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小白菜逆袭
2021-07-20

666

U.S. stocks plummeting or a round of travel? The fun is yet to come

周一，因新冠病例激增引发了市场对全球经济的担忧，欧美股市惨遭大范围抛售，投资者担心或将再次实施停摆措施，这将令经济复苏将放缓。全球新冠病例激增根据路透的一项数据分析，过去30天里，因每日平均住院人

U.S. stocks plummeting or a round of travel? The fun is yet to come

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":178371206,"tweetId":"178371206","gmtCreate":1626789824105,"gmtModify":1703765264612,"author":{"id":3579091027208131,"idStr":"3579091027208131","authorId":3579091027208131,"authorIdStr":"3579091027208131","name":"小白菜逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6fae3ff5fe246fa905d2a09cc814fdf","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.15","exceedPercentage":"93.58%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>666</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>666</p></body></html>","text":"666","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178371206","repostId":1195550175,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195550175","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1626782161,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195550175?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 19:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks plummeting or a round of travel? The fun is yet to come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195550175","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"周一，因新冠病例激增引发了市场对全球经济的担忧，欧美股市惨遭大范围抛售，投资者担心或将再次实施停摆措施，这将令经济复苏将放缓。\n全球新冠病例激增\n根据路透的一项数据分析，过去30天里，因每日平均住院人","content":"<p>European and American stock markets suffered a widespread sell-off on Monday as a surge in new crown cases triggered market concerns about the global economy. Investors worried that another shutdown measures might be implemented, which would slow down the economic recovery.</p><p><b>Covid cases surge worldwide</b></p><p>According to a Reuters data analysis, the average daily number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States has tripled in the past 30 days as the average daily number of hospitalizations has increased 21% from 16,000 to more than 19,000. Last week's death toll was 25% higher than the previous seven days, with an average of 250 deaths per day.</p><p>The epidemic situation in Europe is also not optimistic. France announced the fourth round of epidemic situation on the 19th, and the infection rate in Germany has risen for the 11th consecutive day.</p><p>In addition to China, the epidemic situation in Myanmar, Indonesia, India and other countries in Asia is also worsening.</p><p><b>Global stock markets were shocked for a night</b></p><p>With the outbreak of the pandemic, the market was doubtful about the economic recovery in the second half of the year, and the stock market sold off. The US Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.06%; The U.S. S&P 500 index fell 1.59%, and the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index recorded their biggest declines since mid-May; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.09%, its biggest drop since October last year.</p><p>European stock markets generally fell by more than 2%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down for four consecutive trading days, down 2.3%; France's CAC40 index fell 2.54%; The UK FTSE 100 index fell 2.34%; Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.62%.</p><p>For a time, market panic heated up sharply. The VIX panic index once soared to 25.09, a new high in two months. It fell slightly in late trading and finally closed up 21.95%. Investors have turned to safe-haven assets. The ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond was snapped up, and the yield plummeted 4.86% to 1.207%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fddc0b0ea75f0f82442b924cf9ca267c\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">VIX Hourly Chart, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Is the U.S. stock bull market over?</b></p><p>Recently, we have repeatedly mentioned the risk of a correction in U.S. stocks. For details, please refer to \"Don't be blindly optimistic anymore, Wall Street has begun to secretly short U.S. stocks\", \"The plunge in U.S. bond yields suggests that U.S. stocks are imminent?\", \"U.S. stocks may plummet 50%!\" Etc. We have always emphasized that U.S. stocks face two major risks, one is the threat of the Delta variant virus, and the other is the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>The change of the epidemic is always an unknown factor. The spread of the mutant virus may burn the previous efforts made by various countries at any time. However, it is impossible for countries to maintain economic blockades for a long time, which is not good for the economy, so we can only wait for the vaccination rate. After the increase, I believe the epidemic situation will gradually improve. However, to a certain extent, after last night's plunge, the market has digested the impact of the epidemic, and U.S. stocks may even rebound tonight.</p><p>Although the impact of the epidemic may weaken, can the degree of economic recovery in the United States support such a high stock price?</p><p>According to the report of the U.S. Business Cycle Measurement Committee, after the epidemic began, about 22 million people in the United States lost their jobs, but 2.8 million people returned to work in May 2020, and about 15 million people returned to work the following year.