the sun also rises the moonlig

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Ikhas
2021-03-31

the sun also rises

the moonlight silvers again

When April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures

香港市场即将迎来4月初的复活节长假。根据个人经验，香港市场在“复活节”假期之后，往往会出现较大的波动，因此该月通常在我看来是一个“敏感月”，是一个尤其需要小心行事的月份。从香港4月的长假名称，也能看到4月有多令人摸不着北——先是耶稣受难日，然后又是复活节。究竟4月之后，是受难还是复活，不小心翼翼处理的话，真是很难判断。其次，和往年4月不同的是，2021年的4月增加了中概股的退市风波。

When April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":354125869,"tweetId":"354125869","gmtCreate":1617153133451,"gmtModify":1704696459687,"author":{"id":3557305548001793,"idStr":"3557305548001793","authorId":3557305548001793,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":35,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again</body></html>","text":"the sun also rises the moonlight silvers again","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354125869","repostId":1154547844,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154547844","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1617064468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154547844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-30 08:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"When April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154547844","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"香港市场即将迎来4月初的复活节长假。根据个人经验，香港市场在“复活节”假期之后，往往会出现较大的波动，因此该月通常在我看来是一个“敏感月”，是一个尤其需要小心行事的月份。从香港4月的长假名称，也能看到4月有多令人摸不着北——先是耶稣受难日，然后又是复活节。究竟4月之后，是受难还是复活，不小心翼翼处理的话，真是很难判断。其次，和往年4月不同的是，2021年的4月增加了中概股的退市风波。","content":"The Hong Kong market is about to usher in the long Easter holiday in early April. According to personal experience, after the \"Easter\" holiday, the Hong Kong market tends to fluctuate greatly, so this month is usually a \"sensitive month\" in my opinion, and it is a month that needs to be especially careful.From the name of Hong Kong's long holiday in April, we can also see how puzzling April is-first Good Friday, then Easter. It's really hard to judge whether it will be crucifixion or resurrection after April if you don't handle it carefully.Causes of sensitive monthsThere are several reasons why April is a sensitive month:First, during the long Easter holiday, it is easy to accumulate a lot of news, but it is impossible to trade. Therefore, after the holiday, it may cause trading congestion in the short term, and it is often easy to form excessive stress market under the torrent of information. At that time, the market is likely to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, depending on the specific content of the information flow at that time.Second, there is usually a saying in the Hong Kong market that \"five poor, six absolute and seven turnarounds\", that is, May and June are often months when Hong Kong stocks adjust or shrink transactions. In this case, if you use the thinking of relative performance, it is best to lighten up positions on rallies in April, or at least you should not be overly aggressive.Third, from the perspective of economic logic, because the results of the previous year are usually announced in March and will not basically end until April, usually under the whitewashing of the performance of listed companies, the market trend will not be too bad. However, after mid-April, as the performance of listed companies has been basically disclosed, the performance whitewashing effect has gradually faded. At this time, the market will show its supposed trend again.Looking through the WIND database, you will find that since 2008, looking at the monthly performance of the Hang Seng Index, April and May often show opposite trends, and the frequency of closing up in April is greater than the frequency of closing down. It's easy to understand when you think about it. Before the \"Five Poor\", large households can make a wave of pull-up actions first, and then go short with a backhand to harvest the profits on both sides.But in April 2021, will the Hang Seng Index close up again? The author feels not very optimistic. April 2021 is very different from usual, and here are all explained.