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2021-03-24

The bond market is warming up, and the top of interest rates is clear

随着经济周期以及金融周期的触顶回落，债券利率的做多逻辑将更为顺畅，债券利率的交易空间也将进一步打开

The bond market is warming up, and the top of interest rates is clear

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":351915382,"tweetId":"351915382","gmtCreate":1616552590246,"gmtModify":1704795563116,"author":{"id":3576725256218989,"idStr":"3576725256218989","authorId":3576725256218989,"authorIdStr":"3576725256218989","name":"家永","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2bd55700e996ad58a5f66e4394f3c0d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>6</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>6</body></html>","text":"6","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351915382","repostId":2121370294,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121370294","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1616550692,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121370294?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 09:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The bond market is warming up, and the top of interest rates is clear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121370294","media":"格隆汇","summary":"随着经济周期以及金融周期的触顶回落，债券利率的做多逻辑将更为顺畅，债券利率的交易空间也将进一步打开","content":"CORE POINTAt present, the bullish factors of the bond market have not been fully released, and the economic recovery is not yet stable. At the same time, the financial cycle may also turn downward. In the short term, the stable capital interest rate level may be an important support for the current bond market. From a medium and long-term perspective, As the economic cycle and financial cycle peak and fall, the long logic of bond interest rates will be smoother, and the trading space of bond interest rates will be further opened. On the whole, we maintain our previous judgment that the top of the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.3% has been made clear, and it is expected that the subsequent bond interest rate will continue its downward process.The contradiction between the economy and interest rates.Since the Spring Festival, although there have been negative factors such as the improvement of the global economy, rising inflation, and rising US Treasury yields, the overall recovery of the domestic bond market is consistent with our previous judgment. But on the other hand, macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in clear contrast to the recent decline in interest rates.Why does the economy deviate from interest rates?On the one hand, since March, the central bank's monetary attitude has remained stable, the capital investment has been impartial, the overall capital situation has been stable, and the enthusiasm for the allocation of the allocation disk has increased, which is beneficial to the bond market. On the other hand, combined with historical experience, investors tend to enter the market before the economic growth rate peaks and falls. Therefore, the inflection point of interest rate usually appears before the economic inflection point. Considering that the current investors' expectations for the economic growth rate peaking and falling, and inflation during the year are relatively consistent. Some investors' early entry into the market may also be one of the reasons for the current contradiction between interest rates and the economy.The bullish trend has not yet been fully released, and the downward trend in interest rates has not yet ended.From the perspective of the economic cycle, although the current fundamentals are generally stable, weak consumption and manufacturing investment are still the two major worries of the current domestic economy. If there is an absence of production capacity cycle and consumption recovery in the future, infrastructure, real estate and exports will hit The peak and fall may drive the economic cycle back to the downward trend. At the same time, from the perspective of the financial cycle, the \"tiptoe\" credit growth rate at the beginning of the year may also mean that the subsequent broad liquidity will further converge, which will also open up the downside space of the bond market.Conclusion:Macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in sharp contrast to the obvious decline in Treasury Bond's interest rates since March. Taken together, we believe that on the one hand, there are factors such as the central bank's steady and moderate money injection and stable and neutral capital allocation. On the other hand, combined with historical experience, investors tend to enter the market before the economic growth peaks and falls. Therefore, the inflection point of interest rates usually appears before the economic inflection point. Considering that the current investors' expectations of economic growth peaking and falling and inflation rising first and then falling during the year are relatively consistent, some investors' early entry may also be one of the reasons for the current contradiction between interest rates and the economy. Looking backward, we believe that the bullish factors of the current bond market have not been fully