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2021-07-04

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OPEC + production increase negotiations are frozen, what does this mean for oil prices?

由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减

OPEC + production increase negotiations are frozen, what does this mean for oil prices?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":155196936,"tweetId":"155196936","gmtCreate":1625384062925,"gmtModify":1703741124484,"author":{"id":4088483890194020,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorId":4088483890194020,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155196936","repostId":2148804970,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148804970","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625283118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148804970?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 11:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + production increase negotiations are frozen, what does this mean for oil prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the term of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded that the crude oil baseline on which the country cut production was based be raised. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News previously mentioned that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production cuts will begin based on a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger.\" If the production reduction agreement does not end in April 2022 as planned, the UAE's losses will be even greater. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day,<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production reduction, that is, the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own production.</b></p><p>The UAE has long made ambitious plans to increase production and has invested billions of dollars to increase production capacity. The OPEC + production reduction agreement has left about 30% of its production capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria have requested and raised production benchmarks since the production reduction agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should also be allowed. At the end of last year, the United Arab Emirates threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks will cause market chaos and \"create crude oil market stability and clear goals are invalid\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market generally welcomed OPEC + 's initial agreement. At present, the market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, and OPEC + 's current production increase plan will not cause inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the unclear prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market currently basically takes a wait-and-see attitude. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to be open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic box, other OPEC + countries may also require similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the problems in the UAE may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is currently no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise in crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the breakdown of negotiations would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +, also have certain differences.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging growth in rival U.S. shale oil production. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that Novel Coronavirus and variants bring great uncertainty, and it is not urgent to increase production significantly before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>Multiple factors such as the UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement on increasing production make it impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely break down. At that time, all countries can increase production as they please, and OPEC + will enter an era of going its own way.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + production increase negotiations are frozen, what does this mean for oil prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + production increase negotiations are frozen, what does this mean for oil prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the term of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded that the crude oil baseline on which the country cut production was based be raised. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News previously mentioned that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production cuts will begin based on a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger.\" If the production reduction agreement does not end in April 2022 as planned, the UAE's losses will be even greater. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day,<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production reduction, that is, the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own production.</b></p><p>The UAE has long made ambitious plans to increase production and has invested billions of dollars to increase production capacity. The OPEC + production reduction agreement has left about 30% of its production capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria have requested and raised production benchmarks since the production reduction agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should also be allowed. At the end of last year, the United Arab Emirates threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks will cause market chaos and \"create crude oil market stability and clear goals are invalid\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market generally welcomed OPEC + 's initial agreement. At present, the market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, and OPEC + 's current production increase plan will not cause inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the unclear prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market currently basically takes a wait-and-see attitude. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to be open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic box, other OPEC + countries may also require similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the problems in the UAE may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is currently no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise in crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the breakdown of negotiations would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +, also have certain differences.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging growth in rival U.S. shale oil production. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that Novel Coronavirus and variants bring great uncertainty, and it is not urgent to increase production significantly before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>Multiple factors such as the UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement on increasing production make it impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely break down. At that time, all countries can increase production as they please, and OPEC + will enter an era of going its own way.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"USO":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1764,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}