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2021-07-08

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Eight major macroeconomic outlooks for the second half of the year

报告摘要展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？我们认为大通胀和

Eight major macroeconomic outlooks for the second half of the year

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":149870568,"tweetId":"149870568","gmtCreate":1625718059254,"gmtModify":1703747052496,"author":{"id":3577059908006860,"idStr":"3577059908006860","authorId":3577059908006860,"authorIdStr":"3577059908006860","name":"willy86","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149870568","repostId":1129945496,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129945496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625712407,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129945496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Eight major macroeconomic outlooks for the second half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129945496","media":"东北宏观by凤来仪","summary":"报告摘要\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？我们认为大通胀和","content":"Summary of the reportOutlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong? We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.Outlook 2: Will the future be great inflation or great deflation? We believe that neither the foundation for great inflation nor great deflation is in place. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to experience sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will fall slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.Outlook 3: What will be the pace of the Fed's monetary policy? With the economic recovery and rising inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The U.S. dollar will receive short-term support, and there will also be upward pressure on the long-term yield of U.S. bonds.Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year? Under the drag of the high base, China's exports in the second half of 2021 will be difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of the year. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate of 21% under the optimistic scenario, 15% under the neutral scenario, and 10% under the pessimistic scenario (the probability is low). In terms of structure, it fell quarter by quarter from high to low.Outlook 5: Can manufacturing investment continue to recover? We believe that the manufacturing industry is still on an upward channel in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate for the whole year will be around 10%, with a compound year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% for 2019.Outlook 6: What is the rhythm of consumption recovery? We believe that with the increase of residents' income and the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, China's consumption will continue to recover, but due to the long tail effect brought about by the epidemic, the recovery rate of consumption may still be slow.Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose? We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, the PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.Outlook 8: What are the short-term and long-term trends of RMB exchange rate? The RMB exchange rate has experienced ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that the RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, the RMB still has a strong fundamental foundation for appreciation.Risk warning: The global epidemic is spreading again, and policies are tightened too quickly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931b5fe6815d0ec3a09e2b5950ce27b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dd156d2336c7b25eafe76957fce943\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Report textOutlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong?We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.1.1. The United States may have a comparative advantage in epidemic controlSince the outbreak of the global epidemic, the primary factor that determines the speed of economic recovery in various countries is the epidemic control. China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, resumed work and production smoothly, and restarted its economy, becoming the only country among major economies to achieve positive growth in 2020. In other countries, the epidemic situation has rebounded on a large scale, and the economy has never been able to fully open up. Countries that can take the lead in epidemic prevention and control will undoubtedly gain huge comparative advantages.For overseas countries, vaccine penetration rate and vaccine effectiveness are the keys to successful epidemic prevention and control.Developed countries have inherent advantages in the popularization of vaccines。 European and American countries are producers of many kinds of vaccines and monopolize the production of most vaccines. Most emerging economies have difficulty obtaining vaccines in a short time. Therefore, the recent epidemic prevention and control situation in developed countries is generally better than that in developing countries. At present, although the popularization of vaccines in the United States has slowed down, the number of new cases has continued to decline, reflecting that vaccine popularization has indeed played an obvious role in epidemic prevention and control. Moreover, most of the people who refuse to be vaccinated in the United States are young people and are more immune to Novel Coronavirus, so the slowdown in vaccine popularization has not caused a rebound in the epidemic.From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, there are currently three major COVID-19 vaccine in the world: mRNA vaccines, represented by Pfizer-Moderna vaccines; Adenovirus vector vaccines, represented by the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine; Inactivated vaccines, represented by Chinese vaccines. We selected the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile, several countries with high vaccine penetration rates for analysis. Among them, the vaccines vaccinated in the United States and Canada are mainly mRNA vaccines; The vaccines vaccinated in the UK are mainly adenovirus vector vaccine and mRNA vaccine; The vaccines vaccinated in Chile are mainly inactivated vaccines.From the perspective of epidemic control, the average number of new cases in the United States has steadily declined on the 7th day, and the epidemic situation in Canada has also been well controlled. The epidemic situation in the UK has rebounded significantly recently. Some medical experts said that most of the new cases in the UK are Novel Coronavirus's variant Delta virus, and the adenovirus vector vaccine is not effective in preventing and controlling Delta virus. The epidemic situation in Chile has begun to decline since June, but at a slower rate than that in the United States and Canada. At present, there is no conclusion on the effectiveness of several COVID-19 vaccine in medicine, butFrom the data point of view, it seems that mRNA vaccines have more advantages in epidemic prevention and control in the short term.We analyzed more sample countries, mostly in line with this conclusion, so we will not list them all here.Vaccination in the United States is dominated by mRNA vaccines. Correspondingly, European countries have vaccinated a large number of adenovirus vector vaccines. Japan's vaccination rate is still low so far, only comparable to the world average. The progress of vaccination in emerging markets is generally lagging behind. Therefore, in the second half of this year, the United States may have certain comparative advantages in epidemic prevention and control, and it is expected to control the epidemic first and achieve full economic opening.Our basic assumption is that the third quarter will be the time when the epidemic situation in the United States is under control and the economy is completely open. This is a necessary condition for the U.S. economy to continue its strong recovery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39792febaa47d2b1bfc4dc728bcee55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4d9caa31c3f569736754d4de6ec948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1.2. U.S. job market is expected to accelerate recoveryU.S. non-farm payrolls data in April and May fell short of expectations, which was also an important factor that previously suppressed the U.S. dollar, U.S. bond yields and hindered the normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, we believe that the slowdown in U.S. employment is temporary, and the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter.There are three main factors that led to the U.S. employment data falling short of expectations in April and May:First, the U.S. government's cash subsidies and unemployment benefits to residents reduce the urgency of the unemployed to find jobs.Some survey results show that compared with before the epidemic, the proportion of American residents looking for jobs due to \"economic pressure\" is lower recently. Many unemployed people prefer to lie at home and receive financial subsidies. Republican states generally plan to end unemployment benefits earlier, while Democratic states will withdraw later. Correspondingly, after the epidemic, the unemployment rate of Republican red states is also significantly lower than that of Democratic blue states.Second, the epidemic still affects some people's willingness to go out to work.Although many Americans don't care about Novel Coronavirus and don't pay attention to prevention and control. But many people are very cautious about this. According to the data of ZipRecruiter, an American job search website, more than half of job seekers want to work remotely, but only 10% of employers will offer remote jobs, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand. Only after the epidemic is fully controlled can this problem be effectively alleviated.Third, due to the blockade of many schools and educational institutions during the epidemic, the demand of children's parents to take care of their children at home has increased, making it difficult to go out to work.Relevant surveys in the United States show that the rate of parents with younger children returning to work is significantly lower than the average level.Obviously, the root cause of the above three reasons lies in the epidemic and related impacts, and they are all short-term factors. These factors are expected to ease in the third quarter.First of all, many states in the United States already plan to end unemployment benefits early. According to the current plan of each state, half of the states will end unemployment benefits before July 10th, which will prompt more people to go out to look for job opportunities. Secondly, we believe that the epidemic situation in the United States will continue to ease in the third quarter, the economy is expected to fully open up, and the number of people who do not look for jobs due to concerns about the epidemic will also be greatly reduced. Thirdly, with the reopening of schools and educational institutions in the third quarter, the need for parents to take care of their children at home will also decrease, prompting this group to go out to work. So,We believe that the U.S. job market will rebound significantly in the third quarter, and the unexpected growth in non-farm payrolls in June has begun to reflect this trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58f8442dab0b284161f2612523309e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1.3. U.S. manufacturing inventory replenishment has not yet ended, and the real estate market remains resilientWe believe that the manufacturing inventory replenishment cycle brought about by the recovery of U.S. production has not yet ended, and will continue to boost the economy in the third quarter, and may even last until the end of the year.We compared the experience of four typical inventory replenishment cycles in the United States since 2000, namely, the inventory replenishment after the Internet bubble, the inventory replenishment after the financial crisis, the global resonance inventory replenishment in 2016 and the inventory replenishment cycle after this COVID-19 pandemic. As shown in the figure below, taking the lowest point of inventory year-on-year in each cycle as the origin, the inventory replenishment stage usually lasts for more than 12 months, and the longest can be about 24 months. The process of inventory replenishment in this cycle is faster than in the past, but the trend of inventory replenishment by wholesalers and retailers is obviously not over yet. Although manufacturers' inventory replenishment has risen and fallen, we think it may be due to incomplete resumption of work and production. With the further recovery of the production side, manufacturers' inventory replenishment is also expected to continue.However, judging from the trend comparison, it is difficult for the U.S. inventory replenishment cycle to maintain a strong momentum next year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99bcd2f1cba429c11596628ae176f5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8796a17bea0a86c6a861e479c808fe0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The U.S. housing market is beginning to show signs of cooling.Rising building costs have sharply pushed up home prices, while mortgage rates in the United States have also started to rise at the beginning of this year, which has limited residents' ability to buy houses. Coupled with the shortage of housing inventory, home sales have begun to decline.However, housing construction spending will remain resilient.On the one hand, although U.S. housing sales have cooled down, we do not expect them to fall back quickly, because the absolute level of interest rates is still not high, and new houses joining the market will meet the demand that could not be released due to insufficient inventory before. On the other hand, the demand for real estate inventory replenishment in the United States is still there, and the cycle of housing construction expenditure lags behind the sales cycle, so the pull on the economy still exists.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310c2e08fe5bf881869d7ae1213bcf12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ad630361b2100f50ea4cbf00853d0c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1.4. Services will recover strongly as the economy opens upSince the outbreak of the epidemic, strong fiscal stimulus policies have brought about a V-shaped rebound in commodity consumption, even far stronger than before the epidemic. However, the service industry dropped to freezing point due to the economic lockdown, and the recovery rate has been slower since then.According to the government blockade index compiled by Oxford University, due to the impact of the epidemic, the degree of blockade in the United States is still high, which restricts the recovery of the service industry. In the third quarter, as the epidemic was brought under control and the economy was completely opened up, there was a lot of room for the service industry to recover. From the perspective of employment situation, there is still a big gap in the number of employed people in related industries of the service industry compared with before the epidemic, and there is great potential.At the same time, we believe that service consumption and commodity consumption are expected to promote each other rather than crowd out each other. At present, the income of American residents is still much higher than before the epidemic, and the savings level is also significantly higher than before the epidemic, so residents' spending power is fully guaranteed. What restricts consumption is not budget constraints, but consumption scenarios lacking service industry.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a5bbd1f8270031c49e665da2e3524\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504e7380fbc42e157bcf824cb509ea2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Based on the above reasons, we believe that the United States will have a comparative advantage in epidemic prevention and control in the third quarter, the job market is expected to accelerate its recovery, the manufacturing and real estate industries are resilient, and the service industry will recover strongly. Therefore, the performance of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, will remain impressive.But in the long run,The source of this round of strong economic recovery in the United States is the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus far exceeding that of other countries. It is difficult for the United States to have a new bailout bill in the future, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also on the way to normalization. After next year, the United States will face the pain caused by policy withdrawal. Judging from the experience of several rounds of QE withdrawal in the United States after the financial crisis, the withdrawal of monetary policy will bring downward pressure on the economy. It can also be seen from the above discussion that the boom in manufacturing inventory replenishment and real estate will most likely end this year, soThe prosperity of the U.S. economy this year is unsustainable in the long run.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f34e2714dfc32ad29ba4f1cf2dbdf0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 2: Will the future be great inflation or great deflation?Inflation is one of the core global macroeconomic concerns this year. However, the market's view on inflation is more polarized. One view is that due to the widening gap between the rich and the poor and the restart of global trade, deflation will be a long-term trend; Another view is that due to unprecedented money release and insufficient supply, there will be a major inflation trend in the world in the future. We believe that neither the foundation for great inflation nor great deflation is in place. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to experience sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will fall slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.2.1. The U.S. long-term inflation center will riseFrom a long-term perspective, although the recent high inflation prevailing around the world will eventually fall back, we do not think there will be a major deflationary environment, and the future inflation center will be higher than in the past decade, for the following two reasons:First, the huge amount of fiscal stimulus in this round is combined with monetary stimulus, which is different from the previous post-crisis stimulus mode based on monetary policy。 Mainly relying on monetary policy stimulus will cause a large amount of money to be stranded in the financial system and unable to flow into the real economy. As a result, the price of financial assets will rise sharply. Fiscal policy can effectively promote the inflow of money into the real economy, thereby pushing up real inflation. This year's global inflation that exceeded expectations is a reflection of the effect of fiscal policy.Another direct result of \"helicopter money\" is the shortage of labor market supply, and at the same time, it pushes up the wage level. The figure below shows the relationship between the average hourly wage of the U.S. commodity production sector and the U.S. CPI. It can be seen that whenWhen wage growth matches inflation, there is a sustained upward momentum for inflation, such as in the 1970s and 2001-2008. And when wage growth lags significantly behind inflation, inflation will rise weakly, such as in 1980-2000 and 2011-2016。 In fact, in recent years, wage levels in the United States have been rising continuously in the past two years, which is an important driving force for upward inflation. The U.S. CPI approached 3% several times year-on-year in 2017 and 2018. This trend has accelerated after the epidemic, and the ratio of wages to CPI has reached the level of the 1970s, which will also push inflation to continue to accelerate. Usually this trend cannot be ended in the short term. Although the current shortage of labor supply is largely due to short-term factors, it is undeniable that the decrease in labor participation rate and the changes in the economic structure brought about by the epidemic have also brought consequences to labor supply. With a long-term impact, the cycle of rising wages driving up inflation may continue for a long time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a697c3b3c73dcf5b49fe15d5a0597d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, deglobalization and manufacturing reshoring policies in developed countries will bring long-term inflationary pressures.A well-known reason for the low inflation in developed countries since 2000 is that the continuous development of global trade has led to the impact of cheap commodities in emerging economies on the commodity prices in developed countries, and the huge low-price supply in developing countries has made it impossible for developed countries to stimulate demand no matter how much they stimulate inflation. An obvious example is that after China's accession to WTO, the CPI of American commodities plunged rapidly, reflecting the low inflation effect brought by global trade.But this trend has been hindered and is even beginning to reverse. First, global trade has entered a bottleneck. In recent years, the global trade openness index has fluctuated and declined. Especially after populist governments in various countries came to power, globalization has encountered greater challenges, and the trend of cheap goods in emerging markets depressing inflation in developed countries has been blocked. Sino-US trade friction is a typical example. Second, developed countries have generally started the \"manufacturing reshoring\" plan. G7 countries take the lead in implementing the global lowest tax rate policy, which is intended to attract overseas tax avoidance companies to return to their countries. A series of current and future policy goals will be to increase the costs of multinational companies overseas. If multinational companies go to their own countries, they will also face higher labor costs. The long-term increase in costs will also promote the long-term upward trend of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094ef7547da65bd364b678370434c41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.2. Current macro conditions do not have the basis for big inflationAs mentioned above, we believe that the long-term inflation center of developed countries represented by the United States will rise. So will there be a big inflation similar to that in the 1970s? At present, the market's focus on inflation is mainly in the United States. From the perspective of the United States, we will discuss whether there is a basis for big inflation (the inflation rate remains above 5% for a long time).Looking back at the inflation history of the United States over the past century, we can see that there are three obvious periods of great inflation: the First World War, the Second World War, and the oil crisis in the 1970s. We believe that the basis of great inflation mainly includes the following points:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409a3fd3d49a628a29c7192588dcd8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, fiscal or monetary expansion leads to a large increase in money supply.Both World War I and World War II were the monetization of fiscal deficits caused by wars, and the money supply surged; Before the oil crisis, it was actually due to the Vietnam War that the money supply in the United States increased greatly, and M2 was even much higher year-on-year than during the period after the financial crisis. The essence of inflation is a monetary phenomenon. This economic law has not actually failed, but the premise is that the money circulating in the real economy increases.Second, monetary policy needs some room to stimulate long-term demand。 