released, the economic recovery is not yet stable, and the financial cycle may also turn downward. In the short term, the stable capital interest rate level may be an important support for the current bond market. From a medium and long-term perspective, as the economic cycle and financial cycle peak and fall, the long-term logic of bond interest rates will be smoother, and the trading space of bond interest rates will be further opened. On the whole, we maintain our previous judgment that the top of the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.3% has been made clear, and subsequent bond interest rates are expected to continue their downward trend.text<h3>The Contradiction between Economy and Interest Rates</h3>Since the Spring Festival, although there have been negative factors such as the improvement of the global economy, rising inflation, and rising US Treasury yields, the overall recovery of the domestic bond market is consistent with our previous judgment.From the perspective of the bond market, since the Spring Festival, despite negative factors such as the continued improvement of overseas economy, rising global reflation, and rising US Treasury yields, the domestic bond market has strong resilience, and the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury Bond has not exceeded the upper limit of our range of 3.3%. After entering March, with the stable funding and the continuous improvement of bond market sentiment, the bond interest rate as a whole has shown a downward trend.But at the same time, it should also be noted that macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in clear contrast to the recent decline in interest rates.In terms of inflation, the national CPI fell by 0.2% year-on-year in February, a decline narrowed by 0.1 pct from the previous month, and the PPI increased by 1.7% year-on-year, a significant increase of 1.4 pcts from the previous month. Industrial inflation increased significantly. In terms of import and export, my country's export value from January to February was US $468.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.6%, significantly higher than market expectations of 41.8%, and an increase of 32.7% compared with the same period in 2019; The import value was US $365.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, significantly higher than market expectations of 10.5%, and an increase of 17.2% compared with the same period in 2019. The overall import and export boom remained high. In terms of financial data, the increase in social financing in February was 1.710 billion yuan, an increase of 839.2 billion yuan year-on-year, the highest level in the same period since 2002. In February, new RMB loans were 1.36 trillion yuan, which was also the highest level in the same period in history. In terms of economic data, industrial production continued to grow rapidly from January to February 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 35.1%. Compared with the same period in 2019, the average annual growth rate was approximately 8.1%, significantly exceeding market expectations; Investment and consumption are also in a moderate recovery process as a whole. This is in stark contrast to the downward trend of interest rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e2a1a19314ed66841839e9978e08889\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Taken together, we believe that behind the contradiction between the economy and interest rates, there are not only the factors of allocation under the stable capital situation, but also the advance layout of the economic growth rate peaking and falling.Since March 2021, the central bank's monetary attitude has remained stable, capital investment has been impartial, and the overall funding situation has been stable. Factors such as tax periods and payment standards have not driven the funding interest rate to rise significantly. Under this environment, the enthusiasm for the allocation of the allocation market has increased, the bidding results of Treasury Bond's primary market have improved, and the spot bond interest rate has shown a downward trend as a whole. At the same time, affected by the epidemic last year, domestic production and demand fell off a cliff in the first quarter. my country has successively adopted policy tools such as refinancing, rediscounting, and loan extension to strengthen financial support for the real economy. Since then, the domestic economy has begun to recover slowly. Taking into account the base factor and the policy period, the probability of a decline in GDP and a contraction in broad liquidity during the year is not low, and the market also has certain expectations for this, which may cause some investors to enter the market early before the economic growth peaks and falls, which in turn leads to a marginal downward decline in yields. Combined with historical experience, it is not without trace for investors to enter the market before the economic growth rate officially declines.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07ffe87771721686f930b6a50043e8ff\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h3>Historical view of interest rate and economic rotation: the game between reality and expectation</h3>\"Before the troops and horses move, food and grass go first.