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AHCHUNCHONG
2021-07-17

One of the best performing assets in 100 years! Who is driving the U.S. stock market to continue to be bullish?

美国三大股指再创新高的新闻再次刷屏。纵观历史，美国股市自2009年以来基本处于连续上涨的态势，纳斯达克指数累计涨幅超8倍，位列全球第一，三大股指领跑全球，是谁在推动股市上涨，美国股市持续走牛的内在

One of the best performing assets in 100 years! Who is driving the U.S. stock market to continue to be bullish?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":179660423,"tweetId":"179660423","gmtCreate":1626519242662,"gmtModify":1703761396271,"author":{"id":3582697676184409,"idStr":"3582697676184409","authorId":3582697676184409,"authorIdStr":"3582697676184409","name":"AHCHUNCHONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1fc43258c648dc474572cf61c2ea5c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179660423","repostId":1185087957,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185087957","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"数据宝——中国股市大数据新媒体领先品牌，让您用手机也能从海量数据中获得有用的决策信息支持，数据是个宝，炒股不烦恼！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"数据宝","id":"41","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc"},"pubTimestamp":1626496845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185087957?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 12:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One of the best performing assets in 100 years! Who is driving the U.S. stock market to continue to be bullish?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185087957","media":"数据宝","summary":"美国三大股指再创新高的新闻再次刷屏。\n\n纵观历史，美国股市自2009年以来基本处于连续上涨的态势，纳斯达克指数累计涨幅超8倍，位列全球第一，三大股指领跑全球，是谁在推动股市上涨，美国股市持续走牛的内在","content":"The news that the three major U.S. stock indexes hit new highs has once again swept the screen. Throughout history, the U.S. stock market has basically been in a continuous upward trend since 2009. The Nasdaq index has increased by more than 8 times, ranking first in the world. The three major stock indexes lead the world. Who is driving the stock market up?What are the internal factors behind the continued bullish trend of the U.S. stock market?The three major U.S. stock indexes in the past 13 yearsThe cumulative increase ranks among the top three in the worldAfter the financial crisis in 2008, the global stock market started a 13-year volatile rise. From the beginning of 2009 to July 9, 2021, the cumulative increase of 17 important indexes around the world has all exceeded 60% (Note: Due to different inflation rates in various countries, the article compares the stock indexes of various countries after conversion in US dollars), among whichThe three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 2.9 times, ranking among the top three in the world, and the Nasdaq index dominated the world with an increase of 8.32 times.China's CSI 300 Index has increased by nearly 1.8 times since 2009, and the CSI 300 Index converted according to the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB has increased by more than 1.9 times during the same period. Sharp-eyed investors may have noticed that the cumulative increase of India's SENSEX30 index has reached 443%, far exceeding the A-share index. However, India's inflation is extremely serious (the cumulative inflation rate has reached 60% since 2012). After conversion in US dollars, the cumulative increase and decrease in the range has dropped to 1.1 times. The performance of the A-share index is not inferior to that of India as the market says.From the perspective of annualized rate of return,The annualized return of the Nasdaq exceeds 20%, and the annualized return of the Dow and S&P 500 exceeds 13%., the return on investment is quite high. According to a research report, stocks have been one of the best performing assets in the past 100 years, and the other asset is real estate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d5ead3651dca9e64e6e49461789f700\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">18 stocks have been in the Dow for more than 13 yearsThe cumulative increase averages more than 550%As one of the market indexes with a history of more than 120 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Note: hereinafter referred to as \"Dow\", due to the limitation of data extraction, the Dow is mainly analyzed in this paper) is not only a barometer of the American economy, but also a weather vane of the world stock market. Its rise and fall and the changes of 30 constituent stocks affect the global capital market, and these 30 constituent stocks are basically the leaders of the American economy and industry.Since 2009, the Dow has adjusted positions 8 times; After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the new economy shined brilliantly. In 2020 and 2021, the Dow adjusted three constituent stocks, with large changes. Judging from the latest list,The total market value of the 30 stocks is US $10.9 trillion, accounting for nearly 17% of the total market value of the US stock market.Among them, 18 stocks have been in the Dow for more than 13 years, and 3 stocks have been in the Dow for more than 30 years, namely<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。