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2021-07-08

Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes: Inflation is still a consensus for the time being, with deep methodological differences

纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债

Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes: Inflation is still a consensus for the time being, with deep methodological differences

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":149153896,"tweetId":"149153896","gmtCreate":1625710634315,"gmtModify":1703746872822,"author":{"id":4088483890194020,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorId":4088483890194020,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149153896","repostId":2149316261,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149316261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625687502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149316261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 03:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes: Inflation is still a consensus for the time being, with deep methodological differences","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149316261","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债","content":"The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials expected, but inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases. In addition to recommending patience, there were also major methodological differences, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be reduced simultaneously in proportion. Some analysts said that officials believe that they will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier than expected. At 2 p.m. on Wednesday, July 7, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of the closely watched FOMC monetary policy meeting from June 15 to 16.As the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals at its June meeting that surprised the market, such as sharply raising economic and inflation expectations for this year and advancing officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors are paying attention to the Fed's views on the economic situation such as inflation and employment in the United States, and whether officials at the meeting will release more clues around \"discussing when to start tapering QE (i.e. taper)\".The minutes showed that monetary policymakers are expected to continue to make progress in \"reaching the threshold for starting to reduce QE,\" but the main tone of the meeting is still the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.The Federal Reserve has indeed begun discussions on tapering bond purchases (taper), but cannot reach a consensus and will continue discussions in the future. For example, some officials believe that purchases of mortgage bonds (MBS) can be cut relatively sooner or sooner, while others are explicitly opposed.At the same time, the minutes also reiterated the Fed's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe that the current upward trend in inflation is temporary and generally does not meet the premise of \"substantial further progress\" in initiating tightening policy.The market has not changed much, the Nasdaq briefly turned higher, and long-term U.S. bond yields maintained a declineAfter the minutes were released, U.S. stocks did not change much. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes maintained their gains, and the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned up. The 10-year U.S. bond yield maintained a 5 basis point decline during the day, gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold stood above the $1,800 mark.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Before the minutes were released, the Dow and S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P rose 0.3% at the beginning of the session and hit an intraday record high, while the Nasdaq turned slightly lower after hitting a new high shortly after opening.Long-term U.S. bond yields continued their deep declines in recent days. The 10-year benchmark U.S. bond yield fell as much as 7.4 basis points during the day, once falling below 1.30% and hitting a five-month low. It returned to above 1.32% before the release of the FOMC minutes, and the intraday decline narrowed to 4.5 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the analysis, the sharp decline in long-term U.S. bond yields highlights the market's concerns about the prospects for U.S. economic growth. Many people believe that the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious new crown Delta variant strain has brought new hidden dangers.The Fed's consensus is \"temporary inflation theory\", but there is no consensus on the future inflation pathSome analysts still question the Fed's judgment that \"inflation is only temporary.