\" Historical experience shows that interest rate trends usually lead economic trends.First of all, considering that the fluctuation of year-on-year GDP growth rate has gradually converged in recent years, we use PMI to measure the warmth and coldness of the macro economy. It can be found that since 2008, the inflection point of interest rates as a whole has usually been ahead of the economic fundamentals. Specifically:From the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009, affected by the global economic crisis, the domestic economy was obviously cold. However, at that time, the market had strong expectations for infrastructure investment to support the bottom and economic growth to stabilize. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield hit 2.67% in January 2009. After a phased low, it began to rise rapidly, but at this time, domestic fundamentals were still bottoming out, and it was not until the second quarter of 2009 that domestic economic growth gradually began to bottom out.After entering 2010, the domestic economic growth slowed down at the beginning of the year but has not yet completely turned. The loose liquidity drove the spot bond interest rate to decline significantly. Entering Q2 of 2010, affected by the debt risks of Europe and emerging market countries, the global economic growth dropped significantly, and the domestic economic growth also declined significantly. At this stage, the downward inflection point of spot bond interest rate is ahead of the inflection point of economic fundamentals. In the second half of 2010, with the revision of global inflation expectations, the domestic central bank began to gradually tighten monetary policy, and the capital interest rate rose significantly. The spot bond interest rate began to rise rapidly since August.From the end of 2013 to the beginning of 2014, after half a year's rapid rise in interest rates, with the continuous easing of liquidity, the backlog of multi-party emotions was released, and the allocation force was relatively strong. The spot bond interest rate dropped rapidly from the staged high of 4.67% in November 2013 to around 4.0% in June 2014. During this period, the domestic economy was still in the upward stage, and it was not until the second half of 2014 that the domestic economic growth officially started the downward process.In the first quarter of 2018, investment in fixed assets was generally stable, exports and industrial production continued to grow rapidly, and the year-on-year GDP growth rate recorded 6.9%, up 0.1 pct from 6.8% in Q4 of 2017. The overall indication that domestic economic growth remained high, but spot bond interest rates continued to decline since the beginning of the year. After entering the second quarter, as the risk of credit default increased and broad liquidity tightened significantly, domestic economic growth began to gradually decline. At this stage, the trend of spot bond interest rate is still ahead of economic growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d532f1bc6374a6ec2008cf0f831f92c\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h3>The bullish has not yet been fully released, and the decline in interest rates has not yet ended</h3>From the perspective of the economic cycle, although the current fundamentals are generally stable, weak consumption and manufacturing investment are still the two major worries of the current domestic economy. If there is an absence of production capacity cycle and consumption recovery in the future, infrastructure, real estate and exports will hit The peak and fall may drive the economic cycle back to the downward trend.Judging from the economic data from January to February 2021, although the year-on-year growth rates of major economic sub-data have hit record highs under the influence of the base effect, if 2019 is used as the base period, it can be found that domestic economic data are roughly industrial. Production and real estate maintain a high prosperity, but the combination of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and social retail consumption recover slowly, and the overall foundation for economic recovery is still not solid. Considering that the current weakening of land acquisition by real estate companies has gradually been transmitted to the end of real estate construction, subsequent real estate investment is expected to continue to decline. Although the issuance of special bonds will provide a certain boost to infrastructure investment in the short term, considering that public finance is gradually shifting towards people's livelihood The tilt and land acquisition by real estate companies restrict the finance of local government funds, and the probability of infrastructure investment exceeding expectations is not high. Under the downward environment of infrastructure + real estate investment, although there is some room for repair of consumption + manufacturing investment, judging from the recent data performance, the repair of consumption + manufacturing still has a long way to go. In the future, if real estate + infrastructure investment weakens, and the