The constituent stocks that can be favored by the Dow Jones Industrial Average have performed well in the market. Databao statistics show that among the latest constituent stocks, the above 18 constituent stocks have an average increase of 577.32% since 2009, and the average annualized rate of return exceeds 18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>, Microsoft Corporation(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>The cumulative increase in the range exceeds 10 times. During the same period, other U.S. stocks (listed before 2009) rose by only 275%, less than half of the increase of Dow constituent stocks.June 8, 2009,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>(b)TravellerThe newly included Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased by an average of 3.2 times since its inclusion, and the average annualized rate of return is close to 16%. The rest of the U.S. stocks have only increased by 2.4 times during the same period; Newly included on June 26, 2018<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>, the company's stock price fell after inclusion, which is rare among Dow constituent stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb7afaaec3f68357c406050caee37f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The constituent stocks that were eliminated were forced out due to changes in economic form, and the market performance was unsatisfactory. Statistics show that before and after the elimination, the rise and fall of this type of stock mostly underperformed the Dow in the same period. In the first 10 days, the Dow rose by an average of 2.26%, and the excluded stocks fell by an average of 1.87% in the same period; On the 10 days after the exclusion, the excluded stocks fell by an average of 3%, and the Dow fell by an average of 1.84% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b4e261cab6b7365a550226d250d4fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Dow significantly raises weight of new economy companiesWhat is the Dow industry allocation? According to the compilation method of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, weighted by stock prices, after calculating the weights of each industry, it is found that,The weight of new economic types of enterprises has been raised, and the weight of traditional types of enterprises has been greatly lowered。 From the beginning of 2009 to the latest position adjustment in 2021, the weight increase includesHealthcare, Information Technology, Finance, Optional Consumption(b)MaterialIn other five industries, the total latest weights of the five industries raised reached 73.16%, an increase of nearly 32 percentage points from the beginning of 2009.amongInformation TechnologyThe industry weight has been raised from 14.07% in early 2009 to the current 21.86%.HealthcareThe industry weight has been raised from 9.82% in early 2009 to the current 17.09%;Daily consumptionThe industry weight has been lowered from 17.29% in early 2009 to the current 7.16%. The energy industry's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>The total weight of the Group has dropped from 14% in early 2009 to 1.96% currently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/682ce19c2229475ddf03c493dd8befd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Four major factors driving U.S. stock indexes up revealedThere is not much mystery in the compilation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just because its selection of constituent stocks is very strict, which makes the U.S. stock index a \"reference\" for global stock markets. Looking around the world, the U.S. stock index is one of the few indexes that can maintain a continuous rise, and it still outperforms other indexes in the falling market. After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, the trend of the three major U.S. stock indexes remained strong, hitting record highs in a row.What exactly