</p><p>At present, the second-quarter earnings season in the United States is underway, and 41 of the S&P 500 companies have already announced their earnings reports. 90% of them beat average analyst estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Analysts now expect the earnings of S&P 500 companies to increase by 72% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, much higher than the 54% forecast at the beginning of the quarter. If it is consistent with expectations, the company's performance can support the current stock price to a certain extent.</p><p>As for the Federal Reserve, it has previously claimed that inflation is temporary and will maintain its current policy unchanged. We all know that the Federal Reserve's rate hike or tightening of monetary policy will have an impact on the U.S. stock market. At present, the more dovish Federal Reserve is beneficial to the stock market. If the epidemic gets out of control, the Fed will only be more loose, so the Fed's factors can be ignored for the time being.</p><p>But in the medium and long term, the Federal Reserve will always embark on the path of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike and tapering bond purchases are imperative, which is always a hidden danger to U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Are US stocks overvalued?</b></p><p>We can make a comparison between US stocks and A shares. The current average P/E of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 29 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 6.7 times; The P/E of the S&P 500 is 32 times and the price-to-book ratio is 4.6 times; The Nasdaq has a P/E of 48 x and a price-to-book ratio of 6.1 x. Compared with P/E of Shanghai Composite Index, which is 14 times, and its price-to-book ratio is 1.5 times, P/E of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is only 13 times, and its price-to-book ratio is only 1.2 times.</p><p>It can be seen that to a certain extent, the valuation of U.S. stocks is already very high, especially the Nasdaq index, while the valuation of our Shanghai Composite Index is low, which is a value depression.</p><p>Although the financial report of the United States is relatively bright for the time being, and although the economic recovery of the United States looks beautiful, everything will be marked with a big question mark with the rate hike of the Federal Reserve in the distance and the Delta virus in the near future.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks plummeting or a round of travel? 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The fun is yet to come\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 19:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>European and American stock markets suffered a widespread sell-off on Monday as a surge in new crown cases triggered market concerns about the global economy. Investors worried that another shutdown measures might be implemented, which would slow down the economic recovery.</p><p><b>Covid cases surge worldwide</b></p><p>According to a Reuters data analysis, the average daily number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States has tripled in the past 30 days as the average daily number of hospitalizations has increased 21% from 16,000 to more than 19,000. Last week's death toll was 25% higher than the previous seven days, with an average of 250 deaths per day.</p><p>The epidemic situation in Europe is also not optimistic. France announced the fourth round of epidemic situation on the 19th, and the infection rate in Germany has risen for the 11th consecutive day.</p><p>In addition to China, the epidemic situation in Myanmar, Indonesia, India and other countries in Asia is also worsening.</p><p><b>Global stock markets were shocked for a night</b></p><p>With the outbreak of the pandemic, the market was doubtful about the economic recovery in the second half of the year, and the stock market sold off. The US Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.06%; The U.S. S&P 500 index fell 1.59%, and the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index recorded their biggest declines since mid-May; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.09%, its biggest drop since October last year.</p><p>European stock markets generally fell by more than 2%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down for four consecutive trading days, down 2.3%; France's CAC40 index fell 2.54%; The UK FTSE 100 index fell 2.34%; Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.62%.</p><p>For a time, market panic heated up sharply. The VIX panic index once soared to 25.09, a new high in two months. It fell slightly in late trading and finally closed up 21.95%. Investors have turned to safe-haven assets. The ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond was snapped up, and the yield plummeted 4.86% to 1.207%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fddc0b0ea75f0f82442b924cf9ca267c\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">VIX Hourly Chart, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Is the U.S. stock bull market over?</b></p><p>Recently, we have repeatedly mentioned the risk of a correction in U.S. stocks. For details, please refer to \"Don't be blindly optimistic anymore, Wall Street has begun to secretly short U.S. stocks\", \"The plunge in U.S. bond yields suggests that U.S. stocks are imminent?\", \"U.S. stocks may plummet 50%!