When the interest rate level is high and the monetary policy space is large, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts can effectively promote the circulation of money in the real economy; When the interest rate level is very low, monetary easing will easily fall into the liquidity trap, unable to push money into the real economy, and then idle in the financial system, resulting in the failure of monetary policy.Third, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations comes from the ambiguity of monetary policy objectives。 The common feature of the three major inflation periods seems to be the fault on the supply side, which is manifested by military production crowding out civilian production and the interruption of oil supply. But we think this is only the superficial reason, and the underlying reason lies in the rise in inflation expectations. The supply gap has pushed up inflation expectations. During the three major inflation periods, central banks of various countries did not have clear inflation targets. Instead, they repeatedly hovered between the economy and inflation, and never really tightened the currency, resulting in the market's sustained expectations of monetary easing. expectations, and ultimately inflation expectations and monetary easing expectations promote each other and become self-fulfilling.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42672c4a8cf5fef6457e23b4826177c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition, emerging economies may also lead to imported hyperinflation due to debt crisis and currency devaluation, but we only discuss large economies here, not considering this situation.Combining the above three major inflation bases, let's analyze the current situation. First of all, the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is in line with this situation all over the world at present. The debt ratio of the U.S. government even exceeds that of World War II, and most other countries do the same. The global M2 soared and the money supply flooded. Secondly, there is some room for monetary policy. This is not satisfactory. At present, almost all developed countries have zero or negative interest rates. There is a large backlog of base money on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, and the characteristics of liquidity trap are obvious. Finally, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations is difficult to achieve at present. Because central banks around the world have basically set clear inflation targets, which have played a very important and effective role in managing market expectations, the market no longer believes that central banks will ignore inflation and stimulate the economy. Although the Federal Reserve has changed the framework of inflation, it still has clear requirements for controlling inflation, which is completely different from the past period of great inflation. The restriction of monetary policy on inflation target makes it difficult for the market to have excessive inflation expectations.Based on the above points, we believe that the world currently does not have the basis for large inflation, and it is difficult to experience sustained excessive inflation.2.3. There is a high probability of a short-term commodity price correction, but the magnitude is expected to be limitedAfter discussing the long-term inflation outlook, we return to our judgment on the trend of inflation during the year. We believe that commodity prices have most likely peaked in the near future, and there may be a correction, thereby alleviating some inflationary pressures.First of all, global M2 growth has reached an inflection point, pointing to downward pressure on commodity prices.We calculated the M2 sum of G4 and BRIC countries year-on-year. This indicator is highly correlated with the RJ/CRB commodity price index year-on-year. It is leading most of the time and synchronized in a few periods. The leading period is mostly about half a year. This indicator peaked in February this year, and empirically speaking, there is correction pressure on the overall price of commodities.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b4fb0cfd10b291c36a468765dd3c3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Secondly, the gradual tightening signal released by the Federal Reserve and the price control of the Chinese government also help to reduce the speculation of commodities in the market。 According to recent data, copper, crude oil and other varieties that were previously concerned by market speculators have cooled down significantly. Commodity markets are returning to fundamentals.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230abe3b2dd81d1cb7cf51f72f77c3fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, we believe that the correction of commodity prices is limited, and it is difficult for prices to continue to fall.First of all, production in emerging markets is not recovering quickly, making it difficult to rapidly increase the supply of raw materials.Judging from the production index of various types of economies around the world compiled by the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Analysis, the production level of emerging economies excluding China has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level by the end of the first quarter, and the downward trend has reappeared at the end of the first quarter. With the popularization of vaccines in emerging markets generally lagging behind and the epidemic prevention and control situation poor, it is not known when the gap in raw material supply will be filled.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a071791a826fb3d84796b6132c88fabd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Secondly, while iron ore, copper, coal and other commodities have seen recent corrections, crude oil prices, the mother of commodities, have been rising。 International oil prices are highly correlated with China's coal, black, non-ferrous and other commodity prices. At present, oil prices are likely to remain high or even continue to rise in the third quarter, which will hinder the downward trend of overall inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0e1db3bf03d80169d25e4dc2bcc697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Based on the above judgment, we believe that in the second half of the year, under the effect of a slight correction in commodity prices and a rising base, China's PPI will fall slightly year-on-year, but it will fluctuate at a high level, and there is a risk of exceeding expectations. However, the pressure on CPI to rise is very small. On the one hand, China's consumption recovery is stable, and there will be no surge on the demand side; On the other hand, the price of pork fell rapidly to a lower position, which greatly dragged down the growth rate of CPI.Outlook 3: What will be the pace of the Fed's monetary policy?With the economic recovery and rising inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The U.S. dollar will receive short-term support, and there will also be upward pressure on the long-term yield of U.S. bonds.3.1. It is imperative for the Fed to reduce bond purchasesJudging from the objective market reaction, the current QE of the Federal Reserve has led to excess liquidity in the market, and the necessity of continuing to buy bonds is declining.The number of overnight reverse repurchases in the United States has climbed to historical highs, much higher than the situation in the late stages of previous rounds of QE. Different from China's reverse repurchase, the rise of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase means that the financial system deposits money into the Federal Reserve in exchange for bonds and other assets, that is, the market actively poures \"water\" back into the Federal Reserve, indicating that the market liquidity has been seriously excess. Even in order to maintain the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve had to raise the IOER and ONRRP interest rates by 5 basis points each at its June meeting to avoid excessive liquidity pushing short-term interest rates below zero. Various signs of excess liquidity point to the need for the Fed to speed up the process of tapering bond purchases.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f58b34942183221d6f435c8157d49c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judging from the subjective will of the Federal Reserve, the expected guidance for tapering bond purchases is also progressing steadily.Although the Federal Reserve meeting in June did not formally discuss tapering bond purchases, Powell pointed out that he is ready to discuss tapering bond purchases, which is a step forward compared with the previous argument of \"not discussing tapering bond purchases.\" We believe that the Fed's current round of tapering bond purchases will be roughly divided into five stages:Phase 1: No discussion of tapering bond purchases at all.Phase 2: Prepare to discuss tapering bond purchases.Phase 3: Formal discussion of tapering bond purchases.The fourth stage: announce the time plan for reducing bond purchases.The fifth stage: officially start to reduce bond purchases.This process fully reflects the communication between the Fed and the market. At present, the Federal Reserve has entered the second stage from the first stage. It is expected that the reduction of bond purchases will be formally discussed in July or August, and the time plan for the reduction of bond purchases may be announced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may be officially implemented at the end of this year or early next year.Another signal from the June Fed meeting was that the Fed no longer completely ignores inflation.Previously, when the CPI data rose more than expected, Fed officials would come forward to \"cool down\", emphasizing that inflation is a short-term factor and will not change the orientation of monetary policy. But at the June meeting, Powell pointed out that \"inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected,\" meaning the Fed has admitted that it may misjudge inflation. At the same time, it pointed out that \"if inflation expectations are too high, it will be ready to adjust policies.\" It shows that the Federal Reserve has not completely downplayed inflation, but has prepared policy responses at any time. As we mentioned earlier, the long-term inflation center in the United States will rise, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations in the short term, which will also prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary policy normalization.3.2. The U.S. dollar will maintain short-term strength, and U.S. bond yields are expected to resume their upward trendSince the Fed has fully communicated with the market in this cycle and has successfully guided market expectations, we believe that the process of normalizing the Fed's monetary policy will not cause great disturbance to the market, and the stock market will not be significantly impacted. However, with the gradual fulfillment of tightening expectations, the exchange rate and bond market will change accordingly.We believe that under the expectation of Fed tightening, the US Dollar Index will maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but will not enter a strong dollar cycle.We mentioned in the first part that the U.S. economy should perform strongly in the third quarter and have a relatively large comparative advantage over other major economies, which is the fundamental basis for supporting the U.S. dollar. At the same time, we believe that the expectation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening will gradually heat up in the third quarter, which is the policy basis of the strong US dollar.However, in the long run, the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy does not necessarily lead to a strong cycle of the US dollar. Looking back at the experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after 2008, each QE withdrawal will bring short-term strength to the US dollar, but whether the momentum can be maintained still depends on whether the fundamentals of the US economy really improve. Although the U.S. dollar entered a strong cycle after the withdrawal of QE3, the larger background at that time was that the European debt crisis broke out again, and QE expectations in the euro zone continued to heat up and finally landed, passively pushing up the U.S. dollar. At present, judging from the Treasury Bond spread between several major debtor countries in Europe and Germany, the risk of European debt crisis has been greatly weakened. Although the normalization process of monetary policy in the euro zone is slower than that of the United States, it is difficult to reverse operation in 2014-2015. As mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. economy is likely to be at a relative disadvantage after next year, so it is difficult for the U.S. dollar to maintain its strong momentum in the long run.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe80f547be0f5209496be48045b52880\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/600a20ce3d5221aab6ee331aef941945\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the bond market, a more interesting phenomenon appeared after the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve in June: short-term interest rates rose rapidly, but long-term interest rates fell sharply, and the yield curve flattened. This reflects that the market currently has no doubts about the Fed's short-term acceleration of monetary policy tightening or even rate hike, but has no confidence in the long-term economy and inflation. This is partially consistent with our judgment logic on the US Dollar Index. The performance of the US dollar is more correlated with short-term interest rates in the United States, but it is not easy to maintain strength in the long run.However, we believe that the long-term interest rate in the third quarter still has a large upward risk.At present, a very important reason why the market is pessimistic about long-term growth is that the employment data is not impressive enough. Even if the non-farm employment data rose more than expected in June, the unemployment rate also rose abnormally, which cannot dispel market worries. At the same time, with the recent correction in commodity prices, inflation expectations have also declined. However, as mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter, and inflation is unlikely to fall soon, so long-term U.S. bond yields may continue to rise after a short correction.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187754d6a6aacc087ac4ee6d99bc3952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year?Under the drag of the high base, China's exports in the second half of 2021 will be difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of the year. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate of 21% under the optimistic scenario, 15% under the neutral scenario, and 10% under the pessimistic scenario (the probability is low). In terms of structure, it fell quarter by quarter from high to low.4.1. In the second half of the year, the base number increased, and the export growth rate declined quarter by quarterStarting from the third quarter of 2020, due to the good control of the epidemic, China took the lead in resuming production. The substitution effect led to outstanding export performance in the second half of the year, and the corresponding high base will significantly suppress the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the second half of 2021.In June 2020, China's total exports increased by 0% year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth jumped to 7% in July, and then further accelerated, with year-on-year growth rates reaching 21% and 18% in November and December respectively. Under the influence of such a high base, it is difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate of total exports in the first half of the year in the third and fourth quarters of this year. From the data point of view, even assuming that the compound growth rate of 13% from the first quarter to 2019 is maintained in the second half of the year, then exports in the third and fourth quarters will naturally fall sharply from 49% in the first quarter to 18% and 9% respectively.Therefore, the impact of base effect plays a leading role in the performance of export growth in the second half of the year, and the quarter-by-quarter decline in export growth will be certain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1d22021064dcebd4046226dcda9b31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2. The global demand side improves to offset the attenuation of the substitution effect on the supply side4.2. 1. The improved demand brought about by the recovery of the global economy is the core fundamental of exports in the second half of the yearAs a major industrial country in the world, China is an extremely important link in the global industrial chain. Therefore, in all previous global economic recovery processes, China's export performance has been very impressive.From the data point of view, there is a strong correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of China's total exports and the year-on-year growth rate of OECD's real GDP in terms of general trends and inflection points, which also confirms that China's export performance is often not weak against the background of improving global demand.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3ced1b7ac0ff4947eb27d1bd5ddac0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although there are still epidemic disturbances and the global economic recovery is still uneven, from the perspective of developed countries and the whole world, the trend of economic recovery is already very obvious, and with the vaccination, the global economy will continue to improve, and the general trend will remain unchanged.From the data point of view, the current OECD comprehensive leading indicator has exceeded 100 since March 2021 and continues to expand, reflecting that global economic growth will remain strong in the next six months. At the same time, as of June 30, the spot price of WTI crude oil reached 73.47, and the Baltic Dry Index reached 3383. Oil prices and freight rates of upstream raw materials continue to hit new highs, which also points to the current vigorous development of global industry to a certain extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d13fbeded00fb3b82d716631f16a4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Therefore, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports have not deteriorated, and the supporting logic of exports has undergone certain changes. It has gradually transformed from the previous supply-side production substitution to the global demand-side driving China's exports.In addition, from the perspective of China's export structure, the projects that have most obviously driven export growth since 2021 are midstream raw materials and midstream machinery and equipment for industrial production, which also confirms our view of logical transformation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eae02878cb8557e5316f72bbb013adb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2. 2. Demand-side pull can greatly offset the impact of weakening production substitution effectsThe global economic recovery in the second half of the year will become China's core export fundamentals.First of all, the rise of global demand has a direct pulling effect on China's exports; Secondly, this newly released marginal increase in demand will largely offset the restored supply of overseas economies, thereby weakening the attenuation of the substitution effect brought by the recovery of overseas supply to China. From the data point of view, against the background of negative growth of total global exports in 2019, China's exports accounted for only 13% to 14%. In March and April 2021, total global exports rose sharply by 26% and 47% year-on-year respectively, compared with the compound growth rate of 7% and 5% in 2019. During this period, China's global export share dropped to about 15%. At the same time, in the past year, the EU's export share with better vaccination has only fluctuated slightly around 13%, while the ASEAN's export share as a whole has shown a slow decline.Therefore, the recovery of the global demand side has largely offset the decline of the production substitution effect. The impact of the decline of the production substitution effect is limited, and exports will remain boom in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d28986b8a44c7f635473f89a95ee3c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.3. Exports of vaccines and medicines remain resilient in the second half of the yearAs of May 2021, among China's export commodities, biotechnology (vaccines, etc.), pharmaceutical materials and pharmaceuticals increased by 1240% and 99% year-on-year respectively, and the monthly pull rates to China's 28% export growth rate were 5.7% and 1.8% respectively. At present, Europe is still affected by mutated viruses, while the epidemic is breaking out in emerging economies such as Southeast Asia. Due to insufficient vaccine supply, the vaccination rate in emerging economies is still generally below 10%, and the demand for Chinese vaccines and medicines is still large. At the same time, as of June 30, 2021, China has vaccinated 1.24 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine. As China's demand for vaccines gradually declines, a large amount of vaccine production capacity can be used to supply exports. Therefore, in the second half of the year, biotechnology-related commodities (vaccines, etc.) Exports will most likely maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 100%, while exports of pharmaceutical materials and medicines will maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 50%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e12f84203c45f523ab68840b30d347\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.4. Disturbances from poor shipping will be significantly alleviated in the third and fourth quartersPoor shipping was one of the important factors affecting China's import and export before. The main reasons for the current poor shipping come from: 1. Labor shortage caused by the epidemic; 2. Shortage of containers in China caused by inefficient container turnover.Looking forward to the second half of the year, problems such as the shortage of shipping and port labor force caused by the epidemic will be alleviated with vaccination and the recovery of the job market; The shortage of containers will be solved with the mass production of containers and the acceleration of turnover efficiency. Therefore, the drag on transportation efficiency caused by poor shipping will improve significantly in the third and fourth quarters.The labor shortage that causes poor shipping comes from two aspects. On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic and large-scale fiscal stimulus, many workers receiving unemployment benefits choose to stay at home, resulting in port workers and freight drivers being unable to receive timely supplementation. However, the current complete vaccination rate in the United States has reached 46%. With the cessation of unemployment benefits in the United States and the further popularization of vaccines, the shortage of port labor is expected to be alleviated in the second half of the year. On the other hand, there is a labor shortage of seafarers. According to relevant data from the International Chamber of Shipping, there are about 1.647 million seafarers on international trade merchant ships around the world, 15% of which are from India. After the second wave of the epidemic broke out in India, ports in many countries around the world began to refuse to enter the port for ships carrying Indian seafarers or passing through India, which increases the difficulty of seafarer rotation. The data shows that the peak of the epidemic in India has passed, and the process of seafarer rotation will gradually return to normal.