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2021-07-12

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"Buy every earnings season" may fail! U.S. stock outlook encounters 4 hidden worries and traps

美国股市的财报季在本周拉开序幕，将由摩根大通等银行股率先起跑。尽管美股三大指数都在上周末前创新高，而且上市企业获利预计将增长60%，但投资者目前更聚焦于4大隐忧陷阱，分别是企业获利增长攀峰、经济增长可

"Buy every earnings season" may fail! U.S. stock outlook encounters 4 hidden worries and traps

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新加坡的大螃蟹
·2021-07-12
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U.S. stock outlook encounters 4 hidden worries and traps","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150658399","media":"FX168","summary":"美国股市的财报季在本周拉开序幕，将由摩根大通等银行股率先起跑。尽管美股三大指数都在上周末前创新高，而且上市企业获利预计将增长60%，但投资者目前更聚焦于4大隐忧陷阱，分别是企业获利增长攀峰、经济增长可","content":"<p>The earnings season for U.S. stocks kicks off this week and will be led by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Wait for bank stocks to take the lead. Although the three major U.S. stock indexes all hit new highs before last weekend, and the profits of listed companies are expected to increase by 60%, investors are currently more focused on four major hidden worry traps, namely, the peak of corporate profit growth, the possible slowdown of economic growth, and variants. Virus strains are rampant and the Federal Reserve tends to reduce the scale of easing. Since last year, the iron law of buying every earnings season may fail, and investment institutions have begun to increase the proportion of cash.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The last quarter's financial report will be announced on the 13th, symbolizing the start of the US stock earnings season. According to Fact Set data, analysts predict that the profits of S&P 500 companies in the second quarter of this year will surge 64% compared with the same period last year, the highest in more than a decade. With U.S. stock prices already high and consumer prices rising simultaneously, investors will pay attention to executives' views on profit prospects and profits, and how to solve the current shortage of jobs.</p><p>Let's first take a look at what Bloomberg Intelligence pointed out. During the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, U.S. stock investors are winners as long as they buy when the earnings season comes. Earlier, in the six weeks after the earnings season began, the S&P 500 index rose by an average of 4.6%. However, analysts mentioned that the economic expansion cycle has reached its peak, which may also lead to the peak of corporate profit growth. Therefore, investors are worried that the 15-month policy bull market may be discouraged. Historical experience shows that when corporate profits reach their peak, the stock market will also perform poorly.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's semi-annual report on the U.S. economy submitted to Congress shows that shortages of some raw materials and labor shortages are hindering a strong economic rebound this year and prompting temporary inflation. The report also mentioned that progress in vaccination has led to economic recovery and strong growth, but the shortage of raw material inputs and labor continues to inhibit the restart of many commercial activities.</p><p>The report also revealed the signals of Fed officials' next decisions on recent economic development. Since March 2020, when COVID-19 pandemic set off a wave in the United States, the Federal Reserve has consistently set interest rates near zero. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it expects interest rates to remain unchanged at that level until it is determined that inflation can remain within the 2% target and the labor market returns to so-called \"full employment\".</p><p>According to the report released by the Federal Reserve, the process of U.S. economic recovery is likely to face obstacles in the coming months, and transient inflation will remain the focus of investors' attention. Economic growth may slow down, and the most obvious signal of the weakening of the economy is that the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States has continued to decline in recent weeks, prompting bank stocks to lose their original appeal, and growth stocks such as technology stocks are expected to be welcome again.