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dong114
2021-06-30

What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in "equilibrium"

2021年即将步入下半场，回顾上半年A股市场，虽然上证综指走势震荡，但整体呈现向上趋势。在2021年上半年策略报告中，诺亚财富曾指出：“2021年年初市场仍有走强机会，而随着货币政策逐步回归正常、市

What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in "equilibrium"

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":153613786,"tweetId":"153613786","gmtCreate":1625021042645,"gmtModify":1703850308078,"author":{"id":3567486329036828,"idStr":"3567486329036828","authorId":3567486329036828,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153613786","repostId":1121871493,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121871493","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"走近最优秀的投资人，聆听客观表达的理性声音，只做最好的原创财富资讯，洞见独立思想，回归资本常识。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"聪明投资者","id":"1072656223","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f"},"pubTimestamp":1625020030,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121871493?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121871493","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"2021年即将步入下半场，回顾上半年A股市场，虽然上证综指走势震荡，但整体呈现向上趋势。\n在2021年上半年策略报告中，诺亚财富曾指出：“2021年年初市场仍有走强机会，而随着货币政策逐步回归正常、市","content":"2021 is about to enter the second half. Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, although the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, it showed an overall upward trend.In the strategy report for the first half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOAH\">Noah Wealth</a>Zeng pointed out: \"The market still has opportunities to strengthen at the beginning of 2021, but as monetary policy gradually returns to normal and market financing pressure continues to increase, it will face repeated pressure from high volatility.\"From the perspective of market trend, this judgment is more consistent with the final trend of the market.Looking forward to the second half of 2021, how will the general trend of the capital market develop and in which areas will opportunities appear?At the Noah Wealth Investment Strategy Conference for the Second Half of 2021 held on June 26, Dr. Xia Chun, Chief Economist of Noah Wealth, Jiang Qijia, Head of Noah Wealth's Major Asset Allocation Team, and Zhang Yihe, Head of Noah Wealth's Product Strategy Research Team, delivered keynote speeches respectively, sharing with investors Noah Wealth's prediction of the economic situation in the second half of the year and its views on major asset allocation strategies.In the second half of 2021, the market will still show a volatile trend. After about a year of economic recovery, China and the United States may experience a slowdown in economic recovery momentum, while Europe and emerging markets still have an upward trend.Regarding the current inflation risk, Noah Wealth believes that although the current inflation has brought certain difficulties to behavioral investment, the impact of inflation is only temporary, and these effects may be gradually resolved in the second half of the year. In addition, the impact of inflation on the consumer side is less than that on the production side.Today, China is in a cycle of stable currency and tight credit, and there is a mismatch between demand and supply. In the future, the allocation logic of major asset classes will be different from the allocation logic under the typical recovery path (demand-driven recovery).In terms of investment strategy, Noah Wealth has the following suggestions:1.Equity and bond balance, style balance2.Look at the duration strategy and appropriately increase the allocation of interest rate bonds; Continue to be optimistic about CTA's short and medium cycle trend following strategyThe following are the wonderful golden quotes and selected full-text records of Noah Wealth's investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021:Jiang Qijia: \"There are two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: first, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; second, can the restoration of manufacturing and consumption in domestic demand hedge the decline of real estate and funds?\"\"The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will continue to remain high and volatile。In terms of credit sinking strategies, the risks are still relatively high. \"\"In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a state of slow recovery. But with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, automobile consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.\"Zhang Yihe: \"The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns. In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced styles and strong stock mining capabilities.\"\"In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.\"\"The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices is going up during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a deviation occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.\"Xia Chun: \"Although the United States is facing a double fundamental deficit and its monetary policy is very loose, because its economic development is still better than other economies, we don't think the US dollar will depreciate quickly.\"\"The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low。The distribution of money is that a few people control a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market. \"\"Adhere to the'dumbbell strategy ', on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate those value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.\"Jiang Qijia: Interest rates may have room to declineGold price fluctuates downwardFocus on these sectors with structural opportunitiesHello audience friends, I am very happy to share with you Noah Wealth's investment strategy report for the second half of 2021. The theme of my speech today is macro and major assets.This time, our theme is \"The wind is soft, the boat is steady, and the horse's hoof is light when the snow is exhausted\". The more straightforward meaning is,The tone of asset allocation in the second half of the year is mainly balanced, which can be appropriately optimistic.Let's summarize the two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: First, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; Second, whether the recovery of manufacturing and consumption in terms of domestic demand can hedge the decline of real estate and funds.● Real estate investment faces downward pressureFirst of all, we start with the most basic\"Troika of demand\"(investment, consumption and exports) to extend.Let's look at investment in fixed assets first. In the first half of the year, investment in fixed assets rebounded slightly, real estate investment was more resilient, and the manufacturing industry also rebounded slightly. In comparison, the infrastructure investment that undertook heavy responsibilities last year was in a state of marginal decline.As real estate policies continue to tighten, we believe thatReal estate and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year may face downward pressure, and follow-up attention should be paid to manufacturing investment.Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry has continued to decline. We believe that there is a possibility of a decline in manufacturing investment in the second half of the year.● Large consumption is recovering slowly, and automobile consumption may weakenConsumption is the slowest to recover among the troika of demand, and the overall level is below the pre-epidemic level. Food and beverage investment was the strongest before the pandemic, but so far, its recovery is also the weakest.In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a slow recovery state.The core reason for the weak consumption recovery is that under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the uncertainty about the follow-up has inhibited everyone's willingness to consume, and at the same time inhibited the consumption scenario.But in the second half of the year, we should pay special attention to the main force responsible for the consumption rebound last year, namely automobile consumption. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles,Auto consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.● The total export volume is inconsistent with the global shareNext, let's look at the strongest exports. In the first half of the year, exports continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, and the export situation was quite good.But in the second half of the year, we may faceThe race between the two forces of total exports and the global share of domestic exports,The total volume of global exports may continue to rise, but our share may fluctuate downward.● Demand is stronger than supply in the first half of the year, and some commodity prices will fallAfter talking about demand, let's look at the supply situation. From the perspective of industrial added value, our production situation in the first half of the year was quite good.However, from a month-on-month perspective, supply is in a state of month-on-month decline, and we expect that the decline may continue in the second half of the year.As the production side weakens in the second half of the year, the boosting effect on PPI may gradually weaken.Inflation in the first half of the year has been relatively divergent-CPI is weak, but PPI is strong.Although the core CPI rebounded slightly in the first quarter of this year, its growth rate is still at a very low level. But we have a higher PPI and very good production.From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a certain mismatch.Demand is stronger than supply, which led to the situation that our PPI in May has risen to 9 year-on-year.In the second half of the year, as global supply recovers, there are globally priced commodities, such as rebar, copper, crude oil, etc., and we think there will be a possibility of a decline.We believe that PPI may slowly decline in the second half of the year.We can also see that commodity prices have slowly begun to cool down.