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cec5ab618eeea4134b5c3e08e193cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The recovery of port and seafarer labor force will increase port capacity, thus alleviating the problem of container accumulation in important ports. In addition, Chinese container manufacturers are also increasing production. In the past five months, China's container exports have remained above 150% year-on-year. The replenishment of new containers and the faster return of empty containers to Asia after increased capacity will gradually improve the current situation. transportation efficiency.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64562eac54896c0614497d1dc697d8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 5: Can manufacturing investment continue to recover?From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are more willing to increase investment this year; From the perspective of capacity utilization, the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized, while the overseas demand side is still strengthening; From the perspective of funds, both endogenous and external financing of enterprises are guaranteed this year, and enterprises have the ability to make additional investments. On the whole, the manufacturing industry is still on the upward channel in the second half of 2021, and the year-on-year growth rate for the whole year is expected to be around 10%, with a compound year-on-year growth of 3.7% for 2019.5.1. The manufacturing industry is still on an upward trend in the second half of the yearFrom the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are relatively optimistic about the future recovery of the manufacturing industry, and enterprises are willing to increase investment.The entrepreneur confidence index, which is of leading significance to manufacturing investment, has been rising rapidly since bottoming out in the first quarter of last year, reaching a record high of 144.7 in the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, the manufacturing loan demand index also reached 72.2, a high in the past 10 years., and in the third and fourth quarters, as the prices of bulk commodities are controlled, profit expectations are expected to further improve. Therefore, on the overall profit side, manufacturing investment will remain prosperous this year. At the same time, as of May 2021, the profits of industrial enterprises were as high as 36.4% year-on-year in that month, and the compound year-on-year in 2019 was 20.2%. The high profit growth rate has also boosted entrepreneurs' confidence and strengthened entrepreneurs' willingness to actively invest and expand production.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37de818741ccf56c9f7b05c99c1bb23e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of capacity utilization, the current industrial capacity utilization rate is still at a historically high level, and the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized. Against the background of the improvement in the demand side of the global economic recovery, there is a need for additional manufacturing investment in the second half of the year. The demand exists objectively。 In the first quarter of 2021, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, which has declined compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but is still at a high level in the past 10 years. In addition, as of May 2021, among the completed fixed asset investment, the cumulative amount of new projects was 15.6% year-on-year, and the compound growth rate was 4% year-on-year. The compound growth rate has steadily increased since 2021, and is higher than the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in each month of 2020. The compound growth rate of construction and installation projects in May was 5.6%, and the growth rate of construction and installation investment has risen steadily since 2020. The steady increase in new projects and construction and installation investment also confirms to a certain extent the objective existence of market demand for further increasing manufacturing investment in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e395be0d30b783afe5e367afa0cf3c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of financing situation, the capital side of enterprises is guaranteed this year, and enterprises have sufficient funds to make additional investment.In terms of external financing, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in April pointed out that the current economic recovery is still uneven and the foundation is still unstable. A prudent monetary policy must maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy, key areas, and weak links. Under this policy tone, the external financing of manufacturing enterprises is guaranteed. In terms of endogenous financing, manufacturing profits have stabilized and rebounded this year. In May, the total profits of industrial enterprises reached 829.9 billion yuan, which is at a historical high. The enhancement of endogenous funds can also strengthen the ability of enterprises to further invest.5.2. Structural aspects: medicine, computer communications, midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing leadIn 2021, the recovery of global production will become the main theme. Against the background of the improvement of overseas demand and the start of the active replenishment process, exports will become a key clue in my country's national economy. Typical export-dependent industries such as computer communications and machinery and equipment are facing better profit expectations; The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry related to the epidemic also has good fundamental support due to the lack of vaccine supply and repeated epidemics in emerging economies. From the data point of view, the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment completed in related industries in the past three months has indeed continued to improve marginally year-on-year, which further confirms that exports are an important clue for manufacturing investment this year.In terms of exports, medicines related to the epidemic this year, computer communications related to the stay-at-home economy and production substitution, and midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing related to production recovery are all expected to perform well, so corresponding industries will also lead this year's manufacturing investment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269be27e898b33f475b3552a98aea4e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 6: What is the rhythm of consumption recovery?In the recovery path after the epidemic, there has been a clear differentiation between China and overseas countries. China's epidemic prevention and control is proper, but the policy stimulus is less, so it presents a pattern of \"strong production and weak consumption\". Developed countries have failed to control the epidemic and resume work and production, but the scale of fiscal stimulus is huge, showing a situation of \"weak production and strong consumption\". We believe that with the increase of residents' income and the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, China's consumption will continue to recover, but due to the long tail effect brought about by the epidemic, the recovery rate of consumption may still be slow.6.1. The restriction of residents' income on consumption will gradually easeFrom a total perspective, there are two reasons for the slow recovery of China's consumption: First, the economic recession after the epidemic has led to a significant decline in the income level of Chinese residents and a decline in spending power.We measure the per capita disposable income of urban residents by the two-year year-on-year. Until the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of residents' income was far behind that before the epidemic, thus limiting spending power. But this also reflects that there is still a lot of room for residents' consumption recovery.We believe that residents' income will increase steadily with the gradual recovery of the economy, and this factor will not become a long-term reason for restricting consumption.Second, the epidemic has led to a decline in residents' willingness to consume。 The ratio of household consumption expenditure to income dropped to the lowest point after the epidemic. In the first quarter of this year, the ratio of consumption to income dropped again. We believe that the policy of celebrating the New Year on the spot this year has greatly interfered with this. However, the data also reflects that the epidemic still has a greater impact on residents' willingness to consume. In addition, the increase of residents' precautionary savings in the post-epidemic era is also an important reason for suppressing consumption. As the impact of the epidemic gradually fades,These factors will eventually subside, but the change of residents' willingness to consume, especially their willingness to save, will take a long time to reverse, so the recovery of consumption in the future will still be a relatively slow process.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127dcf5d427b0e33b7f3724e15a9ee78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6.2. The consumption structure will gradually become balancedStructurally, catering and travel-related consumption is still suppressed; In particular, consumption below the limit is very bleak. As an industry accounting for more than 10% of the total social retail sales, the recovery of the catering industry lags far behind the average level. However, it is worth noting that the total catering income of enterprises above designated size has fully recovered, even higher than the pre-epidemic level. We believe this reflects two problems:First, due to the impact of the epidemic, residents' willingness to go out for dining is still low, which is confirmed by the low growth rate of total catering revenue. Second, during the epidemic, many small enterprises may have closed down, resulting in their consumption being partially replaced by enterprises above designated size. However, the collapse of a large number of small businesses will lead to the lack of many consumption scenarios, so this will also affect the total consumption. It will take relatively longer for small businesses to return to the market, so the recovery of consumption recovery will also be relatively slow。The recovery of consumption related to going out lags behind other industries, such as clothing consumption and oil consumption. Due to the decrease of residents' willingness to travel after the epidemic, the growth of oil consumption is still weak even under the ultra-low base last year. However, it can also be seen that these industries are improving marginally, and the growth rate is increasing rapidly. With the easing of the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of industries related to going out will be recovered quickly.The consumption structure will become more balanced.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f2c07eb6f66cb736dc66dec354315c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose?We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, the PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.7.1. The \"Delta\" virus is an uncertain factor affecting monetary policyAt present, the global epidemic prevention and control is facing new variables. The \"Delta\" mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc around the world. Starting from South Asia, it has quickly caused serious impact on some countries in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Europe and the United States. Since the current vaccine is still protective against the virus, and the accessibility of vaccines in European and American countries is much higher than that in developing countries, the mutated virus has not yet had a serious impact on the epidemic prevention and control in developed countries. Recently, a new round of local epidemic spread in China in Guangdong has also been brought under control, and there have been no new local cases in Guangdong for more than 10 consecutive days.To sum up, we expect that in the second half of the year, with the further advancement of global vaccination, it is unlikely that there will be another large-scale outbreak of the epidemic in major economies. The following analysis of monetary policy outlook is based on the judgment of steady economic recovery under the background of continued control of the epidemic. However, we do not rule out the tail risk that the mutated virus will shut down the world's major economies again.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1799088e020e7129be96a6f21f0a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.2. The normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will drive a coordinated global responseAs we mentioned above, it is a high probability event that the normalization of U.S. monetary policy in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate. Against this background, some emerging economies have begun to take action this year to advance rate hikeFor example, the Brazilian central bank conducted two rate hike in March and May, with a total increase of 150 basis points; The Russian Central Bank held two rate hike in March and April, with a total increase of 75 basis points; Turkey raised by 200 basis points in March; The governor of the Bank of Korea also publicly stated that he would raise interest rates at the end of the year.We believe that this round of rate hike for some emerging economies is a comprehensive consideration of high inflation and the risk of dealing with the Federal Reserve's future monetary normalization, and is also in line with historical experience。 Many views in the market believe that rate hike, an emerging economy, is mainly dealing with high inflation, but high inflation itself is the combined result of the contradiction between supply and demand superimposed on global liquidity easing. From purely economic considerations, the economies of many emerging countries have not yet fully recovered. It seems that monetary policy should pay more attention to the resumption of work, production and employment in the economy. The necessity of rate hike is not strong, and the extent should not be too large. This is in line with the current actions. The policy behavior of central banks in emerging economies is inconsistent. Judging from the historical rate hike experience of emerging economies, before the last round of the Fed's 2015 rate hike, emerging economies often prepared in advance, and the first rate hike was about one year ahead of the Fed. Against the background that the U.S. economy has recovered beyond expectations and the Federal Reserve's FMOC meeting is close to hawkish statements, the rate hike of emerging economies should not only be interpreted as a response to inflation risks, but also as a preparation for future Fed policy shifts.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922048f423e845f5dedb693a9a7bcae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.3. my country's monetary policy will remain firm in the second half of the year and it will be difficult to turn looseIn the second quarter, my country's monetary policy remained firm, the release and withdrawal of liquidity were basically the same, and the growth rate of social financing declined slowly. Based on the previous judgment on the economic situation in the second half of the year and the analysis of the following factors, we believe thatIn the second half of the year, China's monetary policy will continue to manage the general monetary gate, and will not turn to easing, so as to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. Although the total amount of monetary policy will not be further loosened, the effectiveness of monetary policy in structurally supporting the development of the real economy will not be reduced.According to the central bank's monetary policy implementation report in the first quarter, the next stage of monetary policy will not only manage the general gate, but also further play the driving role of refinancing, rediscounting and two structural monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy. This will still become an important focus for monetary policy support to promote the high-quality transformation and upgrading of the real economy at present and in the future.7.3. 1. Overall international monetary policy coordination remains in placeChina's monetary policy follows the inside-out principle, with me as the mainstay, but the expected change in the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has an impact on China's policy。 From the historical experience, in order to cope with the sharp downside risk of the economy, during the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2015, the People's Bank of China launched several rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the monetary policy was obviously loose. However, two months before the Federal Reserve launched the rate hike, the People's Bank of China also stopped cutting interest rates, and so far it has not adjusted the benchmark interest rate. Therefore, it is biased to think that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy does not affect China's policy at all. Judging from the statement of the central bank's regular meeting in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, the wording is also clearer to \"strengthen international macroeconomic policy coordination and prevent external shocks.\"The side effects of the last round of China's RRR cut and interest rate cut policy are also relatively large, so we should learn a lesson. China's stock market and housing prices in various tier cities have risen successively. Finally, the stock market bubble ended with a stock market crash, while the real estate bubble kept housing prices high. Monetary policy has limited support for the development of the real economy, and it also increases the difficulty of controlling the stability of housing prices in the later period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfb489607acf09757ee4df131807c32\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.3. 2. Looking at monetary policy objectives, there are not sufficient reasons for my country to turn to easing in the second half of the yearFirst, from the perspective of the price target of monetary policy, inflationary pressure in the second half of the year will be smaller than that in the first half of the year, but the PPI index will still be high, and it is not because prices fall can be loosened。 The current CPI is not high, and the PMI data released in June also verifies that the PPI has peaked with a high probability and will enter a downward channel in the future. Although the inflationary pressure is smaller than that in the first half of the year, the decline of PPI in the second half of the year is slow, and the inflation level will continue to consolidate at a high level for a period of time. The overall pressure is not small. Therefore, we do not think that if the inflationary pressure is small, monetary policy can be loose, just as the high price pressure in the first half of the year does not mean that money should be tight.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813e39446219c1c2e8da2f512e59c3cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, from the perspective of the economic and employment goals of monetary policy, our current employment remains prosperous, economic growth is recovering steadily and continuously, the demand for high-quality development is higher than the demand for high growth rate, and there is less pressure to stabilize growth and maintain employment.On the one hand, unlike in 2015, the current decision-making level's requirements for economic quality are higher than those for growth rate, and the money supply will not be relaxed due to a certain degree of downward pressure. On the other hand, at present, China's economic recovery is still relatively stable, and the demand for easing is not strong. In terms of unemployment rate, the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been declining in recent months, recording 5% in May, which is even lower than the level before the outbreak of the epidemic. The results of maintaining employment are remarkable and the pressure has been significantly reduced. From the perspective of economic growth, GDP growth has recovered rapidly since the first quarter, reaching 18.3% year-on-year, and 10.25% year-on-year based on 2019, indicating a strong recovery of economic vitality. GDP in the second quarter is expected to reach 8.6% year-on-year, and the World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in June. In the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth of GDP will inevitably decline due to the high base, but it is likely to be better than expected. The decline in exports is expected to be limited. Consumption will fluctuate due to the epidemic, but the recovery trend remains unchanged. Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a strong growth trend.Third, from the perspective of the deleveraging target of monetary policy, we expect that the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, no longer decline, and will remain at a high level。 The leverage ratio in the first quarter of this year dropped to 267.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but it was mainly due to the base effect of GDP in the first quarter. According to our calculations, the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, and the macro leverage ratio will be stable at a high level. Controlling the growth rate of overall leverage has become a new topic of macro policy. In the second half of the year, economic development will slow down year-on-year, but the resilience is sufficient, and monetary policy does not need to release water to further push up macro leverage.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a647f7ed7af4bafa0a48d92a602f447\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Fourthly, judging from the goal that the RMB exchange rate is basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, there is little pressure on the strong trend of RMB appreciation during the year.There was a significant appreciation of the RMB in April. Since the end of May, especially after the Federal Reserve released its hawkish attitude, the US dollar has rebounded and the RMB exchange rate has also corrected slightly. We expect that the RMB will oscillate in both directions with a high probability in the second half of the year, which has weak indicative significance for monetary policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28b52ed2f31a7129d3b716d81a42349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.3. 3. The current monetary volume, price and credit are at a desirable levelFirst, judging from the price indicators of monetary policy, the policy interest rate has been at the lowest level in the past ten years, and there is basically no room for further easing.As the policy interest rate, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has been reduced by 2.2% since the epidemic last year, which is the lowest level in the past ten years. There is currently no room for downward adjustment. Market expectations for policy interest rate cuts are also relatively low.Secondly, judging from the quantitative indicators of monetary policy, recent liquidity operations are mainly based on maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The release and recovery of liquidity are basically flat, and the market capital interest rate has remained stable.In the second quarter, the total net investment of the central bank's open market operations was less than 100 billion yuan, most of which increased in response to the tightening liquidity in June. Generally speaking, it can be considered that the withdrawal of money in the second quarter was basically flat, and DR001 and DR007 remained basically stable, indicating that inter-bank funds are basically abundant. In other words, reasonable and sufficient liquidity can be achieved if the funds are not loose or tight.Third, from the perspective of credit, it is the policy goal that the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically matches nominal GDP, and there is no need to turn to easing at present。 This year's government work report clearly stated that the growth rate of money supply and social financing should basically match the nominal economic growth rate. As can be seen from the figure below, both the quarterly growth indicator of nominal GDP and the proxy variable of GDP growth rate-the growth rate of industrial added value (month-on-month) basically match the scale of social financing. In recent months, the growth rate of social financing has gradually dropped from 13% at the beginning of the year to 11%. At present, we still maintain the forecast since the end of last year, and the overall growth rate of social financing scale this year will drop to 10%-11%. In May, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.3%, and it may rebound slightly in the second half of the year as the base decreases. If combined with the growth rate of social financing, it can basically match the nominal GDP growth of the whole year.All in all, we analyze from multiple angles and find that the reasons for China's monetary policy to turn loose in the second half of the year are not very sufficient. We should pay attention to this expected risk in the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0fcd468071754dfae9d7988189d490\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89011c80601ef57229f6e7a97dfb7f7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 8: What are the short-term and long-term trends of RMB exchange rate?The RMB exchange rate has experienced ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that the RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, the RMB still has a strong fundamental foundation for appreciation.8.1. The RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but will not enter a depreciation cycleLooking back at the trend of exchange rates in various countries since last year, the epidemic is the core influencing factor, and so is the RMB exchange rate.The epidemic first broke out in China in February last year, and the RMB depreciated. The outbreak of overseas epidemics in March caused a liquidity crisis of the US dollar. All non-US currencies collectively depreciated, and the RMB fell against the US dollar. As the liquidity crisis eased in May, China took the lead in getting out of the predicament of the epidemic, and the economy recovered rapidly. The RMB entered a process of appreciation for more than half a year. At the beginning of this year, the large-scale epidemic in the autumn and winter of the United States began to ease, and the popularization of vaccines accelerated, the US dollar strengthened, and the RMB passively depreciated. After April, vaccination in the United States slowed down, while vaccine popularization in Europe accelerated, coupled with the impact of lower-than-expected non-agricultural data, the US dollar weakened against the euro, and the RMB also indirectly strengthened against the US dollar. The appreciation of RMB accelerated in late May. After June, with the central bank's regulation and the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve, the RMB pulled back against the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f1257f5077fb29f8243dc55787cd2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since April, the RMB has experienced a relatively large appreciation, and the speed is too fast. We believe that there will be adjustment pressure in the short term.First of all, the RMB has appreciated faster than the fundamental basis.Compared with last year, when China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and recovered strongly, the second and third quarters of this year were the stages when the relative advantage of the US economy was more obvious. The substantial and rapid appreciation of the RMB at this stage was divorced from the economic fundamentals.Secondly, judging from the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always avoided excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, because this will affect the stability of the financial system and the trading system。 In late May, some central bank officials' remarks in support of RMB appreciation ignited the market's expectation of RMB appreciation, leading to the rapid appreciation of RMB, in which there were a lot of speculative factors. Therefore, the central bank immediately expressed its position to curb the excessive fluctuation of RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d382e08354897d8186f000124ee533c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, we believe that the RMB will not depreciate significantly or even enter a depreciation cycle.Judging from the experience since the \"811\" exchange rate reform in 2015, the central bank's regulation of the RMB exchange rate is counter-cyclical, and there is no clear intention to guide the appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rate, but only to restrain the excessive fluctuation of the RMB. From the effect point of view, the central bank's control will only have a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate, and it is difficult to affect the general trend. The ultimate turning point of RMB exchange rate lies in the fundamentals of economic and monetary policy.Therefore, although the central bank intervened in the exchange rate this time, it was difficult to reverse the trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ee472c0f99e668e3bad7a6e4c3891e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition, from the perspective of international relations, China is currently facing greater pressure from the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, and needs to import substantially to fulfill its commitments to the United States, which objectively requires that the RMB exchange rate should remain strong to promote imports. In the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, China needs to increase imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products and energy products (trade in services is not easy to count and will not be discussed for the time being) by a total of 77.7 billion dollars, 32 billion dollars and 52.4 billion dollars in two years on the basis of 2017. According to US-based trade data, China's imports from the United States only increased by US $2.11 billion, US $4.52 billion and US $2.09 billion in 2020.Therefore, if the first phase of the agreement is to be completed, China will need to increase imports in these three areas by a total of 153.4 billion dollars this year。 If the two-year target needs to be reached, it needs to achieve growth rates of 149.87%, 131.33% and 657.69% respectively. Even if we do not consider filling last year's gap, the increase in 2021 compared with 2017 needs to reach 88.82%, 93.18% and 443.16% respectively.So far this year, the completion rate of commitments is still not high, and the pressure is high.Judging from the attitudes of China and the United States, both have a strong willingness to complete the first phase of the agreement. The United States even made it clear that this is one of the conditions for considering tariff reduction on China.Therefore, judging from the need to fulfill import commitments and maintain Sino-US relations, it is not suitable for RMB to depreciate significantly at this time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900194bce7a29531d5add4f40bc9217a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">8.2. There is a basis for continued appreciation of RMB in the medium and long termAlthough there is pressure to adjust the RMB in the second half of this year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the medium and long term, the fundamental foundation of RMB appreciation is still strong.From the perspective of long-term economic growth, China's economy is more stable in comparison.During the epidemic, major central banks around the world adopted flooding monetary and fiscal policies, and central bank balance sheets expanded rapidly. In contrast, China's monetary policy is very restrained, and the highest point of year-on-year growth rate of M2 is only comparable to the lowest point before 2016. The strength of fiscal policy is also limited. Without strong stimulus, there will be less pressure to withdraw policies in the future. In fact, China's monetary and fiscal policies have basically returned to the normal track this year, while other major economies will face the painful period of policy withdrawal. In contrast, China's economic growth will be more stable in the future, which will also enhance the attractiveness of the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefad97bcd9ab878e1ff7e172471c07e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of inflation, after a lot of analysis, the results show that there is an obvious inverse relationship between inflation and exchange rate in various countries. Exchange rate depreciation will cause inflation to rise, behind which is the impact of imported inflation; Rising inflation will also cause exchange rate depreciation, behind which is the principle of purchasing power parity. As mentioned above, we believe that the long-term inflation center in developed countries will rise, while the inflationary pressure in China will be relatively small. The United States has triggered across-the-board inflation due to cash subsidies, overheated real estate, recovering services and rising energy prices, whileChina's CPI is at a very low level, which helps to maintain the purchasing power of RMB, thus supporting the exchange rate.From the perspective of monetary policy, unlike the RMB depreciation cycle in 2014-2016, although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is currently on the way to normalization, China's monetary policy is also \"turning\". The two are in the same direction, rather than the situation that the United States tightened and China released water in 2014-2016. SoThe normalization of China's monetary policy will partially offset the pressure on the yuan exchange rate caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fcfff58b1aa6db4e9133752587b55d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Risk warning: The global epidemic is spreading again, and policies are tightened too quickly.","source":"lsy1601172882827","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eight major macroeconomic outlooks for the second half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEight major macroeconomic outlooks for the second half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n东北宏观by凤来仪2021-07-08 10:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary of the reportOutlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong? We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.Outlook 2: Will the future be great inflation or great deflation? We believe that neither the foundation for great inflation nor great deflation is in place. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to experience sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will fall slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.Outlook 3: What will be the pace of the Fed's monetary policy? With the economic recovery and rising inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The U.S. dollar will receive short-term support, and there will also be upward pressure on the long-term yield of U.S. bonds.Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year? Under the drag of the high base, China's exports in the second half of 2021 will be difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of the year. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate of 21% under the optimistic scenario, 15% under the neutral scenario, and 10% under the pessimistic scenario (the probability is low). In terms of structure, it fell quarter by quarter from high to low.Outlook 5: Can manufacturing investment continue to recover? We believe that the manufacturing industry is still on an upward channel in the second half of 2021, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate for the whole year will be around 10%, with a compound year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% for 2019.Outlook 6: What is the rhythm of consumption recovery? We believe that with the increase of residents' income and the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, China's consumption will continue to recover, but due to the long tail effect brought about by the epidemic, the recovery rate of consumption may still be slow.Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose? We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, the PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.Outlook 8: What are the short-term and long-term trends of RMB exchange rate? The RMB exchange rate has experienced ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that the RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, the RMB still has a strong fundamental foundation for appreciation.Risk warning: The global epidemic is spreading again, and policies are tightened too quickly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931b5fe6815d0ec3a09e2b5950ce27b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dd156d2336c7b25eafe76957fce943\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Report textOutlook 1: Can the U.S. economy continue to be strong?We believe that the U.S. economy will have obvious comparative advantages in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the long run, the prosperity brought by helicopter money is unsustainable.1.1. The United States may have a comparative advantage in epidemic controlSince the outbreak of the global epidemic, the primary factor that determines the speed of economic recovery in various countries is the epidemic control. China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, resumed work and production smoothly, and restarted its economy, becoming the only country among major economies to achieve positive growth in 2020. In other countries, the epidemic situation has rebounded on a large scale, and the economy has never been able to fully open up. Countries that can take the lead in epidemic prevention and control will undoubtedly gain huge comparative advantages.For overseas countries, vaccine penetration rate and vaccine effectiveness are the keys to successful epidemic prevention and control.Developed countries have inherent advantages in the popularization of vaccines。 European and American countries are producers of many kinds of vaccines and monopolize the production of most vaccines. Most emerging economies have difficulty obtaining vaccines in a short time. Therefore, the recent epidemic prevention and control situation in developed countries is generally better than that in developing countries. At present, although the popularization of vaccines in the United States has slowed down, the number of new cases has continued to decline, reflecting that vaccine popularization has indeed played an obvious role in epidemic prevention and control. Moreover, most of the people who refuse to be vaccinated in the United States are young people and are more immune to Novel Coronavirus, so the slowdown in vaccine popularization has not caused a rebound in the epidemic.From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, there are currently three major COVID-19 vaccine in the world: mRNA vaccines, represented by Pfizer-Moderna vaccines; Adenovirus vector vaccines, represented by the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine; Inactivated vaccines, represented by Chinese vaccines. We selected the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Chile, several countries with high vaccine penetration rates for analysis. Among them, the vaccines vaccinated in the United States and Canada are mainly mRNA vaccines; The vaccines vaccinated in the UK are mainly adenovirus vector vaccine and mRNA vaccine; The vaccines vaccinated in Chile are mainly inactivated vaccines.From the perspective of epidemic control, the average number of new cases in the United States has steadily declined on the 7th day, and the epidemic situation in Canada has also been well controlled. The epidemic situation in the UK has rebounded significantly recently. Some medical experts said that most of the new cases in the UK are Novel Coronavirus's variant Delta virus, and the adenovirus vector vaccine is not effective in preventing and controlling Delta virus. The epidemic situation in Chile has begun to decline since June, but at a slower rate than that in the United States and Canada. At present, there is no conclusion on the effectiveness of several COVID-19 vaccine in medicine, butFrom the data point of view, it seems that mRNA vaccines have more advantages in epidemic prevention and control in the short term.We analyzed more sample countries, mostly in line with this conclusion, so we will not list them all here.Vaccination in the United States is dominated by mRNA vaccines. Correspondingly, European countries have vaccinated a large number of adenovirus vector vaccines. Japan's vaccination rate is still low so far, only comparable to the world average. The progress of vaccination in emerging markets is generally lagging behind. Therefore, in the second half of this year, the United States may have certain comparative advantages in epidemic prevention and control, and it is expected to control the epidemic first and achieve full economic opening.Our basic assumption is that the third quarter will be the time when the epidemic situation in the United States is under control and the economy is completely open. This is a necessary condition for the U.S. economy to continue its strong recovery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39792febaa47d2b1bfc4dc728bcee55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4d9caa31c3f569736754d4de6ec948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1.2. U.S. job market is expected to accelerate recoveryU.S. non-farm payrolls data in April and May fell short of expectations, which was also an important factor that previously suppressed the U.S. dollar, U.S. bond yields and hindered the normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, we believe that the slowdown in U.S. employment is temporary, and the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter.There are three main factors that led to the U.S. employment data falling short of expectations in April and May:First, the U.S. government's cash subsidies and unemployment benefits to residents reduce the urgency of the unemployed to find jobs.Some survey results show that compared with before the epidemic, the proportion of American residents looking for jobs due to \"economic pressure\" is lower recently. Many unemployed people prefer to lie at home and receive financial subsidies. Republican states generally plan to end unemployment benefits earlier, while Democratic states will withdraw later. Correspondingly, after the epidemic, the unemployment rate of Republican red states is also significantly lower than that of Democratic blue states.Second, the epidemic still affects some people's willingness to go out to work.Although many Americans don't care about Novel Coronavirus and don't pay attention to prevention and control. But many people are very cautious about this. According to the data of ZipRecruiter, an American job search website, more than half of job seekers want to work remotely, but only 10% of employers will offer remote jobs, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand. Only after the epidemic is fully controlled can this problem be effectively alleviated.Third, due to the blockade of many schools and educational institutions during the epidemic, the demand of children's parents to take care of their children at home has increased, making it difficult to go out to work.Relevant surveys