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bfd16d070851ad20bf3352a6a294c9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The \"head and shoulders\" pattern cannot be ignoredFirst of all, from a technical point of view, the Hang Seng Index has formed a \"head and shoulders top\" and crossed the \"neckline\" last Tuesday (March 23). Many readers don't like to use technical indicators, especially the fundamentalist believers of \"value investing\", who are often even more disdainful of listening to technical analysis.From my experience, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are indispensable. I am doing research on the theory and practice of alternative investment. Many specific alternative assets (such as stock index futures, commodity futures, gold, and even the recently popular Bitcoin, etc.) need to be dismantled by fundamental analysis methods-for example, when analyzing Bitcoin, we should not only look at the price trend of Bitcoin, but also analyze the security, liquidity, stability and acceptance of digital currency of bit network.However, when specifically judging the price direction of the asset, it is still necessary to rely on technical analysis, especially when analyzing the market trend. Past personal experiences constantly remind me:The more efficient the market and the more liquid the financial products are, the more efficient the analysis of technical indicators is--The Hang Seng Index is such a product, so technical analysis can completely explain the behavior of the current investment group, and even has a certain forward-looking prediction effect.Speaking of \"head and shoulders\", readers who are not interested in doing technical analysis don't have to delve into it, but at least they should know that once this pattern is confirmed, there is a high probability that the market outlook of the Hang Seng Index will undergo a sharp adjustment-if it is confirmed from the \"right shoulder\" If the position falls, the position where it may fall after adjustment will start from the falling position of the right shoulder, and the fall is the vertical distance from the top (head) to the neckline (the line connecting the two shoulders). From this perspective, the Hang Seng Index is likely to fall to the 25,700 ~ 26,000 range in the next step.From a practical point of view, the head-and-shoulders pattern also means that even if Hong Kong stocks have rebounded recently, it is a good opportunity to lighten positions on rallies, rather than a good opportunity to build positions.Why do Hong Kong stocks have head and shoulders? This question is not important for technical analysis, because the premise of technical analysis is that the price already contains all the information (efficient market hypothesis). Of course, if we dig deeper, we can dig up many reasons, but this is no longer the focus of this article.By the way, although the overall technical trend of Hong Kong stocks has deteriorated, the author still does not recommend that you short Hong Kong stocks. Because there are many risk factors in short selling, it is not easy to make money, let alone something that ordinary investors can easily grasp. A while ago, Wall Street hedge funds were collectively short-squeezed, which is a good example.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df28ee4a6bd605e81928c8bcc2a42bde\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Chinese concept stock crisis will also impact Hong Kong stocksSecondly, unlike April in previous years, April 2021 has increased the delisting turmoil of Chinese concept stocks.According to the news of Hong Kong Singularity Finance on March 27th, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States were washed again last Friday (March 26th)-this is the third consecutive time in a week that the entire sector has suffered a heavy setback. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>(BIDU.O) The intraday stock price once plummeted 14.9%, reaching a low of $174.05;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.N) plunged at most 19.8% to a full-day low of $16.31 that day, down 49.4% from the record high of $32.25 just set last Tuesday. Nearly half of the market value has been erased in just a few days.Another affected stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>(IQ.O) once plummeted 27.2% to $14.6 during the session; And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>(GSX.N) was also cut in half, with the stock price hitting a low of $29.4 (the level at the end of May 2020).The culprit is the Foreign Holding Company Accountability Act (HFCA Act) passed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill requires foreign listed companies to also submit all disclosed materials and information according to the audit requirements of the United States. If foreign companies fail to comply, they will be required to delist from American exchanges.The SEC announced on March 24th that the above-mentioned bill also requires listed companies to disclose some additional sensitive information: including the percentage of shares controlled by the government of the host country, whether the government has control over the company's financial rights and interests, whether there are party members in the board of directors or operating executives of the listed company, and whether the company's articles of association are affected by the party constitution.These rules are equivalent to implementing the Foreign Companies Accountability Act signed and implemented by former