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2021-04-16

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Three major Wall Street investment banks warned of a correction in US stocks, what happened?

标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？先是摩根士丹利向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500

Three major Wall Street investment banks warned of a correction in US stocks, what happened?

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In addition, Russell 2000 small-cap stocks have lagged the S&P 500 by 8% after peaking on March 12; The performance of some cyclical stocks that Morgan Stanley has been recommending in the past year has begun to become sluggish, while the defensive sector has performed relatively well; In addition, both the IPO and SPAC indexes lag behind by 20%, and have turned down during the year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05419a3bd0955b57f22d3682f818bcc\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"733\"><span>Comparison of S&P 500 Index and Russell 2000 Small Cap Stocks</span></p><p><b>What do these phenomena show? Wilson believes that the recent weakness of small-cap stocks and cyclical stocks may be a potential early warning sign that the actual restart of the economy may be much more difficult than people expect.</b>In the past year, small-cap stocks and cyclical stocks have risen astonishingly because investors have included economic restart expectations in the prices of these stocks in advance; However, when the restart really comes, investors may encounter execution risks, and some unexpected situations may arise.</p><p><b>He further pointed out that although policymakers have provided huge support to the economy through monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, the epidemic blockade has impacted or even destroyed supply.</b>That's why, everything from raw materials to logistics to labor, we're seeing signs of supply shortages. This could affect the Q1 earnings season, especially in terms of costs and margins, as well as forward guidance for Q2.</p><p>As for the cooling of IPOs and SPACs, it also shows that the remaining liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve has been overwhelmed by massive supply. From the strategist's experience, this tends to be a leading indicator that a tough time is ahead for the broader stock market.</p><p><b>Followed by Bank of America</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Savita Suramania, the bank's chief quantitative strategist, sent a report titled \"Five Reasons to Curb Enthusiasm\" to clients.</p><p>The strategist first asked a question: After Bank of America economists recently raised their U.S. GDP forecasts, and after several companies provided optimistic performance guidance, prompting Bank of America to raise its 2021 EPS forecast, the bank still did not change the S&P 500's target price of 3,800 by year-end? Even more than 300 points below the current price level?</p><p>\"Given that sentiment is gradually becoming frenetic, high valuations, stimulus has peaked, we think the market has over-counted the positive news.<b>We remain bullish on the economy, not the S&P 500.</b>\"The report said.</p><p>The bank listed five major reasons, including: 1. Bank of America's sell-side indicator is less than 1 percentage point away from reaching the \"extremely excited\" area; 2. The valuation of the S&P 500 index means that the return on income in the next ten years will be extremely low (2% annualized); 3. 75% of the time in history, the 12-month return of the S&P 500 index is 2 + standard deviations higher than the historical average, and it will fall next; 4. The fair value model shows that the S&P 500 index is 3635 points; 5. The stock risk premium fell below 400 basis points, which is a negative signal against the trend.</p><p><b>Finally, Deutsche Bank</b></p><p>Binky Chadha, the bank's chief equity strategist, said that historically, stocks have been closely related to cyclical macro growth indicators such as ISM, with a correlation of up to 73%. Typically, growth, as measured by ISM, peaks about a year (more precisely, 10-11 months) after the end of the recession.