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磐石533
2021-03-12

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CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?

过去几日，美债利率上行势头有所趋缓，10年美债利率本周初冲高后有所回落、甚至一度回至1.5%下方，特别是实际利率的升幅明显收窄。在此环境下，美股市场得到明显喘息，道琼斯和标普500指数甚至创出新高，纳

CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":328469097,"tweetId":"328469097","gmtCreate":1615551860319,"gmtModify":1704784442047,"author":{"id":3573863078476577,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorId":3573863078476577,"authorIdStr":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":177,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>1.595%</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>1.595%</body></html>","text":"1.595%","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328469097","repostId":1191557527,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191557527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1615513116,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191557527?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 09:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191557527","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"过去几日，美债利率上行势头有所趋缓，10年美债利率本周初冲高后有所回落、甚至一度回至1.5%下方，特别是实际利率的升幅明显收窄。在此环境下，美股市场得到明显喘息，道琼斯和标普500指数甚至创出新高，纳","content":"In the past few days, the upward momentum of US Treasury yields has slowed down. The 10-year US Treasury yields has fallen back after surging at the beginning of this week, and even once returned to below 1.5%. In particular, the increase in real interest rates has narrowed significantly. In this environment, the U.S. stock market has obviously breathed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes even hitting new highs. Although the Nasdaq has not yet returned to its previous high, it has also continued to rebound from the bottom.So at this point in time, has the impact of interest rates passed? What is the trend of interest rates and the market prospect in the medium and long term? We update our analysis as follows for investors' reference.1. Has the impact of interest rates passed temporarily? The short term may beOur March allocation monthly report published at the beginning of the month \"Periodic disturbance, or systemic inflection point?\" Mentioned that in the short term, if there is no unexpected chain reaction at the transaction level, taking into account factors such as expected accounting and emotional release,We believe that interest rates may ease in stages after an abnormal surge, which will give the market some respite, especially high-valued technology stocks。 At present, this trend is basically consistent with our expectations.Looking back, first of all, the source of this round of US Treasury yields, especially the rapid rise in real interest rates, was in early February. After the Democratic Party in Congress began to promote the use of budget adjustment procedures, the market's expectation of stimulus of $1.9 trillion gradually warmed up (\"A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching\"), because at that time, the market could basically determine that it was basically a matter of time before a new round of fiscal stimulus passed. Now, Biden has officially signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into effect.But for the market, this is already the fulfillment of expectations.Secondly, there are also obvious transaction-level factors in this rise in interest rates, especially the phased rapid riseFor example, after breaking through the key barrier, stop loss or programmed trading is triggered, which leads to the amplification of volatility, which in turn leads to the bond being significantly oversold for a time. However, this situation has also eased significantly after the market returned to relative calm.Therefore, taking these two considerations together, we expect that interest rates may consolidate and slow down at this position in the short term until the next catalyst arrives.In addition, the increase in the scale of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve's short-term open market operations and the significant increase in Treasury Bond auction bidding rates may also improve market sentiment at the micro level.However, the current interest rate level and volatility are still at a relatively high level, so the unexpected surge due to some events and key economic data is still worthy of attention. If it happens, it will inevitably cause another disturbance to