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Unclequek
2021-04-12

Whose problem

Car companies are short of core and stuck in their necks, whose blame?

全世界都开始闹“芯”慌了。因为缺“芯”（芯片），车企直接停产了。蔚来就喊话：我们撑不住了，必须得停产五天。而且这还不是一家缺“芯”，也不单是中国车企告急。国外的大众、通用，甚至是一向以供应链安全为

Car companies are short of core and stuck in their necks, whose blame?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":342625323,"tweetId":"342625323","gmtCreate":1618213215862,"gmtModify":1704707576264,"author":{"id":3578974580733428,"idStr":"3578974580733428","authorId":3578974580733428,"authorIdStr":"3578974580733428","name":"Unclequek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/211db907838451b68235ebb8c7794a6c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Whose problem&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Whose problem&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Whose problem","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342625323","repostId":2126059738,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126059738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618209183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2126059738?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 14:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Car companies are short of core and stuck in their necks, whose blame?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126059738","media":"深燃","summary":"全世界都开始闹“芯”慌了。\n因为缺“芯”（芯片），车企直接停产了。蔚来就喊话：我们撑不住了，必须得停产五天。而且这还不是一家缺“芯”，也不单是中国车企告急。\n国外的大众、通用，甚至是一向以供应链安全为","content":"The whole world began to panic.Due to the lack of \"core\" (chip), car companies directly stopped production.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Just shout: We can't hold it any longer, we must stop production for five days. Moreover, this is not a lack of \"core\", nor is it just a Chinese car company in a hurry.Foreign Volkswagen, General Motors, and even Toyota and Honda, which have always focused on supply chain security, have also fallen into a core shortage crisis.In fact, since the beginning of December last year, some automobile companies have been revealed by the media that they have suspended production due to lack of cores. In the past year, the first quarter has passed, and the chip crisis has not only failed to be resolved, but has intensified, and even spread to the world and become a global supply chain crisis.Der Spiegel reported that Berett, an expert from Roland Berger Management Consulting Company, said that since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, the automobile supply chain has never encountered such serious problems. According to statistics, affected by the chip shortage, global automobile production in the first quarter of 2021 will be approximately 672,000 vehicles less than expected. Among them, China is the country most affected by the shortage, with a production reduction of approximately 250,000 vehicles in the first quarter.These century-old car giants, because of their small chips, have suffered critical blows one after another-production cuts, production suspensions, work suspensions, and even directly faced huge economic losses.Why is there a sudden shortage of cores? What do chips mean for cars?Global car companies, collective \"core\" panicThe first to be revealed that the core was short was North and South Volkswagen.In December last year, a piece of news from CCTV's \"Economic Information Network\" made the issue of \"lack of core\" popular. According to the report, Volkswagen was affected by insufficient chip supply. SAIC-Volkswagen began to suspend production on December 4, and FAW-Volkswagen also entered a state of suspension in early December.Afterwards, the public responded that it was trying to find a solution, which was equivalent to admitting in disguise-\"Yes, we have no core.\"At this time, many people may still think that the shortage of cores in car companies is temporary. But the subsequent development made everyone realize that things are not that simple.After the shortage of chips in the North and South Volkswagen was exposed, auto parts giants such as Continental Group and Bosch Group unanimously voiced their voices, warning that the shortage of chips used in automobile manufacturing may affect automobile production, including the Chinese market, and this impact will continue until next year.The haze of core shortage began to gradually envelope the global automotive supply chain. Over the past few years, more and more car companies have reported that they are out of core. The crisis has not only failed to be solved, but it has intensified, like dominoes.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e1017f189dc306ad40ed28392c15d3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source/UnsplashNissan, Volvo, Ford, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, etc., more and more car companies are forced to reduce production and suspend production due to lack of cores. And not only China, but also factories in many places around the world, such as Germany, the United States, and India, are facing chip shortages.Even Toyota and Honda, which have always focused on supply chain security, are in crisis.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>It was announced in March that most of the company's auto plants in the U.S. and Canada would be closed starting March 22 and continuing until March 29.