</p><p>After the end of the second quarter financial report, analysts expect that the profit growth of enterprises will slow down in the next three quarters, and it is expected that the profit growth rate will not reach 5% early next year. Given that the policy support of the US government will weaken, and last year's low base period effect will also come to an end.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. stock strategist, said that the current average price-to-earnings ratio of U.S. stocks has reached the highest point since the dot-com bubble, and its ability to withstand negative news is very weak. Coupled with the preparations of U.S. President Biden's administration to raise corporate tax rates, and rising wages and raw material costs, the impact on corporate net profits is not small.</p><p>In a statement in May, the U.S. Treasury Department mentioned that it would cooperate with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Group of Twenty (G20) to propose a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% at the meeting of international tax negotiations to end the competition to attract companies through minimum tax rates, because this competition will ultimately erode government revenues. This proposal brings the position of the United States closer to the minimum tax rate of 12.5% discussed by the OECD before the United States re-entered the negotiations.</p><p>Tobias Levkovich added that the current U.S. stock market is too complacent, and many investors believe that the stock market will smoothly shift from policy to performance, but this is still uncertain. Lower corporate profits, rising inflation concerns, the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve, government tax increases and many other negative news will continue to follow.</p><p>Investors will also keep an eye on the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in June, which is expected to be released on July 14, and is expected to rise by 5% annually. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also attend the hearing on the same day to release the first-half report on monetary policy, and his speech on inflation and economic outlook will also be a driving factor.</p><p>Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, mentioned that the S&P 500 index is rising far faster than the growth rate of corporate earnings. Since the beginning of this year, the index has risen by nearly 16%, while the estimated profit growth rate of enterprises this year and next year is 14% respectively. and 10%. He believes that the surplus in 2022 needs to increase by 14%, reducing the estimated price-to-earnings ratio to 18 times, so that U.S. stocks can be considered reasonable.</p><p>In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has been hit by a new wave of variant strains, especially the Delta variant strain originally discovered in India. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Control (CDC) said that it has listed the Delta variant as the main virus in the United States, accounting for more than 50% of confirmed cases. American pharmaceutical companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer) and its German partner BioNTech announced that they plan to apply to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for authorization to vaccinate an additional third dose of vaccine in August, saying that the third dose of vaccine within 12 months can greatly improve immunity, and It can also help to fight the highly infectious Indian Delta variant strain.</p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Buy every earnings season\" may fail! 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U.S. stock outlook encounters 4 hidden worries and traps\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The earnings season for U.S. stocks kicks off this week and will be led by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Wait for bank stocks to take the lead. Although the three major U.S. stock indexes all hit new highs before last weekend, and the profits of listed companies are expected to increase by 60%, investors are currently more focused on four major hidden worry traps, namely, the peak of corporate profit growth, the possible slowdown of economic growth, and variants. Virus strains are rampant and the Federal Reserve tends to reduce the scale of easing. Since last year, the iron law of buying every earnings season may fail, and investment institutions have begun to increase the proportion of cash.