of United Continental Airlines in Q2 2021 will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 10.2%, and the figure of American Airlines is 6.6%. The derivation steps are placed at the end of the article for your reference.However,Delta Air Lines is quite special. The company expects Q2 fuel costs to drop year-on-year, and the overall second-quarter performance will not be greatly affected.Delta Air Lines expects fuel costs in Q2 to be between US $1.85 and US $1.95, compared with US $1.91 in Q1, with a quarter-on-quarter change range of-3% to 2%, with little quarter-on-quarter fluctuation. However, Delta Air Lines' Q2 fuel cost is lower than that of Q2 2.16 in 2020. Q2 may not be greatly affected by fuel costs. Coupled with the confirmation of the US $847 million government subsidy mentioned earlier, the performance may exceed market expectations, but the recovery of capacity Weaker is a hidden danger.(Note: Fuel costs are all adjusted prices)How do some airlines view Q2 performance?<ul><li>Southwest Airlines:Southwest Airlines predicts that Q2 capacity in 2021 will decrease by approximately 15% compared with the same period in 2019, and April revenue in Q2 will decrease by 40%-45% compared with the same period in 2019; Revenue in May decreased by 35%-40% compared with the same period in 2019.</li><li>Delta Airlines:Delta Airlines expects,Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; Revenue is between US $5.64 billion and US $6.27 billion, compared with Q2 2019US $12.54 billion,It slipped by about 50%-55%. Market reservations decreased by approximately 32% as compared to the same period in 2019.</li><li>United Continental:United Continental Airlines estimates that Q2 2021Capacity decreased by about 45% compared to Q2 2019;Revenue in Q2 2021 will be approximately US $9.12 billion, a decrease of approximately 20% from US $11.402 billion in Q2 2019; Adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 20%.</li><li>American Airlines:American Airlines expects that in Q2 2021Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019;ExpectedQ2 revenue was approximately US $7.176 billion, compared with Q2 2019US $11.96 billion,About 40% drop； Excluding special items, netPre-tax margins ranged from minus 27% to minus 30%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42a2e057f7e315aabe455694aa844e\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Delta Air Lines Q2 GuidanceHow does Bloomberg see airline Q2 performance?<ul><li>Southwest Airlines:Bloomberg predicts that Southwest Airlines' Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $3.86 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $260 million, and an adjusted loss per share of US $0.38;</li><li>Delta Airlines:Bloomberg predicts that Delta Air Lines' Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $6.34 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $920 million, and an adjusted loss per share of US $1.44;</li><li>United Continental:Bloomberg predicts that United Continental's Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $5.25 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $1.39 billion, and an adjusted loss per share of US $4.26.</li><li>American Airlines:Bloomberg predicts that American Airlines' Q2 revenue in 2021 will be US $7.17 billion, an adjusted net loss of US $1.54 billion, and an adjusted loss per share of US $2.4.