is driving the stock market up?1. Changes in Dow divisors trigger butterfly effectFrom the perspective of the Dow compilation itself, the Dow point is equal to the sum of constituent stock prices divided by the Dow divisor. The Dow divisor is used to determine the influence of any of the 30 constituent stocks of the Dow. When the Dow adjusts positions or the constituent stocks are split or merged, the Dow divisor will change. From the calculation formula itself, the Dow divisor has a significant butterfly effect. When the Dow divisor decreases, the Dow point rises accordingly.According to data released by the Wall Street Journal, the number of decreases in the divisor of the Dow has not been many. On August 13, 2012, the divisor of the Dow fell to 0.129147, the lowest level since 2009; The Dow divisor was 0.147 in April 2019 and rose to 0.152 in August 2020. After the latest position adjustment, the divisor of the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped to 0.138197, that is, for every $1 increase in the price of constituent stocks, the index will increase by 7.24 points.2. New economies such as financial technology boosted the Dow's riseIn order to ensure the stability of the index, the Dow pays great attention to the consideration of industry allocation. According to the compilation method of Dow Jones Industrial Average, the weight of each industry is calculated according to the stock price;The weights of new economic enterprises such as finance and technology with better market performance have been raised, while the weights of traditional enterprises have been significantly reduced.In fact, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index also raised the weights of the technology and financial sectors during the same period, which was quite effective in promoting the index to rise. Comparing the trends of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the CSI 300 Index, it is found that the gap between the two has widened since February 2016. According to the time point of the Dow's position adjustment, it is divided into February 1, 2016 to June 25, 2018 (interval 1), June 26, 2018 to April 1, 2019 (interval 2), April 2, 2019 to August 30, 2020 (interval 3), August 31, 2020 to July 7, 2021 (interval 4), a total of 4 intervals.The CSI 300 only underperformed the Dow in Range 1 and Range 4. In interval 1, the electricity of the DowCredit services, industry, finance(b)Information TechnologySignificantly outperformed the CSI 300 Index and the same industry index, the CSI 300 Index'sDaily consumptionAnd medicalHealthcareIndustry outperformed significantly; Range 4, CSI 300 IndexTelecommunications services, finance(b)Information TechnologySignificantly underperformed the Dow industry.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b546f254ce874032220177b12e1c09\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Low valuation, low volatility, and high return support the steady rise of the indexIf the above two points are indirect factors affecting the rise and fall of the Dow,The price changes of the constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be considered as the direct cause of the index, the 18 stocks that have been in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for more than 13 years have risen far more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a total weight of over 60%.Among them, the latest weight of 7 shares has increased compared with the beginning of 2009, from 20.5% to the current 32.32%. The largest stock price increaseHome DepotThe weight increased to 6.7%, an increase of more than 4 percentage points from the beginning of 2009, the second largest increaseMicrosoft CorporationThe latest weight is close to 6%. From 2009 to now, the annualized rate of return of these seven companies has all exceeded 20%, which has become the core driving force for the Dow's rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef00051c7b8c3aa15696359e36cd800\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">CSI 300,Telecommunications servicesConstituent stocks have been dragging down the index trend. Judging from the performance of telecommunications service stocks in the range 4 and CSI 300,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600050\">China Unicom</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601698\">China Satcom</a>From August 31, 2020 to July 7, 2021, they fell by 18.44% and 34.43% respectively. The decline in performance may be the main reason for the decline in stock prices.In contrast, the performance growth of Dow constituent stocks is relatively stable. Comparing the latest fundamentals of the two index constituent stocks, the median valuation and median annualized volatility of the Dow constituent stocks (since 2009) are lower than those of the CSI 300 constituent stocks, and the return on investment (return on net assets) is twice that of the CSI 300 constituent stocks. The constituent stocks with low valuation, low volatility and high return support the steady rise of the index, so the annualized rate of return of the Dow far exceeds that of the CSI 300.