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The last quarter's financial report will be announced on the 13th, symbolizing the start of the US stock earnings season. According to Fact Set data, analysts predict that the profits of S&P 500 companies in the second quarter of this year will surge 64% compared with the same period last year, the highest in more than a decade. With U.S. stock prices already high and consumer prices rising simultaneously, investors will pay attention to executives' views on profit prospects and profits, and how to solve the current shortage of jobs.</p><p>Let's first take a look at what Bloomberg Intelligence pointed out. During the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, U.S. stock investors are winners as long as they buy when the earnings season comes. Earlier, in the six weeks after the earnings season began, the S&P 500 index rose by an average of 4.6%. However, analysts mentioned that the economic expansion cycle has reached its peak, which may also lead to the peak of corporate profit growth. Therefore, investors are worried that the 15-month policy bull market may be discouraged. Historical experience shows that when corporate profits reach their peak, the stock market will also perform poorly.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's semi-annual report on the U.S. economy submitted to Congress shows that shortages of some raw materials and labor shortages are hindering a strong economic rebound this year and prompting temporary inflation. The report also mentioned that progress in vaccination has led to economic recovery and strong growth, but the shortage of raw material inputs and labor continues to inhibit the restart of many commercial activities.</p><p>The report also revealed the signals of Fed officials' next decisions on recent economic development. Since March 2020, when COVID-19 pandemic set off a wave in the United States, the Federal Reserve has consistently set interest rates near zero. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it expects interest rates to remain unchanged at that level until it is determined that inflation can remain within the 2% target and the labor market returns to so-called \"full employment\".</p><p>According to the report released by the Federal Reserve, the process of U.S. economic recovery is likely to face obstacles in the coming months, and transient inflation will remain the focus of investors' attention. Economic growth may slow down, and the most obvious signal of the weakening of the economy is that the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States has continued to decline in recent weeks, prompting bank stocks to lose their original appeal, and growth stocks such as technology stocks are expected to be welcome again.</p><p>After the end of the second quarter financial report, analysts expect that the profit growth of enterprises will slow down in the next three quarters, and it is expected that the profit growth rate will not reach 5% early next year. Given that the policy support of the US government will weaken, and last year's low base period effect will also come to an end.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. stock strategist, said that the current average price-to-earnings ratio of U.S. stocks has reached the highest point since the dot-com bubble, and its ability to withstand negative news is very weak. Coupled with the preparations of U.S. President Biden's administration to raise corporate tax rates, and rising wages and raw material costs, the impact on corporate net profits is not small.</p><p>In a statement in May, the U.S. Treasury Department mentioned that it would cooperate with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Group of Twenty (G20) to propose a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% at the meeting of international tax negotiations to end the competition to attract companies through minimum tax rates, because this competition will ultimately erode government revenues. This proposal brings the position of the United States closer to the minimum tax rate of 12.5% discussed by the OECD before the United States re-entered the negotiations.</p><p>Tobias Levkovich added that the current U.S. stock market is too complacent, and many investors believe that the stock market will smoothly shift from policy to performance, but this is still uncertain. Lower corporate profits, rising inflation concerns, the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve, government tax increases and many other negative news will continue to follow.