?-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

2
Comment
Favorite

Bluez
2021-06-17

?

Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023

虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将

Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

2

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":163664076,"tweetId":"163664076","gmtCreate":1623883600395,"gmtModify":1703822214254,"author":{"id":3585481693131980,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorId":3585481693131980,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163664076","repostId":1109204514,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109204514","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109204514?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109204514","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将","content":"<p>Although near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases remain unchanged, this week's Fed meeting released a clear signal that more than one rate hike is more likely in two years, that is, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while reducing the excess reserve interest rate (IOER) and discount rate remain at 0.10% and 0.25% respectively.</p><p>As in the previous eight post-meeting statements, the Fed continues to promise to use its \"all-range\" policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for longer after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Different from the last bitmap is:</p><p><ul><li>Of the 18 officials who issued expectations,<b>This time, 7 people expect to go to rate hike in 2022</b>, 3 more people than expected last time,<b>The number of people accounts for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time,<b>13 people expect to meet rate hike in 2023, accounting for more than 72%</b>, 6 more people than the last expected 2023 rate hike<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who expect rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% by then,</b>Number of<b>Accounting for more than 61%</b>, 5 more people than expected last time,<b>Five people expect the interest rate to exceed 1% by then</b>, 3 more people than expected last time, the number of<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means that,<b>If a rate hike is 25 basis points</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials this time expect the Fed to conduct at least two rate hike by the end of 2023 on the current basis</b>。</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision at 2 p.m. in the eastern United States, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose above the 1.50% and 1.51% marks, turning up and rising nearly 2 basis points during the day. The decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Dow falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver dived, spot gold fell again by 0.5% during the day and fell below $1,850, falling more than $10 in the short term. Bitcoin's decline narrowed and returned to above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index rose above the two barriers of 90.70 and 90.80, setting a new one-month high.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Although near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases remain unchanged, this week's Fed meeting released a clear signal that more than one rate hike is more likely in two years, that is, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while reducing the excess reserve interest rate (IOER) and discount rate remain at 0.10% and 0.25% respectively.</p><p>As in the previous eight post-meeting statements, the Fed continues to promise to use its \"all-range\" policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for longer after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Different from the last bitmap is:</p><p><ul><li>Of the 18 officials who issued expectations,<b>This time, 7 people expect to go to rate hike in 2022</b>, 3 more people than expected last time,<b>The number of people accounts for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time,<b>13 people expect to meet rate hike in 2023, accounting for more than 72%</b>, 6 more people than the last expected 2023 rate hike<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who expect rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% by then,</b>Number of<b>Accounting for more than 61%</b>, 5 more people than expected last time,<b>Five people expect the interest rate to exceed 1% by then</b>, 3 more people than expected last time, the number of<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means that,<b>If a rate hike is 25 basis points</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials this time expect the Fed to conduct at least two rate hike by the end of 2023 on the current basis</b>。</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision at 2 p.m. in the eastern United States, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose above the 1.50% and 1.51% marks, turning up and rising nearly 2 basis points during the day. The decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Dow falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver dived, spot gold fell again by 0.5% during the day and fell below $1,850, falling more than $10 in the short term. Bitcoin's decline narrowed and returned to above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index rose above the two barriers of 90.70 and 90.80, setting a new one-month high.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109204514","content_text":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。\n和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。\n会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：\n\n在18名发布预期的官员中，本次有7人预计2022年将加息，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，人数占比将近40%。\n本次18人中有13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人。\n在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，人数占比超过61%，比上次这样预期者多5人，预计届时利率超过1%的有5人，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数占比将近30%。\n\n这意味着，若一次加息25个基点，那么，本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息。\n在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2649,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}