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c0d0095fc9503e98050caea447e3c3\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Southwest Airlines<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7e31093b314cca20e4a9a8db4390b1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Delta Air Lines<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374b03072582302bc7fc66d22e8e0170\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">United Continental<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36c4a94d52620e95b4d78efa6242f560\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">American AirlinesAttachment 1: Details of the first quarter results of the four major U.S. airlines<ul><li>Southwest Airlines:In the first quarter of 2021, Southwest Airlines' revenue was US $2.052 billion, market expectations were US $2.057 billion, and US $4.234 billion in the same period last year; The net profit in Q1 2021 was US $116 million, and the market expected a net loss of US $734 million, compared with a net loss of US $94 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share in Q1 2021 were US $0.19, the market expected a loss of US $1.2, and a loss of US $0.18 in the same period last year.</li><li>Delta Air Lines: First quarter results fell short of expectations.In the first quarter of 2021, Delta Air Lines' revenue was US $4.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52%, and miss the market expectation's revenue was US $3.983 billion, compared with US $8.592 billion in the same period last year. The net loss in the first quarter was US $1.177 billion, compared with a loss of US $534 million in the same period last year; The adjusted net loss in the first quarter was US $2.256 billion, compared with US $326 million in the same period last year; The adjusted loss per share in the first quarter was US $3.55, compared with market expectations for a loss of US $3.17 per share.</li><li>United Continental:United Continental's revenue and GAAP EPS missed expectations, and non-GAAP EPS beat consensus. Q1 revenue in 2021 will be US $3.221 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 59.6% from US $7.979 billion in Q1 2020; The net loss was US $1.357 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4% compared with the loss of US $1.704 billion in Q2 2020; The loss per share was US $4.29, a year-on-year decrease of 37.5% from the loss per share of US $6.86 in Q2 2020.</li><li>American Airlines:American Airlines' revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was US $4.008 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9% from US $8.515 billion in Q1 of 2020; The net loss was US $1.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 44.2% from the loss of US $2.241 billion in Q1 2020; The loss per share was $1.97, compared with the loss per share of $5.26 in Q1 2020.</li></ul>Attachment 2: Derivation of the impact of United Continental and American aviation fuel costs on total costs<ul><li>United Continental projects fuel costs for Q2It was US $1.83, an increase of 5% from US $1.74 in the first quarter. Compared to $1.18 in Q2 2020,A year-on-year increase of 55%.Meanwhile, United Continental's operating costs per seat per mile in the first quarter were 15.15 cents, including fuel costs of 2.8 cents,Bunker costs accounted for approximately 18.5% of total operating costs. In other words, fuel costs in the second quarter will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 10.2%.</li><li>First quarterAmerican AirlinesOperating costs per seat per mile were 14.09 cents, including 1.7 cents for fuel,Bunker costs as a percentage of total operating costs were approximately 12.1%. However,American Airlines did not predict the fuel cost of Q2. Judging from the data of other airlines, the ratio between Q1 and Q2 has not changed much. We might as well assume that Q2 and Q1 are the same as US $1.7, which is a year-on-year increase of approximately 54.6% compared with US $1.1 in Q2 of 2020.%, same as above,In the second quarter, U.S. aviation fuel costs will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 6.6%.</li></ul>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411c6ea7e969aee81c7c240d3341abef","relate_stocks":{"AAL":"美国航空","DAL":"达美航空","UAL":"联合大陆航空","LUV":"西南航空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189205572","content_text":"虽然疫情最糟糕的时候已经过去，但航空公司的业绩尚未完全恢复。一季度财报显示，美国四大航空公司的业绩都不太好，不过，随着疫苗有序接种和航空公司提升运力，二季度业绩表现或将好于一季度。\n值得注意的是，原油价格在整个二季度飙升24%，不过四大航空公司的燃油成本看，较2021年Q1环比变化并不明显，但因为原油价格在去年二季度处于低位，除达美航空外，其余三家航空公司燃油成本同比上升明显，或将成为拖累业绩的主要因素。