</p><p>Investors will also keep an eye on the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in June, which is expected to be released on July 14, and is expected to rise by 5% annually. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also attend the hearing on the same day to release the first-half report on monetary policy, and his speech on inflation and economic outlook will also be a driving factor.</p><p>Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, mentioned that the S&P 500 index is rising far faster than the growth rate of corporate earnings. Since the beginning of this year, the index has risen by nearly 16%, while the estimated profit growth rate of enterprises this year and next year is 14% respectively. and 10%. He believes that the surplus in 2022 needs to increase by 14%, reducing the estimated price-to-earnings ratio to 18 times, so that U.S. stocks can be considered reasonable.</p><p>In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has been hit by a new wave of variant strains, especially the Delta variant strain originally discovered in India. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Control (CDC) said that it has listed the Delta variant as the main virus in the United States, accounting for more than 50% of confirmed cases. American pharmaceutical companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer) and its German partner BioNTech announced that they plan to apply to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for authorization to vaccinate an additional third dose of vaccine in August, saying that the third dose of vaccine within 12 months can greatly improve immunity, and It can also help to fight the highly infectious Indian Delta variant strain.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/usstock/2107/5185033.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0da219c302a7bbcc8785c7a4851f3ad7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/usstock/2107/5185033.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150658399","content_text":"美国股市的财报季在本周拉开序幕，将由摩根大通等银行股率先起跑。尽管美股三大指数都在上周末前创新高，而且上市企业获利预计将增长60%，但投资者目前更聚焦于4大隐忧陷阱，分别是企业获利增长攀峰、经济增长可能减缓、变种毒株肆虐和美联储倾向缩减宽松规模。去年以来每逢财报季就买进的操作铁律恐怕将失灵，投资机构已经开始提高现金比重。\n摩根大通与高盛将在13日公布上季财报，象征着美股财报季的启动。根据Fact Set数据显示，分析师预测标准普尔500指数成分企业，在今年第二季的获利将比去年同期激增64%，是10多年以来的最高纪录。在美股价格已高、消费者物价也同步走扬的情况下，投资者将关注主管对获利前景和利润的看法，以及如何解决目前缺工的问题。\n先来看看彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)所指，在新冠肺炎疫情期间，美股投资者只要在财报季来临时买进都是赢家。早前在财报季开始后的6周内，标准普尔500指数平均上涨幅度达到4.6%。但分析师提到，经济扩张周期已经到顶，连带可能使得企业获利增长攀升高峰。投资者因此担忧，历经15个月的政策大牛市将可能泄气。历史经验显示，在企业获利增长到顶峰时，股市表现也将欠佳。\n美联储向国会呈交的美国经济半年报告中显示出，部分原物料短缺和缺工问题，正阻碍着今年强劲的经济反弹，并促使暂时性通胀出现。报告还提到，疫苗接种方面的进展已经使得经济复苏且强劲增长，但原物料投入短缺和缺工，持续抑制着许多商业活动的重新启动。\n报告也透露，美联储官员接下来对近期经济发展决策的信号。自2020年3月新冠疫情在美国掀起浪潮以来，美联储持续将利率定在接近于零的水平。美联储曾表明，在确定通胀率能维持在2%的目标内，劳动力市场恢复至所谓“充分就业”之前，预计利率都将维持在该水平不变。\n根据美联储所发布的报告反映出，美国经济复苏的进程有可能在未来几个月内面临障碍，短暂性通胀问题仍然会是投资者关注的焦点。经济增长可能放缓，而景气转弱的最明显信号，就是近几周美国10年期国债收益率持续下降，促使银行股失去其原有的吸引力，科技股等成长型股票预计将再次获得欢迎。\n在第二季财报结束后，分析师预计未来三季企业获利增长都将减缓，预计明年初时获利增长率将无法达到5%，鉴于美国政府的政策支持力道将减弱，而且去年的低基期效应也将宣告结束。\n花旗首席美股策略师Tobias Levkovich表示，目前美股平均本益比达到网络泡沫以来的最高点，对利空的承受能力非常弱。再加上美国总统拜登政府准备提高企业税率，而且工资与原料成本上升，对企业净利的影响不小。\n美国财政部5月份在声明中提到，与经济合作与发展组织(OECD)和二十国集团(G20)合作，针对在国际税收谈判的会议中提出15%的全球最低公司税率，以结束通过最低税率吸引公司的竞争，因为这种竞争最终会侵蚀政府收益。这项提议让美国的立场更贴近，经合组织在美重新参与谈判前所讨论的12.5%最低税率水平。\nTobias Levkovich补充道，目前美股市场过于自满，许多投资者都相信，股市将从政策行情顺利转向业绩行情，但这都还无法确定。企业利润降低、通胀担忧升高，美联储退场、政府加税等诸多利空，都将持续接踵而至。\n投资者也将紧盯预计在7月14日发布的6月份美国消费者物价指数(CPI)，预计年涨5%。美联储主席鲍威尔也将在同日出席听证会，发布货币政策上半年度的报告，而他对通胀与经济展望的讲话也将成为驱动因素。\nDataTrek共同创始人Nicholas Colas提到，标准普尔500指数涨势远比企业盈余增长速度快，今年初以来该指数已经涨近16%，而今年和明年的企业预估获利增长率分别为14%和10%。他认为，2022年盈余需要增长14%，使得预估本益比降低至18倍，美股才算是合理。\n而在新冠疫情方面，美国遭遇新一波变种毒株的来袭，特别是最初在印度发现的Delta变种毒株。美国疾病控制与中心(CDC)表示，已经将Delta变异株列为美国主要病毒，占据超过50%的确诊病例。美国制药公司辉瑞(Pfizer)和其德国合作伙伴BioNTech宣布，计划8月向美国食品药品管理局(FDA)申请授权追加接种第三剂疫苗，表示12个月内接种第三剂疫苗能大幅度提高免疫力，而且也能有助于借此来对抗高传染力的印度Delta变种毒株。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2062,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5195014,"commentId":"5195014","gmtCreate":1626079749650,"gmtModify":1663230859940,"authorId":3568714154755778,"author":{"id":3568714154755778,"idStr":"3568714154755778","authorId":3568714154755778,"name":"新加坡的大螃蟹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007de9b4510c270a143451a9ede3800a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":146657562,"objectIdStr":"146657562","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[呆住]","text":"[呆住]","html":"[呆住]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}