</p><p>Therefore, Deutsche Bank expects that in the \"very near future\", stocks will continue to be supported by accelerated macro growth, and systematic strategies and corporate buybacks will continue to buy stocks, pushing stocks higher; However,<b>The bank expects that in the next three months, as growth peaks, U.S. stocks will see a major adjustment (-6% to-10% correction).</b></p><p>Statistically, at the peak of growth, the median decline of the S&P 500 was-8.4%; Even if the ISM flattens rather than slides, the S&P 500 has a median decline of-5.9%. As for the timing of the decline, the S&P 500 usually sells off two weeks after the ISM peaks, with a median duration of 6 weeks.</p><p>The only good news is that Deutsche Bank believes that after the adjustment, U.S. stocks will rebound, and the subsequent risks are mainly around inflation and the Fed's response to this.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three major Wall Street investment banks warned of a correction in US stocks, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree major Wall Street investment banks warned of a correction in US stocks, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-15 18:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&P 500 is near record highs, but three big investment banks on Wall Street have warned of a potential pullback in just four days-why?</p><p><b>First Morgan Stanley</b></p><p>Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, who has always been a big bull in U.S. stocks, said last weekend that although the S&P 500 index continues to hit new highs, \"below the surface, there are obvious changes in the stock classes supporting the broader market, which may be It's telling us something that is not easily noticeable about the economic restart.\"</p><p>Wilson noticed four phenomena, and this is one of them. In addition, Russell 2000 small-cap stocks have lagged the S&P 500 by 8% after peaking on March 12; The performance of some cyclical stocks that Morgan Stanley has been recommending in the past year has begun to become sluggish, while the defensive sector has performed relatively well; In addition, both the IPO and SPAC indexes lag behind by 20%, and have turned down during the year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05419a3bd0955b57f22d3682f818bcc\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"733\"><span>Comparison of S&P 500 Index and Russell 2000 Small Cap Stocks</span></p><p><b>What do these phenomena show? Wilson believes that the recent weakness of small-cap stocks and cyclical stocks may be a potential early warning sign that the actual restart of the economy may be much more difficult than people expect.</b>In the past year, small-cap stocks and cyclical stocks have risen astonishingly because investors have included economic restart expectations in the prices of these stocks in advance; However, when the restart really comes, investors may encounter execution risks, and some unexpected situations may arise.</p><p><b>He further pointed out that although policymakers have provided huge support to the economy through monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, the epidemic blockade has impacted or even destroyed supply.</b>That's why, everything from raw materials to logistics to labor, we're seeing signs of supply shortages. This could affect the Q1 earnings season, especially in terms of costs and margins, as well as forward guidance for Q2.</p><p>As for the cooling of IPOs and SPACs, it also shows that the remaining liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve has been overwhelmed by massive supply. From the strategist's experience, this tends to be a leading indicator that a tough time is ahead for the broader stock market.</p><p><b>Followed by Bank of America</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Savita Suramania, the bank's chief quantitative strategist, sent a report titled \"Five Reasons to Curb Enthusiasm\" to clients.