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>It also announced production cuts at four factories in North America.Some car companies have to tighten their belts to supply limited chips to the most needed product lines. For example, Daimler gives priority to providing chips to production lines that produce Mercedes-Benz S-Class and other models;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6N.UK\">Volkswagen Group</a>Ensure that chips can be given priority to Porsche models and Skoda's newly launched pure electric SUV models...As time goes by, this list of core shortages has not only failed to be shortened, but has even become longer and longer. March 26th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It was announced that due to the shortage of chips, the company decided to suspend production at the Hefei Jianghuai Nio manufacturing plant for 5 working days starting from March 29, 2021, which caused an uproar in public opinion.As the supply of chips exceeds demand, upstream suppliers have begun to sit down and raise prices. The price supplied by some manufacturers has increased by 10-20%, and the delivery time has been extended from the normal two months to four months. Dutch automotive chip supplier<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Customers have begun to be informed that the prices of all products will have to be increased due to a \"substantial increase\" in material costs and a \"severe shortage\" of chips.What's even worse is that production has been reduced or even suspended. In this major crisis that has affected the world, car companies that are short of cores are suffering huge losses.Volkswagen, which first broke out the shortage of chips, calculated that it will produce 100,000 fewer cars in the first quarter due to the shortage of chips. Volkswagen's external spokesman even said angrily that it would consider claiming compensation from poorly prepared first-tier suppliers such as Bosch and Continental.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>It is estimated that the chip shortage may reduce profits by $2.5 billion this year.From a global perspective, affected by the chip shortage, global automobile production in the first quarter of 2021 will be approximately 672,000 vehicles less than expected. Among them, China is the country most affected by the shortage, with a production reduction of approximately 250,000 vehicles in the first quarter.Behind the lack of core, whose pot?A cold knowledge is that nowadays, whether it is a fuel vehicle or an electric vehicle, dozens of chips will be equipped on the body. Among them, an ordinary car will use at least 40 kinds of chips, while high-end models require 150 kinds of chips.Wang Feng, the relevant person in charge of Leapmotor, explained the importance of chips to the current automobile industry: Today's cars are different from traditional cars, mainly in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Software and hardware aspects. The core technologies of traditional automobiles are engine, gearbox, and axle, while the core technologies of future new energy vehicles will be batteries and chips.\"If it was a car from a long time ago, it might not need a chip, but it doesn't work now. Our users have changed.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The needs of driving and the needs of the Internet of Vehicles both require chip technology, so chips can be said to be one of the manifestations of current automobile differentiation. \"Chips in cars have different functions and are roughly divided into various categories such as microprocessors (MCUs), analog circuits, sensors, and AI chips. The MCU is the largest part (about 30%).Chips are also divided into levels. High-end chips such as autonomous driving chips and smart cockpit chips are not needed by car companies. One or two are enough. The output of low-end chips is large enough, so there is no shortage. \"This time car companies are short of cores, mainly mid-range 8-bit functional MCU chips.\" Cao Shufeng, an automotive electronics engineer, pointed out.These mid-range chips are not high in technology, with a unit price of up to a few dollars, but they are widely used in vehicle bodies. An MCU is equivalent to the cerebellum that controls each function of the car. All sub-systems of the car body, including fan control, air conditioning control, wipers, sunroof, etc., all need MCU control. This means that if these MCU chips are missing, some very basic functions of the car cannot be applied, and a car will be built in vain.Wang Feng said, \"There is indeed a shortage of MCU chips now. In particular, the ESP electronic stability system, including ECU trip computer and other functions, cannot be realized.\"This also explains why the chip shortage has had such a big impact on the automobile manufacturing industry, and even the crisis has swept the world.But after all, why is there a lack of MCU chips? Without the chip, wouldn't it be over to recreate it?It's not that simple. The chip manufacturing industry chain is long and complex. The production cycle of semiconductor wafers takes about 12 weeks on average, after which they have to be assembled, tested, finished and delivered. Calculated overall, the delivery time from the customer placing the order to the receipt of the final product can take up to 26 weeks (about half a year).Equivalent, car companies need to predict the market six months in advance to place orders. Moreover, in many cases, car manufacturers do not communicate directly with MCU chip manufacturers, and have to go through middlemen such as wafer foundries and first-and second-tier suppliers to earn the price difference.