US President Trump in December 2020 (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act).The relevant provisions are ostensibly aimed at all foreign companies listed in the United States, but in fact they are mainly aimed at China.Because China has not yet allowed Chinese companies to disclose audit papers to overseas audit institutions without restrictions, unless China and the United States can reach a new audit supervision cooperation agreement in the near future, many Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States may Face the risk of delisting from US exchanges.You may expect that under the suppression of the United States, more Chinese concept stock companies will return to A-shares or go public in Hong Kong, China. However, the \"secondary listing\" of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong is based on listing in the United States. If forced to delist from the United States, it is still inconclusive how the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will handle these Chinese concept stocks.However, if a Chinese concept stock company re-applies for listing in Hong Kong, China in the form of IPO, it will have to go through a lengthy listing process, which will not constitute an obvious benefit to Hong Kong stocks in the near future.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1e37c4b2e38d3609030f76c73bf81\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Pressure of macro factors on Hong Kong stocksThird, interest rate and currency issues. Another very special place in April 2021 is that the U.S. economy has shown obvious signs of recovery, the U.S. 10-year bond yield has repeatedly hit new highs, and the the US Dollar Index has also risen strongly. These two indicators are not good signs for investors outside the United States.Since 2008, investors all over the world have long been accustomed to the excessively loose liquidity environment, and now they suddenly find that liquidity is shrinking spontaneously-which is tantamount to forcing major institutions to start demanding higher returns from various assets in the market. In particular, if the US Dollar Index confirms a strong rebound, it will force investors to consider withdrawing funds from emerging markets such as Hong Kong and flow to the United States, where the currency appreciation trend is obvious.But what is more difficult to decide is that the fundamental factors so far do not support the strengthening of the US dollar-including the continued loose US monetary policy; The Fed's unprecedented broad-based quantitative easing measures; The ever-expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, etc., are soberly telling the market that it is necessary to continue to maintain the view on the depreciation of the US dollar. In this case, there is a divergence between the fundamentals and the actual price trend in the short term, which casts uncertainty on the judgment of asset prices in Hong Kong.As for U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates, the trend of 10-year bond interest rates so far mainly reflects the market's forward-looking expectations, that is, in the medium term, U.S. monetary policy is likely to change. The market's expected time for the Fed's first rate hike in the future has been advanced from 2024 to early 2023.Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. 10-year bond interest rate has steadily climbed above the 1.5% level before the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. Next, will it further rise to the 2.0% level at the end of 2019, and will this interest rate trend further drive Up the dollar? This will directly affect the direction of global investors' allocation of US dollar assets.None of the above three factors is sensitive and important. Therefore, it is suggested in April that everyone needs to be more sensitive to market information.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n秦朔朋友圈 \n2021-03-30 08:34\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Hong Kong market is about to usher in the long Easter holiday in early April. According to personal experience, after the \"Easter\" holiday, the Hong Kong market tends to fluctuate greatly, so this month is usually a \"sensitive month\" in my opinion, and it is a month that needs to be especially careful.From the name of Hong Kong's long holiday in April, we can also see how puzzling April is-first Good Friday, then Easter. It's really hard to judge whether it will be crucifixion or resurrection after April if you don't handle it carefully.Causes of sensitive monthsThere are several reasons why April is a sensitive month:First, during the long Easter holiday, it is easy to accumulate a lot of news, but it is impossible to trade. Therefore, after the holiday, it may cause trading congestion