\" Minutes from the June FOMC meeting showed officials at the meeting said they had expected short-term inflation to exceed 2%, partly due to the base effect of price declines early in the epidemic and the fact that rising oil prices had been passed on to consumer energy prices.However, officials acknowledged that \"the actual increase in inflation was larger than expected\". most officials believe that the main reason is that supply constraints in the goods and labor markets are wider than expected, and consumer demand has surged more than expected as the economy reopens.The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" as a consensus among officials, although some participants believed that upward pressure on prices would continue until next year.They also pointed out that long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:\"Looking ahead, participants generally expect inflation to ease as the impact of these transitory factors dissipates, but some (several) officials noted that they expect supply chain constraints and input shortages to also put upward pressure on prices next year. Some (several) officials said that in the early months of economic reopening, uncertainty remained high and it was impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures would last. some people said that the recent reading of inflation indicators excluding volatility components has been stable at 2% or slightly lower. a number of participants believed that despite the increase earlier this year, the long-term inflation expectation indicator remained broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target. others point out that it is this year's growth in the aforementioned indicators that has brought it to a level broadly consistent with the Committee's long-term inflation target. \" Of course, Fed officials don't mince words that the magnitude of the rise in inflation this year is somewhat surprising.However, the minutes of the meeting revealed that they were disagreed on the future path of inflation, which may be one of the reasons for maintaining policy patience for the time being.For example, while they \"generally believe\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, the vast majority of participants believe that the risks to their inflation forecasts are biased to the upside:\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages may last longer and could lead to a larger or more lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. Some (several) officials are concerned that if inflation readings continue to rise, long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels. But several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain, as temporary price pressures could subside sooner than currently expected. And, the forces that pushed down inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared and may even reinforce the dissipation of temporary price pressures in the future. \"The Federal Reserve has great controversy about when taper and methodology, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be reduced proportionally simultaneouslyThe minutes showed that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Fed's asset purchases\" and the progress since December last year in adopting forward-looking guidance on bond buying to achieve the committee's goals. Officials at the meeting concluded that they \"generally agree\" that \"substantial further progress\" has not been made to meet the threshold for tightening policy, but that they expect progress to continue.It is worth noting thatThe minutes revealed that the Fed is currently divided internally on when it can start tapering bond purchases (taper) and how to start taper, which may be another reason why the Fed is temporarily on hold in the face of economic and inflation data.various officials who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later\" said that judging from the data, they expected that \"conditions to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases would be met\" earlier than expected at previous meetings.More specifically, in view of the excessive valuation pressure in the real estate market, some (several) officials believe that it is beneficial for the Federal Reserve to reduce its purchase of MBS \"faster or earlier\" than to buy US Treasury Bond.However, several (some) officials objected that the current data provided less clear signals about the potential economic momentum.Several others said that it is advisable to reduce the pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases commensurately, because this method will be completely consistent with the previous market communication of the FOMC, and the purchase of Treasury Bond and MBS provides easing policy by affecting financial conditions more widely.Overall, several (several) officials stressed that the FOMC should be patient when assessing progress towards its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the trend of the labor market and inflation:\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it was important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than-expected achievement of the Committee's objectives or risks that could hinder the achievement of the Committee's objectives. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy in achieving the Committee's objectives and to begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases. Participants reiterated that they will notify the market as early as possible before making an announcement to reduce the pace of bond purchases. \"The Federal Reserve emphasizes that the epidemic has led to increased uncertainty in the outlook and supports the establishment of a variety of standing repurchase toolsIn evaluating current economic conditions and prospects, officials at the meeting acknowledged that U.S. economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened thanks to vaccination progress and strong policy support. Industries hardest affected by the epidemic remain weak but have improved. Overall financial conditions remain loose, and soaring consumer spending prompted them to raise their forecasts for real GDP growth this year.They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue to advance, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. Some people (a few) mentioned that meeting the economic conditions stipulated in Federal Funds rate's forward guidance will be slightly earlier than they predicted in March.But many (many) officials pointed out that the economy is still \"far from achieving the broad and inclusive maximum employment target\", and some (some) officials said that although recent employment growth was strong, it was weaker than their expectations. Several (a number of) pointed out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across ethnic groups, income groups and across industries.At the same time, some (several) people stressed that low interest rates are leading to rising house prices, and the high valuation pressure of the real estate market may bring financial stability risks.Overall, officials at the June meeting \"generally agreed\" that supply disruptions and labor shortages will constrain U.S. economic expansion this year. They also generally agreed that the direction of the economy will largely depend on the course of the virus, and the economic outlook will face risks remain. Therefore, the June meeting held back on major monetary policies such as interest rates and bond buying, waiting for more data in the future to correct officials' judgments:\"Officials at the meeting pointed out that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and may be unbalanced across industries. some (some) believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of evaluating the progress of the committee's goals, and that the speed at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. As a result, officials believe that the uncertainty surrounding their economic forecasts has increased. Although inflation rose more than expected, it was mainly seen as reflecting temporary factors. Officials at the meeting expected inflation to decline towards the FOMC committee's long-term target of 2%. They believe that the current monetary policy and forward guidance are still suitable for promoting maximum employment, achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over time, and inflation expectations stable at 2% over the long term. several stressed that the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is rising, and it is too early to draw definite conclusions about the labor market and inflation path. In their view, this intensified uncertainty of economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty in the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed recent trends in the short-term financing market,They generally support the establishment of a standing repurchase facility (SRF) in the United States and the transformation of temporary repurchase agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the epidemic into standing mechanisms.They generally hope that these tools will play a supporting role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth operation of the market, and the specific design scheme will continue to be discussed.In terms of monetary policy implementation, officials admitted that during the two FOMC meetings, money market interest rates faced downward pressure, and it is more likely that these interest rates will fall further in the near future. Therefore, they support adjustments to the interest rate managed by the Federal Reserve to help keep Federal Funds rate within the target range.In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), which is the upper limit of the benchmark Interest Rate Corridor, and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP), which is the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each to suppress the recent excess liquidity. Officials attending the meeting \"agreed\" that this technical adjustment has nothing to do with the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate or the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve.Analysis: Officials believe tapering will begin earlier than expected, minutes revealBloomberg analyzed that the minutes of the meeting made it very clear that many Fed officials were nervous about the inflation trend in June, and they also believed that they would begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Several officials' comments on the relationship between low interest rates and the overheating of the housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate on when and how quickly to start rate hike.The Wall Street Journal also said that the minutes of the meeting showed that given stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Fed officials acknowledged that they may need to withdraw easing policy support for the economy earlier than expected. While they stressed patience with the QE program, they also believed that bond purchases should end early.Financial media CNBC believes that the minutes of this meeting have basically no contribution to taper, a hot topic in the market. The full text only reiterates that officials are \"considering starting to discuss taper\" (Talking about talking about tapering), and there is almost no other progress.Reuters noted that in the text of the minutes, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it must be \"fully prepared\" before reducing the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes did not clarify when exactly adjustments to bond purchases and interest rate policies would begin, they did show that the Fed was beginning to discuss the matter seriously. Bob Miller, head of fixed income in the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustments have been put on the table, but the Fed has serious internal differences.