weakening of superimposed alternative exports leads to a decline in external demand, the economic cycle may return to the downward trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c51a467daeeb19a9515eba773c7c88\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of the financial cycle, the credit growth rate turning downward after \"tiptoe\" will also open up the downside space of the bond market.Specifically, this year's government work report continues to emphasize that \"the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate\" and \"the macro leverage ratio is basically stable\". The policy direction of \"stabilizing leverage\" remains unchanged, and the financial environment remains \"tight credit\" throughout the year. Last year, the epidemic had a heavy impact on the economy, so the policy balance was biased towards \"steady growth\", and the macro leverage ratio increased by 23.6 percentage points throughout the year; This year, the constraints of the epidemic on the economy have gradually subsided, and \"risk prevention\" has once again become the primary goal, the core of which is to stabilize the macro leverage ratio. For the whole year, it is expected that the growth rate of social financing will gradually drop to 11.2%, corresponding to the macro leverage ratio at the end of this year being basically the same as that at the end of last year. The credit growth rate and social financing growth rate are expected to turn into a long-term downward trend after a short-term upward trend in February, and the downward trend of the financial cycle will also become an important positive for the subsequent bond market.<h3>conclusion</h3>Macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in sharp contrast to the obvious decline in Treasury Bond's interest rates since March. Taken together, we believe that on the one hand, there are factors such as the central bank's steady and moderate money injection and stable and neutral capital allocation. On the other hand, combined with historical experience, investors tend to enter the market before the economic growth peaks and falls. Therefore, the inflection point of interest rates usually appears before the economic inflection point. Considering that the current investors' expectations of economic growth peaking and falling and inflation rising first and then falling during the year are relatively consistent, some investors' early entry may also be one of the reasons for the current contradiction between interest rates and the economy. Looking backward, we believe that the bullish factors of the current bond market have not been fully released, the economic recovery is not yet stable, and the financial cycle may also turn downward. In the short term, the stable capital interest rate level may be an important support for the current bond market. From a medium and long-term perspective, as the economic cycle and financial cycle peak and fall, the long-term logic of bond interest rates will be smoother, and the trading space of bond interest rates will be further opened. On the whole, we maintain our previous judgment that the top of the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.3% has been made clear, and it is expected that the subsequent bond interest rate will continue its downward process.","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bond market is warming up, and the top of interest rates is clear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bond market is warming up, and the top of interest rates is clear\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-03-24 09:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCORE POINTAt present, the bullish factors of the bond market have not been fully released, and the economic recovery is not yet stable. At the same time, the financial cycle may also turn downward. In the short term, the stable capital interest rate level may be an important support for the current bond market. From a medium and long-term perspective, As the economic cycle and financial cycle peak and fall, the long logic of bond interest rates will be smoother, and the trading space of bond interest rates will be further opened. On the whole, we maintain our previous judgment that the top of the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.3% has been made clear, and it is expected that the subsequent bond interest rate will continue its downward process.The contradiction between the economy and interest rates.Since the Spring Festival, although there have been negative factors such as the improvement of the global economy, rising inflation, and rising US Treasury yields, the overall recovery of the domestic bond market is consistent with our previous judgment. But on the other hand, macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in clear contrast to the recent decline in interest rates.Why does the economy deviate from interest rates?On the one hand, since March, the central bank's monetary attitude has remained stable, the capital investment has been impartial, the overall capital situation has been stable, and the enthusiasm for the allocation of the allocation disk has increased, which is beneficial to the bond market. On