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d0f3f16577d107c15a2066eabdd3fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source/Guangdong Securities Research ReportReport source/CVSource investment dataThis also means that once there is a mismatch between supply and demand, or there is an error in a certain link, the rhythm of the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain will be disrupted, and the storm will sweep the entire industry.Seeing this, you can almost understand that the above-mentioned series of crises must be a problem in any link of the industrial chain.In fact, the biggest variable in the entire industry is the epidemic. At the beginning of 2020, McKinsey predicted that due to the severe impact of the epidemic, world automobile sales may decrease by nearly 30% in 2020, sales in the Chinese market will decrease by 15%, sales in the United States and Europe will decrease by 18%-36%, and production will decrease by nearly 5 million vehicles respectively, which cannot be recovered in the short term.It is expected that production may decrease, so major car companies have reduced orders for chips. Unexpectedly, in the second half of the year, the auto market began to recover or even rebound, especially the Chinese market began to grow explosively. Orders on the demand side have surged. According to the original plan, chips must be in short supply.It's not enough in itself, and there are people who grab the supply of goods. For chip manufacturers, the most profitable and largest demand for orders actually comes from the consumer electronics industry, such as laptops, games, etc. It is also because of the epidemic that people spend more time at home. Since 2020, the demand for consumer electronics products has soared, and more chip orders will definitely be given priority to the demand side with money and volume. Car companies that don't have much share themselves and are still half-beat slow to respond have obviously lost in this round of battle for goods.Let's look at the supply side again.You know, most MCU chip manufacturers have always been reluctant to manufacture automotive chips because of low profits and high standards, which is hard work. From a global perspective, there are only a few manufacturers willing to manufacture such chips. Moreover, such manufacturers have always stood at the bottom of the entire industrial chain and have little say, making it difficult to expand production or change production lines.The entire industrial chain is very fragile. Once a large order is encountered, it will definitely not be able to supply it even if it works overtime.In itself, there are more monks and less meat, and there are many natural disasters. The most important material in a chip factory is actually wafer. Last year, several semiconductor companies had frequent fires, resulting in a shortage of wafers. For example, at the end of October last year, the factory of Asahi Kasei, a Japanese semiconductor company that produces wafers, caught fire. It took three days to stop burning, and the factory stopped working on the spot. Semiconductor factories need to operate 24 hours a day, and the losses after a few days of shutdown are very heavy.\"It is equivalent to that the problem of core shortage is caused by some comprehensive reasons. This mismatch between supply and demand has jointly triggered such a crisis.\" Wang Feng said.Can the core shortage crisis still be saved?Is it possible to alleviate the problem of core shortage?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The judgment is that the shortage may last for more than a year.IHS (Essen Huamai, a financial information company) predicts that although the supply chain will still be constrained in the third quarter, the shortage of automotive chips will bottom out around the end of March and improve from the end of April, but it will still not meet the demand of OEMs. In the third quarter, the supply of MCUs can meet the continued demand of OEMs at that time, but may not be able to make up for the lost demand in the first half of 2021. To put it bluntly, it won't be solved for a while.Cao Shufeng pointed out to Shenran: Chip production capacity cannot be replenished in a short while. Now the global demand for consumer electronics is stable, consumer electronics wafer production capacity cannot be evenly distributed to automotive electronics, and a new 8-inch production line cannot be built in a short while. Yes, so the shortage of automobile cores will continue for some time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c4c0a26e0a51e3fdb96f12986d5878\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source/PexelsBut for the domestic market, this shortage of cores has exposed a bigger problem-the localization rate of China's MCUs is very low.\"China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The report \"Automotive Supply Chain White Paper\" shows that among the top 20 companies in the automotive semiconductor industry, there is only one local company in China. In China's annual automotive market of 28 million vehicles, China's automotive semiconductor output value accounts for less than 5% of the world's total. The import ratio of key parts exceeds 80%-90%.The global power semiconductor supply chain is almost entirely controlled by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">Ansenmei</a>, STMicroelectronics and other foreign semiconductor manufacturers. Equivalent, China's semiconductor industry chain is still weak in terms of automobiles, and it is difficult to seize the cake.