the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5306eecb472ec3844b5f0260f6c8d753\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7044a927f4bc7712147715fcace71825\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32bfdd23f975dc8787c05412f1a944\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d09a7c1874a714ac8ae2fff2b15988\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f04c2aa13d5bc545c507b363a7b7b1\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. What are the medium and long-term interest rate prospects? There is still room for upside and real interest rates are the main ones, waiting for a catalystGenerally speaking, US Treasury yields will still have room for upside under the background that the booming supply and demand in the United States in the first half of this year are expected to drive upside risks to the economy.On the supply side, the average vaccination rate of 2 million doses per day is expected to enable the United States to achieve herd immunity before summer, thereby promoting the resumption of production and the increase in service consumption. The recent sharp jump in the number of TSA airport security checks may be a direct manifestation. On the demand side, $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been released, and a direct subsidy of $1,400 per person and a weekly unemployment supplement of $300 will begin to be paid until early September (but considering the recovery of employment, this payment will be concentrated in the first half of the year). In fact, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus passed at the end of last year has caused the household savings rate to jump sharply from 13.4% in December to 20.5% in January, with immediate results.So that absolute level, after the interest rate level exceeded the first target point of 1.5% given in our outlook \"2021 Overseas Market Outlook: The Path of the Epidemic, Replenishment of Stocks\" in November last year,Combined with the ACM term premium model provided by the New York Fed, we expect the next target point to be around 1.8%. In terms of drivers, we expect to remain dominated by real interest rates, mainly considering that the real growth expectation will continue to rise, and at the same time, the inflation expectation has reacted in advance and approached the historical edge (\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\").However, in terms of rhythm, unless there are some unexpected trading-level factors, we expect that the next wave of rising interest rates may also have to wait for new catalysts.For example, Biden's infrastructure plan or if the budget arrangement for the new fiscal year includes a large-scale infrastructure investment budget (expected from April to May), as well as milestone progress in vaccination to achieve herd immunity, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953a74940abdb73cad7a54eaecd25900\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4913292f8d8dd12a13d006cbb6163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/681387aaeb78e4f926fb540feabfba00\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490695078472cbf873ac95c44e1c2d1b\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6461ed7d515436fa3d8ed148a1c254c9\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0feeeea5fcce1eb6ec0aa26406516bc3\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Potential impact on the market and asset prices? Short-term respite, medium and long-term determines fundamentalsUndoubtedly, the easing of the upward trend of short-term interest rates will have a significant respite effect on the market, which is also the main reason for the recent market rebound.However, in the long run, although the rise in short-term interest rates will inevitably lead to an increase in financing costs, especially the rapid rise will increase volatility, fundamentals are still the key to determining the medium and long-term trend of the market. Therefore,We do not believe that simply higher interest rates or a steep bond curve will reverse the overall market trend in the context of continued improvement in overall fundamentals or even upside risks.In the fourth quarter, U.S. stock profits have turned positive year-on-year, and the recovery speed has exceeded expectations.Despite the strong supply and demand of the U.S. economy in the first half of the year, we remain confident in the recovery of U.S. earnings in the first two quarters(\"Can U.S. stock earnings withstand upward disturbances in interest rates?