● Focus on real estate post-cycle industriesFrom the perspective of housing prices, we believe that the trend of low volatility and low growth of housing prices has basically taken shape.From the perspective of the supply side of real estate loans, with the introduction of the concentration management requirements of real estate loans, the tightening of bank loans is equivalent to putting a tight spell on real estate enterprises.Is it true that the real estate industry is in a double-low trend, and there is no chance for investment in the real estate industry chain? We don't think so either. This year's real estate has seen a slow rise in the area of completed houses. We can continue to follow upPay attention to industries in the post-real estate cycle, such as property, home appliances, building materials, etc.● The market structure is balanced in the second half of the year, and there are structural opportunities in these industriesThe first half of this year was in a state of balance and shock. The industries that outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI All-Index were basically in a relatively average state. That is to say, almost half of the industries were able to outperform the CSI All-Index, which reflected the balance in the number of industries.When the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6,124 points in 2007, the \"five golden flowers\" that took the lead at that time all returned to the Jianghu this year. Steel, mining, and chemical industries performed relatively well this year. However, the growth industries that performed well last year have shown a relatively differentiated situation this year.In the first half of the year, from the perspective of consumption, medicine was stronger than food; From a technological perspective, technology-oriented sub-sectors such as electronics, innovative drugs, and biopharmaceuticals perform better, while industries such as TMT are relatively backward.In the first half of the year, the overall increase of A shares was calm, but the style rotation was thrilling.Will the market style continue in the second half of the year? Will there be a situation where the growth style strengthens again?From the perspective of macro fundamentals, the small-cap style is relatively favorable; From the interest rate side, the short-term interest rate is relatively stable, but the long-term interest rate may have a downward process as the economic recovery weakens. From this appearance, we think thatIn the second half of this year, the volatility of the growth style will be greater, and the overall performance of the growth style may not be as obvious as last year, and it is still a balanced pattern.In terms of major industries,For cyclical and technology industries, we feel that there are still structural opportunities with high cost performance。We have also seen that before, big stocks have always outperformed small stocks, but in the first half of this year, the performance of small-scale stocks is also slowly improving, so combined, weSupport the layout to second-tier blue chipsConclusion of, this PPT shows our suggestions for industry configuration in the second half of 2021。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d4edb0dad640fd8c3476dedf490485\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judging from the situation in the past few years, it is far better to participate in A-share investment by investing in funds than to speculate in stocks yourself. Judging from the situation in 2020, half of the stocks are actually falling, and only half of the stocks are rising.However, partial stock funds that have been established for one year are basically rising. This year, investing in Public Offering of Fund is also stronger than investing in A shares.● Interest rates may fall furtherLet me briefly share itBond market in the second half of the yearOutlook. We are relatively optimistic about the bond market in the second half of this year.Against the background of falling inflation, there may be room for further decline in the single interest rate level in the second half of the year. Compared with the historical situation, the long-term interest rate of the next 10-year Treasury Bond yield may still have room for 10-20 points to decline.In the first half of this year, the downward trend of credit spreads of high-grade credit bonds was obvious, but low-grade credit bonds remained at the level of high credit spreads.We believe that,The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will remain high and fluctuate in the second half of the year。 In terms of credit sinking strategy, the risk is still relatively large.● Gold price fluctuates downwardRegarding the judgment of gold in the second half of the year, we believe that there will be a downward shock.We can refer to the performance of gold prices during the Federal Reserve's taper tantrum in 2013. At the end of December 2013, although the Federal Reserve had not officially reduced its quantitative easing, or the scale of bond purchases, before that, the real interest rate had already shown a volatile upward trend. What followed was the result of the fluctuation and decline of gold prices.Referring to the trend of 2013, although the rhythm may be somewhat different, in terms of the general trend, we think that this time the tapering panic of 2013 may also be repeated.Finally, I will summarize the suggestions for the allocation of major assets in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, weIt is recommended that stocks, commodities, and real estate are all in neutral allocation, but it is relatively optimistic for bonds。Zhang Yihe: The current cycle is to \"stabilize currency and tighten credit\"Focus on Active Equity Funds with Balanced StylesHello, Noah's investors, I'm Zhang Yihe from the Investment Consulting Department. Today, I bring you the product strategy for the second half of the year. My sharing will also be divided into three parts: long stocks, bonds, and quantitative strategies.Looking back at the performance of different product strategies in the past, in 2020, stock long positions and commodity futures have made a lot of money, and the trend is relatively smooth. After the Spring Festival this year, with the adjustment of the A-share market, the profit-making effect is not as good as before.So, how should we invest in the second half of the year?● The current cycle is \"stable currency and tight credit\"FamousMerrill Lynch ClockThe model originated from a paper published by a researcher at Merrill Lynch in 2004. He divided the economic cycle into two dimensions: economic growth and inflation, corresponding to four economic cycles respectively-Recovery cycle, overheating cycle, stagflation cycle and recession cycle.Different cycles correspond to different types of investments, such as investing in stocks in the recovery cycle, investing in commodities in the overheating cycle, holding cash in the quality cycle, and holding bonds in the recession cycle.We are now in a stage of economic growth, economic slowdown, and high inflation. Does it mean that many assets currently have no opportunity? The answer is definitely no.The clock inspection effect of Merrill Lynch clock in the United States is good, but if it is used in China, it has certain problems. Because after 2012, the cyclicality of China's macroeconomic level has disappeared, and the GDP growth rate has been declining since 2012. If we look at the inflation cycle, after 2012, our CPI also lost its cyclical volatility.Therefore, from this dimension, the guiding effect of Merrill Lynch clock gradually weakens.Our research team, external brokerage investment research and other institutions are all using another set of theoretical basis-Money plus credit model。 It no longer divides the economic cycle from the two dimensions of economic growth and inflation, but from the two dimensions of looseness and tightness of money and credit.Currently, we are in a cycle of stabilizing currency and tightening credit.This cycle corresponds to the cycle of the Merrill Lynch clock similar to the cycle of stagflation.At present, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China is not consistent with that of the Federal Reserve. In the past many years, the Federal Reserve has basically been the leader of global central banks. Now, the People's Bank of China is ahead of the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy. Basically, after May last year, we have already started to collect monetary policy.● Choose an active manager with a balanced style and strong stock mining abilityUnder the cycle of stable currency and tight credit, the performance of the stock market is often poor.Is this no chance for stock bulls? Not really.The rise and fall of stock funds in the past 16 years is different from the rise and fall of CSI 300 in the past 16 years.In the past 16 years, the CSI 300 has risen for 9 years and fallen for 7 years, showing a mixed trend. However, stock funds have basically only lost money in 4 years in the past 16 years. These 4 years have certain characteristics, such as 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018, which basically correspond to external risk shocks and Domestic central banks are rapidly tightening liquidity in the short term.So don't be overly pessimistic when investing. Active fund managers can make excess returns in the market environment.Under the market trend of skyrocketing and plummeting, actively managed funds do not have much advantage. If it's a mad cow, it may be better to just buy index funds.When the market is in shock, actively managed stock funds can obtain obvious excess returns.What are the sources of excess returns? Some managers can perform band operations through timing, some managers can choose the main strong styles in the market, and some managers have relatively strong stock selection capabilities and can choose strong stocks in a certain industry track.The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns.There is no prominent main line in the recent market style. Whether it is a large-cap small-cap style or a value growth style, it is basically a relatively stable trend.In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced style, and strong stock mining ability.