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17f21acfd2c5a7514d4a4dc0eee8563\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Under the large release of water, huge amounts of funds flow into the stock marketExternal macro factors cannot be ignored.Relevant data show that the Federal Reserve's previous large releases of water have stimulated the stock market to rise。 After the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, it became the norm for the United States to release water. According to data from Vanda Research, an independent research firm, in June 2021, U.S. retail investors bought a net of approximately US $28 billion in stocks and equity funds, setting a new high in monthly inflows since 2014. Did the currency released by the United States also flow into the stock market?Comparing the monthly data of Dow Jones Industrial Average and U.S. broad money (M2), it is found that the correlation between the two is as high as 0.96. This indicates that the more M2 is released, the higher the Dow point; Under the large-scale release of water in the United States, a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market, and the large-scale release of water became an important factor driving the continuous rise of the U.S. stock market.Specifically, in 2020, the United States released US $212.17 trillion in currency (M2), a year-on-year increase of 19.14%, and the growth rate reached a record high. In the same year, US investors net bought US $368.312 billion in US stocks, a year-on-year increase. At the end of 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30606.48 points; In the first four months of 2021, the United States released US $64 trillion in M2, a year-on-year increase of 23.77%. During the same period, US investors bought a net 44.792 billion yuan in US stocks. At the end of April 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 33,874.85 points.Not only the United States, but also global assets are frantically flowing into the securities market, and A shares are no exception. It is reported that in the first half of 2021, the scale of funds flowing into global stock funds reached US $580 billion, a record high. After the COVID-19 pandemic, A-shares became a safe haven for global assets; Up to now, the net purchase of A shares through northbound capital channels during the year has reached 216.8 billion yuan, exceeding the level of the whole year of 2020;The market value of A shares held through QFII channels (at the end of 2020) exceeded 270 billion yuan, a record high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb9fc8dc982890f305777c22a2bfc11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One of the best performing assets in 100 years! Who is driving the U.S. stock market to continue to be bullish?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne of the best performing assets in 100 years! Who is driving the U.S. stock market to continue to be bullish?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/41\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/462b2cc98f70412d82b85c0c4f356ccc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n数据宝 \n2021-07-17 12:40\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe news that the three major U.S. stock indexes hit new highs has once again swept the screen. Throughout history, the U.S. stock market has basically been in a continuous upward trend since 2009. The Nasdaq index has increased by more than 8 times, ranking first in the world. The three major stock indexes lead the world. Who is driving the stock market up?What are the internal factors behind the continued bullish trend of the U.S. stock market?The three major U.S. stock indexes in the past 13 yearsThe cumulative increase ranks among the top three in the worldAfter the financial crisis in 2008, the global stock market started a 13-year volatile rise. From the beginning of 2009 to July 9, 2021, the cumulative increase of 17 important