the other hand, combined with historical experience, investors tend to enter the market before the economic growth rate peaks and falls. Therefore, the inflection point of interest rate usually appears before the economic inflection point. Considering that the current investors' expectations for the economic growth rate peaking and falling, and inflation during the year are relatively consistent. Some investors' early entry into the market may also be one of the reasons for the current contradiction between interest rates and the economy.The bullish trend has not yet been fully released, and the downward trend in interest rates has not yet ended.From the perspective of the economic cycle, although the current fundamentals are generally stable, weak consumption and manufacturing investment are still the two major worries of the current domestic economy. If there is an absence of production capacity cycle and consumption recovery in the future, infrastructure, real estate and exports will hit The peak and fall may drive the economic cycle back to the downward trend. At the same time, from the perspective of the financial cycle, the \"tiptoe\" credit growth rate at the beginning of the year may also mean that the subsequent broad liquidity will further converge, which will also open up the downside space of the bond market.Conclusion:Macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in sharp contrast to the obvious decline in Treasury Bond's interest rates since March. Taken together, we believe that on the one hand, there are factors such as the central bank's steady and moderate money injection and stable and neutral capital allocation. On the other hand, combined with historical experience, investors tend to enter the market before the economic growth peaks and falls. Therefore, the inflection point of interest rates usually appears before the economic inflection point. Considering that the current investors' expectations of economic growth peaking and falling and inflation rising first and then falling during the year are relatively consistent, some investors' early entry may also be one of the reasons for the current contradiction between interest rates and the economy. Looking backward, we believe that the bullish factors of the current bond market have not been fully released, the economic recovery is not yet stable, and the financial cycle may also turn downward. In the short term, the stable capital interest rate level may be an important support for the current bond market. From a medium and long-term perspective, as the economic cycle and financial cycle peak and fall, the long-term logic of bond interest rates will be smoother, and the trading space of bond interest rates will be further opened. On the whole, we maintain our previous judgment that the top of the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.3% has been made clear, and subsequent bond interest rates are expected to continue their downward trend.text<h3>The Contradiction between Economy and Interest Rates</h3>Since the Spring Festival, although there have been negative factors such as the improvement of the global economy, rising inflation, and rising US Treasury yields, the overall recovery of the domestic bond market is consistent with our previous judgment.From the perspective of the bond market, since the Spring Festival, despite negative factors such as the continued improvement of overseas economy, rising global reflation, and rising US Treasury yields, the domestic bond market has strong resilience, and the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury Bond has not exceeded the upper limit of our range of 3.3%. After entering March, with the stable funding and the continuous improvement of bond market sentiment, the bond interest rate as a whole has shown a downward trend.But at the same time, it should also be noted that macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in clear contrast to the recent decline in interest rates.In terms of inflation, the national CPI fell by 0.2% year-on-year in February, a decline narrowed by 0.1 pct from the previous month, and the PPI increased by 1.7% year-on-year, a significant increase of 1.4 pcts from the previous month. Industrial inflation increased significantly. In terms of import and export, my country's export value from January to February was US $468.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.6%, significantly higher than market expectations of 41.8%, and an increase of 32.7% compared with the same period in 2019; The import value was US $365.