in the United States show that the rate of parents with younger children returning to work is significantly lower than the average level.Obviously, the root cause of the above three reasons lies in the epidemic and related impacts, and they are all short-term factors. These factors are expected to ease in the third quarter.First of all, many states in the United States already plan to end unemployment benefits early. According to the current plan of each state, half of the states will end unemployment benefits before July 10th, which will prompt more people to go out to look for job opportunities. Secondly, we believe that the epidemic situation in the United States will continue to ease in the third quarter, the economy is expected to fully open up, and the number of people who do not look for jobs due to concerns about the epidemic will also be greatly reduced. Thirdly, with the reopening of schools and educational institutions in the third quarter, the need for parents to take care of their children at home will also decrease, prompting this group to go out to work. So,We believe that the U.S. job market will rebound significantly in the third quarter, and the unexpected growth in non-farm payrolls in June has begun to reflect this trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58f8442dab0b284161f2612523309e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1.3. U.S. manufacturing inventory replenishment has not yet ended, and the real estate market remains resilientWe believe that the manufacturing inventory replenishment cycle brought about by the recovery of U.S. production has not yet ended, and will continue to boost the economy in the third quarter, and may even last until the end of the year.We compared the experience of four typical inventory replenishment cycles in the United States since 2000, namely, the inventory replenishment after the Internet bubble, the inventory replenishment after the financial crisis, the global resonance inventory replenishment in 2016 and the inventory replenishment cycle after this COVID-19 pandemic. As shown in the figure below, taking the lowest point of inventory year-on-year in each cycle as the origin, the inventory replenishment stage usually lasts for more than 12 months, and the longest can be about 24 months. The process of inventory replenishment in this cycle is faster than in the past, but the trend of inventory replenishment by wholesalers and retailers is obviously not over yet. Although manufacturers' inventory replenishment has risen and fallen, we think it may be due to incomplete resumption of work and production. With the further recovery of the production side, manufacturers' inventory replenishment is also expected to continue.However, judging from the trend comparison, it is difficult for the U.S. inventory replenishment cycle to maintain a strong momentum next year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99bcd2f1cba429c11596628ae176f5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8796a17bea0a86c6a861e479c808fe0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The U.S. housing market is beginning to show signs of cooling.Rising building costs have sharply pushed up home prices, while mortgage rates in the United States have also started to rise at the beginning of this year, which has limited residents' ability to buy houses. Coupled with the shortage of housing inventory, home sales have begun to decline.However, housing construction spending will remain resilient.On the one hand, although U.S. housing sales have cooled down, we do not expect them to fall back quickly, because the absolute level of interest rates is still not high, and new houses joining the market will meet the demand that could not be released due to insufficient inventory before. On the other hand, the demand for real estate inventory replenishment in the United States is still there, and the cycle of housing construction expenditure lags behind the sales cycle, so the pull on the economy still exists.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310c2e08fe5bf881869d7ae1213bcf12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ad630361b2100f50ea4cbf00853d0c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1.4. Services will recover strongly as the economy opens upSince the outbreak of the epidemic, strong fiscal stimulus policies have brought about a V-shaped rebound in commodity consumption, even far stronger than before the epidemic. However, the service industry dropped to freezing point due to the economic lockdown, and the recovery rate has been slower since then.According to the government blockade index compiled by Oxford University, due to the impact of the epidemic, the degree of blockade in the United States is still high, which restricts the recovery of the service industry. In the third quarter, as the epidemic was brought under control and the economy was completely opened up, there was a lot of room for the service industry to recover. From the perspective of employment situation, there is still a big gap in the number of employed people in related industries of the service industry compared with before the epidemic, and there is great potential.At the same time, we believe that service consumption and commodity consumption are expected to promote each other rather than crowd out each other. At present, the income of American residents is still much higher than before the epidemic, and the savings level is also significantly higher than before the epidemic, so residents' spending power is fully guaranteed. What restricts consumption is not budget constraints, but consumption scenarios lacking service industry.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a5bbd1f8270031c49e665da2e3524\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504e7380fbc42e157bcf824cb509ea2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Based on the above reasons, we believe that the United States will have a comparative advantage in epidemic prevention and control in the third quarter, the job market is expected to accelerate its recovery, the manufacturing and real estate industries are resilient, and the service industry will recover strongly. Therefore, the performance of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, will remain impressive.But in the long run,The source of this round of strong economic recovery in the United States is the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus far exceeding that of other countries. It is difficult for the United States to have a new bailout bill in the future, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also on the way to normalization. After next year, the United States will face the pain caused by policy withdrawal. Judging from the experience of several rounds of QE withdrawal in the United States after the financial crisis, the withdrawal of monetary policy will bring downward pressure on the economy. It can also be seen from the above discussion that the boom in manufacturing inventory replenishment and real estate will most likely end this year, soThe prosperity of the U.S. economy this year is unsustainable in the long run.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f34e2714dfc32ad29ba4f1cf2dbdf0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 2: Will the future be great inflation or great deflation?Inflation is one of the core global macroeconomic concerns this year. However, the market's view on inflation is more polarized. One view is that due to the widening gap between the rich and the poor and the restart of global trade, deflation will be a long-term trend; Another view is that due to unprecedented money release and insufficient supply, there will be a major inflation trend in the world in the future. We believe that neither the foundation for great inflation nor great deflation is in place. The future inflation center of developed countries will be higher than that of the previous decade, but it is difficult to experience sustained high inflation. In the second half of the year, China's PPI will fall slightly year-on-year but remain high, and the pressure on CPI is very small.2.1. The U.S. long-term inflation center will riseFrom a long-term perspective, although the recent high inflation prevailing around the world will eventually fall back, we do not think there will be a major deflationary environment, and the future inflation center will be higher than in the past decade, for the following two reasons:First, the huge amount of fiscal stimulus in this round is combined with monetary stimulus, which is different from the previous post-crisis stimulus mode based on monetary policy。 Mainly relying on monetary policy stimulus will cause a large amount of money to be stranded in the financial system and unable to flow into the real economy. As a result, the price of financial assets will rise sharply. Fiscal policy can effectively promote the inflow of money into the real economy, thereby pushing up real inflation. This year's global inflation that exceeded expectations is a reflection of the effect of fiscal policy.Another direct result of \"helicopter money\" is the shortage of labor market supply, and at the same time, it pushes up the wage level. The figure below shows the relationship between the average hourly wage of the U.S. commodity production sector and the U.S. CPI. It can be seen that whenWhen wage growth matches inflation, there is a sustained upward momentum for inflation, such as in the 1970s and 2001-2008. And when wage growth lags significantly behind inflation, inflation will rise weakly, such as in 1980-2000 and 2011-2016。 In fact, in recent years, wage levels in the United States have been rising continuously in the past two years, which is an important driving force for upward inflation. The U.S. CPI approached 3% several times year-on-year in 2017 and 2018. This trend has accelerated after the epidemic, and the ratio of wages to CPI has reached the level of the 1970s, which will also push inflation to continue to accelerate. Usually this trend cannot be ended in the short term. Although the current shortage of labor supply is largely due to short-term factors, it is undeniable that the decrease in labor participation rate and the changes in the economic structure brought about by the epidemic have also brought consequences to labor supply. With a long-term impact, the cycle of rising wages driving up inflation may continue for a long time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a697c3b3c73dcf5b49fe15d5a0597d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, deglobalization and manufacturing reshoring policies in developed countries will bring long-term inflationary pressures.A well-known reason for the low inflation in developed countries since 2000 is that the continuous development of global trade has led to the impact of cheap commodities in emerging economies on the commodity prices in developed countries, and the huge low-price supply in developing countries has made it impossible for developed countries to stimulate demand no matter how much they stimulate inflation. An obvious example is that after China's accession to WTO, the CPI of American commodities plunged rapidly, reflecting the low inflation effect brought by global trade.But this trend has been hindered and is even beginning to reverse. First, global trade has entered a bottleneck. In recent years, the global trade openness index has fluctuated and declined. Especially after populist governments in various countries came to power, globalization has encountered greater challenges, and the trend of cheap goods in emerging markets depressing inflation in developed countries has been blocked. Sino-US trade friction is a typical example. Second, developed countries have generally started the \"manufacturing reshoring\" plan. G7 countries take the lead in implementing the global lowest tax rate policy, which is intended to attract overseas tax avoidance companies to return to their countries. A series of current and future policy goals will be to increase the costs of multinational companies overseas. If multinational companies go to their own countries, they will also face higher labor costs. The long-term increase in costs will also promote the long-term upward trend of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094ef7547da65bd364b678370434c41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.2. Current macro conditions do not have the basis for big inflationAs mentioned above, we believe that the long-term inflation center of developed countries represented by the United States will rise. So will there be a big inflation similar to that in the 1970s? At present, the market's focus on inflation is mainly in the United States. From the perspective of the United States, we will discuss whether there is a basis for big inflation (the inflation rate remains above 5% for a long time).Looking back at the inflation history of the United States over the past century, we can see that there are three obvious periods of great inflation: the First World War, the Second World War, and the oil crisis in the 1970s. We believe that the basis of great inflation mainly includes the following points:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409a3fd3d49a628a29c7192588dcd8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">First, fiscal or monetary expansion leads to a large increase in money supply.Both World War I and World War II were the monetization of fiscal deficits caused by wars, and the money supply surged; Before the oil crisis, it was actually due to the Vietnam War that the money supply in the United States increased greatly, and M2 was even much higher year-on-year than during the period after the financial crisis. The essence of inflation is a monetary phenomenon. This economic law has not actually failed, but the premise is that the money circulating in the real economy increases.Second, monetary policy needs some room to stimulate long-term demand。 When the interest rate level is high and the monetary policy space is large, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts can effectively promote the circulation of money in the real economy; When the interest rate level is very low, monetary easing will easily fall into the liquidity trap, unable to push money into the real economy, and then idle in the financial system, resulting in the failure of monetary policy.Third, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations comes from the ambiguity of monetary policy objectives。 The common feature of the three major inflation periods seems to be the fault on the supply side, which is manifested by military production crowding out civilian production and the interruption of oil supply. But we think this is only the superficial reason, and the underlying reason lies in the rise in inflation expectations. The supply gap has pushed up inflation expectations. During the three major inflation periods, central banks of various countries did not have clear inflation targets. Instead, they repeatedly hovered between the economy and inflation, and never really tightened the currency, resulting in the market's sustained expectations of monetary easing. expectations, and ultimately inflation expectations and monetary easing expectations promote each other and become self-fulfilling.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42672c4a8cf5fef6457e23b4826177c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition, emerging economies may also lead to imported hyperinflation due to debt crisis and currency devaluation, but we only discuss large economies here, not considering this situation.Combining the above three major inflation bases, let's analyze the current situation. First of all, the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus is in line with this situation all over the world at present. The debt ratio of the U.S. government even exceeds that of World War II, and most other countries do the same. The global M2 soared and the money supply flooded. Secondly, there is some room for monetary policy. This is not satisfactory. At present, almost all developed countries have zero or negative interest rates. There is a large backlog of base money on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, and the characteristics of liquidity trap are obvious. Finally, the self-fulfillment of inflation expectations is difficult to achieve at present. Because central banks around the world have basically set clear inflation targets, which have played a very important and effective role in managing market expectations, the market no longer believes that central banks will ignore inflation and stimulate the economy. Although the Federal Reserve has changed the framework of inflation, it still has clear requirements for controlling inflation, which is completely different from the past period of great inflation. The restriction of monetary policy on inflation target makes it difficult for the market to have excessive inflation expectations.Based on the above points, we believe that the world currently does not have the basis for large inflation, and it is difficult to experience sustained excessive inflation.2.3. There is a high probability of a short-term commodity price correction, but the magnitude is expected to be limitedAfter discussing the long-term inflation outlook, we return to our judgment on the trend of inflation during the year. We believe that commodity prices have most likely peaked in the near future, and there may be a correction, thereby alleviating some inflationary pressures.First of all, global M2 growth has reached an inflection point, pointing to downward pressure on commodity prices.We calculated the M2 sum of G4 and BRIC countries year-on-year. This indicator is highly correlated with the RJ/CRB commodity price index year-on-year. It is leading most of the time and synchronized in a few periods. The leading period is mostly about half a year. This indicator peaked in February this year, and empirically speaking, there is correction pressure on the overall price of commodities.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b4fb0cfd10b291c36a468765dd3c3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Secondly, the gradual tightening signal released by the Federal Reserve and the price control of the Chinese government also help to reduce the speculation of commodities in the market。 According to recent data, copper, crude oil and other varieties that were previously concerned by market speculators have cooled down significantly. Commodity markets are returning to fundamentals.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230abe3b2dd81d1cb7cf51f72f77c3fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, we believe that the correction of commodity prices is limited, and it is difficult for prices to continue to fall.First of all, production in emerging markets is not recovering quickly, making it difficult to rapidly increase the supply of raw materials.Judging from the production index of various types of economies around the world compiled by the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Analysis, the production level of emerging economies excluding China has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level by the end of the first quarter, and the downward trend has reappeared at the end of the first quarter. With the popularization of vaccines in emerging markets generally lagging behind and the epidemic prevention and control situation poor, it is not known when the gap in raw material supply will be filled.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a071791a826fb3d84796b6132c88fabd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Secondly, while iron ore, copper, coal and other commodities have seen recent corrections, crude oil prices, the mother of commodities, have been rising。 International oil prices are highly correlated with China's coal, black, non-ferrous and other commodity prices. At present, oil prices are likely to remain high or even continue to rise in the third quarter, which will hinder the downward trend of overall inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0e1db3bf03d80169d25e4dc2bcc697\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Based on the above judgment, we believe that in the second half of the year, under the effect of a slight correction in commodity prices and a rising base, China's PPI will fall slightly year-on-year, but it will fluctuate at a high level, and there is a risk of exceeding expectations. However, the pressure on CPI to rise is very small. On the one hand, China's consumption recovery is stable, and there will be no surge on the demand side; On the other hand, the price of pork fell rapidly to a lower position, which greatly dragged down the growth rate of CPI.Outlook 3: What will be the pace of the Fed's monetary policy?With the economic recovery and rising inflation, we believe that the Fed's monetary policy may accelerate the pace of normalization in the short term, and it is imperative to reduce bond purchases, which will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. The U.S. dollar will receive short-term support, and there will also be upward pressure on the long-term yield of U.S. bonds.3.1. It is imperative for the Fed to reduce bond purchasesJudging from the objective market reaction, the current QE of the Federal Reserve has led to excess liquidity in the market, and the necessity of continuing to buy bonds is declining.The number of overnight reverse repurchases in the United States has climbed to historical highs, much higher than the situation in the late stages of previous rounds of QE. Different from China's reverse repurchase, the rise of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase means that the financial system deposits money into the Federal Reserve in exchange for bonds and other assets, that is, the market actively poures \"water\" back into the Federal Reserve, indicating that the market liquidity has been seriously excess. Even in order to maintain the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve had to raise the IOER and ONRRP interest rates by 5 basis points each at its June meeting to avoid excessive liquidity pushing short-term interest rates below zero. Various signs of excess liquidity point to the need for the Fed to speed up the process of tapering bond purchases.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f58b34942183221d6f435c8157d49c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judging from the subjective will of the Federal Reserve, the expected guidance for tapering bond purchases is also progressing steadily.Although the Federal Reserve meeting in June did not formally discuss tapering bond purchases, Powell pointed out that he is ready to discuss tapering bond purchases, which is a step forward compared with the previous argument of \"not discussing tapering bond purchases.