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东方波澜
2021-06-10

Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity

美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。

Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity

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东方波澜
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东方波澜
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":183892143,"tweetId":"183892143","gmtCreate":1623319422282,"gmtModify":1704200791528,"author":{"id":3570426589852260,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorId":3570426589852260,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>hi</body></html>","text":"hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183892143","repostId":1141888036,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141888036","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623319167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141888036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141888036","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。","content":"Author: Xiang Jingshu/Song XuetaoIn the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, TF Securities Research InstituteSince March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, TF Securities Research InstituteFigure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research InstituteWe judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. HenceThe degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research InstituteThe U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research InstituteTwenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research InstituteReferring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research InstituteThird, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.Vaccination ProgressIt directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research InstituteThe pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n雪涛宏观笔记2021-06-10 17:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Xiang Jingshu/Song XuetaoIn the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, TF Securities Research InstituteSince March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, TF Securities Research InstituteFigure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research InstituteWe judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. HenceThe degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research InstituteThe U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research InstituteTwenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research InstituteReferring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research InstituteThird, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.Vaccination ProgressIt directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research InstituteThe pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html\">雪涛宏观笔记</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141888036","content_text":"作者：向静姝/宋雪涛\n过去2个月，美元的流动性泛滥超越了通胀、基本面和政策，主导了大类资产的走势和风格。\n过剩的流动性起源于今年3月以来美国财政部TGA账户的泄洪。TGA账户是美国财政部的现金结余或财政部一般账户，反映美国财政部大部分收入及支出。当TGA增加(减少)时，其将从银行系统中吸取(增加)储备。根据美国疫后刺激法案，2020年美国财政部融资了约4.3万亿美元，但是由于拨出缓慢，资金滞留在TGA，使得TGA在3月初存有1.4 万亿美元余额。\n8月前TGA泄洪的压力仍在。2021年2月1日，美国财政部公布TGA缩减计划，开始着手压降TGA账户余额。计划3月底缩减至8000亿美元，6月底缩减至5000亿美元，最终在7月底达到要求。但截止6月2日TGA的账户余额还有7832亿，压降速度低于计划。\n图1：TGA账户余额(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n3月至今TGA已压降了大约6800亿，整体相当于向当前所有商业银行存款余额的基础上提供了额外约8%的增量。美联储隔夜逆回购(O/N RRP)用量激增，银行吸纳容量已经接近饱和。这将对短端利率及相关的资产价格带来下行(负利率)压力。\n图2：美国隔夜逆回购规模创历史新高(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n图3：美元流动性溢价回到去年疫情期间的极低水平\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n我们判断美元的流动性拐点将出现在今年内8月。\n第一，TGA账户的泄洪在7月底截止，可能在8月由降转升。\n债务限额预案将成为TGA释放流动性的转折点。根据美国财政部5月的估计，7月底 “债务上限”豁免到期时，财政部一般账户余额将降低至大约4500亿美元;之后，随着债务发行，9月末将回升至大约7500亿美元，这意味着8、9月财政部发债将带来3000亿美元的流动性收缩。提高债务上限才能让美国政府继续举债，否则财政部只能选择停止发行国债，继续使用TGA账户和其他有限数量的“特别措施”来保持政府的资金供应。此时TGA账户余额将继续下降。一旦相关措施不能覆盖财政部的融资需要，可能导致美国政府出现技术性违约和美债评级下调。