indexes around the world has all exceeded 60% (Note: Due to different inflation rates in various countries, the article compares the stock indexes of various countries after conversion in US dollars), among whichThe three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 2.9 times, ranking among the top three in the world, and the Nasdaq index dominated the world with an increase of 8.32 times.China's CSI 300 Index has increased by nearly 1.8 times since 2009, and the CSI 300 Index converted according to the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB has increased by more than 1.9 times during the same period. Sharp-eyed investors may have noticed that the cumulative increase of India's SENSEX30 index has reached 443%, far exceeding the A-share index. However, India's inflation is extremely serious (the cumulative inflation rate has reached 60% since 2012). After conversion in US dollars, the cumulative increase and decrease in the range has dropped to 1.1 times. The performance of the A-share index is not inferior to that of India as the market says.From the perspective of annualized rate of return,The annualized return of the Nasdaq exceeds 20%, and the annualized return of the Dow and S&P 500 exceeds 13%., the return on investment is quite high. According to a research report, stocks have been one of the best performing assets in the past 100 years, and the other asset is real estate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d5ead3651dca9e64e6e49461789f700\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">18 stocks have been in the Dow for more than 13 yearsThe cumulative increase averages more than 550%As one of the market indexes with a history of more than 120 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Note: hereinafter referred to as \"Dow\", due to the limitation of data extraction, the Dow is mainly analyzed in this paper) is not only a barometer of the American economy, but also a weather vane of the world stock market. Its rise and fall and the changes of 30 constituent stocks affect the global capital market, and these 30 constituent stocks are basically the leaders of the American economy and industry.Since 2009, the Dow has adjusted positions 8 times; After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the new economy shined brilliantly. In 2020 and 2021, the Dow adjusted three constituent stocks, with large changes. Judging from the latest list,The total market value of the 30 stocks is US $10.9 trillion, accounting for nearly 17% of the total market value of the US stock market.Among them, 18 stocks have been in the Dow for more than 13 years, and 3 stocks have been in the Dow for more than 30 years, namely<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。The constituent stocks that can be favored by the Dow Jones Industrial Average have performed well in the market. Databao statistics show that among the latest constituent stocks, the above 18 constituent stocks have an average increase of 577.32% since 2009, and the average annualized rate of return exceeds 18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>, Microsoft Corporation(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>The cumulative increase in the range exceeds 10 times. During the same period, other U.S. stocks (listed before 2009) rose by only 275%, less than half of the increase of Dow constituent stocks.June 8, 2009,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>(b)TravellerThe newly included Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased by an average of 3.2 times since its inclusion, and the average annualized rate of return is close to 16%. The rest of the U.S. stocks have only increased by 2.4 times during the same period; Newly included on June 26, 2018<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>, the company's stock price fell after inclusion, which is rare among Dow constituent stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb7afaaec3f68357c406050caee37f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The constituent stocks that were eliminated were forced out due to changes in economic form, and the market performance was unsatisfactory. Statistics show that before and after the elimination, the rise and fall of this type of stock mostly underperformed the Dow in the same period. In the first 10 days, the Dow rose by an average of 2.26%, and the excluded stocks fell by an average of 1.87% in the same period; On the 10 days after the exclusion, the excluded stocks fell by an average of 3%, and the Dow fell by an average of 1.84% over the same period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b4e261cab6b7365a550226d250d4fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Dow significantly raises weight of new economy companiesWhat is the Dow industry allocation? According to the compilation method of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, weighted by stock prices, after calculating the weights of each industry, it is found that,The weight of new economic types of enterprises has been raised, and the weight of traditional types of enterprises has been greatly lowered。 