\"). As we analyzed the experience of the U.S. stock market in early 2018 after the fluctuation caused by the sudden rise in bond interest rates, the market was able to reach a new high after the fluctuation thanks to the profit support after the tax reform, until the interest rate reached a new high in early October and the fundamentals began to gradually decline. You know, 2018 is not as good as the current one in many aspects (for example, it was in the rate hike cycle and the post-economic recovery cycle at that time, the risk premium considering the interest rate level was lower than the current one, and the financing leverage was higher than the current one, etc.) (\"Disturbance of Rising Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\").It should be noted that the upward trend of real interest rates is not conducive to the performance of gold and high valuations, especially \"inflated\" valuations, which is also the reason why the recent performance of the Dow Jones index in the US stock market is significantly better than that of value stocks such as the Nasdaq and banks.However, once the interest rate surge eases in stages, it is difficult to maintain the relative performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks(\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\")。Therefore, we maintain our view in the March monthly asset allocation report: in the short term, we can appropriately reduce positions and hedge risks from the perspective of hedging, but maintain the ranking of stocks > bulk > gold > bonds.Stocks are still the relative preferred choice, and commodities are partially profited by expected excessive suggestions after the surge, while bonds and gold are still unattractive. Vaccinations in Europe remain slow and new fiscal stimulus in the United States may still provide support for the US Dollar Index. Inside the stock,The relative earnings and valuations of highly valued growth stocks will be under pressure against the backdrop of higher interest rates, and vice versa.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa4eb9a200935e26692ee45d1f137cb\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe09668a6799caeeb18e3fa87048bfd8\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af76a2ab418b58372d8b5128bc32e71\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/455090cdcec012da1fae3ea332fca17f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Future policy expectations? OT > YCCAsset price fluctuations caused by the recent rapid rise in interest rates have also significantly increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"intervention\". 1.85 trillion euros, and a total of 870 billion euros have been purchased so far).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad483ff57d2e5ace5ffd955f81fc109\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We speculate that the Fed is still \"calm\" about the recent upward performance of long-term US Treasury yields, which may be because: On the one hand, in the view of the Federal Reserve, the recent rise in interest rates is a positive expectation driven by positive growth. At the same time, Powell does not believe that the short-term rise in inflation is sustainable in the context of underemployment and still large output gaps; On the other hand, although long-term interest rates have risen, the liquidity of the financial system has remained loose. The indicators we track to measure a series of financial market liquidity environment, such as FRA-OIS, commercial paper, credit spreads, etc., have also not tightened significantly.So what are the options if next, for example at the upcoming March FOMC meeting, if the Fed does something? We believe that in the current environment,Compared with yield curve control (YCC), operation twist may be a relatively more convenient and effective way, while YCC may have a greater distortion in asset pricing and lead to a reduction in the actual purchase scale.►Twisting operation, is the relatively most convenient and effective way under the current circumstances, and the scale of QE purchases will remain unchanged. Since the short-term interest rate anchored to the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains basically unchanged, even if the short-term interest rate is sold in the short term, the possible response will be relatively limited. In 2011, the distortion operation brought about the obvious effect of the downward trend of long-term interest rates;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/780526ef7a48911f8da5407d76ba106c\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">►Yield curve controlOn the contrary, it may cause the actual Taper and greater distortion of asset pricing. Referring to the previous experience of the Bank of Japan in launching YCC (of course, the Bank of Japan was trying to avoid excessive negative interest rates instead of lowering interest rates), anchoring a certain price point rather than a quantitative target can have a significant effect, that is, interest rates are completely anchored. However, the actual required purchase scale