● The bond index is now rebounding, and it is recommended to deploy interest rate bonds, high-grade credit bonds, and partial debt hybrid fundsThe performance of the bond market is relatively uncertain, and there are probabilities of bull market, bear market, and shock market. But we believe,The bond market investment has a high winning rate, but the odds are not very certain.Let's take a look at some recent indicators,The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices has been rising during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a divergence occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.Therefore, we believe that the current bond market has certain allocation significance, especially the duration strategy.For bond strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds.In recent months, the indexes of various bonds have experienced some phased rebounds. On the one hand, they have benefited from the upward trend of interest rate bonds brought about by the downward interest rate, and on the other hand, they have come from the coupon income of credit bonds. Therefore, the indexes of various bonds have performed relatively well recently.But for the allocation of credit bonds, we stillIt is recommended not to have too much credit sinking, more inclined to make some high-grade credit bonds, because the debt risk in the market has not been lifted this year. For some bonds with relatively high risks, it is best for everyone to stay away from them to prevent the risk of stepping on thunder.For stock-bond hybrid funds, we recommendLayout debt-oriented hybrid funds, because bonds are now more cost-effective.● Recently, the commodity market is showing signs of adjustment, and we are optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategiesFinally, let's talk about quantitative strategies.There are two meanings of allocating quantitative strategies. First, its position in the portfolio is difficult to be replaced by stocks and bonds. Adding assets with relatively low correlation into the portfolio is conducive to improving the risk-return ratio of the portfolio.However, CTA strategy or market neutral strategy has relatively low correlation with traditional stock strategy and bond strategy. Adding them to the combination will have a very benign effect.In addition, when the stock market fluctuates, the performance of CTA-managed futures categories is basically relatively stable, and some tail downside risks can also be hedged in the portfolio.In China, there is still a relatively good soil for making excess returns.If compared horizontally with quantification in the United States, it is very difficult for quantitative managers in the United States to make excess returns now, because the market is very mature and there are many institutional investors, so it is basically difficult for the market to make excess returns through quantitative strategies, whether it is machine learning or multi-factor.In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the mid-to long-term trend following strategy still has opportunities: if commodity prices reverse, it will be beneficial to the mid-to long-term tracking strategy.The Federal Reserve has shown signs of turning hawkish recently. As the Federal Reserve turns hawkish and relevant domestic authorities continue to suppress commodity prices,Recently, there have been some signs of adjustment in the commodity market.If the pace of the Fed's monetary policy shift in the second half of the year is determined, the commodity market may usher in a trend reversal. At that time, there will be a very good performance stage for the medium and long-term trend following strategy.But at present we may be moreOptimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies,This type of strategy relies more on the volatility of the futures market. Recently, the volatility of the futures market is at a very high position, which is very conducive to short-to medium-term and even high-frequency CTA strategies to make excess returns.You can refer to the configuration suggestions in the table.Xia Chun: RMB is relatively stable against the US dollarEurope and emerging markets have opportunitiesFuture returns lie in earnings, not valuationFocus on Value, Small Cap StocksHello friends, today I would like to share with you our outlook for overseas macroeconomics and investment strategies in the second half of 2021.Let's start by reviewing some of our views in the first half of 2021. We believe that,The economic recovery and loose monetary policy in the first half of the year are very conducive to risky assets.The main disturbance to the market in the first half of this year was inflation, butInflation is more obvious on the production side, but the impact on the consumption side is not obvious.In the first half of this year, K-shaped reversals occurred within various assets, and K-shaped reversals are also an important keyword for investment strategies in the first half of 2021.In the second half of the year, the change is about to begin, and we have to understand the change.● Economic recovery momentum in some countries has slowed downAccording to the macro and market trends in the second half of the year, the United States may face a slowdown in economic recovery momentum in the second and third quarters, and this phenomenon may occur in China in the second quarter.On the contrary, in other places, such as European markets and emerging markets, their economic recovery is relatively moderate, so these places still maintain an upward trend.On the whole,Global economic activity conditions may be relatively stable, and there will be no huge rebound, and may remain stable or even relatively downward in the future。On the other hand,It is more likely that global financial conditions will tighten in the second half of the year. Referring to history, the reversal of liquidity will have a relatively obvious impact on the market.Inflation in the United States has increased more than expected in the past two months, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to become cautious and take inflation seriously, and will not let inflation run beyond expectations for too long. At the beginning of next year, the United States will reduce its bond buying actions.China has also tightened its financial conditions. The data of M2 and social financing conditions have all fallen from their highs recently, which will make the market usher in relatively big changes in the second half of the year, and it is likely to cause some turmoil.The current global macro situation can also be seen from some indicators. The index represented by the manufacturing industry has fallen from its high point. In addition to the manufacturing index, the earnings of the global market have also begun to gradually decline.There is still a certain gap between vaccination in Europe and emerging markets and that in the United States and the United Kingdom, which is reflected in the backwardness of manufacturing production in specific production.In the second half of the year, the United States and the United Kingdom may complete their vaccination plans, and the economy will undergo a certain transformation. For example, the manufacturing industry was very good in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the service industry may rise, and the strong demand of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year slowed down in the second half of the year.But there is still an ongoing vaccination process in Europe and emerging markets and a process of economic recovery.Overall,The global economic growth rate will basically fall from the high point in the second half of 2021 or early 2022, and the economic growth gap between emerging markets and developed countries will gradually shorten, that is, emerging markets will catch up with developed countries.● Inflation is temporary and the velocity of money remains lowOn the other hand, a particularly big factor affecting the market is inflation.In 2011, the CPI in the United States rose rapidly at that time, but this upward process was only temporary, and it began to gradually decline in the second half of the year.In the past, an important force driving inflation was the money supply. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply in the United States has gradually declined from a high point.After future economic normalization, we believe thatThe velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low。The distribution of money is that a few people master a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market.The main uncertainty is that variants of the virus may bring new shocks to production and supply. However, once inflation increases more than expected, the Fed will still take decisive action. Therefore, I don't think the market needs to worry yet.