\"Therefore, for domestic car companies, another fundamental reason for this chip crisis is that most of China's chips rely on imports, which also leads to the fact that once suppliers have problems, OEMs will be implicated and lack chips.\" Wang Feng pointed out, \"In fact, under the trend of globalization, most OEMs choose more convenient and cost-saving suppliers to purchase. Moreover, China started late in chips. In addition, chips are high-precision technologies, and it takes some time to be deployed and applied.\"But this is also a rare opportunity. Recently, the semiconductor industry has become hot, and the stock prices of related companies have soared. Many car companies have also left the market to deploy the automotive chip industry to make up for their shortcomings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">SAIC Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, Great Wall and other car companies have established joint ventures with semiconductor manufacturers. Horizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>Domestic companies such as Xinchi Technology and Xinchi Technology are also focusing on the field of automotive-grade chips.In the long run, these mid-to low-end chips may be gradually replaced by high-end AI chips such as autonomous driving and car-machine systems. An analyst pointed out: \"Under the trend of central computing architecture, one or two main chips can completely replace all MCUs and computing chips on the current distributed electronic and electrical architecture.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Is the most typical example. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>After parting ways,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It took 3 years to self-develop the FSD chip, which is one of the best in the industry in terms of manufacturing process and computing power. It is equivalent to Tesla's autonomy and being able to customize its own chips without being constrained by the supply chain.Cao Shufeng pointed out, \"For high-end AI chips, you must develop yourself, because when a car company's autonomous driving route is fixed, it is the most cost-effective way to independently develop ASIC chips that best match its own AI algorithm.\"In order to realize chip freedom, more and more car companies have begun to enter the game. For example, BAIC, Geely and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Wait for car companies to start building cores; Nio also announced its own research and development of chips, which was mainly promoted by chairman and CEO Li Bin. On October 27, 2020, Leapmotor released the first nationally produced car-grade AI intelligent driving chip with completely independent intellectual property rights-Lingxin 01 chip.\"The trend of electronic and electrical architecture is to gradually evolve from distributed architecture to integrated architecture. Theoretically, it can be controlled by one chip, but it is not absolute.\" Wang Feng said: \"Because some functions are due to cost and safety performance considerations, or because there are many electronic control modules in automobiles, which still need to be provided by parts suppliers, some MCUs or ECUs will still exist. But the trend of self-developed chips is undoubtedly the general direction of the future.\"* The title picture is from Pexels. At the request of the interviewee, Wang Feng is a pseudonym in this article.Disclaimer: The content provided by We Media Comprehensive comes from We Media, and the copyright belongs to the original author. Please contact the original author for permission to reprint. The opinions of the article only represent the author himself, not<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Position. If the content involves investment advice, it is for reference only and should not be used as an investment basis. 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Moreover, this is not a lack of \"core\", nor is it just a Chinese car company in a hurry.Foreign Volkswagen, General Motors, and even Toyota and Honda, which have always focused on supply chain security, have also fallen into a core shortage crisis.In fact, since the beginning of December last year, some automobile companies have been revealed by the media that they have suspended production due to lack of cores. In the past year, the first quarter has passed, and the chip crisis has not only failed to be resolved, but has intensified, and even spread to the world and become a global supply chain crisis.Der Spiegel reported that Berett, an expert from Roland Berger Management Consulting Company, said that since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, the automobile supply chain has never encountered such serious problems. According to statistics, affected by the chip shortage, global automobile production in the first quarter of 2021 will be approximately 672,000 vehicles less than expected. Among them, China is the country most affected by the shortage, with a production reduction of approximately 250,000 vehicles in the first quarter.These century-old car giants, because of their small chips, have suffered critical blows one after another-production cuts, production suspensions, work suspensions, and even directly faced huge economic losses.Why is there a sudden shortage of cores? What do chips mean for cars?Global car companies, collective \"core\" panicThe first to be revealed that the core was short was North and South Volkswagen.In December last year, a piece of news from CCTV's \"Economic Information Network\" made the issue of \"lack of core\" popular. According to the report, Volkswagen was affected by insufficient chip supply. SAIC-Volkswagen began to suspend production on December 4, and FAW-Volkswagen also entered a state of suspension in early December.Afterwards, the public responded that it was trying to find a solution, which was equivalent to admitting in disguise-\"Yes, we have no core.