in the short term, and it is often easy to form excessive stress market under the torrent of information. At that time, the market is likely to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, depending on the specific content of the information flow at that time.Second, there is usually a saying in the Hong Kong market that \"five poor, six absolute and seven turnarounds\", that is, May and June are often months when Hong Kong stocks adjust or shrink transactions. In this case, if you use the thinking of relative performance, it is best to lighten up positions on rallies in April, or at least you should not be overly aggressive.Third, from the perspective of economic logic, because the results of the previous year are usually announced in March and will not basically end until April, usually under the whitewashing of the performance of listed companies, the market trend will not be too bad. However, after mid-April, as the performance of listed companies has been basically disclosed, the performance whitewashing effect has gradually faded. At this time, the market will show its supposed trend again.Looking through the WIND database, you will find that since 2008, looking at the monthly performance of the Hang Seng Index, April and May often show opposite trends, and the frequency of closing up in April is greater than the frequency of closing down. It's easy to understand when you think about it. Before the \"Five Poor\", large households can make a wave of pull-up actions first, and then go short with a backhand to harvest the profits on both sides.But in April 2021, will the Hang Seng Index close up again? The author feels not very optimistic. April 2021 is very different from usual, and here are all explained.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bfd16d070851ad20bf3352a6a294c9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The \"head and shoulders\" pattern cannot be ignoredFirst of all, from a technical point of view, the Hang Seng Index has formed a \"head and shoulders top\" and crossed the \"neckline\" last Tuesday (March 23). Many readers don't like to use technical indicators, especially the fundamentalist believers of \"value investing\", who are often even more disdainful of listening to technical analysis.From my experience, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are indispensable. I am doing research on the theory and practice of alternative investment. Many specific alternative assets (such as stock index futures, commodity futures, gold, and even the recently popular Bitcoin, etc.) need to be dismantled by fundamental analysis methods-for example, when analyzing Bitcoin, we should not only look at the price trend of Bitcoin, but also analyze the security, liquidity, stability and acceptance of digital currency of bit network.However, when specifically judging the price direction of the asset, it is still necessary to rely on technical analysis, especially when analyzing the market trend. Past personal experiences constantly remind me:The more efficient the market and the more liquid the financial products are, the more efficient the analysis of technical indicators is--The Hang Seng Index is such a product, so technical analysis can completely explain the behavior of the current investment group, and even has a certain forward-looking prediction effect.Speaking of \"head and shoulders\", readers who are not interested in doing technical analysis don't have to delve into it, but at least they should know that once this pattern is confirmed, there is a high probability that the market outlook of the Hang Seng Index will undergo a sharp adjustment-if it is confirmed from the \"right shoulder\" If the position falls, the position where it may fall after adjustment will start from the falling position of the right shoulder, and the fall is the vertical distance from the top (head) to the neckline (the line connecting the two shoulders). From this perspective, the Hang Seng Index is likely to fall to the 25,700 ~ 26,000 range in the next step.From a practical point of view, the head-and-shoulders pattern also means that even if Hong Kong stocks have rebounded recently, it is a good opportunity to lighten positions on rallies, rather than a good opportunity to build positions.Why do Hong Kong stocks have head and shoulders? This question is not important for technical analysis, because the premise of technical analysis is that the price already contains all the information (efficient market hypothesis). Of course, if we dig deeper, we can dig up many reasons, but this is no longer the focus of this article.By the way, although the overall technical trend of Hong Kong stocks has deteriorated, the author still does not recommend that you short Hong Kong stocks. Because there are many risk factors in short selling, it is not easy to make money, let alone something that ordinary investors can easily grasp. A while ago, Wall Street hedge funds were collectively short-squeezed, which is a good example.