From the beginning of 2009 to the latest position adjustment in 2021, the weight increase includesHealthcare, Information Technology, Finance, Optional Consumption(b)MaterialIn other five industries, the total latest weights of the five industries raised reached 73.16%, an increase of nearly 32 percentage points from the beginning of 2009.amongInformation TechnologyThe industry weight has been raised from 14.07% in early 2009 to the current 21.86%.HealthcareThe industry weight has been raised from 9.82% in early 2009 to the current 17.09%;Daily consumptionThe industry weight has been lowered from 17.29% in early 2009 to the current 7.16%. The energy industry's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>The total weight of the Group has dropped from 14% in early 2009 to 1.96% currently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/682ce19c2229475ddf03c493dd8befd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Four major factors driving U.S. stock indexes up revealedThere is not much mystery in the compilation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just because its selection of constituent stocks is very strict, which makes the U.S. stock index a \"reference\" for global stock markets. Looking around the world, the U.S. stock index is one of the few indexes that can maintain a continuous rise, and it still outperforms other indexes in the falling market. After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, the trend of the three major U.S. stock indexes remained strong, hitting record highs in a row.What exactly is driving the stock market up?1. Changes in Dow divisors trigger butterfly effectFrom the perspective of the Dow compilation itself, the Dow point is equal to the sum of constituent stock prices divided by the Dow divisor. The Dow divisor is used to determine the influence of any of the 30 constituent stocks of the Dow. When the Dow adjusts positions or the constituent stocks are split or merged, the Dow divisor will change. From the calculation formula itself, the Dow divisor has a significant butterfly effect. When the Dow divisor decreases, the Dow point rises accordingly.According to data released by the Wall Street Journal, the number of decreases in the divisor of the Dow has not been many. On August 13, 2012, the divisor of the Dow fell to 0.129147, the lowest level since 2009; The Dow divisor was 0.147 in April 2019 and rose to 0.152 in August 2020. After the latest position adjustment, the divisor of the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped to 0.138197, that is, for every $1 increase in the price of constituent stocks, the index will increase by 7.24 points.2. New economies such as financial technology boosted the Dow's riseIn order to ensure the stability of the index, the Dow pays great attention to the consideration of industry allocation. According to the compilation method of Dow Jones Industrial Average, the weight of each industry is calculated according to the stock price;The weights of new economic enterprises such as finance and technology with better market performance have been raised, while the weights of traditional enterprises have been significantly reduced.In fact, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index also raised the weights of the technology and financial sectors during the same period, which was quite effective in promoting the index to rise. Comparing the trends of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the CSI 300 Index, it is found that the gap between the two has widened since February 2016. According to the time point of the Dow's position adjustment, it is divided into February 1, 2016 to June 25, 2018 (interval 1), June 26, 2018 to April 1, 2019 (interval 2), April 2, 2019 to August 30, 2020 (interval 3), August 31, 2020 to July 7, 2021 (interval 4), a total of 4 intervals.The CSI 300 only underperformed the Dow in Range 1 and Range 4. In interval 1, the electricity of the DowCredit services, industry, finance(b)Information TechnologySignificantly outperformed the CSI 300 Index and the same industry index, the CSI 300 Index'sDaily consumptionAnd medicalHealthcareIndustry outperformed significantly; Range 4, CSI 300 IndexTelecommunications services, finance(b)Information TechnologySignificantly underperformed the Dow industry.