● Making money by valuation is \"outdated\", and profits will determine future returnsFrom different countries and regions,Last year's returns mainly came from valuation changes, last year's profits were basically negative, but based on forward-looking judgments, many regions still achieved good returns in 2020.However, in the first half of this year, although the return was basically positive, it was mainly driven by changes in profits. Changes in valuation are basically in a contraction stage in 2021, and are likely to continue in the second half of the year, unless the valuation adjustment makes the company's valuation significantly lower than the original situation.Most valuations have expanded greatly last year.Next, earnings will determine the performance of future returns of listed companies in different countries.● Pay attention to the development of emerging marketsIn the process of paying attention to profits, we found that the market will be relatively more optimistic about emerging markets, Europe and Asia-Pacific, so we must capture the future growth opportunities brought by profits.In the past period of time, the United States has shone its own way, butIn the future, it will become more difficult for listed companies in the United States to create more unexpected results again.In emerging markets and Europe, at present, from the perspective of profitability alone, they are more likely to perform better, and the gap between year-on-year changes in profitability is relatively larger.In the process of economic recovery, the traditional cyclical sector and the growth sector will have relatively different performances. In the past low economic growth and low interest rate environment, the growth sector performed better, while the value cycle sector was relatively backward; butIn the process of economic recovery, inflation is slowly heating up, and the cyclical sector will perform better than the growth sector.Compared with Europe and emerging markets, the cyclical sector of the S&P 500 accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the growth sector accounts for a relatively high proportion. Therefore, in the future, from the perspective of profit performance, cyclical sector, and valuation,We think there are more opportunities in the European market。● Value outperforms growth, small-cap outperforms large-capFrom the perspective of global value growth, there have been two big pullback/retracement in the past, one was the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, and the other was the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.It has been almost more than a year since the epidemic last year. Now the performance of value is obviously better than growth, and this momentum can still be maintained within two years:Value outperforms growth, and small caps outperform large caps.Understanding this, it is easy to capture very good investment opportunities. The market fell to a low point in March last year. At that time, everyone considered the value of growth. With the economic recovery and the news that vaccines are effective, the market began to enter the value sector, and the performance of small caps gradually became obvious.After these two big plunges in history, the situation that the small market is better than the large market, and the value is better than the growth has been maintained for two years.Now, this possibility still exists. At present, the global economy has not yet entered a state of complete normalization. Once it is completely normalized, especially under certain inflationary pressure, the performance of value is better than growth, which is supported by a long historical data.Of course, there are also some companies with very stable profits in the broader market, and they may perform better than large and small companies.● The US dollar will not depreciate rapidly, and the RMB will perform steadilyOn the issue of the US dollar, our view is that although the United States faces double fundamental deficits and its monetary policy is very loose, its economic development is still better than other economies, so we believe thatThe dollar will not depreciate quickly。Regarding the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, we think it will remain between 6.3 and 6.7 in the second half of the year.There are many factors driving the weakening of the U.S. dollar, but on the other hand, the U.S. economy is better than other economies, the yield of U.S. bonds is relatively higher than that of other developed economies, and the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. These have also provided certain support to the U.S. dollar.There are certain factors for the strengthening of the RMB, including the very good performance of China's economy, the purchase of Chinese assets by foreign capital, and the continuous inflow of stock and bond funds. But generally speaking, a strong RMB will also bring pressure on exports, and the dual-circulation policy will encounter certain obstacles.Although the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, compared with some other currencies, there is basically no obvious change.The central bank is stillPerformance of pursuing the relative stability of RMB relative to a basket of currencies, is not a deliberate pursuit of appreciation and depreciation against the US dollar.In the current environment, we recommend that everyone adhere to the \"dumbbell strategy\", on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the correct investment posture in the second half of the year? 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Looking for active opportunities in \"equilibrium\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n聪明投资者 \n2021-06-30 10:27\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n2021 is about to enter the second half. Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, although the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, it showed an overall upward trend.In the strategy report for the first half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOAH\">Noah Wealth</a>Zeng pointed out: \"The market still has opportunities to strengthen at the beginning of 2021, but as monetary policy gradually returns to normal and market financing pressure continues to increase, it will face repeated pressure from high volatility.\"From the perspective of market trend, this judgment is more consistent with the final trend of the market.Looking forward to the second half of 2021, how will the general trend of the capital market develop and in which areas will opportunities appear?At the Noah Wealth Investment Strategy Conference for the Second Half of 2021 held on June 26, Dr. Xia Chun, Chief Economist of Noah Wealth, Jiang Qijia, Head of Noah Wealth's Major Asset Allocation Team, and Zhang Yihe, Head of Noah Wealth's Product Strategy Research Team, delivered keynote speeches respectively, sharing with investors Noah Wealth's prediction of the economic situation in the second half of the year and its views on major asset allocation strategies.In the second half of 2021, the market will still show a volatile trend. After about a year of economic recovery, China and the United States may experience a slowdown in economic recovery momentum, while Europe and emerging markets still have an upward trend.Regarding the current inflation risk, Noah Wealth believes that although the current inflation has brought certain difficulties to behavioral investment, the impact of inflation is only temporary, and these effects may be gradually resolved in the second half of the year. In addition, the impact of inflation on the consumer side is less than that on the production side.Today, China is in a cycle of stable currency and tight credit, and there is a mismatch between demand and supply. In the future, the allocation logic of major asset classes will be different from the allocation logic under the typical recovery path (demand-driven recovery).In terms of investment strategy, Noah Wealth has the following suggestions:1.Equity and bond balance, style balance2.Look at the duration strategy and appropriately increase the allocation of interest rate bonds; Continue to be optimistic about CTA's short and medium cycle trend following strategyThe following are the wonderful golden quotes and selected full-text records of Noah Wealth's investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021:Jiang Qijia: \"There are two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: first, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; second, can the restoration of manufacturing and consumption in domestic demand hedge the decline of real estate and funds?\"\"The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will continue to remain high and volatile。In terms of credit sinking strategies, the risks are still relatively high. \"\"In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a state of slow recovery. But with the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, automobile consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.\"Zhang Yihe: \"The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns. In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced styles and strong stock mining capabilities.\"\"In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.\"\"The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices is going up during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a deviation occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.\"Xia Chun: \"Although the United States is facing a double fundamental deficit and its monetary policy is very loose, because its economic development is still better than other economies, we don't think the US dollar will depreciate quickly.\"\"The velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low。The distribution of money is that a few people control a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market. \"\"Adhere to the'dumbbell strategy ', on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate those value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.