continues to decline, which is equal to the effect of Taper. However, this operation of completely anchoring a certain bond yield point may \"distort\" market pricing, which may bring greater trouble from a medium-to long-term launch perspective;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcecf0510dcdddaa819757d079de53\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">►Extend the expiration of the exemption requirement for the capital adequacy ratio of banking institutions to invest in Treasury Bond.During the epidemic, in order to alleviate the liquidity pressure in the Treasury Bond market, the Federal Reserve allowed large financial institutions not to include Treasury Bond holdings in the calculation of capital adequacy ratios, but this exemption ended at the end of March. As of the third quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Institutions hold US $1.3 trillion in Treasury Bond, accounting for 5.5% of the total stock, an increase of US $285 billion compared with before the epidemic. If the exemption is lifted, it may be more reflected in reducing demand for Treasury Bond in the context of Bank of America's current capital adequacy ratio at a record high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361aac133e6d7beb0135d1ed2843a8e5\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nKevin策略研究 \n2021-03-12 09:38\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn the past few days, the upward momentum of US Treasury yields has slowed down. The 10-year US Treasury yields has fallen back after surging at the beginning of this week, and even once returned to below 1.5%. In particular, the increase in real interest rates has narrowed significantly. In this environment, the U.S. stock market has obviously breathed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes even hitting new highs. Although the Nasdaq has not yet returned to its previous high, it has also continued to rebound from the bottom.So at this point in time, has the impact of interest rates passed? What is the trend of interest rates and the market prospect in the medium and long term? We update our analysis as follows for investors' reference.1. Has the impact of interest rates passed temporarily? The short term may beOur March allocation monthly report published at the beginning of the month \"Periodic disturbance, or systemic inflection point?\" Mentioned that in the short term, if there is no unexpected chain reaction at the transaction level, taking into account factors such as expected accounting and emotional release,We believe that interest rates may ease in stages after an abnormal surge, which will give the market some respite, especially high-valued technology stocks。 At present, this trend is basically consistent with our expectations.Looking back, first of all, the source of this round of US Treasury yields, especially the rapid rise in real interest rates, was in early February. After the Democratic Party in Congress began to promote the use of budget adjustment procedures, the market's expectation of stimulus of $1.9 trillion gradually warmed up (\"A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching\"), because at that time, the market could basically determine that it was basically a matter of time before a new round of fiscal stimulus passed. Now, Biden has officially signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into effect.But for the market, this is already the fulfillment of expectations.Secondly, there are also obvious transaction-level factors in this rise in interest rates, especially the phased rapid riseFor example, after breaking through the key barrier, stop loss or programmed trading is triggered, which leads to the amplification of volatility, which in turn leads to the bond being significantly oversold for a time. However, this situation has also eased significantly after the market returned to relative calm.Therefore, taking these two considerations together, we expect that interest rates may consolidate and slow down at this position in the short term until the next catalyst arrives.In addition, the increase in the scale of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve's short-term open market operations and the significant increase in Treasury Bond auction bidding rates may also improve market sentiment at the micro level.However, the current interest rate level and volatility are still at a relatively high level, so the unexpected surge due to some events and key economic data is still worthy of attention. If it happens, it will inevitably cause another disturbance to the