\n达美航空将于7月14日美股盘前发布财报，联合大陆航空将于7月20日美股盘后发布财报，美国航空和西南航空将于7月22日美股盘前发布财报。\n一季度业绩回顾\n一季度，美国航空股的业绩表现均不太理想。其中，达美航空和联合大陆航空的业绩不及市场预期。西南航空和美国航空业绩喜忧参半，营收不及预期，但净利润超出市场预期。\n即便是这样一份业绩，背后还有薪资救助和公司自愿离职和休假计划在提升航空公司业绩表现。比如西南航空，按照GAAP一季度净利润1.16亿元，调整后变成净亏损10.15亿元，其中主要的影响因素就是与美联储薪资救助和员工组员离职和休假相关的14.48亿美元。\n再比如，达美航空一季度净亏损11.77美元，而调整后变成净亏损22.56亿美元，其中最主要的因素也是确认了11.86亿美元的政府补助。达美航空预计，剩余8.47亿美元的补助资金将在Q2确认。\n二季度哪些因素值得关注\n1、航空公司喜迎运力提升\n随着疫苗接种范围扩大以及疫情逐渐控制，消费者开始增加出行，航空需求逐步回升，行业状况回暖，一个明显好转的信号是，航空公司运力的提升。\n运力提升明显的是西南航空和美国航空。其中，西南航空在一季报中表示，预计Q2运力较去年提升90%，但仍未恢复至2019年水平，比2019年同期低约15%。而美国航空预计2021年Q2的运力较2019年Q2下降 20%至 25%。（注：ASMs：可用座位里程，是衡量航空公司运力的主要指标。）\n西南航空预计Q2运力情况\n达美航空和联合大陆航空运力恢复较慢。达美航空预计，Q2运力较2019年同期下降约40%；联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年Q2下降约45%。\n另一个好转的信号是上座率。其中，西南航空预计，Q2乘客收入和上座率也将提升，预计4月5月乘客收入同比降幅收窄至40%-45%，此前预计同比下滑45%-55%；预计4月5月的上座率将由此前的70%-75%提升至75%-80%。\n2、燃油成本上升，或是拖累Q2业绩的主要因素\n其次，值得关注的是油价上涨对航空公司业绩的影响。二季度以来，原油价格持续走高，整个二季度（4月1日开盘至6月30日收盘），WTI原油期货涨约24%。油价上涨对航空公司影响几何？在此以西南航空为例，给大家做参考。\n西南航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为8美分，其中燃油成本为2.02美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为25%。此前，西南航空预计二季度燃油成本在1.85美元至1.95美元之间，较一季度的1.87美元，环比变动区间为-1%到+4%，总体变化不大。（注：燃油成本采用每加仑价格，下同）\n但与2020年Q2 1.33美元的燃油成本相比，同比上升39%-47%。换句话说，仅燃油成本一项，大概会将公司的运营成本拉高9.75%-11.75%（较2020年Q2），很可能是拖累西南航空Q2业绩的主要因素。\n\n联合大陆航空和美国航空的情况也类似。按照上述方法，可以计算，2021年Q2联合大陆航空的燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约10.2%，美国航空这一数字是6.6%，推导步骤放在了文末，供大家查阅。\n不过，达美航空比较特殊，公司预计Q2燃油成本同比惊现下滑，整体二季度业绩受影响不大。\n达美航空预计Q2的燃油成本在1.85美元-1.95美元之间，较Q1的1.91美元，环比变动区间在-3%到2%，环比波动不大。不过，达美航空Q2燃油成本较2020年Q2 2.16的成本是下降的，可能Q2受燃油成本影响不大，叠加前面提及的8.47亿美元政府补助的确认，或许业绩能超出市场预期，不过运力恢复较弱是一个隐患。（注：燃料成本均为调整后价格）\n部分航空公司如何看Q2业绩？\n\n西南航空：西南航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年同期下降约15%，Q2中的4月营收较2019年同期减少40%-45%；5月营收较2019年同期减少35%-40%。\n达美航空：达美航空预计，Q2运力较2019年同期下降约40%；营收在56.4亿美元-62.7亿美元之间，较2019年Q2的125.4亿美元，下滑约50%-55%。市场预定量较2019年同期下降约32%。\n联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年Q2下降约45%；2021年Q2营收约为91.2亿美元，较2019年Q2的114.02亿美元下降约20%；调整后EBITDA利润率为负的20%。\n美国航空：美国航空预计，2021年Q2的运力较2019年Q2下降 20%至 25%；预计Q2营收约为71.76亿美元，较2019年Q2的119.6亿美元，下降约40%；不包括特殊项目净额的税前利润率在负27%至负30%之间。\n\n达美航空二季度业绩指引\n\n彭博社如何看航空公司Q2业绩？\n\n西南航空：彭博社预计，西南航空2021年Q2营收38.6亿美元，调整后净亏损2.6亿美元，调整后每股亏损0.38美元；\n达美航空：彭博社预计，达美航空2021年Q2营收63.4亿美元，调整后净亏损9.2亿美元，调整后每股亏损1.44美元；\n联合大陆航空：彭博社预计，联合大陆航空2021年Q2营收52.5亿美元，调整后净亏损13.9亿美元，调整后每股亏损4.26美元。\n美国航空：彭博社预计，美国航空2021年Q2营收71.7亿美元，调整后净亏损15.4亿美元，调整后每股亏损2.4美元。\n\n西南航空\n达美航空\n联合大陆航空\n美国航空\n附1：美国四大航空公司一季度业绩明细\n\n西南航空：2021年一季度，西南航空营收20.52亿美元，市场预期20.57亿美元，去年同期42.34亿美元；2021年Q1净利润1.16亿美元，市场预期净亏损7.34亿美元，去年同期净亏损0.94亿美元；2021年Q1每股盈利0.19美元，市场预期亏损1.2美元，去年同期亏损0.18美元。\n达美航空：一季度业绩不及预期。2021年一季度，达美航空营收41.5亿美元，同比下滑52%且不及市场预期的39.83亿美元，去年同期85.92亿美元。一季度净亏损11.77亿美元，去年同期亏损5.34亿美元；一季度调整后净亏损22.56亿美元，去年同期为3.26亿美元；一季度调整后每股亏损3.55美元，市场预期每股亏损3.17美元。\n联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空营收和GAAP每股收益不及预期，非GAAP每股收益超出市场预期。2021年Q1营收32.21亿美元，较2020年Q1的79.79亿美元，同比下降59.6%；净亏损13.57亿美元，较2020年Q2的亏损17.04亿美元，同比收窄20.4%；每股亏损4.29美元，较2020年Q2的每股亏损6.86美元，同比收窄37.5%。\n美国航空：美国航空2021年一季度营收40.08亿美元，较2020年Q1的85.15亿美元，同比下降52.9%；净亏损12.50亿美元，较2020年Q1亏损的22.41亿美元，同比收窄44.2%；每股亏损1.97美元，较2020年Q1每股亏损5.26美元。\n\n附2：联合大陆航空和美国航空燃油成本对总成本的影响推导\n\n联合大陆航空预计Q2的燃料成本为1.83美元，较一季度1.74美元，环比增加5%。与2020年Q2的1.18美元相比，同比增加55%。与此同时，一季度联合大陆航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为15.15美分，其中燃油成本为2.8美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为18.5%。也就是说，二季度燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约10.2%。\n一季度美国航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为14.09美分，其中燃油成本为1.7美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为12.1%。不过，美国航空并未预测Q2的燃油成本，从其他航空的数据看，Q1与Q2比变化不大，我们不妨假设Q2与Q1相同为1.7美元，与2020年Q2的1.1美元相比，同比上升约54.6%，同上，二季度美国航空燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约6.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LUV":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"UAL":0.9,"AAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}