\"Jiang Qijia: Interest rates may have room to declineGold price fluctuates downwardFocus on these sectors with structural opportunitiesHello audience friends, I am very happy to share with you Noah Wealth's investment strategy report for the second half of 2021. The theme of my speech today is macro and major assets.This time, our theme is \"The wind is soft, the boat is steady, and the horse's hoof is light when the snow is exhausted\". The more straightforward meaning is,The tone of asset allocation in the second half of the year is mainly balanced, which can be appropriately optimistic.Let's summarize the two major macroeconomic highlights in the second half of the year: First, can domestic demand take over external demand when exports fall from high levels; Second, whether the recovery of manufacturing and consumption in terms of domestic demand can hedge the decline of real estate and funds.● Real estate investment faces downward pressureFirst of all, we start with the most basic\"Troika of demand\"(investment, consumption and exports) to extend.Let's look at investment in fixed assets first. In the first half of the year, investment in fixed assets rebounded slightly, real estate investment was more resilient, and the manufacturing industry also rebounded slightly. In comparison, the infrastructure investment that undertook heavy responsibilities last year was in a state of marginal decline.As real estate policies continue to tighten, we believe thatReal estate and infrastructure investment in the second half of the year may face downward pressure, and follow-up attention should be paid to manufacturing investment.Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry has continued to decline. We believe that there is a possibility of a decline in manufacturing investment in the second half of the year.● Large consumption is recovering slowly, and automobile consumption may weakenConsumption is the slowest to recover among the troika of demand, and the overall level is below the pre-epidemic level. Food and beverage investment was the strongest before the pandemic, but so far, its recovery is also the weakest.In the second half of the year, consumption will still be in a slow recovery state.The core reason for the weak consumption recovery is that under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the uncertainty about the follow-up has inhibited everyone's willingness to consume, and at the same time inhibited the consumption scenario.But in the second half of the year, we should pay special attention to the main force responsible for the consumption rebound last year, namely automobile consumption. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles,Auto consumption may weaken in the second half of the year.● The total export volume is inconsistent with the global shareNext, let's look at the strongest exports. In the first half of the year, exports continued to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, and the export situation was quite good.But in the second half of the year, we may faceThe race between the two forces of total exports and the global share of domestic exports,The total volume of global exports may continue to rise, but our share may fluctuate downward.● Demand is stronger than supply in the first half of the year, and some commodity prices will fallAfter talking about demand, let's look at the supply situation. From the perspective of industrial added value, our production situation in the first half of the year was quite good.However, from a month-on-month perspective, supply is in a state of month-on-month decline, and we expect that the decline may continue in the second half of the year.As the production side weakens in the second half of the year, the boosting effect on PPI may gradually weaken.Inflation in the first half of the year has been relatively divergent-CPI is weak, but PPI is strong.Although the core CPI rebounded slightly in the first quarter of this year, its growth rate is still at a very low level. But we have a higher PPI and very good production.From the perspective of global supply and demand, there is still a certain mismatch.Demand is stronger than supply, which led to the situation that our PPI in May has risen to 9 year-on-year.In the second half of the year, as global supply recovers, there are globally priced commodities, such as rebar, copper, crude oil, etc., and we think there will be a possibility of a decline.We believe that PPI may slowly decline in the second half of the year.We can also see that commodity prices have slowly begun to cool down.● Focus on real estate post-cycle industriesFrom the perspective of housing prices, we believe that the trend of low volatility and low growth of housing prices has basically taken shape.From the perspective of the supply side of real estate loans, with the introduction of the concentration management requirements of real estate loans, the tightening of bank loans is equivalent to putting a tight spell on real estate enterprises.Is it true that the real estate industry is in a double-low trend, and there is no chance for investment in the real estate industry chain? We don't think so either. This year's real estate has seen a slow rise in the area of completed houses. We can continue to follow upPay attention to industries in the post-real estate cycle, such as property, home appliances, building materials, etc.● The market structure is balanced in the second half of the year, and there are structural opportunities in these industriesThe first half of this year was in a state of balance and shock. The industries that outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI All-Index were basically in a relatively average state. That is to say, almost half of the industries were able to outperform the CSI All-Index, which reflected the balance in the number of industries.When the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6,124 points in 2007, the \"five golden flowers\" that took the lead at that time all returned to the Jianghu this year. Steel, mining, and chemical industries performed relatively well this year. However, the growth industries that performed well last year have shown a relatively differentiated situation this year.In the first half of the year, from the perspective of consumption, medicine was stronger than food; From a technological perspective, technology-oriented sub-sectors such as electronics, innovative drugs, and biopharmaceuticals perform better, while industries such as TMT are relatively backward.In the first half of the year, the overall increase of A shares was calm, but the style rotation was thrilling.Will the market style continue in the second half of the year? Will there be a situation where the growth style strengthens again?From the perspective of macro fundamentals, the small-cap style is relatively favorable; From the interest rate side, the short-term interest rate is relatively stable, but the long-term interest rate may have a downward process as the economic recovery weakens. From this appearance, we think thatIn the second half of this year, the volatility of the growth style will be greater, and the overall performance of the growth style may not be as obvious as last year, and it is still a balanced pattern.In terms of major industries,For cyclical and technology industries, we feel that there are still structural opportunities with high cost performance。We have also seen that before, big stocks have always outperformed small stocks, but in the first half of this year, the performance of small-scale stocks is also slowly improving, so combined, weSupport the layout to second-tier blue chipsConclusion of, this PPT shows our suggestions for industry configuration in the second half of 2021。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d4edb0dad640fd8c3476dedf490485\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judging from the situation in the past few years, it is far better to participate in A-share investment by investing in funds than to speculate in stocks yourself. Judging from the situation in 2020, half of the stocks are actually falling, and only half of the stocks are rising.However, partial stock funds that have been established for one year are basically rising. This year, investing in Public Offering of Fund is also stronger than investing in A shares.● Interest rates may fall furtherLet me briefly share itBond market in the second half of the yearOutlook. We are relatively optimistic about the bond market in the second half of this year.Against the background of falling inflation, there may be room for further decline in the single interest rate level in the second half of the year. Compared with the historical situation, the long-term interest rate of the next 10-year Treasury Bond yield may still have room for 10-20 points to decline.In the first half of this year, the downward trend of credit spreads of high-grade credit bonds was obvious, but low-grade credit bonds remained at the level of high credit spreads.We believe that,The credit spreads of low-grade credit bonds will remain high and fluctuate in the second half of the year。 In terms of credit sinking strategy, the risk is still relatively large.● Gold price fluctuates downwardRegarding the judgment of gold in the second half of the year, we believe that there will be a downward shock.We can refer to the performance of gold prices during the Federal Reserve's taper tantrum in 2013. At the end of December 2013, although the Federal Reserve had not officially reduced its quantitative easing, or the scale of bond purchases, before that, the real interest rate had already shown a volatile upward trend. What followed was the result of the fluctuation and decline of gold prices.Referring to the trend of 2013, although the rhythm may be somewhat different, in terms of the general trend, we think that this time the tapering panic of 2013 may also be repeated.Finally, I will summarize the suggestions for the allocation of major assets in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, weIt is recommended that stocks, commodities, and real estate are all in neutral allocation, but it is relatively optimistic for bonds。