\n第二，美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。\n对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔担心“疫情会对劳动力市场造成长期的伤疤，到目前为止，我们还没有经历过那种程度的创伤”。疫情导致的劳动力市场的失衡关系，鲍威尔认为还需要一段时间才能逐渐地恢复过来。因此劳动力市场改善程度是判断美联储行动的重要路标。\n就业方面，服务业加速恢复对就业的拉动显著。5月美国非农就业人数增加55.9万人，略逊于预期的67.5万人，但好于前值26.6万人。失业率下降0.3个百分点至5.8%，好于预期的5.9%和前值6.1%。其中休闲和酒店业、公私营教育、医疗保健和社会援助等领域的工作显著增加。私人服务业新增就业达到49.2万人，为新增非农就业的主要动力。其中，休闲和酒店业表现亮眼，新增就业达到29.2万人。而随着部分地区恢复现场教学及其他与学校有关的活动，教育的就业人数也有增加。\n图4：5月非农就业分项(千人)\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n美国非农就业数据低于预期，劳动参与率走低，原因除了失业补贴较高之外，还有托儿、交通问题。失业补贴高于低收入人群平均工资在一定程度上阻碍了复工意愿;美联储褐皮书显示，由于目前多数学校尚未复课，低收入人群和女性承担更多的育儿负担;同时由于疫情导致部分公共交通班次减少带来交通便利程度下降，都是造成劳动参与率下降的原因。\n育儿方面，学生复课正在推进：许多美国学校开学时间提前到8月，5月公立和私人学校新增就业分别上升10.3万和4.1万人，说明学校在复课，这是一个积极的信号。在辉瑞新冠疫苗针对12-15周岁人群的使用得到批准后，全美各州纷纷开启针对青少年的疫苗接种工作。\n表1：低收入人群最有可能因为要照顾孩子而尚未回到劳动力市场\n\n注：数据为2015年至2019年的平均值。资料来源：stlouisfed，天风证券研究所\n过去一个月有25个州宣布疫情时期每周300美元的失业津贴(PUA)将自6月起不再发放。7-8月，伴随失业补贴退出、学生复课，劳动参与率将逐渐改善，就业市场将显著恢复。假设非农就业未来每个月平均新增60万人，美国前期受疫情冲击而萎缩的就业规模，将在9月恢复至75%左右，并于2022年下半年前后5月完全修复。\n图5：就业修复的不同假设(千人)\n\n注: 40万是2020年9月以来非农新增就业的均值水平，对应中性预测;60万是2021年前3个月的均值水平，对应乐观假设;20万是2017-2019年的均值水平，对应悲观预测。资料来源：FRED，天风证券研究所\n参照2013年的经验，美联储可能在就业恢复到75%附近时释放缩减QE信号，并最快在今年4季度开始缩减QE。释放信号的时间最快可能是在8月的Jackson Hole会议或9月的议息会议。\n图6：伴随就业稳固改善，美联储逐步收紧货币政策\n\n资料来源：bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n第三，疫苗接种率将在9月达到75%。\n疫苗接种进度直接影响劳动力市场(特别是低端、服务业)修复速度。圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard认为75%的美国人接种疫苗将是新冠危机即将结束的信号，也是美联储考虑缩减购债计划的必要条件。\n疫苗接种方面，美国疾病控制和预防中心(CDC)6月7日公布的数据显示，美国至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为50.9%，美国完全接种新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为41.3%，至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的成人人口比例为63.8%。但过去数周疫苗接种量在下降。根据CDC数据，在过去一周美国平均每日接种量为107万，较4月的峰值340万下降了三分之一。按照此速度，我们预计美国将在9月下旬达成75%全民接种，7月下旬完成75%成人接种。\n图7：美国新冠疫苗接种率及预测\n\n资料来源：ourworldindata，天风证券研究所\n疫情是最大的政治，疫苗是最大的政策。\n当疫苗接种完成、服务业加速开放、财政补贴退出、失业显著改善的信号出现时，财政和货币的流动性拐点也将随之出现。8月是美国财政部TGA账户见底、美联储释放缩减QE信号的关键时点，财政和货币的流动性拐点可能出现共振。今年2月，大类资产已经对流动性拐点做过一次预演，8月高估值股票和利率敏感型资产可能重现2月时的表现。\n图8：今年1-6月美股、美债、美元、黄金表现\n\n资料来源：WIND，天风证券研究所","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4711,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4665450,"commentId":"4665450","gmtCreate":1623319429954,"gmtModify":1663228361036,"authorId":3570426589852260,"author":{"id":3570426589852260,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorId":3570426589852260,"name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183892143,"objectIdStr":"183892143","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"hi","text":"hi","html":"hi","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":4665685,"commentId":"4665685","gmtCreate":1623320738308,"gmtModify":1663228362134,"authorId":3575031027965311,"author":{"id":3575031027965311,"idStr":"3575031027965311","authorId":3575031027965311,"name":"小可爱一枚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ac4cf0e913b423cf7075363685a627","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183892143,"objectIdStr":"183892143","type":1,"supId":4665450,"supIdStr":"4665450","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":4665453,"commentId":"4665453","gmtCreate":1623319436178,"gmtModify":1663228359927,"authorId":3570426589852260,"author":{"id":3570426589852260,"idStr":"3570426589852260","authorId":3570426589852260,"name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183892143,"objectIdStr":"183892143","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"hi","text":"hi","html":"hi","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":4665753,"commentId":"4665753","gmtCreate":1623321245969,"gmtModify":1663228362133,"authorId":3584162947321626,"author":{"id":3584162947321626,"idStr":"3584162947321626","authorId":3584162947321626,"name":"kelvinlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f87487f40781fd53b7730ef96d02ea","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":183892143,"objectIdStr":"183892143","type":1,"supId":4665453,"supIdStr":"4665453","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}