\" Etc. We have always emphasized that U.S. stocks face two major risks, one is the threat of the Delta variant virus, and the other is the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>The change of the epidemic is always an unknown factor. The spread of the mutant virus may burn the previous efforts made by various countries at any time. However, it is impossible for countries to maintain economic blockades for a long time, which is not good for the economy, so we can only wait for the vaccination rate. After the increase, I believe the epidemic situation will gradually improve. However, to a certain extent, after last night's plunge, the market has digested the impact of the epidemic, and U.S. stocks may even rebound tonight.</p><p>Although the impact of the epidemic may weaken, can the degree of economic recovery in the United States support such a high stock price?</p><p>According to the report of the U.S. Business Cycle Measurement Committee, after the epidemic began, about 22 million people in the United States lost their jobs, but 2.8 million people returned to work in May 2020, and about 15 million people returned to work the following year.</p><p>At present, the second-quarter earnings season in the United States is underway, and 41 of the S&P 500 companies have already announced their earnings reports. 90% of them beat average analyst estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Analysts now expect the earnings of S&P 500 companies to increase by 72% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, much higher than the 54% forecast at the beginning of the quarter. If it is consistent with expectations, the company's performance can support the current stock price to a certain extent.</p><p>As for the Federal Reserve, it has previously claimed that inflation is temporary and will maintain its current policy unchanged. We all know that the Federal Reserve's rate hike or tightening of monetary policy will have an impact on the U.S. stock market. At present, the more dovish Federal Reserve is beneficial to the stock market. If the epidemic gets out of control, the Fed will only be more loose, so the Fed's factors can be ignored for the time being.</p><p>But in the medium and long term, the Federal Reserve will always embark on the path of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike and tapering bond purchases are imperative, which is always a hidden danger to U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Are US stocks overvalued?</b></p><p>We can make a comparison between US stocks and A shares. The current average P/E of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 29 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 6.7 times; The P/E of the S&P 500 is 32 times and the price-to-book ratio is 4.6 times; The Nasdaq has a P/E of 48 x and a price-to-book ratio of 6.1 x. Compared with P/E of Shanghai Composite Index, which is 14 times, and its price-to-book ratio is 1.5 times, P/E of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is only 13 times, and its price-to-book ratio is only 1.2 times.</p><p>It can be seen that to a certain extent, the valuation of U.S. stocks is already very high, especially the Nasdaq index, while the valuation of our Shanghai Composite Index is low, which is a value depression.</p><p>Although the financial report of the United States is relatively bright for the time being, and although the economic recovery of the United States looks beautiful, everything will be marked with a big question mark with the rate hike of the Federal Reserve in the distance and the Delta virus in the near future.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195550175","content_text":"周一，因新冠病例激增引发了市场对全球经济的担忧，欧美股市惨遭大范围抛售，投资者担心或将再次实施停摆措施，这将令经济复苏将放缓。\n全球新冠病例激增\n根据路透的一项数据分析，过去30天里，因每日平均住院人数从1.6万人增加了21%，达到逾1.9万人，美国平均每天的新增新冠病例数增加了两倍。上周的死亡人数比前七天增加了25%，平均每天有250人死亡。\n欧洲疫情也很不乐观，法国19日宣布进入第四轮疫情，德国感染率已连续第11天出现上升。\n亚洲除中国外，缅甸、印尼、印度等国家疫情也在进一步恶化。\n全球股市惊魂一夜\n随着疫情的爆发，市场对下半年经济复苏存疑，股市遭到抛售。美国纳斯达克综合指数指数下跌1.06%；美国标准普尔500指数下跌1.59%，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数录得5月中以来最大跌幅；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌2.09%，创去年10月以来最大跌幅。\n欧洲股市更是普遍下跌2%以上，泛欧斯托克600指数连续四个交易日收跌，下跌2.3%；法国CAC40指数下跌2.54%；英国富时100指数跌2.34%；德国DAX30指数跌2.62%。\n一时间，市场恐慌情绪急剧升温，VIX恐慌指数一度冲高至25.09，创两个月来新高，尾盘稍有回落，最终收涨21.95%。投资者纷纷转向避险资产。美国十年期国债遭到疯抢，收益率大跌4.86%，至1.207%。\nVIX小时图，来源：Investing.com\n美股牛市是否终结？\n近期，我们多次提及美股有回调的风险，详情可以参看“不要再盲目乐观了，华尔街已经开始偷偷做空美股了”、“美债收益率暴跌暗示美股崩盘在即？”、“美股或将暴跌50%！”等。我们一直强调美股面临着两大风险，其一为Delta变种病毒的威胁，其二为美联储缩紧货币政策。\n疫情的变化始终是一个未知的因素，变种病毒的传播随时可能将之前各国所做的努力付之一炬，但是各国又不可能长期的保持经济封锁，这对经济也不利，所以只有等待疫苗接种率的提升后，相信疫情会逐步好转。不过，一定程度上讲，经过昨晚的一轮暴跌后，市场对疫情的影响已经有所消化，今晚美股甚至可能出现反弹。\n虽然疫情的影响可能会减弱，但是美国的经济复苏程度支撑的起如此高昂的股价吗？\n据美国商业周期测定委员会报告显示，疫情开始后，美国约有2200万人失业，但是在2020年5月就有280万人重返工作岗位，在接下来的一年里约有1,500万人恢复了工作。\n目前美国第二季财报季正在进行中，标普500指数成份股企业中有41家已经公布财报。根据路孚特数据，其中90%超出了分析师的平均预期。分析师现在预计，标普500指数成分股企业4-6月季度的盈利料同比增长72%，大大高于季度初预测的54%。假如与预期一致的话，企业的业绩一定程度上是可以支撑目前的股价。\n至于美联储方面，此前一直宣称通胀是暂时的，将维持目前的政策不变。我们都知道，美联储加息或者缩紧货币政策将对美国股市造成冲击，目前较为鸽派的美联储是对股市有利的。假如疫情失控的话，美联储只会更加的宽松，所以暂时可以不考虑美联储的因素。\n但是中长期来讲，美联储始终会走上货币政策正常化的道路，加息和缩减购债是势在必行的，这对美股始终是一个隐患。\n美股高估了吗？\n我们可以用美股和A股做一个比较。目前道琼斯工业指数的平均市盈率为29倍，市净率为6.7倍；标普500指数的市盈率为32倍，市净率为4.6倍；纳斯达克的市盈率为48倍，市净率为6.1倍。而对比上证指数的市盈率为14倍，市净率为1.5倍，香港恒生指数的市盈率更是只有13倍，市净率仅为1.2倍。\n由此可见，一定程度上美股的估值已经是非常高了，特别是纳斯达克指数，而我们的上证指数估值较低，属于价值洼地。\n虽然美国的财报暂时比较亮眼，虽然美国的经济复苏看起来很美，但是在远有美联储加息虎视眈眈，近有Delta病毒环伺之下，所有的一切都将打上大大的问号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}