Zhang Yihe: The current cycle is to \"stabilize currency and tighten credit\"Focus on Active Equity Funds with Balanced StylesHello, Noah's investors, I'm Zhang Yihe from the Investment Consulting Department. Today, I bring you the product strategy for the second half of the year. My sharing will also be divided into three parts: long stocks, bonds, and quantitative strategies.Looking back at the performance of different product strategies in the past, in 2020, stock long positions and commodity futures have made a lot of money, and the trend is relatively smooth. After the Spring Festival this year, with the adjustment of the A-share market, the profit-making effect is not as good as before.So, how should we invest in the second half of the year?● The current cycle is \"stable currency and tight credit\"FamousMerrill Lynch ClockThe model originated from a paper published by a researcher at Merrill Lynch in 2004. He divided the economic cycle into two dimensions: economic growth and inflation, corresponding to four economic cycles respectively-Recovery cycle, overheating cycle, stagflation cycle and recession cycle.Different cycles correspond to different types of investments, such as investing in stocks in the recovery cycle, investing in commodities in the overheating cycle, holding cash in the quality cycle, and holding bonds in the recession cycle.We are now in a stage of economic growth, economic slowdown, and high inflation. Does it mean that many assets currently have no opportunity? The answer is definitely no.The clock inspection effect of Merrill Lynch clock in the United States is good, but if it is used in China, it has certain problems. Because after 2012, the cyclicality of China's macroeconomic level has disappeared, and the GDP growth rate has been declining since 2012. If we look at the inflation cycle, after 2012, our CPI also lost its cyclical volatility.Therefore, from this dimension, the guiding effect of Merrill Lynch clock gradually weakens.Our research team, external brokerage investment research and other institutions are all using another set of theoretical basis-Money plus credit model。 It no longer divides the economic cycle from the two dimensions of economic growth and inflation, but from the two dimensions of looseness and tightness of money and credit.Currently, we are in a cycle of stabilizing currency and tightening credit.This cycle corresponds to the cycle of the Merrill Lynch clock similar to the cycle of stagflation.At present, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China is not consistent with that of the Federal Reserve. In the past many years, the Federal Reserve has basically been the leader of global central banks. Now, the People's Bank of China is ahead of the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy. Basically, after May last year, we have already started to collect monetary policy.● Choose an active manager with a balanced style and strong stock mining abilityUnder the cycle of stable currency and tight credit, the performance of the stock market is often poor.Is this no chance for stock bulls? Not really.The rise and fall of stock funds in the past 16 years is different from the rise and fall of CSI 300 in the past 16 years.In the past 16 years, the CSI 300 has risen for 9 years and fallen for 7 years, showing a mixed trend. However, stock funds have basically only lost money in 4 years in the past 16 years. These 4 years have certain characteristics, such as 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018, which basically correspond to external risk shocks and Domestic central banks are rapidly tightening liquidity in the short term.So don't be overly pessimistic when investing. Active fund managers can make excess returns in the market environment.Under the market trend of skyrocketing and plummeting, actively managed funds do not have much advantage. If it's a mad cow, it may be better to just buy index funds.When the market is in shock, actively managed stock funds can obtain obvious excess returns.What are the sources of excess returns? Some managers can perform band operations through timing, some managers can choose the main strong styles in the market, and some managers have relatively strong stock selection capabilities and can choose strong stocks in a certain industry track.The current volatile market is conducive to actively managed stock funds making excess returns.There is no prominent main line in the recent market style. Whether it is a large-cap small-cap style or a value growth style, it is basically a relatively stable trend.In the selection of managers, we recommend choosing managers with solid research skills, balanced style, and strong stock mining ability.● The bond index is now rebounding, and it is recommended to deploy interest rate bonds, high-grade credit bonds, and partial debt hybrid fundsThe performance of the bond market is relatively uncertain, and there are probabilities of bull market, bear market, and shock market. But we believe,The bond market investment has a high winning rate, but the odds are not very certain.Let's take a look at some recent indicators,The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has been flat or even downward in the near future, but the index representing commodity prices has been rising during the same period. This deviation reflects a pessimistic view of the future economy. From the historical data point of view, once a divergence occurs, it often ends with both commodity prices and 10-year Treasury Bond yields falling.Therefore, we believe that the current bond market has certain allocation significance, especially the duration strategy.For bond strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds.In recent months, the indexes of various bonds have experienced some phased rebounds. On the one hand, they have benefited from the upward trend of interest rate bonds brought about by the downward interest rate, and on the other hand, they have come from the coupon income of credit bonds. Therefore, the indexes of various bonds have performed relatively well recently.But for the allocation of credit bonds, we stillIt is recommended not to have too much credit sinking, more inclined to make some high-grade credit bonds, because the debt risk in the market has not been lifted this year. For some bonds with relatively high risks, it is best for everyone to stay away from them to prevent the risk of stepping on thunder.For stock-bond hybrid funds, we recommendLayout debt-oriented hybrid funds, because bonds are now more cost-effective.● Recently, the commodity market is showing signs of adjustment, and we are optimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategiesFinally, let's talk about quantitative strategies.There are two meanings of allocating quantitative strategies. First, its position in the portfolio is difficult to be replaced by stocks and bonds. Adding assets with relatively low correlation into the portfolio is conducive to improving the risk-return ratio of the portfolio.However, CTA strategy or market neutral strategy has relatively low correlation with traditional stock strategy and bond strategy. Adding them to the combination will have a very benign effect.In addition, when the stock market fluctuates, the performance of CTA-managed futures categories is basically relatively stable, and some tail downside risks can also be hedged in the portfolio.In China, there is still a relatively good soil for making excess returns.If compared horizontally with quantification in the United States, it is very difficult for quantitative managers in the United States to make excess returns now, because the market is very mature and there are many institutional investors, so it is basically difficult for the market to make excess returns through quantitative strategies, whether it is machine learning or multi-factor.In China, due to the high proportion of retail investors and the high deviation between price and value, it is conducive to quantitative strategies to make excess returns. The amount of alpha in China is relatively abundant.Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the mid-to long-term trend following strategy still has opportunities: if commodity prices reverse, it will be beneficial to the mid-to long-term tracking strategy.The Federal Reserve has shown signs of turning hawkish recently. As the Federal Reserve turns hawkish and relevant domestic authorities continue to suppress commodity prices,Recently, there have been some signs of adjustment in the commodity market.If the pace of the Fed's monetary policy shift in the second half of the year is determined, the commodity market may usher in a trend reversal. At that time, there will be a very good performance stage for the medium and long-term trend following strategy.But at present we may be moreOptimistic about short-and medium-term trend tracking strategies,This type of strategy relies more on the volatility of the futures market. Recently, the volatility of the futures market is at a very high position, which is very conducive to short-to medium-term and even high-frequency CTA strategies to make excess returns.You can refer to the configuration suggestions in the table.Xia Chun: RMB is relatively stable against the US dollarEurope and emerging markets have opportunitiesFuture returns lie in earnings, not valuationFocus on Value, Small Cap StocksHello friends, today I would like to share with you our outlook for overseas macroeconomics and investment strategies in the second half of 2021.Let's start by reviewing some of our views in the first half of 2021. We believe that,The economic recovery and loose monetary policy in the first half of the year are very conducive to risky assets.The main disturbance to the market in the first half of this year was inflation, butInflation is more obvious on the production side, but the impact on the consumption side is not obvious.In the first half of this year, K-shaped reversals occurred within various assets, and K-shaped reversals are also an important keyword for investment strategies in the first half of 2021.In the second half of the year, the change is about to begin, and we have to understand the change.