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Yamcake18
2021-01-11

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Will U.S. stocks rise whatever you invest? The bubble bursting bell is ringing

就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不

Will U.S. stocks rise whatever you invest? The bubble bursting bell is ringing

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":332858885,"tweetId":"332858885","gmtCreate":1610374758547,"gmtModify":1704983274222,"author":{"id":3560598381922417,"idStr":"3560598381922417","authorId":3560598381922417,"authorIdStr":"3560598381922417","name":"Yamcake18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7f68c89404c7c2abce9286c953c18d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":28,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>？</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>？</body></html>","text":"？","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332858885","repostId":1120677382,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120677382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610374004,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120677382?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-11 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will U.S. stocks rise whatever you invest? The bubble bursting bell is ringing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120677382","media":"金十数据","summary":"就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。\n上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不","content":"Just as placing heavy bets in gambling can often pay off, in the stock market, the stocks with the highest returns tend to be the riskiest.Last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Musk mentioned on social media that due to WhatsApp's change in user privacy terms, it was suggested to use Signal messaging software instead. However, the stock price of Signal Advance, another \"famous\" over-the-counter trading company, soared 12 times on January 11.With the Nasdaq 100 Index doubling in two years, last Wednesday (January 6), the bullish trading volume in the United States hit a new high, and the daily trading volume ranked fourth in history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c9cb4ba71ee2adafaa5f3ffa20994\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\">The market always seems to be drifting with the tide. With the Fed's loose monetary policy, the promotion of vaccines, and market sentiment turning to optimism, everyone from retail investors to institutional investors is scrambling to squeeze into the U.S. stock market, trying to profit from the 10-year \"melting\" profit, but the winners can only be a few.This \"melting and rising\" frenzy may last for weeks or even months. As for when it will subside, it is difficult to predict, but warnings of stock market bubbles have been everywhere. Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group's chief investment officer, wrote in a note to clients on January 8:\"This is an all-out investment frenzy, and just because a bull market is in its early stages doesn't mean it's'safer 'to buy now.\" But Bloomberg said that for now, chasing the market can indeed be profitable.The Nasdaq 100 index reached nearly 40 times P/E on the first day of trading in the new year, its biggest gain in two months. On the other hand, hedging stocks has always been costly. The spree of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) going public also continues, with 12 more companies filing for IPOs last Friday.Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak +, said he thinks last week's riots in Washington will at least slow the frenzy:\"There are too many bubbles in the market right now. In just two months, the U.S. stock market has risen by 16% and 70% since March. The riots in Congress should have suppressed the market. A 10%-15% correction is healthy.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6721cb86c85333e9d17d74f2891859e3\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\">The real bubble is actually the options market.Expiring on January 15 with an exercise price of $1,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The call option was the most frequently traded option last Friday, with trading volume quintupling to close at $9.15, compared to last week's opening of just 53 cents.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Retail investors seem to be the main force driving this trend, said.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Noting that, according to New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) margin account data, there was a strong increase in the number of margin accounts in December compared to previous months.After a seasonal decline in the last week of December, the rush for retail call options is back strongly, as are retail traders trading over the counter, according to JPMorgan.On Friday, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note:\"Retail investors are injecting liquidity into the market again, which is similar to the situation in the second quarter of last year.\" This situation is likely to continue in the coming weeks, given the market expectation that the U.S. government will further increase fiscal stimulus. Some exchanges have smelled business opportunities. Chicago Futures Exchange has been customizing investment plans for retail investors. In June last year, it launched mini S&P index options tailored for retail investors to increase liquidity.Arianne Criqui, head of derivatives and global client service at Shiba Futures Exchange, said in an interview in November that the company \"believes that investor demand will continue, so it strives to launch some products that can meet the changes in investor demand.