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b546f254ce874032220177b12e1c09\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Low valuation, low volatility, and high return support the steady rise of the indexIf the above two points are indirect factors affecting the rise and fall of the Dow,The price changes of the constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be considered as the direct cause of the index, the 18 stocks that have been in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for more than 13 years have risen far more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a total weight of over 60%.Among them, the latest weight of 7 shares has increased compared with the beginning of 2009, from 20.5% to the current 32.32%. The largest stock price increaseHome DepotThe weight increased to 6.7%, an increase of more than 4 percentage points from the beginning of 2009, the second largest increaseMicrosoft CorporationThe latest weight is close to 6%. From 2009 to now, the annualized rate of return of these seven companies has all exceeded 20%, which has become the core driving force for the Dow's rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef00051c7b8c3aa15696359e36cd800\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">CSI 300,Telecommunications servicesConstituent stocks have been dragging down the index trend. Judging from the performance of telecommunications service stocks in the range 4 and CSI 300,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600050\">China Unicom</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601698\">China Satcom</a>From August 31, 2020 to July 7, 2021, they fell by 18.44% and 34.43% respectively. The decline in performance may be the main reason for the decline in stock prices.In contrast, the performance growth of Dow constituent stocks is relatively stable. Comparing the latest fundamentals of the two index constituent stocks, the median valuation and median annualized volatility of the Dow constituent stocks (since 2009) are lower than those of the CSI 300 constituent stocks, and the return on investment (return on net assets) is twice that of the CSI 300 constituent stocks. The constituent stocks with low valuation, low volatility and high return support the steady rise of the index, so the annualized rate of return of the Dow far exceeds that of the CSI 300.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17f21acfd2c5a7514d4a4dc0eee8563\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Under the large release of water, huge amounts of funds flow into the stock marketExternal macro factors cannot be ignored.Relevant data show that the Federal Reserve's previous large releases of water have stimulated the stock market to rise。 After the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, it became the norm for the United States to release water. According to data from Vanda Research, an independent research firm, in June 2021, U.S. retail investors bought a net of approximately US $28 billion in stocks and equity funds, setting a new high in monthly inflows since 2014. Did the currency released by the United States also flow into the stock market?Comparing the monthly data of Dow Jones Industrial Average and U.S. broad money (M2), it is found that the correlation between the two is as high as 0.96. This indicates that the more M2 is released, the higher the Dow point; Under the large-scale release of water in the United States, a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market, and the large-scale release of water became an important factor driving the continuous rise of the U.S. stock market.Specifically, in 2020, the United States released US $212.17 trillion in currency (M2), a year-on-year increase of 19.14%, and the growth rate reached a record high. In the same year, US investors net bought US $368.312 billion in US stocks, a year-on-year increase. At the end of 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 30606.48 points; In the first four months of 2021, the United States released US $64 trillion in M2, a year-on-year increase of 23.77%. During the same period, US investors bought a net 