\"At this time, many people may still think that the shortage of cores in car companies is temporary. But the subsequent development made everyone realize that things are not that simple.After the shortage of chips in the North and South Volkswagen was exposed, auto parts giants such as Continental Group and Bosch Group unanimously voiced their voices, warning that the shortage of chips used in automobile manufacturing may affect automobile production, including the Chinese market, and this impact will continue until next year.The haze of core shortage began to gradually envelope the global automotive supply chain. Over the past few years, more and more car companies have reported that they are out of core. The crisis has not only failed to be solved, but it has intensified, like dominoes.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e1017f189dc306ad40ed28392c15d3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source/UnsplashNissan, Volvo, Ford, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, etc., more and more car companies are forced to reduce production and suspend production due to lack of cores. And not only China, but also factories in many places around the world, such as Germany, the United States, and India, are facing chip shortages.Even Toyota and Honda, which have always focused on supply chain security, are in crisis.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>It was announced in March that most of the company's auto plants in the U.S. and Canada would be closed starting March 22 and continuing until March 29.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>It also announced production cuts at four factories in North America.Some car companies have to tighten their belts to supply limited chips to the most needed product lines. For example, Daimler gives priority to providing chips to production lines that produce Mercedes-Benz S-Class and other models;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6N.UK\">Volkswagen Group</a>Ensure that chips can be given priority to Porsche models and Skoda's newly launched pure electric SUV models...As time goes by, this list of core shortages has not only failed to be shortened, but has even become longer and longer. March 26th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It was announced that due to the shortage of chips, the company decided to suspend production at the Hefei Jianghuai Nio manufacturing plant for 5 working days starting from March 29, 2021, which caused an uproar in public opinion.As the supply of chips exceeds demand, upstream suppliers have begun to sit down and raise prices. The price supplied by some manufacturers has increased by 10-20%, and the delivery time has been extended from the normal two months to four months. Dutch automotive chip supplier<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>Customers have begun to be informed that the prices of all products will have to be increased due to a \"substantial increase\" in material costs and a \"severe shortage\" of chips.What's even worse is that production has been reduced or even suspended. In this major crisis that has affected the world, car companies that are short of cores are suffering huge losses.Volkswagen, which first broke out the shortage of chips, calculated that it will produce 100,000 fewer cars in the first quarter due to the shortage of chips. Volkswagen's external spokesman even said angrily that it would consider claiming compensation from poorly prepared first-tier suppliers such as Bosch and Continental.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>It is estimated that the chip shortage may reduce profits by $2.5 billion this year.From a global perspective, affected by the chip shortage, global automobile production in the first quarter of 2021 will be approximately 672,000 vehicles less than expected. Among them, China is the country most affected by the shortage, with a production reduction of approximately 250,000 vehicles in the first quarter.Behind the lack of core, whose pot?A cold knowledge is that nowadays, whether it is a fuel vehicle or an electric vehicle, dozens of chips will be equipped on the body. Among them, an ordinary car will use at least 40 kinds of chips, while high-end models require 150 kinds of chips.Wang Feng, the relevant person in charge of Leapmotor, explained the importance of chips to the current automobile industry: Today's cars are different from traditional cars, mainly in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Software and hardware aspects. The core technologies of traditional automobiles are engine, gearbox, and axle, while the core technologies of future new energy vehicles will be batteries and chips.\"If it was a car from a long time ago, it might not need a chip, but it doesn't work now. Our users have changed.