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, significantly higher than market expectations of 10.5%, and an increase of 17.2% compared with the same period in 2019. The overall import and export boom remained high. In terms of financial data, the increase in social financing in February was 1.710 billion yuan, an increase of 839.2 billion yuan year-on-year, the highest level in the same period since 2002. In February, new RMB loans were 1.36 trillion yuan, which was also the highest level in the same period in history. In terms of economic data, industrial production continued to grow rapidly from January to February 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 35.1%. Compared with the same period in 2019, the average annual growth rate was approximately 8.1%, significantly exceeding market expectations; Investment and consumption are also in a moderate recovery process as a whole. This is in stark contrast to the downward trend of interest rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e2a1a19314ed66841839e9978e08889\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Taken together, we believe that behind the contradiction between the economy and interest rates, there are not only the factors of allocation under the stable capital situation, but also the advance layout of the economic growth rate peaking and falling.Since March 2021, the central bank's monetary attitude has remained stable, capital investment has been impartial, and the overall funding situation has been stable. Factors such as tax periods and payment standards have not driven the funding interest rate to rise significantly. Under this environment, the enthusiasm for the allocation of the allocation market has increased, the bidding results of Treasury Bond's primary market have improved, and the spot bond interest rate has shown a downward trend as a whole. At the same time, affected by the epidemic last year, domestic production and demand fell off a cliff in the first quarter. my country has successively adopted policy tools such as refinancing, rediscounting, and loan extension to strengthen financial support for the real economy. Since then, the domestic economy has begun to recover slowly. Taking into account the base factor and the policy period, the probability of a decline in GDP and a contraction in broad liquidity during the year is not low, and the market also has certain expectations for this, which may cause some investors to enter the market early before the economic growth peaks and falls, which in turn leads to a marginal downward decline in yields. Combined with historical experience, it is not without trace for investors to enter the market before the economic growth rate officially declines.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07ffe87771721686f930b6a50043e8ff\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h3>Historical view of interest rate and economic rotation: the game between reality and expectation</h3>\"Before the troops and horses move, food and grass go first.\" Historical experience shows that interest rate trends usually lead economic trends.First of all, considering that the fluctuation of year-on-year GDP growth rate has gradually converged in recent years, we use PMI to measure the warmth and coldness of the macro economy. It can be found that since 2008, the inflection point of interest rates as a whole has usually been ahead of the economic fundamentals. Specifically:From the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009, affected by the global economic crisis, the domestic economy was obviously cold. However, at that time, the market had strong expectations for infrastructure investment to support the bottom and economic growth to stabilize. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield hit 2.67% in January 2009. After a phased low, it began to rise rapidly, but at this time, domestic fundamentals were still bottoming out, and it was not until the second quarter of 2009 that domestic economic growth gradually began to bottom out.After entering 2010, the domestic economic growth slowed down at the beginning of the year but has not yet completely turned. The loose liquidity drove the spot bond interest rate to decline significantly. Entering Q2 of 2010, affected by the debt risks of Europe and emerging market countries, the global economic growth dropped significantly, and the domestic economic growth also declined significantly. At this stage, the downward inflection point of spot bond interest rate is ahead of the inflection point of economic fundamentals. In the second half of 2010, with the revision of global inflation expectations, the domestic central bank began to gradually tighten monetary policy, and the capital interest rate rose significantly. The spot bond interest rate began to rise rapidly since August.From the end of 2013 to the beginning of 2014, after half a year's rapid rise in interest rates, with the continuous easing of liquidity, the backlog of multi-party emotions was released, and the allocation force was relatively strong. The spot bond interest rate dropped rapidly from the staged high of 4.67% in November 2013 to around 4.0% in June 2014. During this period, the domestic economy was still in the upward stage, and it was not until the second half of 2014 that the domestic economic growth officially started the downward process.In the first quarter of 2018, investment in fixed assets was generally stable, exports and industrial production continued to grow rapidly, and the year-on-year GDP growth rate recorded 6.9%, up 0.1 pct from 6.8% in Q4 of 2017. The overall indication that domestic economic growth remained high, but spot bond interest rates continued to decline since the beginning of the year. After entering the second quarter, as the risk of credit default increased and broad liquidity tightened