market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5306eecb472ec3844b5f0260f6c8d753\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7044a927f4bc7712147715fcace71825\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32bfdd23f975dc8787c05412f1a944\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d09a7c1874a714ac8ae2fff2b15988\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f04c2aa13d5bc545c507b363a7b7b1\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. What are the medium and long-term interest rate prospects? There is still room for upside and real interest rates are the main ones, waiting for a catalystGenerally speaking, US Treasury yields will still have room for upside under the background that the booming supply and demand in the United States in the first half of this year are expected to drive upside risks to the economy.On the supply side, the average vaccination rate of 2 million doses per day is expected to enable the United States to achieve herd immunity before summer, thereby promoting the resumption of production and the increase in service consumption. The recent sharp jump in the number of TSA airport security checks may be a direct manifestation. On the demand side, $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been released, and a direct subsidy of $1,400 per person and a weekly unemployment supplement of $300 will begin to be paid until early September (but considering the recovery of employment, this payment will be concentrated in the first half of the year). In fact, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus passed at the end of last year has caused the household savings rate to jump sharply from 13.4% in December to 20.5% in January, with immediate results.So that absolute level, after the interest rate level exceeded the first target point of 1.5% given in our outlook \"2021 Overseas Market Outlook: The Path of the Epidemic, Replenishment of Stocks\" in November last year,Combined with the ACM term premium model provided by the New York Fed, we expect the next target point to be around 1.8%. In terms of drivers, we expect to remain dominated by real interest rates, mainly considering that the real growth expectation will continue to rise, and at the same time, the inflation expectation has reacted in advance and approached the historical edge (\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\").However, in terms of rhythm, unless there are some unexpected trading-level factors, we expect that the next wave of rising interest rates may also have to wait for new catalysts.For example, Biden's infrastructure plan or if the budget arrangement for the new fiscal year includes a large-scale infrastructure investment budget (expected from April to May), as well as milestone progress in vaccination to achieve herd immunity, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953a74940abdb73cad7a54eaecd25900\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4913292f8d8dd12a13d006cbb6163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/681387aaeb78e4f926fb540feabfba00\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490695078472cbf873ac95c44e1c2d1b\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6461ed7d515436fa3d8ed148a1c254c9\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0feeeea5fcce1eb6ec0aa26406516bc3\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Potential impact on the market and asset prices? Short-term respite, medium and long-term determines fundamentalsUndoubtedly, the easing of the upward trend of short-term interest rates will have a significant respite effect on the market, which is also the main reason for the recent market rebound.However, in the long run, although the rise in short-term interest rates will inevitably lead to an increase in financing costs, especially the rapid rise will increase volatility, fundamentals are still the key to determining the medium and long-term trend of the market. Therefore,We do not believe that simply higher interest rates or a steep bond curve will reverse the overall market trend in the context of continued improvement in overall fundamentals or even upside risks.In the fourth quarter, U.S. stock profits have turned positive year-on-year, and the recovery speed has exceeded expectations.Despite the strong supply and demand of the U.S. economy in the first half of the year, we remain confident in the recovery of U.S. earnings in the first two quarters(\"Can U.S. stock earnings withstand upward disturbances in interest rates?