\" We believe that the Fed's current round of tapering bond purchases will be roughly divided into five stages:Phase 1: No discussion of tapering bond purchases at all.Phase 2: Prepare to discuss tapering bond purchases.Phase 3: Formal discussion of tapering bond purchases.The fourth stage: announce the time plan for reducing bond purchases.The fifth stage: officially start to reduce bond purchases.This process fully reflects the communication between the Fed and the market. At present, the Federal Reserve has entered the second stage from the first stage. It is expected that the reduction of bond purchases will be formally discussed in July or August, and the time plan for the reduction of bond purchases may be announced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may be officially implemented at the end of this year or early next year.Another signal from the June Fed meeting was that the Fed no longer completely ignores inflation.Previously, when the CPI data rose more than expected, Fed officials would come forward to \"cool down\", emphasizing that inflation is a short-term factor and will not change the orientation of monetary policy. But at the June meeting, Powell pointed out that \"inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected,\" meaning the Fed has admitted that it may misjudge inflation. At the same time, it pointed out that \"if inflation expectations are too high, it will be ready to adjust policies.\" It shows that the Federal Reserve has not completely downplayed inflation, but has prepared policy responses at any time. As we mentioned earlier, the long-term inflation center in the United States will rise, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations in the short term, which will also prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of monetary policy normalization.3.2. The U.S. dollar will maintain short-term strength, and U.S. bond yields are expected to resume their upward trendSince the Fed has fully communicated with the market in this cycle and has successfully guided market expectations, we believe that the process of normalizing the Fed's monetary policy will not cause great disturbance to the market, and the stock market will not be significantly impacted. However, with the gradual fulfillment of tightening expectations, the exchange rate and bond market will change accordingly.We believe that under the expectation of Fed tightening, the US Dollar Index will maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but will not enter a strong dollar cycle.We mentioned in the first part that the U.S. economy should perform strongly in the third quarter and have a relatively large comparative advantage over other major economies, which is the fundamental basis for supporting the U.S. dollar. At the same time, we believe that the expectation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening will gradually heat up in the third quarter, which is the policy basis of the strong US dollar.However, in the long run, the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy does not necessarily lead to a strong cycle of the US dollar. Looking back at the experience of several rounds of QE in the United States after 2008, each QE withdrawal will bring short-term strength to the US dollar, but whether the momentum can be maintained still depends on whether the fundamentals of the US economy really improve. Although the U.S. dollar entered a strong cycle after the withdrawal of QE3, the larger background at that time was that the European debt crisis broke out again, and QE expectations in the euro zone continued to heat up and finally landed, passively pushing up the U.S. dollar. At present, judging from the Treasury Bond spread between several major debtor countries in Europe and Germany, the risk of European debt crisis has been greatly weakened. Although the normalization process of monetary policy in the euro zone is slower than that of the United States, it is difficult to reverse operation in 2014-2015. As mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. economy is likely to be at a relative disadvantage after next year, so it is difficult for the U.S. dollar to maintain its strong momentum in the long run.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe80f547be0f5209496be48045b52880\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/600a20ce3d5221aab6ee331aef941945\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the bond market, a more interesting phenomenon appeared after the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve in June: short-term interest rates rose rapidly, but long-term interest rates fell sharply, and the yield curve flattened. This reflects that the market currently has no doubts about the Fed's short-term acceleration of monetary policy tightening or even rate hike, but has no confidence in the long-term economy and inflation. This is partially consistent with our judgment logic on the US Dollar Index. The performance of the US dollar is more correlated with short-term interest rates in the United States, but it is not easy to maintain strength in the long run.However, we believe that the long-term interest rate in the third quarter still has a large upward risk.At present, a very important reason why the market is pessimistic about long-term growth is that the employment data is not impressive enough. Even if the non-farm employment data rose more than expected in June, the unemployment rate also rose abnormally, which cannot dispel market worries. At the same time, with the recent correction in commodity prices, inflation expectations have also declined. However, as mentioned above, we believe that the U.S. job market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the third quarter, and inflation is unlikely to fall soon, so long-term U.S. bond yields may continue to rise after a short correction.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187754d6a6aacc087ac4ee6d99bc3952\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 4: Will China's exports be poor in the second half of the year?Under the drag of the high base, China's exports in the second half of 2021 will be difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate in the first half of the year. However, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports will remain strong in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate of 21% under the optimistic scenario, 15% under the neutral scenario, and 10% under the pessimistic scenario (the probability is low). In terms of structure, it fell quarter by quarter from high to low.4.1. In the second half of the year, the base number increased, and the export growth rate declined quarter by quarterStarting from the third quarter of 2020, due to the good control of the epidemic, China took the lead in resuming production. The substitution effect led to outstanding export performance in the second half of the year, and the corresponding high base will significantly suppress the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the second half of 2021.In June 2020, China's total exports increased by 0% year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth jumped to 7% in July, and then further accelerated, with year-on-year growth rates reaching 21% and 18% in November and December respectively. Under the influence of such a high base, it is difficult to maintain the ultra-high year-on-year growth rate of total exports in the first half of the year in the third and fourth quarters of this year. From the data point of view, even assuming that the compound growth rate of 13% from the first quarter to 2019 is maintained in the second half of the year, then exports in the third and fourth quarters will naturally fall sharply from 49% in the first quarter to 18% and 9% respectively.Therefore, the impact of base effect plays a leading role in the performance of export growth in the second half of the year, and the quarter-by-quarter decline in export growth will be certain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b1d22021064dcebd4046226dcda9b31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2. The global demand side improves to offset the attenuation of the substitution effect on the supply side4.2. 1. The improved demand brought about by the recovery of the global economy is the core fundamental of exports in the second half of the yearAs a major industrial country in the world, China is an extremely important link in the global industrial chain. Therefore, in all previous global economic recovery processes, China's export performance has been very impressive.From the data point of view, there is a strong correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of China's total exports and the year-on-year growth rate of OECD's real GDP in terms of general trends and inflection points, which also confirms that China's export performance is often not weak against the background of improving global demand.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3ced1b7ac0ff4947eb27d1bd5ddac0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although there are still epidemic disturbances and the global economic recovery is still uneven, from the perspective of developed countries and the whole world, the trend of economic recovery is already very obvious, and with the vaccination, the global economy will continue to improve, and the general trend will remain unchanged.From the data point of view, the current OECD comprehensive leading indicator has exceeded 100 since March 2021 and continues to expand, reflecting that global economic growth will remain strong in the next six months. At the same time, as of June 30, the spot price of WTI crude oil reached 73.47, and the Baltic Dry Index reached 3383. Oil prices and freight rates of upstream raw materials continue to hit new highs, which also points to the current vigorous development of global industry to a certain extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d13fbeded00fb3b82d716631f16a4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Therefore, we believe that the fundamentals of China's exports have not deteriorated, and the supporting logic of exports has undergone certain changes. It has gradually transformed from the previous supply-side production substitution to the global demand-side driving China's exports.In addition, from the perspective of China's export structure, the projects that have most obviously driven export growth since 2021 are midstream raw materials and midstream machinery and equipment for industrial production, which also confirms our view of logical transformation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eae02878cb8557e5316f72bbb013adb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2. 2. Demand-side pull can greatly offset the impact of weakening production substitution effectsThe global economic recovery in the second half of the year will become China's core export fundamentals.First of all, the rise of global demand has a direct pulling effect on China's exports; Secondly, this newly released marginal increase in demand will largely offset the restored supply of overseas economies, thereby weakening the attenuation of the substitution effect brought by the recovery of overseas supply to China. From the data point of view, against the background of negative growth of total global exports in 2019, China's exports accounted for only 13% to 14%. In March and April 2021, total global exports rose sharply by 26% and 47% year-on-year respectively, compared with the compound growth rate of 7% and 5% in 2019. During this period, China's global export share dropped to about 15%. At the same time, in the past year, the EU's export share with better vaccination has only fluctuated slightly around 13%, while the ASEAN's export share as a whole has shown a slow decline.Therefore, the recovery of the global demand side has largely offset the decline of the production substitution effect. The impact of the decline of the production substitution effect is limited, and exports will remain boom in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d28986b8a44c7f635473f89a95ee3c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.3. Exports of vaccines and medicines remain resilient in the second half of the yearAs of May 2021, among China's export commodities, biotechnology (vaccines, etc.), pharmaceutical materials and pharmaceuticals increased by 1240% and 99% year-on-year respectively, and the monthly pull rates to China's 28% export growth rate were 5.7% and 1.8% respectively. At present, Europe is still affected by mutated viruses, while the epidemic is breaking out in emerging economies such as Southeast Asia. Due to insufficient vaccine supply, the vaccination rate in emerging economies is still generally below 10%, and the demand for Chinese vaccines and medicines is still large. At the same time, as of June 30, 2021, China has vaccinated 1.24 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine. As China's demand for vaccines gradually declines, a large amount of vaccine production capacity can be used to supply exports. Therefore, in the second half of the year, biotechnology-related commodities (vaccines, etc.) Exports will most likely maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 100%, while exports of pharmaceutical materials and medicines will maintain a compound year-on-year growth rate of at least 50%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e12f84203c45f523ab68840b30d347\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.4. Disturbances from poor shipping will be significantly alleviated in the third and fourth quartersPoor shipping was one of the important factors affecting China's import and export before. The main reasons for the current poor shipping come from: 1. Labor shortage caused by the epidemic; 2. Shortage of containers in China caused by inefficient container turnover.Looking forward to the second half of the year, problems such as the shortage of shipping and port labor force caused by the epidemic will be alleviated with vaccination and the recovery of the job market; The shortage of containers will be solved with the mass production of containers and the acceleration of turnover efficiency. Therefore, the drag on transportation efficiency caused by poor shipping will improve significantly in the third and fourth quarters.The labor shortage that causes poor shipping comes from two aspects. On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic and large-scale fiscal stimulus, many workers receiving unemployment benefits choose to stay at home, resulting in port workers and freight drivers being unable to receive timely supplementation. However, the current complete vaccination rate in the United States has reached 46%. With the cessation of unemployment benefits in the United States and the further popularization of vaccines, the shortage of port labor is expected to be alleviated in the second half of the year. On the other hand, there is a labor shortage of seafarers. According to relevant data from the International Chamber of Shipping, there are about 1.647 million seafarers on international trade merchant ships around the world, 15% of which are from India. After the second wave of the epidemic broke out in India, ports in many countries around the world began to refuse to enter the port for ships carrying Indian seafarers or passing through India, which increases the difficulty of seafarer rotation. The data shows that the peak of the epidemic in India has passed, and the process of seafarer rotation will gradually return to normal.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cec5ab618eeea4134b5c3e08e193cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The recovery of port and seafarer labor force will increase port capacity, thus alleviating the problem of container accumulation in important ports. In addition, Chinese container manufacturers are also increasing production. In the past five months, China's container exports have remained above 150% year-on-year. The replenishment of new containers and the faster return of empty containers to Asia after increased capacity will gradually improve the current situation. transportation efficiency.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64562eac54896c0614497d1dc697d8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 5: Can manufacturing investment continue to recover?From the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are more willing to increase investment this year; From the perspective of capacity utilization, the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized, while the overseas demand side is still strengthening; From the perspective of funds, both endogenous and external financing of enterprises are guaranteed this year, and enterprises have the ability to make additional investments. On the whole, the manufacturing industry is still on the upward channel in the second half of 2021, and the year-on-year growth rate for the whole year is expected to be around 10%, with a compound year-on-year growth of 3.7% for 2019.5.1. The manufacturing industry is still on an upward trend in the second half of the yearFrom the perspective of profit expectations, entrepreneurs are relatively optimistic about the future recovery of the manufacturing industry, and enterprises are willing to increase investment.The entrepreneur confidence index, which is of leading significance to manufacturing investment, has been rising rapidly since bottoming out in the first quarter of last year, reaching a record high of 144.7 in the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, the manufacturing loan demand index also reached 72.2, a high in the past 10 years., and in the third and fourth quarters, as the prices of bulk commodities are controlled, profit expectations are expected to further improve. Therefore, on the overall profit side, manufacturing investment will remain prosperous this year. At the same time, as of May 2021, the profits of industrial enterprises were as high as 36.4% year-on-year in that month, and the compound year-on-year in 2019 was 20.2%. The high profit growth rate has also boosted entrepreneurs' confidence and strengthened entrepreneurs' willingness to actively invest and expand production.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37de818741ccf56c9f7b05c99c1bb23e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of capacity utilization, the current industrial capacity utilization rate is still at a historically high level, and the production capacity of existing manufacturing enterprises has been fully utilized. Against the background of the improvement in the demand side of the global economic recovery, there is a need for additional manufacturing investment in the second half of the year. The demand exists objectively。 In the first quarter of 2021, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, which has declined compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but is still at a high level in the past 10 years. In addition, as of May 2021, among the completed fixed asset investment, the cumulative amount of new projects was 15.6% year-on-year, and the compound growth rate was 4% year-on-year. The compound growth rate has steadily increased since 2021, and is higher than the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in each month of 2020. The compound growth rate of construction and installation projects in May was 5.6%, and the growth rate of construction and installation investment has risen steadily since 2020. The steady increase in new projects and construction and installation investment also confirms to a certain extent the objective existence of market demand for further increasing manufacturing investment in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e395be0d30b783afe5e367afa0cf3c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of financing situation, the capital side of enterprises is guaranteed this year, and enterprises have sufficient funds to make additional investment.In terms of external financing, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in April pointed out that the current economic recovery is still uneven and the foundation is still unstable. A prudent monetary policy must maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy, key areas, and weak links. Under this policy tone, the external financing of manufacturing enterprises is guaranteed. In terms of endogenous financing, manufacturing profits have stabilized and rebounded this year. In May, the total profits of industrial enterprises reached 829.9 billion yuan, which is at a historical high. The enhancement of endogenous funds can also strengthen the ability of enterprises to further invest.5.2. Structural aspects: medicine, computer communications, midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing leadIn 2021, the recovery of global production will become the main theme. Against the background of the improvement of overseas demand and the start of the active replenishment process, exports will become a key clue in my country's national economy. Typical export-dependent industries such as computer communications and machinery and equipment are facing better profit expectations; The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry related to the epidemic also has good fundamental support due to the lack of vaccine supply and repeated epidemics in emerging economies. From the data point of view, the cumulative amount of fixed asset investment completed in related industries in the past three months has indeed continued to improve marginally year-on-year, which further confirms that exports are an important clue for manufacturing investment this year.In terms of exports, medicines related to the epidemic this year, computer communications related to the stay-at-home economy and production substitution, and midstream raw materials and machinery manufacturing related to production recovery are all expected to perform well, so corresponding industries will also lead this year's manufacturing investment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269be27e898b33f475b3552a98aea4e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 6: What is the rhythm of consumption recovery?In the recovery path after the epidemic, there has been a clear differentiation between China and overseas countries. China's epidemic prevention and control is proper, but the policy stimulus is less, so it presents a pattern of \"strong production and weak consumption\". Developed countries have failed to control the epidemic and resume work and production, but the scale of fiscal stimulus is huge, showing a situation of \"weak production and strong consumption\". We believe that with the increase of residents' income and the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, China's consumption will continue to recover, but due to the long tail effect brought about by the epidemic, the recovery rate of consumption may still be slow.6.1. The restriction of residents' income on consumption will gradually easeFrom a total perspective, there are two reasons for the slow recovery of China's consumption: First, the economic recession after the epidemic has led to a significant decline in the income level of Chinese residents and a decline in spending power.We measure the per capita disposable income of urban residents by the two-year year-on-year. Until the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of residents' income was far behind that before the epidemic, thus limiting spending power. But this also reflects that there is still a lot of room for residents' consumption recovery.We believe that residents' income will increase steadily with the gradual recovery of the economy, and this factor will not become a long-term reason for restricting consumption.Second, the epidemic has led to a decline in residents' willingness to consume。 