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The needs of driving and the needs of the Internet of Vehicles both require chip technology, so chips can be said to be one of the manifestations of current automobile differentiation. \"Chips in cars have different functions and are roughly divided into various categories such as microprocessors (MCUs), analog circuits, sensors, and AI chips. The MCU is the largest part (about 30%).Chips are also divided into levels. High-end chips such as autonomous driving chips and smart cockpit chips are not needed by car companies. One or two are enough. The output of low-end chips is large enough, so there is no shortage. \"This time car companies are short of cores, mainly mid-range 8-bit functional MCU chips.\" Cao Shufeng, an automotive electronics engineer, pointed out.These mid-range chips are not high in technology, with a unit price of up to a few dollars, but they are widely used in vehicle bodies. An MCU is equivalent to the cerebellum that controls each function of the car. All sub-systems of the car body, including fan control, air conditioning control, wipers, sunroof, etc., all need MCU control. This means that if these MCU chips are missing, some very basic functions of the car cannot be applied, and a car will be built in vain.Wang Feng said, \"There is indeed a shortage of MCU chips now. In particular, the ESP electronic stability system, including ECU trip computer and other functions, cannot be realized.\"This also explains why the chip shortage has had such a big impact on the automobile manufacturing industry, and even the crisis has swept the world.But after all, why is there a lack of MCU chips? Without the chip, wouldn't it be over to recreate it?It's not that simple. The chip manufacturing industry chain is long and complex. The production cycle of semiconductor wafers takes about 12 weeks on average, after which they have to be assembled, tested, finished and delivered. Calculated overall, the delivery time from the customer placing the order to the receipt of the final product can take up to 26 weeks (about half a year).Equivalent, car companies need to predict the market six months in advance to place orders. Moreover, in many cases, car manufacturers do not communicate directly with MCU chip manufacturers, and have to go through middlemen such as wafer foundries and first-and second-tier suppliers to earn the price difference.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d0f3f16577d107c15a2066eabdd3fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source/Guangdong Securities Research ReportReport source/CVSource investment dataThis also means that once there is a mismatch between supply and demand, or there is an error in a certain link, the rhythm of the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain will be disrupted, and the storm will sweep the entire industry.Seeing this, you can almost understand that the above-mentioned series of crises must be a problem in any link of the industrial chain.In fact, the biggest variable in the entire industry is the epidemic. At the beginning of 2020, McKinsey predicted that due to the severe impact of the epidemic, world automobile sales may decrease by nearly 30% in 2020, sales in the Chinese market will decrease by 15%, sales in the United States and Europe will decrease by 18%-36%, and production will decrease by nearly 5 million vehicles respectively, which cannot be recovered in the short term.It is expected that production may decrease, so major car companies have reduced orders for chips. Unexpectedly, in the second half of the year, the auto market began to recover or even rebound, especially the Chinese market began to grow explosively. Orders on the demand side have surged. According to the original plan, chips must be in short supply.It's not enough in itself, and there are people who grab the supply of goods. For chip manufacturers, the most profitable and largest demand for orders actually comes from the consumer electronics industry, such as laptops, games, etc. It is also because of the epidemic that people spend more time at home. Since 2020, the demand for consumer electronics products has soared, and more chip orders will definitely be given priority to the demand side with money and volume. Car companies that don't have much share themselves and are still half-beat slow to respond have obviously lost in this round of battle for goods.Let's look at the supply side again.You know, most MCU chip manufacturers have always been reluctant to manufacture automotive chips because of low profits and high standards, which is hard work. From a global perspective, there are only a few manufacturers willing to manufacture such chips. Moreover, such manufacturers have always stood at the bottom of the entire industrial chain and have little say, making it difficult to expand production or change production lines.The entire industrial chain is very fragile. Once a large order is encountered, it will definitely not be able to supply it even if it works overtime.In itself, there are more monks and less meat, and there are many natural disasters. The most important material in a chip factory is actually wafer. Last year, several semiconductor companies had frequent fires, resulting in a shortage of wafers. For example, at the end of October last year, the factory of Asahi Kasei, a Japanese semiconductor company that produces wafers, caught fire. It took three days to stop burning, and the factory stopped working on the spot. Semiconductor factories need to operate 24 hours a day, and the losses after a few days of shutdown are very heavy.\"It is equivalent to that the problem of core shortage is caused by some comprehensive reasons. This mismatch between supply and demand has jointly triggered such a crisis.