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes: Inflation is still a consensus for the time being, with deep methodological differences</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve's June FOMC minutes: Inflation is still a consensus for the time being, with deep methodological differences\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-07-08 03:51\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials expected, but inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases. In addition to recommending patience, there were also major methodological differences, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be reduced simultaneously in proportion. Some analysts said that officials believe that they will begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases earlier than expected. At 2 p.m. on Wednesday, July 7, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of the closely watched FOMC monetary policy meeting from June 15 to 16.As the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals at its June meeting that surprised the market, such as sharply raising economic and inflation expectations for this year and advancing officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors are paying attention to the Fed's views on the economic situation such as inflation and employment in the United States, and whether officials at the meeting will release more clues around \"discussing when to start tapering QE (i.e. taper)\".The minutes showed that monetary policymakers are expected to continue to make progress in \"reaching the threshold for starting to reduce QE,\" but the main tone of the meeting is still the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.The Federal Reserve has indeed begun discussions on tapering bond purchases (taper), but cannot reach a consensus and will continue discussions in the future. For example, some officials believe that purchases of mortgage bonds (MBS) can be cut relatively sooner or sooner, while others are explicitly opposed.At the same time, the minutes also reiterated the Fed's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe that the current upward trend in inflation is temporary and generally does not meet the premise of \"substantial further progress\" in initiating tightening policy.The market has not changed much, the Nasdaq briefly turned higher, and long-term U.S. bond yields maintained a declineAfter the minutes were released, U.S. stocks did not change much. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes maintained their gains, and the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned up. The 10-year U.S. bond yield maintained a 5 basis point decline during the day, gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold stood above the $1,800 mark.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Before the minutes were released, the Dow and S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P rose 0.3% at the beginning of the session and hit an intraday record high, while the Nasdaq turned slightly lower after hitting a new high shortly after opening.Long-term U.S. bond yields continued their deep declines in recent days. The 10-year benchmark U.S. bond yield fell as much as 7.4 basis points during the day, once falling below 1.30% and hitting a five-month low. It returned to above 1.32% before the release of the FOMC minutes, and the intraday decline narrowed to 4.5 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the analysis, the sharp decline in long-term U.S. bond yields highlights the market's concerns about the prospects for U.S. economic growth. Many people believe that the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious new crown Delta variant strain has brought new hidden dangers.The Fed's consensus is \"temporary inflation theory\", but there is no consensus on the future inflation pathSome analysts still question the Fed's judgment that \"inflation is only temporary.\" Minutes from the June FOMC meeting showed officials at the meeting said they had expected short-term inflation to exceed 2%, partly due to the base effect of price declines early in the epidemic and the fact that rising oil prices had been passed on to consumer energy prices.However, officials acknowledged that \"the actual increase in inflation was larger than expected\". most officials believe that the main reason is that supply constraints in the goods and labor markets are wider than expected, and consumer demand has surged more than expected as the economy reopens.The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" as a consensus among officials, although some participants believed that upward pressure on prices would continue until next year.They also pointed out that long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:\"Looking ahead, participants generally expect inflation to ease as the impact of these