\"). As we analyzed the experience of the U.S. stock market in early 2018 after the fluctuation caused by the sudden rise in bond interest rates, the market was able to reach a new high after the fluctuation thanks to the profit support after the tax reform, until the interest rate reached a new high in early October and the fundamentals began to gradually decline. You know, 2018 is not as good as the current one in many aspects (for example, it was in the rate hike cycle and the post-economic recovery cycle at that time, the risk premium considering the interest rate level was lower than the current one, and the financing leverage was higher than the current one, etc.) (\"Disturbance of Rising Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\").It should be noted that the upward trend of real interest rates is not conducive to the performance of gold and high valuations, especially \"inflated\" valuations, which is also the reason why the recent performance of the Dow Jones index in the US stock market is significantly better than that of value stocks such as the Nasdaq and banks.However, once the interest rate surge eases in stages, it is difficult to maintain the relative performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks(\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\")。Therefore, we maintain our view in the March monthly asset allocation report: in the short term, we can appropriately reduce positions and hedge risks from the perspective of hedging, but maintain the ranking of stocks > bulk > gold > bonds.Stocks are still the relative preferred choice, and commodities are partially profited by expected excessive suggestions after the surge, while bonds and gold are still unattractive. Vaccinations in Europe remain slow and new fiscal stimulus in the United States may still provide support for the US Dollar Index. Inside the stock,The relative earnings and valuations of highly valued growth stocks will be under pressure against the backdrop of higher interest rates, and vice versa.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa4eb9a200935e26692ee45d1f137cb\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe09668a6799caeeb18e3fa87048bfd8\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af76a2ab418b58372d8b5128bc32e71\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/455090cdcec012da1fae3ea332fca17f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Future policy expectations? OT > YCCAsset price fluctuations caused by the recent rapid rise in interest rates have also significantly increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"intervention\". 1.85 trillion euros, and a total of 870 billion euros have been purchased so far).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad483ff57d2e5ace5ffd955f81fc109\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We speculate that the Fed is still \"calm\" about the recent upward performance of long-term US Treasury yields, which may be because: On the one hand, in the view of the Federal Reserve, the recent rise in interest rates is a positive expectation driven by positive growth. At the same time, Powell does not believe that the short-term rise in inflation is sustainable in the context of underemployment and still large output gaps; On the other hand, although long-term interest rates have risen, the liquidity of the financial system has remained loose. The indicators we track to measure a series of financial market liquidity environment, such as FRA-OIS, commercial paper, credit spreads, etc., have also not tightened significantly.So what are the options if next, for example at the upcoming March FOMC meeting, if the Fed does something? We believe that in the current environment,Compared with yield curve control (YCC), operation twist may be a relatively more convenient and effective way, while YCC may have a greater distortion in asset pricing and lead to a reduction in the actual purchase scale.►Twisting operation, is the relatively most convenient and effective way under the current circumstances, and the scale of QE purchases will remain unchanged. Since the short-term interest rate anchored to the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains basically unchanged, even if the short-term interest rate is sold in the short term, the possible response will be relatively limited. In 2011, the distortion operation brought about the obvious effect of the downward trend of long-term interest rates;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/780526ef7a48911f8da5407d76ba106c\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">►Yield curve controlOn the contrary, it may cause the actual Taper and greater distortion of asset pricing. Referring to the previous experience of the Bank of Japan in launching YCC (of course, the Bank of Japan was trying to avoid excessive negative interest rates instead of lowering interest rates), anchoring a certain price point rather than a quantitative target can have a significant