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2021-06-16

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If the Fed does scale back QE, which stocks should investors allocate?

本周是“超级央行周”，美联储等多家央行要公布利率决议。美国5月份通胀高达5%，创出13年新高，美联储议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这成为市场关注焦点。美联储可能开始讨论缩减购债会议纪要显示，在上次会

If the Fed does scale back QE, which stocks should investors allocate?

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U.S. inflation reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting? This has become the focus of market attention.</p><p><b>Fed may start discussing tapering bond purchases</b></p><p>At the last meeting, some Fed officials pointed out that it might be appropriate to start discussing plans to adjust the pace of bond purchases if the U.S. economy continues to make progress, minutes show.</p><p><b>At 02:00 on June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market doesn't expect the Fed to take any policy moves this time, but it may signal to the market that it is considering changing its bond-buying policy.</b>The Fed will also release new forecasts later, possibly with its first rate hike in 2023. Analysts don't expect much detail on the tapering program, but expect it to be mentioned, and the Fed is more likely to have a clearer discussion later in the summer.</p><p>According to CNBC, some analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may trigger a new \"taper tantrum.\" In this regard, CNBC studied the stocks that shined during the surge in interest rates in 2013. CNBC believes that if interest rates soar again, these stocks are expected to replicate the trend of 2013.</p><p>In 2013, the Federal Reserve said it would gradually reduce its economic stimulus measures during the Great Recession by slowing the pace of Treasury Bond purchases. The investor panic that followed led to a bond sell-off and a surge in Treasury Bond yields.</p><p>Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Monday that if the Federal Reserve signals this week that plans to begin slowing asset purchases as CPI rises, Jones expects another taper tantrum in the market.</p><p>Jones said that investors will sell fixed-income products and stocks will be corrected.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7973ab073d39d8f41a6836cd3a8c18c6\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"469\"><span>Paul Tudor Jones</span></p><p>CNBC takes stock of the best-performing stocks in the market during the market panic triggered by the last tapering of QE from May 2013 to the end of the year. At least 75% of analysts say they can consider buying these stocks today as they expect them to rise significantly over the next 12 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d0e9e5ac58908b4b65795e2ad00c27\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"889\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While tapering QE would disappoint markets, interest rates are usually rising because the economy is recovering. This is also why we see in the above stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>And other companies. As the economy gradually emerges from the pandemic haze, these companies may once again be winners this year.</p><p>It is important to note that we have only considered a single data, so the strong performance of these stocks during the 2013 taper tantrum may be unique and unreplicable. Still, these stocks are also Wall Street favorites today.</p><p>Analyst consensus estimates show that these stocks will yield more than 15% on average over the next 12 months.</p><p><b>Markets Divided on Whether to Adjust Short-Term Interest Rates</b></p><p>Observers are also divided on whether the Fed will make technical adjustments to some short-term interest rates.</p><p>As head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy at Bank of America, Cabana expects the Federal Reserve to slightly raise the rate on excess reserves due to increasing pressure in the short-term lending market.</p><p>The fiscal stimulus caused a lot of money to go into the Treasury general account, which is basically the Treasury checking account. Since these funds have been exiting the Treasury to pay for various schemes, access to money markets and the banking system has been found, creating a huge demand for short-term notes. This spurred a lot of unusually active activity in the overnight lending market and pushed down interest rates on Treasury bills.</p><p>Cabana said: \"In terms of the excess reserve rate and overnight reverse repurchase facility, we think the Fed will make moderate adjustments to the setting of these rates by 2 or 3 basis points. This is done to ensure (the Fed's) zero interest rate floor. flexibility and prevent money market outflows.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If the Fed does scale back QE, which stocks should investors allocate?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf the Fed does scale back QE, which stocks should investors allocate?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 11:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week is the \"Super Central Bank Week\", and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions. U.S. inflation reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting? This has become the focus of market attention.</p><p><b>Fed may start discussing tapering bond purchases</b></p><p>At the last meeting, some Fed officials pointed out that it might be appropriate to start discussing plans to adjust the pace of bond purchases if the U.S. economy continues to make progress, minutes show.</p><p><b>At 02:00 on June 17, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market doesn't expect the Fed to take any policy moves this time, but it may signal to the market that it is considering changing its bond-buying policy.