\"Jason Goepfert of Sundial Capital Research has also been emphasizing since late December that retail investors have a lot of influence in the options market. He cited data on options trading volume and option price,Among them, retail participants accounted for 54% and institutional participants accounted for 28%.Goepfert wrote in a note last Tuesday:\"Indicators that analyze real funds and leveraged instruments are the most reliable sentiment indicators. After observing some of the most leveraged investment instruments available to investors, we find that the current situation is not optimistic, and there is plenty of evidence that there is extreme speculation.\" Given historically low yields on many assets, such as cash and bonds, investors are ready to buy riskier assets in a big way. They began to focus on stocks and options, hoping to get benefits that other assets could not give.Chris Murphy, derivatives strategist at Susquehanna, pointed out in November,The options portfolio takes into account high volatility and high valuation, and \"may be a good way to improve yields.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3ec86bac1933f2610ec7bd6b439a6a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"585\">In a research report last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Of strategists use more general stock market indicators to prove signs of a bear market,It was found that 63% of the indicators were consistent, including fund outflows,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The VIX index (CBOE Volatility Index) rose and consumer confidence rose.However, the bubble has expanded to the brink of bursting, which is not the same as the destruction of the stock market. Although the VIX index hit a three-month high, it is still below the peak level of 79% in September 2018.Bank of America strategists such as Savita Subramanian wrote:\"Bear market signals (usually signals triggered before the S&P 500 peaks) are becoming increasingly obvious, and we predict that the returns of the S&P 500 will be low in 2021.\"","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will U.S. stocks rise whatever you invest? 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The bubble bursting bell is ringing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n金十数据2021-01-11 22:06\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJust as placing heavy bets in gambling can often pay off, in the stock market, the stocks with the highest returns tend to be the riskiest.Last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Musk mentioned on social media that due to WhatsApp's change in user privacy terms, it was suggested to use Signal messaging software instead. However, the stock price of Signal Advance, another \"famous\" over-the-counter trading company, soared 12 times on January 11.With the Nasdaq 100 Index doubling in two years, last Wednesday (January 6), the bullish trading volume in the United States hit a new high, and the daily trading volume ranked fourth in history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c9cb4ba71ee2adafaa5f3ffa20994\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\">The market always seems to be drifting with the tide. With the Fed's loose monetary policy, the promotion of vaccines, and market sentiment turning to optimism, everyone from retail investors to institutional investors is scrambling to squeeze into the U.S. stock market, trying to profit from the 10-year \"melting\" profit, but the winners can only be a few.This \"melting and rising\" frenzy may last for weeks or even months. As for when it will subside, it is difficult to predict, but warnings of stock market bubbles have been everywhere. Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group's chief investment officer, wrote in a note to clients on January 8:\"This is an all-out investment frenzy, and just because a bull market is in its early stages doesn't mean it's'safer 'to buy now.\" But Bloomberg said that for now, chasing the market can indeed be profitable.The Nasdaq 100 index reached nearly 40 times P/E on the first day of trading in the new year, its biggest gain in two months. On the other hand, hedging stocks has always been costly. The spree of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) going public also continues, with 12 more companies filing for IPOs last Friday.Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak +, said he thinks last week's riots in Washington will at least slow the frenzy:\"There are too many bubbles in the market right now. In just two months, the U.S. stock market has risen by 16% and 70% since March. The riots in Congress should have suppressed the market. A 10%-15% correction is healthy.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6721cb86c85333e9d17d74f2891859e3\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\">The real bubble is actually the options market.Expiring on January 15 with an exercise price of $1,000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The call option was the most frequently traded option last Friday, with trading volume quintupling to close at $9.15, compared to last week's opening of just 53 cents.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Retail investors seem to be the main force driving this trend, said.