transitory factors dissipates, but some (several) officials noted that they expect supply chain constraints and input shortages to also put upward pressure on prices next year. Some (several) officials said that in the early months of economic reopening, uncertainty remained high and it was impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures would last. some people said that the recent reading of inflation indicators excluding volatility components has been stable at 2% or slightly lower. a number of participants believed that despite the increase earlier this year, the long-term inflation expectation indicator remained broadly in line with the Committee's long-term inflation target. others point out that it is this year's growth in the aforementioned indicators that has brought it to a level broadly consistent with the Committee's long-term inflation target. \" Of course, Fed officials don't mince words that the magnitude of the rise in inflation this year is somewhat surprising.However, the minutes of the meeting revealed that they were disagreed on the future path of inflation, which may be one of the reasons for maintaining policy patience for the time being.For example, while they \"generally believe\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, the vast majority of participants believe that the risks to their inflation forecasts are biased to the upside:\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages may last longer and could lead to a larger or more lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. Some (several) officials are concerned that if inflation readings continue to rise, long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels. But several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain, as temporary price pressures could subside sooner than currently expected. And, the forces that pushed down inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared and may even reinforce the dissipation of temporary price pressures in the future. \"The Federal Reserve has great controversy about when taper and methodology, especially whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be reduced proportionally simultaneouslyThe minutes showed that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Fed's asset purchases\" and the progress since December last year in adopting forward-looking guidance on bond buying to achieve the committee's goals. Officials at the meeting concluded that they \"generally agree\" that \"substantial further progress\" has not been made to meet the threshold for tightening policy, but that they expect progress to continue.It is worth noting thatThe minutes revealed that the Fed is currently divided internally on when it can start tapering bond purchases (taper) and how to start taper, which may be another reason why the Fed is temporarily on hold in the face of economic and inflation data.various officials who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later\" said that judging from the data, they expected that \"conditions to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases would be met\" earlier than expected at previous meetings.More specifically, in view of the excessive valuation pressure in the real estate market, some (several) officials believe that it is beneficial for the Federal Reserve to reduce its purchase of MBS \"faster or earlier\" than to buy US Treasury Bond.However, several (some) officials objected that the current data provided less clear signals about the potential economic momentum.Several others said that it is advisable to reduce the pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases commensurately, because this method will be completely consistent with the previous market communication of the FOMC, and the purchase of Treasury Bond and MBS provides easing policy by affecting financial conditions more widely.Overall, several (several) officials stressed that the FOMC should be patient when assessing progress towards its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the trend of the labor market and inflation:\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it was important to be prepared to reduce the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than-expected achievement of the Committee's objectives or risks that could hinder the achievement of the Committee's objectives. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue to assess the progress of the economy in achieving the Committee's objectives and to begin discussions on plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases. Participants reiterated that they will notify the market as early as possible before making an announcement to reduce the pace of bond purchases. \"The Federal Reserve emphasizes that the epidemic has led to increased uncertainty in the outlook and supports the establishment of a variety of standing repurchase toolsIn evaluating current economic conditions and prospects, officials at the meeting acknowledged that U.S. economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened thanks to vaccination progress and strong policy support. Industries hardest affected by the epidemic remain weak but have improved. Overall financial conditions remain loose, and soaring consumer spending prompted them to raise their forecasts for real GDP growth this year.They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue to advance, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. Some people (a few) mentioned that meeting the economic conditions stipulated in Federal Funds rate's forward guidance will be slightly earlier than they predicted in March.But many (many) officials pointed out that the economy is still \"far from achieving the broad and inclusive maximum employment target\", and some (some) officials said that although recent employment growth was strong, it was weaker than their expectations. Several (a number of) pointed out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across ethnic groups, income groups and across industries.At the same time, some (several) people stressed that low interest rates are leading to rising house prices, and the high valuation pressure of the real estate market may bring financial stability risks.Overall, officials at the June meeting \"generally agreed\" that supply disruptions and labor shortages will constrain U.S. economic expansion this year. They also generally agreed that the direction of the economy will largely depend on the course of the virus, and the economic outlook will face risks remain. Therefore, the June meeting held back on major monetary policies such as interest rates and bond buying, waiting for more data in the future to correct officials' judgments:\"Officials at the meeting pointed out that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and may be unbalanced across industries. some (some) believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of evaluating the progress of the committee's goals, and that the speed at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. As a result, officials believe that the uncertainty surrounding their economic forecasts has increased. Although inflation rose more than expected, it was mainly seen as reflecting temporary factors. Officials at the meeting expected inflation to decline towards the FOMC committee's long-term target of 2%. They believe that the current monetary policy and forward guidance are still suitable for promoting maximum employment, achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over time, and inflation expectations stable at 2% over the long term. several stressed that the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is rising, and it is too early to draw definite conclusions about the labor market and inflation path. In their view, this intensified uncertainty of economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty in the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed recent trends in the short-term financing market,They generally support the establishment of a standing repurchase facility (SRF) in the United States and the transformation of temporary repurchase agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the epidemic into standing mechanisms.They generally hope that these tools will play a supporting role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth operation of the market, and the specific design scheme will continue to be discussed.In terms of monetary policy implementation, officials admitted that during the two FOMC meetings, money market interest rates faced downward pressure, and it is more likely that these interest rates will fall further in the near future. Therefore, they support adjustments to the interest rate managed by the Federal Reserve to help keep Federal Funds rate within the target range.In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), which is the upper limit of the benchmark Interest Rate Corridor, and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP), which is the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each to suppress the recent excess liquidity. Officials attending the meeting \"agreed\" that this technical adjustment has nothing to do with the appropriate path of Federal Funds rate or the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve.Analysis: Officials believe tapering will begin earlier than expected, minutes revealBloomberg analyzed that the minutes of the meeting made it very clear that many Fed officials were nervous about the inflation trend in June, and they also believed that they would begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Several officials' comments on the relationship between low interest rates and the overheating of the housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate on when and how quickly to start rate hike.The Wall Street Journal also said that the minutes of the meeting showed that given stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Fed officials acknowledged that they may need to withdraw easing policy support for the economy earlier than expected. While they stressed patience with the QE program, they also believed that bond purchases should end early.Financial media CNBC believes that the minutes of this meeting have basically no contribution to taper, a hot topic in the market. The full text only reiterates that officials are \"considering starting to discuss taper\" (Talking about talking about tapering), and there is almost no other progress.Reuters noted that in the text of the minutes, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it must be \"fully prepared\" before reducing the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes did not clarify when exactly adjustments to bond purchases and interest rate policies would begin, they did show that the Fed was beginning to discuss the matter seriously. Bob Miller, head of fixed income in the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustments have been put on the table, but the Fed has serious internal differences.