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df28ee4a6bd605e81928c8bcc2a42bde\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Chinese concept stock crisis will also impact Hong Kong stocksSecondly, unlike April in previous years, April 2021 has increased the delisting turmoil of Chinese concept stocks.According to the news of Hong Kong Singularity Finance on March 27th, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States were washed again last Friday (March 26th)-this is the third consecutive time in a week that the entire sector has suffered a heavy setback. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>(BIDU.O) The intraday stock price once plummeted 14.9%, reaching a low of $174.05;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.N) plunged at most 19.8% to a full-day low of $16.31 that day, down 49.4% from the record high of $32.25 just set last Tuesday. Nearly half of the market value has been erased in just a few days.Another affected stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>(IQ.O) once plummeted 27.2% to $14.6 during the session; And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>(GSX.N) was also cut in half, with the stock price hitting a low of $29.4 (the level at the end of May 2020).The culprit is the Foreign Holding Company Accountability Act (HFCA Act) passed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill requires foreign listed companies to also submit all disclosed materials and information according to the audit requirements of the United States. If foreign companies fail to comply, they will be required to delist from American exchanges.The SEC announced on March 24th that the above-mentioned bill also requires listed companies to disclose some additional sensitive information: including the percentage of shares controlled by the government of the host country, whether the government has control over the company's financial rights and interests, whether there are party members in the board of directors or operating executives of the listed company, and whether the company's articles of association are affected by the party constitution.These rules are equivalent to implementing the Foreign Companies Accountability Act signed and implemented by former US President Trump in December 2020 (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act).The relevant provisions are ostensibly aimed at all foreign companies listed in the United States, but in fact they are mainly aimed at China.Because China has not yet allowed Chinese companies to disclose audit papers to overseas audit institutions without restrictions, unless China and the United States can reach a new audit supervision cooperation agreement in the near future, many Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States may Face the risk of delisting from US exchanges.You may expect that under the suppression of the United States, more Chinese concept stock companies will return to A-shares or go public in Hong Kong, China. However, the \"secondary listing\" of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong is based on listing in the United States. If forced to delist from the United States, it is still inconclusive how the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will handle these Chinese concept stocks.However, if a Chinese concept stock company re-applies for listing in Hong Kong, China in the form of IPO, it will have to go through a lengthy listing process, which will not constitute an obvious benefit to Hong Kong stocks in the near future.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1e37c4b2e38d3609030f76c73bf81\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Pressure of macro factors on Hong Kong stocksThird, interest rate and currency issues. Another very special place in April 2021 is that the U.S. economy has shown obvious signs of recovery, the U.S. 10-year bond yield has repeatedly hit new highs, and the the US Dollar Index has also risen strongly. These two indicators are not good signs for investors outside the United States.Since 2008, investors all over the world have long been accustomed to the excessively loose liquidity environment, and now they suddenly find that liquidity is shrinking spontaneously-which is tantamount to forcing major institutions to start demanding higher returns from various assets in the market. In particular, if the US Dollar Index confirms a strong rebound, it will force investors to consider withdrawing funds from emerging markets such as Hong Kong and flow to the United States, where the currency appreciation trend is obvious.But what is