\" Wang Feng said.Can the core shortage crisis still be saved?Is it possible to alleviate the problem of core shortage?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>The judgment is that the shortage may last for more than a year.IHS (Essen Huamai, a financial information company) predicts that although the supply chain will still be constrained in the third quarter, the shortage of automotive chips will bottom out around the end of March and improve from the end of April, but it will still not meet the demand of OEMs. In the third quarter, the supply of MCUs can meet the continued demand of OEMs at that time, but may not be able to make up for the lost demand in the first half of 2021. To put it bluntly, it won't be solved for a while.Cao Shufeng pointed out to Shenran: Chip production capacity cannot be replenished in a short while. Now the global demand for consumer electronics is stable, consumer electronics wafer production capacity cannot be evenly distributed to automotive electronics, and a new 8-inch production line cannot be built in a short while. Yes, so the shortage of automobile cores will continue for some time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c4c0a26e0a51e3fdb96f12986d5878\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source/PexelsBut for the domestic market, this shortage of cores has exposed a bigger problem-the localization rate of China's MCUs is very low.\"China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The report \"Automotive Supply Chain White Paper\" shows that among the top 20 companies in the automotive semiconductor industry, there is only one local company in China. In China's annual automotive market of 28 million vehicles, China's automotive semiconductor output value accounts for less than 5% of the world's total. The import ratio of key parts exceeds 80%-90%.The global power semiconductor supply chain is almost entirely controlled by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">Ansenmei</a>, STMicroelectronics and other foreign semiconductor manufacturers. Equivalent, China's semiconductor industry chain is still weak in terms of automobiles, and it is difficult to seize the cake.\"Therefore, for domestic car companies, another fundamental reason for this chip crisis is that most of China's chips rely on imports, which also leads to the fact that once suppliers have problems, OEMs will be implicated and lack chips.\" Wang Feng pointed out, \"In fact, under the trend of globalization, most OEMs choose more convenient and cost-saving suppliers to purchase. Moreover, China started late in chips. In addition, chips are high-precision technologies, and it takes some time to be deployed and applied.\"But this is also a rare opportunity. Recently, the semiconductor industry has become hot, and the stock prices of related companies have soared. Many car companies have also left the market to deploy the automotive chip industry to make up for their shortcomings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">SAIC Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, Great Wall and other car companies have established joint ventures with semiconductor manufacturers. Horizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>Domestic companies such as Xinchi Technology and Xinchi Technology are also focusing on the field of automotive-grade chips.In the long run, these mid-to low-end chips may be gradually replaced by high-end AI chips such as autonomous driving and car-machine systems. An analyst pointed out: \"Under the trend of central computing architecture, one or two main chips can completely replace all MCUs and computing chips on the current distributed electronic and electrical architecture.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Is the most typical example. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>After parting ways,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It took 3 years to self-develop the FSD chip, which is one of the best in the industry in terms of manufacturing process and computing power. It is equivalent to Tesla's autonomy and being able to customize its own chips without being constrained by the supply chain.Cao Shufeng pointed out, \"For high-end AI chips, you must develop yourself, because when a car company's autonomous driving route is fixed, it is the most cost-effective way to independently develop ASIC chips that best match its own AI algorithm.\"In order to realize chip freedom, more and more car companies have begun to enter the game. For example, BAIC, Geely and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Wait for car companies to start building cores; Nio also announced its own research and development of chips, which was mainly promoted by chairman and CEO Li Bin. On October 27, 2020, Leapmotor released the first nationally produced car-grade AI intelligent driving chip with completely independent intellectual property rights-Lingxin 01 chip.\"The trend of electronic and electrical architecture is to gradually evolve from distributed architecture to integrated architecture. Theoretically, it can be controlled by one chip, but it is not absolute.\" Wang Feng said: \"Because some functions are due to cost and safety performance considerations, or because there are many electronic control modules in automobiles, which still need to be provided by parts suppliers, some MCUs or ECUs will still exist. But the trend of self-developed chips is undoubtedly the general direction of the future.