significantly, domestic economic growth began to gradually decline. At this stage, the trend of spot bond interest rate is still ahead of economic growth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d532f1bc6374a6ec2008cf0f831f92c\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h3>The bullish has not yet been fully released, and the decline in interest rates has not yet ended</h3>From the perspective of the economic cycle, although the current fundamentals are generally stable, weak consumption and manufacturing investment are still the two major worries of the current domestic economy. If there is an absence of production capacity cycle and consumption recovery in the future, infrastructure, real estate and exports will hit The peak and fall may drive the economic cycle back to the downward trend.Judging from the economic data from January to February 2021, although the year-on-year growth rates of major economic sub-data have hit record highs under the influence of the base effect, if 2019 is used as the base period, it can be found that domestic economic data are roughly industrial. Production and real estate maintain a high prosperity, but the combination of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and social retail consumption recover slowly, and the overall foundation for economic recovery is still not solid. Considering that the current weakening of land acquisition by real estate companies has gradually been transmitted to the end of real estate construction, subsequent real estate investment is expected to continue to decline. Although the issuance of special bonds will provide a certain boost to infrastructure investment in the short term, considering that public finance is gradually shifting towards people's livelihood The tilt and land acquisition by real estate companies restrict the finance of local government funds, and the probability of infrastructure investment exceeding expectations is not high. Under the downward environment of infrastructure + real estate investment, although there is some room for repair of consumption + manufacturing investment, judging from the recent data performance, the repair of consumption + manufacturing still has a long way to go. In the future, if real estate + infrastructure investment weakens, and the weakening of superimposed alternative exports leads to a decline in external demand, the economic cycle may return to the downward trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c51a467daeeb19a9515eba773c7c88\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From the perspective of the financial cycle, the credit growth rate turning downward after \"tiptoe\" will also open up the downside space of the bond market.Specifically, this year's government work report continues to emphasize that \"the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate\" and \"the macro leverage ratio is basically stable\". The policy direction of \"stabilizing leverage\" remains unchanged, and the financial environment remains \"tight credit\" throughout the year. Last year, the epidemic had a heavy impact on the economy, so the policy balance was biased towards \"steady growth\", and the macro leverage ratio increased by 23.6 percentage points throughout the year; This year, the constraints of the epidemic on the economy have gradually subsided, and \"risk prevention\" has once again become the primary goal, the core of which is to stabilize the macro leverage ratio. For the whole year, it is expected that the growth rate of social financing will gradually drop to 11.2%, corresponding to the macro leverage ratio at the end of this year being basically the same as that at the end of last year. The credit growth rate and social financing growth rate are expected to turn into a long-term downward trend after a short-term upward trend in February, and the downward trend of the financial cycle will also become an important positive for the subsequent bond market.<h3>conclusion</h3>Macro data such as foreign trade, inflation, finance, and economic data released in March point to the current domestic economy still having a high degree of prosperity, which is in sharp contrast to the obvious decline in Treasury Bond's interest rates since March. Taken together, we believe that on the one hand, there are factors such as the central bank's steady and moderate money injection and stable and neutral capital allocation. On the other hand, combined with historical experience, investors tend to enter the market before the economic growth peaks and falls. Therefore, the inflection point of interest rates usually appears before the economic inflection point. Considering that the current investors' expectations of economic growth peaking and falling and inflation rising first and then falling during the year are relatively consistent, some investors' early entry may also be one of the reasons for the current contradiction between interest rates and the economy. Looking backward, we believe that the bullish factors of the current bond market have not been fully released, the economic recovery is not yet stable, and the financial cycle may also turn downward. In the short term, the stable capital interest rate level may be an important support for the current bond market. From a medium and long-term perspective, as the economic cycle and financial cycle peak and fall, the long-term logic of bond interest rates will be smoother, and the trading space of bond interest rates will be further opened. On the whole, we maintain our previous judgment that the top of the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 3.3% has been made clear, and it is expected that the subsequent bond interest rate will continue its downward process.