</p><p>The strategist first asked a question: After Bank of America economists recently raised their U.S. GDP forecasts, and after several companies provided optimistic performance guidance, prompting Bank of America to raise its 2021 EPS forecast, the bank still did not change the S&P 500's target price of 3,800 by year-end? Even more than 300 points below the current price level?</p><p>\"Given that sentiment is gradually becoming frenetic, high valuations, stimulus has peaked, we think the market has over-counted the positive news.<b>We remain bullish on the economy, not the S&P 500.</b>\"The report said.</p><p>The bank listed five major reasons, including: 1. Bank of America's sell-side indicator is less than 1 percentage point away from reaching the \"extremely excited\" area; 2. The valuation of the S&P 500 index means that the return on income in the next ten years will be extremely low (2% annualized); 3. 75% of the time in history, the 12-month return of the S&P 500 index is 2 + standard deviations higher than the historical average, and it will fall next; 4. The fair value model shows that the S&P 500 index is 3635 points; 5. The stock risk premium fell below 400 basis points, which is a negative signal against the trend.</p><p><b>Finally, Deutsche Bank</b></p><p>Binky Chadha, the bank's chief equity strategist, said that historically, stocks have been closely related to cyclical macro growth indicators such as ISM, with a correlation of up to 73%. Typically, growth, as measured by ISM, peaks about a year (more precisely, 10-11 months) after the end of the recession.</p><p>Therefore, Deutsche Bank expects that in the \"very near future\", stocks will continue to be supported by accelerated macro growth, and systematic strategies and corporate buybacks will continue to buy stocks, pushing stocks higher; However,<b>The bank expects that in the next three months, as growth peaks, U.S. stocks will see a major adjustment (-6% to-10% correction).</b></p><p>Statistically, at the peak of growth, the median decline of the S&P 500 was-8.4%; Even if the ISM flattens rather than slides, the S&P 500 has a median decline of-5.9%. As for the timing of the decline, the S&P 500 usually sells off two weeks after the ISM peaks, with a median duration of 6 weeks.</p><p>The only good news is that Deutsche Bank believes that after the adjustment, U.S. stocks will rebound, and the subsequent risks are mainly around inflation and the Fed's response to this.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9ac23bac84c629134c18540a11264a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127017550","content_text":"标普500指数正处于纪录高位附近，但华尔街在短短四天的时间内已经有三家大投行就潜在的回调发出警告——为什么？先是摩根士丹利向来是美股大多头的大摩首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在上周末表示，虽然标普500指数在持续创新高，“但在表面之下，支撑大盘的股票类别出现了明显的变化，这可能是在告诉我们一些关于经济重启的、不易为人所觉察的事情。”威尔逊注意到了四个现象，这是其中之一。除此之外，罗素2000小盘股在3月12日触顶之后，已经落后标普500指数8%；大摩过去一年一直在推荐的部分周期股表现开始变得低迷，而防御性板块表现相对比较好；还有就是，IPO和SPAC指数都有20%幅度的落后，年内已经转跌。标普500指数与罗素2000小盘股走势对比这些现象说明了什么？威尔逊认为，小盘股和周期股近期的弱势，可能是一个潜在的早期警告信号，即经济体的实际重启可能比人们预期的要困难得多。在过去一年，小盘股、周期股涨势惊人，是因为投资者提前在这些股票的价格中计入了经济重启预期；然而，当重启真正来临的时候，投资者可能会遭遇到执行方面的风险，还可能会有一些意想不到的情况出现。他又进一步指出，虽然政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济体提供了巨大的支撑，但是疫情封锁却冲击、甚至摧毁了供应。这也是为什么，从原材料到物流、到劳动力的所有领域，我们都看到了供应短缺的迹象。这可能会影响到Q1财报季，尤其是在成本和利润率方面，还有Q2的前瞻指引。至于IPO和SPAC的降温，也表明美联储提供的剩余流动性已经被大量供应所淹没。从该策略师的经验来看，这往往是更广泛股票市场即将面临艰难时刻的领先指标。紧接着是美国银行本周三，该行首席量化策略师萨维塔·苏拉曼尼亚向客户发送了一份题为《抑制热情的五大理由》的报告。这位策略师先是提出了一个问题：在美国银行经济学家最近上调了美国GDP预期之后，在多家企业提供了乐观的业绩指引、从而促使美国银行上调了2021年EPS预期之后，该行还是没有改变标普500指数到年底3800点的目标价？甚至还比当前的价格水平低逾300点？“鉴于市场情绪逐渐变得狂热、高企的估值、刺激措施已达到峰值，我们认为市场已经过度计入了利好消息。我们仍然看好经济，而非标普500指数。”报告称。该行列出了五大原因，包括：1、美国银行的卖方指标距离达到“极度兴奋”领域已经不到1个百分点；2、标普500指数的估值意味着未来十年的收益回报将极低（年化2%）；3、在历史上75%的时间，标普500指数12个月收益回报较历史均值高出2+标准差，接下来都会下跌；4、公允价值模型显示标普500指数为3635点；5、股票风险溢价跌破400个基点，这是一个逆势负面信号。最后是德意志银行该行首席股票策略师宾基·查德哈称，从历史上看，股票与ISM等周期性宏观增长指标紧密相关，相关性可达73%。通常，以ISM为指标的增长都会在衰退终结之后一年左右（更准确地说是10-11个月）触顶。因此，德银预计在“非常近的近期”，股票将会继续受到加速的宏观增长支撑，系统性策略和企业回购还将继续买入股票，推动股票走高；然而，该行预计，在未来3个月，随着增长触顶，美股将会出现重大的调整（-6%至-10%的回调）。从统计数据来看，在增长触顶时，标普500指数的跌幅中值为-8.4%；即使是ISM趋平而不是下滑，标普500指数也有-5.9%的中值跌幅。而至于下跌的时机，通常在ISM触顶两周后，标普500指数会出现抛售，持续时间中值为6周。唯一的好消息是，德银认为，在调整之后，美股还会回升，之后的风险主要都是围绕通胀和美联储对此的回应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1827,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}