\"* The title picture is from Pexels. At the request of the interviewee, Wang Feng is a pseudonym in this article.Disclaimer: The content provided by We Media Comprehensive comes from We Media, and the copyright belongs to the original author. Please contact the original author for permission to reprint. The opinions of the article only represent the author himself, not<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Position. If the content involves investment advice, it is for reference only and should not be used as an investment basis. Investment is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F10IXCjqFs0AT-MUA7Eh7A\">深燃</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c4c0a26e0a51e3fdb96f12986d5878","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F10IXCjqFs0AT-MUA7Eh7A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126059738","content_text":"全世界都开始闹“芯”慌了。\n因为缺“芯”（芯片），车企直接停产了。蔚来就喊话：我们撑不住了，必须得停产五天。而且这还不是一家缺“芯”，也不单是中国车企告急。\n国外的大众、通用，甚至是一向以供应链安全为核心的丰田和本田也陷入了缺芯危机。\n事实上，自去年12月初起，就有汽车企业被媒体爆出因缺芯陆续停产。转过年来，第一个季度已经过去了，芯片危机不仅没能解决，反而愈演愈烈，甚至蔓延至全球成为了全球性供应链危机。\n《明镜周刊》报道援引罗兰贝格管理咨询公司专家贝雷特的观点，自从日本福岛核灾以来，汽车供应链就没遇到过这么严重的问题。据统计，受芯片短缺影响，2021年第一季度全球汽车产量将比预期少约67.2万辆，其中中国是受短缺影响最严重的国家，第一季度约减产25万辆。\n这些百年车企巨头，因为小小的芯片，接连遭受暴击——减产、停产、停工，甚至是直接面临巨额的经济损失。\n为什么突然缺芯了呢？芯片对于车来说意味着什么？\n全球车企，集体“芯”慌\n首先被爆出缺芯的是南北大众。\n去年12月份，央视《经济信息联播》一则新闻就让“缺芯”这事儿火出了圈。报道中称大众汽车受芯片供应不足影响，上汽大众在12月4日开始停产，而一汽大众也在12月初进入了停产状态。\n事后，大众回应表示正在想办法解决，相当于变相承认了——“是的，我们没芯了”。\n到这个时候，可能很多人都还以为，车企缺芯是一时的。但随后的事态发展，才让大家意识到——事情没那么简单。\n在南北大众缺芯被曝光后，大陆集团以及博世集团等汽车零部件巨头不约而同地发声，预警用于汽车制造的芯片短缺可能会影响包括中国市场在内的汽车生产，而且这种影响将会一直持续至明年。\n缺芯的阴霾开始逐渐笼罩全球汽车供应链。转过年来，越来越多的车企爆出没芯了。危机不但没能解决，还愈演愈烈，仿佛多米诺骨牌一样。\n\n来源/Unsplash\n日产、沃尔沃、福特、大众、三菱等等，越来越多的车企因为缺芯被迫减产停产。而且不止是中国，德国、美国、印度等全球范围内的多地工厂都面临芯片不足的情况。\n就连一向以供应链安全为核心的丰田和本田也陷入了危机。本田汽车3月份宣布，公司位于美国和加拿大的大多数汽车工厂将从3月22日开始关闭，一直持续到3月29日。丰田汽车也宣布削减北美四家工厂的产量。\n有些车企不得不勒紧裤腰带把有限的芯片供给最需要的产品线。比如戴姆勒优先把芯片提供给生产奔驰S级等车型的生产线；大众集团确保芯片能优先供应保时捷旗下车型以及斯柯达新推出的纯电动SUV车型……\n随着时间的推移，这份缺芯名单不仅没能减短，甚至变得越来越长。3月26日，蔚来宣布，由于芯片短缺，公司决定自2021年3月29日起，合肥江淮蔚来制造工厂暂停生产5个工作日，一时舆论哗然。\n由于芯片供不应求，上游的供应商们开始坐地起价。有些厂商供货的价格调涨10-20%，交货期由正常的两个月延长到了四个月。荷兰汽车芯片供应商恩智浦已开始告知客户，由于材料成本“大幅上涨”和芯片“严重短缺”，所有产品的价格都得提高。\n更要命的是，减产甚至到停产，这场波及全球的大危机中，缺芯的车企们在蒙受巨大的损失。\n最开始爆出缺芯的大众算了一下账，第一季度将因为芯片短缺少生产10万辆汽车。大众对外发言人甚至非常愤怒地表示，将考虑向准备不周的博世、大陆集团等一级供应商索赔。福特汽车预计，芯片短缺或使今年的利润减少25亿美元。\n从全球看来，受芯片短缺影响，2021年第一季度全球汽车产量将比预期少约67.2万辆，其中中国是受短缺影响最严重的国家，第一季度约减产25万辆。\n缺芯背后，谁的锅？\n一个冷知识是，如今无论是燃油车还是电动车，车身上都会配置几十颗芯片。其中，一辆普通汽车至少会用到40多种芯片，而高端车型则需要150多种芯片。\n零跑汽车相关负责人王峰解释了芯片对于当下汽车产业的重要性：现在的汽车区别于传统的汽车，主要是在智能化的软硬件方面。传统汽车的核心技术是发动机、变速箱、车桥三大件，未来新能源汽车的核心技术则是电池和芯片。\n“如果是很早以前的汽车，可能并不需要芯片，但是当下行不通了，我们的用户已经变了。智能驾驶的需求、车联网的需求都需要芯片技术，所以芯片可以说是现在汽车差异化的表现之一。”\n汽车身上的芯片功能各异，大致分为微处理器（MCU）、模拟电路、传感器、AI芯片等多种类别。而MCU是占比最大的部分（约占30%）。\n芯片也分等级，高端芯片比如自动驾驶芯片和智能座舱芯片，车企需要的不多，一两个就够了。低端芯片产量足够大，所以也不缺。“这次车企缺芯，缺的主要是中端的8位功能MCU芯片。”汽车电子工程师曹书峰指出。\n这些中端芯片技术含量不高，单价最多几美元，但是在车身上的应用较多。一个MCU相当于控制汽车一个个功能的小脑。车体的各个次系统，包括风扇控制、空调控制、雨刷、天窗等等都需要MCU的控制。这就意味着，如果这些MCU芯片缺失，汽车的一些非常基础的功能都无法应用，一辆车也就白造了。\n王峰表示，“现在确实是MCU的芯片短缺。尤其是导致ESP电子稳定系统，包括ECU行车电脑等功能无法实现。”\n这也就解释了，为什么芯片吃紧对汽车制造行业产生如此大的影响，甚至这场危机席卷了全球。\n但说到底，为什么会缺MCU芯片呢？没芯片，再造不就完了吗？\n事情没那么简单。芯片制造产业链漫长而复杂。生产半导体晶圆的周期平均大约需要12周，之后还得组装、测试、制成最终成品、交付。整体计算下来，从客户下订单到收到最终产品的交货时间最多可能需要26周（半年左右）。\n相当于，车企需要提前半年预判行情下订单。而且，很多时候车厂并不是直接和MCU芯片厂商沟通，中间还要经历晶圆代工厂、一级二级供应商等中间商赚差价。\n\n资料来源/粤开证券研报\n报告来源 / CVSource投中数据\n这也就意味着，一旦供需出现错配，或者某个环节出现错误，整个上下游产业链节奏就会打乱，风暴会席卷整个行业。\n看到这儿差不多就理解，上述一系列的危机，肯定是产业链哪个环节出了问题。\n事实上，整个行业最大的变数就是疫情。2020年年初，麦肯锡预计受疫情严重影响，2020年世界汽车销量或将减少近三成，中国市场销量下降15%，美国和欧洲的销量将减少18%-36%，产量将分别减少近500万辆，短期内不可恢复。\n预计产量可能会减少，于是各大车企就纷纷减少了芯片的订单。万万没想到的是，到了下半年，车市开始恢复甚至反弹，尤其是中国市场开始爆发式增长。需求端的订单量激增，按照原先的计划，芯片肯定是供不应求的。\n本身就不够用，还有抢货源的。对于芯片厂来说，最赚钱的、订单量最大的需求其实来自消费类电子产品行业，比如笔记本电脑、游戏等等。也同样是因为疫情，人们宅家的时间变多了，2020年以来消费电子产品需求量猛增，更多的芯片订单肯定优先供给有钱且走量的需求方。本身就份额不多，而且反应还慢半拍的车企，显然在这一轮的抢货大战中败下阵来。\n我们再看供给端。\n要知道，一直以来，MCU芯片厂商们大多不愿意制造汽车芯片，因为利润低，而且标准高，是苦活累活。愿意制造这类芯片的，从全球来看也就几家厂商。而且这类厂商一直站在整个产业链的底端，没什么话语权，很难进行扩产或者改变生产线。\n整个产业链非常脆弱，一旦遇到大订单，肯定加班加点也供给不过来。\n本身就僧多肉少，天灾还很多。芯片厂最重要的材料其实是晶圆。去年几家半导体公司频频失火，导致晶圆紧缺。比如去年10月底，日本一家生产晶圆的半导体公司旭化成厂房起火，烧了三天才止住，工厂当场就停工了。半导体工厂是需要24小时不停歇运营的，几天的关停损失非常惨重。\n“相当于，缺芯的问题是由一些综合的原因共同导致的。这场供需端的错配，联合引发了这样一场危机。”王峰表示。\n缺芯危机还有救吗？\n缺芯的问题，有可能缓解吗？\n兴业证券的判断是，缺货可能还会持续一年以上。\nIHS（埃信华迈，一家金融信息公司）预计，尽管供应链第三季度仍会受限，但汽车芯片短缺的情况将在3月底左右触底，4月底起将有所改善，但仍不能满足主机厂的需求。在三季度，MCU的供应可以满足主机厂当时的持续需求，但可能无法弥补2021年上半年损失的需求。说白了就是，一时半会也解决不了。\n曹书峰对深燃指出：芯片产能不是一时半会说补就能补上的，现在全球消费电子需求稳定，消费电子晶圆产能无法匀给汽车电子，新建8英寸产线又不是一时半会能建成的，所以汽车缺芯还需要持续一段时间。\n\n来源/Pexels\n但是对于国内市场来说，这次缺芯暴露出来一个更大的问题——中国MCU的国产化率很低。\n《中国新能源汽车供应链白皮书》报告显示，汽车半导体行业排名前20的企业，中国的本土企业只有1家，在中国每年2800万辆的汽车市场，中国汽车半导体产值占全球的比例不到5%，部分关键零部件进口度比例超过80%—90%。\n全球功率半导体供应链几乎全部掌握在英飞凌、安森美、意法等国外半导体厂商手中。相当于，中国半导体产业链在汽车方面还很弱，很难抢占蛋糕。\n“所以这次芯片危机，对于国内车企来说，还有一层根本的原因是中国的芯片大部分依赖进口，这也导致，供应商一旦出现问题，主机厂就会受到牵连而缺芯。”王峰指出，“事实上，在全球化的趋势下，大多数主机厂选择更为方便和节约成本的供应商采购。而且我国在芯片方面起步晚。再加上，芯片属于高精尖技术，布局到应用需要一定时间。”\n但这也算是难得的机遇，最近半导体行业热了起来，相关公司股价飞涨。不少车企也纷纷下场布局车用芯片产业，以弥补短板。上汽集团、比亚迪、长城等车企与半导体厂商成立合资公司。地平线、寒武纪、芯驰科技等国内企业也在发力于车规级芯片领域。\n长远来看，这些中低端芯片有可能被高端AI芯片如自动驾驶、车机系统等芯片逐步取代。一位分析师指出：“在中央计算架构的趋势下，一两颗主芯片完全可以把现在分布式电子电气架构上的所有MCU和计算芯片所取代。”\n特斯拉就是一个最典型的例子。与英伟达分道扬镳后，特斯拉用了3年时间，自研了FSD芯片，无论是制程还是算力在业内都算数一数二。相当于特斯拉掌握了自主权，能够自我定制芯片，不受供应链牵制。\n曹书峰指出，“对于高端的AI芯片肯定是要自硏的，因为当一家汽车公司的自动驾驶路线固定以后，单独开发最匹配自家AI算法的ASIC芯片，是性价比最高的途径。”\n为了实现芯片自由，越来越多的车企开始入局。比如北汽、吉利和比亚迪等车企开始下场造芯；蔚来也宣布自主研发芯片，由董事长兼CEO李斌主推。2020年10月27日，零跑汽车发布了首款全国产化、具有完全自主知识产权的车规级AI智能驾驶芯片——凌芯01芯片。\n“电子电气架构的趋势方向是逐渐从分布式架构到集成式架构演进，理论上可以实现一颗芯片来控制，但不是绝对的。”王峰表示：“因为有些功能出于成本和安全性能考虑，或者由于汽车的电子控制模块也比较多，仍需由零部件供应商来提供，会导致一些MCU或ECU仍然存在。但自研芯片的趋势无疑是未来的大方向。”\n*题图来源于Pexels。应受访者要求，文中王峰为化名。\n免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1206,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}