● Economic recovery momentum in some countries has slowed downAccording to the macro and market trends in the second half of the year, the United States may face a slowdown in economic recovery momentum in the second and third quarters, and this phenomenon may occur in China in the second quarter.On the contrary, in other places, such as European markets and emerging markets, their economic recovery is relatively moderate, so these places still maintain an upward trend.On the whole,Global economic activity conditions may be relatively stable, and there will be no huge rebound, and may remain stable or even relatively downward in the future。On the other hand,It is more likely that global financial conditions will tighten in the second half of the year. Referring to history, the reversal of liquidity will have a relatively obvious impact on the market.Inflation in the United States has increased more than expected in the past two months, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to become cautious and take inflation seriously, and will not let inflation run beyond expectations for too long. At the beginning of next year, the United States will reduce its bond buying actions.China has also tightened its financial conditions. The data of M2 and social financing conditions have all fallen from their highs recently, which will make the market usher in relatively big changes in the second half of the year, and it is likely to cause some turmoil.The current global macro situation can also be seen from some indicators. The index represented by the manufacturing industry has fallen from its high point. In addition to the manufacturing index, the earnings of the global market have also begun to gradually decline.There is still a certain gap between vaccination in Europe and emerging markets and that in the United States and the United Kingdom, which is reflected in the backwardness of manufacturing production in specific production.In the second half of the year, the United States and the United Kingdom may complete their vaccination plans, and the economy will undergo a certain transformation. For example, the manufacturing industry was very good in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the service industry may rise, and the strong demand of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year slowed down in the second half of the year.But there is still an ongoing vaccination process in Europe and emerging markets and a process of economic recovery.Overall,The global economic growth rate will basically fall from the high point in the second half of 2021 or early 2022, and the economic growth gap between emerging markets and developed countries will gradually shorten, that is, emerging markets will catch up with developed countries.● Inflation is temporary and the velocity of money remains lowOn the other hand, a particularly big factor affecting the market is inflation.In 2011, the CPI in the United States rose rapidly at that time, but this upward process was only temporary, and it began to gradually decline in the second half of the year.In the past, an important force driving inflation was the money supply. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply in the United States has gradually declined from a high point.After future economic normalization, we believe thatThe velocity of money circulation will remain relatively low。The distribution of money is that a few people master a large amount of money, and a large amount of money is saved. Relatively few of them enter the real economy, and more of them go to the capital market.The main uncertainty is that variants of the virus may bring new shocks to production and supply. However, once inflation increases more than expected, the Fed will still take decisive action. Therefore, I don't think the market needs to worry yet.● Making money by valuation is \"outdated\", and profits will determine future returnsFrom different countries and regions,Last year's returns mainly came from valuation changes, last year's profits were basically negative, but based on forward-looking judgments, many regions still achieved good returns in 2020.However, in the first half of this year, although the return was basically positive, it was mainly driven by changes in profits. Changes in valuation are basically in a contraction stage in 2021, and are likely to continue in the second half of the year, unless the valuation adjustment makes the company's valuation significantly lower than the original situation.Most valuations have expanded greatly last year.Next, earnings will determine the performance of future returns of listed companies in different countries.● Pay attention to the development of emerging marketsIn the process of paying attention to profits, we found that the market will be relatively more optimistic about emerging markets, Europe and Asia-Pacific, so we must capture the future growth opportunities brought by profits.In the past period of time, the United States has shone its own way, butIn the future, it will become more difficult for listed companies in the United States to create more unexpected results again.In emerging markets and Europe, at present, from the perspective of profitability alone, they are more likely to perform better, and the gap between year-on-year changes in profitability is relatively larger.In the process of economic recovery, the traditional cyclical sector and the growth sector will have relatively different performances. In the past low economic growth and low interest rate environment, the growth sector performed better, while the value cycle sector was relatively backward; butIn the process of economic recovery, inflation is slowly heating up, and the cyclical sector will perform better than the growth sector.Compared with Europe and emerging markets, the cyclical sector of the S&P 500 accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the growth sector accounts for a relatively high proportion. Therefore, in the future, from the perspective of profit performance, cyclical sector, and valuation,We think there are more opportunities in the European market。● Value outperforms growth, small-cap outperforms large-capFrom the perspective of global value growth, there have been two big pullback/retracement in the past, one was the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, and the other was the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.It has been almost more than a year since the epidemic last year. Now the performance of value is obviously better than growth, and this momentum can still be maintained within two years:Value outperforms growth, and small caps outperform large caps.Understanding this, it is easy to capture very good investment opportunities. The market fell to a low point in March last year. At that time, everyone considered the value of growth. With the economic recovery and the news that vaccines are effective, the market began to enter the value sector, and the performance of small caps gradually became obvious.After these two big plunges in history, the situation that the small market is better than the large market, and the value is better than the growth has been maintained for two years.Now, this possibility still exists. At present, the global economy has not yet entered a state of complete normalization. Once it is completely normalized, especially under certain inflationary pressure, the performance of value is better than growth, which is supported by a long historical data.Of course, there are also some companies with very stable profits in the broader market, and they may perform better than large and small companies.● The US dollar will not depreciate rapidly, and the RMB will perform steadilyOn the issue of the US dollar, our view is that although the United States faces double fundamental deficits and its monetary policy is very loose, its economic development is still better than other economies, so we believe thatThe dollar will not depreciate quickly。Regarding the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, we think it will remain between 6.3 and 6.7 in the second half of the year.There are many factors driving the weakening of the U.S. dollar, but on the other hand, the U.S. economy is better than other economies, the yield of U.S. bonds is relatively higher than that of other developed economies, and the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. These have also provided certain support to the U.S. dollar.There are certain factors for the strengthening of the RMB, including the very good performance of China's economy, the purchase of Chinese assets by foreign capital, and the continuous inflow of stock and bond funds. But generally speaking, a strong RMB will also bring pressure on exports, and the dual-circulation policy will encounter certain obstacles.Although the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, compared with some other currencies, there is basically no obvious change.The central bank is stillPerformance of pursuing the relative stability of RMB relative to a basket of currencies, is not a deliberate pursuit of appreciation and depreciation against the US dollar.In the current environment, we recommend that everyone adhere to the \"dumbbell strategy\", on the one hand, allocate leading technology stocks with strong profitability, and on the other hand, allocate value and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121871493","content_text":"2021年即将步入下半场，回顾上半年A股市场，虽然上证综指走势震荡，但整体呈现向上趋势。