more difficult to decide is that the fundamental factors so far do not support the strengthening of the US dollar-including the continued loose US monetary policy; The Fed's unprecedented broad-based quantitative easing measures; The ever-expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, etc., are soberly telling the market that it is necessary to continue to maintain the view on the depreciation of the US dollar. In this case, there is a divergence between the fundamentals and the actual price trend in the short term, which casts uncertainty on the judgment of asset prices in Hong Kong.As for U.S. Treasury Bond interest rates, the trend of 10-year bond interest rates so far mainly reflects the market's forward-looking expectations, that is, in the medium term, U.S. monetary policy is likely to change. The market's expected time for the Fed's first rate hike in the future has been advanced from 2024 to early 2023.Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. 10-year bond interest rate has steadily climbed above the 1.5% level before the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. Next, will it further rise to the 2.0% level at the end of 2019, and will this interest rate trend further drive Up the dollar? This will directly affect the direction of global investors' allocation of US dollar assets.None of the above three factors is sensitive and important. Therefore, it is suggested in April that everyone needs to be more sensitive to market information.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154547844","content_text":"香港市场即将迎来4月初的复活节长假。根据个人经验，香港市场在“复活节”假期之后，往往会出现较大的波动，因此该月通常在我看来是一个“敏感月”，是一个尤其需要小心行事的月份。\n从香港4月的长假名称，也能看到4月有多令人摸不着北——先是耶稣受难日，然后又是复活节。究竟4月之后，是受难还是复活，不小心翼翼处理的话，真是很难判断。\n敏感月成因\n说4月是敏感月，有几个原因：\n一是复活节长假，容易累积大量的消息，但却无法进行交易，因此在节后有可能会在短期内造成交易拥挤，往往容易形成信息洪流下的过度应激性行情。届时，市场很可能过于乐观，也可能过于悲观，具体还得看当时的信息流具体内容。\n二是香港市场通常有“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法，即5月和6月往往是港股调整或是成交萎缩的月份。在这种情况下，如果用相对表现的思维，4月最好是逢高减仓，至少是不应该过度进取。\n其三，从经济逻辑来看，因为通常3月开始公布上年度业绩，一直至4月才会基本上结束，通常在上市公司的业绩粉饰作用之下，市场走势不会太过恶劣。但4月中旬之后，随着上市公司的业绩基本披露完毕，业绩粉饰效果也逐步消退，这时候市场会再显本该有的走向。\n翻查WIND数据库就会发现，从2008年以来，看恒指的月度表现，4月与5月经常是呈现相反的走势，而且4月全月收涨的频率大于收跌的频率。想来也好理解，“五穷”之前，大户可以先来一波拉升的动作，然后才反手做空，两边收割收益。\n但是2021年的4月，恒指是否会再现收涨？笔者却觉得不太乐观。2021年的4月和往常有很大的不同，这里一一说明。\n\n“头肩顶”形态不容忽视\n首先是从技术上看，恒指已经形成“头肩顶”，并且在上周二（3月23日）下穿了“颈线”。很多读者不喜欢用技术指标，特别是“价值投资”的原教旨信徒，往往更不屑于听从技术分析。\n就本人的经验来说，基本面分析与技术面分析是缺一不可的。本人做的是另类投资理论与实践研究，很多具体的另类资产（比如股指期货、商品期货、黄金、甚至近期流行的比特币等）需要用基本面分析方法来拆解——比如在分析比特币的时候，不能只看比特币的价格走势，还要分析比特网络的安全性、流动性、稳定性以及数字货币被接受的程度等。\n但在具体判断该资产的价格方向时，还是得需要借助技术分析，在分析市场走向时尤其如此。过往亲身经历的案例不断提醒我：越是有效的市场，越是流动性强的金融产品，其技术指标分析就越是有效——恒指正是这样的一个产品，所以用技术分析完全可以解释当下投资群体的行为，甚至有一定的前瞻预测作用。\n说回“头肩顶”，没有兴趣做技术分析的读者可以不必深究，但至少要知道，一旦确认了这个形态，恒指的后市走向大概率会出现大幅调整——如果确认从“右肩”位置下跌，其调整后可能跌落的位置，会是从右肩下跌位置开始算起，幅跌是顶部（头部）到颈线（连接两个肩膀的线）的垂直距离。从这个角度来说，恒指下一步大概率要跌至25700～26000区间。\n就实践角度来说，头肩顶的形态也意味着，即便近期港股有所反弹，也是逢高减仓的好机会，而不是建仓的良机。\n港股为什么会出现头肩顶？这个问题对于技术分析来说并不重要，因为技术分析的前提就是价格已经包含了所有的信息（有效市场假说）。当然，如果深究下去，我们可以挖出很多原因，但这已经不是本文的重点了。\n顺便提一句，虽然港股整体技术走势转差，但笔者还是不建议大家做空港股。因为做空有诸多风险因素，并不容易赚钱，更不是普通投资者可以轻易掌握的。前阵子华尔街对冲基金被集体轧空仓，就是一个很好的例子。\n\n中概股危机也将冲击港股\n其次，和往年4月不同的是，2021年的4月增加了中概股的退市风波。\n根据香港奇点财经3月27日的消息，在美国上市的中国概念股于上周五（3月26日）再遭洗仓——这已是一周内连续第三次整个板块出现重挫。其中，百度（BIDU.O）盘中股价一度急泻14.9%，最低见174.05美元；腾讯音乐（TME.N）当天最多重挫19.8%至全日低位16.31美元，较上周二刚刚创下的历史新高32.25美元滑落49.4%，短短数日市值已经被抹去近半。\n另一受灾股爱奇艺（IQ.O）盘中一度急降27.2%至14.6美元；而跟谁学（GSX.N）也被腰斩，股价最低触及29.4美元（2020年5月底的水平）。\n罪魁祸首是美国证监会（SEC）通过的《外国控股公司责任法案》（HFCA Act）。该法案要求外国上市公司也要根据美国的审计要求，提交所有该披露的材料和信息，如果外国公司不遵守，将被要求从美国交易所退市。\nSEC3月24日公布，上述法案还要求上市公司额外披露一些敏感信息：包括所在国政府控制的股份百分比、政府是否对公司的财务权益有控制权、上市公司董事会或经营高管中是否有党员、公司章程是否受党章影响等。\n这些规则相当于执行了美前任总统特朗普在2020年12月签署落实的《外国公司问责法案（Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act）》。\n有关条款，表面上是针对所有在美国挂牌的外国公司，但实际上主要针对中国。因为中国目前尚未允许中国企业将审计底稿不受限制地向境外审计机构予以披露，因此除非中美双方能在近期达成新的审计监管合作协议，否则在美上市的众多中概股，均可能将面临美国交易所除牌的风险。\n大家可能会憧憬，在美国的打压之下，将有更多中概股公司回A股或去中国香港上市，但是香港的中概股“第二上市”是以在美国上市为前提的，如果被迫从美国退市，港交所会如何处理这些中概股，目前还未见定论。\n而如果中概股公司以IPO形式重新申请在中国香港上市，则要走冗长的上市流程，这对近期港股并不构成明显的利好。\n\n宏观因素对港股的压力\n其三，利率与货币问题。2021年4月还有一个非常特殊的地方，就是美国的经济出现较明显的复苏迹象，美国10年期债券收益率屡创新高，美元指数也强劲上扬。而这两个指标，对于美国以外的投资者来说，都不是好现象。\n自2008年以来，全球的投资者早已习惯了过度宽松的流动性环境，现在突然发现流动性在自发地收缩——这无异于逼迫各大机构开始向市场上的各种资产索取更高的收益。特别是美元指数如果确认出现强劲反弹，更会逼迫投资者考虑，将资金从香港等新兴市场撤出，流向货币升值趋势明显的美国。\n但是比较难以决断的是，迄今为止的基本面因素都不支持美元走强——包括持续宽松的美国货币政策；美联储前所未有的广泛量化宽松措施；不断扩大的美国财政赤字等，这些都在清醒地告诉巿场，有必要继续维持对美元贬值的看法。在这种情况下，基本面和短期内的实际价格走势出现了背离，这为判断香港的资产价格投下了不确定性。\n至于美国国债利率，迄今为止的10年债息走势，主要体现出市场前瞻性的预期，即认为中期而言，美国的货币政策很有可能会出现变化。市场对美联储未来首次加息的预期时间点，已经从2024年，提前至2023年初。\n今年以来，美国10年债息已经稳稳地攀升至2020年初疫情暴发前1.5%水平上方，接下来，它是否会进一步上涨至2019年底的2.0%水平，以及，这种利率走势是否会进一步驱升美元升势？这会直接关系到全球投资者对于美元资产配置的方向。\n上述三个因素，没有一个不是敏感而重要的，因此，4月份建议大家需要更为敏感地应对市场信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2074,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":39,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}