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149316261","content_text":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模。\n\n7月7日美东周三下午2点，美联储发布了备受关注的6月15日至16日FOMC货币政策会议完整纪要。\n由于美联储在6月会上释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，例如大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，以及将官员们的加息预测提前至2023年，因此，投资者关注纪要中提到的美联储对美国通胀和就业等经济形势看法，以及与会官员们是否会围绕“讨论何时开始减码QE（即taper）”释放更多线索。\n纪要显示，货币政策制定者们预计将继续在“达到开始减码QE的门槛”上取得进展，但会议的主基调仍是在收紧货币政策方面需要保持耐心。\n美联储确实已经开始讨论缩减购债（taper）的事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。例如，一些官员认为对抵押贷款债券（MBS）的购买可以相对更早或更快削减，另一些人则明确表示反对。\n同时，纪要还重申了美联储今年以来的观点，即尽管通胀上升速度快于官员们预期，他们仍认为当前的通胀上行趋势是暂时的，总体上没有达到启动紧缩政策的“实质性进一步进展”前提。\n市场变动不大，纳指短暂转涨，长端美债收益率保持跌势\n纪要发布后，美股变动不大，道指和标普500指数保持涨势，纳指止跌转涨。10年期美债收益率维持日内5个基点的跌幅，金银小幅上涨，现货黄金站稳1800美元关口上方。\n\n在纪要发布前，道指和标普500指数温和上涨，标普大盘盘初曾涨0.3%并创盘中历史新高，纳指则在开盘不久创新高后小幅转跌。\n长端美债收益率延续近日来的深度跌幅。10年期基准美债收益率日内最深下行7.4个基点，一度跌破1.30%并创五个月最低，FOMC纪要发布前重回1.32%上方，日内降幅收窄至4.5个基点。\n\n分析称，长端美债收益率大幅走低，凸显出市场对美国经济增长前景的担忧，不少人认为复苏可能已经触顶，以及高传染性的新冠Delta变异毒株带来崭新隐患。\n美联储共识是“通胀暂时论”，但对未来通胀路径莫衷一是\n仍有分析师质疑美联储对“通胀只是暂时”的判断。6月FOMC会议纪要显示，与会官员们表示，他们已经预计到了短期通胀将超过2%，部分原因是疫情初期价格下跌的基数效应，以及油价上涨已传递到消费者能源价格。\n不过，官员们还是承认，“通胀的实际升幅大于预期”。大多数（most）官员认为主因是商品和劳动力市场的供应限制比预期更广泛，以及随着经济重新开放，消费者的需求激增超出预期。\n纪要强调了“通胀是暂时的”为官员间共识，尽管不乏有与会者认为价格上行压力会持续到明年。他们还格外指出，长期通胀预期仍保持与FOMC的长期通胀目标一致：\n\n “展望未来，与会者普遍预期通胀会随着这些暂时性因素的影响消散而缓解，但一些（several）官员指出，他们预计供应链限制和投入品短缺将在明年也对价格构成上行压力。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员称，在经济重新开放的最初几个月，不确定性仍然很高，无法准确评估通胀压力持续多久。几人（some）称，剔除波动成分的通胀指标近期读数一直稳定在2%或略低水平。\n\n\n 多位（a number of）与会者认为，尽管今年早期有所增加，长期通胀预期指标仍保持在与委员会的长期通胀目标基本一致范围内。其他人（others）指出，正是今年上述指标的增长使其达到了与委员会长期通胀目标大体一致的水平。”\n\n当然，美联储官员们并不讳言今年通胀上行的幅度有些令人意外。不过，会议纪要透露出他们对通胀未来的路径莫衷一是，这可能是暂时保持政策耐心的原因之一。\n例如，尽管他们“普遍认为”美国经济前景面临的风险大致平衡，但绝大多数（a substantial majority of）与会者认为，他们的通胀预测风险偏向上行：\n\n “这是因为他们担心供应中断和劳动力短缺可能会持续更长时间，并可能导致对价格和工资的影响比他们目前假设的更大或更持久。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员担心，如果通胀读数持续升高，长期通胀预期可能会升至不适当的水平。\n\n\n 但其他几位（several other）官员警告称，通胀的下行风险仍然存在，因为暂时的价格压力可能会比目前预期得更快消退。而且，之前经济扩张期间压低通胀及其预期的力量并未消失，甚至可能会强化未来暂时价格压力消散的过程。”\n\n美联储对何时taper及方法论争议很大，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减\n纪要显示，6月FOMC会议“讨论了美联储的资产购买”，以及自去年12月来采纳买债前瞻指引以实现委员会目标的进展。与会官员的结论是，他们“普遍认为”尚未取得满足收紧政策门槛的“实质性进一步进展”，但他们预计将继续取得进展。\n值得注意的是，纪要透露出，美联储目前对何时可以开始缩减购债（taper），以及该如何开始taper存在很大内部分歧，这可能也是美联储在经济和通胀数据面前暂时按兵不动的另一个原因。\n支持“宜早不宜迟”减少购债的多位（various）与会官员称，从数据来判断，他们预计“达到开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件”将比之前会议上的预期更早一些。\n更具体来说，鉴于房地产市场的过高估值压力，一些（several）官员认为，相比于购买美国国债，美联储“更快或更早地”减少购买MBS是有益的。\n然而，几位（some）官员反对称，当前数据提供关于潜在经济势头的信号不太明确。\n另有多人（several other）称，按照比例同步（commensurately）降低国债和MBS 购买步伐才是可取的，因为这种方法将与FOMC之前的市场沟通完全一致，而且购买国债和MBS都通过更广泛地影响金融状况来提供了宽松政策。\n总体来说，几位（several）官员强调，FOMC在评估实现其目标的进展和宣布资产购买计划变更时应保持耐心，未来几个月的信息将更好评估劳动力市场和通胀的走势：\n\n “与会官员普遍认为，作为审慎规划的一部分，重要的是要做好准备以在适当情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期，或出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险。\n\n\n 在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现委员会目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。参与者重申将在发布减少购债速度的公告之前尽早向市场发出通知。”\n\n美联储强调疫情导致前景不确定性升高，支持设置多种常备回购工具\n在评价当前经济状况和前景时，与会官员们承认，在疫苗接种进展和强有力的政策支持下，美国经济活动和就业指标有所增强，受疫情影响最严重的行业仍然疲软但已出现改善，整体金融状况依旧宽松，消费者支出飙升促使他们上调了对今年实际GDP的增长预测。\n他们预计劳动力市场状况将继续改善，随着疫苗接种继续推进、社交距离政策逐步放松、更多学校重新开学，以及扩大的失业救济到期，劳动力短缺情况将在整个夏季和秋季缓解。一些人（a few）提到，达成联邦基金利率前瞻指引中规定的经济状况将比他们在3月的预测稍早一些。\n但许多（many）官员指出，经济仍“远未实现广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标”，一些（some）官员称，虽然近期就业增长强劲，但弱于他们的预期。几人（a number of）指出，劳动力市场复苏在不同族裔、收入群体以及跨行业之间仍然不平衡。\n同时，一些（several）人强调，低利率正在导致房价上涨，而房地产市场的高估值压力可能会带来金融稳定风险。\n整体来说，官员们在6月会议上“普遍认为” 供应中断和劳动力短缺将制约今年美国经济扩张，他们还普遍认为，经济走向将在很大程度上取决于病毒的进程，经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。因此，6月会议在利率和买债等主要货币政策上按兵不动，等待未来更多数据修正官员的判断：\n\n “与会官员指出，重新开放经济的过程史无前例，各行业之间可能不平衡。一些人（some）认为，供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，并且这些因素消散的速度不确定。因此，官员认为围绕他们经济预测的不确定性有所增加。\n\n\n 尽管通胀升幅超过预期，但主要被视为反映了暂时因素，与会官员们预计通胀将朝着FOMC委员会2%的长期目标下降。他们认为，当前的货币政策和前瞻指引仍然适合促进最大就业、实现一段时间内平均2%的通胀率，以及长期稳定在2%的通胀预期。\n\n\n 几人（several）强调，围绕经济前景的不确定性升高，现在就劳动力市场和通胀路径得出确切结论还为时过早。在他们看来，经济发展的这种不确定性加剧，也意味着联邦基金利率的适当路径存在重大不确定性。 ”\n\n同时，官员们还讨论了短期融资市场的近期走势，他们普遍支持设置美国国内的常备回购便利工具（SRF），并将疫情期间针对海外和国际货币机构的临时回购协议转变为常备机制。他们普遍希望这些工具在促进货币政策的有效实施，以及确保市场平稳运行方面发挥支持作用，具体设计方案会继续讨论。\n而在货币政策执行方面，官员们承认在两次FOMC会议期间，货币市场利率面临下行压力，近期内这些利率进一步下行的可能性较大。因此他们支持对美联储管理利率作出调整，以帮助联邦基金利率保持在目标范围内。\n美联储在6月上调了作为基准利率走廊上限的超额准备金利率（IOER），和作为走廊下限的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）各5个基点，以打压近期流动性过剩局面。与会官员们“一致认为”，此次技术性调整，与联邦基金利率的适当路径或美联储的货币政策立场无关。\n分析：纪要透露，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模\n彭博分析称，会议纪要非常清楚地表明，不少联储官员对6月的通胀走势感到紧张，他们也认为会比此前预期更早地开始缩减资产购买规模。几位官员对低利率与房地产市场过热之间的关系评论，可能意味着这一点会越来越多在何时以及多快开始加息的辩论中发挥作用。\n华尔街日报也称，会议纪要显示，鉴于今年经济增长强于预期，美联储官员们承认，可能需要比预期更早地撤回对经济的宽松政策支持。尽管他们强调要对QE计划保持耐心，但也认为债券购买应该提前结束。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，本次会议纪要对taper这一市场热门话题基本没有贡献，全文只是重申官员们正在“考虑开始讨论taper”（Talking about talking about tapering），几乎没有其他进展。\n路透社注意到，纪要文本中，美联储提到在削减购债速度之前必须“做好充分准备”。尽管纪要没有澄清究竟何时会开始调整购债和利率政策，但确实显示出美联储开始认真讨论此事。贝莱德美洲固收主管Bob Miller称，货币政策调整已经被摆上台面，但美联储存在严重内部分歧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1535,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}