\n在2021年上半年策略报告中，诺亚财富曾指出：“2021年年初市场仍有走强机会，而随着货币政策逐步回归正常、市场融资压力的不断加大，将面临高位震荡反复压力”。\n从市场走势来看，这一判断与市场的最终走势较为吻合。\n展望2021年下半场，资本市场的大趋势将如何发展、机会又会出现在哪些领域？\n在6月26日举办的诺亚财富2021下半年投资策略会上，诺亚财富首席经济学家夏春博士、诺亚财富大类资产配置团队负责人姜奇甲、诺亚财富产品策略研究团队负责人张一鹤分别发表了主题演讲，与投资人分享了诺亚财富对下半年经济形势的预判和大类资产配置策略的看法。\n2021年下半年，市场仍将呈现震荡趋势。经过一年左右的经济复苏，中国、美国或将出现经济复苏动能减缓，而欧洲、新兴市场仍有上升趋势。\n对于目前的通胀风险，诺亚财富认为，尽管目前通胀上行为投资带来了一定难度，但是通胀的影响只是暂时的，这些影响可能在下半年都会逐步化解。另外，通胀对消费端的影响小于对于生产端的影响。\n如今，中国处于稳货币、紧信用的周期内，需求与供给存在错配现象。未来一段时间内，大类资产的配置逻辑与典型的复苏路径（需求推动型复苏）下的配置逻辑有所不同。\n在投资策略方面，诺亚财富有以下建议：\n1.股债均衡、风格均衡\n2.看好久期策略，适当增加利率债配置；继续看好CTA中短周期趋势跟踪策略\n以下是诺亚财富2021下半年投资策略会的精彩金句和精选全文实录：\n姜奇甲：“下半年的宏观经济有两大看点：第一，出口高位回落下，内需能不能接棒外需；第二，内需方面的制造业和消费的修复，能否对冲地产和基金的回落。”\n“低等级信用债的信用利差维持高位震荡的情况还会持续。在信用下沉策略上，风险还是比较大的。”\n“下半年，消费仍然会处在缓慢复苏的状态。但随着新能源汽车补贴的逐渐退出，下半年的汽车消费可能会走弱。”\n张一鹤：“目前偏震荡的行情，有利于主动管理型的股票基金做出超额收益。在管理人的选择上，我们建议选择有扎实的研究功底的、风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的管理人。”\n“在中国，由于散户占比比较高，价格与价值的偏离度较高，所以有利于量化策略做出超额收益，中国的阿尔法的量是比较丰富的。”\n“10年期国债收益率在近期是走平甚至是向下的，但是同期代表商品价格的指数在往上走，这样的背离反映了对于未来经济的偏悲观的看法。从历史数据上来看，一旦发生背离，往往最后会以商品价格和10年期国债收益率双双下行为终结。”\n夏春：“美国虽然面临着基本面双赤字，货币政策非常宽松，但是由于它的经济发展还是较其他经济体好，所以我们认为美元不会快速贬值。”\n“货币流通速度还会保持在相对低的水平。货币的分配是少数人掌握了大量的货币，大量的货币被储蓄起来，进入到实体经济的相对较少，更多去到了资本市场。”\n“坚持‘哑铃策略’，一方面配置盈利能力强的龙头科技股，另外一方面要配置那些受益于经济复苏的价值和周期板块。”\n姜奇甲：利率或有下降空间\n金价震荡下行\n关注这些有结构性机会的行业\n各位观众朋友们大家好，非常高兴能跟大家分享诺亚财富2021年下半年的投资策略报告。我今天演讲的主题是宏观与大类资产。\n这一次我们的主题是“风软扁舟稳，雪尽马蹄轻”。比较直白的意思是，下半年的资产配置基调以均衡为主，可以适当乐观。\n总结一下下半年的宏观经济的两大看点：第一，出口高位回落下，内需能不能接棒外需；第二，内需方面的制造业和消费的修复，能否对冲地产和基金的回落。\n●地产投资面临下行压力\n首先我们从最基本的“需求的三驾马车”（投资、消费和出口）上做延展。\n先看固定资产的投资，上半年固定资产投资小幅回升，地产投资韧性较强，制造业也小幅回升。相比而言，去年承担重任的基建投资是在边际回落的状态。\n在房地产政策持续收紧的状态下，我们认为下半年的地产和基建投资可能会面临下行的压力，后续要关注制造业的投资。\n从去年的三季度开始，制造业的贷款需求已经持续处在回落的状态了。我们认为，下半年制造业投资存在回落的可能性。\n●大消费缓慢复苏，汽车消费或走弱\n消费在需求的三驾马车里是修复最为缓慢的，整体水平处在疫情前的水平的下方。餐饮投资在疫情前是最强的，但是到目前为止，它的恢复也是最弱的。\n下半年，消费仍然会处在缓慢复苏的状态。\n消费修复疲软的核心的原因是，大家在疫情反复扰动的情况下，对后续的不确定性抑制了大家的消费的意愿，同时也抑制了消费的场景。\n但是在下半年我们要特别注意的是去年承担消费反弹的主力军，即汽车消费。随着新能源汽车补贴的逐渐退出，下半年的汽车消费可能会走弱。\n●出口总量与全球份额占比不一致\n接下来再看最为强劲的出口，上半年的出口持续保持在10%的同比增速的水平，出口的情况是相当好的。\n但是下半年，我们可能会面临出口的总量和国内出口占全球份额的两种力量之间的赛跑，可能全球的出口的总量持续往上，但是我们的份额却可能是波动向下。\n●上半年需求比供给更强，部分商品价格将回落\n讲完需求，我们再来看一下供给的情况。从工业增加值的角度来看，我们上半年的生产情况还是相当好的。\n但是从环比的角度来看，供给处在环比下落的状态中，我们预计下降状态在下半年还有持续的可能性。\n下半年随着生产端走弱，对于PPI的助推作用可能也会慢慢的变弱。\n上半年的通货膨胀发生了相对背离的状态——CPI较弱，但是PPI较强。\n尽管核心CPI在今年的一季度有小幅反弹，但是它的增幅还是处在非常低的位置。但我们的PPI较高，生产非常好。\n从全球供需的角度来说，还是有一定错配的，需求比供给更强，导致了我们5月份 PPI的同比已经上升到9的情况。\n下半年，随着全球供给修复，有全球定价的商品，如螺纹钢、铜、原油等，我们觉得会有回落的可能。\n我们认为PPI在下半年可能会慢慢下行。我们也可以看到商品价格已经慢慢的开始降温了。\n●关注地产后周期行业\n从房价的角度来看，我们认为房价的低波动低增长的趋势已经基本形成了。\n从房地产贷款的供给端来看，随着房地产贷款集中度管理要求的出台，银行贷款收紧，相当于给房地产企业套了紧箍咒。\n是不是房地产行业处在双低的趋势下，房地产产业链投资就没有机会了？我们也不这么认为。今年的房地产的房屋竣工的面积出现了缓慢的上升。后续我们可以继续关注地产后周期的行业，如物业、家电、建材等。\n●下半年市场格局均衡，这些行业存在结构性机会\n今年上半年是均衡震荡的状态，跑赢上证指数、中证全指的行业，基本上是处在比较平均的状态，也就是说几乎一半的行业是能够跑赢中证全指，侧面反映了行业数量上的均衡。\n在2007年沪指到6124点的时候，当时打头阵的“5朵金花”，在今年都重出江湖，钢铁、采掘、化工，今年相对来说表现较好。而去年表现较亮眼的成长类行业，今年出现了相对分化的局面。\n上半年，从消费的角度来说，医药要强于食品；从科技的角度来讲，电子、创新药、生物药这些偏科技的子行业表现较好，而TMT这种行业比较落后。\n上半年，A股的整体涨幅波澜不惊，但是风格轮动惊心动魄。\n下半年的市场风格会不会延续？会不会出现成长风格重新走强的局面？\n从宏观基本面来看，小盘风格相对利好；从利率端讲，短端利率相对平稳，但是长端利率可能随着经济复苏的减弱还有向下的过程。从这个表观来看，我们认为今年下半年成长风格的波动性会较大，整体上成长风格的表现可能不如去年明显，还是均衡的格局。\n从大类行业上来讲，周期性、科技类的行业，我们觉得仍然有结构性的机会，性价比较高。\n我们也看到，之前一直都是大票跑赢小票，但今年上半年，小规模的股票的表现也在慢慢起来，所以结合起来看，我们支持向二线蓝筹布局的结论，这张PPT展现的是2021年下半年我们对于行业配置的建议。\n\n从过去几年的情况来看，用投资基金的方式来参与A股投资，要远远要好于自己去炒股票。从2020年的情况来看，有一半的股票实际上是处在下跌的状态，只有一半的股票是上涨。\n但是成立满一年的偏股型基金，基本都是上涨的。今年同样是投资公募基金比投资A股强。\n●利率或进一步下降\n我再来简单分享一下下半年债券市场的展望。对于今年下半年的债券市场，我们相对来说是比较乐观的。\n在通胀回落的背景下，下半年的单利率水平可能有进一步下行的空间。对比历史情况来看，未来10年期国债收益率的长端利率仍有可能有10-20个点的下降空间。\n今年上半年，高等级的信用债的信用利差回落趋势是比较明显的，但是低等级的信用债却是维持在了高信用利差的水平。\n我们认为，下半年低等级信用债的信用利差维持高位震荡的情况还会持续。在信用下沉策略上，风险还是比较大的。\n●金价震荡下行\n对于下半年的黄金的判断，我们认为会出现震荡下行的结果。\n我们可以参照一下2013年，美联储的缩减恐慌时期的金价表现。在2013年的12月底，尽管在这之前美联储还没有正式缩减量化宽松，或者说缩减购债规模，但是实际利率已经出现了震荡向上的趋势。随之而来的是金价震荡下跌的结果。\n参照2013年的趋势，虽然节奏上可能会有些不同，但是从大趋势上来讲，我们觉得这一次可能也会重演2013年的缩减恐慌。\n最后我总结一下下半年对于大类资产配置的建议，总体来说，我们对于股票、商品、房地产都处于中性配置的建议，对于债券相对来说比较乐观。\n张一鹤：目前的周期是“稳货币、紧信用”\n关注风格均衡的主动型股票基金\n各位诺亚的投资人大家好，我是投资顾问部的张一鹤，今天给大家带来的是对于下半年产品策略的部分，我的分享也会分成三部分：股票多头、债券、量化策略。\n回顾过往不同产品策略的表现，2020年股票多头、商品期货基上都是赚得盆满钵满，走势比较流畅。今年春节后，伴随着A股市场的调整，赚钱效应没有之前足了。\n那么，下半年应该怎么做投资？\n●当前的周期是“稳货币、紧信用”\n著名的美林时钟模型，源自于2004年美林证券一位研究员发表的一篇论文。他将经济周期从经济增长和通胀这两个维度做了切分，分别对应4个经济周期——复苏周期，过热周期，滞涨周期和衰退周期。\n不同的周期对应不同类型的投资，比如在复苏周期投资股票，在过热周期投资商品，在质量周期持有现金，在衰退周期拿着债券。\n我们现在是处在经济增长、经济增速放缓，同时通胀高起的阶段，是不是意味着当前很多的资产都没有机会了？答案肯定是否定的。\n美林时钟在美国的时钟检验效果是不错的，但是如果拿到中国来用，它本身就存在一定的问题。因为在2012年之后，中国的宏观经济层面的周期性已经消失了，GDP增速在2012年后一直在下台阶。如果看通胀周期，在2012年后，我们的CPI也失去了周期波动性。\n所以从这个维度看，美林时钟的指引效果逐渐变弱。\n我们的研究团队、外部券商投研等机构，都在用另一套理论基础——货币加信用模型。它不再从经济增长和通胀这两个维度去做经济周期的切分，而是从货币和信用的宽紧这两个维度去切分。\n当前，我们处在稳货币、紧信用的周期。这一周期对应的美林时钟的周期类似于滞涨的周期。\n目前中国央行的节奏跟美联储是不太一致的。在过去的很多年间，美联储基本上都是全球央行的领头羊。而现在，中国央行领先于美联储收紧货币政策了。基本上在去年5月份之后，我们就已经开始在收货币政策了。\n●选择风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的主动型管理人\n在稳货币、紧信用的周期下，股市的表现往往是不好的。这对于股票多头来说是不是没机会了？并不是。\n股票型基金在过去16年间的涨跌幅，与沪深300在过去16年间的涨跌幅是不一样的。\n在过去的16年间，沪深300上涨的年份有9年，下跌的年份是7年，呈现涨跌互现的态势。但是股票型基金在过去的16年间基本只有4年亏钱，，这4个年份又有一定的特征，比如2008年、2011年、2016年和2018年，基本上都是对应着外部风险冲击及国内央行在短期内快速收紧流动性。\n所以做投资不要过度悲观。主动型的基金管理人，是能够在市场环境中做出超额收益的。\n在市场趋势性暴涨和暴跌的行情下，主动管理型的基金没有太大优势。如果是疯牛，可能只去买指数基金更好一些。\n而当市场呈现震荡时候，主动管理的股票型的基金是可以获得明显的超额收益的。\n超额收益的来源是什么？有一些管理人可以通过择时做波段操作，有些管理人能够选对市场主要的强势风格，还有一些管理人有比较强的选股能力，可以在某行业赛道里选强势的股票。\n目前偏震荡的行情，有利于主动管理型的股票基金做出超额收益。\n近期市场的风格没有比较突出的主线，不管是大盘小盘风格还是价值成长风格，基本上都是相对平稳的态势。\n在管理人的选择上，我们建议选择有扎实的研究功底的、风格偏均衡、个股挖掘能力强的管理人。\n●债券指数现反弹，建议布局利率债、高等级信用债、偏债混合型基金\n债券市场的表现是比较不确定的，牛市、熊市、震荡市发生概率都有。但是我们认为，债券市场投资胜率很高，但是赔率不是很确定的。\n我们去看近期的一些指标，10年期国债收益率在近期是走平甚至是向下的，但是同期代表商品价格的指数在往上走，这样的背离反映了对于未来经济的偏悲观的看法。从历史数据上来看，一旦发生背离，往往最后会以商品价格和10年期国债收益率双双下行为终结。\n所以我们认为当前债券市场存在一定的配置意义，尤其是久期策略。\n对于债券策略，建议关注利率债以及高等级的信用债。\n近几个月，各个债券的指数已经出现了一些阶段性的反弹，一方面得益于利率下行所带来的利率债的上行，另一方面来自于信用债方面的票息的收入，所以各债券的指数近期已经有比较好的表现了。\n但是对于信用债这块的配置，我们仍然建议不要有过多的信用下沉，更倾向做一些高等级的信用债，因为今年市场的债务风险仍然没有解除，对于一些风险比较高的债券，大家最好敬而远之，防止出现踩雷的风险。\n对于股债混合基金，我们建议布局偏债混合型的基金，因为债券的性价比现在更高。\n●近期商品市场现调整苗头，看好中短期趋势跟踪策略\n最后再聊一聊量化策略。\n配置量化策略的意义有两个，首先，它在组合中所处的地位是很难被股票和债券代替的，加入相关性比较低的资产进入投资组合，有利于提高组合的风险收益比。\n而CTA策略或者市场中性策略，跟传统意义上的股票策略和债券策略的相关性都是比较低的。把他们加入到组合里面会有非常良性的作用。\n此外，在股票市场发生震荡的情况下，CTA管理期货品类的表现基本上都比较稳健，在组合里面也可以对冲一些尾部的下行风险。\n在中国，当前还是有比较好的做出超额收益的土壤。如果跟美国的量化做横向的比较，在美国的量化的管理人现在非常难做出超额收益，因为市场非常成熟，机构投资者很多，所以市场通过量化策略，不管是机器学习还是多因子，基本上都是比较难做出超额收益的。\n在中国，由于散户占比比较高，价格与价值的偏离度较高，所以有利于量化策略做出超额收益，中国的阿尔法的量是比较丰富的。\n展望下半年，我们认为中长期的趋势跟踪策略依然具有机会：如果商品价格的出现逆转，对于中长期就是跟踪策略来说是有利的。\n美联储近期是有转鹰派的迹象，随着美联储转鹰派以及国内有关部门对于大宗商品价格的持续打压，近期商品市场已经出现了一些调整的苗头。\n如果下半年美联储货币政策转向的步调确定，商品市场可能会迎来趋势上的反转。届时对于中长期趋势跟踪策略来说，又有非常好表现的舞台了。\n但是目前我们可能更看好中短期趋势跟踪策略，这类策略更依赖期货市场的波动率。近期期货市场的波动率都处在非常高的位置，非常有利于中短期甚至是高频的CTA策略做出超额回报。\n大家可以去参考表里的配置建议。\n夏春：人民币兑美元相对稳定\n欧洲与新兴市场有机会\n未来的回报在于盈利而非估值\n关注价值股、小盘股\n各位朋友们大家好，今天和大家分享一下我们对2021年下半年海外的宏观经济与投资策略的展望。\n首先回顾一下我们在2021年上半年的一些观点。我们认为，上半年的经济复苏、宽松货币政策非常有利于风险资产。\n今年上半年对市场形成扰动的主要是通胀，但是通胀体现在生产端较明显，对消费端的影响还不明显。\n今年上半年，各个资产内部都出现了K型的反转，K型反转也是2021年上半年投资策略重要的主题词。\n到了下半年，变化即将开始，我们要去理解变化。\n●部分国家经济复苏动能减缓\n下半年的宏观与市场走势，美国可能会在二三季度面临经济复苏动能减缓，而这一现象在中国可能第二季度就会发生。\n相反，在其他一些地方，比方说像欧洲市场、新兴市场，他们的经济复原的状况相对缓和一些，所以这些地方还保持上升的势头。\n综合来讲，全球经济活动条件可能会相对平稳，不会出现巨大的反弹，未来可能会保持平稳，甚至相对有所下行。\n另外一方面，全球的金融条件在下半年收紧的可能性是比较大的。参考历史，流动性的反转会对市场造成比较明显的冲击。\n美国的通胀在过去两个月出现了超预期的增长，美联储也开始变得谨慎，开始认真对待通胀，不会让通胀超预期运行太久。在明年初，美国会进行缩减买券动作。\n中国也在金融条件上有所收紧，M2、社会融资条件的数据都在近期从高点回落，使得下半年的市场会迎来比较大的变化，很有可能会形成一些动荡。\n从一些指标中也可以看出目前全球的宏观情况，制造业所代表的指数已经从高点回落。除了制造业指数以外，全球市场的收益也开始逐步回落。\n欧洲、新兴市场的疫苗接种还是和美国、英国有一定差距，体现在具体生产上就是制造业生产落后。\n到了下半年，美国、英国可能会完成疫苗接种计划，经济会形成一定的转型。比方说上半年制造业非常好，到了下半年可能服务业会崛起，制造业上半年的强需求在下半年有所减缓。\n但欧洲和新兴市场还存在持续的疫苗接种过程，以及经济的复苏的过程。\n总体上来讲，全球经济增速基本上会在2021年下半年或2022年初从高点往下回落，在新兴市场和发达国家之间的经济增速差会逐渐缩短，即新兴市场会追上发达国家。\n●通胀是暂时的，货币流通速度保持低水平\n另外一方面，影响市场特别大的因素就是通胀。\n在2011年的时候，当时美国的CPI快速上行，但是这个上行过程也只是暂时的，下半年开始逐步走低。\n过去推动通胀上涨的重要力量就是货币供给，美国M2货币的供应同比增速已经从高点开始逐步回落。\n未来经济正常化后，我们认为货币流通速度还会保持在相对低的水平。货币的分配是少数人掌握了大量的货币，大量的货币被储蓄起来，进入到实体经济的相对较少，更多去到了资本市场。\n主要的不确定性因素是，病毒的变种可能会带来新的生产供应的冲击。不过一旦通胀出现超预期的增长，美联储还是会果断采取行动。因此我觉得市场目前还不需担心。\n●靠估值赚钱已经“过气”，盈利将决定未来的回报\n从不同的国家和地区来看，去年的回报主要是来自于估值变化，去年的盈利基本上都是负的，但是基于前瞻性的判断，很多地区在2020年还是取得了很好的回报。\n但是今年上半年，回报虽然还是基本上是正的，但主要是依靠盈利变化拉动。估值的变化在2021年基本上是处在收缩的阶段，在下半年依然有可能持续，除非估值调整使得公司估值明显的低于原来的情况。\n绝大部分估值在去年就形成了很大的扩张。接下来，盈利将决定不同国家的上市公司未来回报的表现。\n●关注新兴市场的发展\n在关注盈利的过程中，我们发现市场对新兴市场、欧洲、亚太会相对更乐观，所以我们一定要捕捉到盈利带来的未来的增长的机会。\n过去一段时间，美国表现得一枝独秀，但是未来，美国的上市公司要想再度创造更多的超预期结果，将变得比较困难。\n而在新兴市场和欧洲，目前单从盈利的角度来讲，他们表现更好的可能性会相对大一些，盈利同比的变化的差距相对更大。\n在经济复苏过程中，传统的周期板块和成长板块会有相对不同的表现。在过去低经济增长、低利率环境下，成长的板块表现比较好，价值周期板块相对比较落后；但是在经济复苏过程中，通胀慢慢升温，周期板块会相对于成长板块有更好的表现。\n相对于欧洲和新兴市场，标普500的周期板块占比较少，成长板块占比相对较高。所以未来从盈利表现、周期板块、估值的角度看，我们觉得欧洲的市场的机会更多。\n●价值优于成长，小盘优于大盘\n从全球的价值成长来看，过去两次大回撤，一次是2000年科技泡沫破灭，还有一次是2008年金融危机爆发。\n从去年疫情到现在差不多过了一年多的时间，现在价值的表现明显好于成长，两年内该势头依然可以维持：价值比成长表现更好，小盘比大盘表现更好。\n理解了这一点，就很容易捕捉非常好的投资机会。去年3月份市场跌到低点，那个时候大家考虑成长价值。随着经济复苏、疫苗有效消息出来后，市场开始进入到价值板块，同时小盘的表现渐渐明显。\n历史上这两次大跌之后，小盘好于大盘，价值好于成长的状况维持了两年时间。\n现在，这种可能性依然存在。现在全球经济还没有进入到完全正常化的状况，一旦完全正常化，特别是在一定的通胀压力下，价值的表现比成长好，是有很长的历史数据支撑的。\n当然，大盘里面也有一些盈利非常稳定的公司，他们可能跑得比大盘小盘都更好。\n●美元不会快速贬值，人民币表现稳定\n在美元问题上，我们的观点是，美国虽然面临着基本面双赤字，货币政策非常宽松，但是由于它的经济发展还是较其他经济体好，所以我们认为美元不会快速贬值。\n关于人民币相对美元的汇率，在下半年我们认为会依然维持在6.3~6.7之间。\n推动美元走软有很多因素，但另外一方面美国经济好于其他的经济体，美债的收益率比其他发达经济体要相对高一些，还有美联储在下半年很可能采取缩减买债的做法，这些也都对美元形成了一定的支撑。\n人民币有一定的走强的因素，包括中国经济的表现非常好，外资对中国资产的购买，股债资金不断流入。但是总体上来讲，人民币走得很强也会带来出口的压力，双循环的政策会遇到一定的阻碍。\n人民币对美元虽有所升值，但是相对于其他的一些货币，基本上并没有非常明显的变化。\n现在央行还是在追求人民币相对一篮子货币的相对稳定性的表现，并不是在刻意的追求对美元的升值和贬值。\n在当前的环境下，我们推荐大家坚持“哑铃策略”，一方面配置盈利能力强的龙头科技股，另外一方面要配置那些受益于经济复苏的价值和周期板块。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}