effect, that is, interest rates are completely anchored. However, the actual required purchase scale continues to decline, which is equal to the effect of Taper. However, this operation of completely anchoring a certain bond yield point may \"distort\" market pricing, which may bring greater trouble from a medium-to long-term launch perspective;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcecf0510dcdddaa819757d079de53\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">►Extend the expiration of the exemption requirement for the capital adequacy ratio of banking institutions to invest in Treasury Bond.During the epidemic, in order to alleviate the liquidity pressure in the Treasury Bond market, the Federal Reserve allowed large financial institutions not to include Treasury Bond holdings in the calculation of capital adequacy ratios, but this exemption ended at the end of March. As of the third quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Institutions hold US $1.3 trillion in Treasury Bond, accounting for 5.5% of the total stock, an increase of US $285 billion compared with before the epidemic. If the exemption is lifted, it may be more reflected in reducing demand for Treasury Bond in the context of Bank of America's current capital adequacy ratio at a record high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361aac133e6d7beb0135d1ed2843a8e5\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191557527","content_text":"过去几日，美债利率上行势头有所趋缓，10年美债利率本周初冲高后有所回落、甚至一度回至1.5%下方，特别是实际利率的升幅明显收窄。在此环境下，美股市场得到明显喘息，道琼斯和标普500指数甚至创出新高，纳斯达克虽然尚未回到前期高点，但也从底部持续反弹。\n那么站在这个时间点，利率的冲击是否已经过去？中长期看利率的走势、以及市场前景如何？我们更新分析如下，供投资者参考。\n一、利率的冲击是否暂时已经过去？短期可能是\n我们在月初发表的3月配置月报《阶段性扰动，还是系统性拐点？》中提到，短期内，如果不出现交易层面意外诱发连锁反应的话，考虑到预期的计入和情绪释放等因素，我们认为利率可能在异常上冲后阶段性缓和，进而使得市场也得到一定喘息，尤其是高估值的科技股。目前看，这一走势与我们预期的情况基本一致。\n回过头来看，首先，此轮美债利率特别是实际利率快速上行的源头正是2月初，国会民主党开始推动使用预算调节程序后，市场对于1.9万亿美元刺激通过预期的逐渐升温（《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近》），因为在当时市场就可以基本确定，新一轮财政刺激通过基本是时间的问题。而到了现在，1.9万亿美元刺激法案拜登已经正式签署使之生效，但对于市场而言，这已经是预期兑现了。\n其次，此次利率上行、特别是阶段性的快速上冲也存在明显的交易层面因素，如突破关键关口后，触发止损或者程序化交易进而引发波动的放大，进而导致债券一度明显超卖。但这一情形在市场恢复相对平静后，也得到明显缓和。因此，正是综合这两点考虑，我们预计利率短期可能在这一位置盘整趋缓，直到下一个催化剂到来。\n此外，美联储短期公开市场操作购债规模增加、以及国债拍卖竞拍率明显提升可能也在微观层面改善了市场情绪。\n不过，当前利率水平和波动率依然处于相对高位，因此因为一些事件和关键经济数据出发的意外上冲依然值得关注，如果出现的话，仍难免对市场再度造成扰动。\n\n二、中长期的利率前景？仍有上行空间且以实际利率为主、等待以一个催化剂\n大方向上，在预计今年上半年美国供需两旺推动经济存在上行风险的背景下，美债利率仍将有上行空间。\n供给端，平均每天200万剂的疫苗接种速度有望使得美国在夏天前实现群体免疫，进而推动生产复工和服务性消费的提升，近期TSA机场安检人数大幅跃升可能就是一个直接体现。需求端，1.9万亿美元的财政刺激已经出炉，每人1400美元的直接补贴、以及每周300美元的失业补充将开始发放直到9月初（但考虑到就业的修复，这一发放将集中在上半年）。实际上，去年底通过的9000亿美元财政刺激已经使得居民储蓄率从12月的13.4%大幅跃升至1月的20.5%，效果立竿见影。\n因此绝对水平上，在利率水平突破我们在去年11月度展望《2021年海外市场展望：疫情径曲、补库通幽》给出的1.5%的第一目标点位后，我们结合纽约联储提供的ACM期限溢价模型预计下一个目标点位在1.8%左右。从驱动因素上，我们预计仍将以实际利率为主，主要是考虑到真实的增长预期将不断走高、同时通胀预期已经提前反应并逼近历史上沿（《实际利率走高的含义与影响》）。\n不过节奏上，除非出现一些意料之外的交易层面因素，我们预期利率的下一波上行可能也要等待新的催化剂，例如拜登基建方案或者如果新一财年预算安排中包含大规模基建投资预算（预计4~5月），以及疫苗接种实现群体免疫的里程碑式进展等等。\n\n三、对市场和资产价格的潜在影响？短期有喘息、中长期决定于基本面\n毋庸置疑的是，短期利率上行的缓和对于市场将起到明显的喘息效果，这也是近期市场得以反弹的主要原因。\n但长期来看，虽然短期利率上行难免造成融资成本抬升、特别是快速上行会加大波动，但基本面仍是决定市场中长期走势的关键，因此，我们不认为在整体基本面继续向好甚至存在上行风险的背景下，单纯的利率走高或债券曲线熊陡会扭转整体市场趋势。\n四季度，美股盈利已经同比转正，而且修复速度超出预期，在上半年美国经济供需两旺的局面下，我们对于前两个季度美国盈利的修复依然保有信心（《美股盈利能否抵御利率上行扰动?》）。正如我们分析的2018年初美股市场因为债券利率骤升导致波动后的经验所示，市场在波动之后得益于税改后的盈利支撑还能够再创新高，直到10月初利率再创新高且基本面也开始逐步下行。要知道，2018年在多个方面还不如当前（例如当时处于加息周期和经济修复后周期、考虑到利率水平的风险溢价比当前更低、融资杠杆比现在还高等等）（《利率上行的扰动：来自2018年的经验》）。\n需要注意的是，实际利率的上行不利于黄金和高估值特别是“虚高”估值的表现，这也是近期美股道琼斯指数表现明显好于纳指、银行等价值股表现明显好于成长性板块的原因。不过一旦在利率上冲阶段性缓和时，价值股相比成长股的相对表现也很难一直维系（《实际利率走高的含义与影响》）。\n因此，我们维持在3月资产配置月报中的观点：短期从避险角度可以适当降低仓位并对冲风险，但维持股>大宗>黄金>债券排序，股票仍是相对首选，大宗商品大涨后计入预期过多建议部分获利，而债券和黄金仍不具备吸引力。欧洲疫苗接种依然缓慢以及美国新增财政刺激可能仍为美元指数提供支撑。股票内部，高估值成长股的相对收益和估值在利率走高背景下会有压力，反之亦然。\n\n四、未来的政策期待？OT>YCC\n近期利率快速上行导致的资产价格波动也使得市场对于美联储出手“干预”的期待明显升温，毕竟欧央行都已经在未来一个季度决定加大其PEPP（大流行病资产购买计划的购买速度，总规模1.85万亿欧元，目前已经累计购买8700亿欧元）。\n\n我们猜测，美联储目前依然对近期长端美债利率上行表现“淡定”可能是因为：一方面，在美联储看来近期利率上行是一个对增长向好驱动的良性预期推动、同时Powell不认为在未达到充分就业和产出缺口也依然很大的背景下通胀短期走高具有持续性；另一方面，虽然长端利率走高，但金融体系流动性都维持宽松状态，我们追踪的衡量一系列金融市场流动性环境的指标，如FRA-OIS、商业票据、信用利差等等，也都没有明显收紧。\n那么，如果接下来，例如在即将召开的3月FOMC会议上，如果美联储采取措施的话，有哪些选项呢？我们认为在当前环境下，相比收益率曲线控制（yield curve control，YCC），扭曲操作（operation twist）可能是相对更为便捷且有效的方式，而YCC对资产定价的扭曲可能更大且会导致实际购买规模的缩减。\n►扭曲操作，在目前情况下是相对最为便捷且有效的一种方式，而且QE购买规模将维持不变。由于较为短端利率锚定美联储基准利率保持基本不变，因此即便短期卖出短端，可能造成的响应相对有限。2011年采取扭曲操作即带来的长端利率下行的明显效果；\n\n►收益率曲线控制，反而可能造成实际的Taper和对资产定价更大的扭曲。参照日本央行此前推出YCC的经验（当然日本央行当时是为了避免过深的负利率而非压低利率），锚定某个价格点位而非数量目标可以起到明显的效果，即利率被完全锚定但实际所需的购买规模不断下降，等于Taper的效果。不过，这种完全锚定某个债券收益率点位的操作可能会“扭曲”市场定价，从中长期的推出角度可能会带来更大的麻烦；\n\n►延长对银行机构投资国债资本充足率豁免要求的到期。疫情期间，美联储为缓解国债市场流动性压力，允许大型金融机构可以不将持有国债纳入资本充足率计算中，但这一豁免3月底截止。截止三季度，美国银行机构持有国债1.3万亿美元，占到总存量规模的5.5%，相比疫情前新增2850亿美元。如果豁免取消的话，在美国银行目前资本充足率处于历史新高的背景下，可能更多体现为降低对国债的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}