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OtisBen
2021-03-10

What the hell

UBS: It is expected that the CSI 300 Index will see 6100 points at the end of the year and the Hang Seng Index will see 36,000 points

瑞银：料沪深300指数年底见6100点、恒指见36000点

UBS: It is expected that the CSI 300 Index will see 6100 points at the end of the year and the Hang Seng Index will see 36,000 points

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Second, because it has not caused the instability of the debt market, the interest spread of investment-grade debt and risk debt has not been opened. She pointed out that the bank's investors are overseas, and markets like the United States are also changing positions, from the core assets of defensive or US stocks to some value stocks, and more to cyclical stocks. So it's in the process of adjusting positions.</p><p>Liu Mingdi also said that the bank has three major investment themes in 2021: First, mainland residents will increase their stock exposure; Second, the cyclical recovery began last year; Third, comprehensively innovate and enter the \"14th Five-Year Plan\". 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It is expected that the CSI 300 will see 6,100 points, the Hang Seng Index will see 36,000 points and MSCI will see 126 points by the end of this year. The standard deviation of valuation from the historical mean is on the high side, but after the bank looks at the global market, everyone is on the high side, and only some very niche markets, including the European market, are basically on the high side below twice the mean. If the bank looks at its P/E growth rate, the current point and the bank's estimated growth, the valuation can't be considered particularly excessive. This is the judgment of the bank's valuation in the new liquidity environment after the epidemic.</p><p>Liu Mingdi said that the rise of ten-year U.S. bond yields is the active expectation of the market. First, because the COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in developed countries around the world after the vaccine came out, and the figures are very clear. Second, because it has not caused the instability of the debt market, the interest spread of investment-grade debt and risk debt has not been opened. She pointed out that the bank's investors are overseas, and markets like the United States are also changing positions, from the core assets of defensive or US stocks to some value stocks, and more to cyclical stocks. So it's in the process of adjusting positions.</p><p>Liu Mingdi also said that the bank has three major investment themes in 2021: First, mainland residents will increase their stock exposure; Second, the cyclical recovery began last year; Third, comprehensively innovate and enter the \"14th Five-Year Plan\". Liu further explained that during the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" period, the \"two sessions\" can clearly understand comprehensive innovation, that is, innovation in all walks of life, including new energy vehicles, renewable energy, 5G, Internet of Things, high-end manufacturing, medical care and medicine, etc. She expressed her belief that innovation can raise prices, gross profit margin, net profit margin and report quality, and pointed out that innovation is an investment theme of great concern in the next few years.</p><p>Liu Mingdi also pointed out that he is optimistic about the performance of the stock index this year because of the growth of performance, and because of the demand for household assets, the most optimistic thing is that there is a growth cycle in the cycle. This is a new cycle, not a traditional cycle defined by inventory. She suggested that everyone pay more attention to cyclical stocks with growth potential. Finally, she said that the bank published the configuration of analogous warehouses in December last year. At that time, the most positions were in the cycle, consumption was standard, banks were low, and telecommunications and other industries with obvious value were high.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/450114\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/column/2/104.png","relate_stocks":{"399300":"沪深300","513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","02833":"恒指ETF","CHAD":"DeFi Development Corp","HSI":"恒生指数","UBS":"瑞银","CHAU":"2倍做多沪深300ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/450114","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2118783615","content_text":"瑞银中国策略主管刘鸣镝称，该行对三个重要股指都有正面观点，料今年底沪深300见6100点，恒生指数料见36000点，MSCI料见126点。估值对历史均值的标准差是偏高的，但是该行看了全球的市场以后大家都高，只有一些非常小众市场，包括欧洲市场在两倍的均值以下基本都偏高。如果该行看它的市盈增长率，现在的点位和该行估算的增长，估值也不能算特别过分的。这个就是该行在疫情以后新的流动性环境下面估值的判断。刘鸣镝表示，十年期美债收益上涨属市场主动预期，一是因为新冠疫情有疫苗出来以后在全球发达国家也得到了抑制，而且数字是很明确的。二是因为并没有引起债权市场的不稳定，投资级别的债权和风险的债权息差都没有拉开。她指出，该行投资人在海外，像美国这样的市场也在换仓位，从防御型或者美股的核心资产调到一些价值股，更多的是调到周期股。所以它是在调整仓位的过程中。刘鸣镝还表示，该行2021年有三大投资主题：第一是内地居民提高股票敞口；第二，周期性复甦去年已经开始了；第三，全面创新，进入“十四五”规划。刘氏进一步解释，“十四五”期间，“两会”能够很明确的了解到全面的创新，就是各行各业的创新，包括新能源汽车、可再生能源、5G、物联网、高端制造、医疗医药等。她表示，相信创新可以提高价格、提高毛利率、提高净利率的、提高报表品质，并指创新属今后几年非常关注的投资主题。刘鸣镝还指出，看好今年股指表现，是因为业绩增长，因为家庭资产的需求，最乐观的就是在周期里边有成长性的周期，这是新周期，还不是传统以库存定义的周期。她建议大家多关注有成长性的周期股。她最后称，该行去年12月曾发表了类比仓的配置，当时仓位元最多的就是在周期里，消费是标配的，银行是低配的，电信这些价值非常明显的行业是高配的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399300":1,"513600":0.6,"UBS":1,"CHAD":1,"HHImain":0.6,"CHAU":1,"02833":0.6,"MHImain":1,"HSI":1,"HSImain":1,"MCHmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2210,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}