The ratio of household consumption expenditure to income dropped to the lowest point after the epidemic. In the first quarter of this year, the ratio of consumption to income dropped again. We believe that the policy of celebrating the New Year on the spot this year has greatly interfered with this. However, the data also reflects that the epidemic still has a greater impact on residents' willingness to consume. In addition, the increase of residents' precautionary savings in the post-epidemic era is also an important reason for suppressing consumption. As the impact of the epidemic gradually fades,These factors will eventually subside, but the change of residents' willingness to consume, especially their willingness to save, will take a long time to reverse, so the recovery of consumption in the future will still be a relatively slow process.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127dcf5d427b0e33b7f3724e15a9ee78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6.2. The consumption structure will gradually become balancedStructurally, catering and travel-related consumption is still suppressed; In particular, consumption below the limit is very bleak. As an industry accounting for more than 10% of the total social retail sales, the recovery of the catering industry lags far behind the average level. However, it is worth noting that the total catering income of enterprises above designated size has fully recovered, even higher than the pre-epidemic level. We believe this reflects two problems:First, due to the impact of the epidemic, residents' willingness to go out for dining is still low, which is confirmed by the low growth rate of total catering revenue. Second, during the epidemic, many small enterprises may have closed down, resulting in their consumption being partially replaced by enterprises above designated size. However, the collapse of a large number of small businesses will lead to the lack of many consumption scenarios, so this will also affect the total consumption. It will take relatively longer for small businesses to return to the market, so the recovery of consumption recovery will also be relatively slow。The recovery of consumption related to going out lags behind other industries, such as clothing consumption and oil consumption. Due to the decrease of residents' willingness to travel after the epidemic, the growth of oil consumption is still weak even under the ultra-low base last year. However, it can also be seen that these industries are improving marginally, and the growth rate is increasing rapidly. With the easing of the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of industries related to going out will be recovered quickly.The consumption structure will become more balanced.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f2c07eb6f66cb736dc66dec354315c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 7: Can China's monetary policy continue to be loose?We believe that it is difficult for China's monetary policy to continue to be loose under the background that the economic recovery momentum is still sufficient, the PPI may exceed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is normalized.7.1. The \"Delta\" virus is an uncertain factor affecting monetary policyAt present, the global epidemic prevention and control is facing new variables. The \"Delta\" mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc around the world. Starting from South Asia, it has quickly caused serious impact on some countries in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Europe and the United States. Since the current vaccine is still protective against the virus, and the accessibility of vaccines in European and American countries is much higher than that in developing countries, the mutated virus has not yet had a serious impact on the epidemic prevention and control in developed countries. Recently, a new round of local epidemic spread in China in Guangdong has also been brought under control, and there have been no new local cases in Guangdong for more than 10 consecutive days.To sum up, we expect that in the second half of the year, with the further advancement of global vaccination, it is unlikely that there will be another large-scale outbreak of the epidemic in major economies. The following analysis of monetary policy outlook is based on the judgment of steady economic recovery under the background of continued control of the epidemic. However, we do not rule out the tail risk that the mutated virus will shut down the world's major economies again.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1799088e020e7129be96a6f21f0a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.2. The normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will drive a coordinated global responseAs we mentioned above, it is a high probability event that the normalization of U.S. monetary policy in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate. Against this background, some emerging economies have begun to take action this year to advance rate hikeFor example, the Brazilian central bank conducted two rate hike in March and May, with a total increase of 150 basis points; The Russian Central Bank held two rate hike in March and April, with a total increase of 75 basis points; Turkey raised by 200 basis points in March; The governor of the Bank of Korea also publicly stated that he would raise interest rates at the end of the year.We believe that this round of rate hike for some emerging economies is a comprehensive consideration of high inflation and the risk of dealing with the Federal Reserve's future monetary normalization, and is also in line with historical experience。 Many views in the market believe that rate hike, an emerging economy, is mainly dealing with high inflation, but high inflation itself is the combined result of the contradiction between supply and demand superimposed on global liquidity easing. From purely economic considerations, the economies of many emerging countries have not yet fully recovered. It seems that monetary policy should pay more attention to the resumption of work, production and employment in the economy. The necessity of rate hike is not strong, and the extent should not be too large. This is in line with the current actions. The policy behavior of central banks in emerging economies is inconsistent. Judging from the historical rate hike experience of emerging economies, before the last round of the Fed's 2015 rate hike, emerging economies often prepared in advance, and the first rate hike was about one year ahead of the Fed. Against the background that the U.S. economy has recovered beyond expectations and the Federal Reserve's FMOC meeting is close to hawkish statements, the rate hike of emerging economies should not only be interpreted as a response to inflation risks, but also as a preparation for future Fed policy shifts.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922048f423e845f5dedb693a9a7bcae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.3. my country's monetary policy will remain firm in the second half of the year and it will be difficult to turn looseIn the second quarter, my country's monetary policy remained firm, the release and withdrawal of liquidity were basically the same, and the growth rate of social financing declined slowly. Based on the previous judgment on the economic situation in the second half of the year and the analysis of the following factors, we believe thatIn the second half of the year, China's monetary policy will continue to manage the general monetary gate, and will not turn to easing, so as to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. Although the total amount of monetary policy will not be further loosened, the effectiveness of monetary policy in structurally supporting the development of the real economy will not be reduced.According to the central bank's monetary policy implementation report in the first quarter, the next stage of monetary policy will not only manage the general gate, but also further play the driving role of refinancing, rediscounting and two structural monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy. This will still become an important focus for monetary policy support to promote the high-quality transformation and upgrading of the real economy at present and in the future.7.3. 1. Overall international monetary policy coordination remains in placeChina's monetary policy follows the inside-out principle, with me as the mainstay, but the expected change in the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has an impact on China's policy。 From the historical experience, in order to cope with the sharp downside risk of the economy, during the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2015, the People's Bank of China launched several rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the monetary policy was obviously loose. However, two months before the Federal Reserve launched the rate hike, the People's Bank of China also stopped cutting interest rates, and so far it has not adjusted the benchmark interest rate. Therefore, it is biased to think that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy does not affect China's policy at all. Judging from the statement of the central bank's regular meeting in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, the wording is also clearer to \"strengthen international macroeconomic policy coordination and prevent external shocks.\"The side effects of the last round of China's RRR cut and interest rate cut policy are also relatively large, so we should learn a lesson. China's stock market and housing prices in various tier cities have risen successively. Finally, the stock market bubble ended with a stock market crash, while the real estate bubble kept housing prices high. Monetary policy has limited support for the development of the real economy, and it also increases the difficulty of controlling the stability of housing prices in the later period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfb489607acf09757ee4df131807c32\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.3. 2. Looking at monetary policy objectives, there are not sufficient reasons for my country to turn to easing in the second half of the yearFirst, from the perspective of the price target of monetary policy, inflationary pressure in the second half of the year will be smaller than that in the first half of the year, but the PPI index will still be high, and it is not because prices fall can be loosened。 The current CPI is not high, and the PMI data released in June also verifies that the PPI has peaked with a high probability and will enter a downward channel in the future. Although the inflationary pressure is smaller than that in the first half of the year, the decline of PPI in the second half of the year is slow, and the inflation level will continue to consolidate at a high level for a period of time. The overall pressure is not small. Therefore, we do not think that if the inflationary pressure is small, monetary policy can be loose, just as the high price pressure in the first half of the year does not mean that money should be tight.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813e39446219c1c2e8da2f512e59c3cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, from the perspective of the economic and employment goals of monetary policy, our current employment remains prosperous, economic growth is recovering steadily and continuously, the demand for high-quality development is higher than the demand for high growth rate, and there is less pressure to stabilize growth and maintain employment.On the one hand, unlike in 2015, the current decision-making level's requirements for economic quality are higher than those for growth rate, and the money supply will not be relaxed due to a certain degree of downward pressure. On the other hand, at present, China's economic recovery is still relatively stable, and the demand for easing is not strong. In terms of unemployment rate, the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been declining in recent months, recording 5% in May, which is even lower than the level before the outbreak of the epidemic. The results of maintaining employment are remarkable and the pressure has been significantly reduced. From the perspective of economic growth, GDP growth has recovered rapidly since the first quarter, reaching 18.3% year-on-year, and 10.25% year-on-year based on 2019, indicating a strong recovery of economic vitality. GDP in the second quarter is expected to reach 8.6% year-on-year, and the World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in June. In the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth of GDP will inevitably decline due to the high base, but it is likely to be better than expected. The decline in exports is expected to be limited. Consumption will fluctuate due to the epidemic, but the recovery trend remains unchanged. Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a strong growth trend.Third, from the perspective of the deleveraging target of monetary policy, we expect that the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, no longer decline, and will remain at a high level。 The leverage ratio in the first quarter of this year dropped to 267.8% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but it was mainly due to the base effect of GDP in the first quarter. According to our calculations, the macro leverage ratio in the second quarter will be basically the same as that in the first quarter, and the macro leverage ratio will be stable at a high level. Controlling the growth rate of overall leverage has become a new topic of macro policy. In the second half of the year, economic development will slow down year-on-year, but the resilience is sufficient, and monetary policy does not need to release water to further push up macro leverage.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a647f7ed7af4bafa0a48d92a602f447\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Fourthly, judging from the goal that the RMB exchange rate is basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, there is little pressure on the strong trend of RMB appreciation during the year.There was a significant appreciation of the RMB in April. Since the end of May, especially after the Federal Reserve released its hawkish attitude, the US dollar has rebounded and the RMB exchange rate has also corrected slightly. We expect that the RMB will oscillate in both directions with a high probability in the second half of the year, which has weak indicative significance for monetary policy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28b52ed2f31a7129d3b716d81a42349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7.3. 3. The current monetary volume, price and credit are at a desirable levelFirst, judging from the price indicators of monetary policy, the policy interest rate has been at the lowest level in the past ten years, and there is basically no room for further easing.As the policy interest rate, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has been reduced by 2.2% since the epidemic last year, which is the lowest level in the past ten years. There is currently no room for downward adjustment. Market expectations for policy interest rate cuts are also relatively low.Secondly, judging from the quantitative indicators of monetary policy, recent liquidity operations are mainly based on maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The release and recovery of liquidity are basically flat, and the market capital interest rate has remained stable.In the second quarter, the total net investment of the central bank's open market operations was less than 100 billion yuan, most of which increased in response to the tightening liquidity in June. Generally speaking, it can be considered that the withdrawal of money in the second quarter was basically flat, and DR001 and DR007 remained basically stable, indicating that inter-bank funds are basically abundant. In other words, reasonable and sufficient liquidity can be achieved if the funds are not loose or tight.Third, from the perspective of credit, it is the policy goal that the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically matches nominal GDP, and there is no need to turn to easing at present。 This year's government work report clearly stated that the growth rate of money supply and social financing should basically match the nominal economic growth rate. As can be seen from the figure below, both the quarterly growth indicator of nominal GDP and the proxy variable of GDP growth rate-the growth rate of industrial added value (month-on-month) basically match the scale of social financing. In recent months, the growth rate of social financing has gradually dropped from 13% at the beginning of the year to 11%. At present, we still maintain the forecast since the end of last year, and the overall growth rate of social financing scale this year will drop to 10%-11%. In May, the growth rate of M2 recorded 8.3%, and it may rebound slightly in the second half of the year as the base decreases. If combined with the growth rate of social financing, it can basically match the nominal GDP growth of the whole year.All in all, we analyze from multiple angles and find that the reasons for China's monetary policy to turn loose in the second half of the year are not very sufficient. We should pay attention to this expected risk in the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0fcd468071754dfae9d7988189d490\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89011c80601ef57229f6e7a97dfb7f7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Outlook 8: What are the short-term and long-term trends of RMB exchange rate?The RMB exchange rate has experienced ups and downs in recent months, which has also had a great impact on the capital market. We believe that the RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but it will not depreciate sharply or enter a depreciation cycle. In the medium and long term, the RMB still has a strong fundamental foundation for appreciation.8.1. The RMB will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but will not enter a depreciation cycleLooking back at the trend of exchange rates in various countries since last year, the epidemic is the core influencing factor, and so is the RMB exchange rate.The epidemic first broke out in China in February last year, and the RMB depreciated. The outbreak of overseas epidemics in March caused a liquidity crisis of the US dollar. All non-US currencies collectively depreciated, and the RMB fell against the US dollar. As the liquidity crisis eased in May, China took the lead in getting out of the predicament of the epidemic, and the economy recovered rapidly. The RMB entered a process of appreciation for more than half a year. At the beginning of this year, the large-scale epidemic in the autumn and winter of the United States began to ease, and the popularization of vaccines accelerated, the US dollar strengthened, and the RMB passively depreciated. After April, vaccination in the United States slowed down, while vaccine popularization in Europe accelerated, coupled with the impact of lower-than-expected non-agricultural data, the US dollar weakened against the euro, and the RMB also indirectly strengthened against the US dollar. The appreciation of RMB accelerated in late May. After June, with the central bank's regulation and the hawkish meeting of the Federal Reserve, the RMB pulled back against the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f1257f5077fb29f8243dc55787cd2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since April, the RMB has experienced a relatively large appreciation, and the speed is too fast. We believe that there will be adjustment pressure in the short term.First of all, the RMB has appreciated faster than the fundamental basis.Compared with last year, when China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and recovered strongly, the second and third quarters of this year were the stages when the relative advantage of the US economy was more obvious. The substantial and rapid appreciation of the RMB at this stage was divorced from the economic fundamentals.Secondly, judging from the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always avoided excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, because this will affect the stability of the financial system and the trading system。 In late May, some central bank officials' remarks in support of RMB appreciation ignited the market's expectation of RMB appreciation, leading to the rapid appreciation of RMB, in which there were a lot of speculative factors. Therefore, the central bank immediately expressed its position to curb the excessive fluctuation of RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d382e08354897d8186f000124ee533c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, we believe that the RMB will not depreciate significantly or even enter a depreciation cycle.Judging from the experience since the \"811\" exchange rate reform in 2015, the central bank's regulation of the RMB exchange rate is counter-cyclical, and there is no clear intention to guide the appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rate, but only to restrain the excessive fluctuation of the RMB. From the effect point of view, the central bank's control will only have a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate, and it is difficult to affect the general trend. The ultimate turning point of RMB exchange rate lies in the fundamentals of economic and monetary policy.Therefore, although the central bank intervened in the exchange rate this time, it was difficult to reverse the trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ee472c0f99e668e3bad7a6e4c3891e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition, from the perspective of international relations, China is currently facing greater pressure from the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, and needs to import substantially to fulfill its commitments to the United States, which objectively requires that the RMB exchange rate should remain strong to promote imports. In the first phase of the Sino-US agreement, China needs to increase imports of manufactured goods, agricultural products and energy products (trade in services is not easy to count and will not be discussed for the time being) by a total of 77.7 billion dollars, 32 billion dollars and 52.4 billion dollars in two years on the basis of 2017. According to US-based trade data, China's imports from the United States only increased by US $2.11 billion, US $4.52 billion and US $2.09 billion in 2020.Therefore, if the first phase of the agreement is to be completed, China will need to increase imports in these three areas by a total of 153.4 billion dollars this year。 