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Noting that, according to New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) margin account data, there was a strong increase in the number of margin accounts in December compared to previous months.After a seasonal decline in the last week of December, the rush for retail call options is back strongly, as are retail traders trading over the counter, according to JPMorgan.On Friday, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note:\"Retail investors are injecting liquidity into the market again, which is similar to the situation in the second quarter of last year.\" This situation is likely to continue in the coming weeks, given the market expectation that the U.S. government will further increase fiscal stimulus. Some exchanges have smelled business opportunities. Chicago Futures Exchange has been customizing investment plans for retail investors. In June last year, it launched mini S&P index options tailored for retail investors to increase liquidity.Arianne Criqui, head of derivatives and global client service at Shiba Futures Exchange, said in an interview in November that the company \"believes that investor demand will continue, so it strives to launch some products that can meet the changes in investor demand.\"Jason Goepfert of Sundial Capital Research has also been emphasizing since late December that retail investors have a lot of influence in the options market. He cited data on options trading volume and option price,Among them, retail participants accounted for 54% and institutional participants accounted for 28%.Goepfert wrote in a note last Tuesday:\"Indicators that analyze real funds and leveraged instruments are the most reliable sentiment indicators. After observing some of the most leveraged investment instruments available to investors, we find that the current situation is not optimistic, and there is plenty of evidence that there is extreme speculation.\" Given historically low yields on many assets, such as cash and bonds, investors are ready to buy riskier assets in a big way. They began to focus on stocks and options, hoping to get benefits that other assets could not give.Chris Murphy, derivatives strategist at Susquehanna, pointed out in November,The options portfolio takes into account high volatility and high valuation, and \"may be a good way to improve yields.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3ec86bac1933f2610ec7bd6b439a6a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"585\">In a research report last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Of strategists use more general stock market indicators to prove signs of a bear market,It was found that 63% of the indicators were consistent, including fund outflows,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The VIX index (CBOE Volatility Index) rose and consumer confidence rose.However, the bubble has expanded to the brink of bursting, which is not the same as the destruction of the stock market. Although the VIX index hit a three-month high, it is still below the peak level of 79% in September 2018.Bank of America strategists such as Savita Subramanian wrote:\"Bear market signals (usually signals triggered before the S&P 500 peaks) are becoming increasingly obvious, and we predict that the returns of the S&P 500 will be low in 2021.\"\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/69208\">金十数据</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/69208","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120677382","content_text":"就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。\n上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不知另外一家“撞名”的场外交易公司Signal Advance的股价在1月11日飙升了12倍。\n随着纳斯达克100指数在两年内翻了一番，上周三（1月6日）美国看涨交易量创新高，日交易量在历史上排第四。\n\n市场似乎总是在随波逐流，在美联储宽松的货币政策、疫苗的推广以及市场情绪转向乐观的情况下，从散户到机构投资者，所有人都在争相挤入美股市场，试图从这已持续10个月的“融涨”中获利，但赢家只能是少数。\n这种“融涨”狂潮可能会持续数周甚至数月，至于它何时才会消退，难以进行预测，但股市泡沫警告已经四起。Leuthold Group的首席投资官Doug Ramsey在1月8日写给客户的一份报告中写道：\n\n “这是一种全面的投资狂潮，牛市行情处于初期并不意味着现在买入更‘安全’。”\n\n但彭博社称，就目前来看，追逐行情的确是可以获利的。纳斯达克100指数在新年交易首日市盈率就达到近40倍，创下两个月来的最大涨幅。另一方面，对冲股票的成本一直很高。特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的上市热潮也在继续，上周五又有12家公司提交了IPO申请。\nMiller Tabak+的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说，他认为上周华盛顿的骚乱至少会减缓这种狂热：\n\n “目前市场充斥着太多的泡沫。在短短两个月的时间里，美股市场上涨了16%，自3月份以来上涨了70%，国会的骚乱事件本应打压市场。10%-15%的回调才是健康的。”\n\n\n要说真正的泡沫，其实是期权市场。将于1月15日到期、行权价为1000美元的特斯拉看涨期权是上周五交易最频繁的期权，交易量翻了五倍，收于9.15美元，而上周的开盘价仅为53美分。\n摩根大通称，散户似乎是推动这一趋势的主力军。摩根大通指出，根据纽约证券交易所（NYSE）保证金账户数据，12月份的保证金账户数量较前几个月有强劲增长。摩根大通表示，在去年12月的最后一周出现季节性下跌后，散户买入看涨期权的热潮又强势回归，场外交易的散户也是如此。\n周五，以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的策略师在一份报告中写道：\n\n “散户再次为市场注入流动性，这与去年第二季度的情况类似。”\n\n鉴于市场预期美国政府会进一步加大财政刺激力度，这种情况可能会在未来几周持续下去。一些交易所已经嗅到了商机。芝期所一直在为散户定制投资方案，去年6月为散户量身推出了迷你标普指数期权，来增加流动性。\n芝期所衍生品和全球客户服务主管Arianne Criqui在去年11月接受采访时表示，该公司 “相信投资者需求会持续下去，因此努力推出一些能满足投资者需求变化的产品。”\nSundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert也自12月底以来一直在强调，散户在期权市场上的影响力很大。他引用了期权交易量和期权价格的数据，其中散户参与者占54%，机构参与者占28%。Goepfert在上周二的一份报告中写道：\n\n “分析真实资金和杠杆工具的指标是最可靠的情绪指标。观察一些可供投资者使用的杠杆率最高的投资工具后，我们发现，目前情况不容乐观，有大量证据表明存在着极端投机的情况。”\n\n鉴于现金和债券等许多资产的收益率处于历史低位，投资者已经做好了大举买入风险较高资产的准备。他们开始关注股票和期权，期望获得其他资产所不能给予的收益。\nSusquehanna的衍生品策略师Chris Murphy在11月指出，期权组合综合考虑了高波动性和高估值，“可能是提高收益率的一种好方法”。\n\n在上周的一份研究报告中，美国银行的策略师利用更普遍的股市指标来证明熊市的迹象，结果发现63%的指标吻合，包括基金的资金外流、芝加哥期权交易所VIX指数（CBOE Volatility Index）上升以及消费者信心高涨。\n不过泡沫已经膨胀到临近破灭的边缘，并不等同于股市毁灭。尽管VIX指数创下了三个月来的新高，但仍低于2018年9月份79%的峰值水平。\nSavita Subramanian等美银策略分析师写道：\n\n “熊市信号（通常指在标普500指数达到峰值之前触发的信号）越来越明显，我们预测，2021年标普500指数的回报率将会很低。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2069,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}