44.792 billion yuan in US stocks. At the end of April 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 33,874.85 points.Not only the United States, but also global assets are frantically flowing into the securities market, and A shares are no exception. It is reported that in the first half of 2021, the scale of funds flowing into global stock funds reached US $580 billion, a record high. After the COVID-19 pandemic, A-shares became a safe haven for global assets; Up to now, the net purchase of A shares through northbound capital channels during the year has reached 216.8 billion yuan, exceeding the level of the whole year of 2020;The market value of A shares held through QFII channels (at the end of 2020) exceeded 270 billion yuan, a record high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb9fc8dc982890f305777c22a2bfc11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185087957","content_text":"美国三大股指再创新高的新闻再次刷屏。\n\n纵观历史，美国股市自2009年以来基本处于连续上涨的态势，纳斯达克指数累计涨幅超8倍，位列全球第一，三大股指领跑全球，是谁在推动股市上涨，美国股市持续走牛的内在因素又有哪些？\n美国三大股指近13年来\n累计涨幅名列全球前三\n2008年金融危机后，全球股市开启了长达13年的震荡上涨行情。自2009年初至2021年7月9日，全球17只重要指数的累计涨幅均超过60%（注：由于各国通货膨胀率的不同，文中将各国股指按照美元换算后作对比），其中美国三大股指涨幅均超过了2.9倍，位列全球前三，纳斯达克指数以8.32倍涨幅称霸全球。\n中国沪深300指数2009年以来累计涨幅接近1.8倍，按照美元兑人民币中间价换算后的沪深300指数同期涨幅超过1.9倍。眼尖的投资者或许注意到了印度SENSEX30指数累计涨幅达到443%，远超A股指数。但印度的通货膨胀极其严重（2012年至今累计通货膨胀率达到60%），按照美元换算后，区间累计涨跌幅降至1.1倍，A股指数表现并不像市场所说的逊色于印度。\n从年化收益率来看，纳指年化收益率超过20%，道指及标普500指数的年化收益率超过13%，投资回报相当高。一份研究报告中显示，在过去100年中，股票是表现最好的资产之一，另一资产是房产。\n\n18股入驻道指超13年\n累计涨幅平均超550%\n美国股指表现拔尖，作为有着120多年历史的市场指数之一，道琼斯工业指数（注：以下均简称“道指”，由于数据提取限制，文中主要以道指为分析对象）既是美国经济的晴雨表，又是世界股市的风向标，其涨跌以及30只成份股的变动牵动着全球资本市场，这30只成份股基本是美国经济和行业的领头羊。\n2009年以来，道指共调仓8次；新冠疫情爆发后，新经济大放异彩，2020年及2021年道指均调整了3只成份股，变动较大。从最新名单来看，30股市值合计10.9万亿美元，占全部美股市值比近17%。其中18股入驻道指超13年，3股超过30年，分别是卡特彼勒、迪士尼及摩根大通。\n能获道指青睐的成份股，市场表现均较为出色。数据宝统计显示，最新成份股中，以上18只成份股自2009年以来平均涨幅高达577.32%，平均年化收益率超过18%，家得宝、微软公司及美国运通区间累计涨幅均超过10倍。同期其它美股（2009年以前上市）涨幅仅有275%，不足道指成份股涨幅的一半。\n2009年6月8日，思科及旅行者新进纳入道指，纳入以来平均上涨3.2倍，平均年化收益率接近16%，其余美股同期涨幅仅有2.4倍；2018年6月26日新进纳入通用电气，纳入后公司股价下跌，在道指成份股中较罕见。\n\n被剔除的成份股，一是由于经济形态变迁被迫出局，二是市场表现差强人意。统计显示，在剔除前后，这一类股票的涨跌幅大多跑输同期道指，剔除前10日，道指平均上涨2.26%，剔除股同期平均下跌1.87%；剔除后10日，剔除股平均下跌3%，道指同期平均下跌1.84%。\n\n道指大幅上调新经济企业权重\n道指行业配置如何？根据道指的编制方式，按照股价加权，计算各行业权重后发现，新经济类型的企业权重被上调，传统类型企业的权重大幅下调。自2009年初至2021最新一次调仓，权重上调的有医疗保健、信息技术、金融、可选消费及材料等5个行业，上调的5行业最新权重总和达到73.16%，较2009年初增加近32个百分点。\n其中信息技术行业权重由2009年初的14.07%上调至当前的21.86%，医疗保健行业权重由2009年初的9.82%上调至当前的17.09%；日常消费行业权重由2009年初的17.29%下调至当前的7.16%，能源行业的雪佛龙及埃克森美孚的总权重由2009年初的14%下降至当前的1.96%。\n\n推动美国股指上涨四大因素揭秘\n道指的编制并无太多神秘之处，只因其对成份股的选择非常严格，使美国股指成为全球股市的“参照物”。放眼全球，美国股指是极少数能维持连续上涨的指数，在下跌行情中，仍跑赢其它指数。新冠疫情爆发后，美国三大股指走势依旧坚挺，连创历史新高，究竟是什么原因推动股市上涨？\n1、 道指除数变动引发蝴蝶效应\n从道指编制本身来看，道指点位等于成份股价格之和除以道指除数。道指除数被用于决定道指30只成分股中的任何一只股票的影响力，当道指调仓或成份股分拆、合并时，道指除数都会变动。从计算公式本身来看，道指除数有着显著的蝴蝶效应，道指除数下降，道指点位随之而上升。\n据华尔街日报公布数据显示，道指除数下降的次数并不多，2012年8月13日道指除数降至0.129147，为2009年以来最低水平；2019年4月道指除数0.147，2020年8月升至0.152。最近一次调仓后，道指除数下降至0.138197，即成份股价格每上升1美元，指数就要增加7.24个点位。\n2、金融科技等新经济助推道指上涨\n为保证指数的稳定性，道指对行业配置的考量十分讲究。根据道指的编制方式，按照股价加权，计算各行业权重；市场表现较好的金融、科技等新经济企业权重被上调，传统类型企业的权重大幅下调。\n实际上，沪深300指数同期也调高了科技、金融板块的权重，对推动指数上涨颇有成效。对比道指、沪深300指数走势发现，两者从2016年2月起拉开差距，按照道指调仓的时间点，划分2016年2月1日至2018年6月25日（区间1）、2018年6月26日至2019年4月1日（区间2）、2019年4月2日至2020年8月30日（区间3）、2020年8月31日至2021年7月7日（区间4），共4个区间。\n沪深300仅在区间1和区间4跑输道指。区间1中，道指的电信服务、工业、金融及信息技术大幅跑赢沪深300指数同行业指数，沪深300指数的日常消费及医疗保健行业大幅跑赢；区间4，沪深300指数的电信服务、金融及信息技术大幅跑输道指同行业。\n\n3、低估值、低波动、高回报支撑指数稳定上涨\n若以上两点是影响道指涨跌的间接因素，道指成份股价格变动可以认为是影响指数的直接原因，入驻道指超13年的18股涨幅远超道指，权重总和超60%。\n其中7股最新权重较2009年初增加，由20.5%上升至当前的32.32%。股价涨幅第一的家得宝权重提升至6.7%，较2009年初增加4个百分点以上，涨幅第二的微软公司最新权重接近6%。这7家公司自2009年至当前年化收益率均超过20%，成为拉动道指上涨的核心动力。\n\n沪深300中，电信服务成份股一直在拖累指数走势。以区间4、沪深300的电信服务股表现来看，中国联通、中国卫通自2020年8月31日至2021年7月7日分别下跌18.44%及34.43%，业绩下滑或是股价下跌的主因。\n相比之下，道指成份股业绩成长性较平稳。对比两指数成份股的最新基本面，道指成份股的估值中位数、年化波动率中位数（2009年以来）均低于沪深300成份股，投资回报（净资产收益率）是沪深300成份股的2倍，低估值、低波动、高回报的成份股支撑了指数稳定上涨，也因此道指年化收益率远超沪深300。\n\n4、大放水之下，巨额资金流入股市\n外在宏观因素也不能忽视。相关资料显示，美联储历次大放水均刺激股市上涨。新冠疫情爆发后，美国大放水成为常态。独立研究机构Vanda Research数据显示，2021年6月，美国散户净买入约280亿美元的股票和股票类基金，创下自2014以来的月度流入新高。美国释放的货币是否也流入了股市？\n以道指与美国广义货币（M2）的月度数据对比发现，两者相关性极高达0.96。这表明释放的M2越多，道指点位就越高；美国大放水之下，大量资金流入股市，大放水成推动美国股市不断走高的重要因素。\n具体来看，2020年美国释放货币（M2）212.17万亿美元，同比增长19.14%，增速创历史新高，同年美国投资者净买入美国股票3683.12亿美元，同比大增，2020年末道指收30606.48点；2021年前4个月美国释放M2为 64万亿美元，同比增长23.77%，同期美国投资者净买入美股447.92亿元，2021年4月末道指涨至33874.85点。\n不仅是美国，全球资产都在疯狂流入证券市场，A股也不例外。据悉，2021年上半年流入全球股票基金的资金规模达5800亿美元，创历史最高水平。新冠疫情后，A股成全球资产避风港；截至当前，年内通过北上资金渠道净买入A股达到2168亿人民币，超过2020年全年水平；通过QFII渠道持有A股（2020年末）市值超2700亿人民币，创历史新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2236,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}