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/453500\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59ac7791331afde968920a263b4ea1c","relate_stocks":{"09141":"华夏亚投债-U","03141":"华夏亚投债"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/453500","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2121370294","content_text":"核心观点\n当前债市的利多因素尚未释放完全，经济修复尚不稳固，同时金融周期也有转向下行的可能，短期来看平稳的资金利率水平或是当前债券市场的重要支撑，从中长期的视角看，随着经济周期以及金融周期的触顶回落，债券利率的做多逻辑将更为顺畅，债券利率的交易空间也将进一步打开。综合而言，我们维持此前的判断，3.3%的十年国债利率顶部已经明确，预计后续债券利率仍将延续下行进程。\n经济与利率的矛盾。春节以来，虽有全球经济改善、通胀升温、美债利率上行等利空因素，但国内债券市场整体回暖，与我们此前的判断一致。但另一方面，3月公布的外贸、通胀、金融、经济数据等宏观数据指向当前国内经济仍具有较高景气度，这与近期的利率下行形成明显对比。\n经济与利率缘何背离？一方面，3月以来央行货币态度维持稳健，资金投放不偏不倚，资金面整体平稳，配置盘的配置热情有所提高，对债市形成一定利好。另一方面，结合历史经验，投资者往往会在经济增速触顶回落之前进场布局，因此利率拐点通常先于经济拐点出现，考虑到当前投资者对经济增速触顶回落、年内通胀先上后下的预期较为一致，部分投资者提前进场布局也可能是当前利率与经济矛盾的原因之一。\n利多仍未完全释放，利率下行尚未完结。从经济周期的角度看，尽管当前基本面整体平稳，但消费、制造业投资偏弱仍是目前国内经济的两大隐忧，后续若有产能周期和消费修复的缺席，基建、地产以及出口的触顶回落或将带动经济周期重回下行。同时，从金融周期的角度看，年初信贷增速“踮脚尖”也可能意味着后续广义流动性将进一步收敛，这也将打开债市的下行空间。\n结论：3月公布的外贸、通胀、金融、经济数据等宏观数据指向当前国内经济仍具有较高景气度，这与3月以来国债利率明显下行形成鲜明对比。结合来看，我们认为这一方面有央行货币投放稳健适度、资金面平稳中性之下配置盘发力的因素，另一方面，结合历史经验，投资者往往会在经济增速触顶回落之前进场布局，因此利率拐点通常先于经济拐点出现，考虑到当前投资者对经济增速触顶回落、年内通胀先上后下的预期较为一致，部分投资者提前进场布局也可能是当前利率与经济矛盾的原因之一。向后展望，我们认为当前债市的利多因素尚未释放完全，经济修复尚不稳固，同时金融周期也有转向下行的可能，短期来看平稳的资金利率水平或是当前债券市场的重要支撑，从中长期的视角看，随着经济周期以及金融周期的触顶回落，债券利率的做多逻辑将更为顺畅，债券利率的交易空间也将进一步打开。综合而言，我们维持此前的判断，3.3%的十年国债利率顶部已经明确，后续债券利率预计仍将延续下行进程。\n正文\n经济与利率的矛盾\n春节以来，虽有全球经济改善、通胀升温、美债利率上行等利空因素，但国内债券市场整体回暖，与我们此前的判断一致。从债券市场行情来看，自春节以来，尽管有海外经济延续改善、全球再通胀升温、美债利率持续上行等利空因素，但国内债券市场韧性较强，10年期国债到期收益率并未突破我们的区间上限3.3%，进入3月后，随着资金面平稳和债市情绪的持续向好，债券利率整体呈回落态势，截至3月23日，10年期国债、国开债到期收益率分别下行7bps、14bps，与我们此前的判断一致。\n但同时也需要看到，3月公布的外贸、通胀、金融、经济数据等宏观数据指向当前国内经济仍具有较高景气度，这与近期的利率下行形成明显对比。通胀方面，2月份全国CPI同比下降0.2%，降幅较上月收窄0.1pct，PPI同比上升1.7%，较上月大幅提高1.4pcts，工业通胀明显升温。进出口方面，我国1-2 月出口金额4,688.7 亿美元，同比增长60.6%，大幅高于市场预期41.8%，较2019 年同期增长32.7%；进口金额3,656.2 亿美元，同比增长22.2%，明显高于市场预期10.5%，较2019 年同期增长17.2%，进出口整体维持高景气。金融数据方面，2月社融增量为17100亿元，同比多增8392亿元，为2002年以来同期最高水平，2月新增人民币贷款13600亿元，也为历史上的同期最高水平。经济数据方面，2021年1-2月工业生产持续高增，同比增长35.1%，相较2019年同期年均增长约8.1%，明显超出市场预期；投资、消费也整体处于温和修复进程。这与利率下行形成明显对比。\n\n结合来看，我们认为经济与利率矛盾的背后既有资金面平稳之下配置盘发力的因素，也有对经济增速触顶回落的提前布局。2021年3月以来，央行货币态度维持稳健，资金投放不偏不倚，资金面整体平稳，税期、缴准等因素并未带动资金利率明显上行。在此环境之下，配置盘的配置热情有所提高，国债一级市场招标结果向好，现券利率整体呈下行趋势。同时，去年受疫情影响，一季度国内产需断崖下行，我国相继采取再贷款、再贴现、贷款展期等政策工具以强化对实体经济的资金支持，此后国内经济开始缓慢修复。综合考虑到基数因素、政策期限，年内出现GDP度数回落、广义流动性收缩等情况的概率并不低，而市场对此也有一定的预期，这可能导致部分投资者在经济增速触顶回落之前提前进场，进而导致收益率的边际下行。而结合历史经验来看，投资者在经济增速正式回落之前进场也并非无迹可循。\n\n史观利率与经济的轮动：现实与预期的博弈\n“兵马未动，粮草先行”，历史经验表明利率走势通常领先于经济走势。首先需要说明的是，考虑到近年来GDP同比增速的波动逐渐收敛，我们用PMI来衡量宏观经济的冷暖，可以发现，自2008年以来，利率拐点整体通常领先于经济基本面走势。具体来看：\n2008年底至2009年初，受全球经济危机影响，国内经济明显遇冷，但彼时市场对基建投资发力托底与经济增长企稳的预期较为浓烈，10年国债收益率于2009年1月触及2.67%的阶段性低点后开始快速上行，但此时国内基本面却仍在探底，直至2009年二季度后国内经济增长才逐渐开始触底反弹。\n进入2010年后，年初国内经济增长有所放缓但尚未完全转向，流动性宽松带动现券利率明显下行，进入2010年Q2，受欧洲及新兴市场国家债务风险影响，全球经济增长明显回落，国内经济增长也有明显下行。在此阶段，现券利率的下行拐点要领先于经济基本面的拐点，进入2010年下半年，随着全球通胀预期的再修正，国内央行开始逐渐收紧货币政策，资金利率明显上行，现券利率自8月开始快速攀升。\n2013年底-2014年初，在经历了为时半年的利率快速上行后，随着流动性的持续宽松，积压的多方情绪有所释放，配置力量较为强劲，现券利率从2013年11月4.67%的阶段性高点快速下行至2014年6月的4.0%附近，在此期间，国内经济却仍处于上行阶段，直至2014年下半年，国内经济增长才正式开启下行进程。\n2018年1季度，固定资产投资整体平稳，出口、工业生产持续高增，GDP同比增速录得6.9%，较2017年Q4的6.8%上行0.1pct，整体表明国内经济增长维持高景气，但现券利率从年初开始持续下行。进入二季度后，随着信用违约风险升温、广义流动性明显收紧，国内经济增长也开始逐渐回落。在此阶段，现券利率走势仍领先于经济增长。\n\n利多仍未完全释放，利率下行尚未完结\n从经济周期的角度看，尽管当前基本面整体平稳，但消费、制造业投资偏弱仍是目前国内经济的两大隐忧，后续若有产能周期和消费修复的缺席，基建、地产以及出口的触顶回落或将带动经济周期重回下行。从2021年1-2月经济数据上看，尽管在基数效应影响之下，主要经济分项数据同比增速纷纷创历史新高，但若以2019年为基期，可以发现国内经济数据大致呈工业生产、地产维持高景气，但制造业投资、基建投资、社零消费恢复偏慢的组合，整体看经济恢复基础仍不牢固。考虑到当前房企拿地走弱已逐渐传导至地产开工端，后续地产投资料将延续下行，专项债发行虽将在短期内对基建投资形成一定提振，但考虑到公共财政逐渐向民生领域倾斜以及房企拿地制约地方政府性基金财政，基建投资超预期上行概率也不高。在基建+地产投资下行的环境之下，消费+制造业投资虽有一定的修复空间，但从近期的数据表现上看，消费+制造业的修复仍是任重道远。后续若有地产+基建投资走弱，叠加替代性出口弱化导致外需回落，经济周期或将重回下行。\n\n从金融周期的角度看，信贷增速“踮脚尖”后转为下行也将打开债市的下行空间。具体来看，今年政府工作报告继续强调“货币供应量和社会融资规模增速与名义经济增速基本匹配”以及“保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定”，“稳杠杆”政策方向不变，全年的金融环境依然是“紧信用”。去年疫情对经济造成沉重冲击，因此政策天平偏向于“稳增长”，全年宏观杠杆率增长23.6个百分点；今年疫情对经济的约束逐步消退，“防风险”重新成为首要目标，而其中最为核心的就是稳定宏观杠杆率。全年来看，预计社融增速将逐步降至11.2%，对应今年底宏观杠杆率与去年底基本持平，信贷增速和社融增速在2月短期上翘后预计将转为长期下行，金融周期的下行也将成为后续债市的一个重要利好。\n结论\n3月公布的外贸、通胀、金融、经济数据等宏观数据指向当前国内经济仍具有较高景气度，这与3月以来国债利率明显下行形成鲜明对比。结合来看，我们认为这一方面有央行货币投放稳健适度、资金面平稳中性之下配置盘发力的因素，另一方面，结合历史经验，投资者往往会在经济增速触顶回落之前进场布局，因此利率拐点通常先于经济拐点出现，考虑到当前投资者对经济增速触顶回落、年内通胀先上后下的预期较为一致，部分投资者提前进场布局也可能是当前利率与经济矛盾的原因之一。向后展望，我们认为当前债市的利多因素尚未释放完全，经济修复尚不稳固，同时金融周期也有转向下行的可能，短期来看平稳的资金利率水平或是当前债券市场的重要支撑，从中长期的视角看，随着经济周期以及金融周期的触顶回落，债券利率的做多逻辑将更为顺畅，债券利率的交易空间也将进一步打开。综合而言，我们维持此前的判断，3.3%的十年国债利率顶部已经明确，预计后续债券利率仍将延续下行进程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"09141":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"03141":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1471,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}