</b>The Fed will also release new forecasts later, possibly with its first rate hike in 2023. Analysts don't expect much detail on the tapering program, but expect it to be mentioned, and the Fed is more likely to have a clearer discussion later in the summer.</p><p>According to CNBC, some analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may trigger a new \"taper tantrum.\" In this regard, CNBC studied the stocks that shined during the surge in interest rates in 2013. CNBC believes that if interest rates soar again, these stocks are expected to replicate the trend of 2013.</p><p>In 2013, the Federal Reserve said it would gradually reduce its economic stimulus measures during the Great Recession by slowing the pace of Treasury Bond purchases. The investor panic that followed led to a bond sell-off and a surge in Treasury Bond yields.</p><p>Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Monday that if the Federal Reserve signals this week that plans to begin slowing asset purchases as CPI rises, Jones expects another taper tantrum in the market.</p><p>Jones said that investors will sell fixed-income products and stocks will be corrected.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7973ab073d39d8f41a6836cd3a8c18c6\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"469\"><span>Paul Tudor Jones</span></p><p>CNBC takes stock of the best-performing stocks in the market during the market panic triggered by the last tapering of QE from May 2013 to the end of the year. At least 75% of analysts say they can consider buying these stocks today as they expect them to rise significantly over the next 12 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d0e9e5ac58908b4b65795e2ad00c27\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"889\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While tapering QE would disappoint markets, interest rates are usually rising because the economy is recovering. This is also why we see in the above stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>And other companies. As the economy gradually emerges from the pandemic haze, these companies may once again be winners this year.</p><p>It is important to note that we have only considered a single data, so the strong performance of these stocks during the 2013 taper tantrum may be unique and unreplicable. Still, these stocks are also Wall Street favorites today.</p><p>Analyst consensus estimates show that these stocks will yield more than 15% on average over the next 12 months.</p><p><b>Markets Divided on Whether to Adjust Short-Term Interest Rates</b></p><p>Observers are also divided on whether the Fed will make technical adjustments to some short-term interest rates.</p><p>As head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy at Bank of America, Cabana expects the Federal Reserve to slightly raise the rate on excess reserves due to increasing pressure in the short-term lending market.</p><p>The fiscal stimulus caused a lot of money to go into the Treasury general account, which is basically the Treasury checking account. Since these funds have been exiting the Treasury to pay for various schemes, access to money markets and the banking system has been found, creating a huge demand for short-term notes. This spurred a lot of unusually active activity in the overnight lending market and pushed down interest rates on Treasury bills.</p><p>Cabana said: \"In terms of the excess reserve rate and overnight reverse repurchase facility, we think the Fed will make moderate adjustments to the setting of these rates by 2 or 3 basis points. This is done to ensure (the Fed's) zero interest rate floor. flexibility and prevent money market outflows.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b366582fef27ac8db7ca3296d50b015","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","NOW":"ServiceNow","DHR":"丹纳赫","AMZN":"亚马逊","CI":"信诺保险","NKE":"耐克","FANG":"Diamondback Energy",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GM":"通用汽车","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","TFX":"泰利福",".DJI":"道琼斯","MU":"美光科技","AIZ":"安信龙保险",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152483519","content_text":"本周是“超级央行周”，美联储等多家央行要公布利率决议。美国5月份通胀高达5%，创出13年新高，美联储议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这成为市场关注焦点。\n美联储可能开始讨论缩减购债\n会议纪要显示，在上次会议上，一些美联储官员指出，如果美国经济继续取得进展，开始讨论调整债券购买步伐的计划可能是合适的。\n北京时间6月17日02:00，美联储将公布利率决议。市场预计美联储这次不会采取任何政策举措，但可能会向市场发出信号，表明正在考虑改变购债政策。 美联储随后还会发布新的预测，可能会在2023年首次加息。 分析师预计有关缩减购债计划的细节不会太多，但预计有人会提及该计划，而美联储更可能在夏季晚些时候进行更明确的讨论。\n据CNBC报道，有分析师预计，美联储有可能引发新的“缩减恐慌”。对此，CNBC研究了2013年利率飙升期间大放异彩的股票，CNBC认为，若利率再次飙升，这些股票有望复制2013年的走势。\n2013年，美联储表示，将通过放慢购买国债的步伐来逐步减少大衰退时期的经济刺激措施。随后来的投资者恐慌导致债券抛售和国债收益率飙升。\n亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)周一对 CNBC表示，如果美联储本周发出信号，随着CPI上涨，计划开始放缓资产购买，琼斯预计市场将再次出现缩减恐慌。\n琼斯称，投资者将会抛售固收类产品，股票也会得到修正。\nPaul Tudor Jones\nCNBC盘点了2013年5月到年底最后一次缩减QE引发市场恐慌期间，市场表现最佳的股票。至少 75%的分析师表示，可以考虑今天买入这些股票，因为他们预计这些股票未来12个月将大幅上涨。\n\n虽然缩减QE会令市场失望，但利率上升通常是因为经济正在复苏。这也是为什么我们在上述股票中看到了通用汽车、耐克等公司。随着经济逐渐走出疫情阴霾，这些公司可能再次成为今年的赢家。\n需要注意的是，我们只考虑了单一数据，因此，这些股票在2013年缩减恐慌期间的强劲表现可能是独有的，不可复制。尽管如此，这些股票也是今天华尔街的最爱。\n分析师一致预期显示，这些股票未来12个月内的平均收益率超过15%。\n是否调整短期利率，市场存在分歧\n对于美联储是否会对部分短期利率进行技术性调整，观察人士也存在分歧。\n作为美国银行美国短期利率策略主管，Cabana预计，由于短期贷款市场的压力不断增加，美联储将略微提高超额准备金的利率。\n财政刺激导致大量资金进入财政部一般账户，基本上是财政部的支票账户。由于这些资金一直在退出财政部，为各种计划买单，已经找到了进入货币市场和银行系统的途径，创造了对短期票据的巨大需求。这在隔夜借贷市场上刺激了大量异常活跃的活动，并压低了国库券的利率。\nCabana表示：“在超额准备金利率和隔夜逆回购工具方面，我们认为美联储将对这些利率的设定进行适度调整，上调2或3个基点。这样做是为了确保(美联储的)零利率下限的弹性，并防止货币市场资金流出。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DHR":0.9,"TFX":0.9,"AIZ":0.9,"FANG":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GM":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"CI":0.9,"ALK":0.9,"MU":0.9,"NOW":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"RE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2044,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}