If the two-year target needs to be reached, it needs to achieve growth rates of 149.87%, 131.33% and 657.69% respectively. Even if we do not consider filling last year's gap, the increase in 2021 compared with 2017 needs to reach 88.82%, 93.18% and 443.16% respectively.So far this year, the completion rate of commitments is still not high, and the pressure is high.Judging from the attitudes of China and the United States, both have a strong willingness to complete the first phase of the agreement. The United States even made it clear that this is one of the conditions for considering tariff reduction on China.Therefore, judging from the need to fulfill import commitments and maintain Sino-US relations, it is not suitable for RMB to depreciate significantly at this time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900194bce7a29531d5add4f40bc9217a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"781\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">8.2. There is a basis for continued appreciation of RMB in the medium and long termAlthough there is pressure to adjust the RMB in the second half of this year, especially in the third quarter. However, in the medium and long term, the fundamental foundation of RMB appreciation is still strong.From the perspective of long-term economic growth, China's economy is more stable in comparison.During the epidemic, major central banks around the world adopted flooding monetary and fiscal policies, and central bank balance sheets expanded rapidly. In contrast, China's monetary policy is very restrained, and the highest point of year-on-year growth rate of M2 is only comparable to the lowest point before 2016. The strength of fiscal policy is also limited. Without strong stimulus, there will be less pressure to withdraw policies in the future. In fact, China's monetary and fiscal policies have basically returned to the normal track this year, while other major economies will face the painful period of policy withdrawal. In contrast, China's economic growth will be more stable in the future, which will also enhance the attractiveness of the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefad97bcd9ab878e1ff7e172471c07e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of inflation, after a lot of analysis, the results show that there is an obvious inverse relationship between inflation and exchange rate in various countries. Exchange rate depreciation will cause inflation to rise, behind which is the impact of imported inflation; Rising inflation will also cause exchange rate depreciation, behind which is the principle of purchasing power parity. As mentioned above, we believe that the long-term inflation center in developed countries will rise, while the inflationary pressure in China will be relatively small. The United States has triggered across-the-board inflation due to cash subsidies, overheated real estate, recovering services and rising energy prices, whileChina's CPI is at a very low level, which helps to maintain the purchasing power of RMB, thus supporting the exchange rate.From the perspective of monetary policy, unlike the RMB depreciation cycle in 2014-2016, although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is currently on the way to normalization, China's monetary policy is also \"turning\". The two are in the same direction, rather than the situation that the United States tightened and China released water in 2014-2016. SoThe normalization of China's monetary policy will partially offset the pressure on the yuan exchange rate caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fcfff58b1aa6db4e9133752587b55d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Risk warning: The global epidemic is spreading again, and policies are tightened too quickly.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G8xinKKNWok3I1uwxB4s5A\">东北宏观by凤来仪</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3818aa8c04676880c8fa36fc370f4054","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G8xinKKNWok3I1uwxB4s5A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129945496","content_text":"报告摘要\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？我们认为大通胀和大通缩的基础都不具备，发达国家未来通胀中枢会高于此前十年，但难以出现持续高通胀。中国下半年PPI同比将小幅回落但维持高位，CPI压力很小。\n展望三：美联储货币政策的步调会怎样？随着经济的复苏和通胀的抬升，我们认为短期内美联储货币政策可能加快正常化的步伐，缩减购债势在必行，将于今年年末或明年年初实施。美元将获得短期支撑，美债长端收益率也会有上行压力。\n展望四：中国下半年出口会很差吗？在高基数的拖累下，2021年中国下半年出口，在数值上难以维持上半年的超高同比增速。但我们认为下半年中国出口的基本面将保持强势，乐观情景下全年增速21%，中性情景下全年增速15%，悲观情景下全年增速10%（概率较低），结构方面前高后低逐季回落。\n展望五：制造业投资能否继续修复？我们认为2021年下半年制造业仍在上行通道，预计全年同比增速将在10%左右，对2019年复合同比增长3.7%。\n展望六：消费修复的节奏是怎么样的？我们认为随着居民收入的提升和疫情影响的淡化，中国消费将会持续复苏，但由于疫情带来的长尾效应，消费恢复的速度可能仍然较慢。\n展望七：中国货币政策能否继续宽松？我们认为在经济复苏动力仍足、PPI存在超预期可能、美联储货币政策正常化的背景下，中国货币政策难以继续宽松。\n展望八：人民币汇率的短期和长期走势如何？人民币汇率在近几个月经历了大起大落，对资本市场也产生了较大影响。我们认为短期内人民币将会震荡调整，但不会因此大幅贬值或进入贬值周期。中长期来看人民币仍有较强的升值基本面基础。\n风险提示：全球疫情再度蔓延，政策过快紧缩。\n\n\n报告正文\n展望一：美国经济是否能持续强劲？\n我们认为美国经济下半年都将具有明显的相对优势，尤其是三季度。不过长期来看靠直升机撒钱带来的繁荣难以持续。\n1.1.美国在疫情控制上可能具有相对优势\n自全球疫情爆发以来，决定各国经济复苏速度的首要因素就是疫情控制情况。中国率先控制住疫情，复工复产顺利推进，经济重启，成为了2020年主要经济体中唯一实现正增长的国家。而其它国家疫情均出现了大规模的反弹，经济始终无法全面开放。能够在疫情防控上取得领先的国家毫无疑问将获得巨大的相对优势。\n对于海外各国而言，疫苗普及率和疫苗的有效性是能否成功防控疫情的关键。在疫苗的普及方面，发达国家具备先天的优势。欧美国家是很多种疫苗的生产国，同时垄断了大部分疫苗的产量。而新兴经济体大多难以在短时间内获得疫苗。所以近期发达国家疫情防控形势普遍好于发展中国家。目前美国疫苗普及速度虽然放缓，但是新增病例已经持续下降，反映出疫苗普及对疫情防控确实起到了明显作用。而且美国拒绝接种的人群大多为年轻人，对新冠病毒的免疫能力更强，所以疫苗普及速度的放缓并未造成疫情反弹。\n从疫苗有效性方面来看，目前全球主要的新冠疫苗分三种：mRNA疫苗，以辉瑞-Moderna疫苗为代表；腺病毒载体疫苗，以牛津-阿斯利康疫苗为代表；灭活疫苗，以中国疫苗为代表。我们选取了美国以及加拿大、英国、智利几个疫苗普及率均很高的国家分析。其中，美国和加拿大接种的疫苗以mRNA疫苗为主；英国接种的疫苗的疫苗以腺病毒载体疫苗和mRNA疫苗为主；智利接种的疫苗以灭活疫苗为主。\n从疫情控制情况来看，目前美国7日平均新增病例稳步下降，加拿大疫情也得到了较好的控制。而英国近期疫情出现了明显反弹。有医学专家表示英国新增病例中大部分为新冠病毒的变种Delta病毒，而腺病毒载体疫苗对Delta病毒的防控效果不佳。智利疫情自6月以来开始下降，不过速度相对美国和加拿大较慢。目前医学上对几种新冠疫苗的有效性尚无定论，但从数据上看，短期内似乎mRNA疫苗在疫情防控上更具优势。我们分析了更多的样本国家，大多符合这一结论，在此不一一列举。\n美国疫苗接种以mRNA疫苗为主。相对应的，欧洲国家接种了较大量的腺病毒载体疫苗。日本到目前为止仍然接种率偏低，仅与世界平均水平相当。而新兴市场疫苗接种进度普遍落后。所以在今年下半年美国在疫情防控方面可能具有一定相对优势，有望先行控制住疫情并实现经济的完全开放。我们的基本假设是三季度是美国疫情得到控制、经济完全开放的时点。这是美国经济能够继续强劲复苏的必要条件。\n\n\n1.2.美国就业市场有望加快复苏\n美国4月和5月的非农就业数据不及预期，这也是此前压制美元、美债收益率和阻碍美联储货币政策正常化的重要因素。但我们认为美国就业放缓是暂时的，三季度美国就业市场有望加速复苏。\n导致4、5月份美国就业数据不及预期的主要有以下三个因素：\n第一，美国政府对居民的现金补贴和失业金补贴降低了失业者找工作的急切程度。一些调查结果显示，相对于疫情之前，近期美国居民找工作是出于“经济压力”的比例更低了。很多失业者更愿意躺在家里领取财政补贴。共和党执政的州普遍计划更早结束失业救济金，民主党主导的州则将更晚退出。而相应的，疫情后共和党的红州失业率也明显低于民主党的蓝州。\n第二，疫情仍然影响着部分人外出工作的意愿。虽然美国民众中很多人并不在乎新冠病毒、也不注意防控。但也有很多人对此十分谨慎。美国求职网站ZipRecruiter的数据显示，有半数以上的求职者希望能够远程工作，然而只有10%的雇主会提供远程的职位，造成了供需的错配。只有疫情充分得到控制之后这个问题才能有效缓解。\n第三，由于众多学校、教育机构在疫情期间的封锁，儿童的父母居家照顾孩子的需求提升，难以外出工作。美国有相关调查表明，有低龄儿童的父母的复工率明显低于平均水平。\n很明显，以上三个原因的根本都在于疫情及相关影响，且都是短期因素，这些因素有望在三季度缓解。首先，目前美国已经有很多州计划提早结束失业救济金。按照各州目前计划，在7月10日之前将有半数州结束失业金，这将促使更多人外出寻找工作机会。其次，我们认为三季度美国疫情将持续缓解，经济有望全面开放，因担忧疫情而不去找工作的人数也将大大减少。再次，三季度随着各学校和教育机构重新开启，父母居家照顾儿童的需求也将降低，促使这部分群体外出工作。所以，我们认为三季度美国就业市场将有明显反弹，6月非农就业人数的超预期增长已经开始反映这一趋势。\n\n1.3.美国制造业补库存尚未结束，房地产市场仍存韧性\n我们认为美国生产修复带来的制造业补库存周期尚未结束，将对三季度经济有持续拉动，甚至可能持续至年底。我们对比了2000年以来美国典型的四次补库存周期的经验，分别为互联网泡沫后的补库存、金融危机后的补库存，2016年全球共振补库存及本次新冠疫情后的补库存周期。如下图所示，以各周期中库存同比的最低点为原点，补库存阶段通常会持续12个月以上，最长可达24个月左右。本轮周期中补库存的进程快于以往，但批发商和零售商补库存的趋势显然还没有结束，制造商补库存虽然冲高回落，但我们认为可能因为复工复产不完全。随着生产端的进一步复苏，制造商补库存也有望持续。不过从趋势对比来看，美国补库存周期很难在明年保持强劲势头。\n\n\n美国房地产市场开始出现降温迹象。不断上升的建房成本大幅推升了房屋价格，同时美国抵押贷款利率也在今年年初开始回升，这限制了居民的购房能力，加之房屋库存的短缺，使得房屋销售量开始下降。\n不过房屋建造支出仍将保持一定韧性。一方面，美国房屋销售虽然降温，但我们预计不会快速回落，因为利率绝对水平仍然不高，有新房源加入市场后会满足此前库存不足而无法释放的需求。另一方面，美国房地产补库存的需求仍在，房屋建造支出的周期滞后于销售周期，所以对经济的拉动仍然存在。\n\n\n1.4.服务业将随着经济开放而强劲复苏\n疫情爆发以来，强力的财政刺激政策带来了商品消费的V型反弹，甚至远强于疫情之前。但是服务业则由于经济的封锁而降至冰点，之后复苏的速度也较慢。\n根据牛津大学编制的政府封锁指数，由于疫情的影响，美国至今封锁程度仍然较高，这制约着服务业的复苏。而三季度随着疫情得到控制、经济完全开放，服务业恢复的空间很大。从就业情况来看，目前服务业相关行业就业人数较疫情之前仍有很大缺口，潜力很大。同时，我们认为服务业消费和商品消费有望相互促进而非挤出。目前美国居民收入仍然远远高于疫情之前，储蓄水平也大幅高于疫情之前，所以居民消费能力有充分保障。制约消费的并非预算约束，而是缺乏服务业的消费场景。\n\n\n综合以上几点原因，我们认为三季度美国疫情防控将具备相对优势，就业市场有望加速复苏，制造业、房地产业存在韧性且服务业将强劲复苏。所以下半年尤其是三季度美国经济表现仍将亮眼。\n不过从长期来看，美国本轮经济强势复苏的源头是远超其它国家的财政和货币政策刺激。未来美国难有新的纾困法案，而美联储货币政策也在正常化的途中，明年之后美国将面临政策退出带来的阵痛。从金融危机之后美国数轮QE的退出经验来看，货币政策的退出都会带来经济下行的压力。从上文的论述中也可以看出，制造业补库存和房地产的火热在今年大概率结束，所以美国经济今年的繁荣在长期难以持续。\n\n展望二：未来到底是大通胀还是大通缩？\n通胀是今年全球宏观经济的核心关注点之一。而市场对通胀的看法较为两极化，一种观点认为由于贫富差距的扩大和全球化贸易重启，大通缩将为长期的趋势；另一种观点认为由于史无前例的货币放水和供给不足，全球未来将出现大通胀趋势。我们认为大通胀和大通缩的基础都不具备，发达国家未来通胀中枢会高于此前十年，但难以出现持续高通胀。中国下半年PPI同比将小幅回落但维持高位，CPI压力很小。\n2.1.美国长期通胀中枢会抬升\n从长期角度来看，虽然近期全球普遍存在的高通胀会最终回落，但我们并不认为会出现大通缩环境，未来通胀中枢将会高于过去十年，有以下两点理由：\n第一，本轮中巨量的财政刺激与货币刺激相配合，与以往危机后以货币政策为主的刺激方式不同。主要依靠货币政策刺激会导致大量货币滞留在金融体系之中，无法流入实体经济内，其结果是金融资产价格大幅上涨。而财政政策则能有效推动货币流入实体经济，从而推升实体通胀。今年全球大超预期的通胀就是财政政策效果的体现。\n“直升机撒钱”的另一个直接结果是造成了劳动力市场供给的不足，同时推升了工资水平。下图中展示了美国商品生产部门平均时薪和美国CPI的关系，可以看出当薪资水平增长与通胀相匹配时，通胀就存在持续上行的动力，比如20世纪70年代以及2001-2008年。而当薪资增长明显落后于通胀之时，通胀上升也会乏力，比如1980-2000年及2011-2016年。事实上近年来美国近两年工资水平一直在持续上升，这是推动通胀上行的重要动力，美国CPI同比在2017年和2018年就几度逼近3%。而疫情后这一趋势出现加速，薪资与CPI之比达到20世纪70年代的水平，这也将推动通胀继续加速上涨。通常这一趋势都不是短期之内可以终结的，虽然目前的劳动力供给不足很大程度上是由于短期因素，但不可否认劳动参与率的降低和疫情带来的经济结构变化也给劳动力供给带来了长期的影响，薪资上升推动通胀上涨的循环可能还会持续较长时间。\n\n第二，去全球化和发达国家的制造业回流政策会带来长期的通胀压力。2000年以来发达国家低通胀的一个众所周知的原因，就是全球化贸易的不断发展导致新兴经济体的廉价商品冲击了发达国家的商品价格，发展中国家巨量的低价供给使得发达国家无论如何刺激需求也无法拉动通胀。很明显的例子就是中国加入WTO之后，美国商品CPI迅速跳水，体现出全球化贸易带来的低通胀效应。\n但这一趋势已经受到了阻碍，甚至开始扭转。一是全球化贸易已经进入瓶颈，近年来全球贸易开放指数出现震荡下降，尤其是各国民粹主义政府上台之后，全球化遭遇的挑战更大，新兴市场的廉价商品压低发达国家通胀的趋势受阻，中美贸易摩擦就是典型的例子。二是发达国家普遍开始“制造业回流”计划。G7国家率先推行全球最低税率政策，意在吸引海外避税的公司回归本国。当前和未来的一系列政策目标都会是增加跨国公司在海外的成本，而跨国公司如果会到本国，也将面临更高的劳动力成本，成本的长期上升也会推动通胀的长期上行。\n\n2.2.当前宏观条件不具备大通胀的基础\n如上文所述，我们认为以美国为代表的发达国家长期通胀中枢会上升。那么是否会出现如上世纪70年代类似的大通胀？目前市场对通胀的关注点主要在于美国，我们以美国的角度出发，讨论是否存在大通胀（通胀率长期维持在5%以上）的基础。\n回顾美国百年来的通胀历史，可以看出明显的大通胀时期有三个：第一次世界大战时期，第二次世界大战时期，70年代石油危机时期。我们认为大通胀的基础主要有以下几点：\n\n第一，财政或货币的扩张导致货币供给量大增。一战与二战都是战争导致的财政赤字货币化，货币供给激增；而石油危机前实际上也是由于越南战争导致了美国货币供给大增，M2同比甚至远高于金融危机之后的天量放水时期。通胀的本质是货币现象，这一经济规律其实并未失效，但前提是实体经济中流通的货币增加。\n第二，货币政策需要有一定的空间刺激长期需求。当利率水平较高、货币政策空间较大时，降息等货币政策能够有效促进货币在实体经济中流通；而当利率水平很低时，货币宽松就容易陷入流动性陷阱，无法推动货币进入实体经济，进而在金融体系中空转，造成货币政策失效。\n第三，通胀预期的自我实现，这来自于货币政策目标的模糊。三次大通胀时期的共同特点似乎是供给端出现断层，分别表现为军用生产挤出民用生产，以及石油供给中断。但我们认为这只是表层原因，深层原因在于通胀预期的抬升。供给的缺口推升了通胀预期，而在三次大通胀时期，各国央行均未有明确的通胀目标，而是在经济和通胀之间反复徘徊，始终没有真正紧缩货币，导致市场对货币宽松有持续的预期，最终通胀预期与货币宽松预期相互促进，自我实现。\n\n此外，新兴经济体也可能会因为债务危机、货币贬值而导致输入性恶性通胀，不过我们在此只讨论大型经济体，不考虑此种情况.\n结合以上三点大通胀基础，我们来分析目前的状况。首先，财政及货币的巨量刺激，目前全球是符合这一情况的，美国政府债务率甚至超过了二战时期，其它国家也大多如此。全球M2飙升，货币供给泛滥。其次，货币政策有一定空间。这一点是不满足的，发达国家目前几乎全部是零利率或负利率，美联储资产负债表上积压大量基础货币，流动性陷阱的特征明显。最后，通胀预期的自我实现，这一点在当前难以实现。因为现在全球央行基本都设立了明确的通胀目标，对管理市场预期起到了非常重要且有效的作用，市场不再认为央行会无视通胀而刺激经济。虽然美联储改变了通胀的框架，但仍然有明确的管控通胀的要求，与过去大通胀时期完全不同。货币政策对通胀目标的限定使得市场难以出现过高的通胀预期。\n综合以上几点，我们认为目前全球并不具备大通胀的基础，难以出现持续的过高通胀。\n2.3.短期大宗商品价格大概率回调，但幅度预计有限\n论述了长期通胀前景后，我们回归对年内通胀的走势判断。我们认为近期大宗商品价格大概率已经见顶，可能会有所回调，从而缓解部分通胀压力。\n首先，全球M2增速已经出现拐点，指向大宗商品价格有下行压力。我们计算了G4和金砖四国的M2总和同比，这一指标与RJ/CRB商品价格指数同比有高度的相关性，大多时候具有领先性，少数时段为同步。领先时段多为半年左右。这一指标于今年2月见顶，经验上来看商品整体价格存在回调压力。\n\n其次，美联储逐步释放的收紧信号和中国政府的价格调控也有助于降低市场大宗商品的投机热度。近期数据来看，铜、原油等此前被市场投机者关注的品种已经明显降温。大宗商品市场正在向基本面回归。\n\n不过我们认为大宗商品价格的回调有限，难以出现价格的持续下降。\n首先，新兴市场生产恢复不快，难以迅速增加原材料供给。从荷兰经济分析局编制的全球各类别经济体生产指数来看，除去中国后的新兴经济体生产水平到一季度末尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，且在一季度末重新出现下行趋势。在新兴市场疫苗普及普遍落后、疫情防控情况不佳的情况下，原材料供给缺口何时能够弥补尚未可知。\n\n其次，虽然铁矿石、铜、煤炭等商品近期出现回调，但大宗商品之母——原油价格不断上涨。国际油价与中国煤炭、黑色、有色等大宗商品价格相关度极高，目前来看三季度油价大概率居高不下甚至继续上涨，将阻碍整体通胀水平的下行。\n\n基于以上判断，我们认为下半年在商品价格小幅回调及基数抬升的效应下，中国PPI同比将小幅回落，但将处于高位震荡，存在超预期的风险。不过CPI上升的压力很小。一方面中国消费复苏平稳，需求端不会出现暴增；另一方面猪肉价格快速下跌至较低的位置，大大拖累了CPI的增速。\n展望三：美联储货币政策的步调会怎样?\n随着经济的复苏和通胀的抬升，我们认为短期内美联储货币政策可能加快正常化的步伐，缩减购债势在必行，将于今年年末或明年年初实施。美元将获得短期支撑，美债长端收益率也会有上行压力。\n3.1.美联储缩减购债势在必行\n从客观的市场反应来看，目前美联储QE已经导致市场流动性过剩，继续购债的必要性在下降。美国隔夜逆回购数量已经攀升至历史高位，远远高于前几轮QE后期的情况。与中国逆回购投放流动性不同，美联储隔夜逆回购的上升意味着金融系统将货币存入美联储而换取债券等资产，即市场主动将“水”倒灌进美联储，表明市场流动性已经严重过剩。甚至为了维持利率走廊的下限，美联储6月会议不得不上调IOER和ONRRP利率各5个基点，以避免过量的流动性将短端利率下压至零以下。各种流动性过剩的迹象表明美联储有必要加快缩减购债的进程。\n\n从美联储的主观意愿来看，对缩减购债的预期引导也在稳步进行。虽然6月美联储会议并未正式讨论缩减购债，但鲍威尔指出已经准备讨论缩减购债，这与此前“不讨论缩减购债”的论调相比已经向前迈了一步。我们认为美联储本轮缩减购债将大致分为五个阶段：\n第一阶段：完全不讨论缩减购债。\n第二阶段：准备讨论缩减购债。\n第三阶段：正式讨论缩减购债。\n第四阶段：公布缩减购债的时间计划。\n第五阶段：正式开始缩减购债。\n这一过程充分体现出美联储与市场的沟通。目前美联储已经从第一阶段跨入第二阶段。预计7月或8月就将正式讨论缩减购债，三季度末或四季度初可能公布缩减购债的时间计划，可能在今年年末或明年年初正式开始实施。\n6月美联储会议透露出的另一个信号是，美联储不再完全无视通胀了。此前在CPI数据超预期上升时，美联储官员都会出面“降温”，强调通胀是短期因素，不会因此改变货币政策取向。但在6月会议上，鲍威尔指出“通货膨胀可能会比我们预期的更高、更持久”，意味着美联储已经承认自己可能会误判通胀。同时指出“如果通胀预期过高，将准备调整政策。”表明美联储已经不完全是淡化通胀的态度，而是随时做好了政策应对。如我们前文所述，美国长期通胀中枢将会抬升，短期也存在超预期的可能，这也会促使美联储加快货币政策正常化的步伐。\n3.2.美元将维持短期强势，美债收益率有望重拾升势\n由于本轮周期中美联储与市场沟通非常充分，对市场预期的引导也较为成功，所以我们认为美联储货币政策正常化的进程不会对市场造成很大扰动，股市不会因此受到明显冲击。不过随着收紧预期的逐步兑现，汇率和债市会有相应变化。\n我们认为在美联储紧缩预期之下，美元指数短期之内将维持较强势头，但不会进入强美元周期。我们在第一部分提到，美国三季度经济应会表现强劲，相对其它主要经济体有较大的相对优势，这是支撑美元的基本面基础。同时我们认为美联储货币政策收紧的预期会在三季度逐步升温，这是美元强势的政策面基础。\n不过从长期来看，美联储货币政策正常化不必然带来美元的强周期。回顾2008年之后美国几轮QE的经验，每次QE退出会带来美元的短期强势，但势头能否维持仍取决于美国经济基本面是否真正转好。QE3退出后虽然美元进入了强周期，但当时的更大背景是欧债危机再度爆发，欧元区QE预期不断升温并最终落地，被动推升了美元。而目前从欧洲几个主要债务国和德国的国债利差来看，欧债危机的风险已经大大减弱，欧元区货币政策正常化进程虽然慢于美国，但很难出现2014-2015年反向操作的情况。而如上文所述，我们认为明年之后美国经济很可能出现相对劣势，所以美元长期来看难以维持强劲势头。\n\n\n对于债市而言，美联储6月鹰派会议之后出现了一个较为有趣的现象：短端利率快速上升，但长端利率反而大幅下行，收益率曲线扁平化。这反映出市场目前对美联储短期加快收紧货币政策甚至加息是不怀疑的，但对于长期经济和通胀并没有信心。这与我们对美元指数的判断逻辑是部分相符的，美元表现与美国短端利率相关性更大，而长期来看则不易维持强劲。\n但我们认为三季度长端利率仍有较大的上行的风险。目前市场对长期增长悲观的很重要原因在于就业数据表现不够亮眼，即使6月份非农就业数据超预期上升，但失业率也反常走高，并不能够打消市场忧虑。同时随着近期大宗商品价格回调，通胀预期也有所下降。但如上文所述，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度有望加速复苏，而通胀也难以很快下降，所以美债长端收益率在短暂回调之后可能继续上升。\n\n展望四：中国下半年出口会很差吗？\n在高基数的拖累下，2021年中国下半年出口，在数值上难以维持上半年的超高同比增速。但我们认为下半年中国出口的基本面将保持强势，乐观情景下全年增速21%，中性情景下全年增速15%，悲观情景下全年增速10%（概率较低），结构方面前高后低逐季回落。\n4.1.下半年基数升高，出口增速逐季下降\n2020年从第三季度起，由于对疫情的良好控制，中国率先恢复生产，替代效应导致下半年出口表现亮眼，而对应的高基数将导致2021年下半年的出口同比增速受到明显抑制。2020年6月份中国出口总额同比增长0%，而7月份同比增长跃升至7%，且之后进一步提速，在11、12月同比增速分别高达21%与18%。在如此高基数的影响下，今年三四季度难以维持上半年的出口总额的超高同比增速。从数据上来看，即使假设下半年保持了第一季度对2019年13%的复合增速，那么三四季度的出口也将分别自然从一季度的49%大幅回落至18%和9%，故基数效应的影响在下半年的出口增速表现上起着主导作用，出口增速的逐季回落将是确定性的。\n\n4.2.全球需求端好转，对冲供给端的替代效应的衰减\n4.2.1. 全球经济修复带来的需求改善，是下半年出口的核心基本面\n中国作为世界工业大国，是全球产业链中极为重要的一环，故在历次的全球经济复苏过程中，中国的出口表现均十分亮眼。从数据上看，中国出口总额同比增速与OECD的实际GDP同比增速之间在大趋势和拐点上有着较强的相关性，也印证了在全球需求端好转的背景下，中国的出口表现往往不弱。\n\n当前虽然仍有疫情扰动，全球经济复苏尚不均衡，但从发达国家及全球整体来看，经济复苏的态势已经十分明显，且随着疫苗的接种，全球经济将持续转好，大势不改。从数据上来看，目前OECD综合领先指标在2021年3月份以来超过100且仍在持续扩张，反映出未来6个月全球的经济增长将保持强势。同时，截至6月30日，WTI原油现货价达73.47，波罗的海干散货指数达3383，油价和上游原材料的运价不断创出新高，也在一定程度上指向当前全球工业的蓬勃发展。\n\n所以，我们认为中国出口的基本面并没有走坏，出口的支撑逻辑发生了一定的变化，由之前的供给端生产替代主导，逐渐转化为全球需求端拉动中国出口。此外，从中国出口结构来看，2021年以来对出口增速拉动最为明显的项目均为工业生产的中游原材料及中游机械设备，也印证了我们逻辑转换的观点。\n\n4.2.2.   需求面拉动可极大程度对冲生产替代效应减弱的影响\n下半年全球的经济复苏将成为中国最核心的出口基本面。首先，全球需求总量的上升，对中国出口有着直接的拉动作用；其次，这种新释放出来的需求边际增量将很大程度上对冲海外经济体所恢复的供给，从而减弱海外供给恢复给中国带来的替代效应衰减。从数据上来看，在2019年全球出口总额全年负增长的背景下，中国出口占比仅为13%至14%。而2021年3月和4月全球出口总额同比分别大幅上涨26%与47%，对比2019年的复合增速高达7%与5%。在此期间中国在全球的出口份额降低至15%左右。同时，近一年来，疫苗接种较好的欧盟出口份额占比仅始终围绕13%小幅震荡，而东盟出口份额占比整体呈现出缓慢回落的形态。故全球需求端的复苏在极大程度上对冲了生产替代效应的衰退，生产替代效应的衰退影响有限，下半年出口将保持景气。\n\n4.3.下半年疫苗医药的出口仍有韧性\n截至2021年5月中国出口商品中，生物技术（疫苗等）、医药材及药品分别同比增加1240%和99%，对中国28%的出口增速的当月拉动率分别为5.7%和1.8%。目前欧洲仍受变异病毒影响，而东南亚等新兴经济体疫情正在爆发，由于疫苗供给不足，新兴经济体疫苗接种率普遍仍在10%以下，对中国疫苗和药品的需求仍大。同时截至2021年6月30日，中国已接种12.4亿剂新冠疫苗，随着中国对疫苗需求量的逐渐下降，大量疫苗产能可以用于供应出口，故下半年生物技术相关商品（疫苗等）的出口将大概率至少维持100%以上的复合同比增长，而医药材及药品的出口将至少保持50%以上的复合同比增速。\n\n4.4.航运不畅的扰动将在第三四季度大幅缓解\n航运不畅是此前影响中国进出口的重要因素之一。当前航运不畅的主要原因来自于：1.疫情造成的劳动力短缺；2. 集装箱周转低效导致的中国集装箱短缺。展望下半年，疫情导致的航运及港口劳动力的短缺等问题将随着疫苗的接种和就业市场的复苏而得到缓解；而集装箱的短缺，将随着集装箱的大量生产和周转效率的加快而得到解决，故航运不畅对运输效率的拖累在三四季度将会有明显好转。\n造成航运不畅的劳动力短缺来自于两方面，一方面是因为疫情和大规模财政刺激的影响，许多接受失业补助的工人选择呆在家里，导致了港口工人和货运司机无法得到及时的补充。但目前美国疫苗完全接种率已高达46%，随着美国失业救济的停止发放，以及疫苗的进一步普及，港口劳动力的短缺有望在下半年得到缓解。另一方面是海员的劳动力短缺，据国际航运公会相关数据，全球国际贸易商船上共有约164.7万名海员，其中15%来自于印度，而印度爆发第二波疫情后，全球多国的港口开始拒绝载有印度海员或途径印度的船只入港，增加了海员轮换的难度。而数据显示，印度疫情的高峰已过，海员轮换的进程将逐渐回归正常。\n\n港口及海员劳动力的恢复，将提高港口运力，从而缓解重要港口的集装箱堆积问题。此外，中国集装箱生产企业也在加大产量，近5个月以来中国集装箱出口同比始终保持在150%以上，新增集装箱的补充和运力增加后的空箱更快返回亚洲，都将逐渐改善当前的运输效率。\n\n展望五：制造业投资能否继续修复？\n从盈利预期来看，今年企业家加大投资的意愿较强；从产能利用率来看，目前现有制造业企业产能已经得到比较充分的利用，而海外需求端还在不断走强；从资金端来看，今年企业内源性和外源性融资均具有保障，企业具有追加投资的能力。综合来看，2021年下半年制造业仍在上行通道，预计全年同比增速将在10%左右，对2019年复合同比增长3.7%。\n5.1.下半年制造业仍在上行通道\n从盈利预期来看，企业家对未来制造业的回暖保持相对乐观的态度，企业存在加大投资的意愿。对制造业投资具有领先意义的企业家信心指数自去年一季度见底以来一路快速上行，在2021年一季度达到144.7的历史最高位，同时制造业贷款需求指数也达72.2为近10年来的高位，且在三四季度随着大宗商品的价格得到控制，盈利预期有望进一步改善，故盈利端整体来看，今年制造业投资将保持景气。同时，截至2021年5月，工业企业利润当月同比高达36.4%，对2019年复合同比20.2%，利润增速的保持高位也提振了企业家信心，加强企业家主动投资扩产的意愿。\n\n从产能利用率来看，目前工业产能利用率仍在历史高位，现有制造业企业产能已经得到比较充分的利用，在全球经济复苏需求端好转的背景下，下半年对追加制造业投资的需求客观存在。2021年一季度，中国工业产能利用率为77.2%，随较去年四季度有所下滑，但是仍处在近10年来的高位。此外，截至2021年5月，固定资产投资完成额中，新建项目累计同比为15.6%，复合同比4%，复合增速自2021年以来稳步上升，且高于2020年各月份的累计同比增速。而建筑安装工程5月复合增速为5.6%，自2020年以来建安投资增速稳步上行。新建项目和建安投资的稳步增加，也在一定程度上印证了2021年市场对进一步增加制造业投资的需求客观存在。\n\n从融资状况来看，今年企业资金端具有保障，企业具有充足的资金追加投资。外源融资方面，4月中央政治局会议指出当前经济恢复尚不均衡、基础仍不稳固，稳健的货币政策要保持流动性合理充裕，强化对实体经济、重点领域、薄弱环节的支持。在此政策基调下，制造业企业的外源融资具有保障。内源融资方面，今年制造业盈利企稳回升，5月工业企业利润总额达8299亿元，处在历史高位，内源性资金的增强，亦可加强企业进一步投资的能力。\n5.2.结构方面：医药、计算机通信、中游原材料与机械制造领跑\n2021年全球的生产恢复成为主旋律，在海外需求端改善及主动补库进程开启的背景下，出口成为我国国民经济中的关键线索。计算机通信、机械设备这类典型的出口依赖型行业，面临着更好的盈利预期；疫情相关的医药制造业也由于新兴经济体的疫苗供给匮乏和疫情反复而具有较好的基本面支撑。数据上来看，最近3个月相关行业的固定资产投资完成额累计同比确实在持续地边际改善，也进一步印证了出口是今年制造业投资重要线索。出口方面，今年疫情相关的医药，宅经济和生产替代相关的计算机通信，生产复苏相关的中游原材料与机械制造预计都将具有较好表现，故对应行业也将领跑今年的制造业投资。\n\n展望六：消费修复的节奏是怎么样的？\n在疫情后的复苏路径之中，中国和海外各国出现了明显的分化。中国疫情防控得当，但政策刺激较少，故而呈现“生产强、消费弱”的格局，发达国家未能控制疫情、无法复工复产，但财政刺激规模巨大，呈现“生产弱、消费强”的局面。我们认为随着居民收入的提升和疫情影响的淡化，中国消费将会持续复苏，但由于疫情带来的长尾效应，消费恢复的速度可能仍然较慢。\n6.1.居民收入对消费的限制会逐步缓解\n从总量层面来看，中国消费恢复较慢的原因有两个：一是疫情之后的经济衰退导致中国居民的收入水平明显下降，消费能力下降。我们以城镇居民人均可支配收入的两年符合同比来衡量，直到今年一季度居民收入的增速也与疫情前的差距较大，从而限制了消费能力。但这也反映出居民消费修复的空间仍大，我们认为居民收入会随着经济的逐步复苏而稳步增加，这一因素并不会成为制约消费的长期原因。\n二是疫情导致居民的消费意愿也有所下降。居民消费支出与收入之比在疫情后降至最低点。今年一季度消费收入比再度下降，我们认为今年就地过年的政策对此产生了较大干扰。不过数据也反映出疫情仍然对居民的消费意愿有较大影响。此外，后疫情时代居民的预防性储蓄增加，也是压制消费的重要原因。随着疫情影响逐步淡化，这些因素终会消退，但居民消费意愿尤其是储蓄意愿的改变需要较长时间才能反转，所以未来消费复苏仍会是相对缓慢的过程。\n\n6.2.消费结构会逐步趋于均衡\n从结构上看，餐饮和出行相关消费仍然受到抑制；尤其是限额以下消费十分惨淡。作为占社零总额10%以上的行业，餐饮业恢复情况远远落后于平均水平。不过值得注意的是限额以上企业餐饮收入总额已经充分恢复，甚至高于疫情前水平。我们认为这反映出两个问题：第一，疫情影响导致居民外出餐饮的意愿仍然较低，总餐饮收入增速很低印证了这一点。第二，疫情期间可能很多小型企业已经倒闭，导致其消费被限额以上企业部分替代。但大量小企业的倒闭会导致很多消费场景的缺失，所以这也会影响到总量消费。小企业回归市场则需要相对更长的时间，所以消费修复的复苏也将相对缓慢。\n与外出相关的消费恢复落后于其他行业，比如服装类消费，石油类消费。由于疫情后居民出行意愿的降低，即使在去年超低的基数之下，石油类消费增长仍然疲软。但也可以看出这些行业正在边际改善，且增速提升较快。随着疫情影响的缓解，与外出相关的行业消费将有较快修复，消费结构将会更加趋于均衡。\n\n展望七：中国货币政策能否继续宽松？\n我们认为在经济复苏动力仍足、PPI存在超预期可能、美联储货币政策正常化的背景下，中国货币政策难以继续宽松。\n7.1.“德尔塔”病毒是影响货币政策的不确定性因素\n目前全球的疫情防控面临新的变数，“德尔塔”变异病毒开始肆虐全球，从南亚开始，快速对东南亚、东亚以及欧美地区的部分国家造成了严重影响。由于目前的疫苗对该病毒仍然有保护性，且欧美国家的疫苗可及性比发展中国家高得多，因此该变异病毒尚未对发达国家的疫情防控产生严重影响。近期发生在广东的中国新一轮局部疫情蔓延也得到控制，广东已连续超过10日无新增本土病例。综上，我们预期下半年，随着全球疫苗接种的进一步推进，主要经济体的疫情再次大规模爆发的可能性不大，以下货币政策展望的分析基于疫情持续控制背景下经济平稳复苏的判断。但是我们也不排除变异病毒再次让全球主要经济体停摆的尾部风险。\n\n7.2.美联储货币政策正常化会带动全球协同反应\n上文中我们提到，下半年美国货币政策正常化预期管理会加速推进将是大概率事件。在此背景下，今年以来部分新兴经济体已经开始行动，提前加息，比如巴西央行于3、5月加息两次，总共提高150个基点；俄罗斯央行于3、4月两次加息，总共提高75个基点；土耳其则于3月一次提升200个基点；韩国央行行长也公开表态在年底会上调利率。\n我们认为此轮部分新兴经济体加息，是对高通胀和应对美联储未来货币正常化风险的综合考量，也符合历史经验。市场很多观点认为，新兴经济体加息主要是应对高通胀，但高通胀本身是供需矛盾叠加全球流动性宽松的合力结果。如果单纯从经济考虑，当前很多新兴国家经济尚未完全恢复，货币政策似乎应该更多注重经济的复工复产和就业，加息的必要性不强，幅度也不应过大，这与当前已经行动的新兴经济体央行政策行为不一致。从新兴经济体的历史加息经验来看，在上一轮美联储2015年加息之前，新兴经济体往往提前准备，先行加息大约领先美联储一年左右。在美国经济恢复超预期以及美联储FMOC会议接近鹰派表述的背景下，此次新兴经济体加息应不仅仅解读为应对通胀风险，也是对未来美联储政策转向提前准备。\n\n7.3.下半年我国货币政策会保持定力，难转宽松\n二季度我国货币政策保持定力，流动性释放和回笼基本持平，社融增速缓速下降。结合前文对下半年经济形势的判断，综合以下各类因素分析，我们认为下半年我国的货币政策会继续管好货币总闸门，不会转向宽松，维持市场流动性合理充裕。虽然货币政策在总量上的不会进一步宽松，但是货币政策结构性支持实体经济发展的效能不会减。根据一季度央行货币政策执行报告，下一阶段的货币政策在管好总闸门的同时，也会进一步发挥好再贷款、再贴现和两项直达实体经济的结构性货币政策工具的牵引带动作用，这在当前和未来仍然会成为货币政策支持推动实体经济高质量转型升级的重要着力点。\n7.3.1.国际货币政策总体协调仍然是成立的\n我国货币政策遵循先内而外，以我为主，但美联储的货币政策风向预期转变对中国政策不可谓没有影响。从历史经验来看，为应对经济大幅下行风险，2014至2015年美联储缩表期间，中国央行启动多轮降准降息，货币政策明显宽松。但是在美联储启动加息的前的两个月，中国央行亦停止降息，至今没有再调整过基准利率。因此，认为美联储的货币政策完全不影响我国政策是有失偏颇的。从二季度的央行例会表述来看，与第一季度相比，措辞也更加明确“加强国际宏观经济政策协调，防范外部冲击”。\n上一轮我国降准降息政策的副作用也比较大，应当吸取教训。我国先后出现股市和各线城市房价的轮番上涨，最终股市泡沫以股灾结束，而房产泡沫则使得房价居高不下。货币政策对实体经济发展支撑有限，同时也增加了后期控制房价稳定的难度。\n\n7.3.2.货币政策目标看我国下半年转向宽松的理由不充分\n第一，从货币政策的物价目标看，下半年通胀压力会比上半年小，但PPI指数仍会较高，并非物价下行就可以宽松。当前的CPI不高，6月份公布的PMI数据也验证PPI已经大概率见顶，未来进入下行通道。虽然通胀压力比上半年要小，但下半年PPI的下降是缓慢的，通胀水平还会在高位盘整一段时间，总体压力并不小，因此我们并不认为通胀压力小了，货币政策就可以宽松，和上半年物价压力大也并不构成货币就应当紧的道理一样。\n\n第二，从货币政策的经济和就业目标来看，我们当前的就业保持景气，经济增长平稳持续恢复，高质量发展诉求高于高增速诉求，稳增长保就业压力较小。一方面，与2015年时候不同，当前决策层对经济质量的要求要高于增速的要求，不会因为一定程度的下行压力而放松货币供给。另一方面，目前中国经济恢复态势仍然较为平稳，宽松诉求不强。失业率来看，城镇调查失业率最近几个月一直下降，5月份录得5%，甚至已经低于疫情发生前的水平，保就业成果显著，压力明显降低。从经济增速来看，一季度以来的GDP增长快速恢复增速同比达到18.3%，以2019年为基期的同比增长10.25%，经济活力强劲恢复。二季度的GDP预期同比达到8.6%，世界银行6月份上调中国经济增长预期0.4个百分点，为8.5%。下半年GDP同比增长受高基数影响必然会下降，但很可能比预期更好，出口下降预计有限，消费受疫情影响有波动，但恢复的趋势不变，制造业投资预计保持较强劲的增长态势。\n第三，从货币政策的去杠杆目标来看，我们预计二季度宏观杠杆率与一季度基本持平，不再下降，保持在高位。今年一季度的杠杆率较去年四季度有所回落，降至267.8%，但主要源于一季度GDP的基数效应。根据我们测算，二季度的宏观杠杆率将与一季度基本持平，宏观杠杆率稳定在高位。控制总体杠杆的增速已然成为宏观政策的新课题，下半年经济发展同比会有放缓，但韧性较足，货币政策无需放水进一步推升宏观杠杆。\n\n第四，从人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的目标来看，年内人民币强势趋势性升值的压力并不大。4月份人民币出现一轮明显升值，5月底以来尤其美联储释放鹰派态度后，美元反弹，人民币汇率也小幅回调。我们预计下半年人民币大概率双向振荡，对货币政策指示性意义较弱。\n\n7.3.3.当前货币量价及信用在合意水平\n第一，从货币政策的价格指标看，政策利率已经处于近十几年的最低水平，基本不存在进一步宽松空间。7天逆回购利率作为政策利率，去年疫情后已经降低2.2%的水平，是近十几年来的最低水平，目前没有下调空间。市场对政策利率下调的预期也比较低。\n第二，从货币政策的量指标看，近期的流动性操作主要以维持流动性合理充裕为准，流动性的释放和回收基本持平，市场资金利率保持了平稳。二季度央行公开市场操作一共净投放不足1000亿，大部分是应对6月流动性趋紧而增加的投放，总体上可以认为二季度货币投放回笼基本持平，DR001和DR007基本保持平稳，表明银行间资金基本充裕。也就是说，资金不松不紧即可实现流动性的合理充裕。\n第三，从信用的角度看，货币供给和社融增速与名义GDP基本匹配是政策目标，目前来看也没有转向宽松的需要。今年的政府工作报告明确提出，保持货币供给和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配。从下图可以看出，无论是名义GDP的季度增长指标，还是GDP增长率代理变量——工业增加值增长率（月度环比），都与社融规模保持基本匹配。近几个月的社融增速已由年初的13%逐步下降到11%，目前我们仍然维持去年年末以来的预测，今年的社融规模增速总体会下降到10%-11%。5月M2增速录得8.3%，下半年随着基数降低可能出现小幅回升，如与社融增速结合看，基本可以实现与全年名义GDP增长基本匹配。\n总而言之，我们从多角度去分析，下半年中国货币政策转向宽松的理由均不是很充分，要注意市场出现这种预期的风险。\n\n展望八：人民币汇率的短期和长期走势如何？\n人民币汇率在近几个月经历了大起大落，对资本市场也产生了较大影响。我们认为短期内人民币将会震荡调整，但不会因此大幅贬值或进入贬值周期。中长期来看人民币仍有较强的升值基本面基础。\n8.1.短期内人民币将震荡调整，但不会进入贬值周期\n回顾去年以来各国汇率的走势，疫情是核心影响因素，人民币汇率亦是如此。去年2月份中国疫情率先爆发，人民币出现贬值。3月份海外疫情爆发并造成美元流动性危机，所有非美货币集体贬值，人民币兑美元下跌。随着5月份流动性危机缓解，中国率先走出疫情的困境，经济快速复苏，人民币进入了半年多的升值过程。今年年初美国秋冬季节的大规模疫情开始缓解，且疫苗普及加速，美元走强，人民币被动贬值。4月之后美国疫苗接种放缓，而欧洲疫苗普及加快，叠加非农数据不及预期等影响，美元兑欧元走弱，人民币兑美元也间接走强。5月下旬人民币加速升值。6月之后随着央行的调控和美联储鹰派会议，人民币兑美元出现回调。\n\n4月以来人民币已经经历了较大幅度的升值，速度过快，我们认为短期内存在调整压力。\n首先，人民币升值的速度超过了基本面基础。与去年中国率先控制疫情、强劲复苏相比，今年二季度与三季度是美国经济相对优势更加明显的阶段，人民币在这一阶段出现大幅度快速升值脱离了经济基本面基础。\n其次，从央行对汇率的态度来看，中国央行始终在避免汇率过快波动，因为这将影响金融系统和贸易体系的稳定性。5月下旬部分央行官员支持人民币升值的言论点燃了市场对人民币的升值预期，导致人民币快速升值，这其中有大量的投机因素存在。所以央行立刻表态抑制人民币过快波动。\n\n不过我们认为人民币不会因此大幅度贬值甚至进入贬值周期。\n从2015年“811”汇改以来的经验来看，央行对人民币汇率的调控都是逆周期的，并没有明确引导汇率升值或贬值的意愿，而只是抑制人民币的过快波动。而从效果来看，央行的管控只会对人民币汇率产生短期影响，很难影响大趋势。最终人民币汇率转折的基础在于经济和货币政策的基本面。所以此次央行虽然出手干预汇率，但难以就此扭转趋势。\n\n此外，从国际关系的角度来讲，目前中国正在面临中美第一阶段协议的较大压力，需要大幅进口以完成对美承诺，这客观上要求人民币汇率应保持坚挺以促进进口。中美第一阶段协议中，中国在制成品、农产品、能源产品几部分（服务贸易不易统计暂时不讨论）需要在2017年的基础上两年合计增加进口777亿美元、320亿美元及524亿美元。而根据美国口径的贸易数据，2020年中国自美国的进口量只增加了21.1亿、45.2亿和20.9亿美元，所以如果要完成中美第一阶段协议，中国今年在这三个领域需要共计增加1534亿美元的进口量。如果需要达到两年的目标，则需要分别达到149.87%，131.33%和657.69%的增速。即使不考虑填补去年的差额，2021年需要较2017年的增量也需分别达到88.82%，93.18%和443.16%。今年到目前为止的承诺完成率仍然不高，压力较大。\n从中美双方的态度来看，都有较强意愿完成第一阶段协议。美方甚至明确表示这是考虑对中国削减关税的条件之一。所以从完成进口承诺和维护中美关系的需求来看，人民币也不适宜在此时出现过大幅度的贬值。\n\n8.2.中长期人民币存在继续升值的基础\n虽然在今年下半年尤其是三季度人民币存在调整的压力。但从中长期来看人民币升值的基本面基础仍强。\n从经济长期增长的角度来看，中国经济相比之下更加稳健。在疫情期间全球主要央行都采取了大水漫灌的货币和财政政策，央行资产负债表极速扩张。相比之下，中国货币政策非常克制，M2同比增速的最高点仅与2016年之前的最低点相当。财政政策力度也有限。没有强力的刺激则意味着未来政策退出的压力也更小。事实上中国今年货币和财政政策已经基本回到正常轨道，而其它主要经济体则将面临政策退出的阵痛期。相比之下，未来中国经济增长将更加平稳，这也将增强人民币的吸引力。\n\n从通胀的角度来看，我们经过大量的分析，结果显示各国的通胀和汇率均有明显的反向关系。汇率贬值会引起通胀上升，背后是输入性通胀的影响；通胀上升也会引起汇率贬值，背后是购买力平价的原理。如上文所述，我们认为发达国家长期通胀中枢会上升，而中国通胀压力则相对较小。美国由于现金补贴、房地产过热、服务业复苏和能源价格上涨等原因引发了全面通胀，而中国CPI则处于很低的水平，这有助于维持人民币的购买力，进而支持汇率。\n从货币政策的角度来看，与2014-2016年人民币的贬值周期不同的是，目前美联储货币政策虽在正常化的途中，但中国货币政策也在“转弯”，二者是同向的，而非如2014-2016年美国收紧而中国大放水的情况。所以中国货币政策的正常化将部分抵消美联储收紧给人民币汇率带来的压力。\n风险提示：全球疫情再度蔓延，政策过快紧缩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}